证券研究报告|宏观点评报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 04 月 09 日 [Table_Title] 资产配置日报：还治其人之身 | | | 复盘与思考: 4 月 9 日，美方关税加码，但"国家队"托底力量仍在延续，股市低开高走；债市仍在等待具体政策落地， 定价相对纠结。 复盘各类资产表现，股市，大盘表现依旧稳健，上证指数、沪深 300 指数、中证红利上涨 1.31%、0.99%、 0.30%；科技板块交易国产替代逻辑，科创 50、科创综指、恒生科技上涨 4.31%、3.78%、2.64%；小微盘也备受 青睐，博弈反弹逻辑，中证 2000、万得微盘股指上涨 2.99%、3.36%，北证 50 大涨 10.27%。债市，10 年、30 年 国债活跃券收益率下行 3.3bp、3.0bp 至 1.63%、1.83%，10 年、30 年国债期货主力合约上涨 0.09%、0.16%。 商品方面，美股休盘期间，贵金属又一次开启修复行情，沪金、沪银上涨 1.72%、1.06%，伦敦金、纽约金 价格均一度重返 3050 美元/盎司。国内其他商品方面，工业金属与黑色系尚未定价潜在的政策利好，沪铜、螺纹 钢、铁矿石 ...

Investment Rating - Industry rating: Recommended [1] Core Viewpoints - The announcement by the State Taxation Administration on April 8 promotes the "immediate purchase and refund" service for outbound tourists, expanding it from pilot cities to nationwide implementation [2][3] - The "immediate purchase and refund" policy aims to enhance the shopping experience for foreign tourists by allowing them to receive tax refunds at the point of sale, potentially increasing their shopping willingness and expenditure [3] - The policy is expected to significantly improve the convenience of tax refunds for foreign tourists, thereby boosting their consumption in China [3] Summary by Relevant Sections Event Overview - The "immediate purchase and refund" service measures have been clearly defined and are set to be implemented nationwide, enhancing the shopping experience for foreign tourists [2] Analysis and Judgment - The policy allows for tax refunds to be processed at the time of purchase, making it more appealing for tourists to shop [3] - In Beijing, the sales of tax refund goods exceeded 900 million yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 140%, with an average spending of approximately 230 yuan per tourist [4] - The implementation of this policy has shown significant positive effects in pilot cities, leading to substantial growth in sales and tax refunds [4] Investment Recommendations - The "immediate purchase and refund" policy is expected to drive growth in inbound shopping consumption, benefiting traditional department stores, duty-free retailers, and the tourism hotel industry [8] - Key beneficiaries include companies like China Duty Free Group, Wangfujing, Yonghui Supermarket, and others involved in retail and tourism [8] - The rise of domestic brands and their increasing recognition among global consumers presents additional investment opportunities [8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [1][6] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a profit recovery in 2024, with a significant increase in revenue and net profit projected for the coming years [2][5] - The DVA (Dynamic Vapor Absorption) technology is nearing industrialization, with promising applications in tire manufacturing, which could enhance the company's market position [4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported a revenue of 5.301 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.65%, and a net profit of 141 million yuan, up 0.67% year-on-year [2][9] - The fourth quarter of 2024 saw a revenue of 1.532 billion yuan, representing a 29.77% year-on-year growth and a 5.87% quarter-on-quarter increase [2] Product Sales and Margins - The sales volume of key products such as modified plastics, thermoplastic elastomers, and color masterbatches increased in 2024, with respective sales volumes of 38.80, 4.72, and 2.60 million tons [3] - The gross margin for Q4 improved to 13.42%, an increase of 2.28 percentage points from Q3 [3] Research and Development - The company has made significant advancements in DVA technology, which is expected to start mass testing in early 2025, positioning it as a leader in this innovative field [4] - The company has increased its R&D expenditure by 39.75% in 2024, reflecting a commitment to innovation and product development [3] Future Projections - Revenue forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are set at 57.03 billion yuan, 64.51 billion yuan, and 76.20 billion yuan respectively, with net profits projected at 2.06 billion yuan, 3.06 billion yuan, and 4.41 billion yuan [5][9] - The expected EPS for the same years is 0.45 yuan, 0.67 yuan, and 0.97 yuan, indicating a positive growth trajectory [5][9]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended" [2] Core Viewpoints - The adjustment of insurance funds' equity asset regulatory ratios provides insurance companies with more investment space, increasing the upper limit of equity asset allocation by 5 percentage points for certain solvency ratios [2][3] - The new policy encourages insurance funds to invest more in strategic emerging industries and optimizes the investment direction of insurance capital [3][4] - The coordinated efforts of multiple departments are expected to stabilize the A-share market and enhance the long-term investment advantages of insurance capital [4][5] Summary by Sections Event Overview - On April 8, the National Financial Supervision Administration issued a notice adjusting the regulatory ratio of insurance funds' equity assets, which includes raising the upper limit of equity asset allocation and relaxing the regulatory requirements for tax-deferred pension ratios [1] Analysis and Judgment - The new regulations allow for a 5 percentage point increase in equity asset allocation limits for insurance companies with solvency ratios of 150%-200%, 250%-300%, and above 350%, consolidating the previous seven tiers into five [2] - For major listed insurance companies, the equity asset allocation limits have been adjusted, with China Pacific Insurance and China Insurance increasing by 5 percentage points to 40%, translating to an increase in equity allocation limits of approximately 141.745 billion and 88.319 billion respectively [2][9] Investment Suggestions - The report suggests that insurance companies should steadily advance product transformation and channel integration, which is expected to lower liability costs and alleviate pressure from interest rate differentials over the long term [5] - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the industry, specifically recommending China Ping An and China Pacific Insurance for their stable liabilities, and China Life and New China Life for their equity flexibility [5]

