Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The white liquor industry is showing significant structural characteristics and phase pressure, with a notable trend of concentration among leading brands. The demand side is currently impacted by external policy shocks, particularly a new round of alcohol prohibition affecting both public and private consumption scenarios. However, there is potential for policy adjustments in the future. In the medium to long term, consumption is expected to concentrate on leading brands and high-cost performance products, with resilient companies likely to gain advantages during industry adjustments. Recommendations include seeking low-position investments in leading white liquor companies such as Kweichow Moutai, Shanxi Fenjiu, and Luzhou Laojiao [3][12][13]. Market Performance - From July 28 to August 1, the food and beverage index fell by 2.2%, ranking 16th among 28 first-level sub-industries, underperforming the CSI 300 by approximately 0.4 percentage points. Other food (+0.0%), meat products (-0.0%), and dairy products (-0.6%) performed relatively better [12][14]. Upstream Data - As of July 15, the GDT auction price for whole milk powder was $3,928 per ton, up 1.8% month-on-month and 25.0% year-on-year. The domestic fresh milk price was 3.0 yuan per kilogram as of July 24, down 0.3% month-on-month and down 5.9% year-on-year. The domestic milk price is expected to continue its downward trend in the short to medium term [19][22]. Recommendations - Recommended companies include: - Kweichow Moutai: Short-term demand pressure but focusing on sustainable development and increasing dividend rates. - Shanxi Fenjiu: Facing short-term demand pressure but with high mid-term growth certainty. - Ximai Food: Stable growth in the oat business with improving raw material costs. - Wancheng Group: Continuous expansion in the snack retail sector targeting young consumers. - Bairun Co.: Improvement trends in pre-mixed drinks and whiskey distribution [5][13].

Investment Rating - Industry investment rating: Positive (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report highlights the strong performance of major companies in the AI and cloud sectors, with Meta, Microsoft, and Amazon increasing their capital expenditures significantly to enhance their AI capabilities [11][12][13] - Corning's optical communication business showed remarkable growth, driven by the "Scale-up" strategy, which is expected to significantly increase the business scale [14][15] - The report emphasizes the ongoing investment opportunities in the AIDC computing power industry chain, satellite internet, and 6G, among other sectors [5][18] Summary by Sections 1. Investment Insights - Meta's Q2 revenue reached $47.52 billion, exceeding expectations, and the company raised its full-year capital expenditure guidance to between $66 billion and $72 billion [11] - Microsoft's Q4 FY2025 revenue was $76.44 billion, with a 26% year-on-year growth in its intelligent cloud segment [12] - Amazon's Q2 revenue was $167.7 billion, with a 13% year-on-year increase, and capital expenditures surged by approximately 90% [13] - Corning's optical communication revenue grew by 41% year-on-year, with a net profit increase of 73% [14] - Vertiv and Celestica both raised their revenue guidance for FY2025, reflecting strong demand in the AI sector [16][17] 2. Industry Trends - The report notes a 2.43% increase in the communication index, ranking first in the TMT sector [25] - As of May 2025, China had 4.486 million 5G base stations, with a 21.3% year-on-year increase in 5G mobile phone users [26] - The report tracks the growth of major telecom operators' cloud services, with significant revenue increases noted for China Mobile, China Telecom, and China Unicom [40][42] 3. Recommended Investment Targets - AIDC infrastructure construction: Recommended stocks include Yingweike and New Idea Network Group [19] - Network equipment: Recommended stocks include Zhongji Xuchuang and ZTE Corporation [20] - IT equipment: Recommended stocks include ZTE Corporation and Unisplendour [21] - Cloud computing platforms: Beneficiaries include China Mobile and Alibaba [22] - AI applications: Beneficiaries include Guohua Tong and Meige Intelligent [23] - Satellite internet and 6G: Beneficiaries include Haige Communication and Shenglu Communication [24]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [9] Core Views - The release of the Li Auto i8 and the Leidao L90 marks the entry of new players into the large SUV market, with advancements in intelligent driving technology and new business models gradually being implemented [2][27] - The trend of intelligent driving penetration is confirmed, with traditional luxury brands like Audi and Mercedes-Benz adopting local intelligent driving solutions in their new models [2][27] - The strong performance of leading manufacturers in intelligent driving and their focus on high-end market segments are expected to yield significant opportunities in the long term [3][27] Summary by Sections Market Overview - The intelligent driving sector is witnessing the rollout of new technologies, with