海外宏观 2025 年 7 月 24 日 宏观动态跟踪报告 "弱美元"：来到十字路口 证券分析师 | 钟正生 | 投资咨询资格编号 | | --- | --- | | | S1060520090001 | | | ZHONGZHENGSHENG934@pingan.com.cn | | 张璐 | 投资咨询资格编号 | | | S1060522100001 | | | ZHANGLU15@pingan.com.cn | | 范城恺 | 投资咨询资格编号 | | | S1060523010001 | | | FANCHENGKAI146@pingan.com.cn | 平安观点： 本文从美元"微笑曲线"、美国债务及全球资金配置三个视角，回顾 2025 上半年 "弱美元"的成因，并展望下半年美元指数的方向。综合判断，在 2025 下半年， 美元指数进一步下行的空间或有限，不排除阶段反弹。 风险提示：美国关税政策超预期，美国经济和就业超预期走弱，美联储独立性不 及预期，非美地区经济超预期走强等。 宏 观 报 告 宏 观 动 态 跟 踪 证 券 研 究 报 告 一、 一、 "微笑曲线"居中。美国经济与全球（非美）经济的 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Changshu Bank, expecting the stock to outperform the market by over 20% within the next six months [11]. Core Views - Changshu Bank's revenue and profit growth remain robust, with a 10.1% year-on-year increase in revenue and a 13.55% increase in net profit attributable to shareholders for the first half of 2025 [4][7]. - The bank's total assets reached 401.3 billion yuan as of June 2025, reflecting a 9.46% growth since the beginning of the year, while total loans and deposits grew by 4.40% and 8.46%, respectively [4][7]. - The bank's asset quality remains excellent, with a non-performing loan (NPL) ratio stable at 0.76% and a high provision coverage ratio of 490% as of June 2025 [7][9]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, Changshu Bank reported a revenue of 5,000 million yuan and a net profit of 1,800 million yuan, with respective year-on-year growth rates of 10.1% and 13.6% [4][7]. - The bank's projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is 1.33 yuan, with expected growth rates of 15.3% for 2025, 15.0% for 2026, and 13.7% for 2027 [6][7]. Asset Quality - The NPL ratio is projected to decrease slightly from 0.77% in 2024 to 0.72% by 2027, indicating a stable asset quality outlook [9]. - The provision coverage ratio is expected to decline from 501% in 2024 to 437% by 2027, but remains at a high level [9]. Growth Projections - The bank's total assets are expected to grow from 400.1 billion yuan in 2025 to 486.5 billion yuan by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 10.9% [9]. - Customer deposits are projected to increase from 330.4 billion yuan in 2025 to 414.4 billion yuan by 2027, reflecting a strong growth trajectory [9]. Market Position - Changshu Bank continues to focus on retail and small micro-businesses, leveraging its strong pricing power and expanding its market presence through differentiated strategies [7][9].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Analyze the recent liquidity of US Treasuries from three dimensions: primary market, secondary market, and repo market, and construct the Ping An US Treasury Liquidity Stress Index and sub - indices to explore trading opportunities [6] - When the liquidity stress exceeds the threshold, the Fed may provide liquidity support; when the liquidity premium surges in the short - term, investors can buy US Treasuries opportunistically [6] Group 3: Summary of Each Section PART1: Three Dimensions to Examine Recent US Treasury Liquidity US Treasury Primary Market - The primary issuance of US Treasuries uses the Dutch auction method, and there are competitive and non - competitive participants. Competitive participants include direct and indirect bidders, and non - competitive participants have certain quota limits [10][11][15] - The demand for US Treasury auctions can be observed through indicators such as bid - to - cover ratio, primary dealer award ratio, and the difference between the winning yield and the when - issued yield. Recently, the 10Y US Treasury auction has been in good condition [19] US Treasury Secondary Market - Since 2022, the actual and implied volatility of US Treasuries has significantly increased, possibly due to high inflation and policy shocks. The term premium has also been rising, and the Bloomberg US Treasury liquidity index indicates a deterioration in liquidity conditions [21][26][34] - This year, the secondary market has remained highly active, with trading concentrated in the 3 - 5Y maturity, but the bid - ask spread has widened, indicating greater market volatility and divergence in investor expectations [38][39][44] US Treasury Repo Market - The US repo market is divided into four sub - markets according to whether there is tri - party custody and central counterparty. Different markets have different main participants [50][51] - The repo funding price has not shown stratification, and the financing conditions are good. However, the growth rate of the sponsored repo scale has slowed down, which may reflect institutional de - leveraging behavior [60][65] PART2: Construction of the US Treasury Liquidity Stress Index and Exploration of Trading Opportunities Construction of the Ping An US Treasury Liquidity Stress Index - Based on 13 indicators from three dimensions of the primary market, secondary market, and repo market, the Ping An US Treasury Liquidity Stress Index is constructed. The index is standardized and truncated at the 99.9% and 0.1% quantiles, and the sub - indices of each dimension are weighted to obtain the final index [70][75][78] Policy Intervention When the Index Exceeds the Threshold - When the US Treasury liquidity stress index exceeds the threshold (the absolute level is greater than 0.8 and the increase from the lowest point in the past 3 months is more than 1 standard deviation), the Fed may intervene, such as in the cases of the 2019 repo market crisis, the 2020 pandemic shock, and the 2023 Silicon Valley Bank