Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a 6-month outlook maintained [5]. Core Views - The company's Q1 2025 performance shows a 10% year-on-year revenue growth to 95.7 billion yuan, with marketing services revenue increasing by 15% to 48.7 billion yuan and transaction services revenue growing by 6% to 47.0 billion yuan. The revenue growth slowdown is attributed to intensified competition and external uncertainties, while adjusted net profit decreased by 45% to 16.9 billion yuan, with a Non-GAAP net profit margin of 18% [1][2]. - The company is facing challenges due to increased competition and its decision to enhance investments in merchant support and platform ecosystem development, leading to a 43% increase in sales expenses to 33.4 billion yuan. This may pressure short-term profitability, but the long-term outlook remains positive due to strengthened supply chain support for new merchants [2][3]. - The company's overseas market expansion, particularly the introduction of a semi-managed model in North America, is expected to impact transaction service revenue due to a decrease in overall monetization rates. The cancellation of the "small package tax exemption" policy in the U.S. may also increase merchant costs, potentially slowing growth in the North American market [3]. Summary by Sections - **Q1 2025 Performance**: Revenue increased by 10% to 95.7 billion yuan, with marketing services up 15% and transaction services up 6%. Adjusted net profit fell by 45% to 16.9 billion yuan [1]. - **Revenue and Profitability Challenges**: Revenue growth is slowing due to increased competition and the company's investment strategy, with sales expenses rising significantly. Short-term profitability may be under pressure, but long-term competitiveness is expected to improve [2]. - **Overseas Market Dynamics**: The introduction of a semi-managed model in North America may affect revenue, and regulatory changes could impact merchant costs and growth [3]. - **Revised Financial Projections**: The company’s revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 have been adjusted to 440.2 billion, 505.6 billion, and 577.4 billion yuan respectively, with Non-GAAP net profit estimates revised to 104.8 billion, 132.7 billion, and 155.5 billion yuan [3].

Domestic Policy News - The General Secretary emphasized accelerating the construction of an education powerhouse, highlighting the importance of education for national strength and rejuvenation [9][10] - Premier Li Qiang attended the ASEAN-China-GCC summit, focusing on regional economic cooperation amidst global challenges [11][12] - The People's Bank of China introduced a new management method for cybersecurity incidents in its business areas [20] Equity Market Analysis - In May, the A-share market rebounded significantly, with the ChiNext and Shenzhen Composite Index rising by 2.32% and 2.94% respectively, driven by a series of stabilizing measures [21][22] - The MSCI China A-share Index increased by 1.6% in May, reflecting positive market sentiment [21] - Southbound capital maintained a net inflow of 41.992 billion yuan in May, indicating strong investor interest [21] Fixed Income Market Analysis - The central bank net injected 599.8 billion yuan in May, responding to liquidity pressures from accelerated government bond issuance [46][47] - The 10-year government bond yield fluctuated around 1.68%, reflecting stable market conditions despite external uncertainties [46] Commodity Market Analysis - The non-ferrous metals market showed signs of recovery, while crude oil prices rebounded from recent lows [23] - Agricultural products, particularly pork, continued to experience weak fluctuations, indicating ongoing market challenges [23] Policy Impact Analysis - The adjustment of the CSI 300 index sample reflects a shift towards emerging sectors, enhancing market representation [22] - The manufacturing PMI for May was reported at 49.5%, indicating a need for further counter-cyclical policy measures to support economic stability [23][24]

证券研究报告 2025年06月04日 海外行业报告：行业研究简报 布鲁可集团 国产模型玩具龙头企业，盲盒积木人+万代国产替 代引领市场潜力释放 作者： 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和免责申明 1 分析师 孔蓉 SAC执业证书编号：S1110521020002 分析师 曹睿 SAC执业证书编号：S1110523020003 摘要 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和免责申明 2 • 布鲁可集团是中国最大的拼搭角色类玩具企业。根据弗若斯特沙利文统计，2023年公司实现GMV 18亿元，同比增长超 170%，是全球增速最快的规模化玩具企业。公司与超30个全球知名IP有合作关系，同时也拥有自创IP系列"百变布鲁 克"和"英雄无限"。 • "高性价比+高IP知名度"的品牌形象被消费者所熟知，2024年公司拼搭角色类玩具实现销量1.35亿件。1）高性价比： 公司产品矩阵丰富，产品定价布局完整。公司旗下产品组合可被划分为"拼搭角色类玩具"和"积木玩具"两种类型， 主流产品定价在19.9元至399元不等，热销大众产品价格在39元左右，平价产品则为19.9元。