第 42 周成交回升，外部波动下政策释放仍有预期 [Table_Industry] 房地产 股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.10.21 2025-10-21 [Table_Invest] 评级： 增持 本报告导读： 上周地产成交回升。近期政策面继续保持平静，国庆节假期后房地产成交逐步恢复 正常，外部因素波动下后续政策释放仍有预期。 投资要点： 证 券 研 究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 股 票 研 究 行 业 跟 踪 报 告 报 告 [Table_subIndustry] [Table_Report] [table_Authors] [Table_Summary] 上周大中城市成交回升。近期政策面继续保持平静，国庆节假期后房 地产成交逐步恢复正常，行业"止跌回稳"趋势不变，外部因素波动下后 续政策释放仍有预期。 上周大中城市新房成交环比回升：2025 年第 42 周 30 大中城市新房成 交面积为 214 万平，环比前一周 281.1%，同比 2024 年-20.96%。其中 一线城市销售面积 54 万平，环比前一周 235.9%，同比 2024 年-33%。 二线城市销售面积 103 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the innovative drug and medical device industry, highlighting key targets for investment [5][24]. Core Insights - The innovative drug sector is experiencing high growth, with a focus on companies such as Jiangsu Heng Rui Medicine, Hansoh Pharmaceutical Group, and others. The report emphasizes the potential for value re-evaluation in these firms [5][24]. - Recent business development (BD) deals in the innovative drug sector are expected to catalyze market activity, with notable transactions including Jiangsu Heng Rui Medicine's agreement with Kite for a $1.20 billion upfront payment, potentially reaching $15.20 billion in total [5][24]. - The A-share pharmaceutical sector underperformed the broader market in the third week of October 2025, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling by 1.5% and the SW Biopharma index declining by 2.5% [7][18]. Summary by Sections 1. Continuous Focus on Innovative Drugs and Medical Devices - The report emphasizes the high growth potential in innovative drugs, with key investment targets including Jiangsu Heng Rui Medicine, Hansoh Pharmaceutical Group, and others. Related targets include CSPC Innovation Pharmaceutical [5][24]. 2. A-Share Pharmaceutical Sector Performance - In the third week of October 2025, the A-share pharmaceutical sector saw a decline of 2.5%, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index, which fell by 1.5%. The report notes that the sector's premium relative to all A-shares is currently at a normal level, with a relative premium rate of 74.5% [7][14][21]. 3. Hong Kong and U.S. Pharmaceutical Sector Performance - The report indicates that the Hong Kong and U.S. pharmaceutical sectors also underperformed, with the Hang Seng Healthcare index dropping by 5.8% and the S&P 500 Healthcare index increasing by only 0.7% during the same period [18][24].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the computer sector, suggesting a positive outlook for the industry [1][12]. Core Insights - The metropolitan "millisecond computing" initiative emphasizes low latency and high computing power requirements, with specific goals set for 2027 [12]. - Shanghai's smart terminal action plan aims to strengthen intelligent computing terminals and create computing clusters, promoting the application of core components like GPUs and interconnect modules [12]. - The emergence of domestic EDA and high-end testing equipment indicates a clear pace of domestic substitution in the industry [12]. Summary by Sections Metropolitan "Millisecond Computing" Initiative - The initiative sets three clear goals: computing center interconnection under 1 millisecond, resource access under 1 millisecond, and terminal network delay under 10 milliseconds by 2027 [12]. - Emphasis on the application of 400Gbps optical transmission and new network protocols is expected to benefit optical transmission, networks, edge nodes, and scheduling software [12]. Shanghai Smart Terminal Action Plan - The plan aims to enhance the capabilities of intelligent computing terminals and create a billion-level scale for local enterprises [12]. - It promotes the mass production of AI computers and smartphones, as well as the development of plug-and-play edge solutions [12]. Domestic EDA and Testing Equipment - New domestic EDA software and high-end testing equipment have been introduced, showcasing advancements in high-end measurement and industrial software [12]. - Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing's Q3 results exceeded expectations, indicating strong demand driven by AI and high-performance computing [12].

