2025 年 08 月 01 日 极端天气与反内卷致量价反向波动 分析师：罗云峰 S1050524060001 luoyf2@cfsc.com.cn 分析师：杨斐然 S1050524070001 yangfr@cfsc.com.cn 事件 受制造业进入传统生产淡季，部分地区高温、暴雨洪涝灾害 等因素影响，7 月制造业 PMI 为 49.3，环比下降 0.4，连续 4 个月低于枯荣线，7 月为 4 个月以来最低；非制造业 PMI 为 50.1，环比下跌 0.4；综合 PMI 产出指数为 50.2，环比下降 0.5 个百分点。 7 月份中国战略性新兴产业 EPMI 为 46.8，比上月回落 1.1 个 百分点。服务业健康医疗服务业、新材料产业表现最好。 投资要点 ▌ 制造业：极端天气影响生产 极端天气与反内卷共同作用下，供需两端边际回调，生产指 数扩张幅度下降 0.5 至 50.5，新订单指数大幅下降 0.8，重 回荣枯线以下（49.4），其中新出口订单指数下降 0.6 至 47.1，一定程度受前期抢出口的影响，内需下滑或有 618 的 影响。企业生产经营活动更趋谨慎：进口指标保持 47.8；原 材料库存下降 0 ...

Core Insights - The report indicates a neutral market sentiment with a score of 45, suggesting a balanced outlook for investors [5][10] - Key themes currently attracting attention include Artificial Intelligence, RDA (Real Data Assets), and Hydropower projects, which are expected to drive investment opportunities [6] Market Sentiment - The market sentiment temperature indicator shows a score of 45, categorized as neutral, with historical trends indicating that scores below 30 provide support while scores above 90 may present resistance [10][22] - Recent improvements in market sentiment and supportive policies are leading to a gradual upward trend in the market [10] Hot Topics Tracking - **Artificial Intelligence**: The "2025 World Artificial Intelligence Conference" is set to take place from July 26 to 29 in Shanghai, focusing on cutting-edge AI technologies and applications. Key companies involved include Zhongke Shuguang (603019) and 360 (601360) [6] - **RDA (Real Data Assets)**: The Shanghai Data Exchange has introduced the RDA paradigm, emphasizing the integration of data with physical assets for verification and value enhancement. Related companies include Tongxingbao (301339) and Wanda Information (300168) [6] - **Hydropower**: The Yarlung Tsangpo River downstream hydropower project has commenced in Tibet, with a total investment of approximately 1.2 trillion yuan. This project is significant for both local and external power supply. Key companies involved are Dongfang Electric (600875) and Tibet Tianlu (600326) [6] Capital Flow Analysis - The report lists the top ten stocks with significant net inflows, highlighting companies such as Yidian Tianxia (90.89 million yuan) and Shenzhou Digital (75.27 million yuan) as attracting substantial investment [11] - Conversely, the report also identifies the top ten stocks with net outflows, including Ningde Times (-169.10 million yuan) and Dongfang Fortune (-167.78 million yuan), indicating investor caution in these areas [13] Industry Overview - The report provides insights into the performance of various sectors, with the computer and media sectors showing positive net inflows, while sectors like food and beverage and automotive are experiencing significant outflows [17][18] - Financing net purchases are predominantly seen in the food and beverage sector, indicating investor confidence in these industries [19]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation for Microsoft (MSFT.O) [10] Core Insights - Microsoft reported Q4 FY2025 revenue of $76.44 billion, a year-on-year increase of 18%, with net profit reaching $27.2 billion, up 24% [2][4] - The Intelligent Cloud segment generated $29.88 billion in revenue, a 26% increase year-on-year, with Azure cloud revenue growing by 39% [4][8] - The introduction of the Edge Copilot mode is expected to revolutionize browser interactions, enhancing user experience and data privacy [5][8] - Azure AI Foundry was launched, providing a unified platform for developers to customize and manage AI applications, supporting over 1900 models [7][8] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Microsoft’s Q4 FY2025 revenue was $76.44 billion, with a net profit of $27.2 billion, reflecting strong growth across multiple business lines [2][4] Cloud Business - The Intelligent Cloud segment's revenue reached $29.88 billion, with Azure's revenue growing 39% year-on-year, indicating robust demand for cloud services [4][8] AI and Innovation - The launch of Azure AI Foundry marks a significant advancement in enterprise-level AI development, allowing for the integration of various AI models and enhancing developer capabilities [6][7][8] Product Development - The Edge Copilot mode introduces a new level of interaction in web browsing, focusing on user privacy and seamless navigation [5][8]

Group 1 - The report highlights the resilience of the overseas economy, tariff developments, and expectations for a rate cut in September, with a focus on technology growth and opportunities for clearing internal competition in the domestic market [4][14][18] - The A-share market is expected to challenge last year's highs, with a strong focus on technology growth and sectors that can benefit from the reduction of internal competition, such as steel, coal, cement, glass, photovoltaic, new energy vehicles, and live pigs [21][4] - The report recommends a diversified portfolio of stocks, including companies in electronics, new energy, power equipment, non-ferrous metals, chemicals, and pharmaceuticals, with specific companies highlighted as top picks [5][12][22] Group 2 - The electronics sector is represented by companies like Zhongji Xuchuang, which is expected to see significant profit growth due to increased demand for high-speed optical modules driven by AI infrastructure [22][23] - The semiconductor industry is recovering, with Tongfu Microelectronics reporting a notable increase in revenue and profit, driven by the resurgence in the consumer electronics