Group 1 - The deep value investment philosophy is derived from Graham's "cigar butt" approach, focusing on stocks priced significantly below their liquidation value, particularly during economic downturns [8][10] - The deep value fund pool has demonstrated stable historical returns, with an annualized return of 11.05% from February 2, 2015, to May 8, 2025, outperforming the equity fund index by 4.54% [10][13] - The fund pool exhibits a high-risk return ratio, with an annualized volatility of 20.46% and a Sharpe ratio of 0.54, indicating strong return stability [10][13] Group 2 - The excess returns of the fund pool are primarily attributed to dynamic allocation, style configuration, and stock selection, favoring low momentum, low elasticity, and low volatility styles [2][13] - The current portfolio has shifted towards increased allocation in the consumer sector while maintaining exposure to manufacturing and TMT sectors [21][22] - The deep value fund pool is defined by absolute undervaluation characteristics, with a focus on funds that have positive exposure to the BP factor and high expected net profit [24][25] Group 3 - The current deep value fund list includes several funds with varying scales and returns, such as Guangfa Stable Strategy with a scale of 2.39 billion and a return of 4.55% [25] - The fund pool's historical performance shows resilience even during market style shifts, maintaining positive absolute returns despite some drawdowns [13][21] - The fund pool's industry allocation has primarily been in financial and cyclical sectors, with recent adjustments to increase consumer sector exposure [21][22]

基金分析报告 景气价值基金池 202505：科技制造为主 2025 年 05 月 12 日 ➢ 注重公司以及所处赛道的成长性并兼顾估值水平。以彼得·林奇为代表的景 气价值投资策略，更注重公司以及所处赛道的成长性并兼顾估值水平，因而也属 于价值投资范畴，这一投资理念对内在价值的审美更多在于增长潜力而非竞争优 势，景气价值公司的成长未必来源于竞争优势，也可为行业赛道的扩张。本报告 将优选市场当前的景气价值基金，以供对其有配置需求的投资者参考。 ➢ 景气价值型基金池：具备更高的弹性。2015 年 2 月 2 日至 2025 年 5 月 8 日，基金池年化收益率为 8.92%，相对于偏股基金指数超额收益为 2.41%，组合 年化波动为 26.95%。基金池在景气投资表现较好的区间具备比偏股基金指数更 高的收益弹性。 ➢ 超额收益主要源自行业配置，风格更偏成长。景气价值型基金池超额主要来 自于行业配置、动态和选股，其中行业配置的贡献更为明显。风格偏向高流动性、 高动量、高弹性、偏中盘，价值属性整体较弱，更偏成长。当前行业上以 TMT 为 主，更加注重行业的成长性，但 2021 年中到 2022 年底则明显增配了周期赛道 ...

Group 1 - The core investment strategy focuses on buying companies with competitive advantages at reasonable prices to earn compounded growth, emphasizing strong business models and financial robustness [1][8] - The growth value fund pool has shown a stable annualized return of 15.74% from February 2, 2015, to May 8, 2025, outperforming the equity fund index by 9.23% [9][13] - The fund pool's annualized volatility is 20.98%, with a Sharpe ratio of 0.75, indicating strong performance in bull markets and effective drawdown control in bear markets [9][13] Group 2 - The primary source of excess returns is stock selection, with significant contributions from industry allocation and dynamic adjustments [2][13] - The growth value fund pool is defined by its relative undervaluation characteristics, focusing on funds with positive exposure to the PB-ROE factor [21] - Selected funds exhibit high and stable dynamic returns, with a focus on industry and stock selection [22] Group 3 - The report lists a new growth value fund portfolio, highlighting funds such as "Guangfa Value Core A" with a return of 27.79% and "Invesco Financial Industry A" with a return of 5.32% [3][22] - The fund pool has increased its allocation to the TMT sector while reducing exposure to consumer and cyclical sectors [18][15] - The report emphasizes the importance of matching individual company performance with industry trends for effective stock selection [25]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance in the next 12 months [3][5]. Core Views - The company is expected to experience significant growth in gold production following the completion of its expansion project, with an anticipated annual output of 12.9 tons, representing a 514.3% increase from 2.1 tons in 2024 [2][3]. - The partnership with Zijin Mining is expected to enhance the development speed and efficiency of the company's gold mining operations, particularly at the Jinling Gold Mine [2][3]. - The report projects substantial increases in revenue and net profit from 2025 to 2027, with net profits estimated at 1.26 billion, 1.59 billion, and 1.95 billion RMB respectively [4][6]. Summary by Sections Investment Highlights - The company has entered into significant contracts for mining technology services and feasibility studies for expansion, with a total contract value of 1.69 million RMB for the Jinling Mine [1]. - Zijin Mining's acquisition of a 17.57% stake in the company through a share issuance of 1.66 billion shares at 8.33 HKD per share, totaling 1.379 billion HKD, will fund the expansion and operational costs [2]. Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to grow from 1.88 billion RMB in 2024 to 4.89 billion RMB in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 42.6% [4][6]. - The company's earnings per share (EPS) are expected to rise from 0.53 RMB in 2024 to 1.80 RMB in 2027, reflecting strong profitability growth [4][6]. Valuation Metrics - The report provides a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio forecast of 19X for 2025, 15X for 2026, and 12X for 2027, indicating an attractive valuation as earnings grow [4][6]. - The price-to-book (P/B) ratio is expected to decrease from 7.6 in 2024 to 3.7 in 2027, suggesting improved shareholder value over time [4][6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance in the coming year [3][5]. Core Views - The company is expected to experience significant growth in gold production following the completion of its expansion project, with an anticipated annual output of 12.9 tons, representing a 514.3% increase from 2.1 tons in 2024 [2][3]. - The partnership with Zijin Mining is expected to enhance the development speed and efficiency of the company's gold mining operations, particularly at the Jinling Gold Mine [2][3]. - The report highlights the company's strong financial performance, projecting net profits of 1.26 billion, 1.59 billion, and 1.95 billion RMB for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.17, 1.47, and 1.80 RMB [3][4]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company has entered into significant contracts for mining technology services and feasibility studies for expansion, with a total contract value of 1.69 million RMB for the Jinling Mine [1]. - Zijin Mining holds a 17.57% stake in the company, which is expected to facilitate the expansion of the Jinling Gold Mine [2]. Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to grow from 1.88 billion RMB in 2024 to 4.89 billion RMB in 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 42.6% [4][6]. - The company's net profit is expected to increase significantly, with a growth rate of 119.5% in 2025 and 26.2% in 2026 [4][6]. Valuation Metrics - The report provides a valuation based on projected earnings, with P/E ratios decreasing from 41 in 2024 to 12 in 2027, indicating improving profitability and valuation attractiveness over time [4][6].

