债券 2026 年 01 月 16 日 公募 REITs 系列 商业不动产+基础设施，共塑 REITs 新格局 证券分析师 平安观点 债 券 报 告 债 券 动 态 跟 踪 报 告 证 券 研 究 报 告 刘璐 投资咨询资格编号 S1060519060001 liulu979@ pingan.com.cn 陈蔚宁 投资咨询资格编号 S1060524070001 chenweining369@ pingan.com.cn 2025 年 12 月 31 日，证监会、交易所推出一系列公募 REITs 管理办法（以下 简称"新规"），为 REITs 市场体系建设提供方向，并将商业不动产纳入监管体 系。自此，我国 REITs 市场进入"商业不动产+基础设施"并行发展的新阶段。 市场框架方面，供给端扩容扩围、提高审批效率，需求端推动中长期资金入市。 供给端，一是将商业不动产纳入公募 REITs 体系，形成 "商业不动产 + 基础 设施" 并行发展格局。二是放宽扩募限制，将再次购入资产的时间间隔从 12 个月缩至 6 个月，取消运营业绩限制性要求，市场有望通过扩募、合并等方式 出现一批"大而优"的龙头 REITs 产品。三 ...

Monetary Policy Measures - The central bank has introduced new monetary policy measures, including a 0.25 percentage point reduction in various structural monetary policy tool rates, expected to save banks approximately 13.5 billion yuan annually[5] - The re-lending and rediscounting for agricultural and small enterprises have been merged, increasing the quota by 500 billion yuan, with a dedicated 1 trillion yuan for private enterprises[7] - The minimum down payment ratio for commercial property loans has been lowered to 30% to support the real estate market[8] Exchange Rate Management - The central bank aims to stabilize the foreign exchange market in 2026, with a projected net inflow of 302.1 billion USD for the year, indicating a shift from net outflow[9] - Approximately 60% of import and export trade is minimally affected by exchange rate fluctuations, with 30% of foreign trade conducted in RMB[10] - The central bank emphasizes the importance of balanced import and export development and plans to enhance macro-prudential management to mitigate exchange rate risks[11] Financial Data Trends - As of December 2025, the total social financing stock grew by 8.3% year-on-year, while loan stock increased by 6.4%[15] - The growth rate of M2 rose to 8.5%, reflecting a 0.5 percentage point increase from the previous month[15] - Direct financing reached 16.7 trillion yuan in December 2025, accounting for 46.9% of total social financing, an increase of 7.8 percentage points compared to 2020[16]

Group 1 - The total number of fund advisory portfolios on the Tian Tian Fund APP reached 476 by the end of December 2025, an increase of 7 from the previous month, including new balanced, aggressive, and conservative portfolios, as well as thematic portfolios focused on technology and dividends [2][8] - The distribution of fund advisory portfolios includes 417 in the stock-bond central type, 38 in the track type, and 21 in the regional type, with stock-bond central type portfolios being the most dominant [8][12] - The performance of the stock-bond central type portfolios showed that the median return of aggressive portfolios outperformed similar FOF products over the past year, while balanced and conservative portfolios underperformed [18][19] Group 2 - The performance of track type portfolios indicated that all track portfolios had positive median returns over the past year, with military, smart manufacturing, medical, consumer, dividend, and central state-owned enterprise portfolios outperforming their benchmarks [25][29] - The regional type portfolios showed that the Hong Kong strategy portfolio outperformed its benchmark over the past year, while overseas strategy portfolios underperformed [25][29] - The aggressive type portfolio with the highest return since 2025 was "Anxin Jijin 90" from Guolian Securities, achieving a return of 52.50% [22][29] Group 3 - The tracking of fund positions revealed that the conservative portfolio reduced its allocation to index funds while increasing its allocation to QDII funds, with QDII fund average positions rising by 0.67% [34][37] - The balanced portfolio decreased its allocation to mixed funds and increased its allocation to index funds, with index fund average positions increasing by 1.58% [34][37] - The aggressive portfolio reduced its allocation to equity funds and increased its allocation to mixed funds, with mixed fund average positions rising by 0.68% [34][37] Group 4 - The most favored active equity funds by the advisory portfolios included those managed by Chen Yunzong (growth style), Lan Xiaokang (dividend strategy), and Wu Guoqing (cyclical theme), which saw significant increases in holdings [43][48] - The most favored QDII funds included "Southern Asian Dollar Bond A RMB" and "E Fund Global Quality Enterprise A," which received notable increases in allocations [44][48] - The most favored passive index funds included "Oriental Red CSI Oriental Red Dividend Low Volatility A" and "Southern CSI Shenwan Nonferrous Metals ETF," which were also significantly increased in holdings [49][50]

