2025年7月13日 证券研究报告 | ESG热点周聚焦（7月第2期） 创业板综指引入ESG负向剔除机制 策略研究 · 策略专题 证券分析师：王开 证券分析师：陈凯畅 021-60933132 021-60375429 wangkai8@guosen.com.cn chenkaichang@guosen.com.cn S0980521030001 S0980523090002 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 核心观点 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 ◼ 海外ESG热点事件：在绿色金融、碳中和、企业治理与环境保护四条主线上，政策、市场、技术协同发力，助力全球能源结构转型与气候应对。绿色 金融方面，沃旭能源完成中国台湾大彰化海上风电27.5亿美元项目融资，获25家银行及5家出口信贷机构支持；加州社区选择融资局即将发行10亿美 元30年期绿色债券，用于圣地亚哥社区电力清洁能源供应；英国与日本住友商事达成75亿英镑（约100亿美元）清洁能源投资协议，重点投向海上风 电与氢能；欧盟委员会发布非正式指南，为港口电动集装箱设备联合采购提供竞争法合规路径，加速柴油设备替换。碳中和与减排方面，Mic ...

Core Viewpoints - The mechanical industry is expected to outperform the market, with a focus on high-quality leading companies and structural growth opportunities [15][5][24] - The industry is undergoing a transformation driven by domestic upgrades, self-sufficiency, and accelerated overseas development [15][20] Industry Overview and Outlook - The core equipment localization is fundamental for the rise of the industry, breaking through bottlenecks in high-end equipment is essential for true autonomy and industrialization [15] - The trend of industrial upgrading is inevitable, with advancements in digitalization and energy transformation enhancing social efficiency and reducing costs [15] - The development of exports is transitioning from point to surface, with competitive manufacturing enterprises moving from import substitution to export substitution [15] Investment Strategy - The report recommends focusing on emerging growth sectors and export-driven leading companies, particularly in areas such as humanoid robots, AI infrastructure, and coal chemical equipment [25][26] - Key recommended stocks include Huace Testing, Guodian Measurement, and Yizhiming, among others [24][2] Key Recommendations - The report highlights specific companies for investment, including: - Humanoid Robots: Hengli Hydraulic, Huichuan Technology, and Zhenyu Technology [26] - AI Infrastructure: Yingliu Technology and Haomai Technology [28] - Engineering Machinery: Hengli Hydraulic, XCMG, and Sany Heavy Industry [29] - Nuclear Power Equipment: Jiadian Co., Zhongmi Holdings, and Jiangsu Shentong [29] - General Equipment: Huichuan Technology, Green Harmonic, and Baichu Electronics [29] Performance Tracking - In June, the mechanical industry index rose by 2.82%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.32 percentage points, with stable valuation levels [6][11] - The manufacturing PMI index for June was reported at 49.70%, indicating a slight improvement [6][12] Financial Projections - The report provides forecasts for key companies, indicating resilience in operations, with expected revenue and profit growth across various sectors [31] - For example, Hengli Hydraulic is projected to achieve a revenue of 27.68 billion yuan in Q2 2025, with a net profit of 7.96 billion yuan [31]

Core Insights - The key to understanding the capital cycle is recognizing how changes in capital allocation within an industry affect future returns, emphasizing the importance of supply-side changes over demand analysis [3] - Industry concentration exhibits an inverted U-shaped distribution throughout different stages of the corporate lifecycle, transitioning from high competition to oligopoly, with dividend yields increasing as companies evolve from recovery to maturity [3] - Current recommended secondary industries include aquaculture, animal health, components, consumer electronics, communication services, advertising, television broadcasting, real estate services, shipping ports, logistics, and railroads [3] Section Summaries 01 Capital Cycle: Supply and Concentration Considerations - The capital cycle framework prioritizes supply and concentration changes over economic conditions, indicating that supply fluctuations drive industry profitability [4] 02 Historical Positioning of Capital Cycles in Sub-Industries - The report categorizes 124 sub-industries based on their capital cycle status from Q3 2008 to Q1 2025, using concentration, profit growth, and capital expenditure growth as key indicators [27] 03 Current Capital Cycle Stages of Various Industries - The analysis identifies industries in optimal or suboptimal capital cycle phases, allowing for targeted investment recommendations [39] 04 Capital Cycle Principles and Case Studies in the US and Japan - The report discusses the principles of capital cycles in the US and Japan, providing case studies that illustrate the application of these principles across different market environments [4] 05 Viewing Capital Cycles Through the Lens of "Anti-Overwork" - The report suggests that the current economic environment, characterized by a push against overwork, influences capital allocation and industry dynamics [4]

