[Table_Title] 研究报告 Research Report 27 Jun 2025 Research Report on the Entire 618 Cycle of the Beauty Category on both Taobao/Tmall and Douyin Platforms 中国化妆品 China (A-share) Cosmetics 美妆品类 618 全周期淘系和抖音双平台调研报告 寇媛媛 Yuanyuan Kou 吴颖婕 Mindy Wu yy.kou@htisec.com mindy.yj.wu@htisec.com [Table_yemei1] 热点速评 Flash Analysis [Table_summary] (Please see APPENDIX 1 for English summary) 本次 618 期间，淘系为美妆销售主战场但销售略低于预期，抖音美妆增速高于抖音大盘增速。淘系平台 5.13-6.20 的 GMV 略超 400 亿，同比增长超 10%，不及平台预期目标。总体淘系平台大盘增速同样不及预期，主要由于政策 调整导致爆发力减弱，去年跨店满减活动单日 ...

Investment Rating - The report suggests a focus on upstream suppliers that provide core technologies and high barriers to entry, rather than direct investment in launch vehicle companies that face significant market and capital expenditure risks [4][50]. Core Insights - The global aerospace launch market is undergoing a profound and irreversible structural expansion driven by a revolution in cost structures, shifting from a government budget-dominated paradigm to a commercially driven era focused on high launch frequency and cost efficiency [1][7]. - The key catalyst for this transformation is SpaceX's disruptive cost reductions achieved through reusable rocket technology, which has set new price benchmarks and operational expectations for the market [1][7]. - Future launch demand will be supported by three solid pillars: the large-scale deployment of commercial broadband constellations (e.g., Starlink and Kuiper), increasing geopolitical competition and national security needs, and the revival of scientific and deep space exploration missions represented by the Artemis program [1][10]. Industry Background and Market Drivers - The report highlights a significant increase in global orbital launches, with a record of 259 launches expected in 2024, up from 223 in 2023, and a forecast of over 300 launches in 2025 [7][10]. - The transition to a commercial-driven market is exemplified by SpaceX's 138 launches in 2024, which accounted for half of the global market, establishing a new operational rhythm [7][10]. Core Technology Path Analysis - The competition in the launch market is fundamentally a competition of underlying propulsion technologies, converging on the "Methalox + Reusability + Additive Manufacturing" combination [2][13]. - Methalox engines are recognized as the future mainstream path due to their clean combustion characteristics and ability to simplify the reuse process, addressing the carbon buildup issues of traditional kerosene fuels [15][19]. Value Chain and Supply Chain Analysis - The report identifies a shift in value and profit concentration towards upstream suppliers of core technologies and high-barrier components, moving away from midstream assembly integration [3][36]. - The "smile curve" analysis indicates that high-value areas are concentrated at the upstream and downstream ends of the value chain, while midstream assembly faces profit margin pressures [36][37]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies such as Howmet Aerospace, LOAR, VSE Corporation, BAE Systems, Rolls-Royce, Safran, L3Harris Technologies, and Velo3D, which are positioned as key technology enablers in the supply chain [4][50].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating for the industry, suggesting a positive outlook for investment opportunities [2]. Core Insights - The launch of Xiaomi YU7 is expected to structurally change the prosperity of the automotive parts industry, alleviating previous market concerns regarding the domestic passenger car market in late 2025 to 2026 [4][10]. - The YU7 has received a strong initial response, with over 289,000 orders within the first hour of its launch, indicating significant market demand [9]. - The report highlights potential investment opportunities in the supply chain of YU7, specifically mentioning companies such as Wuxi Zhenhua, Desay SV, Huayang Group, and Nexteer Automotive, which are expected to benefit from increased revenue as YU7 production ramps up [10]. Summary by Sections Investment Advice - Following the launch of Xiaomi YU7, there is a surge in orders, indicating a new opportunity in the supply chain. The report suggests focusing on the supply chain companies associated with YU7 [7][10]. Product Details - Xiaomi YU7 is priced starting at RMB 253,500, featuring advanced specifications such as the Xiaomi Super Motor V6s Plus, a 0-100 km/h acceleration time of 3.23 seconds, and a maximum range of 835 km [8][9]. - The YU7 is available in three configurations: YU7 at RMB 253,500, YU7 Pro at RMB 279,900, and YU7 Max at RMB 329,900, which are considered competitive in the market [8]. Market Potential - The report estimates that YU7's annual sales could reach between 300,000 to 400,000 units, with the potential to drive additional market growth in the RMB 200,000 to 300,000 electric vehicle segment, which is substantial [9][10]. - The total SUV market in the RMB 200,000 to 300,000 price range is estimated to exceed 1 million units, indicating a significant opportunity for YU7 to capture market share [9].

