Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Xiaomi Group with a target price of 76.88 HKD, indicating an expected return of over 20% within the next six months [6][5]. Core Insights - Xiaomi's smartphone shipments in China have returned to the top position, with a total of 13.3 million units shipped in Q1 2025, representing a 40% year-on-year growth and capturing a 19% market share [1]. - The AIoT segment is expected to see a revenue increase of 52% year-on-year to 30.93 billion CNY in Q1 2025, with a gross margin projected to rise to 24.1% [2]. - The YU7 model is anticipated to launch between June and July 2025, with multiple range options, potentially replicating the sales success of the SU7 model [2]. - Xiaomi's automotive production capacity is set to expand, with the Beijing factory expected to start operations mid-year, contributing to a total capacity of 300,000 vehicles [3]. - The report projects Xiaomi's total revenue for 2025 and 2026 to be 471.8 billion CNY and 679.7 billion CNY respectively, with net profit estimates adjusted to 42.9 billion CNY and 85.5 billion CNY [4]. Summary by Sections Smartphone Business - Xiaomi's smartphone business is expected to grow by 8% year-on-year in Q1 2025, reaching 50.42 billion CNY with a gross margin of 12.5% [1]. AIoT Segment - The AIoT segment is projected to grow significantly, with a revenue forecast of 30.93 billion CNY in Q1 2025 and a gross margin increase to 24.1% [2]. Automotive Business - The SU7 model's delivery reached 76,000 units in Q1 2025, generating an estimated revenue of 18.8 billion CNY with a gross margin of 22.5% [3]. - The forecast for total automotive shipments in 2025 has been raised to 400,000 units [3]. Financial Projections - The report revises total revenue forecasts for 2025 and 2026 to 471.8 billion CNY and 679.7 billion CNY, respectively, with adjusted net profit estimates of 42.9 billion CNY and 85.5 billion CNY [4][5].

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Outperform the market (maintained rating) [6] Core Viewpoints - The construction sector has outperformed the market recently, with a 2.23% increase compared to the 2.09% rise in the CSI 300 index, indicating a positive trend in the industry [1] - Significant price increases in cellulose-related products have been observed, highlighting the potential for domestic substitution to drive performance and valuation catalysts, with a strong recommendation for Sanwei Chemical [1][24] - The issuance of special bonds remains high, suggesting a focus on the conversion rhythm of physical construction work in the future [4] - The year 2025 is anticipated to be a pivotal year for coal chemical projects, likely receiving additional policy support [1] Summary by Sections 1. Progress of Domestic Substitution for Cellulose Products - Acetate cellulose (CA) is primarily used in tobacco filters, with China consuming approximately 300,000 tons annually, and Sichuan Pushi holding a leading position in production [2] - The prices of CAB (cellulose acetate butyrate) and CAP (cellulose acetate propionate) have significantly increased, with domestic CAB prices rising to 90,000-115,000 RMB/ton from 58,000 RMB/ton earlier in the year [2][24] - Sanwei Chemical is enhancing its production capacity for cellulose and its derivatives, with a projected annual capacity of 15,000 tons expected to be operational by December 2025 [3][24] 2. Special Bond Issuance and Infrastructure Work - In April 2025, new local special bonds totaled 230.144 billion RMB, with a cumulative issuance of 1.1904 trillion RMB from January to April, marking a year-on-year increase of 467.9 billion RMB [4][29] - The cement shipment rate was reported at 48.07%, indicating a slight decrease, while the asphalt plant operating rate was 28.8%, showing a slight increase [4][29] 3. Market Review - The construction index rose by 2.23% during the week of May 5-9, with notable gains in the building decoration and design sectors, which increased by 5.91% and 4.43% respectively [5][36] - Top-performing stocks included Shanshui Bide (+28.1%) and ST Saiwei (+21.7%) [5][36] 4. Investment Recommendations - Focus on traditional construction blue-chip stocks, particularly in infrastructure sectors such as water conservancy, railways, and aviation, with recommendations for companies like Sichuan Road and Bridge, Zhejiang Communications, and Anhui Construction [41] - Emphasis on cyclical opportunities in the construction sector, with a positive outlook for companies involved in coal chemical projects, particularly Sanwei Chemical and China Chemical [42]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price not specified [5] Core Views - The company benefits from the recent demand for outdoor and nylon products, with a focus on expanding production capacity in Vietnam [2][3] - The company has reported a revenue of 1.5 billion yuan for Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 0.4%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 160 million yuan, up 9% year-on-year [1] - The average selling price of nylon filament decreased by 8.5% year-on-year, attributed to a decline in raw material prices [1] Financial Performance - The company achieved a gross margin of 22%, a decrease of 1 percentage point year-on-year, and a net profit margin of 11%, an increase of 1 percentage point year-on-year [1] - The