Group 1 - The report highlights the successful hosting of COMPUTEX, focusing on AI, data centers, and robotics as key trends, with major chip manufacturers showcasing innovations [4][35][36] - In April, the semiconductor market showed signs of recovery, with stable chip delivery times and strong AI-related orders, while automotive and industrial demand began to rebound [4][38] - The report anticipates a structural growth driven by AI in Q2, with recommendations to focus on SoC, ASIC, storage, and CIS opportunities [4][39] Group 2 - The report on Lian Micro (立昂微) indicates a record high revenue of 3.092 billion yuan in 2024, a 14.97% increase year-on-year, despite a net loss of 266 million yuan [10][25] - The company is expanding its production capacity and optimizing its product structure to meet the growing demand in AI, electrification, and smart technology sectors [10][27] - The report projects a downward adjustment in profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026, with net profits expected to be 89 million yuan and 180 million yuan respectively, while maintaining a "hold" rating due to anticipated growth in downstream markets [10][29] Group 3 - The report on Huazhi Wine (华致酒行) reveals a significant decline in Q1 2025 revenue and net profit, with a 31.01% drop in revenue to 2.852 billion yuan [11][31] - The company is implementing a comprehensive adjustment strategy to address inventory and sales challenges, aiming for a recovery in profits by 2025 [11][33] - Future revenue projections for 2025-2027 are set at 9.910 billion, 10.670 billion, and 11.192 billion yuan respectively, with a significant expected increase in net profit [11][33]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price not specified [7] Core Views - The company's revenue for 2024 is projected to be 73.44 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 8.46%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to reach 25.89 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 13.45% [1] - The company experienced a decline in performance in Q1 2025, with revenue dropping by 12.35% year-on-year to 20.47 billion yuan [1] - The company aims to maintain a dividend payout ratio of 46.35%, slightly up from 45.46% in 2023 [1] Revenue Breakdown - In 2024, the company's liquor business revenue reached 70.02 billion yuan, with high-end liquor (including the cave series) contributing 57.13 billion yuan, up 13.76% year-on-year, while ordinary liquor revenue fell by 6.53% to 12.90 billion yuan [2] - For Q1 2025, the liquor business revenue was 19.62 billion yuan, down 12.32% year-on-year, with high-end liquor revenue at 17.20 billion yuan, a decrease of 8.57%, and ordinary liquor revenue plummeting by 32.09% to 2.42 billion yuan [2] Regional Performance - In 2024, the company's revenue from the domestic market was 50.93 billion yuan, up 12.75% year-on-year, while revenue from outside the province was 19.09 billion yuan, a modest increase of 1.31% [3] - In Q1 2025, domestic revenue was 16.33 billion yuan, down 7.71% year-on-year, while revenue from outside the province fell significantly by 29.74% to 3.29 billion yuan [3] Profitability and Cost Structure - The company's gross margin for 2024 improved to 73.94%, with a net profit margin of 35.26%, reflecting an increase of 2.57 and 1.21 percentage points year-on-year, respectively [4] - In Q1 2025, the gross margin further increased to 76.49%, with a net profit margin of 40.47%, indicating a continued improvement in profitability [4] Financial Forecasts - The company has revised its revenue forecasts for 2025-2027, now expecting revenues