证券研究报告 【另类资产观察】REITs供给加速， 权益回调为可转债提供加仓窗口 证券分析师 刘璐 投资咨询资格编号：S1060519060001 陈蔚宁 投资咨询资格编号：S1060524070001 2025年3月30日 2025年第6期总第121期 请务必阅读正文后免责条款 本周核心观点 市场回顾 REITs跑赢股票、债券。本期（3.14-3.28,以下同） REITs指数涨跌幅为2.35%，各指数涨跌幅表现：REITs>红利股>债券>可转债>沪深300。中 信建投明阳智能新能源REIT、华泰紫金南京建邺产业园REIT、华夏首创奥特莱斯REIT表现最好，涨跌幅分别为10.45%、9.65%、8.57%。 权益普跌，可转债下跌1.57%。本期权益释放调整压力，风格上大盘、价值相对抗跌，小盘、成长大幅调整，板块上，TMT股指大跌7%。可转债 下跌1.57%，考虑到Wind可转债正股等权指数仅下跌1.63%，本期可转债的跌幅较深。这主要是因为对正股下跌最为敏感的高价转债中，TMT、新 兴周期板块的余额占比较高。而这些板块本期正股大幅下跌，高价转债也随之下调，尤其是转债价格超过150元的转债，转债跌幅不弱于正股 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the company [1][13]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 1.768 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 41.37%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 179 million yuan, a significant increase of 491.56% year-on-year [4][8]. - The company is positioned as a leader in the mass supply of 8-inch conductive substrates, with a focus on high-quality silicon carbide substrates, and is one of the few global players capable of mass-producing 8-inch silicon carbide substrates [9][8]. - The report anticipates continued strong demand for silicon carbide substrates in downstream applications, particularly in the electric vehicle, photovoltaic, energy storage, and AI sectors [8][9]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported a revenue of 1.768 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 25.9% and a net margin of 10.1% [8][11]. - The projected revenues for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 2.431 billion yuan, 3.286 billion yuan, and 4.124 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 266 million yuan, 440 million yuan, and 628 million yuan [6][10]. Market Position - The company has established partnerships with over half of the top ten power semiconductor manufacturers globally and is actively expanding its market presence [9][8]. - The production capacity for silicon carbide substrates is expected to increase significantly, with a projected output of 410,200 pieces in 2024, marking a 56.56% increase from 2023 [9][10]. Future Outlook - The report adjusts profit expectations for 2025-2027, forecasting net profits of 266 million yuan, 440 million yuan, and 628 million yuan, respectively, with EPS of 0.62 yuan, 1.02 yuan, and 1.46 yuan [9][10]. - The company is expected to maintain a leading position in the silicon carbide substrate market, driven by ongoing demand and technological advancements [9][8].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Recommended (Maintain)" [1] Core Views - The company reported a significant increase in revenue and net profit for 2024, with operating income reaching 10.158 billion yuan (up 42.33% year-on-year) and net profit attributable to shareholders at 651 million yuan (up 40.13% year-on-year) [4] - The automotive electronics business has shown rapid growth, achieving revenue of 7.603 billion yuan (up 57.55% year-on-year) in 2024, with a gross margin of 19.2% [7] - The company has expanded its customer base significantly, with major clients including Geely, Chery, and SAIC, and has made inroads with international clients such as Volkswagen Group and Stellantis [7] Financial Summary - For 2024, the company achieved operating income of 10.158 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 42.3% [6] - The net profit for 2024 was 651 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 40.1% [6] - The gross margin for 2024 was reported at 20.7%, with a net margin of 6.4% [6] - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is projected to increase from 10.1% in 2025 to 14.9% by 2027 [6] Profit Forecast and Investment Suggestions - The company is expected to maintain strong growth in net profit, with projections of 870 million yuan for 2025 and 1.1 billion yuan for 2026, and a new forecast of 1.34 billion yuan for 2027 [8] - The company continues to receive a substantial number of new orders, particularly for competitive products like HUD and wireless charging [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 7.52 billion yuan in 2024, a slight decrease of 1.86% year-on-year, with a net profit of 197 million yuan, down 0.49% year-on-year [4][9] - The company is focusing on upgrading its product and service capabilities towards AI, launching self-developed security models and enhancing its cloud computing offerings [10] - The cloud computing segment is becoming a new growth driver, with revenue from this segment increasing by 9.51% year-on-year to 3.384 billion yuan in 2024 [9][10] - The company has a strong market position in the hyper-converged infrastructure market, holding a 17.5% market share in China [10] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue and Profitability: - 2024 revenue: 75.20 