证券研究报告|行业研究报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 5 月 31 [Table_Title] PTANTAM TBK 2025Q1 镍铁产/销量分别环比减 少 6%/38%至 4,498 吨/4,839 吨，镍矿石产/销量分 别环比增长 75%/45%至 463 万吨/383 万吨 [Table_Title2] 有色金属-海外季报 [Table_Summary] 季报重点内容: ►2025Q1 分业务产销情况 1、镍铁 2025Q1，ANTAM 镍铁产量为 4,498 吨，同比减少 6%， 环比减少 7%。 2025Q1，ANTAM 镍铁销量为 4,839 吨，环比减少 38%， 2024 年同期未进行销售。 2、镍矿 2025Q1，ANTAM 镍矿石产量为 463 万湿吨，同比增长 221%，环比增长 75%。 2025Q1，ANTAM 镍矿石销量为 383 万湿公吨，同比增 长了 281%，环比增长 45%。 3、黄金 2025Q1，ANTAM 矿产金产量达到 230 公斤（7,395 金衡 盎司），较 2024Q1 的 166 公斤（5,337 金衡盎司）增长 39%， 环比减少 16。 ...

[Table_Date] 2025 年 5 月 31 [Table_Title] Sherritt 2025Q1 成品镍和钴产量分别同比减少 18%、6%至 2,947 吨、323 吨，镍净直接现金成本 同比下降 18%至 5.95 美元/磅 证券研究报告|行业研究报告 [Table_Title2] 有色金属-海外季报 [Table_Summary] 季报重点内容: ►2025Q1 生产经营情况 1）金属业务 2025Q1，镍钴混合硫化物（MSP）产量为 3,157 吨，而 2024Q1 的产量为 4,052 吨。这主要是由于供应链延迟、矿石选 矿机维护、采矿设备可用性降低以及古巴全国范围内再次停 电。Sherritt 正在与古巴政府接洽，以进一步加强对 Moa JV 的 保护，使其免受美国收紧对古巴的限制后，古巴外汇流动性受 限的影响，从而导致更广泛的国内供应链中断。 2025Q1，Sherritt 的成品镍和钴权益产量分别为 2,947 吨和 323 吨，而 2024Q1 分别为 3,597 吨和 342 吨，分别同比减少 18%、6%，环比减少 24%、31%。如前所述，由于 2024Q4 的 外部挑战 ...

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Recommended" rating for the industry, predicting that the industry index will outperform the Shanghai Composite Index by 10% or more during the specified period [4]. Core Insights - Centrus achieved a net profit of $27.2 million in Q1 2025, a significant turnaround from a loss of $6.1 million in Q1 2024, marking an increase of $33.3 million year-on-year [1]. - Total revenue for Centrus in Q1 2025 was $73.1 million, up 67% from $43.7 million in Q1 2024, with gross profit increasing by 665% to $32.9 million [1]. - The low-enriched uranium (LEU) segment saw revenues rise by 117% to $51.3 million, driven by a 46% increase in average selling prices and a 49% increase in sales volume [2]. - The technical solutions segment reported an 8% revenue increase to $21.8 million, primarily due to $2 million in revenue from high-assay low-enriched uranium (HALEU) operational contracts [3]. Financial Performance Summary - In Q1 2025, the low-enriched uranium segment's gross profit surged to $31.2 million, a 6,140% increase from $0.5 million in Q1 2024, attributed to increased sales and contract composition [2]. - The technical solutions segment's gross profit decreased by 55% to $1.7 million, mainly due to increased costs associated with HALEU operational contracts [5]. - As of March 31, 2025, Centrus had a backlog of $3.8 billion in unfulfilled orders, with $2.8 billion related to the low-enriched uranium segment [11].

