证券研究报告 | 公司点评报告 2025 年 05 月 02 日 大北农（002385.SZ） 养殖盈利修复，饲料及种业开局良好 消费品/农林牧渔 25Q1饲料及种业开局良好、养殖盈利改善。公司未来将聚焦强化种业、疫苗动 保等科技产业业务，夯实饲料业务，平稳发展生猪养殖业务。 ❑ 风险提示：猪价表现/公司规模扩张低于预期，突发大规模不可控疫情；自然 灾害，转基因商业化进度不达预期。 财务数据与估值 | 会计年度 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万元) | 33390 | 28767 | 33720 | 35969 | 38193 | | 同比增长 | 3% | -14% | 17% | 7% | 6% | | 营业利润(百万元) | (2485) | 791 | 805 | 984 | 1218 | | 同比增长 | -761% | -132% | 2% | 22% | 24% | | 归母净利润(百万元) | (2174) | 346 | 549 | 725 | 93 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company [3]. Core Views - The company has achieved stable revenue growth, with the consolidation of Shizhu Garden significantly enhancing its performance [2][6]. - The company focuses on integrated development across the tungsten industry chain, leading to both revenue and profit growth [6]. Financial Data and Valuation - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 12,736 million yuan, with a year-on-year decrease of 3%. Revenue is expected to grow to 14,743 million yuan in 2024, reflecting a 16% increase [2][19]. - Operating profit is forecasted to be 637 million yuan in 2023, with a significant increase to 1,139 million yuan in 2024, representing a 79% growth [2][19]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 485 million yuan in 2023, increasing to 939 million yuan in 2024, a 94% rise [2][19]. - Earnings per share (EPS) is projected to rise from 0.21 yuan in 2023 to 0.41 yuan in 2024 [2][19]. - The company’s price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is expected to decrease from 44.9 in 2023 to 23.2 in 2024, indicating improved valuation [2][19]. Revenue Breakdown - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 14,743 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 7.8%. The revenue from cutting tools and tools was 3,189 million yuan, up 4.31% [6]. - The revenue from hard alloy products was 3,356 million yuan, down 2.19%, while refractory metals generated 2,426 million yuan, up 11.68% [6]. - Powder products saw a revenue increase of 32.22%, reaching 4,573 million yuan [6]. Margin Analysis - The overall gross margin for 2024 is 22.07%, an increase of 0.85 percentage points year-on-year. The gross margin for blade products is 33.30%, down 1.72 percentage points [6]. - The gross margin for powder products improved by 5.09 percentage points to 23.61% [6]. Cash Flow and Debt Management - The company reported a net operating cash flow of 900 million yuan in 2024, a significant increase of 750 million yuan year-on-year [6]. - The debt ratio for 2024 is projected at 52.40%, a decrease of 2.51 percentage points from the previous year [6][19]. Future Profit Projections - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 1,094 million yuan, 1,323 million yuan, and 1,476 million yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 19.50 CNY, indicating a potential upside of approximately 22% from the current price of 16.05 CNY [8]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 8.23 billion CNY in Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 35% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 18%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 3.64 billion CNY, up 59% year-on-year and 29% quarter-on-quarter [1]. - The company is expected to benefit from a recovery in the market, which has driven growth in proprietary trading, alongside a restructuring of its asset-liability management and a decrease in interest expenses due to lower funding costs [4][8]. - The brokerage business showed a strong performance with revenues of 1.94 billion CNY in Q1 2025, a 43% increase year-on-year, although it decreased by 22% quarter-on-quarter. The average daily trading volume for equity funds was 1.7465 trillion CNY, up 71% year-on-year [2][8]. Summary by Sections Overall Overview - The company reported total assets of 823.3 billion CNY as of Q1 2025, a 1% increase from the beginning of the year. The return on equity (ROE) was 8.4%, up 2.9 percentage points