billion yuan, down 1.86% YoY - 2024 net profit: 1.97 billion yuan, down 0.49% YoY - Expected revenue growth: 15.4% in 2025, 16.6% in 2026, and 17.0% in 2027 [8][12] - Margins: - Gross margin in 2024: 61.5%, down 3.7 percentage points YoY - Net margin in 2024: 2.6% [9][12] - Earnings Per Share (EPS): - 2024 EPS: 0.47 yuan - Expected EPS: 0.97 yuan in 2025, 1.25 yuan in 2026, and 1.65 yuan in 2027 [8][12] Business Segment Performance - Network Security: - Revenue: 3.629 billion yuan, down 6.75% YoY, accounting for 48.3% of total revenue [9] - Cloud Computing and IT Infrastructure: - Revenue: 3.384 billion yuan, up 9.51% YoY, accounting for 45.0% of total revenue [9] - Basic Network and IoT: - Revenue: 506 million yuan, down 25.53% YoY, accounting for 6.7% of total revenue [9] Market Position and Strategy - The company is recognized as a leading ICT provider in China, particularly in the network security sector [10] - The company is actively expanding its overseas market presence, achieving a 39.1% year-on-year revenue growth in international markets [9][10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for Huayang Group, indicating an expectation of strong performance in the next six months [10]. Core Views - The automotive electronics business of Huayang Group has shown rapid growth, with a revenue increase of 57.55% year-on-year, reaching 76.03 billion yuan in 2024. The gross margin for this segment is reported at 19.2% [7]. - The company achieved a total revenue of 101.58 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 42.33%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 6.51 billion yuan, up 40.13% from the previous year [4][6]. - The customer base is expanding, with significant revenue growth from major clients such as Geely, Chery, and others, and new projects with international car manufacturers [7]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, Huayang Group's revenue reached 101.58 billion yuan, with a net profit of 6.51 billion yuan, marking a 42.33% and 40.13% increase year-on-year, respectively [4][6]. - The company forecasts continued revenue growth, projecting 12.03 billion yuan in 2025 and 14.95 billion yuan in 2026, with net profits expected to reach 8.66 billion yuan and 10.97 billion yuan in the same years [6][8]. Business Segments - The automotive electronics segment is a key growth driver, with significant sales increases in products like HUD and wireless charging systems, leading to a substantial rise in profitability [7]. - The precision die-casting business also maintained stable profitability, contributing to the overall net profit increase [7]. Market Position - Huayang Group has achieved a leading market share in several automotive electronic products, including HUD and wireless charging, with over 1 million HUD units shipped in 2024 [7]. - The company has diversified its client base, securing new orders from both domestic and international automotive manufacturers, enhancing its competitive position in the market [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the company [1][7]. Core Views - The company is expected to benefit from the release of high-quality residential demand, with a projected revenue of 1429.9 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 6.4%. However, the net profit is forecasted to decline by 4.6% to 48 billion yuan [3][6]. - The company has a healthy land reserve structure and is actively expanding its land acquisition, ranking first among the top 50 real estate companies in terms of land acquisition sales amount and area in 2024 [6][7]. - The company has maintained a stable dividend payout, with a dividend of 1.2 HKD per share, resulting in a dividend rate of 52% based on net profit after deducting perpetual bond interest [6][7]. Financial Summary - Revenue and Profit Forecast: - 2024 Revenue: 1429.9 billion yuan, up 6.4% YoY - 2024 Net Profit: 48 billion yuan, down 4.6% YoY - Projected revenue growth rates for 2025-2027 are 5.8%, 5.2%, and 4.7% respectively [5][11]. - Profitability Metrics: - Gross Margin: 13.3% in 2024, up 2.2 percentage points YoY - Net Margin: 4.5% in 2024 - Return on Equity (ROE): 12.8% in 2024, declining gradually to 10.1% by 2027 [5][11]. - Valuation Ratios: - Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to be 6.3 for 2024, decreasing to 5.9 by 2027 - Price-to-Book (P/B) ratio is expected to decline from 0.8 in 2024 to 0.6 in 2027 [5][11]. Operational Insights - The company has a total land reserve value of 2210 billion yuan, with approximately 80% of the projects acquired since 2022 [6][7]. - The company is focusing on enhancing its core product offerings, particularly in competitive markets like Hangzhou, where it has established several benchmark projects [6][7].