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Recommended" [5] Core Insights - In Q1 2025, lithium salt sales reached 55,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 20%, while the average price dropped by 27% to $9,144 per ton [1] - Specialty Plant Nutrition (SNP) sales were 217,200 tons, up 6% year-on-year, with an average price of $977 per ton, down 4% [2] - Iodine and its derivatives saw sales of 3,600 tons, a 4% decrease year-on-year, but the average price increased by 9% to $70,833 per ton [3] - Potassium fertilizer sales fell by 38% year-on-year to 100,800 tons, with an average price increase of 8% to $422 per ton [4] Summary by Sections Lithium Salt Business - Q1 2025 lithium salt sales were 55,000 tons, a 20% increase year-on-year, but a 5% decrease quarter-on-quarter [1] - The average price was $9,144 per ton, down 27% year-on-year [1] - Unit sales cost was $7,083 per ton, down 18% year-on-year [1] - Unit gross profit was $2,061 per ton, down 48% year-on-year [1] Specialty Plant Nutrition (SNP) - Q1 2025 SNP sales were 217,200 tons, a 6% increase year-on-year [2] - The average price was $977 per ton, down 4% year-on-year [2] - Unit gross profit was $171 per ton, down 21% year-on-year [2] Iodine and Derivatives - Q1 2025 sales were 3,600 tons, a 4% decrease year-on-year [3] - The average price was $70,833 per ton, up 9% year-on-year [3] - Unit gross profit was $39,019 per ton, up 3% year-on-year [3] Potassium Fertilizer - Q1 2025 sales were 100,800 tons, a 38% decrease year-on-year [4] - The average price was $422 per ton, up 8% year-on-year [4] - Unit gross profit was $48 per ton, up 7% year-on-year [4] Financial Performance - Q1 2025 total revenue was $1.0366 billion, a 4% decrease year-on-year [6] - Sales cost was $731.9 million, a 2% increase year-on-year [7] - Gross profit was $304.7 million, a 17% decrease year-on-year [8] - Pre-tax profit was $211.7 million, a 29% decrease year-on-year [9] - Net income after tax was $137.5 million, a significant decrease compared to the previous year [11]

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Recommended" [5] Core Insights - In Q1 2025, lithium salt sales reached 55,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 20%, while the average price dropped by 27% to $9,144 per ton [1][7] - Specialty Plant Nutrition (SNP) sales were 217,200 tons, up 6% year-on-year, with an average price of $977 per ton, down 4% [2] - Iodine and its derivatives saw sales of 3,600 tons, a 4% decrease year-on-year, but the average price increased by 9% to $70,833 per ton [3] - Potassium fertilizer sales fell by 38% year-on-year to 100,800 tons, while the average price rose by 8% to $422 per ton [4] Summary by Sections Lithium Salt Business - Q1 2025 lithium salt sales were 55,000 tons, a 20% increase year-on-year, but a 5% decrease quarter-on-quarter [1] - The average price was $9,144 per ton, down 27% year-on-year [1] - Unit sales cost was $7,083 per ton, down 18% year-on-year [1] - Unit gross profit was $2,061 per ton, down 48% year-on-year [1] Specialty Plant Nutrition (SNP) - Q1 2025 SNP sales were 217,200 tons, a 6% increase year-on-year [2] - The average price was $977 per ton, down 4% year-on-year [2] - Unit gross profit was $171 per ton, down 21% year-on-year [2] Iodine and Derivatives - Q1 2025 sales were 3,600 tons, a 4% decrease year-on-year [3] - The average price was $70,833 per ton, up 9% year-on-year [3] - Unit gross profit was $39,019 per ton, up 3% year-on-year [3] Potassium Fertilizer - Q1 2025 sales were 100,800 tons, a 38% decrease year-on-year [4] - The average price was $422 per ton, up 8% year-on-year [4] - Unit gross profit was $48 per ton, up 7% year-on-year [4] Financial Performance - Q1 2025 total revenue was $1.0366 billion, a 4% decrease year-on-year [7] - Sales cost was $731.9 million, a 2% increase year-on-year [8] - Gross profit was $304.7 million, a 17% decrease year-on-year [9] - Pre-tax profit was $211.7 million, a 29% decrease year-on-year [10] - Net income was $137.5 million, a significant decrease compared to the previous year [12] Outlook - The Mt Holland lithium project is on track to reach its rated capacity before 2026 [17] - Potassium fertilizer sales are expected to remain below 2024 levels due to strategic shifts in production [18]