可转债周报 20250511 关注弱资质转债风险 2025 年 05 月 11 日 ➢ 转债周度专题 当前转债整体价格及估值已基本修复至关税事件冲击以前。历史来看，自 4 月中下旬开始随着年报逐渐披露，弱资质转债下跌风险逐步攀升，易进一步引发 低信用评级转债整体下调风险，当前仍需关注弱资质转债信用风险。 2024 年 4 月"国九条"出台，对上市公司分红及退市规则等有所调整，今 年开始新规正式实施。分红不达标风险警示方面，结合财务数据来看，当前主板、 科创/创业板转债主体均不存在分红不达标被实施风险警示、退市风险，且转债 主体三年累计分红占归母净利比均值今年显著提升。 退市风险中，财务类退市指标看，2024 年财务数据显示转债主体利润、营 收指标亦均高于新规下退市标准，无直接退市风险，但部分转债主体 2024 年业 绩明显偏弱，未来年度若业绩进一步恶化或面临一定退市风险。 2024 年年报审计意见为非标准无保留意见转债一共 4 只，相比 2023 年的 11 只明显减少。当前 10 只转债最新信用评级被下调/评级展望为负面（2024 同 期为 21 只）。 当前转债整体潜在信用、退市风险或较 2024 年有所 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for companies such as China Nuclear Power, Funiu Co., and Huaneng Hydropower, while giving a "Cautious Recommendation" to companies like China General Nuclear Power and Longyuan Power [23][3]. Core Insights - The electricity sector outperformed the market this week, with the public utility sector rising by 2.22% and the electricity sub-sector by 2.21%, both exceeding the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index [1][7]. - Shandong Province has established a mechanism electricity price that aligns with the benchmark price for coal-fired power, which is expected to stabilize investment returns for renewable energy projects [2][24]. - The report highlights the significant drop in coal prices, which has led to steady growth in thermal power performance in Q1, with expectations for continued improvement as the peak electricity consumption season approaches [3][20]. Summary by Sections Weekly Market Review - The public utility sector index closed at 2,377.21 points, up 51.64 points, while the electricity sub-sector closed at 3,171.91 points, up 68.52 points [1][7]. - The sub-sectors showed varied performance, with solar power up 4.01%, thermal power up 4.00%, and wind power up 1.78% [12][19]. Special Topic - Shandong's new pricing mechanism for renewable energy projects is set at 0.3949 yuan per kWh, matching the coal-fired benchmark price, which is expected to mitigate revenue volatility for existing projects [2][24]. - The competitive bidding for new renewable projects starting from June 1, 2025, will determine the mechanism price, enhancing investment predictability [2][24]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong growth potential in the thermal and hydropower sectors, particularly Funiu Co., Gansu Energy, and Huaneng International [3][20]. - It also emphasizes the stability of large hydropower companies in a declining interest rate environment, recommending companies like Yangtze Power and Chuanwei Energy [3][20]. Key Company Earnings Forecasts - The report provides earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for several companies, with China Nuclear Power expected to have an EPS of 0.46 yuan in 2024, while Funiu Co. is projected at 1.07 yuan [23][3].