Li Auto and XPeng leading the way in the implementation of VLA intelligent driving algorithms, expected to be mass-produced soon [2][27] - The market response to the Li Auto i8 and Leidao L90 has been positive, indicating strong potential for these models in the competitive landscape [3][27] Key Developments - The A-share automotive sector experienced a decline of 2.36% this week, ranking 21st among SW primary industries, while the cumulative increase since the beginning of 2025 is 9.80%, ranking 15th [10][14] - The Wanjie M8 electric version pre-sold over 15,000 units within 72 hours, showcasing strong consumer interest [4][29] - XPeng achieved record deliveries of 36,717 vehicles in July, marking a 229% year-on-year increase [4][31] Investment Recommendations - Recommended stocks include XPeng Motors, SAIC Group, BYD, Changan Automobile, Great Wall Motors, and Leap Motor, with beneficiary stocks such as Seres, JAC Motors, GAC Group, BAIC Blue Valley, Li Auto, and Geely [5][46] - In the components sector, focus on companies like Huayang Group, Desay SV, and Junsheng Electronics, with beneficiary stocks including Bertel, Baolong Technology, and Horizon Robotics [5][46] Industry Trends - The intelligent driving sector is gradually moving towards commercialization, with strong manufacturers and component companies expected to benefit significantly [5][46] - The market is seeing a shift towards high-end and intelligent vehicles, with companies like Huawei collaborating with various players to enhance their offerings [3][27][28]

Group 1 - The market has experienced a slight pause after five consecutive weeks of growth, with new capital's marginal profit effect weakening. The financing balance growth rate in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets is slowing down, indicating a neutral oscillation range of 7%-10% [2][12][13] - The report emphasizes that the current market structure is increasingly clear, driven by two main lines: the "anti-involution" leading to a cyclical and pro-cyclical trading PPI recovery, and the strong elasticity provided by global technology collaboration [2][12][58] Group 2 - The report identifies that despite the current low PPI levels, there is potential for marginal improvement due to a loose liquidity environment, which may accelerate valuation recovery. This is supported by two signals: the credit transmission providing leading signals for PPI recovery and the structural divergence between CRB and PPI [3][14][17] - The "anti-involution" policy has catalyzed a shift towards PPI trading, with core assets in cyclical consumption likely to experience valuation recovery, thus supporting the index [3][21][25] Group 3 - The TMT sector is highlighted as a core area for institutional long-term allocation, driven by a "fan effect" that attracts consensus among funds. The sector has shown significant trading activity, particularly in the communication sub-sector, which has gained traction as other sectors have seen a decline in trading volume [4][37][38] - The semiconductor industry is entering an upward phase, with conditions for transitioning from "expectation recovery" to "economic verification" being met. The report notes that the current semiconductor cycle is characterized by strong demand driven by AI and high-performance computing needs [4][47][49] Group 4 - The report suggests a strategic allocation in the current market environment, recommending a focus on technology, military, anti-involution, PPI diffusion directions, and stable dividends. Specific sectors include AI, robotics, semiconductors, and cyclical sectors like insurance and real estate, which are expected to benefit from PPI recovery [5][58]

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods Model Name: Hong Kong Stock Selection 20 Portfolio - **Model Construction Idea**: The model aims to track the monthly performance of a long portfolio by selecting the top 20 stocks with the highest scores based on multiple factors. The benchmark is the Hong Kong Composite Index (HKD) (930930.CSI) [40][42] - **Model Construction Process**: - The model uses four types of factors: technical, capital, fundamental, and analyst expectations [40][41] - At the end of each month, the top 20 stocks with the highest scores are selected and equally weighted to construct the Hong Kong Stock Selection 20 Portfolio [42] - **Model Evaluation**: The model has shown excellent performance in the Hong Kong Stock Connect sample stocks [40] Model Backtesting Results - **Hong Kong Stock Selection 20 Portfolio**: - **July 2025**: Portfolio return 11.6%, benchmark index return 4.8%, excess return 6.8% [42] - **Overall Period (2015.1~2025.7)**: Excess annualized return 13.9%, excess return volatility ratio 1.0 [42][44] Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods Factor Name: Technical, Capital, Fundamental, Analyst Expectations - **Factor Construction Idea**: These factors are used to evaluate the performance of Hong Kong Stock Connect sample stocks [40] - **Factor Construction Process**: - **Technical**: Based on stock price movements and technical indicators - **Capital**: Based on capital flow and trading volume - **Fundamental**: Based on financial metrics such as PE ratio, ROE, etc. - **Analyst Expectations**: Based on analyst ratings and forecasts [40][41] - **Factor Evaluation**: These factors have shown excellent performance in the Hong Kong Stock Connect sample stocks [40] Factor Backtesting Results - **Technical, Capital, Fundamental, Analyst Expectations**: - **July 2025**: Excess annualized return 13.9%, excess return volatility ratio 1.0 [42][44]