Investment Rating - The report recommends a "Buy" rating for the industry, predicting that the industry index will outperform the Shanghai Composite Index by 10% or more in the upcoming months [4]. Core Insights - Centrus achieved a net profit of $27.2 million in Q1 2025, a significant turnaround from a loss of $6.1 million in Q1 2024, marking an increase of $33.3 million year-on-year [1]. - Total revenue for Centrus in Q1 2025 was $73.1 million, up by $29.4 million (or 67%) compared to $43.7 million in Q1 2024 [1]. - The gross profit for the company in Q1 2025 was $32.9 million, reflecting a year-on-year increase of $28.6 million (or 665%) from $4.3 million in Q1 2024 [1]. Financial Performance by Segment Low-Enriched Uranium (LEU) Segment - Revenue from the low-enriched uranium segment in Q1 2025 was $51.3 million, an increase of $27.7 million (or 117%) from $23.6 million in Q1 2024 [2]. - The gross profit for this segment rose to $31.2 million in Q1 2025, a substantial increase of $30.7 million (or 6,140%) compared to $0.5 million in Q1 2024 [2]. Technical Solutions Segment - The technical solutions segment generated revenue of $21.8 million in Q1 2025, up by $1.7 million (or 8%) from $20.1 million in Q1 2024 [3]. - However, the gross profit for this segment decreased to $1.7 million in Q1 2025, down by $2.1 million (or 55%) from $3.8 million in Q1 2024, primarily due to increased costs associated with HALEU operational contracts [5]. Domestic Enrichment Developments - Centrus continues to produce HALEU at its facility in Piketon, Ohio, under a contract with the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), having delivered approximately 670 kg of HALEU UF6 as of March 31, 2025 [6]. - The contract value for the second phase of HALEU operations has been increased to $152.3 million following a revision on November 5, 2024 [6]. Backlog and Future Orders - As of March 31, 2025, Centrus reported a backlog of $3.8 billion in unfulfilled orders, with approximately $2.8 billion attributed to the low-enriched uranium segment [11]. - The backlog includes long-term contracts and contingent sales commitments, with $1.7 billion being final agreements and $400 million pending finalization [11].

Core Insights - The report discusses the recent developments regarding tariffs, highlighting a significant ruling by a U.S. court that deemed President Trump's tariff actions illegal, which has led to a rise in market risk appetite and a rebound in domestic equity markets [2][5][9] - The report indicates that while the immediate market reaction has been positive, uncertainties remain regarding the future of tariff policies, as the Trump administration may still pursue alternative legal avenues to maintain tariffs [3][9] Domestic Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3363.45, up by 0.70%, while the CSI 300 Index rose by 0.59% to 3858.70 [1] - The technology sector showed strong recovery, with the STAR 50 Index increasing by 1.61% and the Hang Seng Tech Index rising by 2.46% [2][6] - Small-cap stocks also performed well, with the CSI 2000 and Wind Micro Cap indices up by 1.75% and 1.85%, respectively [7] Bond Market Dynamics - The bond market experienced upward pressure on yields, with 10-year and 30-year government bond yields rising by 0.5 basis points to 1.69% and 1.93%, respectively [2][4] - The report notes a shift in sentiment in the bond market as the People's Bank of China injected liquidity through reverse repos, leading to a decline in long-term interest rates [4] Technology Sector Insights - The technology sector's rebound is attributed to positive developments from major companies like NVIDIA, which reported revenues of $44.1 billion, slightly above expectations, and provided optimistic future guidance [6][7] - The report highlights that the TMT sector's previous underperformance has made it more susceptible to positive news, leading to a stronger reaction to favorable developments [7] Hong Kong Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Tech Index rose by 1.35% and 2.46%, respectively, with significant net inflows from southbound funds, particularly into Meituan [8] - The report notes a decrease in the AH share premium index, indicating a shift in investor sentiment towards Hong Kong-listed technology stocks [8]