market [31][33] - The new energy sector, represented by Qiangrui Technology, is experiencing rapid growth in smart automotive and AI server equipment, indicating strong future growth potential [37][39] Group 3 - The power equipment sector, represented by Xinshi Da, is focusing on industrial automation and robotics, with a strong market position in elevator control systems and a growing presence in the robotics industry [43][44] - The non-ferrous metals sector, represented by Xingye Yinxin, is benefiting from rising prices of silver and tin, with significant production increases and strategic acquisitions to enhance future growth [49][51][54]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for the company [10] Core Views - The company has achieved significant success in its overseas expansion, with a notable increase in export volume and a growing share of overseas revenue, which now accounts for nearly 40% of total income [4][10] - The company is advancing its lithium battery technology, which is expected to enhance its competitive position in the industrial vehicle sector, particularly in electric forklifts [5][10] - The integration of smart logistics solutions and partnerships with key players in the industry is transforming the company from a manufacturer to a comprehensive intelligent solution provider [6][10] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The company’s export volume reached 126,400 units in 2024, marking a year-on-year growth of 34.08%, significantly outpacing the industry average [4] Lithium Battery Technology - In 2024, the total sales volume of industrial vehicles was 1.286 million units, with electric forklifts making up 73.6% of the market. The company has successfully developed a 55-ton lithium battery forklift and is ramping up production capacity for lithium batteries [5] Smart Logistics Ecosystem - The company has established a smart logistics industrial park and integrated various automated guided vehicle (AGV) product lines with intelligent systems, enhancing its service offerings across multiple sectors [6] Financial Forecast - Projected revenues for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 186.73 billion, 203.56 billion, and 220.23 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.61, 1.80, and 1.99 yuan. The current stock price reflects a PE ratio of 11.3, 10.1, and 9.1 for the respective years [10][12]

7 月 FOMC：降息渐近前的分歧 投资要点 2025 年 07 月 31 日 —宏观点评报告 事件 北京时间 7 月 31 日凌晨，美联储公布 7 月议息结果，联邦公 开市场委员会以 9 票赞成、2 票反对的投票结果将基准联邦基 金利率维持在 4.25%-4.5%区间不变 ▌ 利率变动前的非一致票 联储投票如预期般出现矛盾，本次议息会议上美联储的理事 沃勒和鲍曼主张降息，对利率决议投反对票，是近 30 年以来 首次有两位理事同时投下反对票。6 月份议息会议以来，鲍曼 和沃勒连续的鸽派发言推动的降息交易升温，两者均认为关 税通胀是一次性冲击，且就业市场有走弱风险，建议提前降 息。争议的出现意味着对于降息的讨论变多，历史上联储出 现非一致票的时候往往也意味着利率变动的接近（加息或降 息），因此整体上投票的分歧对于降息来说反而是一个较好 的信号，关注沃勒和鲍曼周五的发言 ▌ 经济持续降温，关注非农 非农依然是主要的降息触发因素。美国当前保持了通胀抬头 压力有限，且经济稳定降温的格局，二季度美国 GDP 环比折 年率为 3%，但主要是关税抢进口停止后，净出口项由拖累转 为支撑所致，2025 年二季度美国净进口同比贡 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking it as the first recommendation [1]. Core Insights - The company is expected to face short-term impacts from centralized procurement, but sales are anticipated to improve post-implementation. The net profit for the first half of 2025 is projected to be between -77 million and -66 million yuan, primarily due to delayed procurement timelines and price reductions on core products, leading to a 57% decline in revenue and a 64% drop in gross profit year-on-year [3][4]. - The company has made significant progress in the development of innovative traditional Chinese medicine, with a key milestone achieved in the clinical trial of Qingjiang Hewei Granules, which targets a complex syndrome of non-erosive gastroesophageal reflux disease [5]. - The company holds a 17.0211% stake in Zhejiang Tereis, which is developing a first-in-class ADC product, TRS005, showing promising clinical results for treating relapsed or refractory CD20-positive diffuse large B-cell lymphoma [6][7]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company is expected to see a revenue decline in 2025, with projections of 1.984 billion yuan, followed by a recovery to 2.823 billion yuan in 2026 and 3.066 billion yuan in 2027. The earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be 0.07 yuan in 2025, 0.50 yuan in 2026, and 0.54 yuan in 2027, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 185.9, 24.8, and 23 respectively [8][10]. Market Position and Growth Drivers - The company’s core products are expected to regain sales momentum following the implementation of centralized procurement, which is anticipated to positively impact revenue in the latter half of 2025 [4]. - The innovative drug development and the ADC platform are seen as potential growth drivers for the company, with the ADC product expected to receive regulatory approval in 2024 [6][8]. Investment Outlook - The report suggests that despite short-term challenges due to procurement policies, the company’s innovative drug pipeline and strategic partnerships could lead to significant growth in the coming years, justifying the "Buy" rating [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for the company [2][12] Core Views - The company has demonstrated strong performance in the PCB sector, particularly in automotive applications, with significant growth potential in AI servers and humanoid robots [10][12] - The company achieved a revenue of 5.022 billion yuan in 2024, representing an 11.13% year-on-year increase, and a net profit of 675 million yuan, up 36.17% [5] - The