Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for TCL Electronics Holdings, with a target price of HKD 13.65 based on a current price of HKD 10.28 [2][5]. Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of HKD 950 million to HKD 1.08 billion for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 45% to 65% [3][13]. - TCL's performance in the first half of 2025 was strong, driven by optimized product and distribution channels, as well as high growth in innovative business segments [4][14]. - The global TV shipment volume reached 13.46 million units, a 7.6% increase year-on-year, with Mini LED TV shipments growing by 176% [4][14]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections for TCL are as follows: - 2024: HKD 99.32 billion - 2025: HKD 119.64 billion (up 20%) - 2026: HKD 134.06 billion (up 12%) - 2027: HKD 149.80 billion (up 12%) [2][9]. - Net profit forecasts are: - 2024: HKD 1.76 billion - 2025: HKD 2.30 billion (up 31%) - 2026: HKD 2.85 billion (up 24%) - 2027: HKD 3.37 billion (up 18%) [2][10]. - The diluted EPS is projected to increase from HKD 0.70 in 2024 to HKD 1.34 in 2027 [2][10]. Valuation - The report highlights that TCL's focus on high-end display technology and Mini LED products is expected to enhance profit margins and drive revenue growth [5][15]. - The estimated EPS for 2025-2027 is projected at HKD 0.91, HKD 1.13, and HKD 1.34 respectively, with a PE valuation of 15x for 2025 [5][15].

Core Insights - Public funds continued to increase their holdings in Hong Kong stocks in Q2 2025, with the market value of Hong Kong stocks in the sample of actively managed equity funds rising to 20.0%, up from 19.2% in Q1 2025 [6][10] - The increase in holdings was primarily in small and medium-sized Hong Kong stocks, with the Hang Seng Small Cap Index's component stocks' market value share in the total Hong Kong stock holdings of funds increasing by 5.6 percentage points [6][10] - Sector-wise, public funds mainly increased their positions in the pharmaceutical, light manufacturing, non-bank financials, and banking sectors, corresponding to themes of innovative drugs, new consumption, and dividends [6][10] Fund Holdings Analysis - The report indicates a significant shift in fund holdings, with a reduction in the technology sector, particularly in internet and automotive stocks, which had previously seen substantial gains [6][10] - The technology sector's market value share in fund holdings decreased by 3.7 percentage points, while the media and retail sectors also saw declines [10][12] - Conversely, the consumer sector saw an increase of 3.8 percentage points in market value share, indicating a strategic pivot towards consumer-related investments [10][12] Specific Stock Movements - Notable changes in specific stock holdings include Tencent Holdings decreasing from 21.5% to 17.8%, while Alibaba's share dropped from 10.6% to 6.3% [12] - In contrast, stocks like Kuaishou and Pop Mart saw increases in their holdings, reflecting a shift towards emerging consumer brands [12] - The report highlights a significant increase in holdings for companies like Xinda Biopharmaceuticals, which rose from 1.2% to 3.5%, indicating a growing interest in innovative healthcare solutions [12]

Market Performance - Southeast Asia ETF rose by 1.69%, driven by expectations of monetary easing, supporting continued market recovery[5] - The Southeast Asia ETF outperformed Latin America, India, and the UK, lagging only behind China[34] - The Southeast Asia Technology ETF gained 4.32%, outperforming the broader Southeast Asia ETF by 2.62 percentage points[34] Country-Specific Performance - iShares MSCI Indonesia ETF rose by 1.66%, underperforming by 0.03 percentage points, supported by a U.S.