Investment Rating - The report suggests a strong long-term infrastructure construction demand in the U.S. and recommends focusing on companies like GE Vernova, Siemens Energy, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Hitachi, Mitsubishi Electric, and Schneider Electric [5] Core Insights - The report highlights the ongoing negotiations between OpenAI and Microsoft, indicating a mutually beneficial relationship despite some tensions [15] - The U.S. Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) has introduced a new method for managing transmission system capacity, aiming to release more capacity without costly new construction [18] - The report notes that the average spot price of electricity in major U.S. regions has increased by 12.5% week-on-week, while natural gas prices have also risen significantly due to geopolitical factors and extreme weather [3] - The report emphasizes the importance of small modular reactors (SMR) as a preferred energy solution for AI data centers, especially with the support of the Trump administration [54][55] Summary by Sections Global Infrastructure and Construction Equipment - OpenAI and Microsoft are renegotiating their partnership, with both parties acknowledging the strategic importance of AI infrastructure [15] - The U.S. is expected to invest over 825 billion yuan in grid infrastructure by 2025, maintaining a high level of activity [18] Global Electrical and Intelligent Equipment - The gas turbine price index increased by 5.3% year-on-year in May 2025, indicating a tightening supply-demand relationship [22] - The report anticipates that the U.S. gas turbine market will grow primarily due to the development of AI data centers [25] Global Energy Industry - The average spot price of electricity in the U.S. has risen by 12.5% week-on-week, while natural gas prices have increased by 17.4% [3] - The report mentions that the U.S. is expected to increase its nuclear power capacity significantly by 2029, driven by the demand from data centers [55] Global New Materials - The report states that the actual market price of uranium was $52.17 per pound in April 2025, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 27.2% [4] Global Defense and Aerospace - The price index for aircraft engines and parts remained stable in May 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 1.7% [4] Key Company Updates - GE Vernova is investing $70 million to build the world's first BWRX-300 SMR engineering and service center near the Darlington new nuclear project site in Ontario [52] - Siemens Canada announced plans to gradually close a factory in Ontario to enhance global competitiveness [52] - ABB has expanded its large robot product line, introducing a compact mobile robot [52]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry or specific company Core Insights - Huawei has made significant advancements in AI infrastructure by launching the Pangu Model 5.5, which includes five foundational models in NLP, multimodal learning, forecasting, scientific computing, and computer vision, with a notable near-trillion-parameter model in NLP [10][11] - The CloudMatrix architecture supports the training of a 718-billion-parameter MoE model, achieving a single-card inference throughput of 2,300 tokens/s, nearly four times higher than traditional setups, and reducing NPU communication latency to the microsecond level [11][12] - Huawei's Pangu Pro MoE (72B) ranks first domestically among sub-trillion models on the SuperCLUE benchmark, demonstrating superior performance with fewer activated parameters and a 15% higher inference throughput compared to industry peers [12] Summary by Sections Event - On June 20, 2025, Huawei launched the Pangu Model 5.5 at the HDC 2025 Developer Conference, featuring advancements in AI capabilities across various domains [10] Technological Breakthroughs - Huawei's CloudMatrix architecture integrates 384 NPUs and 192 Kunpeng CPUs, enhancing performance and flexibility in AI model training and inference [11] - The architecture allows for concurrent inference of 384 experts per node, optimizing resource allocation for training and inference tasks [11] Model Performance - The Pangu Pro MoE model achieved a throughput of 1,529 tokens/s, outperforming competitors while utilizing significantly fewer parameters [12] - Key upgrades include the introduction of a 30-billion-parameter vision MoE model and a unified Triplet Transformer architecture, which improves prediction accuracy by 30% in various industrial applications [12][13] Ecosystem Development - Huawei Cloud has established a comprehensive AI ecosystem, including tools that significantly reduce development time for AI applications and enhance security measures against potential threats [13]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry or company Core Insights - Huawei launched the CloudRobo embodied intelligence platform on June 20, 2025, at the HDC 2025 Developer Conference, positioning itself to enable all connected devices to become embodied intelligent robots rather than building physical robot bodies [11] - The platform integrates end-to-end capabilities, including data synthesis, simulation validation, and cloud-edge collaborative deployment, introducing three core model architectures: multimodal generation, planning, and execution [11] - Key