Quantitative Models and Construction Methods - **Model Name**: Industry Allocation Model **Model Construction Idea**: This model aims to recommend industry sectors based on medium-term perspectives, focusing on sectors with potential for recovery or growth trends[2][3][10] **Model Construction Process**: The model identifies sectors with recovery potential ("困境反转型板块") and growth opportunities. It recommends sectors such as healthcare (恒生医疗), export-related consumer sectors (e.g., light industry and home appliances), and technology sectors (信创, communication, solid-state batteries). Additionally, it highlights sectors with ongoing upward trends, such as banking and gold[2][3][10] **Model Evaluation**: The model provides actionable insights for medium-term industry allocation, emphasizing sectors with recovery potential and growth trends[2][3][10] - **Model Name**: TWO BETA Model **Model Construction Idea**: This model focuses on identifying technology-related sectors with growth potential[2][3][10] **Model Construction Process**: The TWO BETA model recommends technology sectors, including 信创, communication, and solid-state batteries, based on their growth potential and market trends[2][3][10] **Model Evaluation**: The model effectively identifies technology sectors with strong growth potential, aligning with market trends[2][3][10] - **Model Name**: Timing System Model **Model Construction Idea**: This model evaluates market conditions by analyzing the distance between short-term and long-term moving averages to determine market trends[2][9][14] **Model Construction Process**: 1. Define the short-term moving average (20-day) and long-term moving average (120-day) for the Wind All A Index 2. Calculate the difference between the two moving averages: $ \text{Difference} = \text{20-day MA} - \text{120-day MA} $ - Latest values: 20-day MA = 4946, 120-day MA = 5088 - Difference = -2.80% (previous week: -3.63%) 3. Monitor the absolute value of the difference; when it falls below 3%, the market is considered to be in a consolidation phase[2][9][14] **Model Evaluation**: The model provides a clear signal for market consolidation, aiding in timing decisions[2][9][14] - **Model Name**: Position Management Model **Model Construction Idea**: This model determines the recommended equity allocation based on valuation levels and short-term market trends[3][10] **Model Construction Process**: 1. Assess valuation levels of the Wind All A Index: - PE ratio: 50th percentile (medium level) - PB ratio: 10th percentile (low level) 2. Combine valuation levels with short-term market trends to recommend a 60% equity allocation for absolute return products[3][10] **Model Evaluation**: The model provides a systematic approach to position management, balancing valuation and market trends[3][10] Backtesting Results of Models - **Industry Allocation Model**: No specific numerical backtesting results provided[2][3][10] - **TWO BETA Model**: No specific numerical backtesting results provided[2][3][10] - **Timing System Model**: - Latest moving average difference: -2.80% - Previous week difference: -3.63% - Absolute difference < 3%, indicating a consolidation phase[2][9][14] - **Position Management Model**: - Recommended equity allocation: 60%[3][10]

Group 1: Market Insights on April Exports - April exports and imports exceeded expectations, with exports increasing by 8.1% year-on-year, while imports decreased by 0.2%, indicating resilience in China's export sector [10][15] - The contribution of the United States to overall export growth significantly declined, while ASEAN showed recovery, and the EU and Japan remained stable, suggesting a continuation of "export grabbing" [15] - The performance of various product categories in April was mixed, with electronic information products declining, while resource exports generally improved [16][21] Group 2: Domestic Economic Indicators - April CPI remained negative at -0.1%, while PPI saw a wider decline of -2.7%, leading to an increased PPI-CPI gap [35][36] - The central bank's monetary policy report emphasized the need for flexible implementation of policies to support economic recovery and maintain bank health [41][42] - High-frequency indicators showed a decline in subway passenger volume in major cities, reflecting potential weaknesses in domestic consumption [47] Group 3: International Economic Developments - The May FOMC meeting maintained interest rates, with the committee noting increased risks of rising unemployment and inflation [3.2] - Ongoing geopolitical tensions, including the Russia-Ukraine conflict and Middle East tensions, could impact global economic stability [3.1][3.1.1] Group 4: Industry Allocation Recommendations - Investment strategies should focus on three main areas: breakthroughs in AI technology, valuation recovery in consumer stocks, and the rise of undervalued dividends [4] - The report highlights the importance of monitoring the AI industry's progress, as it significantly influences the performance of related sectors [4]

