Tariff Overview - The U.S. implemented reciprocal tariffs with a baseline rate of 10% on April 3, 2025, affecting major economies such as Vietnam (46%), China (34%), and the EU (20%) among others[1][9]. - The tariffs are based on the IEEPA from 1977, declaring a national emergency to impose these tariffs[1][9]. Economic Impact - The tariffs are expected to increase U.S. inflation, with a potential price increase of approximately 2.9% if the full 20% tariff burden is passed to consumers[2][10]. - The short-term impact on China's exports to the U.S. could result in a decline of about 5% in overall exports, with a mid-term effect of approximately 7%[3][20][23]. GDP Effects - A 5% decline in exports could directly reduce the current GDP by about 0.9%, potentially exceeding 1% when considering downstream effects[3][20][23]. - The estimated impact on GDP from the tariffs could be lower than projected due to U.S. importers potentially underreporting import prices[24]. Market Reactions - The initial phase post-tariff implementation may see a decrease in market risk appetite, favoring bonds over equities[4][42]. - A second phase may involve domestic policy responses that could restore risk appetite, benefiting risk assets[4][43]. Trade Dynamics - The tariffs may disrupt re-export trade, with an estimated impact of around $40.68 billion, equivalent to 1.6% of total exports and about 0.3% of GDP[3][33]. - The U.S. trade deficit with China is projected to decrease by approximately $75.7 billion annually, while surpluses with other countries may increase by $365.1 billion[3][33]. Structural Industry Impact - Consumer goods and machinery exports from China are likely to face significant challenges due to the tariffs, with electronics and appliances being particularly affected[4][38]. - The automotive sector may experience limited direct impact, as the U.S. is not a primary export market for Chinese vehicles[4][39]. Risk Considerations - There are risks associated with unexpected domestic fiscal and monetary policies, as well as potential retaliatory measures from the U.S. trading partners[4][44].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The company's revenue, net profit attributable to the parent, and cash flow from operating activities for 2024 are projected to be CNY 3.047 billion, CNY 126 million, and -CNY 1.098 billion respectively, with year-on-year growth of 21.4%, 20.8%, and a significant decline in cash flow [2] - The decline in performance is attributed to a decrease in gross margin due to falling cotton prices, increased inventory costs, and a rise in financial expenses [2] - The company plans to distribute CNY 1.8 per 10 shares and increase its share capital by 3 shares, resulting in a dividend payout ratio of 21.2% and a dividend yield of 1.5% [2] Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - The company’s revenue from color yarn, trade yarn, processing fees, and other businesses for 2024 is expected to be CNY 2.590 billion, CNY 230 million, CNY 125 million, and CNY 78 million respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 16.85%, 29.80%, 41.90%, and not applicable [3] - The gross margin for 2024 is projected to be 12.26%, an increase of 0.77 percentage points year-on-year, driven by improved capacity utilization [4] - The net profit margin and the net profit margin excluding non-recurring items are expected to be 4.14% and 3.68% respectively, with slight year-on-year changes [4] Financial Performance - The company’s total revenue for 2024 is projected at CNY 3.047 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 21.4% [9] - The net profit attributable to the parent for 2024 is expected to be CNY 126 million, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 20.8% [9] - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is forecasted to be CNY 1.07, with a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 11 times based on the closing price of CNY 11.99 on April 7, 2025 [7][9] Cash Flow and Inventory - The company’s cash flow from operating activities is projected to be negative at -CNY 1.098 billion for 2024, primarily due to increases in inventory and accounts receivable [2][5] - The inventory at the end of 2024 is expected to be CNY 1.456 billion, a 127% increase year-on-year, largely due to the production ramp-up of subsidiaries [5][6] Future Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from new product lines and expansion projects, with a forecasted revenue of CNY 4.074 billion in 2026 and CNY 4.357 billion in 2027 [9] - The anticipated stabilization of domestic cotton prices and potential increases in imported cotton prices may positively impact future profitability [7]