-Indonesia trade agreement and interest rate cuts[38] - iShares MSCI Singapore ETF increased by 4.91%, outperforming by 3.21 percentage points, indicating a stable upward trend[38] - iShares MSCI Thailand ETF surged by 6.21%, outperforming by 4.51 percentage points, as tariff risks were largely priced in[38] - iShares MSCI Malaysia ETF fell by 1.97%, underperforming by 3.66 percentage points, despite a central bank interest rate cut[38] - Global X MSCI Vietnam ETF jumped by 11.79%, outperforming by 10.10 percentage points, buoyed by a trade agreement and strong economic resilience[38] Trading Volume and Liquidity - Global X FTSE Southeast Asia ETF had a trading volume of 118,000 shares, a decrease of 2.7%[13] - iShares MSCI Indonesia ETF trading volume increased by 39.7% to 6.982 million shares[14] - iShares MSCI Singapore ETF trading volume decreased by 25.4% to 448,600 shares[14] - Global X MSCI Vietnam ETF trading volume surged by 100.5% to 291,000 shares[14] Economic Indicators - Vietnam's GDP grew by 7.96% year-on-year in Q2 2025, with a forecast of 8% growth for the full year[25] - The Thai SET index rose by 7.74%, reflecting positive market sentiment amid ongoing trade negotiations[19] - Malaysia's central bank cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 2.75%, the first cut in five years, but market reaction was muted[21]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for Geely Automobile Holdings with a target price of HK$28.85 [2][4][15]. Core Insights - Geely's vehicle sales reached 1.409 million units in the first half of 2025, with expectations for significant growth in the second half due to a faster rollout of new models, likely exceeding the revised target of 3 million units for the year [4][15]. - The merger with Zeekr is expected to enhance Geely's core EV assets and strengthen its group platform strategy, aligning with the "One Geely" vision [5][16][17]. - The report forecasts vehicle deliveries of 3.11 million, 3.56 million, and 4.00 million units for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with NEV penetration rates of 56%, 57%, and 65% [4][15]. Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to grow from RMB 240.19 billion in 2024 to RMB 322.07 billion in 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of 34% [9][10]. - Net profit is expected to remain stable at RMB 16.61 billion in 2025, with projected EPS of RMB 1.65, RMB 1.91, and RMB 2.07 for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [9][10][13]. - The gross profit margin is anticipated to improve gradually, reaching 16.5% in 2025 and 16.8% by 2027 [9][10]. Strategic Merger Details - The merger with Zeekr, finalized on July 15, 2025, involved Geely acquiring all outstanding shares of Zeekr for approximately US$2.4 billion, with shareholders given the option of cash or stock [5][16]. - This merger is seen as a strategic move to consolidate resources, enhance operational efficiency, and secure core assets under Geely's control [6][19]. Product Launch Pipeline - Geely plans a robust product launch schedule in the second half of 2025, including several new models across its brands, which is expected to support the sales target of 3 million units [7][17].

Consumption - The consumption market shows a divergence between goods and services, with service consumption, particularly travel, experiencing a surge during the summer[2] - In the automotive sector, wholesale and retail sales increased compared to the previous week, with year-on-year growth rates also improving[4] - Food prices have seen a decline, with agricultural product prices dropping, while the price of Moutai liquor fell by 1.1% week-on-week[4] Investment - Special bond issuance accelerated, with a cumulative issuance of CNY 2.6 trillion by July 19, 2025, marking the highest issuance for the same period since 2020[18] - New home sales in 30 cities continued to decline seasonally, with a year-on-year drop of 25.7%, while the proportion of second-hand homes rose to a historical high of 72%[18] Trade - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) surged by 29.9% week-on-week, driven by increased shipments of Brazilian iron ore and tight shipping capacity[21] - Port operations have become more frequent, with the number of ships docking for imports and exports increasing compared to the previous week[21] Production - Overall production is improving, with electricity demand rising due to high temperatures, and industries such as steel, petrochemicals, and automobiles showing increased operating rates[23] - The operating rate for PTA and polyester has also risen, indicating a recovery in the petrochemical sector[26] Prices - The Producer Price Index (PPI) and Consumer Price Index (CPI) are both showing marginal increases, with industrial