Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods Factor Name: bp - **Construction Idea**: Represents the valuation level of a stock by comparing its book value to its market value [13] - **Construction Process**: Calculated as: $ bp = \frac{\text{Current Net Asset}}{\text{Current Total Market Value}} $ [13] Factor Name: bp three-year percentile - **Construction Idea**: Measures the relative valuation of a stock over the past three years [13] - **Construction Process**: Represents the percentile rank of the current bp value within the last three years [13] Factor Name: Quarterly ep - **Construction Idea**: Evaluates profitability by comparing quarterly net profit to net assets [13] - **Construction Process**: Calculated as: $ \text{Quarterly ep} = \frac{\text{Quarterly Net Profit}}{\text{Net Assets}} $ [13] Factor Name: Quarterly ep one-year percentile - **Construction Idea**: Tracks the relative profitability of a stock over the past year [13] - **Construction Process**: Represents the percentile rank of the current quarterly ep value within the last year [13] Factor Name: Quarterly sp - **Construction Idea**: Measures operational efficiency by comparing quarterly revenue to net assets [13] - **Construction Process**: Calculated as: $ \text{Quarterly sp} = \frac{\text{Quarterly Revenue}}{\text{Net Assets}} $ [13] Factor Name: Quarterly sp one-year percentile - **Construction Idea**: Tracks the relative operational efficiency of a stock over the past year [13] - **Construction Process**: Represents the percentile rank of the current quarterly sp value within the last year [13] Factor Name: Quarterly net profit YoY growth - **Construction Idea**: Measures the growth rate of quarterly net profit compared to the same period last year [13] - **Construction Process**: Calculated as: $ \text{Quarterly Net Profit YoY Growth} = \frac{\text{Current Quarter Net Profit} - \text{Last Year Same Quarter Net Profit}}{\text{Last Year Same Quarter Net Profit}} $ [13] Factor Name: Standardized unexpected earnings - **Construction Idea**: Quantifies the deviation of current earnings from expected levels based on historical trends [13] - **Construction Process**: Calculated as: $ \text{Standardized Unexpected Earnings} = \frac{\text{Current Quarter Net Profit} - (\text{Last Year Same Quarter Net Profit} + \text{Average YoY Growth of Last 8 Quarters})}{\text{Standard Deviation of YoY Growth of Last 8 Quarters}} $ [13] Factor Name: Dividend yield - **Construction Idea**: Measures the return to shareholders through dividends relative to the stock's market value [13] - **Construction Process**: Calculated as: $ \text{Dividend Yield} = \frac{\text{Last Year Dividend}}{\text{Current Market Value}} $ [13] --- Factor Backtesting Results IC Performance - **bp**: Weekly IC = 7.22%, Monthly IC = 3.46%, Yearly IC = 1.87%, Historical IC = 2.34% [9] - **bp three-year percentile**: Weekly IC = -1.28%, Monthly IC = 1.67%, Yearly IC = 2.48%, Historical IC = 1.68% [9] - **Quarterly ep**: Weekly IC = 6.27%, Monthly IC = 0.71%, Yearly IC = -0.44%, Historical IC = 1.09% [9] - **Quarterly ep one-year percentile**: Weekly IC = 7.04%, Monthly IC = 2.84%, Yearly IC = 0.95%, Historical IC = 1.72% [9] - **Quarterly sp**: Weekly IC = 2.97%, Monthly IC = 0.68%, Yearly IC = 0.50%, Historical IC = 0.72% [9] - **Quarterly sp one-year percentile**: Weekly IC = -1.88%, Monthly IC = 2.56%, Yearly IC = 2.85%, Historical IC = 1.83% [9] - **Quarterly net profit YoY growth**: Weekly IC = 7.35%, Monthly IC = 2.60%, Yearly IC = 0.60%, Historical IC = 1.28% [9] - **Standardized unexpected earnings**: Weekly IC = 7.52%, Monthly IC = 3.04%, Yearly IC = 0.60%, Historical IC = 0.97% [9] - **Dividend yield**: Weekly IC = 3.43%, Monthly IC = 0.78%, Yearly IC = -0.36%, Historical IC = 0.61% [9] Long-only Portfolio Performance - **bp**: Weekly Excess Return = 0.39%, Monthly Excess Return = 0.53%, Yearly