event [80][83] Trading Opportunities Based on Liquidity Premium - US Treasury liquidity fluctuations bring trading opportunities. When the liquidity premium surges in the short - term, investors can buy opportunistically. Taking the situation where the US Treasury liquidity stress index is above 0.7 compared to the lowest point in the past 3 months for two consecutive days as a buying signal, the 10Y US Treasury yield has mostly declined within 20 trading days after the signal is triggered since 2019 [87][90]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The science - innovation bonds still have relative value, especially the inter - bank science - innovation bonds. The scale of science - innovation bond funds is expected to have significant room for improvement, and the total scale of science - innovation bond ETFs focusing on high - grade corporate bonds may reach 139.4 billion yuan this year. The current valuation of science - innovation bonds is not expensive, and the inter - bank science - innovation medium - term notes are relatively more recommended [3][4]. - The premium and discount of science - innovation bond ETFs will bring redemption and arbitrage opportunities. When the premium or discount amplitude exceeds 0.245%, there may be certain arbitrage space. In the short - term rapid bear market of credit bonds, ETFs are expected to be better bottom - fishing tools [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Features and Yield Levels of Science - Innovation Bond ETFs - The first batch of science - innovation bond ETFs have made the yield of component bonds about 7BP lower than that of ordinary corporate bonds on average. These ETFs are an important tool for regulators to support science - innovation bonds this year. With their establishment and the increase in shares, they directly benefit the performance of component bonds and indirectly benefit other exchange - listed bonds of the same issuer. The component bonds of the science - innovation bond index tracked by the first batch of science - innovation bond ETFs are all high - grade public - offering science - innovation corporate bonds listed on the exchange, so these bonds have performed well recently [4][6]. - As of July 15, the component bonds of the benchmark market - making credit bond index were 6.1BP lower than ordinary corporate bonds, the component bonds of the science - innovation bond index were 7BP lower than ordinary corporate bonds, and the general corporate bonds that were component bonds of both indexes were 12.2BP lower than ordinary corporate bonds [4]. 3.2 Comparison of Different Indexes and Bonds - There is a large overlap in the underlying bonds of the first batch of science - innovation bond ETFs and the first batch of benchmark market - making credit bond ETFs. There are about 254 bonds included in both the AAA benchmark market - making credit bond index and the three AAA science - innovation bond indexes, with a total scale of 527.7 billion yuan, accounting for about 50% of the total scale of both indexes [7]. - The yield of science - innovation bond index component bonds is significantly lower than that of non - component corporate bonds, and the yield of science - innovation bonds that are component bonds of both types of indexes is even lower. Also, the yield of science - innovation bond index component bonds is lower than that of the same - issuer science - innovation medium - term notes [12]. 3.3 Investment Value of Science - Innovation Bonds - From the perspective of physical bonds, science - innovation bonds still have relative value, and investors are advised to pay more attention to inter - bank science - innovation bonds. The scale of science - innovation bond funds is expected to continue to rise. The current interest rate of science - innovation bonds is slightly higher than that of green bonds, so science - innovation bonds are expected to outperform other bonds in the future [15]. - The yield of science - innovation medium - term notes significantly exceeds that of science - innovation corporate bonds, and as science - innovation bond funds are expected to include inter - bank science - innovation bonds in their investment scope, inter - bank science - innovation bonds may outperform exchange - listed science - innovation bonds in the future [18]. 3.4 Investment Opportunities of Science - Innovation Bond ETFs - The premium and discount of science - innovation bond ETFs will bring two types of investment opportunities at the ETF level: redemption and arbitrage, and discount regression trading. The redemption and arbitrage cost is about 0.245%, so when the premium or discount amplitude of science - innovation bond ETFs exceeds 0.245%, there may be certain arbitrage space. The first batch of science - innovation bond ETFs had a small premium and discount amplitude on the listing day, so it is expected to be difficult to realize arbitrage for the time being [19][22]. - In the short - term rapid bear market of credit bonds, ETFs are expected to be better bottom - fishing tools. It is recommended that investors participate in bottom - fishing opportunities on the right side [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the semiconductor testing equipment industry [1]. Core Insights - The rapid development of AI chips and HBM (High Bandwidth Memory) is driving new testing demands in the semiconductor industry, highlighting the need for improved domestic production capabilities in testing equipment [1][4]. - The domestic semiconductor testing equipment market is expected to grow significantly, with projections indicating a market size of 26.74 billion yuan by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 12.6% [16]. - The report emphasizes the importance of post-manufacturing testing to ensure that chips meet design specifications, with a focus on the core testing equipment: testing machines, sorting machines, and probe stations [8][14]. Summary by Sections 1. Semiconductor Post-Manufacturing Testing - Semiconductor testing is crucial across design, manufacturing, and packaging stages to ensure chip functionality meets design specifications [6][8]. - The testing equipment market is stable, with testing machines accounting for over 61.9% of the market share in 2022 [16]. 