1. Report Summary - The probability of the divergence between domestic and foreign price trends of iron ore in 2025 is extremely low [4][28] - The supply and demand of iron ore will increase simultaneously in the coming months, with limited pressure to accumulate inventory, and the overall contradiction is not prominent [3][40] - For the arbitrage strategy of long domestic and short foreign, it can be implemented at any time; for the unilateral strategy, it is recommended to buy on dips instead of selling on rallies [6][50] 2. Key Points of Each Section 2.1. Tracking of Domestic - Foreign Price Spread Arbitrage - Futures basis convergence leads to the price convergence of the main contract of DCE iron ore futures and the spot price of imported iron ore [11] - The variable part of monthly import cost is approximately equal to the swap price multiplied by the exchange rate, resulting in the convergence of DCE iron ore futures and (swap price * exchange rate) [11] - The domestic - foreign price spread (DCE main contract - swap * exchange rate) is the observed indicator and actual position of the long domestic and short foreign strategy [11][21] - The historical periods of divergence in domestic - foreign price spread are 2021 Mar - Jul, Oct - Dec and 2022 Feb - Mar, mainly due to non - market factors leading to the weakness of DCE iron ore futures [14][15] - The probability of divergence between domestic and foreign price trends of iron ore in 2025 is extremely low because there is no strong demand for administrative production cut, and it is difficult for domestic production to lead to long - term losses of imports [21][28] 2.2. Outlook of Iron Ore Market in Summer - The demand is the dominant factor in the iron ore market. As of June 12, the daily pig iron output decreased slightly but remained at a high level, and it is expected to increase slightly until early August [29] - The blast furnace profit usually changes one month ahead of the pig iron output. Currently, the blast furnace profit of steel mills is still increasing, which is consistent with the increase in pig iron output indicated by maintenance data [31] - The cumulative global iron ore shipments in 2025 reached 68,170,000 tons, an increase of 104,000 tons year - on - year; the cumulative shipments from Australia and Brazil reached 55,854,000 tons, an increase of 351,000 tons year - on - year [34] - The overall inventory of domestic iron ore has been decreasing and started to accumulate slightly in June, with less pressure on inventory compared to last year [35] - The supply and demand will increase simultaneously in the coming months, with limited pressure to accumulate inventory, and the overall contradiction is not prominent [3][40] 2.3. Summer Strategy Recommendations for Iron Ore - The domestic - foreign price spread (DCE main contract - swap * exchange rate) tends to converge upward as the DCE main contract expires [50] - The historical reasons for the downward fluctuation of the domestic - foreign price spread are mainly non - market factors leading to the weakness of DCE iron ore futures [50] - The risk of DCE iron ore futures (domestic) being significantly weaker than the swap (foreign) lies in production cut of crude steel and abundant domestic production, which are unlikely to happen at present [50] - In terms of single transactions, the near - term can enter the market at any time; in terms of asset portfolio, referring to the annualized return, it can replace other arbitrage portfolios [50] - In terms of time, there is no need to time; it can also enter the market when the import profit (one of the tracking indicators) is low [50] - In the long - term, the supply and demand in 2025 will be in tight balance, the price center is difficult to decline significantly, and the trend of inventory accumulation is expected to form until the fourth quarter. It is no longer recommended to sell on rallies but more inclined to buy on dips. It is more cost - effective to start deploying long positions around $90 [50] - In the short - term, it is not expected to decline significantly as the time when pig iron reaches its peak and then trends downward is still far away; due to the rapid increase in supply, the fundamental of Sep contract of iron ore tends to weaken, so the upside is also limited. It is recommended to gradually establish long positions around 650 for far - term contracts, and sell out - of - the - money call options when the Sep contract is above 830 [51]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The gold cross - market spread structure mainly comes from regional gold price differences and is also affected by exchange - rate expectation changes. Short - term fluctuations in regional gold price differences may still lead to obvious arbitrage opportunities in the gold cross - market spread, but the current opportunities from exchange - rate expectations are small. Future attention can be paid to the impact of changes in US tariff expectations on the gold cross - market spread [3][32] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Spread Market Tracking - Gold, as a global asset, should