Core Insights - The report highlights the challenges faced by the Trump administration regarding trade negotiations, particularly following a recent ruling by the U.S. International Trade Court that questions the legality of tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) [1][2][3] - The ruling emphasizes the constitutional principle that tax and trade regulation powers are exclusive to Congress, suggesting that the President's unilateral imposition of tariffs may threaten the traditional separation of powers in the U.S. [2][3] - The potential cancellation of tariffs could significantly impact U.S. trade negotiations, as it may reduce the incentive for trade partners to seek compromises [3][5] Legal Context - The U.S. International Trade Court's ruling indicates that the President does not have the authority to impose unlimited tariffs under IEEPA, as such powers are constitutionally reserved for Congress [6] - The court found that tariffs imposed for trade deficit reasons must follow a legislative process with specific limits, which the President bypassed [6] - The ruling also stated that tariffs related to drug smuggling do not meet the criteria for emergency action under IEEPA, as drug trafficking is a long-standing issue rather than an "abnormal and special threat" [6] Economic Implications - If tariffs are fully lifted, it is expected that China's exports and nominal GDP could see a significant recovery, with potential growth in exports projected at around 4% for the year [5] - The report notes that previous concerns over tariffs have led to preemptive actions in exports, which may result in a normalization of growth rates following any tariff relief [5][8] - The overall sentiment suggests that the trade landscape may shift significantly depending on the outcomes of ongoing legal and political developments surrounding tariffs [3][5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [3][5]. Core Views - The merger between Haiguang Information and Zhongke Shuguang is seen as a strong union that will complement each other's advantages, optimizing the industrial layout from chips to software and systems [1][2]. - Haiguang Information has a leading market share in domestic server CPUs at 53.6% and over 30% in the domestic GPU market, indicating its strong position in the industry [1]. - The expected financial performance for Haiguang Information shows significant growth, with projected net profits of 30.66 billion, 43.57 billion, and 59.92 billion for the years 2025 to 2027, respectively [3][4]. Financial Performance Summary - For 2024, Haiguang Information is projected to achieve revenue of 91.62 billion, a year-on-year increase of 52.4%, with a net profit of 19.31 billion, up 52.87% [3][4]. - Zhongke Shuguang is expected to report revenue of 131.48 billion in 2024, a decrease of 8.4%, with a net profit of 19.11 billion, reflecting a growth of 4.1% [3]. - The forecasted revenue growth rates for Haiguang Information from 2025 to 2027 are 50.9%, 39.9%, and 36.0%, respectively [4][9]. Earnings Forecast and Financial Indicators - The earnings per share (EPS) for Haiguang Information is projected to be 0.83, 1.32, 1.87, and 2.58 for the years 2024 to 2027 [4][9]. - The price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is expected to decrease from 164 in 2024 to 53 in 2027, indicating improving valuation over time [4][9]. - The company is expected to maintain a gross margin of around 63.72% to 64.71% from 2024 to 2027, showcasing strong profitability [8][9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [6] Core Insights - The company achieved a record revenue of 1112.93 billion RMB in Q1 2025, representing a