Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, after the release of November economic data, the contradiction between strong supply and weak demand in China was prominent, with both production and consumption continuing to decline, but prices showed signs of improvement. The bond market first declined and then rose, showing a small V-shaped trend, slightly recovering throughout the week, and the 30 - 10 Treasury bond spread narrowed slightly [1][4][11][38]. - The trading activity of ultra - long bonds decreased slightly last week, but overall trading was very active. The term spread of ultra - long bonds remained flat, and the variety spread showed mixed trends [1][4][11]. - As of December 19, the spread between 30 - year Treasury bonds and 10 - year Treasury bonds was 41BP, at a historically low level. The spread between 20 - year China Development Bank bonds and 20 - year Treasury bonds was 17BP, at a historically extremely low position. The bond market is more likely to fluctuate currently. It is expected that the 30 - 10 spread will mainly fluctuate at a high level in the near term, and the variety spread of 20 - year China Development Bank bonds will also fluctuate in a narrow range [2][3][12][13]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Weekly Review Ultra - long Bond Review - After the release of November economic data last week, the bond market first declined and then rose, slightly recovering throughout the week, and the 30 - 10 Treasury bond spread narrowed slightly. The trading activity of ultra - long bonds decreased slightly, but overall trading was very active. The term spread of ultra - long bonds remained flat, and the variety spread showed mixed trends [1][4][11]. Ultra - long Bond Investment Outlook - **30 - year Treasury Bonds**: As of December 19, the spread was 41BP, at a historically low level. The economic downward pressure increased in November. The estimated GDP growth rate in October was about 4.1% year - on - year, a 0.1% decline from October. The deflation risk eased in November. The bond market is more likely to fluctuate. It is expected that the 30 - 10 spread will mainly fluctuate at a high level in the near term [2][12]. - **20 - year China Development Bank Bonds**: As of December 19, the spread was 17BP, at a historically extremely low position. The economic situation was similar to that of 30 - year Treasury bonds. It is expected that the variety spread of 20 - year China Development Bank bonds will fluctuate in a narrow range [3][13]. Ultra - long Bond Basic Overview - The balance of outstanding ultra - long bonds was 24.3 trillion. As of November 30, ultra - long bonds with a remaining term of over 14 years totaled 243,416 billion, accounting for 15.1% of the total bond balance. Local government bonds and Treasury bonds were the main varieties. By remaining term, the 30 - year variety had the highest proportion [14]. Primary Market Weekly Issuance - The issuance volume of ultra - long bonds dropped sharply last week (December 15 - 19, 2025), totaling 207 million yuan. Compared with the previous week, the total issuance volume decreased significantly. By variety, local government bonds accounted for 203 million yuan, and corporate bonds accounted for 4 million yuan. By term, 15 - year bonds were 74 million yuan, 20 - year bonds were 31 million yuan, and 30 - year bonds were 102 million yuan [19]. This Week's Planned Issuance - The announced issuance plan for ultra - long bonds this week totals 12 million yuan, all of which are ultra - long local government bonds [25]. Secondary Market Trading Volume - The trading of ultra - long bonds was very active last week. The trading volume was 1,230.2 billion yuan, accounting for 14.1% of the total bond trading volume. The trading activity decreased slightly. Compared with the previous week, the trading volume increased by 95.6 billion yuan, and the proportion decreased by 0.5% [27]. Yield - After the release of November economic data last week, the bond market showed a small V - shaped trend and slightly recovered. The 30 - 10 Treasury bond spread narrowed slightly. The yields of Treasury bonds, China Development Bank bonds, local bonds, and railway bonds of different terms changed to varying degrees [38]. Spread Analysis - **Term Spread**: The term spread of ultra - long bonds remained flat last week, with an absolute low level. The 30 - year - 10 - year Treasury bond spread was 41BP, unchanged from the previous week, at the 22% quantile since 2010 [48]. - **Variety Spread**: The variety spread of ultra - long bonds showed mixed trends last week, with an absolute low level. The spreads between 20 - year China Development Bank bonds and Treasury bonds and between 20 - year railway bonds and Treasury bonds were 17BP and 20BP respectively, changing by 2BP and - 2BP from the previous week, at the 14% and 15% quantiles since 2010 [50]. 30 - year Treasury Bond Futures - Last week, the main variety of 30 - year Treasury bond futures, TL2603, closed at 112.66 yuan, with a 0.00% increase. The total trading volume was 658,100 lots (- 26,189 lots), and the open interest was 141,900 lots (- 718 lots). Both the trading volume and open interest decreased slightly compared with the previous week [55].