证券研究报告|固收研究报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 04 月 09 日 [Table_Title] 城投债审核趋严，新收益荒时代 [Table_Title2] 城投解惑系列之十二 [Table_Summary] ►发债"新指引"整体趋严，细节上有何变化？ 我们认为在指引修订后，城投发债审核整体趋严，主要体现在强化 信息披露、防范虚假转型、压实中介责任三个方面。首先要求城投 企业增加信息披露的颗粒度，侧重城投成色、偿债能力及盈利能 力。城投成色方面，新指引新增总资产构成、营业收入构成、净利 润中地方政府补贴金额和占比的披露要求。其次，新增多个条款防 范城投企业虚假转型，一方面控制城投企业和政府的往来，另一方 面打击城投企业通过"伪贸易"扩大收入虚假转型。此外，城投企 业通过拼凑资产和组装转型也受到遏制，需要突出主业，真实转 型。最后，新指引还压实了中介机构的责任，新增多项核查义务。 ►今年以来城投各渠道融资情况如何？ 2025 年一季度，城投债发行、净融资相较去年同期明显下降，一方 面受债市收益率上行影响，另一方面可能与新指引出台前就有窗口 指导政策收紧有关。2025 年 1-3 月城投债发行 ...

证券研究报告/行业深度 研究报告 运动控制专题研究： 人形机器人核心部件，高壁垒环节 【华西机械团队】 分析师：黄瑞连 SAC NO：S1120524030001 邮箱：huangrl@hx168.com.cn 分析师：王宁 SAC NO：S1120524080002 邮箱：wangning@hx168.com.cn 2025年4月 核心观点 运动控制系统：人形机器人核心部件，高壁垒环节。人形机器人的感知决策需要依赖大模型提供的"大脑"，肢体控制则依赖于"小脑"—运动控 制系统。先进的运动控制技术是人形机器人等高端装备实现高速、高精度、高实时响应作业性能的关键，完整的运动控制系统包括人机交互界面、控 制器、驱动器、电机等部件，其中控制器、驱动器、电机三者相互联系，共同组成运动控制系统的主干。运动控制产品集成计算机控制、微电子等多 项技术，并需要长期深入工业一线应用场景进行不断的知识反馈、经验吸收和技术迭代，是基础研究和应用实践紧密结合的高竞争壁垒领域。人形机 器人的自由度明显超出普通高端装备，为运动控制带来了更高的挑战，也带来了更高的市场空间，参考工业母机行业，高档数控系统价值约占高端数 控机床成本的20%- ...

证券研究报告|策略点评报告 分析与判断: 风险提示 宏观经济超预期波动、海外流动性风险、海外黑天鹅事件等。 [Table_Author] 分析师：李立峰 分析师：张海燕 邮箱：lilf@hx168.com.cn 邮箱：zhanghy5@hx168.com.cn SAC NO：S1120520090003 SAC NO：S1120521040002 请仔细阅读在本报告尾部的重要法律声明 1 [Table_Date] 2025 年 04 月 08 日 [Table_Title] A 股的韧性与积极布局的良机已现 [Table_Title2] 策略点评 [Table_Summary] 事件概述： 4 月 3 日以来，美国"对等关税"政策引发全球资产巨震，VIX 恐慌指数一度升至 60，仅次于 2024 年 8 月日 元套息交易平仓和 2020 年 3 月全球疫情引发的流动性冲击时期，全球投资者风险偏好下降，大类资产步入高 波动阶段。4 月 3 日-7 日，全球股指暴跌，黄金、原油、铜铝等大宗商品普遍下跌，美元指数快速下跌后有 所反弹，人民币兑美元汇率贬值。4 月 8 日，A 股和港股主要股指纷纷反弹，市场情绪有所好 ...

