证券研究报告 | 2025年12月15日 制造成长周报（第 38 期） 优于大市 智元第 5000 台机器人正式下线，GEV 再度上修燃机订单指引 与扩产规划 重点事件点评&重点关注：人形机器人、AI 基建 事件 1-智元第 5000 台通用具身机器人正式下线：2025 年 12 月 8 日，智 元机器人累计下线通用具身机器人 5000 台。 事件 2-GEV 上修燃机订单指引与扩产规划：2025 年 12 月9 日，GEV 召开 2025 年投资者大会，公司预计 2025 年底积压订单+预留协议将达到 80W，同时宣 布 2026 年中产能达 20GW，2028 年产能扩充至 24GW。 人形机器人点评：智元机器人第 5000 台通用具身机器人下线表明产业量产 不断推进，规模量产将加速到来。我们持续看好人形机器人的长期投资机会， 建议从价值量和卡位上把握空间&确定性，从股票弹性上寻找增量环节。1） 确定性：特斯拉产业链核心供应商或者实力强、卡位好的公司，重点关注【飞 荣达】【龙溪股份】【唯万密封】【恒立液压】【汇川技术】【绿的谐波】 【蓝思科技】【五洲新春】；2）弹性：重视基本结构研究逐步拓展至完整 功能结 ...

Interest Rate Changes - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point rate cut, lowering the federal funds rate target range from 4.00%-4.25% to 3.75%-3.50%[2] - The decision reflects a shift to a neutral monetary policy stance, with the committee indicating that the banking system's reserve levels are now adequate[4] Economic Outlook - The Fed raised its GDP growth forecast for 2025 to 1.7% and for 2026 to 2.3%, suggesting a baseline scenario of a soft landing for the U.S. economy[14] - Unemployment is projected to gradually decrease from the current rate of 4.5% to 4.2% by 2028, indicating a stable labor market despite recent cooling[17] Inflation and Employment - Inflation has risen since early this year but remains somewhat elevated, with the core PCE inflation forecast adjusted down to 2.5% for 2026[17] - Employment growth has slowed, with the unemployment rate slightly increasing, reflecting concerns about job market stability[4] Internal Disagreements - There is significant internal division within the FOMC, with three dissenting votes during the recent meeting, the highest level of disagreement since 2019[5] - The distribution of rate expectations in the dot plot has become more dispersed, indicating increasing uncertainty among committee members regarding future policy directions[5] Balance Sheet Management - The Fed will restart short-term Treasury purchases at an initial pace of approximately $40 billion per month to maintain adequate liquidity in the banking system[6] - This action is characterized as a technical operation, distinct from broader monetary policy adjustments[6] Future Rate Cuts - The Fed is expected to implement two additional rate cuts in 2026, likely in March and July, influenced by upcoming changes in FOMC leadership and potential political motivations[9] - The anticipated new chair, Hassett, may align with political pressures for earlier rate cuts, although significant caution is expected in the approach[10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform the Market" rating for the food and beverage sector [4][5][10]. Core Views - The food and beverage sector is expected to see a recovery in consumer scenarios, with a stable price expectation for Moutai [1][3]. - The sector is entering a left-side layout phase, with high-quality companies expected to gain greater growth potential [2][10]. - The report highlights the differentiation in the fundamentals of various categories, with beverages outperforming food and alcohol [2][10]. Summary by Relevant Sections 1. Sector Overview - The food and beverage sector experienced a cumulative decline of 1.52% this week, with A-shares down 1.63% and H-shares up 0.07% [1]. - The top five gainers in the food and beverage sector this week were Yanjinpuzi (5.11%), Huikaishan (4.85%), New Dairy (3.22%), Chenguang Biological (3.09%), and Anji Food (3.08%) [1]. 2. Alcohol Sector - In the liquor segment, the report recommends focusing on leading companies like Luzhou Laojiao, Shanxi Fenjiu, Guizhou Moutai, and Yingjia Gongjiu, while also monitoring the reform pace of Wuliangye and Yanghe [2][10]. - The report notes that the current market is in a left-side layout phase, with positive signals expected from both demand and supply sides [10]. 3. Beverage Sector - The beverage industry is experiencing a sustained boom, with leading companies significantly outperforming the market [14]. - Recommendations include Nongfu Spring and Dongpeng Beverage, which are accelerating their national and platform expansion [14]. 4. Food Sector - The snack segment is advised to focus on strong alpha stocks, particularly in the konjac snack category, where leading companies like Weilong and Yanjinpuzi show strong competitive advantages [11][12]. - The restaurant supply chain is showing signs of stabilization, with recommendations for leading companies like Yihai International and Haitian Flavoring [12]. 5. Earnings Forecasts and Investment Ratings - Key companies such as Guizhou Moutai, Nongfu Spring, Wuliangye, Shanxi Fenjiu, and Luzhou Laojiao are rated as "Outperform the Market" with projected earnings per share (EPS) growth for 2025 and 2026 [4][10]. - The report provides detailed earnings forecasts for these companies, indicating a positive outlook for the sector [4][15].