Group 1: High-tech Manufacturing Index - The Guosen weekly high-tech manufacturing diffusion index A recorded 0.2, while index B was at 51.0, indicating a slight recovery compared to the previous period[1] - The price of dynamic random access memory (DRAM) increased to $1.4490, up by $0.031 from last week[3] - The price of 6-amino penicillanic acid rose to 230 RMB/kg, an increase of 50 RMB/kg from the previous week[3] Group 2: Market Trends and Economic Indicators - Fixed asset investment cumulative year-on-year growth was reported at 3.70%[2] - The total retail sales year-on-year growth for the month was 6.40%[2] - The month-on-month export growth was 4.80%[2] Group 3: Industry Insights - The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate decreased to 50,500 RMB/ton, down by 1,200 RMB/ton from last week, indicating a decline in the new energy sector's prosperity[3] - The price of acrylonitrile remained stable at 8,200 RMB/ton, showing no change from the previous week[3] - The price index for electronic products in Zhongguancun remained unchanged, indicating stable conditions in the aerospace and computer industries[1] Group 4: Policy and Development - A new action plan for measuring support for industrial productivity development from 2025 to 2030 was issued, focusing on ten key industries including AI and aerospace[4] - The launch of the WebSailor intelligent agent by Alibaba Tongyi demonstrates advancements in AI capabilities, surpassing several closed-source models[4]

证券研究报告 | 2025年07月13日 债市阿尔法追踪 6 月：债市普遍上涨，超长债涨势突出 主要结论：不考虑票息收益，行业维度来看，交运行业债券净价涨幅靠前， 单月上涨 0.12%，存在一定的α。期限维度来看，6 月 10 年期以上国债和地 方政府债存在正α。次级维度来看，6 月商业银行次级债存在明显阿尔法。 6 月各品种收益率全景：6 月债市普遍上涨。利率债方面，6 月全部利率债收 益率下行，国债、国开债和地方政府债收益率平均下行 7BP、5BP 和 5BP。信 用债方面，几乎全部信用债品种收益率下行，其中 20 年期、隐含评级 AA+ 城投债收益率平均下行 17BP，为信用债下行幅度最大的品种。 行业阿尔法追踪：行业维度来看，6 月全部行业信用债上涨，平均净价涨跌 幅为 0.07%，其中交运行业债券净价涨幅靠前，单月上涨 0.12%，存在一定 的α。城投债和地产债平均净价上涨 0.03%，为涨幅相对较小的行业。 期限阿尔法追踪：6 月 10 年期以上国债和地方政府债存在正α。数据显示， 6 月 10 年以上国债上涨 1.1%、地方政府债上涨 0.93%，涨幅显著超过其他利 率债品种。其原因主要是超长利 ...