theoretically have convergent prices in various markets. However, due to exchange - rate fluctuations, tariff policies, transportation costs, and market liquidity differences, cross - market spreads persist. When the COMEX gold price is higher than the SHFE price, forward arbitrage can be carried out; when the domestic price is higher than the international price, reverse arbitrage can be carried out [10] - From January to April, the Sino - US gold spread (Shanghai gold price minus the converted New York gold price) had relatively stable fluctuations with an average of about - 1 yuan/gram, providing basically no obvious arbitrage space. Since May, the spread has fluctuated significantly, with the average rising to 10.2 yuan/gram, creating many opportunities for cross - market spread arbitrage [11] 2. Gold Cross - Market Spread Structure Analysis - The gold cross - market spread is mainly composed of two variables: the price changes of Shanghai gold and New York gold, and the US dollar - to - RMB exchange rate [5][15] - Globally, gold prices generally fluctuate in the same direction. From 2014 - 2025, after removing outliers, the change in the gold cross - market spread was mainly affected by regional gold price fluctuations, with the exchange - rate impact accounting for an average of 11.4% and the gold - price impact accounting for an average of 87.9% [16] - The US dollar - to - RMB exchange rate is one of the factors affecting the Sino - US gold spread, but its impact is relatively smaller than that of regional gold price changes. When the RMB appreciates against the US dollar, the gold spread widens; when the RMB depreciates, the spread narrows. However, arbitrage trading makes the gold cross - market spread tend to converge, and when the exchange rate fluctuates significantly, the impact of the gold price and the exchange rate on the spread is often opposite, offsetting each other [20] 3. Spread Formation Reason Analysis - Regional gold price differences may mainly come from regional policy changes or short - term supply - demand imbalances. For example, in early 2025, the expectation of the US to impose tariffs on imported gold led to a significant widening of the COMEX - London spot gold spread. In early 2020, the COVID - 19 pandemic also caused the Sino - US and Euro - US gold price spreads to widen. In the long term, the gold cross - market spread center may slowly rise [24][25] - Although the impact of exchange - rate changes on the gold cross - market spread is small, large exchange - rate changes can cause short - term spread fluctuations. The gold cross - market spread implies the market's expectation of the exchange rate. When the market has no obvious expectation of exchange - rate changes, the exchange - rate impact on the gold cross - market spread is weak. Currently, there is no obvious deviation between the exchange rate implied by the gold price and the actual offshore exchange rate, so it has little impact on the gold spread [28][29] 4. Gold Cross - Market Spread Summary - The report analyzes the gold cross - market spread structure, formation reasons, and future development expectations. The spread structure mainly comes from regional gold price differences and exchange - rate expectation changes. Short - term regional gold price differences may bring arbitrage opportunities, while current exchange - rate expectations offer few opportunities. Future attention can be paid to US tariff expectations [32]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the easing of global trade frictions, the market focuses on the silver catch - up market. Short - term catch - up expectations may drive the silver price to break through upwards, but there are still uncertainties in interest rate cuts and economic expectations, and sudden risk events may increase the long - position holding pressure [2] - In 2025, the silver price is expected to be mostly volatile throughout the year, with the Shanghai silver central reference at 8,000 yuan/kg. Fed's long - term loose monetary policy and expected 2 interest rate cuts this year drive the silver price, but in the middle and late stages of interest rate cuts, the gold - silver ratio rises, and the industrial demand for silver is expected to decline negatively in 2025, which may put pressure on the silver price [3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review - In the first quarter of 2025, Trump's policies and increased market expectations of Fed's interest rate cuts to 4 times promoted the silver price to run strongly. In the second quarter, Trump's tariff policies and Fed's attitude of not being eager to cut interest rates led to a short - term silver price plunge, but later the suspension of tariff implementation and the easing of Sino - US trade relations pushed the silver price to a new high in June [11] 2. Silver Catch - up Logic 2.1 Gold - Silver Ratio - The gold - silver ratio reflects the price relationship between gold and silver. Its central value has been rising. The change is affected by factors such as the US dollar credit and economic expectations. A decline in the gold - silver ratio usually occurs