year-over-year increase of 47.4% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 2.1% [2][3] - Adjusted net profit reached 106.76 billion RMB, up 64.5% year-over-year and 28.4% quarter-over-quarter, with an adjusted net profit margin of 9.6% [2][3] - The company is focusing on its all-ecosystem strategy, which includes smartphones, AI, and IoT, contributing to robust growth across its business segments [2][3] Revenue Breakdown - The smartphone and AIoT segment generated revenue of 927.13 billion RMB, a year-over-year increase of 22.8% [2] - The IoT business saw revenue of 323.39 billion RMB, up 58.7% year-over-year, driven by a doubling of income from smart home appliances [3] - The automotive segment generated 185.80 billion RMB, with a gross margin of 23.2%, despite a quarterly operating loss of 5 billion RMB [3] Financial Projections - The company forecasts revenues of 5062.65 billion RMB, 6052.13 billion RMB, and 7008.88 billion RMB for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [4] - Expected net profits for the same years are projected at 357.09 billion RMB, 457.75 billion RMB, and 598.89 billion RMB [4] - The report anticipates a decrease in P/E ratios from 35 in 2025 to 21 in 2027, indicating potential growth in profitability [4] Research and Development - The company plans to invest 200 billion RMB in core technology over the next five years, with R&D spending reaching 67 billion RMB in Q1 2025, a 30.1% increase year-over-year [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [3][5]. Core Views - The merger between Haiguang Information and Zhongke Shuguang is seen as a strong union that will complement each other's advantages, optimizing the industrial layout from chips to software and systems [1][2]. - Haiguang Information has a leading market share in domestic server CPUs at 53.6% and over 30% in the domestic GPU market, indicating strong competitive positioning [1]. - The expected financial performance shows significant growth, with projected net profits of 30.66 billion, 43.57 billion, and 59.92 billion for the years 2025 to 2027, respectively [3]. Financial Performance Summary - For 2024, Haiguang Information is projected to achieve revenue of 91.62 billion, a year-on-year increase of 52.4%, with a net profit of 19.31 billion, up 52.87% [3][4]. - Zhongke Shuguang is expected to report revenue of 131.48 billion in 2024, a decrease of 8.4%, but with a net profit of 19.11 billion, reflecting a growth of 4.1% [3]. - The forecasted revenue growth rates for Haiguang Information are 50.9% for 2025, 39.9% for 2026, and 36.0% for 2027 [4][9]. Earnings Forecast and Financial Indicators - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for Haiguang Information are 0.83, 1.32, 1.87, and 2.58 for the years 2024 to 2027, respectively [4][9]. - The price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is expected to decrease from 164 in 2024 to 53 by 2027, indicating improving valuation metrics [4][9]. - The company is expected to maintain a gross margin of around 63.72% to 64.71% over the forecast period [8][9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for key companies in the chemical industry, specifically recommending Minsheng Chemical's "Five Tigers": Shengquan Group, Guocera Materials, Guoguang Co., Anli Co., and Polymeric Co. [1][4] Core Insights - The chemical market is active, with growth stocks presenting a favorable allocation opportunity. The demand for phosphate fertilizers remains stable, and the high price of phosphate rock is expected to continue due to supply-demand balance. [1] - The domestic production capacity of polycarbonate (PC) is projected to grow significantly from 875,000 