Quantitative Models and Factor Construction Style Factors and Construction - **Factor Name**: Beta Factor **Construction Idea**: Measures the sensitivity of a stock's return to the market return **Construction Process**: The Beta factor is calculated by performing a half-life weighted regression of the past 252 trading days' daily returns of individual stocks against the CSI All Share Index. The half-life is set to 63 trading days. The regression coefficient is used as the Beta value [16][17] - **Factor Name**: Volatility Factor **Construction Idea**: Captures the risk or variability in stock returns **Construction Process**: The Volatility factor is a composite of three sub-factors: 1. **DASTD (Daily Standard Deviation)**: Standard deviation of excess returns over the past 250 trading days, calculated using a half-life weighted method with a half-life of 40 trading days 2. **CMRA (Cumulative Range)**: Difference between the maximum and minimum cumulative log returns over the past 12 months 3. **HSIGMA (Historical Sigma)**: Standard deviation of residuals from the Beta regression The final Volatility factor is the average of these three sub-factors [16][17] - **Factor Name**: Profitability Factor **Construction Idea**: Measures a company's ability to generate profits relative to its market value **Construction Process**: The Profitability factor is a composite of two sub-factors: 1. **ETOP (Earnings-to-Price Ratio)**: Calculated as trailing twelve months (TTM) net profit attributable to shareholders divided by total market capitalization 2. **CETOP (Cash Earnings-to-Price Ratio)**: Calculated as TTM net cash flow from operating activities divided by total market capitalization The final Profitability factor is the average of ETOP and CETOP [16][17] - **Factor Name**: Momentum Factor **Construction Idea**: Captures the continuation of stock price trends **Construction Process**: The Momentum factor is calculated as the cumulative return over the past 504 trading days, excluding the most recent 21 trading days. The return series is weighted using a half-life exponential decay with a half-life of 126 trading days [16][17] Stock Selection Factors and Construction - **Factor Name**: 20-Day Reversal **Construction Idea**: Measures short-term mean reversion in stock prices **Construction Process**: Calculated as the return over the past 20 trading days [20][21] - **Factor Name**: 60-Day Momentum **Construction Idea**: Captures medium-term price trends **Construction Process**: Calculated as the return over the past 60 trading days, excluding the most recent 20 trading days [20][21] - **Factor Name**: Single-Quarter Gross Margin **Construction Idea**: Measures operational efficiency **Construction Process**: Calculated as (Single-quarter revenue - Single-quarter cost of goods sold) / Single-quarter revenue [20][21] - **Factor Name**: 240-Day Skewness **Construction Idea**: Captures the asymmetry in return distributions **Construction Process**: Calculated as the skewness of daily returns over the past 240 trading days [20][21] Factor Backtesting Results Style Factor Performance - **Beta Factor**: Weekly long-short return of 3.76% [16][18] - **Volatility Factor**: Weekly long-short return of 2.88% [16][18] - **Profitability Factor**: Weekly long-short return of -2.83% [16][18] Stock Selection Factor Performance - **20-Day Reversal**: Weekly return of 0.46%, monthly return of 0.84%, annual return of 8.15% [24][25] - **60-Day Momentum**: Weekly return of 0.40%, monthly return of -0.01%, annual return of -1.44% [24][25] - **Single-Quarter Gross Margin**: Weekly return of 0.31%, monthly return of 1.19%, annual return of 4.85% [24][25] - **240-Day Skewness**: Weekly return of 0.25%, monthly return of 0.62%, annual return of -4.02% [24][25] Index-Specific Factor Performance - **CSI 500**: 60-Day Momentum weekly return of 0.93%, 20-Day Reversal weekly return of 0.63% [28][29] - **CSI 800**: 60-Day Momentum weekly return of 0.59%, 20-Day Reversal weekly return of 0.37% [31][32] - **CSI 1000**: 60-Day Momentum weekly return of 1.91%, 20-Day Reversal weekly return of 0.75% [35][36] - **CSI 300 ESG**: 240-Day Momentum weekly return of 0.45%, Single-Quarter Net Profit Margin weekly return of 0.40% [39][41] Evaluation of Models and Factors - **Style Factors**: Beta and Volatility factors performed well in the short term, indicating market preference for high-risk, high-beta stocks. However, the Profitability factor underperformed, suggesting a temporary market preference for lower-profitability stocks [16][18] - **Stock Selection Factors**: Short-term reversal and medium-term momentum factors showed consistent performance across different indices, while fundamental factors like gross margin demonstrated stable returns [24][25][28] - **Index-Specific Factors**: Factor performance varied across indices, with smaller-cap indices like CSI 1000 showing