过去四个交易日（0506-0509 ）沪深 300 涨 2.00% ，建材（中信）涨 2.83%，其他专用材料、其他结构材料等子行业涨幅居前。个股中，金刚光 伏（+31.1% ），豪美新材（+19.3% ），北京利尔（+17.4% ），四通股份 （+16.3%），华立股份（+14.0%），涨幅居前。上周我们重点推荐组合的表 现：中材科技（+5.8%）、 三棵树(-1.5%)、西部水泥（-5.1%）、华新水泥 （+1.2%）、华润建材科技（+0.6%）、高争民爆(+2.4%)。 行业报告 | 行业研究周报 建筑材料 证券研究报告 政策协同发力，基本面有望逐步恢复，关注民爆机会 行情回顾 中材科技、高争民爆、三棵树、西部水泥、华新水泥、华润建材科技 政策协同发力，基本面有望逐步恢复，关注民爆机会 据 Wind，0503-0509 一周，30 个大中城市商品房销售面积 137.28 万平 米，同比+13.95%。上周国新办举行新闻发布会，会上一行两局宣布降准、 降息及稳楼市等措施，其中包括降准 0.5 个百分点、下调政策利率 0.1 个 百分点及降低个人住房公积金贷款利率 0.25 个百分点等。此前我们在周报 中曾 ...

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: Fund Position Estimation Model - **Model Construction Idea**: The model aims to estimate the daily stock positions of public funds by simulating their complete stock holdings based on disclosed top 10 heavy holdings and other related data[8][9][10] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. Use quarterly fund reports to obtain the top 10 heavy holdings and combine this with the top 10 shareholders' information from listed companies[9] 2. Simulate the complete stock holdings by estimating the remaining non-heavy holdings based on the assumption that the types of stocks held in non-heavy positions remain unchanged between two periods, with only the weights adjusted proportionally[10] 3. At the end of January, April, August, and October each year, simulate the fund holdings, with August data being the actual semi-annual report holdings[12] 4. Split the fund holdings into large-cap and small-cap components and use weighted least squares to estimate the fund's allocation to large-cap and small-cap indices at each time point[12] 5. Monitor daily fund positions and analyze average style changes across dimensions such as large/small-cap allocation, market capitalization exposure, and industry allocation[12] - **Model Evaluation**: The model provides a detailed and dynamic monitoring of fund positions, enabling insights into style shifts and allocation trends[12] --- Backtesting Results of Models 1. Fund Position Estimation Model - **Stock Position Median**: - Ordinary equity funds: 88.30% - Partial equity hybrid funds: 85.28%[4][15] - **Large-Cap Allocation**: - Ordinary equity funds: 41.4% - Partial equity hybrid funds: 34.3%[14] - **Small-Cap Allocation**: - Ordinary equity funds: 46.9% - Partial equity hybrid funds: 50.9%[14] - **Weekly Changes in Large-Cap Allocation**: - Ordinary equity funds: -0.67% - Partial equity hybrid funds: -2.01%[15] - **Weekly Changes in Small-Cap Allocation**: - Ordinary equity funds: -0.48% - Partial equity hybrid funds: +0.21%[15] - **Percentile of Current Position Estimates (2016-Present)**: - Ordinary equity funds: 49.38% - Partial equity hybrid funds: 52.69%[15] --- Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods 1. Factor Name: Large-Cap and Small-Cap Allocation Factors - **Factor Construction Idea**: These factors aim to quantify the allocation of public funds to large-cap and small-cap stocks, reflecting their style preferences and market exposure[12] - **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Split the simulated fund holdings into large-cap and small-cap components[12] 2. Use the daily returns of the fund, large-cap index, and small-cap index to estimate the allocation weights through weighted least squares regression[12] 3. Calculate the allocation factors dynamically to monitor changes in fund style preferences over time[12] - **Factor Evaluation**: These factors effectively capture the dynamic allocation preferences of funds, providing valuable insights into their market positioning and style shifts[12] --- Backtesting Results of Factors 1. Large-Cap and Small-Cap Allocation Factors - **Large-Cap Allocation**: - Ordinary equity funds: 41.4% - Partial equity hybrid funds: 34.3%[14] - **Small-Cap Allocation**: - Ordinary equity funds: 46.9% - Partial equity hybrid funds: 50.9%[14] - **Weekly Changes in Large-Cap Allocation**: - Ordinary equity funds: -0.67% - Partial equity hybrid funds: -2.01%[15] - **Weekly Changes in Small-Cap Allocation**: - Ordinary equity funds: -0.48% - Partial equity hybrid funds: +0.21%[15]