港股市场速览 优于大市 资金显著流入金融，制造业持续交易反内卷 股价表现：市场窄幅震荡，制造业表现领先 本周，恒生指数涨 0.9%，恒生科技涨 0.6%。风格方面，小盘（恒生小型股 +2.6%）＞中盘（恒生中型股+1.5%）＞大盘（恒生大型股+0.9%）。 概念指数多数上涨，表现领先的有：恒生金融（+2.2%）、恒生汽车（+2.1%）； 表现较弱的有：恒生公用事业（-1.3%）、恒生创新药（-0.7%）。 港股通行业中，25 个行业上涨，5 个行业下跌。涨幅居前的有：轻工制造 （+8.3%）、国防军工（+8.2%）、钢铁（+6.3%）、电力设备及新能源（+5.9%）、 农林牧渔（+5.2%）；下跌的有：有色金属（-4.0%）、纺织服装（-2.7%）、 食品饮料（-1.1%）、基础化工（-0.3%）、商贸零售（-0.2%）。 证券研究报告 | 2025年07月13日 资金强度：资金显著流入金融、互联网与房地产 本周，资金显著流入港股通成分股，总体日均资金强度（日均涨跌 x 日均 成交量）为+20.5 亿港元/日，上周为+4.8 亿港元/日，近 4 周平均为+7.2 亿 港元/日；近 13 周为+4.3 亿港元/ ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Weaker than Market" investment rating for the U.S. stock market [1] Core Insights - The U.S. stock market experienced narrow fluctuations with most sectors declining, as the S&P 500 fell by 0.3% and the Nasdaq by 0.1% [3] - There were 8 sectors that increased while 16 sectors decreased, with notable gains in Energy (+2.6%), Semiconductor Products and Equipment (+2.4%), and Transportation (+1.2%) [3] - Conversely, sectors that saw significant declines included Telecommunications (-4.8%), Insurance (-2.6%), and Banks (-2.5%) [3] Summary by Sections Market Overview - The S&P 500's estimated fund flow was -$5.7 billion this week, a decrease from the previous week's +$23.4 billion, with a total of +$216.4 billion over the last 13 weeks [4] - Fund inflows were observed in 11 sectors, with Semiconductor Products and Equipment leading at +$17.2 billion, followed by Transportation (+$6.0 billion) and Energy (+$4.1 billion) [4] - Sectors experiencing fund outflows included Software and Services (-$15.9 billion) and Automotive and Parts (-$8.2 billion) [4] Earnings Forecast - The dynamic F12M EPS forecast for S&P 500 constituents was adjusted upward by 0.3%, following a 0.2% increase the previous week [5] - Earnings expectations were raised for 21 sectors, with the highest adjustments in Integrated Finance (+0.8%), Automotive and Parts (+0.8%), and Semiconductor Products and Equipment (+0.8%) [5] - Three sectors saw downward revisions, notably Healthcare Equipment and Services (-1.0%) and Telecommunications (-0.2%) [5] Price Performance - The Energy sector recorded a price return of +2.6% this week, while the Telecommunications sector saw a decline of -4.8% [15] - Over the past 52 weeks, the Energy sector has increased by 5.1%, while the Telecommunications sector has decreased by 4.0% [15] - The Semiconductor Products and Equipment sector has shown a remarkable increase of +48.0% over the past 13 weeks [15] Fund Flow Analysis - The Industrial sector led with a net fund inflow of $781 million this week, followed by Energy with $409 million [19] - The Semiconductor Products and Equipment sector also saw significant inflows of $1.716 billion, indicating strong investor interest [19] - In contrast, the Software and Services sector experienced the largest outflow of -$1.594 billion [19]