year-on-year, with a slight increase in operating leverage to 3.36 times [1]. Revenue Breakdown - The revenue contributions from various business segments in Q1 2025 were as follows: proprietary trading (37%), brokerage (26%), credit (13%), asset management (11%), investment banking (7%), and others (6%). Year-on-year changes in these segments were +4%, +2%, +9%, +2%, -3%, and -14% respectively [1]. Fee-based Business - The investment banking segment faced challenges, with revenues of 540 million CNY in Q1 2025, down 6% year-on-year and 27% quarter-on-quarter. The company’s market share in IPO fundraising was 9.26%, ranking third, while it improved its position in refinancing to fifth place with a market share of 6.53% [2][8]. Asset Management - The asset management revenue was 420 million CNY in Q1 2025, a significant decline of 62% year-on-year, primarily due to the sale of AssetMark in Q4 2024. However, the non-monetary scale of its affiliated funds showed growth, with Southern Fund and Huatai-PineBridge Fund increasing by 18% and 58% respectively [3][8]. Funding Business - Proprietary trading revenue reached 2.76 billion CNY in Q1 2025, a 47% increase year-on-year and a 12% increase quarter-on-quarter. The net interest income was 960 million CNY, up 319% year-on-year, while interest expenses decreased by 33% year-on-year [4][8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company [2][6] Core Views - The company aims to achieve a total revenue of 119 billion yuan and a total profit of 12.6 billion yuan in 2025, representing year-on-year growth of 2.8% and 24.4% respectively, with an expected profit growth of 16% after excluding one-time asset impairment losses [6][7] - In Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of 33.02 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.35%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 4.87 billion yuan, a decrease of 17.71% year-on-year, while the non-recurring net profit increased by 24.19% [6][7] - The dairy product industry is expected to improve due to accelerated supply-side adjustments and enhanced demand-side policies, indicating a positive trend in supply and demand [6][7] Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company experienced a revenue decline of 8.24% to 115.78 billion yuan, with a net profit of 8.45 billion yuan, down 18.94% [5][7] - The company’s gross margin for 2024 was 33.9%, an increase of 1.3 percentage points year-on-year, benefiting from a decrease in raw milk costs [5][6] - The company’s cash dividend for 2024 was 7.726 billion yuan, with a payout ratio of 91.4%, significantly higher than previous years [5][6] Segment Performance - In 2024, liquid milk revenue decreased by 12.32% to 75 billion yuan, while infant formula and dairy products saw a revenue increase of 7.53% to 29.675 billion yuan [5][6] - The cold drink segment reported a revenue increase of 11.7% to 10.69 billion yuan, despite a decline in sales volume [5][6] Future Outlook - The company forecasts an EPS of 1.79 yuan for 2025, with a target valuation of 20 times earnings, leading to a market capitalization estimate of 227.8 billion yuan [6][7] - The report indicates that the company is well-positioned for potential growth following the cleanup of its balance sheet from one-time asset impairments [6][7]

证券研究报告 | 公司点评报告 2025 年 04 月 30 日 浙商银行（601916.SH） 息差回升，资产质量稳定 总量研究/银行 浙商银行披露 2025 年一季度报告。25Q1 营业收入、PPOP、归母利润同比增 速分别为-7.07%、-5.32%、0.61%，增速分别较 24A 变动-13.27pct、-10.30pct、 -0.31pct，归母净利润、营收、PPOP 增速均出现回落。累计业绩驱动上，规 模、成本收入比下降、拨备计提为正贡献，净息差收窄、非息收入负增、有效 税率上升为主要负贡献。 核心观点： 亮点： （1）规模稳健增长。资产端，25Q1 公司总资产规模同比增长 8.90%， 增速较 24A 上升 3.12pct，其中贷款规模同比增长 6.85%，增速较 24A 下降 1.35pct。负债端，25Q1 存款规模同比增长 6.03%，增速较 24A 提升 3.16pct。 2025 年存款增长修复，25Q1 单季度存款增量 841 亿元，同比大幅多增 605 亿 元。 （2）净息差回升。公司披露 25Q1 净息差为 1.76%，较 24A 回升 5BP。