Industry Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Outperform the Market" [1] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights the growth potential of Longxin General's self-owned brand, VOGE, in international markets, driven by product strength, cost performance, and brand recognition [3][21] - The company has successfully developed popular models such as CU525 and DS525, with a comprehensive product range covering various motorcycle categories [3][27] - The European market presents high value, with a significant proportion of motorcycle consumption in higher displacement categories, indicating an opportunity for Chinese brands to capture market share due to their cost advantages [28][35] Company Overview - Longxin General has two main business segments: motorcycles, contributing over 70% of revenue, and general machinery, contributing around 20% [2] - The motorcycle business includes the VOGE brand, non-road sports motorcycles, and collaborations with BMW [2] Financial Performance - From 2021 to 2024, the motorcycle business's revenue contribution increased from 57.9% to 75.4%, with total revenue growing from 130.58 billion to 168.22 billion [15][20] - The company reported a significant increase in net profit, with a year-on-year growth of 93% in 2024, attributed to revenue growth and reduced impairment losses [20][27] Strategic Developments - The integration of Longxin General and Zongshen New Manufacturing is expected to enhance collaboration in supply chain, engine technology, and market channels [5][79] - The company has a strong cash position, with 77 billion in cash as of Q1 2025, providing a solid foundation for future growth and potential dividend increases [4][68] Market Dynamics - The report notes a trend of consumption downgrade in Europe, where consumers are increasingly opting for lower-priced brands, benefiting Longxin General's competitive pricing strategy [35][36] - The company's marketing efforts and extensive distribution network in Europe have led to increased brand recognition, particularly in Italy and Spain [52][53]

行业报告 | 行业专题研究 2025 年 05 月 10 日 | 投资评级 | | | --- | --- | | 行业评级 | 强于大市(维持评级) | | 上次评级 | 强于大市 | 作者 缪欣君 分析师 SAC 执业证书编号：S1110517080003 miaoxinjun@tfzq.com 刘鉴 分析师 SAC 执业证书编号：S1110525040001 liujianb@tfzq.com 行业走势图 -21% -10% 1% 12% 23% 34% 45% 2024-05 2024-09 2025-01 计算机 沪深300 资料来源：聚源数据 相关报告 1 《计算机-行业专题研究:自主芯片+ 底层模型+TO B 生态共筑阿里 AI 云生 态领军地位》 2025-04-08 2 《计算机-行业深度研究:AI+医疗投资 框架》 2025-03-05 3 《计算机-行业点评:AI 证券，计算机 AI 应用优质落地场景》 2025-02-25 计算机 证券研究报告 计算机一季报分析：算力和信创景气度有望再上一个 台阶，关注 SaaS 类公司 Agent 放量进度 信创：龙芯中科、中国软件、中国长城、诚迈科 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a relative return of over 20% within the next six months [6][17]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 1.3 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 7%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 0.28 billion, an increase of 18% year-on-year [1]. - The company is actively implementing the "236 Project" development strategy, which focuses on two major projects, three clusters, and six high-quality initiatives to enhance its position as a world-class business education platform [4]. - The company has begun to deepen its AI applications, launching the "AI Sales Master" product, which aims to enhance talent training through AI-driven assessments and insights [2][3]. Financial Performance - The company achieved a gross margin of 74%, up by 2 percentage points year-on-year, and a net margin of 22%, up by 4 percentage points year-on-year [1]. - The net cash flow from operating activities was -0.5 billion, a significant decline of 496% year-on-year, primarily due to lower sales collections and increased employee compensation payments [1]. - The company expects net profits attributable to the parent company for 2025-2027 to be 3.0 billion, 3.4 billion, and 3.8 billion respectively, with EPS projected at 2.54, 2.84, and 3.22 yuan [5][10]. Market Position - The company has a total market capitalization of approximately 4.42 billion, with a current price of 37.08 yuan per share [6]. - The company’s total assets are projected to grow from 2,096.48 million in 2023 to 3,002.20 million by 2027 [11][12].