in the economic expansion stage, while an increase occurs in the stage of rising economic uncertainty [15][20] 2.2 Comparison of Gold and Silver Performance in Bull Markets - There have been three major bull markets in the history of gold and silver prices. In the first stage of each bull market, the gold price usually starts to rise first, and in the second stage, the silver price is likely to start first. In 5 out of 6 upward stages, the silver price outperformed the gold price [22] 2.3 Conditions for Silver to Start Catch - up - When the future economic certainty increases or there is no recession expectation and inflation is expected to rise, the gold - silver ratio will usually be repaired downward. Currently, it is not a suitable stage for silver catch - up trading due to economic uncertainties and uncertainties in Fed's interest rate cuts this year [26][27] 3. Investment Demand Analysis 3.1 Real Interest Rate Analysis - The real interest rate represented by TIPS yield is negatively correlated with the silver ETP position. The real interest rate is affected by the nominal interest rate and inflation expectations. The market's expectation of Fed's interest rate cuts this year has changed, and currently, the market expects 2 interest rate cuts this year [33] 3.2 Future Investment Demand Analysis - Fed is facing a dilemma of rising inflation and economic downturn due to Trump's new policies, and there are many variables in interest rate cuts this year. However, the long - term loose monetary policy is expected to support the long - term investment demand for silver [38] 4. Industrial Demand Analysis 4.1 Photovoltaic Silver Demand Analysis - In 2025, the expected growth rate of photovoltaic silver demand turns negative, mainly affected by the innovation of photovoltaic cell technology and the change of photovoltaic policies. The innovation of photovoltaic cell technology has a significant impact, and policy changes may also reduce the domestic photovoltaic installation expectations [40][41][44] 5. Market Outlook - In 2025, the silver price is expected to be mostly volatile, with the Shanghai silver central reference at 8,000 yuan/kg. The long - term loose monetary policy and expected interest rate cuts support the silver price, but factors such as the rising gold - silver ratio in the middle and late stages of interest rate cuts and the decline in industrial demand may put pressure on the silver price. The tariff policy is a key factor affecting the silver price [48]

Group 1 - The report indicates that June economic data showed a slowdown, with retail and personal consumption expenditures falling short of expectations, and Q1 GDP revised down to -0.5%, reflecting the downward pressure from tariffs on the economy [2][3][4] - Despite the economic slowdown, employment data remained resilient, leading the market to maintain a "soft landing" outlook for the economy [2][3] - In June, U.S. stock markets reached new historical highs, while U.S. Treasury yields retreated from their highs [2][3] Group 2 - The report highlights that the 30-year, 20-year, 10-year, and 2-year U.S. Treasury yields changed by +25.3, +24, +23.9, and +29.5 basis points respectively by the end of June [3][12] - The 30Y-10Y Treasury yield spread remained unchanged at 49.8 basis points at the end of the month [3][12] Group 3 - The macro environment analysis indicates that the FOMC maintained the policy interest rate at 4%-4.25% in June, with a more positive outlook on economic uncertainty [4][66] - The report notes a significant divergence among FOMC members regarding the expected rate cuts and inflation outlook for the year [4][66] Group 4 - The report projects that the attractiveness of U.S. Treasuries to foreign investors may decline due to the yield on U.S. Treasuries being lower than that of European and Japanese government bonds after currency hedging costs [6][19] - It suggests that the long-end U.S. Treasury rates have stabilized, with the 10-year Treasury still offering high allocation value in the 4.4%-4.5% range [6][19] Group 5 - The report recommends short-term trading within the 4.2%-4.5% range while waiting for a turning point in interest rates, such as significantly weaker-than-expected non-farm payroll data or inflation data [6][19] - Specific recommended instruments include TLT, TMF, and 10-year and longer Treasury futures [6][19]

Group 1 - The report highlights that the Chinese capital market showed mixed performance in May, with the Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Component Index increasing by 2.42% and 3.27% respectively, closing at 3457.8 and 10476.3 [3][11] - The bond market experienced a positive response as potential negative variables related to tariff negotiations and regulatory concerns were resolved, leading to a greater decline in short-term rates compared to long-term rates [3][11] - The report suggests that while there may not be significant directional opportunities in the bond market, the injection of incremental funds from insurance, wealth management, and banks in July could lead to a gradual decline in interest rates [6][11] Group 2 - The macroeconomic