证券研究报告 | 公司动态点评 2025 年 05 月 19 日 资料来源：公司财报，长城证券产业金融研究院 事件：公司发布 2024 年年报及 2025 年一季报，2024 年公司实现营收 4.32 亿元，同比增长 20.04%；实现归母净利润 0.33 亿元，同比增长 2.51%；实 现扣非净利润 0.24 亿元，同比下降 10.21%。2025 年 Q1 公司实现营收 1.26 亿元，同比增长 54.13%，环比增长 5.23%；实现归母净利润 0.08 亿元，同 比增长 0.71%，环比下降 21.60%；实现扣非净利润 0.07 亿元，同比增长 84.39%，环比下降 10.58%。 营收快速增长，研发投入加大：2024 年公司综合营收实现 20.04%的增长， 主要得益于先进封装领域的良好表现，其中电镀液及配套试剂同比增长 9.67%，光刻胶及配套试剂同比增长 37.68%。然而，净利润增长幅度小于营 收增长幅度，主要原因是公司持续加大研发投入，研发费用同比增长 40.42%， 占营业收入的比例达到 10.62%。整体来看，公司在保持营收增长的同时， 通过加大研发投入为未来的技术突破和市场拓展奠定 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected stock price increase of over 15% relative to the industry index in the next six months [5][22]. Core Views - The agricultural chemical industry is currently at a low point, and the company's performance is under short-term pressure. However, the company is expected to gradually strengthen its advantages in the industrial chain [1][10]. - The company is focusing on continuous investment in project construction, which is anticipated to enhance its market competitiveness [14][11]. - The potential acquisition of Shandong Huimeng is expected to further expand the company's industrial chain, enhancing overall competitiveness [12][14]. Financial Summary - For 2024, the company's revenue is projected to be 73.11 billion yuan, a decrease of 6.87% year-on-year, with a net profit of 2.15 billion yuan, down 64.34% year-on-year [1][2]. - The company's revenue for 2025 is estimated to recover slightly to 74.67 billion yuan, with a net profit of 4.04 billion yuan, reflecting an 87.4% year-on-year increase [13][14]. - The company's cash flow from operating activities for 2024 is expected to be 313 million yuan, a decline of 66.70% year-on-year [4][15]. Sales and Market Performance - In 2024, the company's sales volume for agricultural raw materials is expected to be 59,300 tons, an increase of 7.72% year-on-year, while the sales volume for agricultural formulations is projected to be 70,000 tons, up 16.14% year-on-year [3][2]. - Despite the increase in sales volume, the company's revenue and profit are under pressure due to declining prices for both raw materials and formulations [3][2]. Cost and Expense Analysis - The company's selling expenses are expected to rise by 16.79% year-on-year, with a selling expense ratio of 1.88% [3]. - Management expenses are projected to decrease by 19.45% year-on-year, while financial expenses are expected to increase significantly by 105.28% [3][4]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to see revenue growth of 11.1% in 2026 and 10.4% in 2027, with net profit growth of 26.4% and 26.8% respectively [14][13]. - The report suggests that the agricultural chemical industry is likely to recover as market inventory is digested and outdated production capacity is eliminated, benefiting leading companies with abundant registration resources [10][12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a stock price increase of over 15% relative to the industry index in the next six months [4][18]. Core Insights - The company is experiencing stable growth in both revenue and profit, with a projected revenue of 1.288 billion yuan in 2024, representing an 18.91% year-over-year increase, and a net profit of 96 million yuan, reflecting a 10.36% year-over-year growth [1][2]. - The company is benefiting from a recovery in downstream market demand, particularly in traditional home appliances and emerging markets such as new energy vehicles, wind power, and photovoltaics, which are driving industry growth [3][9]. - The company is actively pursuing product transformation and internal management upgrades, enhancing its technological innovation and new product development capabilities [8][9]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue is projected to grow from 1.083 billion yuan in 2023 to 2.040 billion yuan by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 14.7% [1]. - The net profit is expected to increase from 87 million yuan in 2023 to 163 million yuan in 2027, with a notable growth rate of 24.5% in 2025 [1][9]. - The company's return on equity (ROE) is forecasted to improve from 4.7% in 2023 to 7.1% in 2027, indicating enhanced profitability [1]. Market and Industry Context - The global economy is undergoing cyclical adjustments, with geopolitical risks and international trade challenges persisting, yet the company is positioned to capitalize on structural growth opportunities in the energy transition and power system reform [3]. - The domestic film capacitor industry is maturing, with increasing competition; however, the company is leveraging its procurement cost advantages and regional support to navigate these challenges [3].