prices rising by 1.2% week-on-week[37] - The price of carbon lithium has increased by 4.5% week-on-week, while prices for PTA and polyester continue to decline[37] Liquidity - The US dollar index rose by 59 basis points, surpassing 98 points, reflecting the resilience of the US economy[40] - The central bank's net liquidity injection was CNY 13.011 trillion, maintaining a reasonable level of liquidity in the market[39]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the RISC-V industry in China, suggesting a strong potential for growth and market share acquisition in the coming years [5][21]. Core Insights - The 2025 RISC-V China Summit highlighted the rapid development and diversification of the RISC-V ecosystem in China, with significant contributions from various sectors including education, wireless applications, general-purpose control, and computing [2][14]. - High-performance CPUs such as Alibaba's Xuantie C930 and the Xiangshan processor are entering practical use, with mass production expected within one to two years, marking a significant advancement in China's chip design capabilities [5][19]. - The report emphasizes the strong competitive advantage of endpoint solutions, particularly in the MCU and embedded systems segments, where companies have established differentiated products validated by market performance [3][20]. Summary by Sections Event Overview - The 5th RISC-V China Summit took place from July 16 to 19, 2025, in Shanghai, featuring over 100 companies and research institutions, with more than 1,000 attendees and over 500,000 online viewers [1][13]. Industry Development - China's RISC-V industry is flourishing across multiple domains, with a comprehensive landscape formed across consumer electronics, IoT, control, and computing fields [2][14]. - The report notes that the RISC-V architecture is being increasingly integrated into various applications, including AI, automotive, and embedded systems, showcasing a diversified approach to ecosystem development [2][18]. High-Performance CPU Advancements - Significant advancements in high-performance CPUs were noted, with the Xuantie C930 achieving 15/GHz on SPECint2006 benchmarks and the Xiangshan processors showing competitive performance against established architectures [3][15]. Endpoint Solutions - Companies like ESWIN and WCH are successfully differentiating their offerings in the MCU and embedded systems markets, with ESWIN's RISAA platform and WCH's QingKe RISC-V MCUs achieving substantial sales [3][16]. IP Core Leadership - China is leading in the IP core segment, with notable achievements such as the NA900 automotive-grade RISC-V CPU IP certified to ISO26262 standards, indicating a strong position in the global IP ecosystem [3][17]. Government Support and International Collaboration - The report highlights strong national support for RISC-V development, with government initiatives facilitating ecosystem integration and international collaboration during the summit [5][18].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry or specific companies involved in the RISC-V architecture and NVIDIA's CUDA support. Core Insights - NVIDIA's announcement at the 2025 RISC-V China Summit signifies a strategic shift in the global AI computing landscape, evolving from a duopoly of x86 and ARM to a tripartite balance with RISC-V [1][2][27] - The integration of CUDA with RISC-V allows RISC-V processors to function as the main CPU in AI systems, marking a significant entry into the mainstream AI computing domain [1][26] - The move enables RISC-V to leverage NVIDIA's extensive software ecosystem, facilitating rapid development and innovation in AI applications [2][28] Summary by Sections Event Overview - At the RISC-V Summit China 2025, NVIDIA announced that its CUDA platform will support RISC-V architecture, allowing RISC-V processors to act as core application processors in AI systems [1][26] Strategic Implications - This development indicates a major transformation in the computing power structure, traditionally dominated by x86 and ARM, now including RISC-V as a key player [2][27] - NVIDIA's support for RISC-V is seen as a strategic move to decouple its GPU offerings from any single CPU architecture, ensuring its central role in a diversified