海外行业报告 | 行业动态研究 谷歌 I/O 大会点评： 重构 AI 全栈生态，谷歌 AI 重回领跑者位置 事件： 5 月 21 日凌晨，谷歌 2025 年度 I/O 开发者大会的主题演讲展示了在基础 模型、多模态、AI 智能体、可穿戴设备等领域的最新成果。Gemini 2.5 Pro 模型实现多任务处理能力跃升，推理效率与准确性显著提升；智能眼镜 XR 发布，推动端侧设备场景落地；AI 驱动的搜索与网页浏览功能，通过生成 式 AI 实现从信息检索到智能交互的转变，标志着 AI 正加速向 "通用智 能体" 进化。 AI 渗透率加速提升，已成为驱动谷歌核心产品增长的重要引擎。谷歌 CEO Sundar Pichai 表示谷歌 AI 大模型及 API 月均处理 Token 量已从去年同 期的 9.7 万亿快速提升至 480 万亿，增幅达 48 倍；其搜索业务中 AI 综 述功能的月活跃用户规模达到 15 亿。谷歌 Lens 搜索次数的年增长率为 65%，今年已经完成超过 1000 亿次视觉搜索。 Gemini 系列模型持续迭代升级，加速向一站式 AI 服务平台演进。Gemini 2.5 在多模态理解、代码生成、长 ...

Investment Rating - Industry rating is Neutral (maintained rating) [1] Core Viewpoints - The basic chemical industry saw a slight increase in revenue in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 2.6%, reaching a total revenue of 22,285 billion yuan. However, profits faced pressure, with a net profit decrease of 5.7% to 1,211 billion yuan [4][13]. - In Q1 2025, the industry experienced a year-on-year revenue increase of 5.4%, totaling 5,345 billion yuan, while net profit rose by 10.6% to 374 billion yuan [6][10]. - The overall gross profit margin for the industry in 2024 was 12.8%, a decline of 0.7 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 5.6%, down 0.5 percentage points [4][13]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Profit Trends - In 2024, the basic chemical industry achieved a total operating revenue of 22,285 billion yuan, with a slight year-on-year increase of 2.6%. Operating profit was 1,564 billion yuan, down 4.1% year-on-year, and net profit attributable to shareholders was 1,211 billion yuan, down 5.7% [4][13]. - For Q1 2025, the industry reported operating revenue of 5,345 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.4%, and a net profit of 374 billion yuan, reflecting a 10.6% increase [6][10]. Profitability Metrics - The industry’s overall gross profit margin was 12.8% in 2024, a decrease of 0.7 percentage points from the previous year. The net profit margin stood at 5.6%, down 0.5 percentage points year-on-year [4][13]. - In Q1 2025, the net profit margin improved to 7.2%, with a year-on-year increase of 0.3 percentage points and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 4.7 percentage points [6][10]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on industries with stable demand and supply logic, such as refrigerants, phosphate fertilizers, and amino acids, while also considering sectors with stable supply and demand logic, including MDI and agricultural chemicals [8]. - It emphasizes the importance of identifying industries with marginal improvements in both supply and demand, such as organic silicon [8]. Construction and Fixed Assets - In Q1 2025, the growth rate of construction in progress fell into negative territory for the first time since 2018, indicating a shift in capital expenditure trends within the industry [7]. - The total fixed assets for the industry reached 13,979 billion yuan, reflecting an 11.9% year-on-year increase [7].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price not specified [5]. Core Views - The company reported a decline in revenue and net profit for Q1 2025, with revenue at 2.852 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 31.01%, and net profit at 85 million yuan, down 34.19% [1][2]. - The company is undergoing a comprehensive adjustment in response to market changes, focusing on high-end liquor while also emphasizing cost-effective products [3]. - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 9.910 billion yuan, 10.670 billion yuan, and 11.192 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth rates of 4.71%, 7.67%, and 4.89% respectively [3]. Financial Performance Summary - For Q1 2025, the company's gross margin was 10.44%, a slight decrease of 0.04 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 2.99%, down 0.15 percentage points [2]. - The company’s operating cash flow for Q1 2025 was 418 million yuan, a decrease of 1.95% year-on-year, indicating a relatively strong performance in cash flow management despite profit pressures [2]. - The