2025 年 4 月工业企业利润点评 中游行业缘何"逆流向上"？ 2025 年 05 月 27 日 邮箱：taochuan@mszq.com 邮箱：zhongyumei@mszq.com ➢ 事件：5 月 27 日，国家统计局发布数据显示，1—4 月份，全国规模以上工 业企业实现利润总额 21170.2 亿元，同比增长 1.4%。 ➢ 中美贸易摩擦加剧的 4 月，工业企业利润增速却在"逆势向前"。工业企业 利润同比增速从 3 月的 2.6%进一步抬升至 4 月的 3.0%，而这背后受"抢转口" 的拉动不小——从不同行业来看，4 月中游行业表现最为亮眼，而大多数利润增 速靠前的中游行业，其 4 月出口增速也并不弱；从不同企业类型来看，4 月与出 口紧密度更高的私营企业利润增速最快。具体而言： ➢ 三因素框架来看，生产的支撑性在减弱。量、价、利润率拆解来看，4 月表 现为"量上价下、利润率负增"的形势，这与 1-3 月的情形保持基本一致，但与 此前不同的是，4 月生产的支撑性在下降，取而代之的是营收利润率改善幅度明 显、从而对企业利润增速形成支撑。我们在此前的报告《关税颠簸下的宏观拼图》 中提出，中美关税政策的反 ...

医药行业周报 板块热度不减，看好创新药+医药新消费领域 2025 年 05 月 26 日 ➢ 医药周观点：创新药板块催化不断，作为全年医药主线，创新药板块重点关注抗肿 瘤、自免、GLP-1、干细胞、基因治疗等方向，同时继续关注医药国产替代、医药消费特 别是医美（胶原蛋白方向等）、底部优质出海标的。 ➢ 1）创新药：ASCO 会议摘要发布，众多国产创新药重磅数据披露。恒瑞医药 H 股上 市，开盘价 57 港元/股，较发行价上涨 29.4%；众生药业昂拉地韦片获批上市，治疗成人 单纯性甲型流感，加科思与艾力斯合作开发的 KRAS G12C 抑制剂戈来雷塞获批上市。2） CXO：国内需求逐步回暖，海外需求平稳向上，且目前对关税政策免疫，看好板块龙头企 业逐季度订单和报表的持续兑现带来的估值修复，重点关注药明生物、药明康德、凯莱英 和康龙化成。3）中医药：中医药方面，后续建议关注与生育补贴息息相关的标的，例如 具备儿科用药布局的济川药业、葵花药业等。4）疫苗及血制品：持续看好静丙行业未来 3-5 年的发展潜力，其次关注浆站数量变化及头部集中背景下吨浆利润提升驱动的行业上 行周期中潜在受益的龙头公司，重视重组人白的获批 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive investment rating for the innovative drug and new medical consumption sectors, particularly focusing on areas such as oncology, autoimmune diseases, GLP-1, stem cell therapy, and gene therapy [1][5]. Core Insights - The innovative drug sector is highlighted as a key focus for the year, with significant data released from the ASCO conference, showcasing various domestic innovative drugs [2][3]. - The CXO sector is expected to see a recovery in demand both domestically and internationally, with leading companies likely to benefit from improved order fulfillment and valuation recovery [3][9]. - The report emphasizes the potential of traditional Chinese medicine, particularly companies involved in pediatric medications [3]. - The blood products sector is projected to experience growth driven by increased demand for immunoglobulin products and potential price increases due to supply constraints [3][22]. - The vaccine sector is facing challenges but has potential in specific areas such as HPV vaccines and other incremental opportunities [3][26]. - The upstream pharmaceutical supply chain is expected to recover, benefiting from mergers and acquisitions in the life sciences sector [3][28]. - The medical device sector is advised to focus on companies like Mindray Medical and others that are positioned to benefit from ongoing domestic demand and policy support [3][37]. - The report suggests that offline pharmacies are stabilizing, with a focus on companies with strong supply chain capabilities [3][45]. - The