breakthroughs include a data efficiency revolution, achieving a training paradigm of "20% real + 80% synthetic data," which increases data acquisition efficiency by 4 times [11] - The platform demonstrated a dual-arm robotic system achieving millimeter-level precision in a SIM card-sized workspace with a success rate exceeding 90% [11] Summary by Sections CloudRobo Platform Features - CloudRobo utilizes a multimodal generative model combining GAN and VAE architectures to create physically accurate digital twin environments, reducing robot task adaptation cycles from weeks to 24 hours [12] - The planning model employs reinforcement learning and graph neural networks to enhance task reasoning, improving logistics efficiency by 30% in automotive manufacturing [12][13] - The embodied execution model achieves sub-millimeter operation accuracy, enabling zero-damage operations in semiconductor manufacturing [13] Ecosystem Restructuring - Huawei addresses the fragmentation in the robotics ecosystem with open protocols, such as the R2C (Robot-to-Cloud) protocol, standardizing communication between robots and the cloud [14] - The collaboration with partners has led to an average development efficiency increase of 50% among early adopters [14] - The platform has already achieved commercial deployment in industrial coating, automotive manufacturing, and optical communications [14]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry or specific companies [2]. Core Insights - The wholesale prices of major baijiu brands have generally fallen, with Moutai's prices dropping significantly. For instance, the wholesale price of Feitian Moutai (case) is now 1,950 yuan, down by 190 yuan from last month, and down 290 yuan year-to-date [29][35]. - The discount rates for soft drinks, condiments, and beer have decreased compared to the end of May, indicating a potential increase in consumer demand or pricing power for these categories [30][31]. - The average discount rate for liquid milk products has increased slightly, suggesting a shift in pricing dynamics within this segment [32]. Summary by Sections Baijiu Pricing - Feitian Moutai (case) is priced at 1,950 yuan, down 190 yuan from last month and down 290 yuan year-to-date. The price has decreased by 460 yuan compared to the same period last year [35]. - Wuliangye's eighth-generation price is stable at 920 yuan, with a slight decrease of 25 yuan from last month [35]. - Other brands like Luzhou Laojiao and Shanxi Fenjiu also show minor price adjustments, reflecting a broader trend in the baijiu market [29][35]. Consumer Goods Discounts - The average discount rate for soft drinks has improved from 88.7% to 94.8%, indicating a reduction in discounting practices [30][31]. - For condiments, the average discount rate increased from 83.4% to 87.7%, suggesting stronger pricing power [30][31]. - Beer products also saw a rise in average discount rates from 78.7% to 81.2%, reflecting a similar trend [30][31]. Liquid Milk and Other Products - The average discount rate for liquid milk products has slightly increased from 69.7% to 68.8%, indicating a potential tightening in pricing strategies [32]. - Infant formula and convenience foods have maintained stable pricing, with discount rates remaining relatively unchanged [32][33].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry or specific company Core Insights - Huawei officially released the developer preview of HarmonyOS 6, focusing on AI capability upgrades and ecosystem expansion, with key innovations including low-latency interaction and the Harmony Multi-Agent Framework (HMAF) [13][14] - Huawei has successfully built a HarmonyOS ecosystem with over 30,000 native applications, demonstrating the viability of its technical path despite external challenges [14][15] - The new system is expected to save approximately 1.5 GB of RAM and improve overall system smoothness by 30% compared to previous versions [15][16] Summary by Sections Event Overview - On June 20, 2025, Huawei launched HarmonyOS 6 at the HDC 2025 Developer Conference, emphasizing AI upgrades and ecosystem growth, including a RMB 100 million "Harmony Starlight Program" to support developers [13][14] Technological Innovations - Huawei's competitive advantage is built on three core innovations: 1) HMAF framework enabling 8ms-level multi-agent coordination 2) Computing Routing Protocol allowing smartphones to utilize PC GPUs for 4K rendering, improving efficiency by 58% 3) DevEco CodeGenie achieving 91% code generation accuracy [15][16] Competitive Landscape - HarmonyOS 6 is reshaping the mobile operating system landscape, showing potential to challenge the Android/iOS duopoly, with a first-mover advantage in AI-native architecture [16]

