Group 1: Market Analysis of Trade Friction - The report reviews the impact of the US-China trade friction from 2018 to 2019, categorizing it into seven phases based on eight major events, highlighting the volatility in the market during these periods [1][9][12] - During the phase from May 29, 2018, to November 30, 2018, the market experienced significant declines, with the Shanghai Composite Index dropping by 17% [9][13] - Following a series of negotiations and agreements, the market rebounded significantly from December 1, 2018, to May 4, 2019, with the Shanghai Composite Index increasing by 18.94% [9][13] Group 2: Domestic Industrial Production - The industrial production index has shown signs of recovery, with specific sectors such as methanol, high furnace production in Tangshan, polyester filament, and soda ash experiencing growth, while Shandong's independent refineries and tire production have declined [17][19] - The subway passenger volume in major cities has decreased, indicating a potential slowdown in urban mobility [17][18] Group 3: International Employment Trends - In May, the US non-farm employment figures showed a decline but were still above expectations, with 139,000 new jobs added, surpassing the forecast of 126,000 [29][30] - The unemployment rate remained stable at 4.2%, aligning with expectations, while wage growth exceeded predictions with an average hourly wage increase of 0.4% [29][30] Group 4: Industry Allocation Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on three main investment directions: advancements in AI technology, recovery in consumer stocks, and the rise of undervalued dividends [4] - The consumer sector is highlighted as having low valuations, with potential for recovery driven by declining interest rates and policy support [4]

固定收益 | 固定收益点评 跨月后，本周资金面维持均衡偏松，资金利率中枢有所下移，央行打破月 末公告买断式逆回购操作惯例，宣布 10000 亿元买断式逆回购操作，释放 流动性呵护信号，资金分层现象仍不明显。 央行前置买断式逆回购操作，如何理解？ 固收周度点评 20250608 证券研究报告 暖风再起，静待下行 政策暖风再起，短端表现较强，收益率曲线走陡 本周（6/3-6/6）债市有所回暖，短端明显强势，曲线走陡，背后有几点 驱动因素：一是月初资金面维持均衡宽松，央行超预期前置买断式逆回购 操作，释放重要信号，以及市场开始预期国债买卖适时重启，对短端品种 形成利好，机构抢跑；二是中美元首通话落地，中美贸易局势的演绎、以 及后续中美关税贸易谈判存在的不确定性，基本面逻辑整体或仍有利于债 市。 全周收益率走势来看，债市收益率普遍下行，短端表现好于长端。截至 6/6， 1Y、2Y、10Y、30Y 国债收益率较上周分别下行 4.5BP、3.6BP、1.7BP、2.0BP 至 1.41%、1.43%、1.65%、1.88%。 流动性呵护之下，资金面均衡宽松 6 月 5 日，中国人民银行发布公开市场买断式逆回购招标公告，此 ...