computing future [4][31] Ecosystem Development - The report emphasizes that the greatest challenge for new computing architectures is building a robust software ecosystem, which NVIDIA's support for RISC-V aims to address by enabling access to its established CUDA ecosystem [3][28] - RISC-V's modular design allows for customized processors tailored to specific AI tasks, enhancing efficiency and cost-effectiveness compared to traditional CPUs [6][30] Geopolitical Context - The open and neutral nature of RISC-V is particularly relevant in the context of global technological competition, providing countries like China with a path to technological sovereignty [4][30] - NVIDIA's strategic intent is to facilitate local developers' access to mainstream AI software ecosystems while promoting the development of sovereign RISC-V chips [4][30]

本报告导读： 6 月美国 CPI 增速如期回升，但核心 CPI 环比不及市场预期。关税对核心商品的影响 开始显现但总体仍较温和。未来几个月关税对通胀的传导仍将进一步释放，CPI 增速 或进一步走高。美联储或仍将维持观望，短期内难以降息。 投资要点： 风险提示：特朗普关税政策再超预期 宏观研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.07.21 2025-07-21 通胀温和回升，美联储仍可观望 2025 年 6 月美国物价数据点评 [Table_Authors] 王宇晴(分析师) 宏 观 研 究 宏 观 快 报 点 评 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 021-23185641 wangyuqing@gtht.com 登记编号 S0880525040119 梁中华(分析师) 021-23219820 [Table_Summary] 美国 6 月通胀：如期回升。6 月美国 CPI 同比 2.7%（前值 2.4%，市 场预期 2.6%）。核心 CPI 同比回升 0.1 个百分点至 2.9%，符合市场预 期。CPI 环比增速回升 0.2 个百分点至 0.3%（市场预期 0.3%），核心 CPI ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry or specific companies involved in the RISC-V architecture transition. Core Insights - The RISC-V instruction set architecture is evolving towards High-Performance Computing (HPC), marking a significant turning point in the semiconductor industry, transitioning from embedded systems to a strategic pathway in general-purpose computing [1][13]. - RISC-V is maturing into a scalable platform capable of supporting critical applications such as data centers, AI computing, and automotive electronics, indicating its potential for key breakthroughs in these areas [2][14]. - The competitive advantage of RISC-V is shifting from its openness to its ability to execute efficiently in high-performance environments, which will be crucial for its success [3][15]. - The transition of RISC-V from specialized applications to general-purpose computing is expected to reshape the competitive landscape of the semiconductor industry, with a long-term potential to rival ARM and x86 architectures [3][17]. Summary by Sections Event Overview - The 2025 RISC-V China Summit highlighted the transition of RISC-V towards HPC as a pivotal development for the semiconductor industry, redefining the landscape of autonomous and open innovation [1][13]. Industry Evolution - RISC-V is evolving from primarily embedded applications to a general-purpose computing platform, capable of supporting advanced applications in data centers and AI [2][14]. - The architecture encourages customization based on open standards, leading to heterogeneous multi-core architectures that combine general-purpose cores with specialized accelerator cores [2][14]. Competitive Landscape - The core competitive advantage of RISC-V is transitioning towards efficient execution capabilities, with a focus on stable performance in complex task environments [3][15]. - The report emphasizes that future competition will focus on practical high-performance applications and the establishment of a comprehensive ecosystem [3][17]. Long-term Outlook - RISC-V is positioned to become a mainstream architecture comparable to ARM and x86, with the potential to drive industrial transformation and foster new semiconductor companies once the HPC ecosystem is fully developed [3][17].

宏 观 研 究 美国：居民消费仍具韧性 [Table_Authors] ——海外经济政策跟踪 本报告导读： 本周高频数据显示美欧经济仍具有一定韧性，美国市场调查层面和交易层面通胀预 期出现分化，关税对美国通胀的影响或逐渐体现，美联储对后续降息仍有耐心。 投资要点： 风险提示：海外货币政策调整超预期，关税政策的不确定性。 宏 观 周 报 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 宏观研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.07.20 [Table_Report] 2025-07-21 [Table_Summary] 全球大类资产表现。本周（2025.7.11-2025.7.18），大宗商品价格涨 跌互现。其中，COMEX 铜下跌 1.2%，伦敦金现下跌 0.15%，标普-高 盛商品指数上涨 0.35%。 主要经济体股市普遍上涨，其中恒生指数 上涨 2.8%，日经 225 上涨 0.6%，标普 500 上涨 0.6%。债市方面， 10 年期美债收益率较前一周回升 1BP 至 4.44%，国内 10Y 国债期货 价格下跌 0.04%。外汇市场方面，美元指数较前一周回升，报收 98.5， 日元和人 ...