projected net profit for 2025 is 1.301 billion yuan, reflecting a significant year-on-year increase of 192.79% [3]. Financial Data and Valuation - The company’s total revenue for 2023 is projected at 10.121 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 16.22%, followed by a decline in 2024 to 9.464 billion yuan [4]. - The estimated earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is 0.31 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 66.65 [4]. - The company’s total assets are projected to reach 7.636 billion yuan by 2025, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 61.55% [10].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [9] Core Views - The company achieved a record high revenue of 3.092 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 14.97%, but faced significant losses with a net profit attributable to shareholders of -266 million yuan, a decline of 504.18% [1][5] - The revenue growth in Q1 2025 was 20.82% year-on-year, reaching 820 million yuan, but the net profit continued to decline, indicating ongoing profitability challenges [1][2] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported a revenue of 3.092 billion yuan, a 14.97% increase from the previous year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was -266 million yuan, down 504.18% [1][7] - For Q1 2025, the company generated 820 million yuan in revenue, marking a 20.82% increase year-on-year, but the net profit remained negative at -81 million yuan [1][2] Business Development - The company has expanded its market share and improved production capacity, technology, and yield, contributing to the revenue increase [2][3] - The semiconductor wafer business saw a sales volume increase of 62.91% and revenue growth of 26.93%, reaching 1.906 billion yuan [3] - The RF chip business experienced a significant revenue increase of 115.08%, becoming a key driver of performance growth [3][4] Research and Innovation - The company invested 290 million yuan in R&D in 2024, accounting for 9.39% of revenue, focusing on high-value-added products and key technology breakthroughs [4] - The company developed 14 new products in the semiconductor wafer sector and achieved mass production of 72 new 12-inch products [4] Market Outlook - The global semiconductor market is recovering, driven by demand for memory and logic chips, as well as power semiconductors in electric vehicles and photovoltaics [4] - The company is building a "reservoir" capacity reserve system to meet the growing downstream demand in AI, electrification, and smart technology [4] Investment Forecast - Due to declining product prices impacting profitability, the profit forecast for 2025 and 2026 has been revised downwards, with expected net profits of 89 million yuan and 180 million yuan respectively [5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price not specified [5] Core Views - The company reported a decline in Q1 2025 with revenue, net profit attributable to the parent, and net profit excluding non-recurring items down by 31.01%, 34.19%, and 41.27% year-on-year, respectively [1] - The company is undergoing a comprehensive adjustment in response to market demand and channel changes, focusing on high-end liquor while also emphasizing cost-effective product layouts [3] - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 99.10 billion, 106.70 billion, and 111.92 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth of 4.71%, 7.67%, and 4.89%, respectively [3] Financial Performance Summary - In Q1 2025, the company's gross margin was 10.44%, with a slight decline of 0.04 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 2.99%, down 0.15 percentage points year-on-year [2] - The company reported operating cash flow of 418 million yuan in Q1 2025, a decrease of 1.95% year-on-year, indicating a relatively strong cash flow performance despite profit pressures [2] - The projected net profit for 2025 is 1.30 billion yuan, reflecting a significant year-on-year increase of 192.79% [4][3] Financial Data and Valuation - The company's revenue for 2023 is projected at 10,121.03 million yuan, with a growth rate of 16.22%, while the 2024 revenue is expected to decline by 6.49% to 9,464.48 million yuan [4] - The estimated earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is 0.31 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 66.65 [4] - The company's total assets are projected to reach 7,636.04 million yuan by 2025, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 61.55% [10]