of 74.4 billion yuan, 79.9 billion yuan, and 85.1 billion yuan, respectively, down from previous estimates of 85.6 billion yuan and 97.3 billion yuan for 2025 and 2026 [4] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be 26.3 billion yuan, 28.7 billion yuan, and 31.0 billion yuan for 2025-2027, respectively [4] Valuation Metrics - The projected price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for 2025-2027 are 12.8X, 11.7X, and 10.9X, respectively [4] - The company’s total market capitalization is reported at 33.664 billion yuan, with a current price of 42.08 yuan per share [7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Microsoft is "Buy" with a 6-month outlook maintained [5]. Core Insights - Microsoft reported FY25Q3 revenue of $70.1 billion, a 13% year-over-year increase, surpassing Bloomberg consensus estimates of $68.5 billion. Gross profit reached $48.1 billion, exceeding expectations of $46.7 billion, with earnings per share at $3.46, up 18% year-over-year, also above the consensus of $3.21 [1]. - The guidance for FY2025Q4 revenue is projected between $73.15 billion and $74.25 billion, with expected operating expenses of $18 billion to $18.1 billion. Despite ongoing investments in AI, the operating profit margin is expected to see a slight year-over-year increase for the full fiscal year 2025 [1]. - The productivity and business processes segment generated $29.9 billion in revenue, a 10% increase year-over-year, driven by Microsoft 365 and LinkedIn. M365 commercial cloud revenue grew by 12%, with ARPU uplift driven by Copilot and E5 packages. Consumer subscriptions increased to 87.7 million due to a price hike in January [1]. - The personal computing segment reported revenue of $13.4 billion, a 6% year-over-year increase, exceeding expectations. Windows OEM and device revenue grew by 3%, impacted by high inventory levels. Search and news advertising revenue increased by 21%, benefiting from third-party partnerships and increased usage of Bing and Edge [2]. - The intelligent cloud segment achieved revenue of $26.8 billion, a 21% year-over-year increase, primarily driven by Azure, which saw a 33% revenue growth. AI services contributed approximately 16 percentage points to this growth, indicating strong enterprise demand and faster-than-expected expansion of AI infrastructure [2]. - Over 70,000 enterprises utilized Foundry to design, customize, and manage AI applications and agents, processing over 100 trillion tokens, a fivefold increase year-over-year. Microsoft 365 Copilot user numbers tripled year-over-year, with record customer renewals [3]. - Capital expenditures were guided to remain unchanged at $21.4 billion, slightly below expectations, with approximately half allocated to cloud and AI-related long-term assets [3]. - The report indicates that Microsoft is experiencing high-quality growth momentum driven by AI, with significant acceleration in AI revenue growth and robust performance in Azure. The company is also focused on cost reduction and efficiency improvements, leading to a projected increase in profit margins for FY25 [4].

海外行业报告 | 行业动态研究 谷歌 I/O 大会点评： 重构 AI 全栈生态，谷歌 AI 重回领跑者位置 事件： 5 月 21 日凌晨，谷歌 2025 年度 I/O 开发者大会的主题演讲展示了在基础 模型、多模态、AI 智能体、可穿戴设备等领域的最新成果。Gemini 2.5 Pro 模型实现多任务处理能力跃升，推理效率与准确性显著提升；智能眼镜 XR 发布，推动端侧设备场景落地；AI 驱动的搜索与网页浏览功能，通过生成 式 AI 实现从信息检索到智能交互的转变，标志着 AI 正加速向 "通用智 能体" 进化。 AI 渗透率加速提升，已成为驱动谷歌核心产品增长的重要引擎。谷歌 CEO Sundar Pichai 表示谷歌 AI 大模型及 API 月均处理 Token 量已从去年同 期的 9.7 万亿快速提升至 480 万亿，增幅达 48 倍；其搜索业务中 AI 综 述功能的月活跃用户规模达到 15 亿。谷歌 Lens 搜索次数的年增长率为 65%，今年已经完成超过 1000 亿次视觉搜索。 Gemini 系列模型持续迭代升级，加速向一站式 AI 服务平台演进。Gemini 2.5 在多模态理解、代码生成、长 ...