Global Market Overview - The global equity markets showed mixed performance with moderate valuation changes during the week of July 7-11, 2025. The Asia-Pacific region experienced significant divergence, with South Korea leading gains and India lagging behind. Japan saw a slight decline, while Singapore and Hong Kong indices rose [2][8] - In terms of valuation, the German DAX's PE ratio expanded by 1.65x, approaching historical highs, while the French CAC40 increased by 1.73% but saw a PE decrease of 0.64x, indicating earnings upgrades. Other indices in Hong Kong, except for the Hang Seng Technology Index, maintained high valuation levels [2][8] A-share Market Analysis - The A-share core indices mostly rose with moderate valuation expansion. The CSI 1000 and National CSI 2000 led the gains with increases of 2.36% and 2.29%, respectively. Small-cap stocks outperformed, with various small-cap indices rising over 2%. The large-cap value index slightly declined due to bank sector pressures [21][22] - As of July 11, 2025, the PE, PB, PS ratios of major A-share indices were positioned between the 96%-100% percentile for the past year, while the PCF ratio was between 90%-93%. Overall, large-cap growth indices showed superior percentile levels compared to large-cap value indices [22][23] Industry Performance - Most primary industries experienced gains with moderate valuation expansions. The real estate sector led with a 6.12% increase, followed by non-bank financials at 3.96%. The banking sector saw a slight decline of 1%. Other sectors like steel and building materials continued their upward trend [42][44] - Valuation changes were generally consistent with stock price movements, with the PE of computing and real estate sectors expanding by over 2x, while steel, media, and comprehensive sectors saw PE expansions exceeding 1x [42][44] Valuation Comparisons - The essential consumer sector demonstrated superior valuation attractiveness. The banking sector's valuations are at historical highs, with PE, PB, and PS ratios nearing 100% in both 1-year and 3-year dimensions. In contrast, essential consumer sectors like food and beverage, and agriculture show significant valuation recovery potential, with 3-year/5-year average valuation percentiles at 11.13% / 6.68% and 27.20% / 19.14%, respectively [44]

请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 证券研究报告 | 2025年7月12日 锂电产业链双周评（7月第1期） 欧洲新能源车需求持续复苏，固态电池产业发展快速推进 行业研究 · 行业周报 电力设备新能源 · 锂电池 投资评级：优于大市（维持） 证券分析师：王蔚祺 010-88005313 wangweiqi2@guosen.com.cn S0980520080003 证券分析师：徐文辉 021-60375426 xuwenhui@guosen.com.cn S0980524030001 证券分析师：李全 021-60375434 liquan2@guosen.com.cn S0980524070002 投资建议 【行业动态】 【新能源车产业链数据】 【投资建议】 • 建议关注：1）低空经济与机器人产业布局领先企业（卧龙电驱、宁德时代、亿纬锂能、蔚蓝锂芯、科达利）；2）固态电池材料布局领先企业（厦钨新能、容百科技、当升科技、天奈科 技）；3）需求持续回暖的消费电池企业（珠海冠宇、豪鹏科技）；4）充电桩行业领先企业（特锐德、盛弘股份）；5）电动自行车铅酸电池领军企业（天能股份）；6）高压直流继电器 领先企业 ...

港股精选组合年内上涨 43.22%，相对恒生指数超额 22.88% 核心观点 金融工程周报 港股精选组合绩效回顾 本周，港股精选组合绝对收益 1.35%，相对恒生指数超额收益 0.42%。 本年，港股精选组合绝对收益 43.22%，相对恒生指数超额收益 22.88%。 港股市场创新高热点板块跟踪 我们根据分析师关注度、股价相对强弱、股价路径平稳性、创新高连续性等 角度在过去 20 个交易日创出过 250 日新高的股票池中筛选出平稳创新高股 票。 证券研究报告 | 2025年07月12日 港股投资周报 近期，国泰海通等股票平稳创出新高。 按照板块来看，创新高股票数量最多的是大金融板块，其次为医药、消费、 科技和周期板块，具体个股信息可参照正文。高股票数量最多的是消费，其 次为医药、科技、大金融、周期和制造板块，具体个股信息可参见正文。 港股市场一周回顾 宽基指数方面，本周恒生小型股指数收益最高，累计收益 2.59%；恒生科技 指数收益最低，累计收益 0.62%。 行业指数方面，本周工业行业收益最高，累计收益 3.30%；原材料业行业收 益最低，累计收益-4.18%。 概念板块方面，本周本地券商概念板块收益最高， ...