Export Performance - In December 2025, China's export value increased by 6.6% year-on-year, with a growth rate up by 0.7 percentage points from the previous month[1] - The trade surplus reached $114.14 billion, compared to $111.68 billion in the previous period[1] - Exports to ASEAN, India, and Russia showed significant growth, contributing a combined 2.1 percentage points to China's export increase[1] Import Performance - China's import value rose by 5.7% year-on-year, with an acceleration of 3.8 percentage points compared to the previous month[1] - The contribution of machinery and high-tech products to import growth was stable, with respective contributions of 2.0 and 2.7 percentage points[1] - The drag from raw materials and agricultural products on import growth decreased, with the impact from raw materials reducing by 0.4 percentage points[1] Regional Trade Dynamics - Exports to the US, EU, Latin America, and Africa showed a marginal decline, collectively dragging down exports by 0.9 percentage points[1] - The share of exports to the US, South Korea, and Russia decreased by 3.5, 0.3, and 0.5 percentage points respectively, while shares to ASEAN, Africa, Hong Kong, and the EU increased by 1.2, 1.0, 0.8, and 0.4 percentage points respectively[1] Product Contribution - Electromechanical and high-tech products remain the main drivers of export growth, while labor-intensive products continue to exert a drag, contributing negatively by 0.6 percentage points[1] - Key products like integrated circuits, automobiles, and ships showed strong performance, enhancing export contributions by 2.2 percentage points[1]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1][50]. Core Insights - The demand for AI infrastructure is expected to continue increasing due to the rapid growth in the size and token consumption of AI models. Major tech companies like NVIDIA are continuously empowering AI model and application development through product iterations, thus benefiting from the AI industry boom [3][48]. - The report highlights the launch of NVIDIA's Rubin platform, which features six new chips designed for AI supercomputers, significantly reducing inference costs and enhancing performance [4][30]. - AMD introduced the Helios rack, aimed at meeting the Yotta-level AI computing demands, showcasing a substantial increase in performance and efficiency [40][41]. Summary by Sections NVIDIA Developments - NVIDIA unveiled the complete Rubin platform at CES 2026, which includes six new chips that work in extreme synergy to lower inference costs significantly. The token cost for inference can be reduced to one-tenth of the previous Blackwell platform [2][4]. - The Rubin platform features innovations such as the NVIDIA Vera CPU and Rubin GPU, which enhance training time and reduce costs for large-scale AI models [4][16]. - NVIDIA also launched the Alpamayo series of open-source AI models for autonomous driving, which includes a model with 10 billion parameters designed for the assisted driving research community [30][31]. AMD Developments - AMD's Helios rack is designed to meet the increasing demand for AI computing, featuring a core computing tray powered by four new AMD hardware components, providing 2.9 exaflops of AI computing power [41][42]. - The MI455X GPU, part of the Helios platform, boasts a performance increase of 10 times compared to its predecessor, with 320 billion transistors and advanced cooling technology [43][44]. - AMD plans to release the next-generation MI500 product in 2027, which is expected to achieve a 1000-fold increase in AI performance over four years [46][47]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on AI themes for investment opportunities, highlighting companies in AI algorithms and applications, AI computing, and autonomous driving sectors [3][48]. - Specific strong buy recommendations include companies like 恒生电子, 中科创达, and 盛视科技, while also suggesting to monitor other firms in the AI space [3][48].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" [1][24]. Core Insights - The report highlights the significant breakthroughs in lightweight smart glasses and the emergence of "embodied intelligence" in robotic vacuum cleaners, showcasing the deep integration of AI with hardware at CES 2026 [2][4][5]. - AI is driving the upgrade of IoT across all scenarios, with strong support from chip manufacturers like Rockchip, Amlogic, and Tailing Micro, which are showcasing their capabilities in various fields [15][18]. - The report emphasizes the importance of AI in transforming smart hardware, suggesting that the integration of AI technology will enhance user experience and drive hardware upgrades [22]. Summary by Sections Smart Glasses and Robotic Vacuum Cleaners - The CES 2026 showcased lightweight smart glasses, with products like MoJie weighing only 25g and XGIMI at 28.9g, marking a significant reduction in weight through innovative optical technology and materials [6][10]. - The report notes that the application of smart glasses is expanding into various verticals such as professional translation, entertainment, outdoor sports, health maintenance, education, and industrial inspection, enhancing their competitive edge [8][9]. AI-Driven IoT and Chip Support - Rockchip presented a range of AI-driven IoT solutions, including consumer electronics and robotics, emphasizing the shift from passive to active service in hardware [15][18]. - Amlogic's focus on local computing and privacy-first solutions aims to enhance the performance of smart devices, with new chips like S905X5 and A311D2 set to launch in early 2026 [19][20]. - Tailing Micro's TL322X chip is designed to support high-end wireless gaming peripherals, showcasing advancements in wireless technology and low latency [21]. Investment Opportunities - The report suggests that investors should pay attention to the upgrade opportunities in smart hardware driven by AI, particularly in main control chips and semiconductor materials, as the demand for intelligent products continues to grow [22].