tons in 2018 to 3,810,000 tons by 2024, with an expected improvement in supply-demand dynamics from 2025 to 2029. [2] - The organic silicon industry is experiencing a recovery in the supply-demand balance, with a compound annual growth rate of 22.4% in production capacity from 2021 to 2024, driven by demand from emerging industries such as new energy vehicles and photovoltaics. [2] Summary by Sections Chemical Market Overview - The basic chemical industry index closed at 3,406.53 points, down 1.23% from the previous week, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.05%. [10] - Among 462 stocks in the chemical sector, 31% rose while 67% fell during the week. [18] Key Chemical Sub-Industries - **Polyester Filament**: The market is stable with slight price increases, and the average industry operating rate is approximately 89.96%. [26][27] - **Tires**: The operating rate for all-steel tires is 60.12%, down 2.88 percentage points from the previous week. [40] - **Refrigerants**: Prices for refrigerants like R22 and R134a are stable to strong, with R22 averaging 36,000 CNY/ton and R134a at 48,000 CNY/ton. [45][47] Price Trends - The top price increases for chemical products include cotton short velvet (up 15%), trichloromethane (up 14%), and domestic naphtha (up 13%). [24] - Conversely, the largest price drops were seen in liquid chlorine (down 71%) and TMA (down 9%). [25] Company Profit Forecasts - Guoguang Co. is projected to have an EPS of 0.78 CNY in 2024, with a PE ratio of 19, while Shengquan Group is expected to have an EPS of 1.03 CNY with a PE ratio of 25. Both companies are rated as "Recommended." [4]

2025 年 4 月工业企业利润点评 中游行业缘何"逆流向上"？ 2025 年 05 月 27 日 邮箱：taochuan@mszq.com 邮箱：zhongyumei@mszq.com ➢ 事件：5 月 27 日，国家统计局发布数据显示，1—4 月份，全国规模以上工 业企业实现利润总额 21170.2 亿元，同比增长 1.4%。 ➢ 中美贸易摩擦加剧的 4 月，工业企业利润增速却在"逆势向前"。工业企业 利润同比增速从 3 月的 2.6%进一步抬升至 4 月的 3.0%，而这背后受"抢转口" 的拉动不小——从不同行业来看，4 月中游行业表现最为亮眼，而大多数利润增 速靠前的中游行业，其 4 月出口增速也并不弱；从不同企业类型来看，4 月与出 口紧密度更高的私营企业利润增速最快。具体而言： ➢ 三因素框架来看，生产的支撑性在减弱。量、价、利润率拆解来看，4 月表 现为"量上价下、利润率负增"的形势，这与 1-3 月的情形保持基本一致，但与 此前不同的是，4 月生产的支撑性在下降，取而代之的是营收利润率改善幅度明 显、从而对企业利润增速形成支撑。我们在此前的报告《关税颠簸下的宏观拼图》 中提出，中美关税政策的反 ...

医药行业周报 板块热度不减，看好创新药+医药新消费领域 2025 年 05 月 26 日 ➢ 医药周观点：创新药板块催化不断，作为全年医药主线，创新药板块重点关注抗肿 瘤、自免、GLP-1、干细胞、基因治疗等方向，同时继续关注医药国产替代、医药消费特 别是医美（胶原蛋白方向等）、底部优质出海标的。 ➢ 1）创新药：ASCO 会议摘要发布，众多国产创新药重磅数据披露。恒瑞医药 H 股上 市，开盘价 57 港元/股，较发行价上涨 29.4%；众生药业昂拉地韦片获批上市，治疗成人 单纯性甲型流感，加科思与艾力斯合作开发的 KRAS G12C 抑制剂戈来雷塞获批上市。2） CXO：国内需求逐步回暖，海外需求平稳向上，且目前对关税政策免疫，看好板块龙头企 业逐季度订单和报表的持续兑现带来的估值修复，重点关注药明生物、药明康德、凯莱英 和康龙化成。3）中医药：中医药方面，后续建议关注与生育补贴息息相关的标的，例如 具备儿科用药布局的济川药业、葵花药业等。4）疫苗及血制品：持续看好静丙行业未来 3-5 年的发展潜力，其次关注浆站数量变化及头部集中背景下吨浆利润提升驱动的行业上 行周期中潜在受益的龙头公司，重视重组人白的获批 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive investment rating for the innovative drug and new medical consumption sectors, particularly focusing on areas such as oncology, autoimmune diseases, GLP-1, stem cell therapy, and gene therapy [1][5]. Core Insights - The innovative drug sector is highlighted as a key focus for the year, with significant data released from the ASCO conference, showcasing various domestic innovative drugs [2][3]. - The CXO sector is expected to see a recovery in demand both domestically and internationally, with leading companies likely to benefit from improved order fulfillment and valuation recovery [3][9]. - The report emphasizes the potential of traditional Chinese medicine, particularly companies involved in pediatric medications [3]. - The blood products sector is projected to experience growth driven by increased demand for immunoglobulin products and potential price increases due to supply constraints [3][22]. - The vaccine sector is facing challenges but has