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with an OUTPERFORM rating, setting a target price of HK$60.00 for Cirrus Aircraft (2507 HK) [2]. Core Insights - Cirrus Aircraft is recognized as a global leader in private aviation manufacturing and safety innovation, with a comprehensive product matrix covering both mid-range and high-end markets [3][4]. - The company has demonstrated strong financial growth, with revenue projected to increase from US$1.197 billion in 2024 to US$1.904 billion by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 19.4% [5][6]. - Cirrus Aircraft's innovative safety technologies, such as the whole aircraft parachute system (CAPS) and the FAA-certified Safe Return™ emergency landing system, set it apart in the industry [4][5]. Company Overview - Cirrus Aircraft, founded in 1984 and headquartered in Wisconsin, USA, has established itself as a pioneer in the private aviation sector, delivering over 10,000 SR2X series aircraft and over 600 Vision Jets by the end of 2024 [11][12]. - The company is primarily controlled by the Aviation Industry Corporation of China, which holds 84.97% of its shares [12]. Product Lines - The core product lines include the SR2X series single-engine piston aircraft and the Vision Jet, which cater to a wide range of market segments from entry-level to high-end private aviation [3][15]. - The SR22T model has maintained its position as the best-selling single-engine piston aircraft for 22 consecutive years, while the Vision Jet has been the top-selling business jet for six years [3][15]. Financial Performance - Cirrus Aircraft's revenue grew from US$587 million in 2020 to US$1.197 billion in 2024, with a net profit increase from US$36.11 million to US$121 million during the same period [5][18]. - The gross profit margin improved from 31.6% in 2020 to 34.6% in 2024, driven by product price increases and a higher proportion of high-margin products [18][24]. Market Trends - The global general aviation market is expected to experience rapid growth, driven by an increase in high-net-worth individuals, regional market expansion, and technological innovations [6][49]. - The demand for private aircraft is rising due to their advantages in mobility, privacy, safety, and flexibility, with the average price of private jets increasing due to rising material and labor costs [49][52]. Competitive Position - Cirrus Aircraft has a significant competitive advantage in the private aviation sector, with a product matrix that outperforms competitors in terms of cost-effectiveness, performance, and operational efficiency [69]. - The company achieved a market share of 23.9% in Q1 2025, with a 100% year-on-year increase in aircraft deliveries [68].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given text. Core Views of the Report - Global infrastructure and construction equipment: In the data center field, OpenAI is re - negotiating its cooperation with Microsoft, and Altman said the partnership is still highly beneficial. In energy construction, the US has introduced new methods for managing transmission system capacity, and NERC corrected the resource adequacy assessment of the MISO region. In Europe, Finland may use data - center backup power for power system balance, and France and Spain will increase power interconnection capacity. In Asia, the State Grid and China Southern Power Grid will invest over 825 billion yuan in their power grids in 2025. Hitachi Energy will provide digital solutions for a virtual power plant in Zhejiang [1]. - Global electrical and intelligent equipment: In the US, the gas turbine price index increased year - on - year in May 2025, and the production price indices of power and special transformers also rose year - on - year. In Europe, the production price index of motors, generators, and transformers manufacturing and distribution increased year - on - year in April 2025. In Asia, South Korea's transformer exports increased year - on - year in May 2025, and China's transformer exports also had a significant year - on - year growth. In the robotics field, the US mechanical manufacturing industrial product price index increased slightly in May 2025. ABB will launch a compact mobile robot, and Mitsubishi Electric developed a compact 7GHz GaN power amplifier module [2]. - Global energy industry: In the US, the average spot price of electricity in major regions increased week - on - week, and natural gas spot and futures prices also rose. In Europe, the day - ahead trading price of the power market generally increased. As of June 25, 2025, US WTI and Brent crude oil futures prices decreased week - on - week [3]. - Global new materials: In April 2025, the global actual market price of uranium was $52.17 per pound, with a month - on - month increase of 0.7% and a year - on - year decrease of 27.2% [3]. - Global defense and aerospace: In the US, the price indices of aircraft engine and engine component manufacturing increased year - on - year in May 2025. The US government expenditure defense price index in Q1 2025 increased year - on - year [4]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Global Market Review - US stock market: In recent trading days, major US stock indices showed strong upward momentum, breaking through key levels and reaching new highs. The market's risk appetite increased, and the index formed a stable support after the breakthrough [8]. - By industry: The market rally was comprehensive, with both cyclical and defensive sectors rising. Cyclical sectors such as finance, industry, and optional consumption led the rise, while defensive sectors like utilities and healthcare also had stable gains [9]. - By region: Global major capital markets showed a pattern of regional differentiation and convergence. Asian markets, including the Hang Seng Index and the Shanghai Composite Index, rebounded strongly. European major indices also rose steadily, and most major global indices closed higher at the end of the observation period [13]. 