证券研究报告 | 公司动态点评 2025 年 05 月 19 日 25Q1 同环比扭亏为盈，集成电路布局加速推进 | 财务指标 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入（百万元） | 14,053 | 16,106 | 19,285 | 22,332 | 26,665 | | 增长率 yoy（%） | 6.3 | 14.6 | 19.7 | 15.8 | 19.4 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 367 | 253 | 1,064 | 1,576 | 2,282 | | 增长率 yoy（%） | -46.5 | -31.0 | 320.9 | 48.1 | 44.8 | | ROE（%） | 1.0 | 0.7 | 2.8 | 4.0 | 5.5 | | EPS 最新摊薄（元） | 0.07 | 0.05 | 0.21 | 0.32 | 0.46 | | P/E（倍） | 169.3 | 245.5 | 58.3 | 39.4 | 27.2 | | P/B（倍） | 1.6 | ...

证券研究报告 | 投资策略研究*周报 2025 年 05 月 19 日 投资策略研究 美联储降息或再推迟，国内"以我为主"保持定力——长城策略周 观点（0512-0518） 美联储方面，降息窗口预期或将再推迟： 美联储 5 月 FOMC 会议宣布维持联邦基金利率目标不变，鲍威尔主席传递出 观望态度，表示美国实际经济数据没有看到放缓迹象，经济处于稳健状态； 美联储不需要急于调整利率，政策是适度限制的；目前的不确定性情况要求 美联储继续等待；当事态发展时，美联储可以酌情迅速采取行动；并且表示 "现在不能做出预测，要等到 6 月份"。自 FOMC 会议以来，市场对于美联储 降息的预期有所降温。而在 5 月 12 日中美两国发布联合声明，"贸易战"局 势有所缓和之后，美国经济预期边际上有所好转，美股等风险资产继续反弹， 市场再度降低了对美联储年内降息的预期；其中，高盛将美联储降息时间的 预期大幅推迟，推后至今年 12 月。往后来看，中美经贸关系沟通机制建立后， 第二阶段的磋商仍是关键，目前中美综合税率仍处于较高水平，半导体、医 药、芬太尼等关键领域变数较大，关税谈判方面整体不确定性仍较高。美联 储降息预期或将再生变数 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the media industry [5] Core Insights - The media industry is experiencing a significant rebound in fund preference and fundamentals in Q1 2025, with a notable increase in the allocation towards gaming and other segments [1][12] - The overall revenue for the media industry in 2024 is projected to be 508.1 billion yuan, with a slight year-on-year decline in net profit due to various pressures [2][27] - The gaming sector is witnessing high growth, with revenues reaching 934.34 billion yuan in 2024 and 267.19 billion yuan in Q1 2025, driven by new game launches and improved market conditions [3][36] - The film and cinema sector is benefiting from strong content supply during the Spring Festival, leading to a significant increase in revenue and profitability in Q1 2025 [4][21] - The advertising and marketing sector is under pressure from macroeconomic conditions, but there are signs of recovery as competition improves among leading companies [7][24] Summary by Sections Media Industry Overview - In Q1 2025, the media industry saw a fund holding increase of 12.52% year-on-year, with a fund holding ratio of 2.85% [11][12] - The media sector's heavy stock market value accounted for 1.04%, reflecting a 0.23 percentage point increase [1][12] - The overall low allocation ratio for the media industry decreased to 0.52%, indicating a growing preference for the sector [1][12] Gaming Sector - The gaming sector achieved revenues of 934.34 billion yuan in 2024 and 267.19 billion yuan in Q1 2025, with year-on-year growth rates of 7.74% and 21.93% respectively [3][36] - The adjusted net profit for the gaming sector in Q1 2025 was 35.04 billion yuan, marking a 47% increase year-on-year [3][41] - The sector's profit margin improved to 13.11%, reflecting a 2.25 percentage point increase [3][41] Film and Cinema Sector - The film and cinema sector generated revenues of 357.33 billion yuan in 2024 and 141.15 billion yuan in Q1 2025, with a 41% year-on-year growth in Q1 2025 [4][21] - The sector's net profit in Q1 2025 was 23.68 billion yuan, a significant recovery from a loss in the previous year [4][21] - The Spring Festival box office reached a record high of 95.10 billion yuan, driven by popular films [4][21] Advertising and Marketing Sector - The advertising sector reported revenues of 429.35 billion yuan in 2024, with a slight year-on-year decline of 5.16% [7][24] - The adjusted net profit for the advertising sector in Q1 2025 was 16.01 billion yuan, reflecting a 10.24% increase year-on-year [7][24] - The sector is expected to recover as competition among leading companies improves [7][24] Publishing Sector - The publishing sector's revenue is under pressure, but the effective tax rate has significantly decreased, leading to a recovery in net profit in Q1 2025 [27][28] - The overall revenue for the publishing sector is projected to remain stable, with a focus on maintaining quality content supply [27][28]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting the stock price