2）高IP知名度：公司拥有 超过30个自创IP资源及全球知名IP授权产品， ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a 6-month outlook maintained [5]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 26.1 million yuan in Q1 2025, down from 61.7 million yuan in the same period last year, with a gross margin of 62.4% compared to 61.9% year-on-year. The adjusted net loss was 31.1 million yuan, increasing from 10.1 million yuan year-on-year [1]. - The company has received the operational certificate (OC) for its EH216-S model, allowing for commercial flight services in designated areas. This certification is expected to accelerate the company's commercial operations and expand its market presence [2]. - The company is expanding its production capacity with plans to increase annual output to 1,000 units by the end of 2025, supported by the construction of a new production base in Yunfu and a strategic partnership in Hefei [4]. - The revenue guidance for 2025 is set at 900 million yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 97%, with expectations of continued growth in revenue for the years 2025 to 2027 [4]. Business Progress - The company has successfully obtained the first batch of operational certificates for its EH216-S from the Civil Aviation Administration of China (CAAC), enabling commercial operations [2]. - The international market expansion includes successful test flights in Spain and Mexico, increasing the number of countries where the company operates to 19 [2]. Product Development - The new generation eVTOL, VT35, is currently undergoing airworthiness certification with the CAAC, and the prototype has completed manufacturing and is in the testing phase, with plans for release in Q3 2025 [3].

Group 1: AI Industry Insights - NVIDIA reported Q1 revenue of $44.1 billion, a 12% increase quarter-over-quarter and a 69% increase year-over-year, with a forecast of $45 billion for Q2 FY2026 [1] - The AI industry is expected to be a key investment theme in 2025, with both China and the US making significant progress in AI infrastructure and applications [1] - Long-term investment opportunities are suggested in "AI + overseas expansion + satellite" sectors, focusing on areas like optical modules, liquid cooling, and domestic computing power [1] Group 2: Food and Beverage Sector - The food and beverage sector saw a decline of 1.06% from May 26 to May 30, with soft drinks and low-alcohol segments performing well, increasing by 9.27% and 7.13% respectively [26][27] - Key recommendations include focusing on white liquor brands like Moutai and Fenjiu, and monitoring the performance of yellow wine during its data validation phase [26] - The upcoming 618 shopping festival and Q2-Q3 peak season are expected to boost sales in the soft drink and low-alcohol segments, with several companies benefiting from cost advantages [27][29] Group 3: Hong Kong Market Dynamics - The Hong Kong stock market saw a net inflow of 25.8 billion yuan over five trading days, with a total net inflow of 610.7 billion yuan year-to-date, representing 82% of the previous year's total [3] - The Hong Kong Legislative Council passed the "Hong Kong Stablecoin Ordinance," marking a significant step in financial innovation and stability [3] - Major internet companies are currently valued at relatively low PE ratios, with Meituan seeing significant accumulation of southbound funds [3] Group 4: Construction Materials - Cement clinker prices in the Yangtze River Delta region increased by 30 yuan per ton, with companies planning to implement staggered production from June to August [14] - The overall cement shipment rate was 48% in May, showing a year-on-year decline, but the recent price increase indicates a positive shift in market sentiment [14] - The report suggests that cement companies may see profit growth despite reduced volumes, with a focus on companies like China National Materials and West Cement [14] Group 5: Semiconductor Equipment - The company reported a 22% year-over-year increase in Q1 revenue to 1.48 billion yuan, with a significant rise in net profit [23] - The components business achieved a 70.45% revenue growth, driven by increased demand from the new energy sector [24] - The semiconductor segment is expected to contribute to future growth, with successful collaborations with major clients [25]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price set above the current price of 0.73 HKD, maintaining the rating for the next six months [6]. Core Viewpoints - The strategic investment by Xiangyuan Holdings into Haichang Ocean Park is seen as a significant move to enhance the company's position in the cultural tourism industry, marking a potential milestone in the sector's development by 2025 [1]. - The partnership is expected to create synergistic effects, combining Xiangyuan's stable operations with Haichang's innovative IP resources, leading to a greater overall value [4]. - The report highlights the potential for Haichang to improve its financial situation through the capital raised from the share issuance, which is expected to alleviate funding pressures and enhance operational efficiency [5]. Summary by Sections Investment