Group 1 - The report highlights that in April, the newly established equity public funds reached 57.048 billion units, an increase of 6.959 billion units compared to the previous month, marking a 94.59% percentile over the past three years [8][9][11] - The report indicates that the issuance of passive equity funds has significantly contributed to the market, with a new issuance of 45.095 billion units in April, up 7.390 billion units from the previous month [11][12] - The report notes that the net subscription of stock ETFs in April was 197.302 billion yuan, a substantial increase from the previous month, indicating a shift in investor sentiment towards equity markets [16][20] Group 2 - The report states that the average position of private equity funds fell to 56.56% in March, down 1.75 percentage points from February, reflecting a cautious sentiment among investors [30] - The report mentions that the monthly average trading volume of northbound funds decreased to 152.208 billion yuan in April, a decline of 18.98% from the previous month, indicating a cautious approach from foreign investors [32][37] - The report highlights that the total margin trading balance decreased by 6.89% in April, with a net outflow of 131.535 billion yuan, suggesting reduced trading activity and a shift towards risk aversion [34][36] Group 3 - The report indicates that insurance funds have reduced their equity investment risk factor by 10%, aiming to increase their investment in A-shares to 30% of new premiums starting in 2025 [44][48] - The report notes that the issuance of wealth management products in April was 5,993, with an increase of 22.06% in the number of products reaching maturity, reflecting a positive trend in the market [49][51] - The report states that the net reduction in industrial capital in April was significantly narrowed to 370 million yuan, indicating a potential stabilization in corporate investment behavior [34][38]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price not specified [6]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 4.589 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 30.04%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 453 million yuan, up 31.59% year-on-year [1]. - In Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 933 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 25.07%, but a net profit decline of 22.53% year-on-year to 48 million yuan [1]. - The increase in inventory levels is a concern, with inventory rising to 884 million yuan at the beginning of 2024 from 673 million yuan at the start of the year, and further increasing to 1.135 billion yuan in Q1 2025 [2]. - The company's gross margin for 2024 was 28.75%, down 3.6 percentage points from 2023, primarily due to changes in accounting policies [3]. - The company is well-positioned to benefit from the AI wave and the growing demand for liquid cooling solutions, with a cumulative delivery of 1.2 GW in the liquid cooling sector by March 2025 [4]. - The company has strong domestic partnerships with major clients like Huawei and Tencent, and is gradually making inroads into overseas markets, including a collaboration with Intel [5]. Financial Summary - The company forecasts a net profit of 640 million yuan for 2025, down from a previous estimate of 710 million yuan, with projected profits of 850 million yuan in 2026 and 1.08 billion yuan in 2027 [6]. - Revenue is expected to grow from 6.191 billion yuan in 2025 to 10.130 billion yuan in 2027, with corresponding growth rates of 34.93% and 25.78% [12]. - The company's gross margin is projected to stabilize around 29.06% in 2025, with a slight increase to 29.18% in 2026 [14].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price set for the next six months [6][18]. Core Viewpoints - The company reported a significant increase in contract liabilities by 58% year-to-date, indicating strong future revenue potential. The net cash flow from operating activities improved significantly compared to the previous year [1]. - The company is actively expanding its military trade market, which is expected to enhance its growth prospects. The integration of research, manufacturing, and maintenance capabilities is also being advanced [2]. - The company has adjusted its fundraising plans, extending the validity of its private placement decisions by 12 months and modifying the fundraising targets [3]. Financial Performance Summary - For Q1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 5.83 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 38.6%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 430 million yuan, down 39.9% year-on-year. The gross margin was 12.6%, an increase of 0.55 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin was 7.4%, a decrease of 0.14 percentage points year-on-year [1]. - The company forecasts net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to be 3.83 billion yuan, 4.56 billion yuan, and 5.38 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 35.04, 29.40, and 24.91 [4][12]. Financial Data and Valuation - The company’s total revenue is projected to grow from 46.25 billion yuan in 2023 to 66.20 billion yuan in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate of approximately 15.75% [5][12]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to increase from 1.09 yuan in 2023 to 1.95 yuan in 2027, reflecting a positive growth trajectory [5][12]. - The company maintains a strong market position with a total market capitalization of approximately 134.09 billion yuan and a price-to-book ratio of 8.88 [7].