2. Global Infrastructure and Construction Equipment (1) Data Center - OpenAI and Microsoft are re - negotiating their partnership, with differences in key issues such as Microsoft's future shareholding in OpenAI. Altman also had a "productive" exchange with Trump on AI [14]. - Multiple data center construction projects are planned in the US, with a total investment of up to $21 billion in some projects [16]. (2) Energy Construction - In the US, FERC introduced a new method for managing transmission system capacity, and NERC corrected the resource adequacy assessment of the MISO region. - In Europe, Finland may use data - center backup power for power system balance, France and Spain will increase power interconnection capacity, and the EU's demand - side response can reduce system and grid investment [17][18][19]. (3) Construction Equipment - Cummins held its first National Central Warehouse Conference in China. Caterpillar released its Q1 2025 financial report, with a 10% year - on - year decrease in sales revenue. It also plans to invest $100 million in the next five years to help the future workforce acquire necessary skills [20]. 3. Global Electrical and Intelligent Equipment (1) Industrial Equipment Price Index - The gas turbine price index in the US increased year - on - year in May 2025, and the production price indices of power and special transformers, as well as transformers and power regulators, also rose year - on - year. - The production price index of motors, generators, and transformers manufacturing and distribution in Europe increased year - on - year in April 2025. - The US mechanical manufacturing industrial product price index increased slightly in May 2025 [2][33][42]. (2) Industrial Equipment Export Index - China's transformer exports in May 2025 maintained high growth, with significant year - on - year increases in exports to Asia and Europe. - South Korea's transformer exports in May 2025 increased year - on - year, with a significant increase in high - voltage exports [46][49]. 4. Global Energy Industry (1) Energy Equipment - SMR is expected to be the best energy solution for AI data centers after 2030, and the Trump administration may promote the SMR sector. The US is breaking the "approval bottleneck" of nuclear power deployment to accelerate SMR commercialization [53][54]. (2) Energy Development (1) US Power Market - US electricity consumption is expected to increase in 2025 and 2026, mainly from the commercial and industrial sectors. The average wholesale electricity price in most US regions is expected to be slightly higher in 2025 than in 2024. The average retail electricity price has been rising, and the average spot price of electricity in major regions increased week - on - week [56][57][62]. - Extreme weather and aging infrastructure are putting pressure on the US grid. Different power markets, such as CAISO, PJM, and ERCOT, have different operating conditions and challenges [66][74][79]. (2) European Power Market - The day - ahead trading price of the European power market generally increased, with significant increases in some countries such as the UK, Germany, and France [84]. (3) Oil and Gas Market - US natural gas spot and futures prices increased week - on - week, while the total持仓量 decreased. The supply and consumption of US natural gas both increased week - on - week. - The Northwest European natural gas market strengthened, while the Northeast Asian LNG market had a mild increase. - US oil drilling decreased week - on - week, while natural gas drilling increased. Crude oil futures prices decreased, and commercial crude and gasoline inventories decreased week - on - week [85][90][101]. 5. Global New Materials - In March 2025, the global uranium actual market price was $52.17 per pound, with a month - on - month increase of 0.7% and a year - on - year decrease of 27.2%. The uranium price is expected to rise in the short term, and Russia's restriction on uranium exports to the US may promote the self - sufficiency of the US nuclear power industry [107]. 6. Global Defense and Aerospace (1) Aerospace (1) Aerospace Industry Dynamics - Firefly Aerospace launched a new lunar imaging service, Qatar temporarily closed its airspace, and SpaceX successfully launched a manned mission [109]. - Boeing reached an agreement with the US Department of Justice and had strong performance in May 2025 [110]. (2) Aerospace Price Index - The price indices of US aircraft engine and engine component manufacturing increased year - on - year in May 2025 [112][115]. (3) Aerospace Air Traffic - In April 2025, the global total revenue passenger kilometers (RPK) increased by 8.0% year - on - year, and the available seat kilometers (ASK) increased by 6.5% year - on - year [118]. (2) Defense - NATO agreed to significantly increase the defense expenditure target to 5% of GDP. The US government expenditure defense price index in Q1 2025 increased year - on - year [121]. 7. Key Company Information and Comments - Some companies' stocks had price increases, such as TLN, VST, SMR, and OKLO [123]. 8. This Week's Report Selections - Reports cover various industries, including electrical machinery, energy, and strategy, with topics such as the demand for power transformers, water management, and SMR nuclear solutions [122].