公 司 报 告 房地产 2025年03月29日 新城控股(601155.SH) 利润小幅增长，商业向好发展 推荐 ( 维持) 股价:13.06元 行情走势图 相关研究报告 【平安证券】新城控股（601155.SH）*季报点评*毛 利率同比改善，商业运营持续向好*推荐20241031 证券分析师 杨侃 投资咨询资格编号 S1060514080002 BQV514 事项： 公司公布2024年年报，全年实现营业收入890亿元，同比下降25.3%，归母净 利润7.5亿元，同比增长2.1%，拟不派发现金红利，不送红股，不以公积金转 增股本。 平安观点： 司 年 报 点 评 研 究 报 告 YANGKAN034@pingan.com.cn 郑茜文 投资咨询资格编号 S1060520090003 ZHENGXIWEN239@pingan.com.cn 证 券 主要数据 行业 房地产 公司网址 www.seazen.com.cn 大股东/持股 富域发展集团有限公司/61.09% 实际控制人 王振华 总股本(百万股) 2,256 流通A股(百万股) 2,256 流通B/H股(百万股) 总市值(亿元) 295 流通A股市值(亿元 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [1][3] Core Views - The company has experienced strong growth driven by robust demand in AI and high-speed communication sectors, with 2024 revenue reaching 13.34 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 49.3%, and a net profit of 2.59 billion yuan, up 71.1% [3][8] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 5 yuan per 10 shares [3] Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue and Profit Growth**: - 2024 revenue: 13.34 billion yuan, up 49.3% YoY - 2024 net profit: 2.59 billion yuan, up 71.1% YoY - PCB business revenue: 12.84 billion yuan, up 49.78% YoY [3][8] - **Profitability Metrics**: - Gross margin for 2024: 34.5%, an increase of 3.37 percentage points YoY - Net margin for 2024: 19.4%, an increase of 2.58 percentage points YoY [8][11] - **Future Projections**: - Expected EPS for 2025-2027: 1.84 yuan, 2.29 yuan, and 2.64 yuan respectively - Corresponding P/E ratios for 2025-2027: 17.7, 14.2, and 12.3 [9][11] Business Segment Performance - **Enterprise Communication Market**: - Revenue for 2024: 10.09 billion yuan, up 71.94% YoY - AI server and HPC-related PCB products account for 29.48% of revenue, while high-speed network products account for 38.56% [8][9] - **Automotive PCB Business**: - Revenue for 2024: 2.41 billion yuan, up 11.6% YoY - Emerging automotive products have increased their revenue share from 25.96% in 2023 to 37.68% in 2024 [9][10] Financial Ratios - **Profitability Ratios**: - 2024 gross margin: 34.5% - 2024 net margin: 19.4% - 2024 ROE: 21.9% [11] - **Debt Ratios**: - 2024 asset-liability ratio: 43.8% - 2024 net debt ratio: 11.9% [11] Market Outlook - The company is well-positioned to benefit from ongoing demand in AI, high-speed communication, and automotive electronics, with expectations for continued revenue growth and margin improvement [8][9]

Group 1 - In the first quarter, domestic funding tightened and risk appetite improved, leading to a bear flattening of the yield curve. The equity market's risk appetite was significantly boosted by the DEEPSEEK technology breakthrough, which suppressed bond prices. Due to unexpected bond supply and restrained central bank liquidity injections, the funding environment remained tight, resulting in a rapid adjustment in the bond market, with the 10-year government bond yield gradually peaking at 1.9% [2][11][17] - The new economy is breaking through while the old economy is showing signs of recovery. In 2025, a moderate fiscal stimulus is expected, lower than in 2015, 2020, and 2022, requiring substantial monetary policy support to sustain the recovery trend. The leading indicator M1 may see a two-year compound growth rate reaching nominal GDP growth, indicating moderate recovery momentum. The GDP growth rate for the first quarter is expected to be between 5.1% and 5.3%, supported by fiscal stimulus and credit growth [2][41][76] - The bond market is expected to see a resonance of risk appetite switching and a warming funding environment in the second quarter. The central bank's focus this year is on technology and structural