Group 1: Economic Outlook - The potential weakening of the economy is about to be validated, and expectations for policy implementation will take time to materialize[1] - A-shares and Hong Kong stocks have approached a "ceiling" since April 2, indicating a need for further evidence to support upward movement[1] - The average overseas revenue share of the top 10 performing secondary industries in A-shares since April 2 is 10%, while the bottom 10 is 8%, suggesting a need for positive trade signals or internal demand policies for further recovery[1] Group 2: Market Style Shift - The recent regulatory framework encourages a shift towards financial, stable, and large-cap stocks, as evidenced by the China Securities Regulatory Commission's new guidelines[2] - 60.8% of actively managed equity funds have underperformed their benchmarks by over 10% in the past three years, indicating a potential shift to benchmark alignment to avoid underperformance[2] Group 3: Consumer Sector Insights - The consumer sector's returns are derived from net profit growth, increased dividend payout ratios, and valuation improvements, with traditional consumer assets benefiting from stable business models[3] - Three key areas of focus in the consumer sector include product positioning, changing consumer demographics, and evolving consumption patterns[3] Group 4: Investment Recommendations - Recommended sectors include consumer industries with stable returns (e.g., home appliances, food and beverages, cosmetics) and undervalued financial sectors (e.g., banks, insurance)[4] - Resource and capital goods sectors (e.g., copper, aluminum, machinery) are expected to hold value in the context of global economic restructuring[4] Group 5: Risk Factors - Risks include domestic economic growth falling short of expectations, potential overseas economic recession, and measurement errors in data analysis[4]

Group 1 - The report indicates that the potential weakening of the economy is about to be validated, and expectations for policy implementation will take time to materialize. The recent recovery in global markets, driven by easing trade tensions, appears to be temporary, with asset volatility likely to increase again. Both A-shares and Hong Kong stocks have shown signs of hitting a "ceiling" as they approached levels from April 2, 2025, before retreating [1][9][12] - A-shares have seen a significant disparity in performance among secondary industries, with the top 10 gaining industries averaging 10% overseas revenue exposure, while the bottom 10 losing industries averaged 8%. This suggests that further recovery in A-shares may require either positive signals from trade improvements or new domestic demand policies [1][12][14] - The report highlights that the consumption sector has three sources of returns: net profit growth, increased dividend payout ratios, and valuation appreciation. Traditional consumer assets with stable business models and high ROE can benefit from a long-term mechanism aimed at expanding domestic demand [3][41][46] Group 2 - The report discusses a potential shift in market style towards financial stability and large-cap stocks, driven by the recent regulatory changes from the China Securities Regulatory Commission aimed at promoting high-quality development of public funds. This may lead fund managers to align their portfolios more closely with benchmarks to avoid underperformance [2][34][39] - The consumption sector's performance has been relatively flat, with a year-to-date increase of only 0.78%. This is attributed to reasonable valuations and a balance between profit share and market capitalization share, limiting the potential for significant short-term gains [3][41][42] - The report identifies specific consumer sub-sectors with high ROE (greater than 7%) that are likely to provide stable returns. These include white goods, automobiles, and communication services, which can benefit from both profit growth and increased dividend payout ratios [3][46]

固收周度点评 20250511 货币政策的增量信号 2025 年 05 月 11 日 [Table_Author] 分析师：谭逸鸣 研究助理：何楠飞 执业证号：S0100522030001 执业证号：S0100123070014 邮箱：tanyiming@mszq.com 邮箱：henanfei@mszq.com 5/8，债市全线走强，曲线牛陡。早盘降息落地，带动资金利率显著下行， 提振债市做多热情。日内股市走强对债市形成一定压制，涨幅一度收窄，但资金 利率的破位下行对债牛形成较强支撑。当日 1Y、5Y、10Y、30Y 国债收益率分别 变动-3.3、-1.5、-0.9、-1BP 至 1.41%、1.5%、1.63%、1.84%。 5/9，债市未能延续昨日涨势。资金仍延续平稳宽松态势，但或受止盈情绪 影响，叠加午后权益市场走强、关税博弈下 4 月出口增速环比回落但仍显韧性， 债市演绎调整行情。当日 1Y、5Y、10Y、30Y 国债收益率分别变动 0.4、-0.5、 0.2、0.5BP 至 1.42%、1.5%、1.64%、1.84%。 ➢ "双降"落地，曲线走陡 本周（5/6-5/9）债市震荡走强。5/7"双降 ...