environment in May showed a mixed picture, with GDP growth estimated at approximately 5.35% year-on-year, driven by strong consumer demand, while exports, investments, and real estate sales showed varying degrees of slowdown [5][33] - The manufacturing PMI for June recorded at 49.7%, indicating a slight recovery, although employment and service sector indicators showed a decline [5][33] - The report notes that the central bank's monetary policy stance has become clearer, with expectations of no immediate rate cuts, reflecting a more hawkish tone in the second quarter meeting [5][82] Group 3 - The report indicates that government bond issuance pressure in June was higher than in May, with a net issuance of 33,802 billion yuan, which is significantly more than the previous year [17][18] - The anticipated net issuance of government bonds in July is expected to range between 1.46 to 1.60 trillion yuan, maintaining a relatively high level [18] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the impact of external economic factors, particularly U.S. monetary policy, on the Chinese bond market [86][90]

Group 1: Market Overview - The total repurchase amount for the week was HKD 6.61 billion, a significant improvement from HKD 3.96 billion the previous week[12] - The number of companies repurchasing shares increased to 55 from 53 in the previous week[12] - Tencent Holdings (0700.HK) led the repurchase with an amount of HKD 2.50 billion[12] Group 2: Top Repurchasing Companies - The top three companies by repurchase amount were Tencent Holdings (HKD 2.50 billion), Chow Tai Fook (HKD 1.57 billion), and AIA Group (HKD 1.15 billion)[12] - Chow Tai Fook's repurchase accounted for 1.23% of its total share capital[11] - AIA Group's repurchase represented 0.16% of its total share capital[11] Group 3: Industry Distribution - The majority of repurchase amounts were concentrated in the Information Technology, Financial, and Consumer Discretionary sectors, driven by major repurchases from Tencent, Chow Tai Fook, and AIA[15] - The Information Technology and Healthcare sectors had the highest number of companies initiating repurchases, with 12 companies each[15] - The Consumer Discretionary sector ranked second with 9 companies participating in repurchases[15] Group 4: Significance of Share Buybacks - Share buybacks are defined as companies using cash to repurchase their own shares from the secondary market[24] - Large-scale buyback trends often occur during bear markets, signaling that companies believe their stock prices are undervalued[24] - Historical data shows that buyback waves in the Hong Kong market since 2008 have typically been followed by upward market trends[24]

Production Sector - The coke oven operating rate is at 73.40%, down 0.54% from the previous week[7] - The blast furnace operating rate increased to 83.84%, up 0.45% from the previous week[7] - The PTA operating rate decreased to 78.61%, down 4.39% from the previous week[7] Consumption Sector - Weekly box office revenue is 28,100,000 CNY, a decrease of 9,000,000 CNY from the previous week[7] - Average daily retail sales of passenger cars are 60,333.45 units, down 593.05 units from the previous week[7] - Average daily wholesale sales of passenger cars are 75,186.70 units, down 371.50 units from the previous week[7] Real Estate and Infrastructure - The transaction area of commercial housing in 30 major cities is 205.32 million square meters, an increase of 28.45% from the previous week[7] - The land transaction premium rate in 100 major cities is 7.09%, up 5.64% from the previous week[7] - The area of land sold in 100 major cities is 828.87 million square meters, down 428.98 million square meters from the previous week[7] Trade and Inflation - The Shanghai export container freight index is 1,869.59, down 218.65 from the previous week[8] - The average wholesale price of pork is 20.33 CNY/kg, up 0.07 CNY from the previous week[8] - The consumer price index (CPI) shows overall weak food prices, while the producer price index (PPI) indicates a rebound in domestic and international commodity prices[40][42] Transportation - The subway passenger volume in Beijing is 1,023.73 million, an increase of 58.08% from the previous week[8] - The number of domestic flights (excluding Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan) is 12,848.43, up 432.71 from the previous week[8]