policies, while also considering broad asset prices in macro-prudential assessments. The monetary policy may adopt less transparent tools, with actual strength following the realities of the economy [2][3][82] Group 2 - In 2025, the broad fiscal deficit rate is expected to increase by nearly 2% compared to 2024, with the budget deficit rate rising from 3% to 4%. The total government bond supply is projected to reach 13.86 trillion yuan, with a significant increase in special bonds and long-term special bonds [42][43][45] - The fiscal impulse for 2025 is estimated at 2.4%, slightly lower than in 2022. The actual pulse magnitude, excluding replacement bonds, is 2.1%, which is less than the impulses seen in 2015, 2020, and 2022 [45][46][52] - The DEEPSEEK technology breakthrough is expected to drive an incremental investment of approximately 3,000 to 6,000 billion yuan in 2025, with Alibaba planning to invest over 380 billion yuan in cloud and AI infrastructure over the next three years [70][73] Group 3 - The real estate sector is still in the early stages of recovery, with new home sales slowing down and prices continuing to decline. The supply-demand imbalance persists, with expectations for real estate investment to contract in 2025, likely at a lower scale than in 2024 [60][68][74] - The first quarter's supply-demand indicators are expected to show growth rates lower than those of the same period in 2024, indicating a continuation of the oversupply situation. The core economic indicators for 2025 are projected to be weaker than those of 2024 [74][76] - The technology sector is anticipated to lead the market, with expectations for a sustained bull market in technology stocks following the DEEPSEEK breakthrough. However, the market may face a risk-off phase during earnings reporting periods or geopolitical events [81][82]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company, expecting the stock to outperform the market by over 20% within the next six months [3][14]. Core Views - The company's profit growth has rebounded, with a slight increase in dividend levels, indicating a positive outlook for future performance [4][7]. - The bank's total assets grew by 3.4% year-on-year, with loans and deposits increasing by 5.0% and 7.7% respectively, showcasing stable growth [4][8]. - The report highlights a decrease in the non-performing loan (NPL) ratio to 1.07%, reflecting improved asset quality [8][11]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved an operating income of 212.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.66%, and a net profit of 77.2 billion yuan, up 0.12% [4][6]. - The annualized ROE for the company was reported at 9.89% [4]. Revenue and Profitability - The net interest income for 2024 was 148.1 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 1.1% [9][11]. - Non-interest income showed a slight decline of 0.3% year-on-year, indicating stability in revenue streams [7][9]. Asset Quality - The NPL ratio improved to 1.07%, with a coverage ratio of 238%, indicating strong risk mitigation measures [8][11]. - The report notes a decrease in credit impairment losses by 1.6% year-on-year, contributing to the recovery in profit growth [7][9]. Dividend Policy - The company announced a dividend plan of 10.60 yuan per 10 shares, resulting in a cash dividend payout ratio of 30.17%, enhancing the attractiveness of the stock for income-focused investors [4][8]. Future Outlook - The report projects a modest growth in EPS, estimating 3.77 yuan for 2025, 3.93 yuan for 2026, and 4.14 yuan for 2027, reflecting a cautious but positive growth trajectory [7][12].