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" [1][27]. Core Insights - The Hong Kong real estate market is expected to rebound in 2025, with both primary and secondary residential transactions reaching a four-year high, showing year-on-year growth of 21.5% and 16.9% respectively, leading to a total increase of 18.3% [3][7]. - The upward trend in property prices began in April 2025, with private residential prices increasing by 4.4% from the low in March 2025, and the leading index rising by 5.8% by January 2026 [3][8]. - Positive factors such as stable GDP growth, increased disposable income, and a recovering stock market are expected to enhance purchasing power and demand in 2026 [3][19]. - The concentration of market share among top developers is significant, with the top five developers holding a 46.8% market share in 2024, indicating strong performance potential during market upturns [3][21][24]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - In 2025, the total residential transaction volume reached 63,000 units, marking an 18% increase compared to 2022, with primary sales at 20,500 units and secondary sales at 42,000 units [4][7]. - The influx of mainland buyers is notable, with an estimated 13,800 units purchased by Mandarin-speaking buyers, accounting for 22% of total transactions [7]. Price Trends - Since Q2 2025, property prices have shown a steady upward trend, with the index rising by 8% from the low in March 2025 [8][19]. Rental Market - The rental market has also seen an upward trend, with rental indices increasing by 4.3% by November 2025, and the average rental yield reaching 2.88%, closely aligning with the ten-year government bond yield of 2.94% [11][12]. Supply Dynamics - The supply of new residential units has been contracting, with the number of pre-sale approvals declining by 20% by the end of 2025, creating a favorable environment for price increases [16][19]. Future Outlook - The outlook for 2026 remains positive, with expectations of continued demand recovery and manageable supply pressures, suggesting a sustained upward trend in both volume and prices [19][25].

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for Pop Mart (9992.HK) for the first time [1]. Core Views - Pop Mart is a leading cultural and entertainment company in China, focusing on IP incubation, consumer engagement, and the promotion of trendy toys [3]. - The company has established a comprehensive operational platform covering the entire trendy toy industry chain, leveraging its strong brand and designer partnerships [10]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Pop Mart was founded in 2010 and has developed a robust platform around five key areas: global artist discovery, IP incubation, consumer engagement, trendy toy culture promotion, and related industry investment integration [3][10]. - The company has signed renowned designers and collaborated with global brands to create popular trendy toy products, building a strong fan base [10][14]. Horizontal Performance: IP Leadership in the Trendy Toy Market - The Chinese IP derivative and toy market is expected to grow significantly, with the market size projected to increase from RMB 99.4 billion in 2020 to RMB 174.2 billion by 2024, representing a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 15.1% [5][17]. - Pop Mart holds a market share of 11.5% in the trendy toy sector, positioning itself as a benchmark enterprise with strong global layout and IP operation capabilities [23]. Vertical Performance: Channel Growth Driving Revenue - The company has diversified its sales channels both domestically and internationally, utilizing offline retail stores, online platforms, and wholesale channels [35]. - In 2024, Pop Mart's revenue is expected to reach RMB 13.04 billion, a year-on-year increase of 106.9%, with a gross margin of 66.8% [35][58]. - The company has seen significant growth in its online sales, particularly through its blind box machines and e-commerce platforms like Douyin and Tmall [37][41]. Investment Recommendations - The report forecasts that Pop Mart's overall revenue will reach RMB 33.83 billion, RMB 47.92 billion, and RMB 61.83 billion in 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with growth rates of 159.5%, 41.7%, and 29.0% [54][58]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be RMB 7.95 billion, RMB 10.81 billion, and RMB 13.82 billion for the same years, reflecting year-on-year growth of 154.2%, 36.0%, and 27.9% [54][58].