Quantitative Factors and Construction - **Factor Name**: Retained Chip Ratio **Construction Idea**: The factor leverages minute-level trading data to measure the proportion of chips retained by investors over a specific period, reflecting the degree of chip accumulation and potential trend formation[4][9]. **Construction Process**: 1. Calculate minute-level turnover rate using trading volume and amount data, normalized by circulating shares[10]. 2. For each trading day, at 15-minute intervals (e.g., 9:45, 10:00, ..., 14:45, 15:00), compute the cumulative turnover rate and trading amount for the preceding 15 minutes[10]. 3. Use the turnover rate and trading amount to calculate retained trading amounts for each time point until the selection day[10]. 4. Aggregate retained trading amounts over the past 20 trading days to derive cumulative retained trading amounts[10]. 5. Normalize cumulative retained trading amounts by total trading amounts over the past 20 days to construct the Retained Chip Ratio factor[10]. **Formula**: $$ \text{Retained Chip Ratio} = \frac{\sum_{n=1}^{N} \text{Amount}_{t-n} \times (1-\text{TR}_{t-n+1}) \times \cdots \times (1-\text{TR}_{t})}{\sum_{n=1}^{N} \text{Amount}_{t-n}} $$ where $\text{Amount}_{t-n}$ represents the trading amount at time $t-n$, and $\text{TR}$ denotes turnover rate[8][9]. **Evaluation**: The factor effectively captures chip accumulation and investor behavior, showing strong monotonicity and positive returns across multiple years[17][30]. - **Factor Name**: Pure Retained Chip Ratio **Construction Idea**: Orthogonalize the Retained Chip Ratio against common style factors (e.g., beta, size, valuation, growth, liquidity, momentum, volatility) to isolate its pure effect[24][35]. **Construction Process**: 1. Calculate correlations between the Retained Chip Ratio and style factors[24][35]. 2. Remove the influence of style factors through orthogonalization[24][35]. **Evaluation**: The pure factor retains strong predictive power, with slightly reduced RankIC compared to the original factor but still demonstrating robust performance[21][35]. - **Factor Name**: Composite Fine-Grained Factor **Construction Idea**: Combine the Retained Chip Ratio with four other minute-level factors (price-volume correlation, amplitude price-volume divergence, trading amount volatility, and trading volume volatility), orthogonalize them, and equally weight them to form a composite factor[63]. **Construction Process**: 1. Orthogonalize the five minute-level factors to remove overlapping effects[63]. 2. Equally weight the orthogonalized factors to construct the composite factor[63]. **Evaluation**: The composite factor demonstrates enhanced performance across multiple indices, with higher RankIC and information ratios compared to individual factors[63][66]. --- Factor Backtesting Results - **Retained Chip Ratio**: - **Index**: CSI 800 - RankIC: 5.67%[12] - Annualized Long-Short Return: 46.16%[12] - IR: 1.09[12] - **Index**: CSI 1000 - RankIC: 7.38%[25] - Annualized Long-Short Return: 74.41%[25] - IR: 1.56[25] - **Pure Retained Chip Ratio**: - **Index**: CSI 800 - RankIC: 4.59%[21] - Annualized Long-Short Return: 40.88%[21] - IR: 1.07[21] - **Index**: CSI 1000 - RankIC: 5.90%[35] - Annualized Long-Short Return: 55.49%[35] - IR: 1.08[35] - **Composite Fine-Grained Factor**: - **Index**: CSI 300 - RankIC: 5.51%[63] - Annualized Long-Short Return: 38.26%[63] - IR: 1.52[63] - **Index**: CSI 500 - RankIC: 7.02%[63] - Annualized Long-Short Return: 50.02%[63] - IR: 2.19[63] - **Index**: CSI 1000 - RankIC: 7.70%[63] - Annualized Long-Short Return: 60.89%[63] - IR: 2.93[63] --- Factor Application in Enhanced Portfolios - **Retained Chip Ratio**: - **Index**: CSI 300 - Annualized Return: 6.07%[41] - Annualized Excess Return: 5.17%[41] - IR: 1.14[41] - **Index**: CSI 500 - Annualized Return: 7.81%[48] - Annualized Excess Return: 