披荆斩棘，硕果累累 [Table_ReportList] 相关研究 [Table_ReportType] ——2025 年计算机行业投资策略报告[Table_ReportDate] [行业核心观点： Table_Summary] 回顾 2024 年，SW 计算机行业指数年涨跌幅跑输沪深 300 和创业板指， 在 31 个申万一级行业中排名第 14，表现一般。我国加大力度化解地方 债务问题，有望缓解计算机行业应收压力，提升重点领域的资金预算。 展望 2025 年，综合数字经济产业的发展情况以及我国三中全会、中央 经济工作会议"实现高水平科技自立自强"的政策要求，继续聚焦信创、 数字化和智能化三大投资主线。1）信创主线：主要关注中央集中采购 需求以及中央处理器（CPU）、操作系统和数据库等信创产品的供给情况。 2）数字化主线：主要关注数据产业中数据基础设施、数据要素资源的 开发利用、数据要素的价值释放及应用落地。3）智能化主线：主要关 注国内 AI 大模型的技术升级、AI 大模型的成本降低、AI Agent 为代表 的 AI 产品应用落地和智能驾驶产业的发展进程。 投资要点： 投资主线一：信创。1）采购端：中央集 ...

Market Overview - The A-share market showed mixed performance on Wednesday, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing up by 0.02%, while the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index fell by 0.54% and 0.98% respectively. The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 12,428.19 billion yuan [1][5]. - In terms of sector performance, the household appliances, comprehensive, and machinery equipment sectors led the gains, while non-ferrous metals, steel, and basic chemicals sectors experienced declines [1][5]. - The Hong Kong market also saw declines, with the Hang Seng Index down by 0.86% and the Hang Seng Tech Index down by 1.09%. In the overseas markets, the Dow Jones increased by 0.25%, the S&P 500 rose by 0.16%, while the Nasdaq fell by 0.06% [1][5]. Important News - New measures for the "Two New" policy for 2025 have been announced, expanding the support for equipment updates to include electronic information, safety production, and facility agriculture sectors. Additionally, subsidies for the replacement of new energy city buses and power batteries have been increased. New subsidies for replacing old appliances such as microwaves, water purifiers, dishwashers, rice cookers, and for purchasing new mobile phones, tablets, smartwatches, and wristbands have also been introduced. Furthermore, fuel vehicles meeting the National IV emission standards are now eligible for scrapping and replacement subsidies [1][6]. - The incoming U.S. President Trump is considering declaring a national economic emergency to provide a legal basis for implementing widespread tariffs on allies and adversaries. The decision is not final, and the Trump team is exploring other legal avenues, including the potential use of Section 338 of U.S. trade law to support the proposed tariff policy during his campaign [2][6].

[Table_Title] 万联晨会 [Table_MeetReportDate] 2025 年 01 月 08 日 星期三 [Table_Summary] 概览 核心观点 【市场回顾】 周二 A 股三大指数集体收涨，截止收盘，沪指收涨 0.71%，深成指收 涨 1.14%，创业板指收涨 0.7%。沪深两市成交额 10764.67 亿元。申 万行业方面，电子、综合、通信领涨，医药生物、煤炭、公用事业领 跌；概念板块方面，铜缆高速连接、可控核聚变、光纤概念涨幅居前， 流感、仿制药一致性评价、减肥药跌幅居前。港股方面，恒生指数收 跌 1.22%，恒生科技指数收跌 0.92%；海外方面，美国三大指数集体 收跌，道指收跌 0.42%，标普 500 收跌 1.11%，纳指收跌 1.89%。 【重要新闻】 【英伟达 CEO 黄仁勋在 2025 年全球消费电子展发表重磅演讲，宣布 了一系列重要的技术创新】包括采用 Blackwell 架构的 RTX50 系列 GPU、AI 超级计算机、汽车智驾芯片 Thor 以及新推出的 Cosmos 世界 基础模型等。