stronger momentum effects compared to larger-cap indices [35][36][39]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report focuses on the performance of the ETF fund market, summarizing the past week's performance and capital flows of the overall ETF fund market, different popular segmented ETF funds, and innovative theme and segmented industry ETF funds for investors' reference [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 ETF Market Overall Performance - Market performance: From April 28th to April 30th, A-share-focused ETFs showed mixed performance. TMT ETFs had the largest increase, with an average rise of 2.20% among funds above a certain scale, while financial and real estate ETFs had the deepest decline, with an average drop of 1.27% among funds above a certain scale [2][5]. - Capital flow: There was a significant inflow of funds into bond ETFs, with a net inflow of 6.192 billion yuan for the whole week. Conversely, large-cap index ETFs experienced a significant outflow of funds, with a net outflow of 6.898 billion yuan for the whole week [3][6]. 3.2 Different Popular Segmented Type ETF Funds Market Performance - **Stock ETF - Broad-based Index**: Different broad-based index ETFs had varying performance in terms of weekly capital flow, weekly return, recent 1-month return, and year-to-date return, including super large-cap, large-cap, mid - small-cap, science and technology/growth enterprise board-related, all - market, and index enhancement [14][15][16]. - **Stock ETF - Industry Theme**: Different industry theme ETFs also showed different performance. For example, TMT sector ETFs generally had positive weekly returns, while financial and real estate sector ETFs had negative weekly returns [20][22]. - **Stock ETF - SmartBeta**: These ETFs also had different performance in terms of capital flow and return [27]. - **Bond ETF**: Some bond ETFs had capital inflows, such as the Haifutong CSI Short - Term Financing ETF with a net inflow of 4.516 billion yuan, while others had outflows [28]. - **QDII ETF**: Their performance also varied, with some having positive weekly returns and others negative [29]. - **Commodity ETF**: Gold ETFs generally had negative weekly returns and some had significant capital outflows [30]. 3.3 Innovative Theme and Segmented Industry ETF Funds Market Performance - **TMT Innovation Theme**: Indexes such as animation and gaming, cloud computing and big data, and artificial intelligence had positive weekly returns, with corresponding representative funds also showing certain increases [32]. - **Consumption Segmented Industry**: Indexes like household appliances had a positive weekly return, while food and beverage had a negative return [33]. - **Pharmaceutical Segmented Industry**: Indexes such as innovative drugs had positive weekly returns, while traditional Chinese medicine had a negative return [34]. - **New Energy Theme**: Indexes like new energy vehicles had a small positive weekly return, while photovoltaic industry had a negative return [35]. - **Central and State - owned Enterprises Theme**: Most indexes in this theme had negative weekly returns [36]. - **Stable Growth Theme**: Indexes such as rare earth industry had a positive weekly return, while real estate had a significant negative return [37]. - **Shanghai - Hong Kong - Shenzhen/Hong Kong Stock Connect Segmented Industry**: Indexes like Hong Kong Stock Connect Internet had a positive weekly return, while Hong Kong securities had a negative return [38]. - **Dividend/Dividend Low - Volatility Index Family**: Most indexes in this family had negative weekly returns [39]. - **Growth Enterprise Board Index Family**: Indexes such as Science and Technology Innovation 100 had a positive weekly return, while Growth Enterprise Board 50 had a negative return [40][41].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report focuses on the performance of the quantitative fund market, summarizing the performance of major indices and quantitative funds in the past week, the overall performance and distribution of different types of public - offering quantitative funds, and the top - performing quantitative funds this week. During April 28 - April 30, 2025, A - shares showed mixed trends, and quantitative funds performed weakly [1][2][8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Near - Week Performance of Major Indices and Quantitative Funds - A - shares showed mixed trends, and quantitative funds performed weakly. Among the major indices, the one - week yields of CSI 1000, CSI 500, and SSE 500 were 0.18%, 0.08%, and - 0.43% respectively [8]. - Quantitative funds had average returns. Active quantitative funds fell 0.07%, and market - neutral funds fell 0.09%. Index - enhanced funds had weak excess returns, and none of the SSE 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 index - enhanced funds outperformed their benchmarks. The average excess return of CSI 500 index - enhanced funds was - 0.41% [4][11]. 