证券研究报告 | 2025年12月22日 铜行业快评 铜精矿长单加工费基准降为零，促使冶炼行业"反内卷" | 行业研究·行业快评  | | | 有色金属  | 投资评级：优于大市（维持）  | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | 刘孟峦 | 010-88005312 | liumengluan@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980520040001 | | 证券分析师： | 焦方冉 | 021-60933177 | jiaofangran@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980522080003 | 事项： 12 月 19 日左右，智利矿业公司安托法加斯塔和国内某头部铜冶炼厂达成协议，将 2026 年铜精矿加工精炼 费用 Benchmark 分别定为 0 美元/吨和 0 美分/磅，低于 2025 年的 21.25 美元/吨和 2.125 美分/磅。 国信金属观点：长单加工费降为零，除了铜矿-铜冶炼供需错配，还因为副产品和回收率收益都处于历史 最好水平。中国铜冶炼厂工艺水平、成本控制全球领先，副产品消纳顺畅，在铜冶炼低迷期竞争 ...

Group 1: Silver Price Dynamics - Silver prices have reached a historic high in December 2025, driven by both industrial and financial demand[1] - Industrial silver usage exceeded 60% in 2025, with significant demand from sectors like data centers and renewable energy[1] - A short-term trigger for the price surge was the physical delivery of 60% of registered inventory (approximately 47.6 million ounces) at the New York COMEX, with registered inventory down over 70% from its 2020 peak[1] Group 2: Market Trends and Asset Performance - For the week of December 6 to December 13, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.08%, while the S&P 500 dropped by 0.63%[2] - The gold-silver ratio decreased to 67.39, down 5.64 from the previous week, indicating a relative strengthening of silver[2] - In commodity markets, London silver prices rose by 11.03%, reflecting strong demand dynamics[2] Group 3: Inventory and Fund Behavior - Recent oil inventory levels reached 44,355 million tons, an increase of 2.78 million tons from the previous week[3] - The latest data shows a rise in dollar long positions to 16,893 contracts, up by 889 contracts, while short positions increased to 33,001 contracts[3] - The gold ETF scale rose to 3,385 million ounces, reflecting a 90,000-ounce increase week-over-week[3] Group 4: Risks and Future Outlook - The ongoing global monetary easing cycle is expected to lower holding costs and strengthen demand for silver as a safe-haven asset[1] - Potential risks include the overextension of Federal Reserve easing expectations and technological breakthroughs in "de-silverization" that could disrupt market dynamics[1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the media and internet industry [5][4][35]. Core Insights - The media industry has shown a weekly increase of 0.54%, outperforming both the CSI 300 index (0.35%) and the ChiNext index (-1.31%) during the week of December 15-21, 2025 [11][12]. - Key performers in the industry include Guangxi Radio and Television, Sanwei Communication, Perfect World, and 37 Interactive Entertainment, while notable decliners include Bona Film Group, ST Fanli, and CTV Media [11][12]. - The release of "Avatar 3" has significantly boosted box office revenues, contributing to a total of 7.06 billion yuan in film box office for the week, with "Avatar 3" alone accounting for 3.81 billion yuan (53.9% of the total) [18][20]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The media sector's performance ranked 16th among all sectors for the week, with a notable increase in stock prices for several companies [11][12][13]. Key Developments - ByteDance launched the Doubao model 1.8 and Seedance 1.5 Pro, enhancing capabilities for audio-visual content generation [2][15]. - Tencent introduced the Mix Yuan video model 1.5, marking a significant advancement in real-time interactive experiences [2][16]. - OpenAI released the GPT Image 1.5 model, improving image generation and editing capabilities [2][17]. - MiniMax and Zhiyu successfully passed the Hong Kong Stock Exchange hearing, with plans to list in January 2026 [2][17]. - "Avatar 3" premiered on December 19, 2025, achieving a box office of nearly 4 billion yuan within three days [2][17]. Box Office and Content Performance - The top three films for the week were "Avatar 3" (3.81 billion yuan), "Zootopia 2" (2.42 billion yuan), and "Get Out" (460 million yuan) [18][20]. - Popular variety shows included "Now Departing Season 3" and "Running Man Season 9" [24][26]. - In the gaming sector, the top-grossing mobile games in November 2025 were "Whiteout Survival," "Kingshot," and "Gossip Harbor: Merge & Story" [27][28]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests capitalizing on opportunities in the gaming sector, particularly with companies like Giant Network, Kyeing Network, and Jibite [4][35]. - It emphasizes the potential for growth in AI applications and the film industry, recommending platforms like Mango TV and Bilibili, as well as content producers like Light Media and Huace Film [4][35].