宏观经济点评 就业市场走弱，通胀成为美联储降息关键掣肘 宏观研究团队 ——美国 7 月非农就业数据点评 | 何宁（分析师） | 潘纬桢（分析师） | | --- | --- | | hening@kysec.cn | panweizhen@kysec.cn | | 证书编号：S0790522110002 | 证书编号：S0790524040006 | 事件：美国公布 7 月非农就业数据。新增非农就业 7.3 万，低于市场预期；失 业率为 4.2%，符合市场预期；平均时薪同比增长 3.9%，高于市场预期。 新增非农就业下行较多，失业率上行，前值大幅下修 1. 新增非农就业超预期下行，且前值经历大幅下修 7 月美国新增非农就业 7.3 万人，较 6 月份初值（14.7 万）下降较多，且低于市 场预期的 10.4 万。5 月、6 月累计大幅下修 25.8 万，较为罕见 。趋势上看，近 3 个月平均新增就业 3.5 万人，下行斜率趋陡，美国劳动力市场出现了较为明显 的降温。结构上看，私人部门方面，商品制造减少了 1.3 万就业，教育和保健 服务、零售业新增就业较 6 月上升较多。政府就业在 7 月减少了 1.0 万， ...

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods - **Model Name**: Real-time Public Fund Positioning **Model Construction Idea**: This model estimates the real-time positioning of public funds based on publicly available market information such as fund net value, disclosed holdings, and research activities[3][20] **Model Construction Process**: The process involves complex data processing of public market information, including fund net value, disclosed holdings, and research activities. Detailed methodology is referenced in the report "偏股混合型基金指数（885001.WI）：优势、复制与超越"[20] - **Model Name**: ETF Fund Positioning **Model Construction Idea**: This model tracks the dynamics of ETF fund holdings as a key indicator of market fund flows, reflecting the growing importance of index investment in the A-share market[3][21] **Model Construction Process**: The model calculates the proportion of ETF holdings relative to the market capitalization of PCB sector stocks. As of Q2 2025, the total scale of public ETF funds exceeded 4.3 trillion yuan, with ETF holdings in the PCB sector at a historical high, accounting for 2.6% of the sector's market capitalization[21][23] - **Model Name**: Financing Balance Dynamics **Model Construction Idea**: This model uses financing balance as a proxy for investor sentiment, where an increase in financing balance indicates a bullish outlook on the market[3][25] **Model Construction Process**: The model tracks the total amount of outstanding financing in margin trading. The PCB sector's financing balance is at a historical high, while the short-selling balance remains at a low level[25][27] - **Model Name**: Chip Yield Characteristics **Model Construction Idea**: This model evaluates the profitability of the PCB sector based on chip yield, which measures the return of current prices relative to historical chip costs. It identifies momentum effects in strong markets and reversal effects in weak markets[3][26] **Model Construction Process**: The model estimates the average holding cost of funds at different price levels and calculates chip yield as the return of current prices relative to historical chip costs. The PCB sector's current profitability is 22.95%[26][28] Model Backtesting Results - **Real-time Public Fund Positioning**: No specific quantitative backtesting results provided - **ETF Fund Positioning**: ETF holdings account for 2.6% of the PCB sector's market capitalization[23] - **Financing Balance Dynamics**: Financing balance is at a historical high, while short-selling balance is at a low level[25][27] - **Chip Yield Characteristics**: Current profitability of the PCB sector is 22.95%[26][28] Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods - **Factor Name**: Chip Yield **Factor Construction Idea**: This factor measures the profitability of the PCB sector based on the return of current prices relative to historical chip costs[3][26] **Factor Construction Process**: The factor is calculated as the return of current prices relative to historical chip costs. It reflects momentum effects in strong markets and reversal effects in weak markets. The PCB sector's current chip yield is 22.95%[26][28] Factor Backtesting Results - **Chip Yield**: Current profitability of the PCB sector is 22.95%[26][28]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Hisense Home Appliances is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - In H1 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 49.34 billion yuan (up 1.4% year-on-year) and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.08 billion yuan (up 3.0%) [4] - The company has adjusted its profit forecast for 2025-2027, expecting net profits of 3.61 billion, 4.15 billion, and 4.69 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 2.60, 2.99, and 3.38 yuan [4] - Despite challenges in the central air conditioning sector and ongoing price wars, the company remains optimistic about profit improvement driven by strong overseas business growth [4] Financial Performance Summary - In H1 2025, the air conditioning segment generated revenue of 23.69 billion yuan (up 4.1%), while the ice washing segment