3.2 Performance of Different Types of Public - Offering Quantitative Funds - **SSE 300 Index - Enhanced Funds**: The one - week return was - 0.51%, the excess return was - 0.08%, the maximum drawdown was - 0.37%, and the excess maximum drawdown was - 0.19% [16]. - **CSI 500 Index - Enhanced Funds**: The one - week return was - 0.33%, the excess return was - 0.41%, the maximum drawdown was - 0.04%, and the excess maximum drawdown was - 0.46% [17]. - **CSI 1000 Index - Enhanced Funds**: The one - week return was 0.14%, the excess return was - 0.04%, the maximum drawdown was 0.00%, and the excess maximum drawdown was - 0.25% [18]. - **Other Index - Enhanced Funds**: The one - week return was 0.33%, the excess return was 0.03%, the maximum drawdown was - 0.15%, and the excess maximum drawdown was - 0.18% [19]. - **Active Quantitative Funds**: The one - week return was - 0.08%, and the maximum drawdown was - 0.27% [20]. - **Market - Neutral Funds**: The one - week return was - 0.09%, and the maximum drawdown was - 0.11% [20]. 3.3 Performance Distribution of Different Types of Public - Offering Quantitative Funds The report presents the semi - annual performance trends of various types of public - offering quantitative funds, as well as the performance distributions in the past week and the past year. Index - enhanced funds show excess return performance [21]. 3.4 Top - Performing Public - Offering Quantitative Funds - **SSE 300 Index - Enhanced Top - Performing Funds**: Such as Anxin Quantitative Selection SSE 300 Index - Enhanced, with a one - week excess return of 0.46% [32]. - **CSI 500 Index - Enhanced Top - Performing Funds**: For example, Huaan CSI 500 Index - Enhanced, with a one - week excess return of 0.48% [33]. - **CSI 1000 Index - Enhanced Top - Performing Funds**: Like Huaan CSI 1000 Index - Enhanced, with a one - week excess return of 1.08% [34]. - **Other Index - Enhanced Top - Performing Funds**: Such as Huatai - Peregrine CSI 2000 Index - Enhanced, with a one - week excess return of 1.09% [35]. - **Active Quantitative Top - Performing Funds**: For instance, Jinxin Quantitative Selection, with a one - week return of 5.02% [36]. - **Market - Neutral Top - Performing Funds**: Such as Southern Absolute Return Strategy, with a one - week return of 0.43% [37].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a strong buy investment rating for the company [3][10]. Core Views - The company's revenue is projected to grow by 9.7% year-on-year to 8.98 billion yuan in 2024, with the consumer goods segment growing by 17% to 4.99 billion yuan and the medical segment growing by 1% to 3.91 billion yuan [1][10]. - In Q1 2025, revenue increased by 36.5% year-on-year to 2.6 billion yuan, with consumer goods and medical segments growing by 29% and 46% respectively [1][10]. - The company has implemented reforms in its consumer goods business, including organizational restructuring and marketing innovations, which are beginning to show positive results [1][10]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a net profit of 700 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 19.8%, and a non-recurring net profit of 590 million yuan, growing by 43.4% [1][10]. - The company plans to distribute a total cash dividend of 379 million yuan for 2024, accounting for 54.43% of the net profit [1][10]. - The medical segment's revenue for 2024 is expected to be 3.91 billion yuan, with a growth of 1.1% [7][10]. Segment Analysis - The consumer goods segment is expected to achieve a revenue of 4.99 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 17.1%, driven by products like cotton soft towels and sanitary napkins [2][7]. - The medical segment is projected to show steady growth, with high-end wound dressings performing particularly well, contributing to a revenue of 1.25 billion yuan in Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 46.3% [7][10]. Profitability and Valuation - The company's net profit margin improved to 7.75% in 2024, with an overall gross margin of 47.32% [10][16]. - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is 1.81 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 28.9 [9][16]. - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of 1.05 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a growth of 51% [9][10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a strong buy rating for the company, with a current market capitalization of 39.9 billion and a corresponding PE of 16X [5][11]. Core Insights - The company's revenue for 2024 decreased by 2.65% to 20.957 billion, and net profit attributable to shareholders fell by 26.88% to 2.159 billion. However, Q1 2025 shows signs of stabilization with revenue growth of 0.16% and net profit growth of 5.46% [1][10]. - The company is expanding its sports retail and urban