raw material drug sector is viewed positively, with opportunities arising from price stabilization and business transformation [3][48]. - The report highlights the potential for domestic substitutes in the innovative device sector, particularly in electrophysiology and neurointervention [3][50]. Summary by Sections Innovative Drugs - The report notes significant clinical data releases from the ASCO conference, with multiple domestic drugs making progress in clinical trials [3][14][66]. - The A-share chemical preparation sector saw a weekly increase of 3.70%, indicating positive market sentiment [15]. CXO Sector - The CXO sector is expected to benefit from supportive policies and a reduction in geopolitical risks, leading to a potential valuation recovery [9]. Traditional Chinese Medicine - The report indicates a slight increase in the SW secondary traditional Chinese medicine index, outperforming the broader market indices [17]. Blood Products - The report emphasizes the importance of companies with established product lines in the immunoglobulin market, anticipating a price increase due to supply shortages [22]. Vaccines - The vaccine sector is under pressure, but there are opportunities in specific high-demand areas such as HPV vaccines [26]. Upstream Supply Chain - The report suggests focusing on companies that can leverage brand and operational efficiencies in the chemical and biological reagent sectors [28]. Medical Devices - The report highlights the importance of continuous innovation and market expansion for companies in the medical device sector [37]. Offline Pharmacies - The report notes that offline pharmacies are stabilizing, with a focus on companies that can enhance their service and operational capabilities [45]. Raw Material Drugs - The report identifies opportunities in the raw material drug sector, particularly for companies with strong quality and cost management [48]. Innovative Devices - The report suggests that domestic companies are well-positioned to benefit from the ongoing trend of import substitution in the medical device sector [50].

有色金属周报 20250525 美债信用弱化+地缘局势升温，看好金价表现 2025 年 05 月 25 日 ➢ 本周（05/19-05/23）上证综指下跌 0.94%，沪深 300 指数下跌 0.81%，SW 有 色指数上涨 0.08%，贵金属 COMEX 黄金变动+4.75%，COMEX 白银变动-0.91%。工 业金属 LME 铝、铜、锌、铅、镍、锡价格分别变动-0.74%、+1.84%、+0.99%、- 0.60%、-0.22%、+0.08%，工业金属库存 LME 铝、铜、锌、铅、镍、锡分别变动- 2.75%、-8.17%、-6.52%、+18.15%、+1.75%、-2.56%。 ➢ 工业金属：中美谈判暂未见新实质性动作，受累于美国减税和支出议案争议，以 及 20 年期美债标售需求疲软，市场对美经济前景担忧。国内释放货币政策宽松信号， 刺激经济增长和投资消费需求。看好工业金属表现。铜方面，供应端本周 SMM 进口铜 精矿指数（周）报-44.28 美元/干吨，环比减少 1.23 美元/干吨。周内 Newmont 招标 结果 2 万吨 Red Chris 铜矿中标价格-80 美元。Kamoa-Kakula ...

