其 他 报 告 2025年06月12日 晨会纪要 | 国内市场 | | 涨跌幅（%） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 指数 | 收盘 | 1日 | 上周 | | 上证综合指数 | 3402 | 0.52 | 1.13 | | 深证成份指数 | 10246 | 0.83 | 1.42 | | 沪深300指数 | 3895 | 0.75 | 0.88 | | 创业板指数 | 2062 | 1.21 | 2.32 | | 上证国债指数 | 225 | 0.01 | 0.08 | | 上证基金指数 | 6920 | 0.09 | 0.17 | | | | 资料来源:同花顺iFinD | | 今日重点推荐： 【平安证券】基金深度报告*量化行业比较系列报告之二：基于资 本开支周期的行业比较与轮动策略*20250611 研究分析师 : 任书康 投资咨询资格编号 : S1060525050001 研究分析师 : 郭子睿 投资咨询资格编号 : S1060520070003 研究分析师 : 陈瑶 投资咨询资格编号 : S1060524120003 研究助理 : 高越 一般证券从业资格编号 : S1 ...

Group 1: Capital Expenditure Cycle Analysis - The capital expenditure (CAPEX) cycle is a dominant driver of industry cycles in China, influencing the relationship between CAPEX, price-to-book (PB) ratio, and return on equity (ROE) [4] - The CAPEX cycle is divided into three stages: Stage 1 (oversupply leads to declining ROE and poor market performance), Stage 2 (declining CAPEX results in rising free cash flow and market rebound), and Stage 3 (supply-side clearing leads to improved ROE and better market performance) [4][14][15] - The PB-ROE model indicates significant investment value in Stage 2 (low PB and improving ROE) and Stage 3 (reasonable PB and steadily rising ROE) [16] Group 2: Market and Industry Comparisons - In Q4 2024 and Q1 2025, the overall capital expenditure of A-share companies (excluding finance and real estate) is contracting, while free cash flow is improving [20] - The median CAPEX/depreciation ratio for secondary industries decreased from 1.35 to 1.29, while the median free cash flow/equity ratio increased from 4.4% to 4.8% [21] - The proportion of secondary industries with free cash flow greater than 0 has significantly increased, indicating a positive trend in cash flow [21][24] Group 3: Sector-Specific Insights - The consumer sector shows overall CAPEX contraction and slight decline in free cash flow, with CAPEX levels below market averages and free cash flow above market averages [26] - The advanced manufacturing sector also experiences CAPEX contraction, while free cash flow shows slight improvement [4][26] - Eight industries within the consumer sector are highlighted as potential investment opportunities based on supply-side improvements [4][26]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not mention the industry investment rating [1] Core Viewpoints - Overseas uncertainties have marginally eased, and the domestic bond market yield curve has steepened. The launch of policy - based financial tools may impact the bond market, and in the current situation of balanced and loose liquidity and narrow - range bond market fluctuations, attention should be paid to factors that may break the balance of long - and short - term forces and some structural opportunities [2][3][4] Summary by Directory PART1: Overseas Uncertainties Marginally Eased, Domestic Yield Curve Steepened 1.1 Overseas - Policy uncertainties have marginally eased, and market risk appetite has recovered. In May, the US made partial progress in trade negotiations, risk assets outperformed safe - haven assets, the US dollar index stopped falling but was weak, and the market focus shifted to fiscal and tax policies. The Trump tax - cut bill passed in the House, which may increase a deficit of $2.3 - 3 trillion in the next decade, and Moody's downgraded the US sovereign credit rating, causing the 30Y US Treasury yield to exceed 5%. Japanese and European long - term bond yields generally rose, with Japanese bond yields rising due to concerns about fiscal sustainability, and the eurozone pricing in fiscal leverage and risk - appetite recovery [7][10][13] 1.2 Domestic - The asset performance was stable, with the equity market rising first and then moving sideways, and the commodity market fluctuating at a low level. In May, the central bank cut interest rates and the reserve - requirement ratio, the liquidity was loose, and the yield curve steepened. Credit bonds outperformed interest - rate bonds, with credit spreads narrowing by 7 - 19BP. In terms of institutional behavior, the bond - market leverage ratio was stable at a low level. Large banks' bond - buying scale may have increased, rural commercial banks actively bet on duration, funds reduced duration and positions and shifted to credit bonds, insurance companies' bond - allocation rhythm returned to normal, and wealth management products' liabilities became abundant again and continued to overweight inter - bank certificates of deposit [15][22][28] PART2: Policy - based Financial Tools Review 2.1 Politburo Meeting Mentioned "Establishing New Policy - based Financial Tools" - In April 2025, the Politburo meeting mentioned "establishing new policy - based financial tools". Historically, there were two rounds of policy - based tools led by policy banks: the 2 - trillion special construction funds from 2015 - 2017 and the policy - based and development financial tools in 2022. Both used policy - bank - established funds as project capital with fiscal subsidies to boost infrastructure investment [44] 2.2 Policy - based