2024 年全年，公司净息差从 2 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" investment rating for the company [2][5]. Core Views - The company has achieved record high quarterly profits, benefiting from domestic substitution amid the US-China trade dispute. In 2024, the company reported revenue of 882 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.31%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 250 million yuan, up 10.68% [1][10]. - The company is actively pursuing mergers and acquisitions in the semiconductor materials sector to achieve synergistic development, with a planned acquisition of at least 51% of a target company valued at approximately 1.8 billion yuan [5][10]. Summary by Sections Company Profitability - The company has seen continuous improvement in profitability, with a market share increase and record high performance for ten consecutive years. The revenue for 2024 was 882 million yuan, with a net profit of 250 million yuan, both achieving historical highs [9][10]. - The company’s new production facility in Nansha has successfully commenced operations, significantly enhancing production capacity [12][13]. Core Products - The main products include nucleating agents, synthetic hydrotalcite, antioxidants, and composite additives, which are critical materials for achieving domestic production of high-performance resin materials [14][15]. Competitive Advantages - The company boasts a comprehensive product system and superior product performance, with over 300 different models of nucleating agents and other additives available for mass production [20]. - The company has strong R&D capabilities and continuous innovation, supported by a team of highly skilled professionals and partnerships with leading universities [21][22]. - The company has a robust patent portfolio, with 76 valid patents, including 59 invention patents, showcasing its commitment to technological advancement [23][24]. - The company adheres to green and efficient production processes, recognized as a "green factory" and a "zero-waste factory" [25]. - The company has established stable and reliable customer resources, including major energy and chemical companies, ensuring a strong market position [26]. Financial Data and Valuation - The company forecasts revenues of 1.138 billion yuan, 1.4 billion yuan, and 1.735 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with net profits projected at 283 million yuan, 337 million yuan, and 412 million yuan for the same years [6][36]. - The current price-to-earnings (PE) ratios are projected to be 22.9, 19.2, and 15.8 for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [6][36].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" investment rating for Shanxi Fenjiu [6][2] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 36.01 billion with a year-on-year growth of 12.8% and a net profit of 12.24 billion, up 17.3% year-on-year for 2024. For Q1 2025, revenue was 16.52 billion, a 7.7% increase year-on-year, and net profit was 6.65 billion, up 6.2% year-on-year. The company emphasizes stability as the main theme for 2025, adjusting the EPS forecast for 2025-2027 to 11.11, 12.31, and 13.52 respectively, corresponding to a PE of 18x [1][5][2] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported a revenue of 36.01 billion, a 12.8% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 12.24 billion, reflecting a 17.3% growth. The Q4 2024 revenue was 4.65 billion, down 10.2% year-on-year, with a net profit of 0.89 billion, down 11.3% year-on-year. For Q1 2025, revenue reached 16.52 billion, a 7.7% increase year-on-year, and net profit was 6.65 billion, up 6.2% year-on-year [1][5][4] Profitability and Cost Structure - The gross margin for 2024 was 76.2%, up 0.9 percentage points year-on-year. The company focused on high-end products, with revenue from mid-to-high-end liquor reaching 26.53 billion, a 14.3% increase year-on-year. The sales expense ratio was 10.4%, up 0.3 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin improved by 1.3 percentage points to 34.0% [5][1][4] Market Expansion - The revenue from outside Shanxi province reached 22.37 billion in 2024, a 13.8% increase