Overview - Haichang plans to issue 5.1 billion new shares at a price of 0.45 HKD per share, raising a total of 22.95 billion HKD, which represents 62.85% of the current issued share capital [1]. - The subscription price reflects a discount of 46.43% compared to the closing price on June 2, and a premium of 99.95% over the net asset value per share [1]. Company Strategy - Xiangyuan Holdings has established a presence in 14 provinces with over 40 cultural tourism projects, focusing on key tourist destination clusters [2]. - Haichang operates seven marine parks and is actively introducing international IPs like Ultraman and One Piece to enhance market engagement [3]. Financial Projections - The report projects a decline in profit forecasts due to the impact of the consumer environment, with expected net profits of 0.2 billion and 1.9 billion HKD for 2025 and 2026, respectively [5]. - The adjusted EBITDA for 2024 is anticipated to be 1.66 billion HKD, indicating a decrease from the previous year [9]. Synergy and Growth Potential - The collaboration is expected to enrich the tourism resource landscape, creating a comprehensive "land-sea-air" tourism ecosystem [9]. - The integration of IP resources from both companies is anticipated to enhance the storytelling aspect of their offerings, facilitating a more immersive experience for visitors [9].

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Outperform the market (maintained rating) [6] Core Views - The report emphasizes investment opportunities in the soft drink and low-alcohol segments due to new products, low base effects, and the upcoming peak season [4][5][15] - The white liquor sector is recommended with a focus on Moutai and Fenjiu, while the yellow wine sector is under observation for data validation [3][18] - The report identifies four key themes in the consumer goods sector: cost control, new consumption trends, potential performance elasticity in Q2, and thematic expectations [18][22] Summary by Sections Market Performance Review - From May 26 to May 30, the food and beverage sector declined by 1.06%, while the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.03% [24] - Notable performances included soft drinks (+9.27%), other alcoholic beverages (+7.13%), and beer (+3.22%) [24] White and Yellow Liquor - The white liquor sector saw a decline of 2.76%, attributed to recent regulations and seasonal factors [3] - Shanxi Fenjiu aims for national expansion and product growth, indicating a strategic opportunity during the industry's adjustment phase [3][18] Beer and Beverage - The beer sector increased by 3.22%, supported by seasonal demand and promotional activities [14] - The report highlights the potential of the soft drink and low-alcohol segments, with significant growth in companies like Li Ziyuan and Dongpeng Beverage [15][22] Consumer Goods - The consumer goods sector is recommended based on four main themes: cost control, new consumption, potential performance elasticity, and thematic expectations [18][22] - The report suggests focusing on companies that can leverage these themes, such as Ximai Food and H&H [22] Investment Recommendations - Top picks include soft drinks and low-alcohol products like Li Ziyuan, Chengde Lulou, and Dongpeng Beverage [5][22] - For the white liquor sector, leading companies like Shanxi Fenjiu and Guizhou Moutai are recommended [5][22] - The report also suggests monitoring companies in the consumer goods sector that align with the identified themes [22]

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Outperform the market (maintained rating) [6] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes investment opportunities in the soft drink and low-alcohol segments due to new products, low base effects, and the upcoming peak season [4][5][15] - The white liquor sector is recommended with a focus on Moutai and Fenjiu, while the yellow wine sector is under observation for data validation [3][18] - The report identifies four key themes in the consumer goods sector: cost control, new consumption trends, potential performance elasticity in Q2, and thematic expectations [18][22] Summary by Sections Market Performance Review - From May 26 to May 30, the food and beverage sector declined by 1.06%, while the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.03% [24] - Notable performances included soft drinks (+9.27%), other alcoholic beverages (+7.13%), and beer (+3.22%) [24] White and Yellow Wine - The white liquor sector saw a decline of 2.76%, attributed to recent regulations and seasonal factors [3] - Fenjiu aims for national expansion and product growth, indicating a strategic opportunity during the industry's adjustment phase [3][18] Beer and Beverage - The beer sector increased by 3.22%, supported by seasonal demand and promotional activities [14] - The report highlights the potential in the soft