Core Insights - The Shanghai Municipal Development and Reform Commission has proposed measures to enhance the quality and expansion of infrastructure REITs in the city, encouraging local enterprises to actively apply for project reserves [1][7] - The total issuance scale of listed REITs reached 174.4 billion yuan, with 66 REITs issued as of June 6, 2025 [8] Market Performance - During the week of June 3 to June 6, 2025, the CSI REITs total return index increased by 1.58%, while the total REITs index rose by 1.57%. The property REITs index saw a gain of 0.85%, and the operating rights REITs index increased by 2.87% [2][17] - The total REITs index outperformed the CSI 300 index by 0.69 percentage points and the CSI All Bond index by 1.41 percentage points, but underperformed the Nanhua Commodity index by 0.24 percentage points [2][17] Liquidity - The overall trading activity of REITs increased, with a total trading volume (MA5) of 498 million yuan, up 4.6% from the previous week. The trading volumes for property and operating rights REITs were 270 million yuan and 228 million yuan, respectively [3][37] - The largest trading volume among REIT types was in transportation infrastructure, accounting for 32.4% of the total [3][37] Correlation - The correlation coefficients between the CSI REITs index and major indices over the past 20 days show a positive correlation with the CSI 300 index (0.583) and a negative correlation with the CSI All Bond index (-0.053) [29][30] - The internal correlation among different REIT categories indicates a strong relationship between industrial park REITs and warehouse logistics REITs (0.814) [31]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for Changshu Bank with a target price of 9.59 CNY, corresponding to a 0.91x PB for 2025 [5]. Core Views - Changshu Bank focuses on serving small businesses and individual entrepreneurs, emphasizing a "small and scattered" approach to deepen its presence in the inclusive finance sector [1][2]. - The bank benefits from a strong net interest income, with significant potential for improvement in non-interest income [2]. - The bank's asset quality is robust, supported by prudent risk control and sufficient provisioning, which enhances its ability to maintain stable dividends and internal capital replenishment [2][4]. - The macroeconomic policies promoting consumption and rural development are expected to favorably impact the bank's future growth [3]. Summary by Sections 1. Regional Advantages - Jiangsu Province, where Changshu Bank is located, shows strong economic growth, with a GDP of 13.7 trillion CNY in 2024, ranking second nationally with a growth rate of 6.85% [12][15]. - Changshu City is strategically positioned in the Yangtze River Delta, contributing significantly to regional industrial chains and financial activities [2][31]. 2. Financial Performance - The bank's revenue is primarily derived from net interest income, with projections indicating a net profit growth rate of 12.67%, 12.60%, and 12.17% for 2025-2027 [4]. - The bank's financial metrics for 2025 include an expected operating income of 117 billion CNY and a net profit of 43 billion CNY [4]. 3. Business Strategy - Changshu Bank has established a broad network of branches, with 170 branches as of 2024, focusing on local markets while expanding into other regions through village and town banks [49][50]. - The bank's strategy includes leveraging its "investment management bank" qualifications to acquire smaller banks, facilitating future credit business expansion [2][4]. 4. Future Outlook - The bank's digital transformation strategy aims to enhance its operational efficiency and service delivery, with a focus on small and micro-loans [44][45]. - The bank's commitment to supporting rural and small business financing aligns with national policies aimed at promoting economic development in these sectors [51].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Hold" with a downgrade from previous ratings [6][27]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 2.18 billion yuan for 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 12.4%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 58% to 190 million yuan [1][11]. - The company is experiencing a decline in profitability due to lower prices of valine, despite an increase in production capacity and sales volume [2][12]. - The company is actively pursuing new projects, which are expected to contribute significantly to revenue growth in 2025 and beyond [3][24]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a gross profit of 543 million yuan, down 2.43 billion yuan year-on-year, with a gross margin of 24.9%, a decrease of 15.6 percentage points [3][19]. - The first quarter of 2025 saw a revenue of 687 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 37.2%, but the net profit attributable to shareholders fell by 41% [11][12]. - The company’s amino acid products generated 1.51 billion yuan in revenue, accounting for 69% of total revenue, with a production volume of 99,400 tons, an increase of 20.7% year-on-year [2][13]. Project Development - The company is advancing several projects, including a 50,000-ton bio-based succinic acid production facility and a 50,000-ton bio-based 1,3-propanediol project, which are expected to provide significant revenue increments in the future [3][24]. - The company has maintained a high level of R&D investment, with R&D expenses reaching 124 million yuan in 2024, an increase of 15 million yuan from the previous year [22]. Valuation Forecast - The projected net profits for the company from 2025 to 2027 are estimated to be 293 million yuan, 371 million yuan, and 418 million yuan respectively, reflecting a downward adjustment from previous estimates [4][27].