2. New Requirements from AI Chips and HBM - AI chips are experiencing rapid growth, with the global AI chip market expected to reach approximately $92 billion by 2025, growing at a CAGR of 27.7% [22]. - The complexity of AI chip designs and advanced manufacturing processes increases testing challenges, necessitating more efficient testing systems [29]. 3. Domestic Semiconductor Testing Equipment Market - The domestic market for semiconductor testing equipment is primarily dominated by foreign companies, with a significant opportunity for domestic manufacturers to increase their market share [40]. - Current projections indicate that the domestic localization rate for storage testing machines will only be 8% by 2025, and for SOC testing machines, it will be 9% by 2027 [44]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on domestic companies such as Changchuan Technology, Huafeng Measurement and Control, Jinhaitong, Jingzhida, and Helin Micro-Nano, which are expected to benefit from the growing demand for semiconductor testing equipment [4].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market," indicating an expected performance that exceeds the market by more than 5% over the next six months [8]. Core Insights - The growth rate of financial institution loans has slightly declined, with retail loans experiencing low growth. The total balance of RMB loans reached 268.56 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7.1% as of the end of Q2 2025, with an increase of 3.14 trillion yuan in the second quarter [2][4]. - The decline in loan growth is primarily attributed to the accelerated issuance of government bonds, which has negatively impacted corporate loans. The growth rate of corporate loans remains the main focus, with industrial medium and long-term loans growing by 10.7% year-on-year [4]. - The growth of inclusive small and micro loans remains stable, with a year-on-year increase of 12.3%, which is 5.2 percentage points higher than the overall loan growth rate [4]. - The mortgage loan growth rate has stabilized, with a slight year-on-year decline of 0.1%. The report anticipates that continued reductions in loan interest rates may enhance home-buying enthusiasm [4]. Summary by Sections Loan Growth Trends - As of the end of Q2 2025, the growth rate of financial institution loans has decreased by 0.3 percentage points compared to Q1, with corporate loans being the primary focus of resource allocation [4]. - The growth of real estate loans has shown a slight recovery, with a year-on-year increase of 4.9% [4]. Policy Impact and Market Dynamics - The report emphasizes the importance of policy implementation effects, particularly in the mortgage sector, where the decline in growth has slowed down [4]. - The changing structure of funding is highlighted as a significant factor in driving sector valuation recovery, with stable inflows from passive indices and a preference for high-dividend bank stocks among long-term funds [4]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a strategic shift towards reallocation rather than trading, focusing on the dividend configuration value of the banking sector. It expresses optimism for A-share listed banks and certain regional banks with strong dividend advantages [4].

行 业 报 告 行业点评 《农村公路条例》公布，乡村基建持续推进 强于大市( 维持) 行情走势图 相关研究报告 【平安证券】行业动态跟踪报告*建材*雅下水电项目 开工，利好西藏水泥企业——建材洞察系列之三*强 于大市20250721 【平安证券】行业半年度策略报告*建材*格局逐步优 化，期待"止跌回稳" ——建材行业2025年中期策略报 告*强于大市20250629 证券分析师 郑南宏 投资咨询资格编号 S1060521120001 ZHENGNANHONG873@pingan.com.cn 杨侃 投资咨询资格编号 S1060514080002 BQV514 YANGKAN034@pingan.com.cn 事项： 据新华社7月22日消息，国务院总理李强日前签署国务院令，公布《农村公路 条例》，自2025年9月15日起施行。 平安观点： 研 究 报 告 技术等级要求的公路。意味着待升级改造的农村公路有12.5万公里。根 据《2024年交通运输行业发展统计公报》，2024年全年新改建农村公路 里程达16.41万公里；另据交通运输部数据显示，今年1-5月全国农村公 路完成固定资产投资1311.6亿元，完成新改建农 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - Following the announcement of the "package financial policy" in May, although there was a month-on-month recovery in June, the real estate market weakened again in July. The report emphasizes that while the market focuses on overall performance and policy expectations, certain "core areas and good properties" are stabilizing, with some quality real estate companies gradually emerging from the downturn and maintaining stable dividends. For instance, the expected year-on-year growth in net profit for Binjiang Group in H1 is between 40% and 70% [2][20] - The report highlights the potential acceleration of "good properties" and urban renewal as the central government emphasizes the transition of urbanization from rapid growth to stable development, focusing on quality improvement rather than quantity expansion [3][5] - The report notes an increase in long-term loans for