证券研究报告 | 2025年12月15日 美国 12 月 FOMC 会议点评 中性降息落地，技术性扩表重启 经济研究·宏观快评 | 证券分析师： | 田地 | 0755-81982035 | tiandi2@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980524090003 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | 邵兴宇 | 010-88005483 | shaoxingyu@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980523070001 | | 证券分析师： | 董德志 | 021-60933158 | dongdz@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980513100001 | 评论： 图1：12 月 FOMC 会议决议声明要点梳理 | 维度 | 2025. 12 | 2025. 10 | 2025.09 | 2025. 07 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 3.5%至3.75%的目标区间 | | | | | | 将联邦基金利率下调1/4个百分点, ਵ | 将联邦基金利率调至3.75%至4 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the context of volatile equity markets, "Fixed Income +" products are favored by residents for wealth management in 2025. The new "Fixed Income +" products with "+ Fund" can diversify risks and balance risk - return more flexibly. The evolution of "Fixed Income +" is inevitable, and "+ Fund" practice is an imaginative part of this evolution [12] 3. Summary by Directory + Fund Policy and Regulation Highlights - Non - FOF funds investing in public funds must follow public fund holding rules, including specifying investment scope, asset ratio cap, and investment strategies in the fund contract. Existing regulations allow Fixed Income + funds to allocate securities investment funds, and valuation methods have been explored by FOF funds [13][15] Product Practice of Fixed Income + Funds Allocating Funds - Among "Fixed Income +" funds, partial - debt hybrid and second - tier bond funds are at the forefront of "+ Fund". Currently, 143 funds have public securities investment funds in their investment scope, all being these two types. The investment ratio limit for funds is ≤10%, and most products have specific constraints on investable targets [16][19] + Fund: Parallel Development of Active and Passive Funds - Generally, funds are divided into active and passive types. Passive funds are selected based on investment clock style, industry rotation, etc. Active funds are evaluated from quantitative (e.g., style stability, risk - return effectiveness) and qualitative (e.g., fund manager and management company) aspects [21] Broad - based and Industry ETFs are Highly Favored - As of Q3 2025, 47 out of 143 products with funds in the investment scope actually hold funds, with a total holding scale of 3.418 billion yuan. Red - chip funds are the most common choice among heavy - holding funds, and among broad - based indices, the Sci - tech Innovation and CSI 300 indices appear most frequently. Fixed Income + funds have a significantly higher proportion of ETF allocation compared to FOF funds [2][26][30] Performance Analysis of High - performing "Fixed Income +" Products with + Fund - Fund A has an asset value of 7.884 billion yuan, with a 2022 - 2025 net value return of 0%/ - 5%/7%/5% and a 2025 maximum drawdown of - 4%. It focuses on advantageous industries and has a concentrated quarterly position. Fund B has an asset value of 12.903 billion yuan, with a 2022 - 2025 net value return of 0%/1%/7%/6% and a 2025 maximum drawdown of - 2%. It has a balanced industry allocation and closely follows market hotspots [3][35][42] Feasibility Analysis of + Fund Advantages of Allocating Funds Instead of Individual Stocks/Bonds - Advantages include stronger availability of chips, wider access to assets, smoother transfer of top - down research ideas, more stable product net value fluctuations, and risk hedging with pure - debt positions [51] Disadvantages of Allocating Funds Instead of Individual Stocks/Bonds - The main disadvantage is limited offensive sharpness. When being optimistic about a market segment, there may not be a corresponding fund product [52] Discussion on the Choice between Active and Passive Funds - For industries with insignificant β but prominent α of some companies, subjective efforts are needed to select investment targets. Excellent subjective fund managers may outperform industry ETFs, and ETFs are better than non - professional investors directly investing in individual stocks. Fixed Income + funds can achieve a "pure - debt + thematic fund" product core through "+ Fund" investment [53]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the public utilities and environmental protection sectors [5][7]. Core Views - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the construction of an "Energy Power" and the development of hydrogen and fusion energy industries [3][18]. - The central economic work conference highlighted the need for a comprehensive green transition and the establishment of a new energy system [2][16]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.08%, while