Tools' Effects and Bond - Market Pricing - Both rounds of policy - based tools were accompanied by a package of policies, supporting specific areas of investment. The 2015 - 2017 tools mainly supported the shantytown renovation and real - estate investment, while the 2022 tools mainly supported transportation infrastructure and infrastructure investment. In the bond market, short - term pricing was based on policy expectations, with the 10Y Treasury yield rising by 2 - 7BP within 3 trading days after policy announcements. Medium - term pricing depended on the rhythm of policy announcements and fundamental data improvement, with the 10Y Treasury yield rising by 18 - 30BP over 2 - 5 months [3][46][48] PART3: Bond - Market Strategy 3.1 Since April, the Bond - Market Trading Mainline Entered a Sideways State after Several Switches - Since April, the bond - market trading mainline has entered a state of balanced long - and short - term forces after several switches, and the 10Y Treasury yield has been fluctuating around 1.67% [53] 3.2 Mid - term Impact of Deposit - Rate Cuts - On May 20, large banks initiated a new round of deposit - rate cuts. Since 2024, deposit - rate cuts have effectively reduced deposit costs, with different impacts on large and small banks [57] 3.3 Mid - term Impact and Market Structure - Deposit - rate cuts may have two structural impacts: if the central bank does not cooperate, the flow of large - bank deposits to non - banks or small banks may tighten liquidity; in the medium term, small banks and non - banks have abundant funds, which support the bond market. However, trading funds are scattered among different assets, making it difficult to form a unified force [61][64] 3.4 Central Bank's Concerns - The probability of further decline or increase in the funding rate is low. Recently, external pressure has eased, the net - interest - margin pressure has decreased, capital - market prices have basically recovered, and the risk of capital idling is controllable [70] 3.5 Cost - effective Structural Points - The 10Y Treasury yield is still fluctuating around 1.65 - 1.70%, and positions can be established at the upper limit of the range. Factors that may drive the yield curve down include deposit - rate cuts, slow adjustment following fundamental data announcements, and the central bank's restart of Treasury trading. Possible resistances are the flat yield curve and the non - implementation of "new policy - based financial tools". Currently, cost - effective structural points include medium - and long - term credit bonds, 1 - 5Y Treasuries, 7Y Agricultural Development Bank bonds, and 15Y local bonds [75]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the power equipment and new energy sector [1]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights strong performance in emerging markets, with a recovery in Q1 earnings for household storage companies. Key players in the household storage and string inverter segments have similar business compositions, including photovoltaic inverters, energy storage inverters, and energy storage batteries. The report analyzes five representative companies: DeYee, Jinlang Technology, GoodWe, Shouhang Energy, and Airo Energy, noting that DeYee and Jinlang Technology achieved revenue growth in 2024 due to increased demand in emerging markets [2][8]. Summary by Sections 1. Household Storage Companies' Fundamentals - Emerging markets show robust growth, with Q1 performance rebounding. DeYee and Jinlang Technology reported positive revenue growth in 2024, driven by demand in Asia. DeYee leads in the emerging market household storage sector, achieving a 65% increase in net profit. In contrast, companies focused on the European market experienced revenue declines due to slowing demand [2][6][12]. 2. Business Layout - The five companies have varying focuses within the energy storage sector, with DeYee and Airo Energy emphasizing energy storage, while Jinlang Technology and GoodWe focus more on photovoltaic string inverters. The report notes that energy storage products have higher and more stable gross margins compared to photovoltaic inverters, indicating less price competition in the household storage segment [2][19][25]. 3. Regional Layout - The report identifies promising demand in emerging markets and significant potential in the European commercial storage sector. The distributed photovoltaic storage market is expanding globally, with emerging markets in Asia, Africa, and Latin America showing rapid growth since early 2024. DeYee has a broad market presence, while Jinlang Technology and GoodWe are expanding their overseas operations [2][49][50]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a positive outlook for household storage and commercial storage markets in emerging regions and Europe. It recommends focusing on DeYee for its strong market position and effective channel development, while also suggesting attention to Airo Energy and Jinlang Technology for their strong profitability and growth potential in emerging markets [2][48].