Investment Rating - Industry rating is maintained at "Outperform the Market" [4] Core Viewpoints - The construction sector has shown a positive performance with a 1.33% increase, outperforming the CSI 300 by 0.36 percentage points. The focus on infrastructure investment in the central and western regions has significantly increased, with major projects and events expected to catalyze growth [1][3] - Continuous recommendations are made to focus on infrastructure investment opportunities in the central and western regions, particularly in construction, cement, and civil explosives, as well as key industries like coal chemical and nuclear power [1][2] Summary by Sections Major Projects and Catalysts in Central and Western Infrastructure - Significant projects include the Three Gorges Waterway New Channel with an investment of approximately 76.6 billion yuan and a total construction period of 100 months. Key beneficiaries include Yipuli and Kailong Co. [12][21] - The Zhejiang-Jiangxi-Guangdong Canal project is estimated to require 320 billion yuan and is expected to start construction during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, with key beneficiaries being Huase Group and Guotai Group [13][21] - In Tibet, the opening of the Yarlung Tsangpo River downstream hydropower project is anticipated, with an estimated investment exceeding 1 trillion yuan and a planned capacity of 60 million kilowatts [19][21] - The Xinjiang region is seeing the commencement of the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan Railway, with a total cost of 8 billion USD, which is expected to catalyze related investments [20][21] Market Review - The construction index increased by 1.33% during the week, with the building design and service sectors showing strong performance, achieving gains of 2.09% and 1.34% respectively [3][23] Investment Recommendations - Emphasis on cyclical opportunities arising from improvements in infrastructure physical volume, with a focus on traditional construction blue-chip stocks and regional high-growth companies [24][28] - Recommendations include companies like Sichuan Road and Bridge, China Communications Construction, and China Railway Construction, which are expected to benefit from ongoing infrastructure projects [28] - Attention is drawn to emerging business directions and the transformation of the construction sector, particularly in AI and cleanroom sectors, with specific companies recommended for investment [29][30]

Investment Rating - Industry rating is maintained as "Outperform the Market" [5] Core Insights - The report highlights that Kid Wang plans to acquire 65% of the equity in Jiangsu Xingsiyu, aiming to accelerate its goal of becoming the preferred service provider for Chinese parent-child families. The acquisition amount is 1.65 billion yuan, corresponding to a PE of 9 times the net profit for 2024, with no performance guarantees [1] - The hair care industry in China is projected to grow significantly, with market size increasing from 43.2 billion yuan in 2020 to 57.1 billion yuan in 2023, representing a CAGR of 9.7%. It is expected to reach 81.25 billion yuan by 2028, with a CAGR of 7.3% from 2023 to 2028 [2] - Kid Wang's acquisition strategy is part of a broader three-expansion strategy, which includes previous acquisitions in the maternal and infant sector and beauty industry, indicating a focus on diversifying its service offerings [1][2] Summary by Sections Acquisition Details - Kid Wang announced the acquisition of 65% of Jiangsu Xingsiyu for 1.65 billion yuan, with plans to use 429 million yuan of previously raised funds for store upgrades towards this acquisition [1] - The acquisition is part of a strategy to deepen its presence in the hair care industry, which aligns with its goal of becoming a leading service provider for families [1] Market Overview - The hair care market in China is currently valued at nearly 60 billion yuan, with significant growth potential. The market is expected to continue expanding, driven by increasing consumer demand for hair care products and services [2] - In 2024, Xiyu's revenue is projected to be 723 million yuan, with a net profit of 183 million yuan, indicating a healthy growth trajectory [2] Synergy and Collaboration - The report outlines potential synergies between Kid Wang and Xiyu, including member collaboration, market layout, channel sharing, industrial synergy, and business model expansion [3] - Kid Wang's existing customer base and store network can enhance Xiyu's market reach, while Xiyu's product offerings can complement Kid Wang's service ecosystem [3] Financial Projections - The report anticipates steady growth for Kid Wang's core business, with expected net profits of 350 million yuan and 480 million yuan for 2025 and 2026, respectively, corresponding to PE ratios of 53 and 39 times [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Hold" with a downward adjustment [6][27]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 2.18 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 12.4%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 58% to 190 million yuan [1][11]. - The amino acid products generated 1.51 billion yuan in revenue, accounting for 69% of total revenue, with a production volume of 99,400 tons, an increase of 20.7% year-on-year [2][13]. - The company is actively advancing new projects, including the construction of various production bases, which are expected to provide significant growth in 2025 [3][24]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a gross profit of 543 million yuan, a decrease of 243 million yuan year-on-year, with a gross margin of 24.9%, down 15.6 percentage points [3][19]. - The first quarter of 2025 saw a revenue of 687 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 37.2%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 51 million yuan, down 41% [11][12]. - The company’s EBITDA for 2024 is projected at 450.26 million yuan, with a significant decline in net profit forecasted for 2025 to 293 million yuan [5][30]. Production and Sales - The company’s production capacity is being expanded, with significant increases in sales volume from various production bases, particularly the Qinhuangdao and Chifeng bases [2][12]. - The average price of valine, a key product, has decreased significantly by 36.5% year-on-year, impacting overall profitability [2][13]. Research and Development - The company has maintained a high level of R&D investment, with R&D expenses reaching 124 million yuan in 2024, an increase of 15 million yuan from the previous year [22]. - The company has filed for 10 new invention patents and 8 utility model patents in 2024, bringing the total number of patents to 247 [22]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to see a gradual recovery in profitability as new projects come online, with net profit forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 at 293 million, 371 million, and 418 million yuan respectively [4][27]. - The ongoing construction of various production facilities is anticipated to contribute significantly to revenue growth in the coming years [3][24].

金融工程 | 金工定期报告 2025 年 06 月 08 日 作者 吴先兴 分析师 SAC 执业证书编号：S1110516120001 wuxianxing@tfzq.com 韩乾 分析师 SAC 执业证书编号：S1110522100001 hanqian@tfzq.com 相关报告 1 《金融工程：金融工程-因子跟踪周 报 ： 小 市 值 、 成 长 因 子 表 现 较 好 -20250607》 2025-06-07 2 《金融工程：金融工程-基金风格配 置监控周报：权益基金连续两周上调大 盘股票仓位》 2025-06-02 3 《金融工程：金融工程-哪些行业景 气度在上行？——细分行业景气度跟踪 -20250601》 2025-06-01 金融工程 证券研究报告 基金风格配置监控周报： 权益基金本周上调小盘股票仓位 公募基金风格监控 基金季报中披露有基金前十大重仓股，同时企业季度报告中披露有企业的 前十大股东信息（主要使用上市公司 1、3 季度十大股东信息），结合这两 部分信息我们可以得到基金持仓更加详细的重仓股信息。因此模拟全部股 票持仓只需要估计基金剩余的非重仓持股明细。 基金季报（T 期）披露有股票 ...

金融工程 | 金工定期报告 戴维斯双击策略 戴维斯双击即指以较低的市盈率买入具有成长潜力的股票，待成长性显现、 市盈率相应提高后卖出，获得乘数效应的收益，即 EPS 和 PE 的"双击"。 策略在 2010-2017 年回测期内实现了 26.45%的年化收益，超额基准 21.08%。 今年以来，策略累计绝对收益 14.81%，超额中证 500 指数 14.17%，本周策 略超额中证 500 指数 1.60%。本期组合于 2025-05-06 日开盘调仓，截至 2025-06-06 日，本期组合超额基准指数 1.96%。 净利润断层策略 净利润断层策略是基本面与技术面共振双击下的选股模式，其核心有两点： "净利润"，指通常意义上的业绩超预期；"断层"，指盈余公告后的首个交 易日股价出现向上跳空，该跳空通常代表市场对盈余报告的认可程度。 策略在 2010 年至今取得了年化 28.88%的收益，年化超额基准 27.23%。本 年组合累计绝对收益 20.66%，超额基准指数 20.02%，本周超额收益 0.81%。 金融工程 证券研究报告 沪深 300 增强本周超额基准 2.57% 沪深 300 增强组合 根据对优秀 ...