10.09%[48] - IR: 1.67[48] - **Index**: CSI 1000 - Annualized Return: 6.68%[55] - Annualized Excess Return: 11.78%[55] - IR: 1.44[55] - **Composite Fine-Grained Factor**: - **Index**: CSI 300 - Annualized Return: 7.66%[66] - Annualized Excess Return: 6.76%[66] - IR: 1.36[66] - **Index**: CSI 500 - Annualized Return: 9.54%[66] - Annualized Excess Return: 11.82%[66] - IR: 2.21[66] - **Index**: CSI 1000 - Annualized Return: 5.92%[66] - Annualized Excess Return: 11.02%[66] - IR: 2.05[66]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [7] Core Insights - The company has entered into a significant licensing agreement with Pfizer for the PD-1/VEGF bispecific antibody (SSGJ-707), which includes an upfront payment of $1.25 billion and potential milestone payments totaling up to $4.8 billion [1][2] - The licensing agreement allows the company to retain development and commercialization rights for SSGJ-707 in mainland China, while Pfizer has the option to commercialize the product in China [1] - The company is expected to see a substantial increase in pre-tax profits due to the upfront payment, estimated at approximately $1.175 billion [2] - SSGJ-707 is currently undergoing multiple clinical studies in China, including a Phase III trial for treating PD-L1 positive locally advanced or metastatic non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) [3][6] Financial Projections - The company’s projected revenues for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are estimated to be 185.9 billion, 133.7 billion, and 145.9 billion CNY respectively, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 104.1%, -28.1%, and 18.5% [7][9] - The projected net profit attributable to the parent company for the same years is expected to be 95.9 billion, 53.2 billion, and 60.8 billion CNY, with year-on-year growth rates of 358.7%, -44.5%, and 14.2% [7][9] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected to be 4.00, 2.22, and 2.54 CNY respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 4.7, 8.4, and 7.3 [7][9] Clinical Development - SSGJ-707 has received IND approval from the FDA and is set to initiate clinical studies in the United States [6] - The product is also involved in several Phase II studies in China, targeting various indications including metastatic colorectal cancer and advanced gynecological tumors [10]

Investment Rating - The report recommends a "Buy" rating for the industry, indicating a forecasted performance that will exceed the Shanghai Composite Index by 15% or more [4]. Core Insights - In Q1 2025, the uranium production volume was 5,633 tons U3O8, a decrease of 14% compared to Q4 2024, but an increase of 11% year-on-year from Q1 2024 [1][8]. - The group’s uranium sales volume for Q1 2025 was 2,560 tons U3O8, down 49% from Q4 2024 and down 7% from Q1 2024 [1][8]. - The average realized price for the group in Q1 2025 was $54.70 per pound, a decrease of 27% from Q4 2024 and a decrease of 13% from Q1 2024 [2][8]. Summary by Sections Production and Sales Performance - Q1 2025 uranium production (100% basis) was 5,633 tons U3O8, down 14% from 6,519 tons in Q4 2024, and up 11% from 5,077 tons in Q1 2024 [1][8]. - Q1 2025 uranium sales volume (100% basis) was 2,560 tons U3O8, down 49% from 5,030 tons in Q4 2024, and down 7% from 2,752 tons in Q1 2024 [1][8]. - The average realized price for the group in Q1 2025 was $54.70 per pound, down 27% from $74.92 in Q4 2024, and down 13% from $62.53 in Q1 2024 [2][8]. 2025 Guidance - The company maintains its 2025 guidance with expected uranium production of 25,000 - 26,500 tons (100% basis) and 13,000 - 14,000 tons (attributable basis) [3][11]. - The group sales volume is projected to be between 17,500 - 18,500 tons, with KAP sales volume expected to be between 14,000 - 15,000 tons [5][11]. Company Developments - The company signed a new supply agreement with European utilities, enhancing its position in the global uranium market and supporting energy security in Europe [6]. - A dividend proposal of 1,264.12 KZT per ordinary share has been suggested, amounting to approximately 327.9 billion KZT, which represents 75% of the free cash flow [7].