汽车 比较研究系列 以长板优势推进品牌进阶，智驾强监管筑牢安全底座 强于大市（维持） 行情走势图 证券分析师 王德安 投资咨询资格编号 S1060511010006 BQV509 WANGDEAN002@pingan.com.cn 王跟海 投资咨询资格编号 S1060523080001 BVG944 WANGGENHAI964@pingan.com.cn 平安观点： 行 业 报 告 行 业 深 度 报 告 证 券 研 究 报 告 请通过合法途径获取本公司研究报告，如经由未经许可的渠道获得研究报告，请慎重使用并注意阅读研究报告尾页的声明内容。 2025 年 06 月 11 日 发挥长板以实现品牌进阶。当前车企的高端化策略大致分为两类：一是具 有明显长板的车企深耕自身优势领域，并持续扩大领先，产品策略以及技 术路线不盲从，典型代表理想汽车、长城汽车、小米汽车。理想 MEGA 坚持品牌旗舰定位，通过推出家庭特别版将家庭用户体验发挥得更加极 致；长城汽车深耕越野品类，推出大功率发动机，高端化突破方式不走寻 常路；小米汽车推出 SU7 Ultra，进一步强化用户对 SU7 的运动属性认知； 二是对标思路，2025 年上 ...

公 司 报 告 电子 海光信息(688041.SH) 海光信息吸收合并中科曙光，实现算力产业链闭环布局 推荐 ( 维持) 股价:141.98元 主要数据 | 行业 | 电子 | | --- | --- | | 公司网址 | www.hygon.cn | | 大股东/持股 | 曙光信息产业股份有限公司/27.96% | | 实际控制人 | | | 总股本(百万股) | 2,324 | | 流通A股(百万股) | 887 | | 流通B/H股(百万股) | | | 总市值(亿元) | 3,300 | | 流通A股市值(亿元) | 1,259 | | 每股净资产(元) | 8.94 | | 资产负债率(%) | 24.6 | 行情走势图 证券分析师 事项： 海光信息&中科曙光发布公告，海光信息将换股吸收合并中科曙光，并募集配 套资金。 平安观点： 证 券 研 究 报 告 | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 6,012 | 9,162 | 13,757 | 19, ...

其 他 报 告 2025年06月11日 晨会纪要 | 国内市场 | | 涨跌幅（%） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 指数 | 收盘 | 1日 | 上周 | | 上证综合指数 | 3385 | -0.44 | 1.13 | | 深证成份指数 | 10162 | -0.86 | 1.42 | | 沪深300指数 | 3865 | -0.51 | 0.88 | | 创业板指数 | 2037 | -1.17 | 2.32 | | 上证国债指数 | 225 | 0.07 | 0.08 | | 上证基金指数 | 6914 | -0.08 | 0.17 | | | | 资料来源:同花顺iFinD | | | 海外市场 | | 涨跌幅（%） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 指数 | 收盘 | 1日 | 上周 | | 中国香港恒生指数 | 24163 | -0.08 | 2.16 | | 中国香港国企指数 | 8767 | -0.15 | 2.34 | | 中国台湾加权指数 | 22242 | 2.07 | 1.47 | | 道琼斯指数 | 42762 | 0. ...

行情走势图 证券分析师 房地产 2025 年 06 月 10 日 贝壳-W(2423.HK) 经纪为核根基深厚，三翼齐飞行以致远 推荐（首次） 股价：49.55 港元 主要数据 | 行业 | 房地产 | | --- | --- | | 公司网址 | inv estors.ke.com | | 大股东/持股 | Propitious Global/23.4% | | 实际控制人 | 创始人团队 | | 总股本(百万股) | 3602.16 | | 流通 A 股(百万股) | 0 | | 流通 B/H 股(百万股) | 3458.90 | | 总市值（亿港元） | 1784.87 | | 流通 A 股市值(亿元) | 0 | | 每股净资产(元) | 19.01 | | 资产负债率(%) | 47.21 | | 杨侃 | 投资咨询资格编号 | | --- | --- | | | S1060514080002 | | | BQV514 | | | YANGKAN034@pingan.com.cn | | 郑茜文 | 投资咨询资格编号 | | | S1060520090003 | | | ZHENGXIWEN239@ ...