证券研究报告|行业点评报告 分析与判断: ► 贸易战全面升级，对美出口贸易面临更大挑战和不确定。 [Table_Date] 2025 年 04 月 08 日 [Table_Title] 贸易战全面升级，紧密依靠内需应对风高浪急 [Table_Title2] 行业重大事件点评 行业评级: 推荐 [Table_Summary] 事件概述: 4 月 2 日，美国总统签署"对等关税"行政令，宣布对所有贸易伙伴设立 10%的"最低基准关税"，其中对中国 征收关税税率达 34%，4 月 9 日起生效，"对等关税"征税比例超出市场预期。作为回应，4 月 4 日，中国政府宣 布对原产于美国所有进口商品加征 34%关税。中美贸易战呈现全面升级态势。 根据贸易夜航的报道，2024 年 1-11 月，我国对美出口额为 4756 亿美元，占出口总额的 14.6%，较 2002 年巅峰 时期的 21.5%下降了 6.9pct，中国对美出口依赖度呈现持续下降趋势，但比重仍然相对不低。特朗普自 1 月重 新上台后，多次宣称对中国进口商品加征关税，加速中美贸易脱钩，目标是将中国在美进口贸易额比重从 14% 降低至 4%，这意味着中国对美出口 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 3.161 billion yuan in Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 17.93%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 803 million yuan, up 12.66% year-on-year [2] - The company's gross margin for Q1 2025 was 36.18%, a decrease of 2.87 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 25.41%, down 1.19 percentage points year-on-year [3] - The company is expected to maintain stable rental income from its core business while also benefiting from new market expansions and rental increases, with projected revenues of 19.915 billion yuan, 26.429 billion yuan, and 32.537 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 26.5%, 32.7%, and 23.1% [4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 3.161 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 17.93%, and a net profit of 803 million yuan, reflecting a 12.66% increase year-on-year [2] - The operating cash flow was negative at -278 million yuan, a decline of 254.44% year-on-year [2] Business Operations - The company experienced a transaction volume of 40.29 billion yuan in January-February 2025, which is a 16.4% increase year-on-year [3] - The company has a diverse product range with over 2.1 million SKUs, maintaining strong competitiveness in the global market [3] Market Outlook - The company is expected to see significant growth from new business initiatives such as Chinagoods and Yiwupay, alongside a planned annual rental increase of no less than 5% from 2024 to 2026 [4] - The projected net profit for 2025 is 4.064 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 32.2% [6]

Core Insights - The report highlights significant declines in domestic equity markets, with major indices such as the Shanghai Composite Index and CSI 300 dropping by 7.34% and 7.05% respectively, reflecting a broader trend of market volatility influenced by tariff policies and external economic pressures [1][2][6] - The bond market has shown a strong performance as a safe-haven asset, with yields on 10-year and 30-year government bonds decreasing by 7.8 basis points and 8.3 basis points, respectively, indicating a flight to safety amid market turmoil [2][3][4] Domestic Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3096.58, down 245.43 points, representing a decline of 7.34% [1] - The CSI 300 Index fell to 3589.44, down 272.06 points, a decrease of 7.05% [1] - The ChiNext Index and the Hang Seng Tech Index experienced even steeper declines, with drops of 12.50% and 17.16% respectively [2][6] Bond Market Analysis - The report notes a significant drop in yields for long-term government bonds, with the 10-year and 30-year bond yields reaching historical lows of 1.64% and 1.83% [2][4] - The central bank's actions, including a net withdrawal of 151.7 billion yuan through reverse repos, have contributed to a tightening of liquidity, impacting short-term borrowing costs [4] Commodity Market Insights - Gold prices initially fell to 2975 USD/oz before rebounding to 3054 USD/oz, indicating volatility in precious metals as investors seek liquidity [3] - Industrial metals and other commodities faced declines due to tariff impacts, with copper and rebar prices dropping by 7.01% and 2.59% respectively [3] Sector Performance - The report identifies public