to outperform the industry index by more than 15% in the next six months [4][21]. Core Views - The company is expected to see significant revenue growth driven by its overseas production capacity, particularly from the Thailand project, which is anticipated to improve profitability [11][12]. - Despite short-term pressure on profitability in 2024, the overall revenue is projected to maintain growth, with a notable increase in net profit expected in 2025 [2][12]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue**: The company reported a revenue of 797 million yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 26.42%. The projected revenues for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 1.406 billion, 1.762 billion, and 2.007 billion yuan respectively, indicating growth rates of 76.5%, 25.3%, and 13.8% [1][12]. - **Net Profit**: The net profit for 2024 is expected to be 56 million yuan, down 30.51% year-on-year, but is projected to rebound to 223 million yuan in 2025, reflecting a growth of 299.6% [1][12]. - **Cash Flow**: The net cash flow from operating activities decreased by 58.75% in 2024, primarily due to rising product costs and increased procurement expenses [3]. - **Profitability Ratios**: The company's net profit margin for 2024 is projected at 6.90%, down 5.71 percentage points from the previous year, while the return on equity (ROE) is expected to improve significantly to 12.0% by 2025 [2][12]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is recognized as a leading producer of mid-to-high-end flavoring agents in China, with a strong brand and customer resource base. It has established stable relationships with major international flavor companies [8][9]. - The global flavor and fragrance market is expected to grow steadily, with the market size projected to reach approximately 32.1 billion USD by 2025, driven by increasing demand in developing countries [9][10]. - The company's strategic move to expand its production capacity in Thailand is aimed at mitigating geopolitical risks and enhancing its competitive position in the global market [10][11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a stock price increase of over 15% relative to the industry index in the next six months [4][17]. Core Views - The company is expected to benefit from stable revenue growth in 2024, driven by the AI wave, with projected revenue of 35.14 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.6% [1][8]. - The company has established a comprehensive product matrix for AI end-side consumer electronics, positioning itself well for future market opportunities [3][8]. - The report highlights the company's strong performance in the automotive and server PCB segments, with a significant revenue increase of 90.34% in 2024 [2][7]. Financial Summary - **Revenue Projections**: The company forecasts revenues of 32.07 billion yuan in 2023, increasing to 35.14 billion yuan in 2024, and further to 39.60 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 12% from 2024 to 2027 [1][9]. - **Net Profit**: The net profit is projected to rise from 3.29 billion yuan in 2023 to 3.62 billion yuan in 2024, with a continued upward trend to 5.73 billion yuan by 2027 [1][9]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: The EPS is expected to grow from 1.42 yuan in 2023 to 2.47 yuan in 2027, indicating a strong growth trajectory [1][9]. - **Valuation Metrics**: The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 20.7 in 2023 to 11.9 by 2027, suggesting improving valuation as earnings grow [1][9]. Market Demand and Product Segmentation - The report notes a recovery in market demand for smartphones and consumer electronics, supported by government policies such as trade-in programs and subsidies [2][3]. - Revenue from communication boards, consumer electronics, and computing boards is expected to be 24.24 billion yuan, 9.75 billion yuan, and 1.03 billion yuan respectively in 2024, with significant growth rates of 3.08%, 22.30%, and 90.34% [2][3]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is actively enhancing