Global Assets - The "cross-year red envelope" and "spring market" phenomenon is observed, with Q4 historically showing higher stock index gains due to seasonal effects, dovish signals from central banks, and increased risk appetite during the holiday season [3][8] - In Q1, commodities show strong seasonal performance, with gold averaging a 4% gain, silver at 3.4%, and oil at 4.85%, influenced by OPEC adjustments and seasonal demand [10][14] - Global assets exhibit a strong resonance during China's "spring market," with increased odds of gains across global equity assets during this period [3][18] AH Market Trends - The current trading window is less sensitive to fundamentals, with the spring market expected to be neutral to strong in 2026 [3] - Historical data shows that A-shares have a higher win rate during the period from the Spring Festival to the Two Sessions, while H-shares perform better from New Year to Spring Festival [3][34] - The main upward trend typically covers the period from the Spring Festival to the start of the Two Sessions, with a 94% overlap with actual upward trends [3] Style Patterns - Small-cap stocks outperform large-cap stocks with a 75% win rate, particularly during the spring market [3] - Growth stocks tend to outperform value stocks, with asymmetric potential returns where losing years are limited to a 4% drop, while winning years can exceed 10% [3] - The spring market shows a clear style switch between large-cap value and small-cap growth stocks, particularly around the Spring Festival [3] Industry Patterns - The spring market does not determine the main industry trends for the year, with sectors like non-ferrous metals, computing, and media showing relative strength [3] - Historical data indicates that communication and military industries have a higher probability of positive returns during the Spring Festival to Two Sessions period [3] - The overlap of top-performing industries during the spring market with the previous year's main trends is relatively low, indicating weak guiding effects [3] Technical and Practical Patterns - Entry points for small-cap stocks are recommended within the week before the Spring Festival, while large-cap growth and ChiNext stocks should be positioned early [3] - Important exit conditions include a single-day drop exceeding 2% and a weak MACD signal [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the media and internet industry [5][4][35]. Core Insights - The media industry has shown a weekly increase of 0.54%, outperforming both the CSI 300 index (0.35%) and the ChiNext index (-1.31%) during the week of December 15-21, 2025 [11][12]. - Key performers in the industry include Guangxi Guangdian, Sanwei Communication, Perfect World, and 37 Interactive Entertainment, while notable decliners include Bona Film Group, ST Fanli, Ciwen Media, and Zhejiang Wenlian [11][12]. - The release of "Avatar 3" has significantly boosted box office revenues, contributing to a total of 706 million yuan in film box office for the week, with "Avatar 3" alone accounting for 381 million yuan (53.9% of the total) [18][20]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The media sector ranked 16th in terms of weekly performance among all sectors, with a 0.54% increase [11][12][13]. - The top three films for the week were "Avatar 3" (381 million yuan), "Zootopia 2" (242 million yuan), and "Deqian Jinzhi" (46 million yuan) [18][20]. Key Developments - ByteDance launched the Doubao model 1.8 and Seedance 1.5 Pro, enhancing capabilities for audio-visual content generation [2][15]. - Tencent introduced the Mix Yuan video model 1.5, a real-time interactive experience platform [2][16]. - OpenAI released the GPT Image 1.5 model, improving image generation and editing capabilities [2][17]. - MiniMax and Zhiyu passed the Hong Kong Stock Exchange hearing, with plans to list in January 2026 [2][17]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests seizing opportunities in the gaming sector, particularly with companies like Giant Network, Kaiying Network, and Jibite, as the gaming sector is expected to rebound [4][35]. - It also highlights the potential in AI applications and the film industry, recommending platforms like Mango TV and Bilibili, as well as content producers like Light Media and Huace Film [4][35].

证券研究报告|2025年12月22日 资配跨年展望 春季躁动，你想知道的一切 资产配置研究·深度报告 证券分析师：陈凯畅 021-60375429 chengkaichang@guosen.com.cn S0980523090002 证券分析师：王开 021-60933132 wangkai8@guosen.com.cn S0980521030001 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 01 全球资产 02 AH大势 03 风格 04 行业规律 05 技术实操 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 全球权益资产的"跨年行情"或"春季躁动"是否成立 核心观点 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 • 全球资产的"跨年红包"与"春季行情"。1）季节效应上看，历年Q4全球主要市场股指涨幅更高，海外央行年末释放鸽派信号、外企 "岁末双薪"入市，圣诞假风偏提升驱动全球权益资产的"跨年红包"行情；2）大宗商品方面，Q1季节性偏强，黄金Q1强于Q4，银、 铜Q4强于Q1，布油四个季度表现逐季递减，受 OPEC 配额调整、冬季取暖和春季出行预期影响，一季度弹性偏大；3）全球资产如何共 振，中国"春季 ...