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, Beike-W (2423.HK), with a current stock price of HKD 49.55 [1]. Core Views - Beike is a leading integrated online and offline real estate transaction service platform, with a strong foundation in real estate brokerage and a strategic focus on three wings: home decoration, rental services, and Beihome [6][11]. - The company is expected to achieve a total transaction volume of CNY 3.3 trillion in 2024, with net revenue reaching CNY 934.6 billion, marking a historical high [6][21]. - The company emphasizes shareholder returns, with a significant cash reserve and a share buyback plan in place [28]. Summary by Sections 1. Leading Integrated Real Estate Transaction and Service Platform - Beike began operations in 2001 and has expanded its services to include second-hand and new home transactions, home decoration, and rental services [11]. - The company has established a "one body, three wings" strategy, with a projected total transaction volume of CNY 3.3 trillion in 2024 [6][11]. 2. Real Estate Brokerage: Strong Leadership and Operational Advantages - Beike holds a dominant position in the real estate brokerage industry, with a total transaction volume of CNY 3.3 trillion in 2024, significantly ahead of competitors [51]. - The company has implemented the "True Source" standard and the ACN network, enhancing service quality and operational efficiency [54]. 3. Three Wings Business: Home Decoration, Rental, and Beihome Potential - The home decoration segment is rapidly growing, with a projected transaction volume of CNY 169 billion in 2024, reflecting a CAGR of 329.7% from 2021 to 2024 [6]. - The rental business has expanded significantly, with managed properties increasing from 70,000 in 2022 to 420,000 in 2024 [6]. 4. Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The report forecasts EPS of CNY 1.58, CNY 1.83, and CNY 2.11 for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 28.7, 24.8, and 21.5 [7]. - The company is expected to maintain a stable commission rate in the new home market, while the second-hand home commission rate may face pressure [6].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "stronger than the market," indicating an expected performance that exceeds the market by more than 5% over the next six months [30]. Core Insights - The UK government has introduced the Pension Schemes Bill, which aims to enhance the efficiency of the pension system through various reforms, including the establishment of "mega funds" and the automatic consolidation of small pension accounts [6][7][8]. - Yale University is planning to sell up to $2.5 billion in private equity assets as part of its "Project Gatsby," marking a significant move in the secondary market and aimed at optimizing asset structure and releasing liquidity [2][9][12]. Summary by Sections UK Pension Schemes Bill - The Pension Schemes Bill includes five key reforms aimed at improving pension management and value for money for members. These reforms include the creation of a framework for merging pension plans into "mega funds" with a minimum size of £25 billion by 2030, and the automatic consolidation of dormant small accounts [6][7][8]. - The bill also emphasizes the integration of local government pension schemes into regional investment pools to enhance local investment in infrastructure and clean energy [7][8]. Yale University's Asset Sale - Yale's asset sale, which is the largest secondary market transaction of the year, is driven by the need to restructure its $41 billion endowment fund in response to potential tax increases on private university endowment earnings [2][9][11]. - The sale involves a "mosaic deal" structure, allowing buyers to select specific fund interests from a pool of assets, reflecting Yale's proactive approach to asset management amid changing tax policies [11][12]. Global Pension Dynamics - The report highlights various global pension dynamics, including Norway's GPFG developing tools to reduce trading costs in fixed income markets, and Kuwait's sovereign fund joining a $30 billion AI infrastructure investment initiative led by BlackRock [5][13][14]. - Malaysia's EPF reported a decline in investment income to approximately $4.3 billion in Q1 2025, attributed to global market volatility [15]. Domestic Pension Developments - In China, the expansion of personal pension financial products has increased the total number to 35, with a focus on enhancing long-term returns for investors [19][20]. - The "Pension Financial Health Index" report indicates that Chinese households are in an accumulation phase regarding pension planning, with a score of 48.56, suggesting a growing awareness of retirement financial planning [21][22].