Investment Rating - Industry rating is Neutral (maintained rating) [1] Core Viewpoints - The basic chemical industry saw a slight increase in revenue in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 2.6%, reaching a total revenue of 22,285 billion yuan. However, profits faced pressure, with a net profit decrease of 5.7% to 1,211 billion yuan [4][13]. - In Q1 2025, the industry experienced a year-on-year revenue increase of 5.4%, totaling 5,345 billion yuan, while net profit rose by 10.6% to 374 billion yuan [6][10]. - The overall gross profit margin for the industry in 2024 was 12.8%, a decline of 0.7 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 5.6%, down 0.5 percentage points [4][13]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Profit Trends - In 2024, the basic chemical industry achieved a total operating revenue of 22,285 billion yuan, with a slight year-on-year increase of 2.6%. Operating profit was 1,564 billion yuan, down 4.1% year-on-year, and net profit attributable to shareholders was 1,211 billion yuan, down 5.7% [4][13]. - For Q1 2025, the industry reported operating revenue of 5,345 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.4%, and a net profit of 374 billion yuan, reflecting a 10.6% increase [6][10]. Profitability Metrics - The industry’s overall gross profit margin was 12.8% in 2024, a decrease of 0.7 percentage points from the previous year. The net profit margin stood at 5.6%, down 0.5 percentage points year-on-year [4][13]. - In Q1 2025, the net profit margin improved to 7.2%, with a year-on-year increase of 0.3 percentage points and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 4.7 percentage points [6][10]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on industries with stable demand and supply logic, such as refrigerants, phosphate fertilizers, and amino acids, while also considering sectors with stable supply and demand logic, including MDI and agricultural chemicals [8]. - It emphasizes the importance of identifying industries with marginal improvements in both supply and demand, such as organic silicon [8]. Construction and Fixed Assets - In Q1 2025, the growth rate of construction in progress fell into negative territory for the first time since 2018, indicating a shift in capital expenditure trends within the industry [7]. - The total fixed assets for the industry reached 13,979 billion yuan, reflecting an 11.9% year-on-year increase [7].

公司报告 | 公司点评 立昂微（605358） 证券研究报告 营收创新高与盈利困境并存，行业复苏曙光初现 事件：公司发布 2024 年年度报告和 2025 年一季报。2024 年度公司实现营业收入 30.92 亿元，同 比增长 14.97%；实现归母净利润-2.66 亿元，同比下降 504.18%；扣非归母净利润-2.66 亿元，同比 下降 152.04%。2025Q1 公司实现营业收入 8.20 亿元，同比增长 20.82%；实现归母净利润-0.81 亿 元，同比增亏；实现扣非归母净利润-0.81 亿元，同比增亏。 点评：营收再创新高展现增长韧性，盈利承压待解多重挑战。2024 年，公司全员攻坚克难， 推动 产能、技术、市场与良率实现显著提升，发展态势持续向好，营业收入创历史新高，市场份额持续 扩大，2024 年公司营业收入的大幅增加主要系 2024 年半导体行业景气度的见底回暖及公司加强市 场拓展、调整产品结构，产品销量同比实现了大幅增长所致。然而，由于欧美发达经济体受高利率 与能源转型阵痛制约增速放缓，叠加地缘政治冲突及产业链重构加速，使得公司经营迎来多重挑战： 产能扩张带来成本压力，产品降价导致毛利率 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price not specified [5]. Core Views - The company reported a decline in revenue and net profit for Q1 2025, with revenue at 2.852 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 31.01%, and net profit at 85 million yuan, down 34.19% [1][2]. - The company is undergoing a comprehensive adjustment in response to market changes, focusing on high-end liquor while also emphasizing cost-effective products [3]. - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 9.910 billion yuan, 10.670 billion yuan, and 11.192 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth rates of 4.71%, 7.67%, and 4.89% respectively [3]. Financial Performance Summary - For Q1 2025, the company's gross margin was 10.44%, a slight decrease of 0.04 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 2.99%, down 0.15 percentage points [2]. - The company’s operating cash flow for Q1 2025 was 418 million yuan, a decrease of 1.95% year-on-year, indicating a relatively strong performance in cash flow management despite profit pressures [2]. - The projected net profit for 2025 is 1.301 billion yuan, reflecting a significant year-on-year increase of 192.79% [3]. Financial Data and Valuation - The company’s total revenue for 2023 is projected at 10.121 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 16.22%, followed by a decline in 2024 to 9.464 billion yuan [4]. - The estimated earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is 0.31 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 66.65 [4]. - The company’s total assets are projected to reach 7.636 billion yuan by 2025, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 61.55% [10].