outlet business, which is expected to become a new growth highlight [1][10]. - The main brand's revenue has declined, but other brands are experiencing rapid growth, particularly in direct sales and online channels [2][10]. Revenue and Profitability - In 2024, the main brand's revenue was 15.270 billion, down 7.22%, while other brands achieved a revenue of 2.668 billion, up 32.38% [2][10]. - For Q1 2025, the main brand's revenue decreased by 9.52% to 4.642 billion, while other brands saw a 100% increase to 0.743 billion [2][10]. - The net profit margin for 2024 decreased by 3.41 percentage points to 10.3%, while the gross margin improved slightly to 44.52% [4][10]. Store Expansion and Brand Performance - The total number of stores at the end of 2024 was 7,178, with a net decrease in the main brand's stores but an increase in other brands [8][10]. - The company is focusing on enhancing its operational quality through direct store expansion and strategic partnerships, such as with JD.com for urban outlet development [10][11]. Financial Forecasts - Revenue projections for 2025 to 2027 are set at 22.274 billion, 24.466 billion, and 25.940 billion, reflecting growth rates of 6%, 10%, and 6% respectively [11][13]. - Net profit forecasts for the same period are 2.443 billion, 2.721 billion, and 2.900 billion, with expected growth rates of 13%, 11%, and 7% [11][13].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" investment rating for Hunan Gold [3][7]. Core Views - The company benefits from rising gold and antimony prices, leading to significant year-on-year growth in performance [1][7]. - The revenue for 2024 reached 27.84 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.5%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 850 million yuan, up 73.1% year-on-year [1][2]. - The first quarter of 2025 saw a revenue of 13.12 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 67.8% [1][2]. Financial Data and Valuation - Total revenue projections for 2025 are estimated at 49.56 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 78% [2][14]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach 2.087 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a 147% increase year-on-year [2][14]. - The price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is projected to decrease from 31.8 in 2024 to 12.9 in 2025, indicating improved valuation attractiveness [2][14]. Production and Sales Performance - In 2024, the company produced 46.3 tons of gold, a decrease of 2.87% year-on-year, and 2.92 million tons of antimony, down 6.15% year-on-year [7]. - The company plans to produce 72.5 tons of gold and 39,500 tons of antimony in 2025 [7]. Profitability and Margins - The gross margin increased due to rising gold and antimony prices, with gold product unit revenue rising by 22.3% year-on-year [7]. - The overall gross margin improved by 0.74 percentage points, with specific increases in gold and antimony margins [7]. Shareholder Information - The major shareholder, Hunan Gold Group, holds a 35.06% stake in the company [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" investment rating for the company [3][7]. Core Insights - The company has shown signs of stabilization in Q1 2025, with a 16% year-on-year increase in new orders, indicating a recovery in downstream customer demand. The focus on cash flow management and AI security has contributed to new business growth [1][7]. - Despite a significant decline in revenue and profits in 2024, the company is expected to see a recovery in performance due to improving customer demand and the development of AI technologies [7]. Financial Data and Valuation - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 6,442 million, with a year-on-year growth of 4%. However, a sharp decline of 32% is expected in 2024, followed by a recovery with 8% growth in 2025 [2][13]. - The company reported a net profit of 72 million in 2023, but a loss of 1,379 million is anticipated for 2024, with further losses expected in 2025 [2][13]. - The company's current stock price is 30.75 yuan, with a total market capitalization of 21.1 billion [3]. Operational Performance - The company has improved its cash collection efficiency, achieving a cash collection ratio of 109.40% in 2024, a significant increase of 26.04 percentage points year-on-year [7]. - The introduction of AI technologies has enhanced product offerings, with a notable increase in the use of AI-assisted programming among R&D personnel, reaching nearly 80% by the end of Q1 2025 [7]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates a gradual recovery in the company's performance, driven by the resurgence of customer demand and the integration of AI into its product lines [7]. - The projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are -307 million, 50 million, and 142 million respectively, indicating a path towards profitability [2][13].