saw revenue of 15.39 billion yuan (up 4.8%) with a significant improvement in profitability [5] - The gross margin for the air conditioning segment was 27.1% (down 1.6 percentage points), while the ice washing segment's gross margin improved to 18.7% (up 2.1 percentage points) [5] - Domestic revenue was 25.25 billion yuan (down 0.3%), while overseas revenue reached 20.45 billion yuan (up 12.3%), with notable growth in Europe (23%), the Americas (26%), and the Middle East and Africa (23%) [5] Profitability and Cost Management - The overall gross margin for H1 2025 was 21.5% (up 0.7 percentage points), with significant improvements in profitability from overseas and ice washing businesses [6] - The sales net profit margin for H1 2025 was 6.1% (up 0.5 percentage points), indicating stable cost management despite external pressures [6] Financial Projections - The company projects operating revenues of 97.18 billion yuan for 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of 4.8% [7] - The projected net profit for 2025 is 3.61 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 7.8% [7] - The estimated P/E ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 10.6, 9.2, and 8.2 respectively, indicating a favorable valuation trend [7]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [2] Core Insights - Since 2025, banks have shown a new characteristic of using short-term loans to replace bills for credit expansion, with significant seasonal growth in short-term loans [4][14] - The volatility of bill rates has decreased, and there is a notable inversion between short and long-term rates [24][34] - Investment recommendations focus on state-owned banks with controllable retail risks, joint-stock banks with high safety margins, and city and rural commercial banks with strong profit growth potential [7][36] Summary by Sections 1. New Characteristics of Credit Expansion - In 2025, banks have not prominently used bills to boost loans, but short-term loans have seen significant growth, with new additions of 1.44 trillion and 1.16 trillion yuan in March and June, respectively, exceeding historical averages [14][18] - Bill financing saw a notable contraction in June, with a decrease of 4.109 trillion yuan, significantly higher than the three-year average [14][18] 2. Decreased Volatility of Bill Rates - In the first half of 2025, the 6M national stock bill discount rate fluctuated between 0.98% and 1.60%, showing reduced volatility compared to 170 basis points in 2023 and 105 basis points in 2024 [24][29] - The weakening of the credit attribute of bills is attributed to banks preferring short-term loans for credit scale, leading to a lack of significant fluctuations in bill rates [24][29] 3. Investment Recommendations - Recommended stocks include state-owned banks with controllable retail risks, such as China Construction Bank and Agricultural Bank of China [36] - Joint-stock banks with high safety margins and signs of clearing existing risks, such as CITIC Bank and China Merchants Bank, are also recommended [36] - City and rural commercial banks with growth potential and strong provisioning capabilities, including Jiangsu Bank and Hangzhou Bank, are highlighted [36]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The recent security risks associated with Nvidia's H20 chip have drawn regulatory attention, highlighting the importance of a self-controlled supply chain in China [4][5] - The incident reflects the ongoing technological competition between China and the US, which may temporarily suppress capital expenditure from domestic internet companies but could ultimately drive the development of a stable and healthy AI industry in China [5] - Domestic internet companies are expected to accelerate their transition to local supply chains due to the uncertainties surrounding Nvidia's H20 supply [6] Summary by Sections Industry Trends - The AI chip industry in China is rapidly developing, with products like Huawei's Ascend 910B/910C surpassing Nvidia's H20 in computing performance [7] - Domestic manufacturers are making significant progress in technology and ecosystem development, with companies like Moore Threads and Huawei achieving breakthroughs [7] Supply Chain Challenges - The supply bottleneck in China's AI industry is becoming more pronounced, with domestic chip production facing limitations due to EUV export restrictions and TSMC's foundry constraints [7] - The production yield of domestic semiconductor equipment remains low due to developmental bottlenecks and lack of experience [7] Investment Recommendations - Beneficiaries in the AI chip sector include companies like Cambricon [8] - In the wafer foundry segment, companies such as SMIC and Hua Hong Semiconductor are recommended [8] - For lithography equipment, companies like Fuchuang Precision and Maolai Optics are highlighted [8] - Other recommended companies in front-end process equipment include North China Innovation and Zhongwei Technology [8] - In advanced packaging, companies like Chipbond and Huahai Qingke are suggested [8] - EDA beneficiaries include companies like Huada Jiutian and Gai Lun Electronics [8]