Group 1 - The report indicates that in the week from December 15 to December 19, 2025, overseas markets experienced more declines than gains, with slight valuation changes. The Asia-Pacific region saw a broad decline, led by South Korea, while the Eurozone and the UK saw increases. Notably, the Nikkei 225 and the Korean Composite Index fell by 2.61% and 3.52%, respectively, but their P/E ratios expanded by 0.92x and 2.57x, indicating downward revisions in earnings expectations [3][8]. - In the same week, A-shares showed narrow fluctuations with slight valuation expansion. The large-cap value stocks outperformed growth stocks, with large-cap value rising by 1.52% while large-cap growth fell by 1.39%. The report highlights that the valuation distribution is asymmetric, with significant P/E contractions in small-cap growth and the National Index 2000 [3][23]. - The report notes that the downstream consumer sector has a favorable valuation attractiveness. The communication sector has the highest valuation percentiles, with rolling 1-year, 3-year, and 5-year averages of 96.80%, 98.93%, and 99.36%, respectively. Other consumer sectors like social services and beauty care also show relatively high valuation attractiveness [3][26]. Group 2 - The report highlights that the new energy sector experienced a broad decline, with photovoltaic stocks leading the drop at -3.91%. However, sectors such as insurance and military industry performed well, indicating a divergence in sector performance. The report also notes that some industries, like artificial intelligence and new energy, saw significant P/E expansions despite falling stock prices, reflecting downward revisions in profit expectations [3][23]. - The report provides a detailed valuation comparison of various indices, indicating that the core broad-based indices (CSI 300, Shanghai Composite, and Wind All A) are all above the 75th percentile level since 2010. In contrast, other indices are positioned between the median and the 75th percentile [3][28]. - The report concludes that large-cap growth stocks have superior valuation attractiveness, with their P/E, P/B, and P/S ratios showing higher percentile rankings compared to small-cap value stocks, which have lower valuation attractiveness across multiple time frames [3][26].

Macro and Strategy - The macroeconomic review indicates a moderate slowdown in domestic economic growth, with November GDP growth estimated at 4.1%, down 0.2 percentage points from October, suggesting a low probability of significant rebound in December [9][10] - The service sector is identified as the main drag on economic growth, with a notable decline in the production index, particularly in traditional industries like finance and real estate, while emerging sectors show resilience [10] - The shift in policy focus from growth preservation to structural adjustment is highlighted, indicating a transition towards high-quality development [10] Fixed Income - The fixed income market is experiencing seasonal increases in cross-year funding demand, with expectations of rising market interest rates in December [11] - The report notes a slight fluctuation in interbank and exchange repo rates, with a forecasted increase in excess deposit reserve ratios for November and December [11] - The convertible bond market is showing signs of recovery, with a notable increase in the average price and a decrease in the average premium rate [13][14] Industry and Company Insights - The internet securities industry is transitioning from a traditional service model to a customer-centric ecosystem, which is expected to drive innovation and growth [15][17] - The insurance asset-liability management framework is moving towards a more comprehensive regulatory system, emphasizing long-term value and risk prevention [18][19] - The food and beverage sector is projected to benefit from cost advantages and efficiency improvements, with a focus on innovation and recovery opportunities [26][28] - The electric power equipment and new energy sector is witnessing significant developments, particularly with the first large-scale green methanol project in China, indicating a market potential exceeding 10 billion annually [30][31] - Nike's performance shows regional disparities, with North America recovering faster than the Greater China region, which faces significant pressure due to competitive pricing and brand positioning challenges [32][33] - Wanhua Chemical is experiencing a rebound in MDI product prices, driven by production cuts and increased demand from the US housing market due to interest rate cuts [34][36]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the China Securities REITs Index declined by 3.1% throughout the week. After the departure of irrational premium and speculative funds in the early stage, the year - to - date return of the China Securities REITs Index turned negative (-2.1%). As emotional pricing fades, prices are gradually anchored to the cash flow and distribution