Core Insights - The report indicates that the Hong Kong stock market has officially entered a new bull market starting January 2024, marking the sixth complete bull-bear cycle since 2003 [1][5] - Historical data shows that during previous bull markets, the Hang Seng Index (HSI) experienced an average maximum drawdown of approximately 7% lasting about 12 trading days, while the Hang Seng Technology Index (HSTI) had an average maximum drawdown of around 8.8% [6][11] - The report emphasizes that the current market adjustment is significant but aligns with historical averages, suggesting that positive signals such as improved US-China relations and domestic policy initiatives could support market stability [1][4] Market Adjustment Analysis - The report analyzes the recent market adjustment, noting that since October 2, the HSI has seen a maximum decline of 8.2% and the HSTI has dropped by 14.6%, which is significant compared to historical small drawdowns [4][20] - Small drawdowns typically occur after rapid market increases and are often triggered by minor negative factors, while larger drawdowns are associated with liquidity tightening and substantial negative shocks [8][12] Future Market Outlook - The report forecasts that the bull market in Hong Kong stocks will continue into the fourth quarter, driven by optimism in the AI sector and a recovery in the internet sector [20][22] - It highlights that the technology sector remains the main focus, with potential benefits from AI developments and a favorable asset structure in Hong Kong [20][22] - The report also notes that foreign capital may return to the Hong Kong market if the Federal Reserve continues to lower interest rates and if US-China trade relations stabilize [22][23] Investment Opportunities - The report suggests that Hong Kong's internet giants are likely to benefit from the AI narrative, with significant investments expected in AI infrastructure [20][22] - It also points out that the low interest rate environment and policies promoting dividends could enhance the attractiveness of Hong Kong stocks, particularly in new consumption and innovative pharmaceuticals [23][24]

Domestic Macro - On October 11, the State Council Information Office held a press conference on "High-Quality Completion of the 14th Five-Year Plan" [4] - On October 12, the Ministry of Commerce stated that China's rare earth export controls are not prohibitive and that applications meeting regulations will be permitted [4][5] - On October 14, Premier Li Qiang emphasized the need for enhanced counter-cyclical adjustments during a meeting with economic experts and entrepreneurs [4][5] - The People's Bank of China announced a 600 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation on October 15, with a cumulative net injection of 400 billion yuan for the month [4][5] - On October 16, China expressed an open attitude towards a new round of Sino-U.S. economic and trade talks [4][5] Industry Policy - On October 10, the Ministry of Natural Resources released guidelines for optimizing urban stock space, marking it as a key task for future land use planning [5][18] - The Financial Regulatory Bureau issued a notice to strengthen regulation of non-auto insurance businesses, focusing on issues of non-standard operations and irrational competition [18] - The central bank solicited opinions on the "Management Measures for Identifying Beneficial Owners of Financial Institutions" [18] - On October 12, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and six other departments issued a plan to promote service-oriented manufacturing innovation [18] - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) released a management method for energy-saving and carbon reduction investments, supporting key industries [19] Local Policy - On October 10, Shanghai adjusted the rules for the 2025 automobile trade-in subsidy program [6][20] - The Hainan Free Trade Port Tourism Regulations will take effect on December 1, 2025, gradually relaxing restrictions on foreign investment in tourism [6][20] - On October 11, Shanghai issued measures to accelerate the cultivation of future industries, focusing on six key areas [20] - The second batch of Shanghai Free Trade Zone innovation zone construction plans was released on October 15 [20] Overseas Dynamics - On October 10, China announced countermeasures against U.S. restrictions on the shipbuilding industry, implementing special port fees for U.S. vessels starting October 14 [9][19] - On October 11, the global cryptocurrency market experienced a significant crash, with over 19 billion USD in contracts liquidated in one day [9] - On October 12, the Dutch government froze 14.7 billion USD of Chinese semiconductor assets [9] - On October 15, China filed a complaint with the WTO against India's electric vehicle and battery subsidy measures [9]