行业报告 | 行业研究周报 半导体 证券研究报告 COMPUTEX 成功举办，持续关注 AI 催化及 2 季度细分板块业绩弹性 COMPUTEX成功举办：AI、数据中心和机器人为三大热点，芯片大厂百花齐放。2025 年台北国际电脑展于 5 月 20 日至 23 日台北南港展览馆举办。本届COMPUTEX 以"AI Next"为主题，聚焦AI、数据中心与机器人三大领域， 汇聚英伟达、英特尔、高通等近1400 家科技巨头。英伟达：推出推理性能提升1.5倍的 GB300 系统，开放NVLink 生态实现跨厂商硬件互联，并发布开源机器人平台 Isaac GR00T 及物理引擎 Newton。英特尔：发布 Xe2架构的锐炫 Pro GPU系列和可扩展的Gaudi 3 AI 加速器，并预热能效比领先的 Panther Lake 处理器。高通：重启数据中心CPU 业务，搭载 NVLink 技术强化AI 算力协同，骁龙 X 系列 PC 生态覆盖超 85 款设备。联发科：宣布首款 2nm 芯片2025 年 9 月流片，基于台积电 GAAFET 工艺实现晶体管密度提升 15%。Microchip：展示汽车辐射加热方案、工业 TS ...

策略报告 | 投资策略 "十五五"渐行渐近 证券研究报告 国常会通过《制造业绿色低碳发展行动方案（2025－2027年）》。5月23日国务 院总理李强5月23日主持召开国务院常务会议，审议通过《制造业绿色低碳发展 行动方案（2025－2027年）》，研究进一步健全横向生态保护补偿机制有关举措， 讨论《中华人民共和国食品安全法（修正草案）》。 特朗普税改法案在众议院通过。5月22日，当天众议院以215票赞成、214票反对 的微弱优势表决通过了特朗普的税改法案。所有民主党议员和两名共和党议员投 了反对票，另有一名共和党议员投弃权票。法案接下来将提交至共和党拥有微弱 多数优势的参议院审议。 国内外政策导向分析 上周（5.19-5.23）海外政策聚焦于特朗普税改法案在众议院通过, 法案接下来 将提交至共和党拥有微弱多数优势的参议院审议; 在各国经贸部长全力协调和共 同推动下，中国—东盟自贸区3.0版谈判全面完成，向签署升级议定书的目标又迈 出关键一步。 上周（5.19-5.23）国内政策主要聚焦于总书记对"十五五"规划编制工作作出 重要指示并于5月19-20日赴河南洛阳市考察调研；国常会通过《制造业绿色低 碳发展行动 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price indicating a potential return of over 20% within the next six months [8][19]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve revenue and profit growth from 2025 to 2027, with projected revenues of 150.81 billion, 162.88 billion, and 171.02 billion yuan respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 22%, 8%, and 5% [6]. - The company has a strong market position in the cinema industry, with a significant share of the top 100 box office cinemas and a robust recovery in ticket sales in early 2025 [2]. - The company is actively expanding into the trendy toy sector, enhancing its IP derivative business through strategic investments [5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported a revenue of 12.36 billion yuan, a decrease of 15.44% year-on-year, and a net loss of 940 million yuan [1]. - For Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 4.709 billion yuan, an increase of 23.23% year-on-year, and a net profit of 830 million yuan, a significant increase of 154.72% [1]. Cinema Operations - The company maintains a strong market share, with its single-screen revenue output nearly double the national average, and it holds 41 seats in the top 100 box office cinemas [2]. - The company has introduced innovative viewing experiences through its "Time Space" brand, which combines entertainment, social interaction, and consumption [2]. Film and Television Production - The film production and distribution segment generated 620 million yuan in revenue in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 85.49%, while the television segment saw a decline [3]. - Notable films released include "Grab the Doll" with a box office of 3.33 billion yuan and "Detective Chinatown 3" [3]. Gaming Business - The gaming segment reported a revenue of 580 million yuan in 2024, a growth of 54.71%, with a significant portion of revenue coming from overseas [4]. - The company plans to launch several classic IP games internationally in 2025 [4]. Trendy Toy Sector - The company is investing in the trendy toy market through a partnership with 52TOYS, acquiring a 7% stake to enhance its IP portfolio [5]. - 52TOYS is a leading brand in China's IP toy industry, with a revenue of approximately 630 million yuan in 2024 [5].