证券研究报告|宏观点评报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 04 月 08 日 [Table_Title] 资产配置日报：第一张底牌 复盘与思考: 4 月 8 日，"国家队"托底，多数股指迎来反弹；债市受到资金收敛影响，叠加股债跷跷板扰动，出现 2-4bp 幅度的调整。 复盘各类资产表现，股市，大盘表现更为强势，上证指数、沪深 300、中证红利分别上涨 1.58%、1.71%、 2.56%；科技表现同样亮眼，科创 50、创业板指、恒生科技分别上涨 1.72%、1.83%、3.79%；小微盘行情则相对 偏弱，中证 2000 下跌 0.52%，万得微盘股指仅上涨 0.64%。债市，10 年、30 年国债活跃券收益率均上行 2.3bp 至 1.66%、1.86%；10 年、30 年国债期货主力合约分别下跌 0.17%、0.54%。 商品市场方面，贵金属依旧在选择方向，美股略微出现止跌迹象，流动性冲击压力或在缓解，带动黄金与白 银的下跌趋势暂缓，不过从金价表现来看，3000 美元/盎司成为伦敦金继续上涨的阻力位；沪金、沪银全天涨幅分 别为 0.37%，0.26%。国内其他商品中，工业金属、黑色系则重新定价需求 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Insights - The company reported a significant increase in revenue and achieved profitability in 2024, with total revenue reaching 145.18 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 305.04%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 5.95 billion yuan, marking a turnaround from losses [2][3] - The high-end strategy has shown remarkable results, with a notable increase in gross margin to 26.21%, up by 16.29 percentage points year-on-year, driven by strong sales of high-end models like the AITO M9 [4] - The company's advanced manufacturing capabilities, including a leading super factory and integrated die-casting technology, are expected to support new product launches, including the updated AITO M9 and the new AITO M8 [5] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a record revenue of 145.18 billion yuan, with a net profit of 5.95 billion yuan, indicating a significant recovery from previous losses [2][3] - The fourth quarter of 2024 alone saw revenue of 38.55 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 101.18%, and a net profit of 1.91 billion yuan, reflecting a 1325.88% increase [3] Strategic Developments - The high-end vehicle sales reached 426,900 units in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 182.8%, with the AITO M9 being a standout product, selling over 150,000 units and leading the luxury car segment in China for 11 consecutive months [4] - The company invested 7.05 billion yuan in R&D in 2024, a 58.9% increase, with R&D personnel constituting one-third of the total workforce [4] Future Outlook - The company has adjusted its revenue forecasts for 2025 and 2026, projecting revenues of 185.68 billion yuan and 217.62 billion yuan respectively, while introducing a new forecast for 2027 at 242.58 billion yuan [6] - The earnings per share (EPS) estimates have been revised to 6.16 yuan for 2025, 7.74 yuan for 2026, and 9.36 yuan for 2027, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 18.47, 14.70, and 12.16 [6]

证券研究报告|行业点评报告 ► 人身险：1-2 月累计保费承压，其中 2 月增速有所改善 2025 年 1-2 月人身险公司原保费收入 11,951 亿元，同比-2.6%。其中寿险/意外险/健康险原保费收入分别 为 10,209/70/1,672 亿元，分别同比-3.5%/-1.1%/+3.0%。我们认为，前两个月累计保费承压主要系 1）前期 "炒停售"导致需求一定程度提前透支，2）2025 年各险企销售重点转向分红险、但分红险的市场接受度仍待 提升，3）"报行合一"下渠道销售积极性或有所减弱。2 月单月，人身险公司原保费收入 3,328 亿元，同比 +2.6%，其中寿险/意外险/健康险原保费收入 2,646/27/654 亿元，分别同比+2.4%/+6.0%/+3.2%，环比 1 月均改 善，我们认为主要系春节"错月效应"下的低基数影响。2025 年 1-2 月保户投资款新增交费（以万能险为主） 2,046 亿元，同比-6.4%，其中 2 月单月同比-26.4%；1-2 月投连险独立账户新增交费 20 亿元，同比-6.1%，其 中 2 月单月同比-10.8%。 ► 财产险：1-2 月车险和非车险保费均实现稳 ...