potential in specific areas such as HPV vaccines and other incremental opportunities [3][26]. - The upstream pharmaceutical supply chain is expected to recover, benefiting from mergers and acquisitions in the life sciences sector [3][28]. - The medical device sector is advised to focus on companies like Mindray Medical and others that are positioned to benefit from ongoing domestic demand and policy support [3][37]. - The report suggests that offline pharmacies are stabilizing, with a focus on companies with strong supply chain capabilities [3][45]. - The raw material drug sector is viewed positively, with opportunities arising from price stabilization and business transformation [3][48]. - The report highlights the potential for domestic substitutes in the innovative device sector, particularly in electrophysiology and neurointervention [3][50]. Summary by Sections Innovative Drugs - The report notes significant clinical data releases from the ASCO conference, with multiple domestic drugs making progress in clinical trials [3][14][66]. - The A-share chemical preparation sector saw a weekly increase of 3.70%, indicating positive market sentiment [15]. CXO Sector - The CXO sector is expected to benefit from supportive policies and a reduction in geopolitical risks, leading to a potential valuation recovery [9]. Traditional Chinese Medicine - The report indicates a slight increase in the SW secondary traditional Chinese medicine index, outperforming the broader market indices [17]. Blood Products - The report emphasizes the importance of companies with established product lines in the immunoglobulin market, anticipating a price increase due to supply shortages [22]. Vaccines - The vaccine sector is under pressure, but there are opportunities in specific high-demand areas such as HPV vaccines [26]. Upstream Supply Chain - The report suggests focusing on companies that can leverage brand and operational efficiencies in the chemical and biological reagent sectors [28]. Medical Devices - The report highlights the importance of continuous innovation and market expansion for companies in the medical device sector [37]. Offline Pharmacies - The report notes that offline pharmacies are stabilizing, with a focus on companies that can enhance their service and operational capabilities [45]. Raw Material Drugs - The report identifies opportunities in the raw material drug sector, particularly for companies with strong quality and cost management [48]. Innovative Devices - The report suggests that domestic companies are well-positioned to benefit from the ongoing trend of import substitution in the medical device sector [50].

有色金属周报 20250525 美债信用弱化+地缘局势升温，看好金价表现 2025 年 05 月 25 日 ➢ 本周（05/19-05/23）上证综指下跌 0.94%，沪深 300 指数下跌 0.81%，SW 有 色指数上涨 0.08%，贵金属 COMEX 黄金变动+4.75%，COMEX 白银变动-0.91%。工 业金属 LME 铝、铜、锌、铅、镍、锡价格分别变动-0.74%、+1.84%、+0.99%、- 0.60%、-0.22%、+0.08%，工业金属库存 LME 铝、铜、锌、铅、镍、锡分别变动- 2.75%、-8.17%、-6.52%、+18.15%、+1.75%、-2.56%。 ➢ 工业金属：中美谈判暂未见新实质性动作，受累于美国减税和支出议案争议，以 及 20 年期美债标售需求疲软，市场对美经济前景担忧。国内释放货币政策宽松信号， 刺激经济增长和投资消费需求。看好工业金属表现。铜方面，供应端本周 SMM 进口铜 精矿指数（周）报-44.28 美元/干吨，环比减少 1.23 美元/干吨。周内 Newmont 招标 结果 2 万吨 Red Chris 铜矿中标价格-80 美元。Kamoa-Kakula ...

有色金属周报 20250525 美债信用弱化+地缘局势升温，看好金价表现 2025 年 05 月 25 日 ➢ 本周（05/19-05/23）上证综指下跌 0.94%，沪深 300 指数下跌 0.81%，SW 有 色指数上涨 0.08%，贵金属 COMEX 黄金变动+4.75%，COMEX 白银变动-0.91%。工 业金属 LME 铝、铜、锌、铅、镍、锡价格分别变动-0.74%、+1.84%、+0.99%、- 0.60%、-0.22%、+0.08%，工业金属库存 LME 铝、铜、锌、铅、镍、锡分别变动- 2.75%、-8.17%、-6.52%、+18.15%、+1.75%、-2.56%。 ➢ 工业金属：中美谈判暂未见新实质性动作，受累于美国减税和支出议案争议，以 及 20 年期美债标售需求疲软，市场对美经济前景担忧。国内释放货币政策宽松信号， 刺激经济增长和投资消费需求。看好工业金属表现。铜方面，供应端本周 SMM 进口铜 精矿指数（周）报-44.28 美元/干吨，环比减少 1.23 美元/干吨。周内 Newmont 招标 结果 2 万吨 Red Chris 铜矿中标价格-80 美元。Kamoa-Kakula ...