drink and low-alcohol segments, driven by new marketing strategies and upcoming sales events [15][22] Consumer Goods - The report recommends focusing on four main themes: cost control, new consumption logic, potential performance elasticity, and thematic expectations [18][22] - Specific companies to watch include Ximai Foods, Li Ziyuan, and Sanhua Foods, among others [22] Investment Recommendations - Top picks include soft drinks and low-alcohol products such as Li Ziyuan, Chengde Lulou, and Dongpeng Beverage [5][22] - In the white liquor sector, Moutai and Fenjiu are highlighted for their strong alpha and benefits from market concentration [5][22]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for stocks, indicating an expected relative return of over 20% within the next six months [27] Core Insights - Southbound capital continues to flow into Hong Kong, with a net purchase of 25.8 billion yuan during the week, totaling 610.7 billion yuan year-to-date, which is 82% of the total net purchase for 2024 [1] - The Hong Kong Stablecoin Ordinance was officially enacted, marking a significant step for Hong Kong in the digital asset space [3][7] - The report highlights the potential of the IP economy and consumer recovery, suggesting structural opportunities in the upcoming IPOs and summer consumption peak [2] Summary by Sections Southbound Capital - Southbound funds have shown strong interest in Meituan, with a net purchase of 9.467 billion yuan [22] - The report notes that major indices in Hong Kong are set for significant adjustments, with companies like Bluko and Mijiu Group being added to the Hang Seng Composite Index [3] AI and Technology - The report emphasizes the advancements in AI applications, particularly with the release of Keling 2.1, which shows improved performance and cost-effectiveness [1] - The smart driving sector is expected to see a turning point with the launch of Tesla's robotaxi and new models from Li Auto and Xpeng [2] Company Performance - Meituan reported Q1 2025 revenue of 86.6 billion yuan, up 18.1% year-on-year, with adjusted net profit increasing by 46.2% [8] - Xiaomi's Q1 2025 revenue reached 111.3 billion yuan, a 47.4% increase, driven by strong performance in its electric vehicle and AI sectors [9] - The report highlights the strong fundamentals of Tencent, with a projected PE of 17X for 2025, and the potential of its gaming and AI products [3] Market Trends - The report indicates that the current valuation of internet companies is relatively low, with projected PE ratios for major players like Alibaba at 12 and Tencent at 17 [1][20] - The report suggests that the IP economy sector is experiencing high growth and strong catalysts, recommending attention to companies like Pop Mart and Bilibili [2][3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [5] Core Views - The company is expected to benefit from the growth in accessory and harness businesses, with semiconductor contributions providing additional growth. The accessory business is entering a replacement cycle, while the semiconductor segment is expanding into wafer-level packaging and panel-level packaging [3][4] - The financial forecasts have been adjusted upwards, with expected net profits for 2025-2027 revised to 1.5 billion, 2.2 billion, and 3.8 billion respectively, reflecting a strong growth trajectory [3] Financial Data Summary - For 2024, the main revenue is projected to be 5.8455 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.3%, with a net profit of 858.7 million yuan, up 29% [1] - In Q4 2024, the main revenue reached 1.76 billion yuan, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 7%, with a net profit of 650 million yuan, a significant quarter-on-quarter increase of 330% [1] - The first quarter of 2025 shows a revenue of 1.48 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22%, with a net profit of 240 million yuan, marking a substantial increase from the previous year [1] Business Segment Performance - The accessory business generated 1.84 billion yuan in revenue for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 70.45%, with a gross margin of 75.93% [2] - The harness connector ultrasonic equipment business achieved 0.81 billion yuan in revenue, a remarkable year-on-year increase of 352.37%, with a gross margin of 59.71% [2] - The semiconductor ultrasonic equipment segment reported 0.47 billion yuan in revenue, a year-on-year increase of 195.66%, with a gross margin of 56.65% [2] Valuation Metrics - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is 1.27 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 39.82 [4] - The company’s market capitalization is approximately 5.81 billion yuan, with a price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 3.46 [6][4] - The expected revenue growth rates for the years 2025 to 2027 are 47.43%, 41.89%, and 39.65% respectively [4]