company’s main products include nylon filament, with sales of 54,000 tons and an average price of 21,000 yuan per ton [1] - The company has adjusted its profit forecast, expecting net profits of 860 million, 1.1 billion, and 1.37 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [4] Production Capacity and Projects - The company has launched projects for differentiated recycled nylon filament and PA66 differentiated nylon filament in Jiangsu, with production expected to yield good results in 2024 [2] - A new production base is being established in Vietnam with a total investment of no more than 100 million USD, aimed at optimizing the global supply chain [3] Market Trends - The outdoor trend is expected to drive demand for nylon products, which are widely used in various clothing and outdoor gear [2] - The company has established raw material recycling channels to ensure the supply of recycled nylon materials, with plans to expand the range of raw materials as technology advances [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price not specified [5][4] Core Views - The company benefits from the recent demand for outdoor and nylon products, with a focus on expanding production capacity in Vietnam [2][3] - The company has reported a revenue of 1.5 billion yuan for Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 0.4%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 160 million yuan, up 9% year-on-year [1] - The average selling price of nylon filament decreased by 8.5% year-on-year, attributed to a decline in raw material prices [1] Financial Performance - The gross margin stands at 22%, a decrease of 1 percentage point year-on-year, while the net margin is 11%, an increase of 1 percentage point year-on-year [1] - The company has adjusted its profit forecast, expecting net profits of 860 million, 1.1 billion, and 1.37 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [4] - Earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 0.97, 1.24, and 1.54 yuan for the same years [4] Production Capacity and Projects - The company has launched a 100,000-ton differentiated recycled nylon filament project and a 60,000-ton PA66 differentiated nylon filament project in Jiangsu, which are expected to yield good results in 2024 [2] - A new production base is being established in Vietnam with a total investment of no more than 100 million USD, aimed at optimizing the global supply chain [3] Market Position and Product Development - The company has established raw material recycling channels to ensure the supply of recycled nylon, with ongoing improvements in product quality and customer base expansion [3] - The company’s nylon 66 products are recognized for their excellent performance in various applications, including leisure sports and outdoor clothing [3]

金融工程 | 金工定期报告 金融工程 证券研究报告 2025 年 05 月 11 日 量化择时周报：重大事件落地前维持中性仓位 重大事件落地前维持中性仓位 上周周报(20250505)认为：在风险偏好承压叠加市场格局触发下行趋势， 全 A 指数的 30 日均线构成压力位，但考虑到估值不高，建议在压力位突 破前维持中性仓位。最终 wind 全 A 周二突破 30 日均线，随后迎来上涨。 市值维度上，上周代表小市值股票的中证 2000 上涨 3.58%，中盘股中证 500 上涨 1.6%，沪深 300 上涨 2%，上证 50 上涨 1.93%;上周中信一级行业中， 表现较强行业包括国防军工、通信，国防军工上涨 6.44%，消费者服务、房 地产表现较弱，消费者服务微涨 0.3%。上周成交活跃度上，军工和通信资 金流入明显。 从择时体系来看，我们定义的用来区别市场整体环境的 wind 全 A 长期均 线（120 日）和短期均线（20 日）的距离开始收窄，最新数据显示 20 日 线收于 4946，120 日线收于 5088 点，短期均线继续位于长线均线之下， 两线差值由上周的-3.63%缩小至-2.80%，距离绝对值开 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 11.59 CNY, while the current price is 8.79 CNY [6]. Core Views - The company has significant growth potential driven by its chemical business, which serves as a stabilizing force for performance and a catalyst for stock price appreciation [1][14]. - The acquisition of Nuoao Chemical has substantially improved the company's financials, transitioning it from a pure engineering firm to a dual-driven model of "engineering + chemicals" [14]. - The company is the largest producer of n-propanol in China, with a production capacity of 100,000 tons/year, which allows it to benefit from price increases in chemical products [1][22]. Summary by Sections Chemical Industry - The chemical segment is expected to contribute significantly to revenue, with n-propanol sales projected to account for 55% of total revenue by 2024 [1][14]. - The company has a flexible production line that can switch raw materials to produce higher-margin products, mitigating the impact of price fluctuations [1][26]. Engineering Business - The company leads in sulfur recovery device contracts, with a total of 240 sets designed and constructed, amounting to a capacity of 12.83 million tons/year [2]. - Significant contracts, such as the 1.307 billion CNY order from Beifang Huajin, are expected to lead to concentrated revenue recognition in 2025 [2]. Financial Performance - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 260 million CNY for 2024, with a dividend payout ratio of 98.8%, resulting in a dividend yield of 4.6% [3][24]. - As of Q1 2025, the company holds 1.8 billion CNY in cash with a low debt ratio of 17.85%, indicating a strong financial safety margin [3][24]. Future Growth Potential - The company is expanding its high-end materials projects, with new capacities for isooctanoic acid and cellulose derivatives expected to contribute to revenue growth [4]. - Profit forecasts for 2025-2027 are 3.8 billion CNY, 4.9 billion CNY, and 6.0 billion CNY respectively, indicating a positive growth trajectory [4].