黄仁勋还公布了英伟达在汽车领域开展合作的厂商，其 中国内车厂包括比亚迪 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the communication industry, indicating a positive outlook for 2025 [3]. Core Viewpoints - The communication industry significantly outperformed the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 indices in 2024, ranking third among 31 primary industries [1][15]. - The valuation of the communication industry at the end of 2024 slightly increased compared to the beginning of the year, remaining within a reasonable range despite being slightly above the historical three-year average [19]. - The report identifies two core investment themes for 2025: the AI computing power industry chain and the integration of terrestrial and space systems, emphasizing the importance of technological advancements and policy support [1][44]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Performance - The Shenwan Communication Index rose by 28.82% in 2024, outperforming both the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 indices by 14.13 percentage points and 15.59 percentage points, respectively [14][15]. - The index experienced significant fluctuations throughout the year, with a notable recovery starting in mid-February due to the rising demand in the AI sector [14]. 2. Communication Industry Overview - The overall economic performance of the communication industry is stable, with telecommunications revenue reaching CNY 15,947 billion in the first 11 months of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 2.6% [21][25]. - The fixed internet broadband business revenue grew by 5% year-on-year, contributing to the overall telecommunications revenue growth [25]. 3. Investment Themes - **AI Computing Power Industry Chain**: - The demand for intelligent computing is expected to accelerate, driven by advancements in AI and domestic computing infrastructure [2]. - The construction of intelligent computing centers is projected to boost server demand and increase the need for liquid cooling solutions [2]. - The demand for high-speed optical modules and the potential for domestic substitution of high-end optical chips are highlighted as key growth areas [2]. - **Integration of Terrestrial and Space Systems**: - The establishment of the Low Altitude Economy Management Office reflects the government's commitment to developing the low-altitude economy, with significant policy support anticipated [5]. - The deployment of the BeiDou navigation system is expected to accelerate, enhancing its application in various sectors [5]. - The satellite internet market is poised for growth, with significant advancements in low Earth orbit satellite deployment [5]. 4. Investment Recommendations - Focus on the acceleration of 5G applications and the dual core investment themes of AI computing power and terrestrial-space integration [6]. - Specific areas of interest include the construction of intelligent computing centers, the demand for liquid cooling servers, and the growth of the satellite internet industry [6].

市 场 研 究 [Table_Title] 万联晨会 [Table_MeetReportDate] 2025 年 01 月 07 日 星期二 [Table_Summary] 概览 核心观点 【市场回顾】 周一 A 股三大指数集体收跌，截止收盘，沪指收跌 0.14%，深成指收 跌 0.12%，创业板指收跌 0.09%。沪深两市成交额 10584.79 亿元。申 万行业方面，医药生物、钢铁、银行领涨，商贸零售、食品饮料、社 会服务领跌；概念板块方面，流感、禽流感、仿制药一致性评价涨幅 居前，社区团购、AI 眼镜、智能音箱跌幅居前。 港股方面，恒生指 数收跌 0.36%，恒生科技指数收跌 0.18%；海外方面，美国三大指数 涨跌不一，道指收跌 0.06%，标普 500 收涨 0.55%，纳指收涨 1.24%。 【重要新闻】 【央行明确释放稳汇率信号】接近央行人士称，由于近期海外投资者 对高等级人民币债券需求较为旺盛，央行拟于 1 月在香港新增发行离 岸人民币央行票据，预计发行规模会远超过去单次最大发行规模。中 国《金融时报》也连发两篇文章指出，央行有充足的工具箱、丰富的 经验应对人民币汇率贬值，有能力保持人民币汇率 ...