ability of underlying assets, significantly enhancing the safety margin. From the comparison of weekly returns of major indices, CSI Convertible Bond Index > CSI Aggregate Bond Index > CSI 300 Index > China Securities REITs Index. As of December 19, 2025, the dividend yield of equity - type REITs is 80BP lower than the average dividend yield of CSI Dividend Stocks, and the spread between the average internal rate of return of concession - type REITs and the 10 - year Treasury yield is 367BP [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Secondary Market Trends - **Index Performance**: As of December 19, 2025, the closing price of the China Securities REITs (closing) Index was 773.15 points, with a weekly decline of 3.1% from December 15 - 19, 2025, performing worse than the CSI Convertible Bond Index (+0.5%), the CSI Aggregate Bond Index (+0.1%), and the CSI 300 Index (-0.3%). Year - to - date, the performance order of major indices is: CSI Convertible Bond Index (+17.1%) > CSI 300 Index (+16.1%) > CSI Aggregate Bond Index (+0.6%) > China Securities REITs Index (-2.1%). In the past year, the return of the China Securities REITs Index was -0.7%, with a volatility of 7.5%. Its return was lower than that of the CSI 300 Index, the CSI Convertible Bond Index, and the CSI Aggregate Bond Index; its volatility was lower than that of the CSI 300 Index and the CSI Convertible Bond Index but higher than that of the CSI Aggregate Bond Index [2][6]. - **Market Capitalization and Turnover**: On December 19, the total market capitalization of REITs was 214.1 billion yuan, a decrease of 3.5 billion yuan from the previous week. The average daily turnover rate for the whole week was 0.39%, an increase of 0.02% from the previous week [2][9]. - **Performance by Type**: From the perspective of different project attributes, the average weekly returns of equity - type REITs and concession - type REITs were -2.1% and -4.0% respectively. All types of REITs closed down, with transportation, water conservancy facilities, and municipal facilities REITs experiencing the largest declines. The two REITs with the largest weekly increases were Hua'an Waigaoqiao REIT (+1.34%) and Boshi Jinkai Industrial Park REIT (+0.08%), while the rest of the REITs declined this week [3][13][15]. - **Trading Activity**: Among different project types, water conservancy facilities REITs had the highest average daily turnover rate during the period, with an average daily turnover rate of 0.9%. Transportation infrastructure REITs had the highest trading volume proportion this week, accounting for 25.9% of the total REITs trading volume. The top three REITs in terms of net inflow of main funds were Southern Runze Technology Data Center REIT (7.45 million yuan), Huatai Jiangsu Expressway REIT (6.71 million yuan), and China Merchants Expressway REIT (4.22 million yuan) [3][18][19]. 3.2 Primary Market Issuance - From the beginning of the year to December 19, 2025, there were 2 REITs products in the accepted stage, 3 in the declared stage, 2 in the inquired stage, 5 in the feedback stage, 6 products that had passed and were waiting for listing, and 15 newly - listed first - issue products on the exchange [22]. 3.3 Valuation Tracking - **Valuation Indicators**: REITs have both bond and equity characteristics. As of December 19, the average annualized cash distribution rate of public - offering REITs was 6.20%. From the equity perspective, relative net value premium rate, IRR, and P/FFO are used to judge the valuation of REITs. Different project types have different valuation levels. For example, the relative net value premium rate of affordable rental housing REITs is 40.7%, and the P/FFO is 36.3 [24][26]. - **Comparison with Benchmarks**: As of December 19, 2025, the dividend yield of equity REITs was 20BP lower than the average dividend yield of CSI Dividend Stocks, and the spread between the average internal rate of return of concession - type REITs and the 10 - year Treasury yield was 367BP [28]. 3.4 Industry News - On December 19, China Three Gorges New Energy (Group) Co., Ltd. officially applied for the "Huatai Three Gorges Clean Energy REIT", with the underlying asset being the Dalian Zhuanghe Offshore Wind Power Project. The project has been fully connected to the grid in 2020, and the relevant issuance proposal has been reviewed and approved by the board of directors. The company and its affiliated parties plan to subscribe for 44% of the fund shares in total. - On December 19, the "Huaxia Anbo Warehouse REIT" initiated by foreign - funded enterprise Ambo was successfully listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange. The underlying assets of this product are three high - quality logistics and warehousing projects in the core area of the Guangdong - Hong Kong - Macao Greater Bay Area. During the issuance stage, the offline inquiry multiple of this fund reached 235.8 times, and various investors highly recognized the investment value of the project [4][34].