utilities as a sector that meets the criteria for being an oversold industry, with 24.63% of stocks falling below their pre-September 24 closing prices [8][11] - Other sectors such as environmental protection, non-bank financials, food and beverage, and telecommunications also show potential for recovery based on their performance metrics [8][11] Market Outlook - Despite the current market downturn, the report suggests that the underlying logic of "policy + technology" driving the market since September 24 remains intact, indicating potential for a rebound [6][8] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring tariff impacts and earnings announcements as key factors influencing market volatility in April [7][8]

证券研究报告|行业研究周报 [Table_Date] 2025 年 04 月 07 日 [Table_Title] 清明假期旅游消费韧性十足，关注旅游旺季 将至出行链投资机会 [Table_Title2] 社服零售行业周报 [Table_Summary] ► 清明假期国内旅游收入同比+6.7%，山岳景区及高 品质休闲游目的地表现亮眼 经文化和旅游部数据中心测算，清明节假期3天，全国国内出 游 1.26 亿人次，同比增长 6.3%；国内出游总花费 575.49 亿 元，同比增长 6.7%。假期人均消费 457 元/人次，同比 +0.3%。 山岳类景区保持高景气，需求具有韧性。同程旅行平台数据 显示，清明假期山岳类风景区的热度仅次于赏花踏青和主题 乐园，泰山、黄山、华山、三清山、普陀山等知名风景区热 度位居全国前列。其中，三清山、普陀山、武当山、九华山 等知名风景区同时也拥有众多佛教或道教历史遗迹或寺庙景 区，是假期期间踏青访古的首选。 从上市景区相关数据来看： 高品质度假游，旅游度假区及主题乐园热度较高。根据品橙 旅游数据，对比 2024 年清明假期情况，排名前 20 的国家级旅 游度假区共接待深度游客量及平均 ...

证券研究报告|行业点评报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 04 月 07 日 [Table_Title] 清明假期国内及出入境出行人次高增，政策指引下旅游行业供需双 端步入长期优化阶段 [Table_Title2] 社会服务行业点评报告 [Table_Summary] 事件概述: 经文化和旅游部数据中心测算，清明节假期 3 天，全国国内出 游 1.26 亿人次，同比增长 6.3%；国内出游总花费 575.49 亿 元，同比增长 6.7%。基于过往数据测算，25 年清明旅游人次 恢复至 19 年同期 118.06%、清明旅游收入恢复至 19 年同期的 120.22%、清明旅游人均消费恢复至 19 年同期的 101.83%，25 年清明假期各项旅游数据均超越 24 年及 19 年同期水平。 ► 清明假期交通运输情况：总客运量高基数下继续 增长，水路/民航客运量增速亮眼。 来自交通运输部数据，初步统计显示，清明假期三天，预计全 社会跨区域人员流动量约 7.9 亿人次，日均 2.64 亿人次，比 去年同期增长 7.1%；公路人员流动量预计为 7.3 亿人次，同比 +6.89%；铁路客运量预计约 5377.6 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The company achieved a total operating revenue of 174.14 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 15.66%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 86.23 billion yuan, up 15.38% year-on-year, aligning with market expectations [2][3] - The company plans a modest increase in domestic market supply for 2025, aiming to stabilize market prices while addressing diverse consumer needs through new product launches [7][10] Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported a gross margin of 91.93% and a net margin of 52.27%, indicating stable profitability despite slight declines in these metrics [6] - The company’s revenue from Moutai liquor and other series reached 145.93 billion yuan and 24.68 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 15.28% and 19.65% [4] - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is projected to be 74.54 yuan, with a net profit forecast of 93.64 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 8.6% [12][10] Product and Market Strategy - The company is expanding its distribution network for the sauce-flavored liquor, with wholesale and direct sales revenues increasing by 19.73% and 11.32% respectively in 2024 [5] - The company plans to adjust its product offerings in 2025, focusing on high-value products and enhancing its presence in the catering market [8][9] Future Outlook - The company aims for a revenue growth of approximately 9% in 2025, with a focus on maintaining the market price stability of its flagship product, the 53°500ml Moutai liquor [10] - The company is actively pursuing consumer engagement strategies to adapt to changing market dynamics and consumer preferences [9]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Recommended" [5] Core Insights - The new energy vehicle industry is experiencing rapid growth, with significant increases in delivery and sales figures for various brands in March, including notable growth rates exceeding 20% for companies like BYD, NIO, and Li Auto. The overall market is expected to continue expanding due to factors such as improved supply, vehicle replacement policies, and the transition to smart electric vehicles [1][13][14] - The solar energy sector is poised for growth, driven by inventory and capacity reductions, with a focus on the structural opportunities in key materials and components. The report highlights the potential for price stabilization and recovery