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price not specified [7] Core Viewpoints - The company is leveraging synthetic biology to enhance the production of plant extracts, addressing key technological challenges in scaling natural product production [1] - The dual technology strategy of "natural extraction + biosynthesis" has been elevated to a strategic goal, with significant progress in the biosynthesis of natural sweeteners and polysaccharides [2] - The company has achieved breakthroughs in natural sweeteners and functional polysaccharides, including the mass production capability of steviol glycosides and the full synthetic pathway for monk fruit sweetener [3][4] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The plant extract industry in China entered a quality improvement phase in 2021, with technological innovations driving development [1] Company Developments - Since 2016, the company has collaborated with research institutions to develop biosynthesis technologies for natural sweeteners, resulting in the establishment of two R&D platforms [2] - The company has obtained 8 patents in synthetic biology and has a production capacity of over 1,000 tons annually, with an expected annual output value exceeding 1 billion yuan [2] Product Progress - The company has developed a high-value steviol glycoside, Reb M2, which is set to receive FDA GRAS certification by February 2025, allowing it to be marketed in the US [3] - The company is the first to achieve a fully synthetic pathway for monk fruit sweetener, addressing the limitations of natural sourcing [3] - A new functional polysaccharide, L-β-glucan, has been developed with various health benefits and is expected to receive FDA GRAS certification by 2025 [4] Financial Forecast & Investment Recommendations - The company has adjusted its revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 to 2.08 billion, 2.48 billion, and 2.99 billion yuan respectively, with net profits of 212.53 million, 288.09 million, and 395.93 million yuan [5] - The company is expected to maintain strong growth in the plant extraction and synthetic biology sectors, justifying the "Buy" rating [5]

Group 1: Key Insights on the Food and Beverage Industry - The liquor sector is focusing on cultivating new consumer bases among younger demographics, with a current PE-TTM of 19.52X, indicating a relatively low valuation compared to historical levels [3] - Pre-processed food categories are showing varied performance, with specific attention on themes such as cost control and new consumption trends [3] - Dairy products are expected to benefit from ongoing policies related to childbirth and milk powder subsidies, as well as rising beef prices [3] Group 2: Key Insights on Mining and Metals Industry - The company, a global metal mining giant, is expected to see significant revenue growth in 2024, with projected revenues of $4.479 billion, a year-on-year increase of 3.05% [4] - The Las Bambas mine is anticipated to contribute nearly 80% of the company's performance, with copper production expected to reach 322,900 tons in 2024 [4][29] - The company’s net profit is projected to increase dramatically to $162 million in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 1698.89% [4] Group 3: Key Insights on the Media and Entertainment Industry - The cinema business of the company is maintaining a strong market share, with a significant increase in box office revenue in Q1 2025, reaching $4.709 billion, a 23.23% year-on-year increase [8][20] - The company is innovating its operational strategies by launching a new brand that combines entertainment, social interaction, and consumption [21] - The film production segment is expected to drive revenue growth, with notable box office performances from key releases [22] Group 4: Key Insights on Chemical Industry - The current cycle in the chemical industry is nearing its end, with expectations for demand recovery in 2024 driven by infrastructure and export resilience [10] - The industry is shifting towards a regional cooperation model, focusing on stability and security in supply chains [10] - Investment opportunities are being identified in companies that focus on new material production and breakthroughs in supply chain efficiency [10]