Excess Return = 1.50%, Historical Cumulative Excess Return = 31.88% [11] - **bp three-year percentile**: Weekly Excess Return = -0.16%, Monthly Excess Return = -1.08%, Yearly Excess Return = 0.42%, Historical Cumulative Excess Return = -2.91% [11] - **Quarterly ep**: Weekly Excess Return = 0.56%, Monthly Excess Return = 1.22%, Yearly Excess Return = 3.02%, Historical Cumulative Excess Return = 30.83% [11] - **Quarterly ep one-year percentile**: Weekly Excess Return = 0.24%, Monthly Excess Return = 0.71%, Yearly Excess Return = 3.76%, Historical Cumulative Excess Return = 32.90% [11] - **Quarterly sp**: Weekly Excess Return = -0.25%, Monthly Excess Return = 0.10%, Yearly Excess Return = 1.18%, Historical Cumulative Excess Return = -2.98% [11] - **Quarterly sp one-year percentile**: Weekly Excess Return = -0.43%, Monthly Excess Return = 0.20%, Yearly Excess Return = 8.26%, Historical Cumulative Excess Return = -0.57% [11] - **Quarterly net profit YoY growth**: Weekly Excess Return = 0.47%, Monthly Excess Return = 1.56%, Yearly Excess Return = 9.60%, Historical Cumulative Excess Return = 36.36% [11] - **Standardized unexpected earnings**: Weekly Excess Return = 0.57%, Monthly Excess Return = 0.97%, Yearly Excess Return = -3.21%, Historical Cumulative Excess Return = 7.84% [11] - **Dividend yield**: Weekly Excess Return = 0.63%, Monthly Excess Return = 1.27%, Yearly Excess Return = -4.27%, Historical Cumulative Excess Return = 12.82% [11]

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a rating of "Buy" for the company [6]. Core Viewpoints - The company is positioned to benefit significantly from the development of AI, with projected revenues increasing from 139.65 billion to 182.69 billion CNY from 2025 to 2027, and net profits expected to rise from 7.78 billion to 11.79 billion CNY during the same period [4][6]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Leading Network Solutions Provider - The company focuses on three main product lines: network equipment, network security, and cloud desktop solutions, with network equipment contributing over 70% of revenue [15][21]. - The company emphasizes independent research and development, with over 50% of its workforce dedicated to R&D, and has established eight R&D centers globally [27][28]. - Revenue has shown consistent growth, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 17.48% from 2017 to 2024, and overseas revenue has significantly increased [36][45]. 2. New Development Opportunities in the Switch Market - The global and Chinese switch markets are steadily growing, with the Chinese market expected to reach 749 billion CNY by 2024 [50][52]. - The rise of white box switches, which offer cost advantages and operational flexibility, is notable, as they allow users to purchase hardware and install software independently [57][58]. - AI is driving the upgrade of data center switches, with significant growth in demand for high-speed ports, particularly 200G and 400G devices [64][67]. 3. Significant Competitive Advantages and Growth Value - The company targets large clients, successfully penetrating the high-end market for operators, and has won significant contracts with major telecom companies [98][100]. - The company maintains a strong focus on product development, achieving a leading market share in several sectors [105]. - The establishment of self-owned production lines ensures delivery capabilities, and the company has built a robust technical service system for rapid response [3][104]. 4. Financial Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 139.65 billion, 160.84 billion, and 182.69 billion CNY from 2025 to 2027, with net profits of 7.78 billion, 9.70 billion, and 11.79 billion CNY respectively [4][5]. - The report suggests that the company has substantial growth potential due to its deep engagement in the switch product market and active overseas expansion [4].