in the solar supply chain, particularly for silicon materials and innovative technologies like perovskite solar cells [26][27][28] - The offshore wind power sector is expected to see increased activity, with several key projects progressing in Guangdong and Shandong provinces. The report suggests that the domestic offshore wind market will benefit from ongoing project developments and rising demand for components like submarine cables and foundation piles [3][24][48] Summary by Sections 1. New Energy Vehicles - March saw strong performance in new energy vehicle deliveries, with brands like Xpeng and Li Auto showing significant year-on-year growth. The overall market is expected to benefit from favorable policies and technological advancements [1][13][14] - The lithium battery supply chain is anticipated to expand due to rising demand from energy storage and consumer electronics, with a focus on price stabilization and potential recovery in profitability for key players [14][17][19] 2. New Energy - The report notes short-term disruptions in silicon wafer production due to natural disasters, which may lead to price increases. However, long-term prospects remain positive for leading companies with strong technological and supply chain capabilities [2][22] - The solar energy market is expected to benefit from inventory and capacity adjustments, with a focus on the growth of perovskite technology and the potential for price recovery in silicon materials [26][27][28] 3. Wind Power - The offshore wind sector is highlighted as a key area for growth, with significant projects underway in Guangdong and Shandong. The report emphasizes the importance of domestic and international demand for components and the potential for increased profitability in the supply chain [3][24][48] - The report also discusses the expected recovery in onshore wind power pricing and the potential for domestic manufacturers to expand into international markets, driven by competitive advantages in technology and cost [52][54]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Recommended" [4] Core Insights - The domestic computing power industry is experiencing a pivotal shift from technology following to innovation leadership, driven by the acceleration of AI and digital transformation [13][18] - The performance of domestic chips continues to break through, and the open-source ecosystem is improving, indicating that the domestic computing power industry has entered a new stage of high-quality development [13][18] - The total computing power scale in China is expected to grow by 16.5% year-on-year in 2024, with over 8.8 million standard racks in use [24] Summary by Sections Section 1: Domestic Computing Power - Price Fluctuations and Demand Growth - Domestic computing power card prices are on the rise, driven by increased demand and supply shortages [19][20] - AI technology advancements are leading to a comprehensive price increase in cloud infrastructure, with significant implications for the industry structure [21][22] - Alibaba plans to invest at least 380 billion RMB in AI and cloud computing infrastructure over the next three years, marking a substantial commitment to the sector [27][28] Section 2: Domestic Computing Power - Breaking Through and Leading New Development Trends - Various cities are actively promoting the construction of computing power centers, such as Zhengzhou, Gui'an, and Shenzhen, to meet digitalization demands [36][37] - The upgrade of domestic large models has led to a surge in demand for computing power leasing, with many companies accelerating procurement [41] - Shenzhen has issued nearly 200 million RMB in "training coupons" to support AI and intelligent robotics companies, enhancing the computing power infrastructure [47][48] Section 3: Investment Recommendations - Beneficiary stocks include: 1. AIDC: Runjian Co., Guanghuan New Network, Aofei Data, Runze Technology [17] 2. Computing Power Leasing: Hainan Huatie, Hongjing Technology, Hongxin Electronics [17] 3. Cloud Computing: Youkede, Capital Online, Shunwang Technology, Deepin Technology [17] 4. Computing Power Chips: Haiguang Information, Cambricon, Chipone, Huawei [17] 5. AI Power: Zhongheng Electric, Magmi Tech, Oulu Tong, KOTAI Power [17]