Market Performance - Developed markets experienced a general rebound, with MSCI Global up by 1.0%, MSCI Developed up by 1.2%, and MSCI Emerging down by 0.4% [6][10] - In the developed markets, the South Korean Composite Index showed the strongest performance with a gain of 3.8%, while the German DAX had the weakest performance with a decline of 1.7% [6][10] - In the emerging markets, the Mexican MXX index performed best with a rise of 1.9%, while the ChiNext Index was the worst performer, down by 5.7% [6][10] Trading Sentiment - The VIX index remained at a high level, indicating elevated market volatility [23] - Trading volumes varied across global markets, with the Shanghai Composite Index and Hang Seng Index seeing increases, while the S&P 500 and Nikkei 225 experienced declines [23][25] - Investor sentiment in Hong Kong was at a historical low, while North American sentiment was at a historical high [23] Earnings Expectations - Earnings expectations for the technology and financial sectors in Europe and the U.S. were revised upward [68] - The 2025 EPS forecast for the Hang Seng Index was downgraded from 2060 to 2055, while the S&P 500's EPS forecast was upgraded from 268 to 269 [68][71] - The Eurozone STOXX50 index maintained its 2025 EPS forecast at 332, with the technology sector seeing the largest upward revision [68][71] Economic Expectations - Economic expectations in Central Europe improved, with the European economic surprise index rising [6] - The U.S. economic surprise index declined due to ongoing government shutdowns and regional banking issues, while the Chinese economic surprise index also fell [6] Fund Flows - The market is pricing in two potential rate cuts by the Federal Reserve by the end of the year, with expectations rising from the previous week [54][59] - Recent fund flows indicated significant inflows into the Hong Kong stock market, totaling 78 billion HKD, with notable contributions from the Stock Connect program [65][67] Valuation Metrics - Developed markets' PE and PB ratios were reported at 24x and 3.9x, respectively, indicating high valuation levels compared to historical norms [32] - Emerging markets showed a decline in valuation metrics, with PE and PB ratios at 16.6x and 2.1x, respectively [36] - Sector valuations in the Hong Kong market showed healthcare and technology sectors with the highest PE ratios, while energy and financial sectors had the lowest [45]

Group 1 - The report indicates a significant net outflow of northbound funds, estimated at 112 billion yuan for the week of October 13-17, 2025, compared to a net outflow of 46 billion yuan the previous week [6][11] - The report highlights that flexible foreign capital experienced a net outflow of 50 billion yuan during the same week, up from 17 billion yuan the week before [6][11] - The top active stocks in the northbound trading during the week included Ningde Times with a total transaction amount of 222 billion yuan, accounting for 16% of the total trading amount for that stock [6][11] Group 2 - In the Hong Kong market, foreign capital increased its positions in the pharmaceutical and semiconductor sectors while reducing exposure to large financial institutions, with a total inflow of 78 billion HKD for the week of October 8-14, 2025 [11][13] - Stable foreign capital saw an inflow of 19 billion HKD, while flexible foreign capital experienced a significant outflow of 489 billion HKD during the same period [11][12] - The report notes that the main inflows for stable foreign capital were in pharmaceuticals (30 billion HKD) and semiconductors (20 billion HKD), while the main outflows were from ETFs (-30 billion HKD) and non-ferrous metals (-21 billion HKD) [13][14] Group 3 - In the Asia-Pacific market, foreign capital flowed into Japan, with a net inflow of 10,716 billion yen for the week ending October 6, 2025, while India saw an outflow of 2.7 billion USD in September [21][22] - Cumulatively, Japan has seen a net inflow of 8.9 trillion yen since the beginning of 2023, while India has experienced a total net inflow of 13.5 billion USD since 2020 [21][22] Group 4 - In the US and European markets, global mutual fund inflows into the US equity market amounted to 3.6 billion USD in August, reversing a previous outflow of 35 billion USD [24][25] - In Europe, the net inflows for the UK, Germany, and France were -0.59 billion USD, 1.13 billion USD, and 1.6 billion USD respectively for August [24][25]