company is well-positioned to benefit from the growth of electric vehicles and AI technologies, with a projected revenue increase to 6.378 billion yuan in 2025 and 9.567 billion yuan in 2026 [12][14] Company Performance - In 2024, the company reported a revenue of 50.22 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 11.13%, and a net profit of 6.75 billion yuan, up 36.17% [5] - For Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 12.17 billion yuan, reflecting an 11.33% year-on-year increase, and a net profit of 1.80 billion yuan, which is a 65.61% increase [5] Market Position and Strategy - The company has deepened its focus on automotive PCBs while actively expanding into emerging fields such as AI servers and humanoid robots [10] - The company has established a strong supply chain relationship with major clients, successfully entering the Dojo supply chain and securing projects with European AI supercomputing clients [11] Financial Forecast - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 63.78 billion yuan in 2025, 95.67 billion yuan in 2026, and 115.76 billion yuan in 2027, with corresponding EPS of 1.24, 2.07, and 2.63 yuan [12][14] - The report anticipates a significant growth rate in revenue, with a forecasted increase of 27.0% in 2025 and 50.0% in 2026 [14]

Core Insights - The report indicates a "relatively hot" market sentiment with a composite score of 64, suggesting a positive outlook for the market [6][11][23] Market Trends - The report highlights the recent performance of the CSI 300 index, which has shown fluctuations over the past year, indicating a volatile market environment [4] - The market sentiment temperature indicator suggests that when the sentiment score is below or around 30, the market tends to find support, while scores above 90 may indicate resistance [11] Hot Themes Tracking - **Artificial Intelligence**: The "2025 World Artificial Intelligence Conference" is set to take place from July 26 to 29 in Shanghai, attracting over a thousand guests from government, business, and academia. Key companies in this sector include Zhongke Shuguang (603019) and 360 (601360) [7] - **RDA (Real Data Assets)**: The Shanghai Data Exchange has introduced the RDA paradigm, emphasizing the integration of data with physical assets. This concept aims to enhance the authenticity and value of data in asset verification and financing. Related companies include Tongxingbao (301339) and Wanda Information (300168) [7] - **Hydropower**: The Yarlung Tsangpo River hydropower project in Tibet, with a total investment of approximately 1.2 trillion yuan, is noted for its strategic significance. The project includes the construction of five hydropower stations and is expected to have a substantial impact on the region [7] Capital Flow Analysis - The report lists the top ten stocks with the highest net inflow of capital, with Yingweike (002837.SZ) leading at approximately 866.94 million yuan, followed by C Hangu (001221.SZ) at 510.28 million yuan [12] - It also details the top ten stocks with the highest net buy in financing, with WuXi AppTec (603259.SH) at 447.08 million yuan and CATL (300750.SZ) at 437.09 million yuan [14] - Conversely, the report identifies the top ten stocks with the highest net outflow, with CATL (300750.SZ) showing a significant outflow of approximately 1.29 billion yuan [15] Industry Insights - The report provides insights into the performance of various industries, highlighting that the electronics sector saw a net buy of approximately 139.12 million yuan, while the basic chemical sector experienced a net outflow of around 263.72 million yuan [21][24]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for the company [10] Core Views - The company reported a total operating revenue of 31.619 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 26.59%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.869 billion yuan, up 15.35% year-on-year [5] - The main mining operations showed strong performance, with copper production reaching 91,800 tons, a 7.65% increase year-on-year, and completion rates exceeding 100% for various minerals [5] - The profitability of the core subsidiary, Yulong Copper, significantly contributed to the overall profit growth, achieving a net profit of 3.491 billion yuan, with the company's share contributing 2.025 billion yuan, a 21.5% increase year-on-year [7] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company achieved a total operating revenue of 31.619 billion yuan, a 26.59% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 1.869 billion yuan, reflecting a 15.35% growth [5] - The forecast for operating revenue from 2025 to 2027 is 58.085 billion, 60.872 billion, and 63.718 billion yuan respectively, with net profits projected at 3.826 billion, 4.125 billion, and 4.443 billion yuan [8][12] Production and Mining Operations - In the first half of 2025, the company produced 91,800 tons of copper, with a completion rate of 114%, and significant increases in zinc, lead, and molybdenum production [5] - The recovery rates for copper and molybdenum at Yulong Copper Mine improved significantly, contributing to enhanced production efficiency [5] Profitability and Forecast - The report indicates that the growth in copper production and prices (up 11%) has driven profitability, with Yulong Copper being a key profit contributor [7] - The current price-to-earnings ratio (PE) for the company is projected to be 10.8, 10.0, and 9.3 for the years 2025 to 2027 [8]