year-on-year, accounting for 62.4% of total revenue. The company is expanding its market presence in the Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta regions [5][1] Pricing and Sales Volume - The average price per ton was 163,000, a 5% increase year-on-year, with total sales volume reaching 221,000 tons, up 7.2% year-on-year. The sales of mid-to-high-end liquor increased by 13.0% year-on-year [5][1] Future Outlook - For 2025, the company aims to maintain stable growth without specifying exact growth targets, focusing on high-quality growth and expanding the consumer base for its clear aroma products [5][1]

证券研究报告 | 公司点评报告 2025 年 04 月 30 日 泡泡玛特（09992.HK） 一季度持续高增，美洲地区增长近九倍 TMT 及中小盘/传媒 事件：公司发布 2025 年一季度经营情况，整体收益同比增长 165-170%。其中， 中国收益同比增长 95-100%；海外收益同比增长 475%-480%。 ❑ 风险提示：新品拓展不及预期、海外推广不及预期、监管及舆情风险。 财务数据与估值 | | | 强烈推荐（维持） 目标估值：NA 当前股价：193.0 港元 基础数据 | 总股本（百万股） | 1343 | | --- | --- | | 香港股（百万股） | 1343 | | 总市值（十亿港元） | 259.2 | | 香港股市值（十亿港元） | 259.2 | | 每股净资产（港元） | 8.0 | | ROE（TTM） | 29.3 | | 资产负债率 | 26.8% | | 主要股东 | GWF Holding Limited | | 主要股东持股比例 | 41.7837% | 股价表现 % 1m 6m 12m 绝对表现 29 186 491 相对表现 35 179 467 资料来源：公司 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Luckin Coffee (LK.O) [3] Core Views - The company reported a significant increase in revenue and profitability in Q1 2025, achieving a revenue of 8.87 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 41.2%, and a GAAP operating profit of 737 million yuan, compared to a loss of 65 million yuan in the previous year [1][8] - The growth in revenue is attributed to an increase in the number of stores and improved same-store sales, with a notable increase in the average transaction value [1][8] - The company has successfully optimized its product mix, leading to a substantial improvement in gross margin, which reached 59.7%, up 6.6 percentage points year-on-year [1][8] Financial Data and Valuation - The projected total revenue for Luckin Coffee is expected to grow from 24.9 billion yuan in 2023 to 57.5 billion yuan in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 14.5% [2] - The adjusted net profit is forecasted to increase from 3.17 billion yuan in 2023 to 6.13 billion yuan in 2027, reflecting a strong growth trajectory [2] - The price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is projected to decrease from 28.1 in 2023 to 14.2 in 2027, indicating improving valuation metrics [2] Store Expansion and User Growth - In Q1 2025, the company opened 1,757 new stores, bringing the total number of stores to 24,097, with a year-on-year increase of 27.9% in store count [1][8] - The average monthly active users reached 74.27 million, representing a year-on-year growth of 24% [1][8] Cost Management and Profitability - The company has effectively reduced its operating expenses, with the self-operated store expense ratio decreasing to 34.3%, down 4.1 percentage points year-on-year [1][8] - The overall operating profit margin improved to 8.3%, up 9.3 percentage points year-on-year, driven by enhanced operational efficiency and gross margin improvements [1][8] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the company is well-positioned to capture market share despite short-term pressures from rising coffee bean prices, thanks to its stable supply chain and cost advantages [8] - The expected net profit for 2025 and 2026 is projected to reach 3.71 billion yuan and 4.66 billion yuan, respectively, with adjusted net profits of 4.07 billion yuan and 5.08 billion yuan [8]

证券研究报告 | 公司点评报告 2025 年 04 月 30 日 中信建投（601066.SH） 整体向好，期待投行弹性 总量研究/非银行金融 25Q1 公司实现营业收入 49.2 亿，同比+15%，环比-28%；归母净利润 18.4 亿， 同比+50%，环比-37%；年化 ROE 为 8.16%，较 24 年-0.1pct；经营杠杆 4.44 倍，较往年明显抬升。 ❑ 公司总资产 6005 亿，较年初+6%；归母净资产 1052 亿，较年初-1%。年化 ROE 为 8.16%，较 24 年-0.1pct；经营杠杆 4.44 倍，较往年明显抬升。自营 / 经 纪 / 投 行 / 资 管 / 其 他 / 信 用 业 务 占 主 营 收 入 比 重 分 别 为 42%/38%/8%/7%/4%/1%，同比分别为+2/+5/-4/-0/+0/-3pct。公司降本成效 显著，25Q1 管理费用 24.3 亿，同比-5%，占营业收入（剔除其他业务收入） 比重为 52%，同比-14pct。 ❑ 收费类业务：经纪资管随行就市，投行仍然低迷。 （1）经纪随行就市。25Q1 经纪收入 17.4 亿，同比+38%，环比-16%。 ...