有色金属周报 20250525 美债信用弱化+地缘局势升温，看好金价表现 2025 年 05 月 25 日 ➢ 本周（05/19-05/23）上证综指下跌 0.94%，沪深 300 指数下跌 0.81%，SW 有 色指数上涨 0.08%，贵金属 COMEX 黄金变动+4.75%，COMEX 白银变动-0.91%。工 业金属 LME 铝、铜、锌、铅、镍、锡价格分别变动-0.74%、+1.84%、+0.99%、- 0.60%、-0.22%、+0.08%，工业金属库存 LME 铝、铜、锌、铅、镍、锡分别变动- 2.75%、-8.17%、-6.52%、+18.15%、+1.75%、-2.56%。 ➢ 工业金属：中美谈判暂未见新实质性动作，受累于美国减税和支出议案争议，以 及 20 年期美债标售需求疲软，市场对美经济前景担忧。国内释放货币政策宽松信号， 刺激经济增长和投资消费需求。看好工业金属表现。铜方面，供应端本周 SMM 进口铜 精矿指数（周）报-44.28 美元/干吨，环比减少 1.23 美元/干吨。周内 Newmont 招标 结果 2 万吨 Red Chris 铜矿中标价格-80 美元。Kamoa-Kakula ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Xiaomi Group with a target price of HKD 53.00, indicating a potential upside of over 15% relative to the benchmark index [6]. Core Insights - Xiaomi has achieved significant milestones, including maintaining a top-three global market share in smartphones for 19 consecutive quarters, successfully launching its automotive and chip businesses, and completing its ecosystem strategy [1][3]. - The introduction of the new self-developed chips, the Xiaomi玄戒 O1 and T1, positions the company among the leading flagship chip manufacturers, enhancing its competitive edge in the market [2]. - The company is expected to see substantial revenue growth, with projected revenues of RMB 506.27 billion, RMB 605.21 billion, and RMB 700.89 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, alongside net profits of RMB 35.71 billion, RMB 45.78 billion, and RMB 59.89 billion for the same years [5][3]. Summary by Sections Product Launch and Achievements - Xiaomi unveiled its new玄戒 O1 and T1 chips and the YU7 SUV series during its 15th-anniversary event, showcasing a range of innovative products [1]. - The玄戒 O1 chip features advanced specifications, including a 3nm process, 19 billion transistors, and a multi-core CPU architecture, achieving over 3 million points on AnTuTu benchmark [2]. Automotive Business - The cumulative delivery of the Xiaomi SU7 series has surpassed 258,000 units, and the YU7 series is set to launch in July, featuring impressive specifications such as a range of 835 km for the standard version [3]. Financial Projections - The report forecasts significant revenue and profit growth for Xiaomi, with a projected revenue increase of 35% in 2024 and a steady growth trajectory in subsequent years [5][3]. - The expected earnings per share (EPS) are projected to rise from RMB 0.91 in 2024 to RMB 2.31 by 2027, reflecting strong profitability growth [5].

汽车和汽车零部件行业周报 20250525 小米、小鹏自研芯片 智能化竞争升维 2025 年 05 月 25 日 ➢ 本周数据：2025 年 5 月第 3 周（5.12-5.18）乘用车销量 38.9 万辆，同比 +17.8%，环比-14.3%；新能源乘用车销量 21.7 万辆，同比+29.5%，环比-3.9%； 新能源渗透率 55.8%，环比+6.0%。 ➢ 本周行情：汽车板块本周表现强于市场。本周（5 月 19 日-5 月 23 日）A 股 汽车板块上涨 3.27%，在申万子行业中排名第 2 位，表现强于沪深 300（-0.76%）。 细分板块中，商用载货车、乘用车、汽车零部件、商用载客车、汽车服务分别上 涨 9.49%、5.86%、1.41%、1.14%、0.05%，摩托车及其他下跌 0.19% ➢ 本周观点：本月建议关注核心组合【比亚迪、吉利汽车、小鹏汽车、小米集 团、伯特利、拓普集团、新泉股份、沪光股份、春风动力】。 ➢ 新车催化密集 智驾平权提振估值。本周，小米自研 3 纳米旗舰 SoC 芯片 "玄戒 O1"正式发布，同时首款豪华高性能纯电 SUV 小米 YU7 开启预售并计 划 7 月上市；小鹏 ...