Group 1: Market Performance Review - The Hong Kong stock market experienced a significant pullback this week due to escalating geopolitical conflicts and the Hong Kong dollar approaching the weak side guarantee, with the Hang Seng Index, Hang Seng Composite Index, and Hang Seng Tech Index declining by -1.70%, -1.52%, and -2.03% respectively [3][13] - Most primary industry sectors saw declines, with the healthcare sector experiencing a substantial drop of nearly 8%, the largest among all sectors, while only the information technology sector saw a slight increase of 0.2% [3][13] - As of the end of this week, the 5-year PE (TTM) valuation percentile of the Hang Seng Composite Index rose to 72%, exceeding the 5-year average [3] Group 2: Macroeconomic Environment - The macroeconomic environment indicates that economic activity data for May continued to weaken, with consumption performance exceeding expectations mainly due to shopping festival timing and subsidies, raising questions about sustainability [3][48] - The Federal Reserve's June meeting maintained the benchmark interest rate, aligning with expectations, but conveyed a hawkish tone emphasizing the impact of tariffs on U.S. inflation [3][46] Group 3: Sector Outlook - The report suggests a favorable outlook for sectors that are relatively prosperous and benefit from policy support, including automotive, new consumption, innovative pharmaceuticals, and technology [3][48] - It also highlights the importance of low-valuation state-owned enterprises that are stable in performance and stock price, as well as local Hong Kong banks, telecommunications, and utility dividend stocks that are relatively independent and benefit from the interest rate cut cycle [3][48] Group 4: Buyback Statistics - The buyback market showed improvement this week, with 55 companies participating, up from 53 the previous week, and total buyback amounts reaching 6.61 billion HKD, a significant increase from 3.96 billion HKD last week [3][27] - Tencent Holdings (0700.HK) led the buybacks with 2.5 billion HKD, followed by Chow Tai Fook (1929.HK) with 1.57 billion HKD, and AIA Group (1299.HK) with 1.15 billion HKD [3][27] Group 5: Southbound Capital Flow - The top net buying companies through the Southbound Stock Connect included China Construction Bank (0939.HK) with a net buy of 3.48 billion HKD, Meituan-W (3690.HK) with 2.49 billion HKD, and China Merchants Bank (3968.HK) with 2.23 billion HKD [3][34] - Conversely, the top net selling companies included Tencent Holdings (0700.HK) with a net sell of 4.81 billion HKD and Alibaba-W (9988.HK) with 4.38 billion HKD [3][35]

Group 1: Top Net Buy/Sell Companies - The top net buy company is China Construction Bank (0939.HK) with a net buy amount of 34.80 billion CNY, increasing holdings by 450,164,470 shares[8] - Meituan-W (3690.HK) ranks second with a net buy of 24.87 billion CNY, with 19,338,868 shares added[8] - Tencent Holdings (0700.HK) is the top net sell company, with a net sell amount of -48.10 billion CNY, reducing holdings by 9,515,111 shares[9] Group 2: Industry Distribution of Net Buy/Sell - Financial sector shows significant net buying, led by China Construction Bank and China Life Insurance, indicating strong investor confidence in financial stocks[8][9] - The technology sector, represented by Tencent and Xiaomi, experienced substantial net selling, reflecting potential investor concerns about growth prospects in this industry[9] - The consumer discretionary sector, including Meituan and BYD, also saw mixed results with both net buying and selling activities, suggesting varied investor sentiment[8][9] Group 3: Active Stocks - The most active stock in the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect is Pop Mart (9992.HK) with a total trading volume of 40.19 billion CNY and a net sell of -6.40 billion CNY[18] - In the Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect, Meituan (3690.HK) had a trading volume of 34.09 billion CNY with a net sell of -4.31 billion CNY[19] - The trading activity indicates high volatility in these stocks, with significant fluctuations in net buying and selling over the week[18][19]

Production Sector - Coke oven operating rate decreased to 73.94%, down 0.97% from the previous week[7] - High furnace operating rate slightly decreased to 83.39%, down 0.15% from the previous week[7] - Full tire steel operating rate fell to 61.24%, down 2.23% from the previous week[7] Consumption Sector - Weekly box office revenue dropped to 37,100,000 CNY, a decrease of 10,900,000 CNY from the previous week[7] - Average daily retail sales of passenger cars decreased to 60,926.5 units, down 1,697.1 units from the previous week[7] - Average daily wholesale sales of passenger cars fell to 75,558.2 units, down 1,809 units from the previous week[7] Real Estate and Infrastructure - Transaction area of commercial housing in 30 major cities increased to 173.64 million square meters, up 31.92% from the previous week[7] - Transaction area of second-hand housing in major cities rose to 226,095.73 square meters, an increase of 29.5% from the previous week[7] - Land transaction area in 100 major cities decreased to 822.47 million square meters, down 69.19 million square meters from the previous week[7] Trade and Inflation - Shanghai export container freight index fell to 2,088.24, down 152.11 from the previous week[8] - China export container freight index increased to 1,243.05, up 88.07 from the previous week[8] - Average wholesale price of pork decreased to 20.26 CNY/kg, down 0.2% from the previous week[8] Transportation - Beijing subway passenger volume increased to 941.01 million trips, up 23.35% from the previous week[8] - Shanghai subway passenger volume rose to 1,003.29 million trips, an increase of 79.14 million trips from the previous week[8] - Domestic flight numbers decreased to 12,415.71 flights, down 118.29 from the previous week[8]