市 场 研 究 别与 8 家外资机构代表深入交流】座谈会上，与会外资机构积极评价 中国政府推进经济持续稳定发展的政策措施和坚定决心，一致认为 2024 年 9 月 26 日中央政治局会议及中央经济工作会议以来，存量政 策持续发力、增量政策陆续推出，有力稳定社会预期，国际投资者信 心得到提振。 研报精选 [Table_Title] 万联晨会 [Table_MeetReportDate] 2025 年 01 月 06 日 星期一 [Table_Summary] 概览 核心观点 【市场回顾】 上周五 A 股三大指数集体收跌，截止收盘，沪指收跌 1.57%，深成指 收跌 1.89%，创业板指收跌 2.16%。沪深两市成交额 12675.97 亿元。 申万行业方面，有色金属、煤炭、石油石化领涨，商贸零售、计算机、 社会服务领跌；概念板块方面，青蒿素、仿制药一致性评价、可燃冰 涨幅居前，快手概念、MLOps 概念、社区团购跌幅居前。港股方面， 恒生指数收涨 0.7%，恒生科技指数收涨 1.05%；海外方面，美国三大 指数集体收涨，道指收涨 0.8%，标普 500 收涨 1.26%，纳指收涨 1.77%。 【重要新闻】 【 ...

证券研究报告|传媒 元旦档创造良好开局，影片后续稳定力充足 [Table_ReportType] ——传媒行业快评报告[Table_ReportDate] [投资要点： Table_Summary] ⚫ 元旦档票房超 3 亿元，创造良好开局。元旦档相较于国庆档、春 节档等大型档期来说，时间较短，影响力较弱，但是作为新年的 开端，仍是备受市场关注的重点档期，氛围契合的中小体量电影 在其中挑起大梁。根据灯塔数据，2025 年元旦档期（一月一日） 收获票房 3.06 亿元，同比去年元旦当天票房微幅下滑 7.77%。从 跨年表现来看，元旦前夕（十二月三十一日）收获票房 3.84 亿元， 日均票房均超过 3 亿元，总票房共计 6.90 亿元，这一跨越新旧的 档期为今年电影市场创造了良好开局。 ⚫ 元旦假期未调休，观影热情受影响。从细分数据来看，观影总场 次 47.89 万场，同比上涨 4.68%；观影总人次 745.82 万，同比下 滑 7.54%；平均票价保持平稳，为 41 元。综合来看，票房微幅下 滑的主要原因还是在于此次元旦假期位于星期三，并未调休和周 末连接形成档期效应，观众观影热情有所影响，观影人次有所下 降 ...

Core Insights - The energy storage industry is experiencing continuous improvement in fundamentals since 2024, with significant growth in large-scale storage projects and increasing economic viability of independent storage stations and commercial storage projects [13][19][20] Market Overview - On January 2, 2025, the A-share market saw all three major indices decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 1.63% to 3,351.76 points, the Shenzhen Component Index down 2.40% to 10,414.61 points, and the ChiNext Index down 2.93% to 2,141.60 points. The total trading volume in the A-share market was 1,345.55 billion RMB, with net purchases of 6.441 billion HKD from southbound funds [3][9][10] Industry Analysis - In China, the cumulative installed capacity of energy storage reached 58.52 GW/128 GWh by the end of September 2024, an increase of approximately 86% compared to the end of 2023. The bidding data for energy storage projects in 2024 showed a total scale of 53.11 GW/139.43 GWh, representing year-on-year growth of 55.61% and 52.75% respectively [19][20] - The U.S. energy storage market is witnessing strong growth, with new installed capacity reaching 8.35 GW/24.96 GWh in the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 83.43% and 82.11%. The grid-side storage capacity is expected to continue its explosive growth [20] - In Europe, large-scale storage is expected to take over from household storage, with predictions of 22.4 GWh of new installed capacity in 2024, a 30.23% increase from 2023. Large-scale storage is projected to contribute 11 GWh of this capacity [20] Future Outlook - The energy storage industry is expected to continue improving in 2025, driven by dual growth trends in domestic and overseas markets. Large-scale storage is anticipated to see a high degree of certainty in growth, while household storage is expected to stabilize and contribute to new increments [13][20] - Emerging markets, particularly in the Middle East, are expected to see significant growth in large-scale storage due to energy consumption structures and renewable energy targets set for 2030 [20]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the energy storage industry, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities in this sector [69]. Core Insights - The energy storage industry is experiencing continuous improvement in fundamentals, with significant growth in both domestic and international markets. The report highlights the strong performance of large-scale storage projects and the increasing competitiveness of Chinese companies in the global market [63][66]. Market Review - The global energy storage market is thriving, with Chinese companies enhancing their competitiveness. In 2024, the cumulative installed capacity of energy storage in China reached 58.52 GW/128 GWh, representing an approximate 86% increase compared to the end of 2023 [66][68]. - The bidding data for energy storage projects in China shows a significant increase, with 817 projects completed from January to November 2024, totaling 53.11 GW/139.43 GWh, marking a