Group 1 - The total fertility rate (TFR) in China has been declining, reaching approximately 1.0 in 2023, which is among the lowest in major economies globally [2][12][15] - The number of women of childbearing age is decreasing, with projections indicating a reduction of over 16 million by 2025 compared to 2020, contributing to downward pressure on future birth rates [16][20] - The Chinese government has initiated a series of policies to support childbearing, including the establishment of a cash subsidy system for families with children under three years old, aimed at increasing birth rates [3][24][27] Group 2 - The child-rearing subsidy policy framework in China has evolved into a progressive model that includes support for childcare infrastructure, economic relief, and direct cash subsidies [3][24] - Local governments have been innovating in subsidy policies, with various models emerging, such as monthly cash payments and tax deductions for childcare expenses [28][29] - The experience of low-fertility countries like Japan and South Korea provides valuable lessons for China, particularly in terms of increasing family-related social spending to improve birth rates [36][37]

Group 1: Investment Opportunities under Childcare Subsidy Policy - The government work report for 2025 emphasizes the formulation of pro-natalist policies, issuance of childcare subsidies, and development of integrated childcare services, which will marginally impact the maternal and infant products, early education, and assisted reproduction industries [2][9] - Cash subsidies will directly reduce the cost of childbirth and strengthen the expectation of stabilizing birth rates, while the released purchasing power will prioritize activating essential maternal and infant consumption [2][9] - The integration of childcare services is expected to accelerate the expansion of early education supply and market segmentation [2][9] Group 2: Maternal and Infant Products - The maternal and infant products market is projected to grow continuously, with food, clothing, and daily necessities being the main consumption categories, reaching a market size of 4.68 trillion yuan by 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate exceeding 7% [3][13] - Despite a declining birth rate, the increase in disposable income and consumption capacity of maternal and infant families will sustain market growth [3][13] - The online maternal and infant consumption share is expected to rise from 33.8% in 2021 to 39.0% by 2025, indicating a shift in consumer behavior towards online shopping [13][20] Group 3: Early Education - The early education and childcare market is expected to expand due to policy support, with the market size projected to reach 151.81 billion yuan in 2024 and further increase to 232.31 billion yuan by 2030 [4][22] - The 2025 National Childcare Service Quality Improvement Action emphasizes the integration of medical and educational services, standardization, and talent cultivation, indicating strong government support for the childcare industry [4][22] - The focus on improving the quality of childcare services will enhance the overall market environment and growth potential [4][22] Group 4: Assisted Reproduction - The penetration rate of assisted reproduction services is gradually increasing, with the market size in China expected to grow from 140 billion yuan in 2014 to 496 billion yuan by 2023, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 14.5% [5][27] - The global assisted reproduction services market is projected to grow from 20.4 billion USD in 2014 to 31.7 billion USD by 2023, driven by rising infertility rates and increased awareness of reproductive health [5][27] - The demand for assisted reproduction services is expected to rise as childcare subsidies potentially enhance overall fertility willingness [5][27]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tianli International Holdings (01773) with a target price not specified [5]. Core Views - The "Tianli Qiming AI Learning Companion" model is the first AI model approved by the state for large-scale application in campus education, currently used in 107 schools with 250,000 teachers and students [1]. - The AI model integrates generative AI technology with educational research, creating a comprehensive ecosystem for teaching, learning, management, evaluation, and practice [1]. - The company plans to pilot an empathetic AI teacher by September and aims to build a digital education community in collaboration with hundreds of schools and enterprises over the next three years [1]. Summary by Sections AI Application in Education - The "Tianli Qiming AI Learning Companion" model is designed to enhance educational digital transformation and is supported by strategic partnerships with several leading schools [2]. - The model utilizes a localized knowledge graph and various AI tools to provide precise learning diagnostics, intelligent exam analysis, and dynamic path optimization [2]. Market Trends - 2025 is identified as a critical year for the full implementation of AI in education in China, driven by policy, technology, and capital [3]. - The Ministry of Education and other departments have issued guidelines to accelerate educational digitalization, emphasizing the construction of educational models and the integration of AI in educational scenarios [3]. Business Strategy - The introduction of the AI college entrance examination training camp is seen as a strategic entry point for AI application, addressing the rigid demand and high willingness to pay during critical learning phases [4]. - The company possesses a strong foundation of high-quality content and practical experience, along with a robust network of self-operated and managed schools, providing a significant market advantage [4]. Financial Projections - The report forecasts revenues of 4.32 billion RMB, 5.64 billion RMB, and 7.39 billion RMB for FY25, FY26, and FY27 respectively, with net profits projected at 780 million RMB, 1.02 billion RMB, and 1.35 billion RMB [5].