its capabilities in the automotive PCB market, with plans for significant capital expenditures to support R&D and market expansion [7][8]. - The establishment of the ONE AVARY platform aims to integrate technology and resources across the AI product value chain, enhancing competitive advantages [3][8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting the stock price to outperform the industry index by more than 15% in the next six months [5][21]. Core Views - The company is expected to maintain stable performance in 2024, with a revenue increase of 9.1% year-on-year to 67.09 billion yuan and a slight net profit increase of 1.3% to 1.1 billion yuan [1][2]. - The report highlights that the petrochemical sector has negatively impacted short-term performance, but overall profitability remains stable [2]. - The company is positioned to benefit from a recovery in the long filament industry, supported by its integrated PTA-polyester supply chain [12][13]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue and Profitability**: The company’s revenue for 2024 is projected at 67.09 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 9.1%. The net profit is expected to be 1.1 billion yuan, reflecting a modest growth of 1.3% [1][2]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: The latest diluted EPS is projected to be 0.72 yuan for 2024, with expectations of growth to 0.96 yuan in 2025 and 1.49 yuan by 2027 [1][13]. - **Return on Equity (ROE)**: The ROE is expected to slightly decrease to 6.4% in 2024 but is projected to improve to 10.3% by 2027 [1][13]. - **Cash Flow**: The net cash flow from operating activities is expected to increase significantly by 85.57% year-on-year to 6.79 billion yuan in 2024, driven by higher cash receipts from sales [3]. Industry Overview - The polyester filament industry is currently facing price pressures, but the long-term supply-demand dynamics are expected to improve, leading to a gradual recovery in industry conditions [10][11]. - The report notes that the overall polyester industry in China is experiencing good growth, with exports expected to rise by 15% in 2024 [11]. - The company has a strong market position, with a domestic market share exceeding 12% in polyester filament production, and is the largest producer of polyester short fibers in China [12].

Group 1 - The report highlights that overseas cloud vendors are significantly increasing their capital expenditures (capex) to accelerate AI infrastructure development, with Microsoft planning to invest a total of $80 billion in AI infrastructure for the fiscal year 2025, aiming to increase AI training computing power by five times by 2026 [1][16][35] - Meta has raised its annual capital expenditure forecast from $60-65 billion to $64-72 billion, primarily for generative AI and core business investments [2][16] - Google reported a capital expenditure of $17.2 billion in Q1 2025, up from $12 billion in the same period last year, focusing on technology infrastructure investments [2][16] Group 2 - The report notes that the robotics industry is experiencing accelerated growth, with companies like Hyundai planning to deploy Boston Dynamics' Atlas robots in their new U.S. factory as part of a $21 billion investment plan [3][36] - Lenovo introduced its first humanoid robot, "Lenovo Enjoy No. 1," showcasing its capabilities in a live demonstration [6][40] - Midea's self-developed humanoid robot is set to enter its washing machine factory in Hubei for operational tasks, while Chery has delivered the first batch of 220 units of its humanoid robot, which can assist in sales and customer service [6][44] Group 3 - The communication sector index rose by 4.96% during the week of May 6-9, 2025, outperforming the CSI 300 index, which increased by 2.00% [11] - The report recommends several stocks for investment, including China Mobile, China Telecom, and various technology and cloud service providers [8][21] - The overall valuation of the communication sector is reported at a price-to-earnings ratio of 20.82, ranking fourth among TMT sectors [13][15]