residents, with June seeing a month-on-month increase of 335.3 billion, reflecting improvements in market transactions following the financial policy announcement. Additionally, private real estate companies are restarting overseas financing, with New Town Holdings issuing $300 million in senior notes at a high interest rate of 11.88% [2][19] Summary by Sections Policy - The central government has outlined a blueprint for urban work, emphasizing the acceleration of "good properties" and urban renewal. The focus is on transitioning urban development to quality improvement and promoting green, low-carbon cities [3][5][6] Market Performance - In July, the real estate market weakened again, with the average daily transaction volume of new homes in 50 key cities decreasing by 39% month-on-month. However, certain "core areas and good properties" are stabilizing, indicating strong potential demand for quality properties [2][23][30] Land Market - The land supply in June increased by 1.2% month-on-month, while the transaction area rose by 19.2%. The average premium rate for land transactions was 5.53%, indicating a continued high demand for quality land in core cities [36][31] Real Estate Companies - The report indicates that the land acquisition intensity of the top 50 real estate companies has increased year-on-year, with a focus on "certainty" in their acquisition strategies. The average land acquisition-to-sales ratio improved significantly in H1 [41][46] Stock Market - The real estate sector saw a month-on-month increase of 0.93% in June, underperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index, which rose by 2.5%. The current price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) for the real estate sector is 41.62, placing it in the 97.94 percentile of the past five years [47][50]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [24] Core Viewpoints - The performance of mid-to-high-end liquor is stabilizing, with companies exploring new sales channels. Major companies are expected to build momentum for future growth after a period of adjustment [6][8] - The beverage sector is witnessing a shift from "thirst-quenching" to "solution-oriented" consumption, leading to diverse functional demands. This trend is driving the development of new products such as functional drinks and health-oriented beverages [6][8] - The snack food segment is experiencing strong growth due to its ability to meet emotional value and cost-performance demands from consumers [6][8] Summary by Relevant Sections Liquor Industry - The liquor index has shown a cumulative increase of 1.30% this week, with notable stock performances from Luzhou Laojiao (+4.79%), Yanghe Brewery (+4.37%), and Jiu Gui Jiu (+3.64%) [6] - The first half of 2025 is expected to see a continued decline in revenue for major liquor companies, with Jiu Gui Jiu forecasting a 43% year-on-year drop in revenue [6][8] Food Industry - The food index has recorded a cumulative decrease of 0.13% this week, with top performers including Baihe Group (+5.73%) and Huang Shang Huang (+5.12%) [8] - The beverage market is diversifying, with companies launching new products to cater to specific consumer needs, such as electrolyte water and sugar-free tea [6][8] Key Company Earnings Forecast - Guizhou Moutai is projected to have an EPS of 68.64 yuan for 2024, with a PE ratio of 20.9, and is rated as "Recommended" [23] - Wuliangye is expected to have an EPS of 8.21 yuan for 2024, with a PE ratio of 15.1, also rated as "Recommended" [23] - The report highlights several companies with strong growth potential, including Three Squirrels and Dongpeng Beverage [6][23]

Group 1: Bank Liability Pressure - Since the second half of 2024, listed banks have shown stable asset expansion, primarily driven by a recovery in deposit growth, with a notable increase in bond and interbank financing[2][14]. - The structure of deposits has shifted, with personal deposits growing faster than corporate deposits, leading to an increase in the proportion of personal deposits in listed banks[2][20]. - Large banks face relatively greater pressure on their deposit growth compared to smaller banks, as their deposit structure is more balanced but has been significantly impacted by the cessation of manual interest supplementation in April 2024[2][26]. Group 2: Financial Investment Trends - The importance of financial investments has increased, with banks actively increasing their financial investments in response to rising interest rate spreads[3][34]. - Different types of banks exhibit varying preferences for trading and investment accounts, with rural commercial banks showing a higher trading attribute compared to state-owned banks[3][40]. - The contribution of financial investment to income has shown volatility, with a negative correlation observed between the 10-year government bond yield and the income contribution from financial investment trading[3][51]. Group 3: Net Interest Margin Dynamics - The net interest margin (NIM) is primarily influenced by the yield on interest-earning assets and the cost of interest-bearing liabilities, with the latter being more rigid[4][59]. - Recent trends indicate that the decline in loan yields and the rise in deposit costs have been the main factors compressing NIM in recent years[4][73]. - The central bank's monetary easing can temporarily boost NIM by lowering interbank financing costs and improving asset yields through enhanced investment and consumption willingness[4][74].