非银行业周报 20250525 险资一季度加仓股票 2025 年 05 月 25 日 ➢ 保险资金运用余额稳健增长，险资一季度加仓股票明显。截至 2025 年一季 度 末 ， 资 金 运 用 结 构 中 ， 人 身 险 公 司 股 票 / 基 金 / 债 券 的 占 比 分 别 为 8.4%/4.7%/51.2%，较 2024 年末分别+0.9pct/-0.3pct/+0.9pct；财险公司股 票 / 基 金 / 债 券 的 占 比 分 别 为 7.6%/8.2%/40.0% ， 分 别 同 比 +0.4pct/- 0.9pct/+0.9pct；寿险公司和财险公司合计股票/基金/债券的占比分别为 8.4%/4.9%/50.4%，分别同比+0.8pct/-0.3pct/+0.9pct。整体来看，险资一季 度加仓股票、减持基金的趋势明显，同时债券投资占比仍继续环比提升近 1pct。 ➢ 从整体体量看，保险资金运用规模实现稳健增长，截至 2025 年一季度末， 保险行业资金运用规模为 34.93 万亿元，较 2024 年末增长 5.0%。近期中国平 安再次公告了公司举牌农业银行 H 股，公司增持后持仓已经达到农业银 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Xiaomi Group, indicating a positive outlook for the company's stock performance in the next 12 months [6]. Core Insights - Xiaomi has achieved significant milestones, including maintaining a top-three global market share in smartphones for 19 consecutive quarters, successfully launching its automotive and chip businesses, and completing its ecosystem strategy [1][3]. - The introduction of the Xiaomi玄戒 O1 and T1 chips positions the company among the leading flagship chip manufacturers, with the O1 chip utilizing advanced 3nm technology and achieving over 3 million points in AnTuTu benchmarks [2]. - The company has delivered over 258,000 units of the SU7 series and is set to launch the YU7 series, which features impressive specifications such as a range of 835 km for the standard version [3]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for Xiaomi are as follows: 2025 estimated revenue of 506.27 billion RMB, 2026 at 605.21 billion RMB, and 2027 at 700.89 billion RMB, reflecting growth rates of 38.4%, 19.5%, and 15.8% respectively [5]. - The net profit estimates are projected to be 35.71 billion RMB for 2025, 45.78 billion RMB for 2026, and 59.89 billion RMB for 2027, with corresponding growth rates of 50.9%, 28.2%, and 30.8% [5]. - The report anticipates a decrease in the price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio from 36 in 2025 to 21 in 2027, indicating an improving valuation as earnings grow [5]. Strategic Developments - Xiaomi's investment in research and development has exceeded 100 billion RMB over the past five years, with an additional 200 billion RMB planned for the next five years, highlighting the company's commitment to innovation [1]. - The successful integration of self-developed chips and the launch of the YU7 series are expected to enhance Xiaomi's high-end smartphone strategy and accelerate growth in its automotive business, which is viewed as a new growth curve for the company [3].

汽车和汽车零部件行业周报 20250525 小米、小鹏自研芯片 智能化竞争升维 2025 年 05 月 25 日 ➢ 本周数据：2025 年 5 月第 3 周（5.12-5.18）乘用车销量 38.9 万辆，同比 +17.8%，环比-14.3%；新能源乘用车销量 21.7 万辆，同比+29.5%，环比-3.9%； 新能源渗透率 55.8%，环比+6.0%。 ➢ 本周行情：汽车板块本周表现强于市场。本周（5 月 19 日-5 月 23 日）A 股 汽车板块上涨 3.27%，在申万子行业中排名第 2 位，表现强于沪深 300（-0.76%）。 细分板块中，商用载货车、乘用车、汽车零部件、商用载客车、汽车服务分别上 涨 9.49%、5.86%、1.41%、1.14%、0.05%，摩托车及其他下跌 0.19% ➢ 本周观点：本月建议关注核心组合【比亚迪、吉利汽车、小鹏汽车、小米集 团、伯特利、拓普集团、新泉股份、沪光股份、春风动力】。 ➢ 新车催化密集 智驾平权提振估值。本周，小米自研 3 纳米旗舰 SoC 芯片 "玄戒 O1"正式发布，同时首款豪华高性能纯电 SUV 小米 YU7 开启预售并计 划 7 月上市；小鹏 ...