year-on-year growth of 55.61% and 52.75% respectively [66]. Domestic Trends - Independent energy storage systems are becoming more economically viable, and commercial energy storage is expected to gain momentum. The report notes that the profitability of independent storage stations is improving, with utilization rates significantly higher than those of renewable energy paired storage [67][35]. - The report emphasizes the rapid growth of energy storage installations in the East China region, with over 9 GW added this year, particularly in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Xinjiang provinces [18]. Supply Side - The industry is facing intensified competition, leading to a decline in project prices. The price of battery-grade lithium carbonate has dropped from 500,000 CNY/ton at the beginning of 2023 to around 78,800 CNY/ton as of December 2024, a decrease of 41.67% year-on-year [16]. Overseas Trends - In the United States, large-scale storage projects are showing strong growth, with an installed capacity of 8.35 GW/24.96 GWh added in the first three quarters of 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 83.43% and 82.11% respectively [48][68]. - The report indicates that the European market is expected to see an increase in large-scale storage installations, with projections suggesting that large storage will become the main growth driver in the region [72]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies that will benefit from the growth of large-scale storage installations in the U.S., Middle East, and Europe, as well as those that can capitalize on the recovery of household storage demand in emerging markets [63].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the retail industry as of December 30, 2024 [7]. Core Insights - The consumer sector is still in a recovery phase, with a focus on rational spending. The cumulative year-on-year growth rate of social retail sales from January to November 2024 is +3.5%, a slowdown of 3.7 percentage points compared to the same period in 2023. Retail sales of gold and jewelry and cosmetics have decreased by -3.3% and -1.3% respectively [13][17]. - The 2024 Central Economic Work Conference emphasizes expanding domestic demand as a top priority, aiming to stimulate consumption through various measures, including increasing residents' income and creating new consumption growth points [18][19]. - The report highlights the rise of domestic brands in the cosmetics sector, with significant growth in sales during promotional events like "Double 11," where overall sales increased by +26.6% [7][56]. Summary by Sections Industry Review and Outlook - The overall economy is expected to maintain steady growth, with a year-on-year increase in per capita disposable income of +4.9% in Q3 2024. However, the social retail sales growth has slowed down due to insufficient domestic demand [13][17]. - The government aims to stimulate consumption by enhancing income for low- and middle-income groups and implementing policies to support new consumption growth points, particularly in smart home products, cultural tourism, and domestic brands [18][19]. Cosmetics Sector - The cosmetics market is experiencing fluctuations, but there is potential for future demand recovery. The cumulative retail sales of cosmetics from January to November 2024 show a year-on-year increase of +1.3% [7][56]. - Domestic brands are gaining market share, with younger consumers showing a higher acceptance of these products. The report suggests focusing on leading domestic cosmetic companies with strong R&D and marketing capabilities [7][56]. Gold and Jewelry Sector - The rapid increase in gold prices has suppressed consumer demand for gold jewelry, leading to a slowdown in store expansion among leading companies. The report recommends focusing on companies with strong product design and operational capabilities, as well as those offering high dividends [7][52]. - The report notes that the performance of leading gold and jewelry companies has varied, with some achieving positive growth while others face challenges due to rising gold prices [52].