the public utilities index decreased by 0.09% and the environmental index dropped by 0.61% [1][15]. - In the electricity sector, thermal power increased by 0.22%, while hydropower decreased by 0.26%, and renewable energy generation rose by 0.93% [1][28]. Important Events - The central economic work conference took place on December 10-11, focusing on energy security and the establishment of a carbon trading market [2][16]. - Yunnan province announced an increase in coal power capacity pricing to 330 RMB per kilowatt per year starting in 2026 [17]. Investment Strategy - Public Utilities: Recommendations include major thermal power companies like Huadian International and Shanghai Electric, as well as leading renewable energy firms such as Longyuan Power and Three Gorges Energy [4][25]. - Environmental Protection: Focus on mature sectors like water and waste incineration, with recommendations for companies like China Everbright Environment and Zhongshan Public Utilities [26]. Key Company Earnings Forecasts - The report provides earnings forecasts for various companies, maintaining an "Outperform" rating for firms such as China Nuclear Power and China General Nuclear Power [7][8]. Industry Dynamics - The report discusses the transition from an "energy power" to an "energy strong country," emphasizing supply security, ecological low-carbon initiatives, and technological innovation [3][19][22].

证券研究报告 | 2025年12月14日 2025年12月15日 可交换私募债跟踪 私募 EB 每周跟踪（20251208-20251212） 固定收益快评 | 证券分析师： | 王艺熹 | 021-60893204 | wangyixi@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980522100006 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | 吴越 | 021-60375496 | wuyue8@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980525080001 | | 证券分析师： | 赵婧 | 0755-22940745 | zhaojing@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980513080004 | 我们定期梳理从公开渠道可获得的最新的可交换私募债（私募 EB）项目情况，对私募可交换债项目做基本 要素跟踪，私募发行条款发行过程可能有更改，请以最终募集说明书为准，发行进度请与相关主承销商咨 询。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 1 本周新增项目信息如下：（部分项目因合规原因未予列示） 1. 江苏国泰国际集团股份有限公 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform the Market" rating for the food and beverage sector [4][5][10]. Core Views - The food and beverage sector is expected to see a recovery in consumer scenarios, with a stable price expectation for Moutai [1][3]. - The sector is entering a left-side layout phase, with high-quality companies expected to gain greater growth potential [2][10]. - The report highlights the differentiation in the fundamentals of various categories, with beverages outperforming food and alcohol [2][10]. Summary by Relevant Sections 1. Sector Overview - The food and beverage sector (A-shares and H-shares) experienced a cumulative decline of 1.52% this week, with A-shares down 1.63% and H-shares up 0.07% [1]. - The top five gainers in the food and beverage sector this week were Yanjinpuzi (5.11%), Kuaijishan (4.85%), New Dairy (3.22%), Chenguang Biological (3.09%), and Anji Food (3.08%) [1]. 2. Alcohol Sector - In the liquor segment, the report recommends focusing on leading companies like Luzhou Laojiao, Shanxi Fenjiu, Guizhou Moutai, and Yingjia Gongjiu, while also monitoring the reform pace of Wuliangye and Yanghe [2][10]. - The report notes that the current market is in a left-side layout phase, with positive signals expected from both demand and supply sides [10]. 3. Beverage Sector - The beverage industry is experiencing a sustained boom, with leading companies significantly outperforming the market [14]. - The report continues to recommend companies like Nongfu Spring and Dongpeng Beverage, which are accelerating their national and platform expansion [14]. 4. Food Sector - In the snack segment, the report emphasizes strong alpha stocks, particularly in the konjac snack category, with leading companies like Weilong and Yanjinpuzi showing strong competitive advantages [11][12]. - The restaurant supply chain is showing signs of stabilization, with recommendations for leading companies like Yihai International and Haitian Flavoring [12]. 