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for King Long Automobile [7] Core Views - The integration of the three subsidiaries is expected to enhance procurement efficiency and improve the gross margin level, which has been relatively low compared to peers [2][48] - The company is positioned to benefit from the growing demand for buses in emerging markets and the increasing penetration of new energy buses globally [3][55] - The new management is anticipated to accelerate operational efficiency improvements, contributing to better financial performance [2][54] Summary by Sections Company Overview - King Long Automobile, established in 1988, has developed three core brands: King Long Buses, Jinlv Buses, and Haige Buses, and has faced challenges with low gross margins affecting performance [1][19] Financial Performance - The company has seen revenue growth since 2021, with 2024 revenue projected at 22.97 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.4%. However, the gross margin remains low at 10.2% compared to competitors [1][30] - The net profit for 2024 is expected to be 1.6 billion yuan, with a significant portion of this profit reliant on government subsidies [37] Strategic Developments - The integration of the three subsidiaries is expected to enhance gross margins significantly, with potential improvements if raw material costs decrease [2][50] - The appointment of a new chairman is expected to drive management reforms and operational efficiency [54] Market Outlook - King Long's products are exported to over 170 countries, with a strong growth trajectory in overseas sales, particularly in new energy buses [3][55] - The company is also focusing on autonomous driving technology, which could serve as a second growth engine [3][66] Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The forecast for net profit from 2025 to 2027 shows substantial growth, with expected figures of 3.78 billion, 6.86 billion, and 11.95 billion yuan respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 140%, 81%, and 74% [4][68] - The report suggests a target price of 15.83 yuan based on a projected valuation multiple of 9.5 times for 2027 [71]

行业比较专题 证券研究报告 "反内卷"行情的三阶段 核心结论：反内卷行情如果发展顺利，可能分为三阶段：第一阶段政策催化下 的预期（幅度可能较小），第二段定价资源品价格上涨，第三段定价资源品高 价横住的时间。目前投资者或预期类似 16-17 年供给侧改革带来的资源股行 情，但是目前行情尚在预期阶段，后续仍需观察政策落地和产能出清情况，如 果没有真实的出清，行情可能不会有后续两个阶段。 和反内卷类似，当年的供给侧改革也属于供给侧出清。我们认为，相比需求侧 驱动，供给侧驱动由于带有比较强的政策因素，市场调节机制相对弱化。因此， 供需趋紧的持续时间更长、预判难度较高。供给侧驱动的特征就导致股价行情 大概率是分阶段的。 复盘 16-17 年的供给侧改革行情，最典型的例子是煤炭的落后产能淘汰。我们 重点分析股价和煤价的关系，可以分为三阶段： 策略报告 | 投资策略 1）第一段是 2016 年 2 月供给侧结构性改革文件发布；尽管站在当时看历史 案例不多，但市场已有部分格局出清、煤价企稳预期，可以发现 16 年 2 月煤 炭板块相对沪深 300 有小幅超额行情。 2）第二段是 2016 年 6 月，当时煤价小幅上涨，但煤炭 ...