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry [2] Core Insights - The space photovoltaic sector is gaining attention as leading companies increase investment in perovskite solar cell research and industrialization, which is expected to open new application scenarios for photovoltaics [6][7] - The deep-sea wind power project in Shandong has received approval, marking significant progress in the development of offshore wind energy, with expectations for substantial growth in this sector [6][11] - The energy storage and hydrogen sectors are seeing regulatory efforts to standardize competition, aiming to improve market order and sustainability [7] Summary by Sections Wind Power - The Shandong deep-sea wind power project has been approved, with a total capacity of 3000MW, utilizing 214 wind turbines of 14MW each [11] - The wind power index increased by 10.39%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 7.60 percentage points, with a current PE_TTM of approximately 27.30 times [12] - The approval of the project indicates a significant advancement in offshore wind energy, supported by technological maturity and favorable policies [11] Photovoltaics - The space photovoltaic concept is gaining traction, with companies focusing on perovskite solar cells due to their lightweight and high-efficiency characteristics, which are suitable for space applications [6] - The photovoltaic equipment index rose by 3.86%, with the solar cell component index increasing by 5.82% [5] - The current PE_TTM for the photovoltaic sector is around 47.28 times, indicating strong market interest [5] Energy Storage & Hydrogen - A meeting held by various government bodies highlighted the rapid development of the energy storage and hydrogen battery industries, emphasizing the need for regulatory measures to curb irrational competition [7] - The energy storage index increased by 5.74%, with a current PE_TTM of 31.06 times, reflecting a healthy market outlook [5] - Recommendations for investment include companies with strong competitive positions in energy storage and distributed energy sectors [7]

Core Views - The overseas market is influenced by geopolitical disturbances driving commodity prices up, while US stocks rise due to favorable technology catalysts and easing economic concerns. The MSCI global index increased by 1.49%, with most regional indices rising, led by South Korea. The S&P 500, Nasdaq, Dow Jones, and Russell 2000 rose by 1.6%, 1.9%, 2.3%, and 4.6% respectively. The 10-year and 2-year US Treasury yields changed by -1bp and 7bp to 4.18% and 3.54% respectively. The US dollar index rose by 0.69% to 99.14, while COMEX gold, silver, and ICE Brent crude oil increased by 4.07%, 10.41%, and 3.65% respectively [2][19][22]. Macro Overview - The US PMI shows continued divergence, with no further deterioration in the labor market. The ISM manufacturing PMI for December recorded 47.9%, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous value, indicating manufacturing contraction. The services PMI rose to 54.4%, up 1.8 percentage points, driven by strong holiday demand. Non-farm payrolls for December added 50,000 jobs, below expectations, while the unemployment rate fell by 0.1 percentage points to 4.4% [2][3][4]. Policy Insights - The US is increasing control over Venezuelan oil, with Trump announcing that Venezuela will transfer 30 to 50 million barrels of sanctioned high-quality oil to the US, which will be sold at market prices. Trump also indicated he has decided on a new Federal Reserve chairperson, with an announcement expected soon. The Supreme Court has yet to release a ruling on Trump's tariffs, with the next key date being January 14 [2][7]. Market Dynamics - The US stock market is supported by the CES technology conference and improved employment data, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq showing significant gains. The S&P 500 index's PE ratio is at 29.75, above the historical average, indicating high valuation levels. The index's price-to-earnings ratio relative to the 10-year Treasury yield is 0.82, also above the historical average [23][28][29]. Sector Performance - In the S&P 500, all sectors except utilities saw gains, with consumer discretionary, materials, and industrials leading the way. Notable concept indices such as OLED, 3D printing, and lithium batteries performed well, with increases of 11.5%, 10.1%, and 8.8% respectively [33][29]. Hong Kong Market - The Hong Kong stock market showed a mixed performance, with the Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Technology Index declining by 0.4% and 0.9% respectively. The healthcare sector led gains due to favorable policies, while the overall market remains volatile amid changing expectations for interest rate cuts [38][43].