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [9] Core Views - The company achieved a record high revenue of 3.092 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 14.97%, but faced significant losses with a net profit attributable to shareholders of -266 million yuan, a decline of 504.18% [1][5] - The revenue growth in Q1 2025 was 20.82% year-on-year, reaching 820 million yuan, but the net profit continued to decline, indicating ongoing profitability challenges [1][2] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported a revenue of 3.092 billion yuan, a 14.97% increase from the previous year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was -266 million yuan, down 504.18% [1][7] - For Q1 2025, the company generated 820 million yuan in revenue, marking a 20.82% increase year-on-year, but the net profit remained negative at -81 million yuan [1][2] Business Development - The company has expanded its market share and improved production capacity, technology, and yield, contributing to the revenue increase [2][3] - The semiconductor wafer business saw a sales volume increase of 62.91% and revenue growth of 26.93%, reaching 1.906 billion yuan [3] - The RF chip business experienced a significant revenue increase of 115.08%, becoming a key driver of performance growth [3][4] Research and Innovation - The company invested 290 million yuan in R&D in 2024, accounting for 9.39% of revenue, focusing on high-value-added products and key technology breakthroughs [4] - The company developed 14 new products in the semiconductor wafer sector and achieved mass production of 72 new 12-inch products [4] Market Outlook - The global semiconductor market is recovering, driven by demand for memory and logic chips, as well as power semiconductors in electric vehicles and photovoltaics [4] - The company is building a "reservoir" capacity reserve system to meet the growing downstream demand in AI, electrification, and smart technology [4] Investment Forecast - Due to declining product prices impacting profitability, the profit forecast for 2025 and 2026 has been revised downwards, with expected net profits of 89 million yuan and 180 million yuan respectively [5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price not specified [5] Core Views - The company reported a decline in Q1 2025 with revenue, net profit attributable to the parent, and net profit excluding non-recurring items down by 31.01%, 34.19%, and 41.27% year-on-year, respectively [1] - The company is undergoing a comprehensive adjustment in response to market demand and channel changes, focusing on high-end liquor while also emphasizing cost-effective product layouts [3] - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 99.10 billion, 106.70 billion, and 111.92 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth of 4.71%, 7.67%, and 4.89%, respectively [3] Financial Performance Summary - In Q1 2025, the company's gross margin was 10.44%, with a slight decline of 0.04 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 2.99%, down 0.15 percentage points year-on-year [2] - The company reported operating cash flow of 418 million yuan in Q1 2025, a decrease of 1.95% year-on-year, indicating a relatively strong cash flow performance despite profit pressures [2] - The projected net profit for 2025 is 1.30 billion yuan, reflecting a significant year-on-year increase of 192.79% [4][3] Financial Data and Valuation - The company's revenue for 2023 is projected at 10,121.03 million yuan, with a growth rate of 16.22%, while the 2024 revenue is expected to decline by 6.49% to 9,464.48 million yuan [4] - The estimated earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is 0.31 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 66.65 [4] - The company's total assets are projected to reach 7,636.04 million yuan by 2025, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 61.55% [10]

行业报告 | 行业研究周报 半导体 证券研究报告 COMPUTEX 成功举办，持续关注 AI 催化及 2 季度细分板块业绩弹性 COMPUTEX成功举办：AI、数据中心和机器人为三大热点，芯片大厂百花齐放。2025 年台北国际电脑展于 5 月 20 日至 23 日台北南港展览馆举办。本届COMPUTEX 以"AI Next"为主题，聚焦AI、数据中心与机器人三大领域， 汇聚英伟达、英特尔、高通等近1400 家科技巨头。英伟达：推出推理性能提升1.5倍的 GB300 系统，开放NVLink 生态实现跨厂商硬件互联，并发布开源机器人平台 Isaac GR00T 及物理引擎 Newton。英特尔：发布 Xe2架构的锐炫 Pro GPU系列和可扩展的Gaudi 3 AI 加速器，并预热能效比领先的 Panther Lake 处理器。高通：重启数据中心CPU 业务，搭载 NVLink 技术强化AI 算力协同，骁龙 X 系列 PC 生态覆盖超 85 款设备。联发科：宣布首款 2nm 芯片2025 年 9 月流片，基于台积电 GAAFET 工艺实现晶体管密度提升 15%。Microchip：展示汽车辐射加热方案、工业 TS ...