Group 1: Market Trends and Technologies - ESUN (Ethernet for scale-up networking) has gained traction with major players like Meta, Broadcom, and AMD, indicating a positive outlook for Ethernet-related companies such as Broadcom, ANET, and CSCO[4] - The market reaction to ALAB and CRDO suggests they may be oversold, as ESUN and UAlink are not necessarily in conflict, allowing for continued use of PCIe/CXL interconnects[4] - Ciena predicts a sixfold increase in DCI bandwidth over the next five years, highlighting significant growth potential in the data center interconnect market[4] Group 2: Product Developments and Performance - AMD's Helios Rack features 72 MI450 GPUs, offering up to 1.4 EF of FP8 performance and 2.9 EF of FP4 performance, with a total HBM4 memory of 31 TB and bandwidth of 1.4 PB/s[4] - Oracle is the first major customer for the MI450, with an initial deployment of 50,000 GPUs starting in Q3 2026, and Meta is expected to follow as a significant customer[4] - The value of the 1.6T optical module in the GB300 NVL72 rack has doubled from a ratio of 1:2.5 to 1:5, with expected shipments increasing from 8 million to over 20 million units by 2026[4]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to multiple companies including Nike, Midea Group, JD Group, Haier Smart Home, Gree Electric Appliances, Anta Sports, and others, while Lulu Lemon is rated as "Neutral" [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights that various sectors within the discretionary industry are experiencing continuous rotation, with price pullbacks presenting buying opportunities [4][11]. - The performance of different sectors is analyzed, with jewelry, overseas cosmetics, luxury goods, and snacks showing positive growth, while domestic cosmetics and gaming sectors are underperforming [6][13]. Sector Performance Overview - Weekly performance shows jewelry leading with a 9.9% increase, followed by overseas cosmetics at 6.8%, and luxury goods at 5.5%. Domestic cosmetics experienced a slight decline of 0.3% [11][12]. - Year-to-date performance indicates jewelry has risen by 179.1%, domestic cosmetics by 50.4%, and overseas cosmetics by 42.3%, while overseas sportswear has declined by 17.7% [11][12]. Valuation Analysis - Most sectors are currently valued below their average over the past five years, with the expected PE for overseas sportswear at 31.9 times, domestic sportswear at 13.4 times, and jewelry at 27.2 times, indicating potential for growth [9][14]. - The report notes that the expected PE for various sectors in 2025 is lower than their historical averages, suggesting that there may be undervalued opportunities in the market [14].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for Stella International, but it indicates a positive outlook based on strong order visibility and capacity expansion plans. Core Insights - Stella International reported total revenue of USD 1.179 billion for the first three quarters of 2025, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 1.7%. In the third quarter alone, revenue reached USD 402 million, up 3.7% year-over-year, driven by a 7.8% increase in shipment volume, although partially offset by a 3.8% decline in average selling price (ASP) [1][6][7]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Shipment Performance - In 3Q25, the footwear manufacturing revenue was USD 392 million, marking a 3.6% year-over-year increase, with shipment volume approximately 13.9 million pairs, up 7.8% year-over-year. The growth in shipment volume was influenced by a low base effect from the previous year due to early shipments related to the Paris Olympics [2][7]. ASP and Product Mix - The ASP for the quarter was around USD 28.2 per pair, down 3.8% year-over-year, primarily due to a shift in product mix towards lower-priced sports footwear. Management noted that ASP changes are mainly driven by customer mix rather than raw material costs, with potential for recovery if new capacity is allocated to high-end clients [3][4][8]. Capacity Expansion and Customer Demand - Management highlighted that new sports brands have joined as customers, and fourth-quarter orders are largely secured, indicating high order visibility for the next two to three years. The company plans to accelerate capacity expansion to meet this demand while optimizing resource allocation [3][8][9]. Operational Efficiency - The efficiency of factories in Indonesia and the Philippines is improving, with the Indonesian factory showing continuous improvement since June. The Philippine factory has reduced production lines to prioritize stable yield, adhering to a principle of minimizing waste [9][10]. Cost Management and Capital Expenditure - Cost pressures remain manageable, with an estimated tariff sharing impact of around USD 8 million for 2025. Management plans to adopt a more cautious approach to capital expenditure, with expectations for an increase to support mid- to long-term growth needs [10][11]. Shareholder Returns - The company commits to maintaining a payout ratio of around 70% in 2025 and 2026, with additional returns to shareholders through share repurchases and special dividends, aiming to restore profit margins to normalized levels close to 12% [11].