Industry Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform" [2] Core Insights - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of the coal industry from a global energy perspective, highlighting the interactions between China's coal balance and the ex-China balance, the historical linkage between oil and coal, and the impact of energy transitions in Europe and Asia [5][10][25][36] Summary by Sections Global Coal Balance and China's Interaction - The coal balances of China and ex-China have been interacting significantly post the Russia-Ukraine conflict, with ex-China balance dominating from 2021 to 2022 due to the European energy crisis and rising natural gas prices, leading to a rebound in European coal imports [10] - From 2023 to 2024, China's coal balance regained dominance, with coal imports increasing from 290 million tons in 2022 to 540 million tons in 2024, absorbing excess supply from ex-China [10] Global Energy Structure and Coal Market Overview - In 2023, coal, oil, and natural gas accounted for 26%, 32%, and 23% of global primary energy consumption, respectively, while renewable energy made up 8% [13] - The trend indicates a decarbonization process, with coal's share declining in developed regions but increasing in other countries [13] Consumer Countries - Europe - Europe's coal and natural gas shares in the power generation mix are expected to decline, with coal generation projected to drop to 260 TWh in 2024, a 2.2% decrease year-on-year [25] - The report estimates that European coal imports will continue to decrease, with a forecast of 10.774 million tons in 2024, down 3,179 million tons from the previous year [29] Consumer Countries - India - India's total electricity generation is expected to grow, with coal maintaining a dominant share of approximately 74% in the energy mix [39] - Coal production in India is projected to reach 103.904 million tons in 2024, with a growth rate of 7% [43] Consumer Countries - Southeast Asia - Southeast Asia is identified as a major driver of coal demand, with coal accounting for nearly 80% of the region's energy needs since 2010 [52] - The report anticipates a 1.7 million ton increase in coal imports in Southeast Asia by 2025, driven by recovering demand [53] Producer Countries - Indonesia - Indonesia's coal production is projected to reach 786.456 million tons in 2025, with a significant portion allocated for export [67] - The report highlights that Indonesia's domestic coal demand is primarily driven by metallurgical coal, which may impact the export of thermal coal [69] Producer Countries - Australia - Australia's coal production is expected to remain stable, with a projected output of 558.474 million tons in 2025 [80] - The report notes that Australia is a key player in global coal expansion, with 62% of new projects aimed at export [81] Producer Countries - Russia - Russia's coal exports are anticipated to decrease by approximately 12 million tons in 2025 due to sanctions and competitive disadvantages [83] - The report indicates that Russia's coal production is heavily influenced by domestic consumption and export demand dynamics [88] Producer Countries - United States - The U.S. coal production is projected to decline to 496.784 million tons in 2025, reflecting a decrease in domestic demand [104] - The report suggests that U.S. coal exports may remain stable, particularly for metallurgical coal, despite overall production declines [107]

Industry Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Outperform the Market" [1] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights the growth potential of Longxin General's self-owned brand, VOGE, in international markets, driven by product strength, cost performance, and brand recognition [3][21] - The company has successfully developed popular models such as CU525 and DS525, with a strong presence in the European market where high displacement motorcycles are in demand [3][28] - The report emphasizes the company's robust cash flow and the complete digestion of impairment pressures, which positions it well for future growth and potential dividend increases [4][68] Company Overview - Longxin General has two main business segments: motorcycles, contributing over 70% of revenue, and general machinery, contributing around 20% [2] - The motorcycle segment includes various brands and products, with a focus on high-displacement models [2][27] Financial Performance - From 2021 to 2024, the motorcycle business's revenue contribution increased from 57.9% to 75.4%, with total revenue growing from 130.58 billion to 168.22 billion [15][20] - The net profit for 2024 is projected to be 11.2 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 93% [20] Market Dynamics - The European motorcycle market is characterized by a high proportion of high-displacement models, with 60.9% of motorcycle consumption in Italy being over 250cc in 2024 [28] - The trend of consumer downgrading in Europe is expected to benefit Chinese brands like VOGE, which offer higher cost performance compared to Japanese and European competitors [35][36] Strategic Developments - The integration of Longxin General and Zongshen New Manufacturing is expected to enhance collaboration in supply chain, engine technology, and market channels [5][79] - The company has established a strong marketing presence in Europe, with 1,165 overseas outlets, including 876 in Europe, enhancing brand recognition [52]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is maintained as "Outperform the Market" [5] Core Viewpoints - The construction materials sector is expected to gradually recover due to policy support and improving fundamentals, with a focus on opportunities in the civil explosives sector [2][3] - Recent data shows a 13.95% year-on-year increase in the sales area of commercial housing in 30 major cities, indicating a potential recovery in the real estate market [2][15] - The cement sector has experienced a recent price correction, primarily due to underwhelming price performance in April, but there is a consensus on maintaining ecological balance, which may lead to improved supply coordination [2][17] Summary by Sections Market Review - From May 6 to May 9, the CSI 300 index rose by 2.00%, while the construction materials sector (CITIC) increased by 2.83% [12] - Notable stock performances included Jingang Photovoltaic (+31.1%) and Haomei New Materials (+19.3%) [12] Recent Tracking of Key Sub-sectors - Cement: National cement market prices fell by 1.2% week-on-week, with average shipment rates around 48% [17] - Glass: The price of photovoltaic glass remained stable, while float glass prices decreased slightly [17] - Fiberglass: Prices for non-alkali yarn remained stable, with production capacity holding steady [18] Focus on Key Recommendations - Recommended stocks include China National Materials, Gaozheng Civil Explosives, Sankeshu, Western Cement, Huaxin Cement, and China Resources Cement Technology [4][18] - The civil explosives industry is expected to benefit from policies like the Western Development and the Belt and Road Initiative, with a projected increase in demand [3][18]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 11.59 CNY, while the current price is 8.79 CNY [6]. Core Views - The company has significant growth potential driven by its chemical business, which serves as a stabilizing force for performance and a catalyst for stock price appreciation [1][14]. - The acquisition of Nuoao Chemical has substantially improved the company's financials, transitioning it from a pure engineering firm to a dual-driven model of "engineering + chemicals" [14]. - The company is the largest producer of n-propanol in China, with a production capacity of 100,000 tons/year, which allows it to benefit from price increases in chemical products [22][36]. Summary by Sections Chemical Industry - The chemical segment is expected to contribute significantly to revenue, with n-propanol sales projected to account for 55% of total revenue by 2024 [1][14]. - The company has a flexible production line that can switch raw materials to produce higher-margin products, mitigating the impact of price fluctuations [1][26]. Engineering Business - The company leads in sulfur recovery device contracts, with a total of 240 sets designed and constructed, amounting to a capacity of 12.83 million tons/year [2]. - Significant projects like the Luyou Luyuan project, with a total investment of 24.5 billion CNY, are expected to enhance revenue recognition in 2025 [2]. Financial Performance - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 260 million CNY for 2024, with a dividend payout ratio of 98.8%, resulting in a dividend yield of 4.6% [3][24]. - The company has a strong cash position, with total cash of 1.8 billion CNY and a low debt ratio of 17.85%, indicating a high safety margin [3][24]. Future Growth Potential - The company is expanding its production capacity with new projects in high-end materials, including 50,000 tons/year of iso-octanoic acid and 15,000 tons/year of cellulose [4]. - Profit forecasts for 2025-2027 are 378 million CNY, 490 million CNY, and 600 million CNY respectively, indicating strong growth potential [4].