5. Earnings Forecast and Investment Ratings - The report provides earnings forecasts for key companies, with Guizhou Moutai expected to have an EPS of 75.79 in 2026, and Luzhou Laojiao with an EPS of 8.04 in the same year [4]. - The average PE ratio for these companies is projected to be around 18.9 for Moutai and 16.0 for Luzhou Laojiao in 2026 [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the public utilities and environmental protection sectors [5][7]. Core Views - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the construction of an "Energy Powerhouse," focusing on the development of hydrogen and fusion energy industries [3][18]. - The central economic work conference highlighted the need for a comprehensive green transition and the establishment of a new energy system [2][16]. - The report suggests that the energy system in China is transitioning from an "energy power" to an "energy powerhouse," with increased demands for supply security, ecological sustainability, technological innovation, and modern governance [3][19][21]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.08%, while the public utilities index decreased by 0.09% and the environmental index dropped by 0.61% [1][15]. - In the electricity sector, thermal power increased by 0.22%, while hydropower decreased by 0.26%, and renewable energy generation rose by 0.93% [1][15]. Important Events - The central economic work conference took place on December 10-11, focusing on energy security and the establishment of a carbon trading market [2][16]. - Yunnan province announced an increase in coal power capacity pricing to 330 RMB per kilowatt per year starting in 2026 [17]. Investment Strategy - Recommendations include major thermal power companies like Huadian International and Shanghai Electric, as well as leading renewable energy firms such as Longyuan Power and Three Gorges Energy [4][25]. - The report also highlights opportunities in the water and waste incineration sectors, suggesting investments in companies like China Everbright Environment and Zhongshan Public Utilities [26]. Key Company Earnings Forecasts - The report provides earnings forecasts for various companies, indicating a stable outlook for nuclear power operators like China Nuclear Power and China General Nuclear Power [4][25]. - It also emphasizes the defensive attributes of hydropower stocks in a global interest rate decline environment, recommending companies like Yangtze Power [4][25]. Industry Key Data Overview - In October, the industrial electricity production increased by 7.9% year-on-year, with total electricity consumption reaching 774.2 billion kilowatt-hours, a 4.3% increase [49][55]. - The cumulative installed power generation capacity reached 3.75 billion kilowatts, with solar power capacity growing by 43.8% year-on-year [73].

Group 1: Power Equipment Industry - The demand for power equipment is rapidly increasing in the AI era, driven by the construction of data centers by companies like Google Cloud and OpenAI, leading to explosive growth in power equipment demand [1][29] - Global energy storage demand is expected to surge, with projections indicating that global energy storage installations will reach 404 GWh by 2026, a year-on-year increase of 38% [1][95] - Key companies to watch in the power equipment sector include Jinpan Technology, Xinte Electric, Igor, Hewei Electric, Shenghong Co., and Zhongheng Electric [1] Group 2: Lithium Battery Industry - The lithium battery supply chain is expected to see a reversal in the downward price trend, with significant price and profit recovery anticipated for most products by 2026 [2] - Solid-state battery technology is accelerating towards commercialization, with expectations for expanded production lines and increased testing by 2026, laying the groundwork for mass application from 2027 to 2030 [2][73] - Key companies in the lithium battery sector include CATL, EVE Energy, and Zhongxin Innovation [2][73] Group 3: Wind Power Industry - The domestic wind power sector is projected to maintain a 10%-20% growth in new installations in 2026, supported by saturated orders and stable pricing [2][58] - The profitability of wind turbine manufacturers is expected to recover, with export growth contributing to performance improvements [2][59] - Key companies to focus on in the wind power sector include Goldwind Technology, Sany Renewable Energy, and Oriental Cable [2][59] Group 4: Photovoltaic Industry - The photovoltaic industry is undergoing supply-side adjustments, with a focus on new technologies such as silver-free paste and perovskite, which are expected to improve cost efficiency [3][85] - The profitability of silicon material is anticipated to recover first, driven by supply-demand improvements [3][85] - Key companies to monitor in the photovoltaic sector include GCL-Poly Energy, Xinte Energy, and Tongwei Co. [3][85] Group 5: Energy Storage Industry - The energy storage market is experiencing significant growth, with domestic system tenders reaching 174.9 GWh from January to November, a year-on-year increase of approximately 165% [95] - In the U.S., large-scale energy storage installations are projected to reach 22.05 GW in 2026, a year-on-year increase of 28% [95][96] - Key companies in the energy storage sector include CATL, EVE Energy, and Sungrow Power Supply [95]