Group 1: Credit and Debt Settlement - Several provinces have reported specific amounts allocated for settling overdue enterprise payments, with Hunan and Yunnan allocating 200 billion and 356 billion respectively, while Guangxi and Shaanxi have also set aside significant amounts from their special bonds [1][18][19] - Various counties have reported on the scale of overdue payments, with notable repayments such as 20.59 billion in Guizhou's Tongren Dejiang County, and several counties achieving a "zero balance" on overdue payments [1][19][20] Group 2: Food and Beverage Industry - The recent fluctuation in the price of Moutai has affected market sentiment, prompting leading brands to explore new consumption scenarios and target younger demographics [2][29] - The beer sector has seen a decline, with a recommendation to focus on companies like Yanjing Beer as consumption policies evolve [2][30] - The food and beverage sector is experiencing a mixed performance, with health products and baked goods showing growth, while traditional alcoholic beverages face challenges [2][28][31] Group 3: Internet Industry - The valuation of Chinese internet companies is considered attractive, with the Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Tech Index showing significant valuation advantages [3][34] - The focus for 2025 is on the resurgence of growth and innovation within the Chinese internet sector, with companies like Tencent and Alibaba actively pursuing new business opportunities [3][34] - AI applications are expected to enhance the overall valuation of Chinese internet companies, with significant advancements in technology and business practices [3][34][35] Group 4: Emerging Industries - The approval of D-allohexose as a new food ingredient in China is expected to expand market demand, with companies like Baolong Chuangyuan and Bailingbao positioned to benefit from this development [9][10] - The global market for allohexose is projected to grow significantly, with a CAGR of 33.26% from 2019 to 2023, indicating strong future potential [9][10] Group 5: Textile and Fashion Industry - Jin Hong Group is successfully leveraging IP licensing and cloud brocade to enhance its market presence, with significant revenue growth projected for the coming years [8][26] - The company is focusing on creating diverse consumer experiences through innovative retail strategies and collaborations with popular brands [8][24][25]

基金研究 | 基金专题报告 基金研究 证券研究报告 2025 年 07 月 04 日 作者 吴先兴 分析师 SAC 执业证书编号：S1110516120001 wuxianxing@tfzq.com 王喆 分析师 SAC 执业证书编号：S1110520060005 wangzhe@tfzq.com 相关报告 1 《金融工程：基金研究-新经济龙头 引擎：华商中证 A500 指数增强基金配 置价值深度解析》 2025-07-02 2 《金融工程：金融工程-哪些行业景 气度在上行？——细分行业景气度跟踪 -20250701》 2025-07-01 3 《金融工程：金融工程-量化择时周 报 ： 突 破 震 荡 上 轨 后 如 何 应 对 ?》 2025-06-29 基金经理海洋所管理的华商量化优质精选基金采用 "量化行业轮动+基本 面验证"框架，通过个股α、产业β及交易保护三维策略获取超额收益。2024 年接管以来年化收益 6.64%，跑赢 50%同类基金。 业绩归因显示基金对电子、汽车、有色金属的超配为基金贡献较高超额收 益，而对非银金融以及家用电器的低配也为组合贡献了一定的行业配置超 额收益。电子、计算机以及通信 ...

Investment Rating - Industry rating: Outperform the market (maintained rating) [6] Core Views - The liquor sector is experiencing a decline in sentiment due to fluctuations in the price of Feitian Moutai, with leading companies actively exploring new consumption scenarios and demographics [2][13] - The health products, soft drinks, and snacks sectors are viewed positively due to high growth potential, low base effects, and upcoming peak seasons [4][15] Summary by Sections Market Performance Review - The food and beverage sector saw a decline of 0.88% from June 23 to June 27, while the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.95% [1][22] - Specific sector performances included health products (+3.65%), baked goods (+2.72%), and soft drinks (-0.58%) [1][22] Liquor Sector Insights - The white liquor sector declined by 1.66%, attributed to seasonal demand weakness and price fluctuations of high-end products like Feitian Moutai [2][13] - Current prices for 25-year Moutai (original/scattered) are 1870 RMB/1800 RMB, down by 80 RMB/100 RMB from the previous week [2][13] - The Shunwan white liquor index PE-TTM is at 18X, which is considered low compared to the historical average [2][13] Health Products and Snacks - The health products sector is experiencing a growth trend, with a 3.65% increase this week, driven by new consumption trends [20] - The snack sector is expected to benefit from low base effects and new product launches, with companies like Three Squirrels and Salted Fish being highlighted [17][21] Soft Drinks and Beer - The soft drink sector saw a slight decline of 0.6%, with notable performances from brands like Master Kong (+5.4%) and Nongfu Spring (+5.3%) [4][15] - The beer sector declined by 1.9%, but there is optimism for recovery with upcoming consumption policies [4][15] Investment Recommendations - Focus on strong alpha companies in the liquor sector such as Shanxi Fenjiu and Guizhou Moutai, which are expected to benefit from market consolidation [4][21] - In the consumer goods sector, companies that align with cost reduction and market share growth strategies are recommended, including Li Gao Foods and Nongfu Spring [4][21]