证券研究报告 | 公司点评报告 2025 年 05 月 02 日 软通动力（301236.SZ） 基本盘稳健运营，AI+国产化多点开花 TMT 及中小盘/计算机 并购整合导致公司 24 年利润承压，软件业务基本盘企稳向好趋势巩固。看好公 司软硬一体协同发展，紧抓 AI+国产化机遇实现多点开花。 ❑ 风险提示：信创等政策扶持力度不达预期；云计算、AI 产业技术发展低于预 期；行业竞争加剧；技术创新不及预期 财务数据与估值 | 会计年度 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万元) | 17581 | 31316 | 32906 | 34387 | 35762 | | 同比增长 | -8% | 78% | 5% | 4% | 4% | | 营业利润(百万元) | 485 | 123 | 387 | 469 | 552 | | 同比增长 | -51% | -75% | 214% | 21% | 18% | | 归母净利润(百万元) | 534 | 180 | 370 | 452 | ...

证券研究报告 | 公司点评报告 2025 年 05 月 02 日 永辉超市（601933.SH） 调改持续推进，供应链优化提效 消费品/商业 公司调改持续推进，同时优化尾部老店，门店数量减少致短期收入波动。品质 零售大势所趋。永辉超市为国内商超龙头，生鲜及供应链根基扎实，当前坚定 "胖东来"路线，围绕商品强化选品+品控+差异化，围绕服务优化环境+做重服 务+提升员工状态；叠加胖东来倾力帮扶输出顶层设计及科学方法，名创入股有 望在日百品类注入更多可能。当前公司调改步入轨道，长期看公司品质零售路 线空间广阔。维持"增持"评级。 财务数据与估值 当前股价：5.16 元 基础数据 | 总股本（百万股） | 9075 | | --- | --- | | 已上市流通股（百万股） | 9075 | | 总市值（十亿元） | 46.8 | | 流通市值（十亿元） | 46.8 | | 每股净资产（MRQ） | 0.5 | | ROE（TTM） | -45.1 | | 资产负债率 | 88.7% | | 广东骏才国际商贸有限公司 主要股东 | | | 主要股东持股比例 | 29.4% | 股价表现 % 1m 6m 12m 绝对 ...

证券研究报告 | 公司点评报告 2025 年 05 月 02 日 比音勒芬（002832.SZ） 营收稳健增长，利润短期承压，期待多品牌成长 消费品/轻工纺服 24 年公司营收、归母净利润同比分别+13.24%、-14.28%，25Q1 同比分别 +1.41%、-8.47%。线上渠道增速领先，线下直营门店持续扩张，短期毛利率承 压&费用率增加拖累净利率下滑。预计 25-27 年归母净利润分别为 7.98 亿元、 8.96 亿元、10.11 亿元，当前市值对应 25PE12X，26PE11X，维持强烈推荐评 级。 ❑ 营收稳健增长，利润指标承压。 （2）门店数量：截至 2024 年末公司门店数量净增加 39 家至 1294 家，其中 直营店 644 家（净增 37 家），店均面积 172.12 平米（+10.54%），店均销 售金额 398.72 万元（+1.05%）；加盟店 650 家（净增 2 家）。 ❑ 毛利率总体承压但线上毛利率提升，费用率增加拖累净利率下滑。 （1）2024 年：公司毛利率同比-1.60pct 至 77.01%，其中线上毛利率 74.63% （+4.01pct），线下直营毛利率 81. ...