Group 1 - The overall outlook for the Hong Kong stock market remains cautious but optimistic, with a focus on sectors benefiting from policy support such as automotive, new consumption, innovative pharmaceuticals, and technology [3][6] - The market showed resilience in July, with the Hang Seng Index, Hang Seng Index, and Hang Seng Technology Index recording monthly changes of +4.52%, +2.91%, and +2.83% respectively, despite economic pressures [4][14] - All primary sectors in the Hang Seng Index experienced gains in July, particularly the healthcare sector, which surged over 20% due to favorable policies and improved performance [4][14] Group 2 - The macroeconomic environment for the Hong Kong market is characterized by weak fundamentals, a mixed funding environment, and a cautious sentiment among investors [5][6] - The net inflow of southbound funds in July reached a record high of 866.8 billion HKD, surpassing the total for the entire year of 2024, indicating strong demand for Hong Kong stocks [23][24] - The valuation levels of the Hang Seng Index have risen, with a PE (TTM) of 12.04 at the end of July, reflecting a recovery from previously undervalued conditions [19][24] Group 3 - The report highlights the importance of monitoring the impact of U.S.-China trade tensions on sectors with significant exposure to U.S. markets, suggesting a cautious approach to investments in these areas [3][6] - The report emphasizes the need for investors to focus on sectors that are relatively independent of external pressures and benefit from the local economic environment, such as Hong Kong banks, telecommunications, and utilities [3][6]

Group 1: Top Net Buy/Sell Companies - The top net buy company is BYD Company Limited (1211.HK) with a net buy amount of 14.245 billion CNY, representing a significant increase of 122,586,413 shares[8] - The second highest net buy is the Tracker Fund of Hong Kong (2800.HK) with a net buy amount of 6.866 billion CNY, with 274,875,500 shares acquired[8] - The top net sell company is China Mobile Limited (0941.HK) with a net sell amount of -2.151 billion CNY, reflecting a decrease of 25,038,050 shares[9] Group 2: Industry Distribution of Net Buy/Sell - The financial sector shows strong activity with major net buys from China Construction Bank (0939.HK) and China Life Insurance (2628.HK), totaling 3.020 billion CNY and 2.416 billion CNY respectively[8] - The consumer discretionary sector is also prominent, with significant net buys from BYD and Li Auto (2015.HK), amounting to 14.245 billion CNY and 2.137 billion CNY respectively[8] - In contrast, the telecommunications sector, led by China Mobile, shows a notable net sell, indicating a potential shift in investor sentiment[9] Group 3: Active Stocks - Meituan-W (3690.HK) is the most active stock in the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect with a total trading volume of 4.049 billion CNY and a net buy of 1.196 billion CNY[19] - Alibaba Group (9988.HK) follows closely with a trading volume of 3.790 billion CNY and a net buy of 0.654 billion CNY[19] - Xiaomi Corporation (1810.HK) also shows strong activity with a trading volume of 3.694 billion CNY and a net buy of 0.368 billion CNY[19]

Group 1: Weekly Buyback Statistics - The total buyback amount for the week was 900 million HKD, a decrease from 1.06 billion HKD the previous week[11] - A total of 34 companies conducted buybacks this week, down from 43 companies last week[11] - HSBC Holdings (0005.HK) led the buybacks with an amount of 740.86 million HKD, followed by China Eastern Airlines (0670.HK) with 29.95 million HKD[11] Group 2: Industry Distribution of Buybacks - The financial sector accounted for the majority of buyback amounts, primarily driven by HSBC's significant repurchase[14] - The information technology sector had the highest number of companies engaging in buybacks, with 7 firms participating[14] - The industrial and consumer discretionary sectors followed, each with 6 companies conducting buybacks[14] Group 3: Individual Company Buyback Data - Australia New Oriental Education (1752.HK) had the highest buyback ratio at 12.19% of its total shares[15] - IGG (0799.HK) and Xinyi International (0732.HK) had buyback ratios of 0.21% and 0.22%, respectively[15] - The buyback amounts for other notable companies included 1.73 million HKD for Mengniu Dairy (2319.HK) and 1.37 million HKD for Vitasoy International (0345.HK)[15] Group 4: Significance of Buybacks - Buybacks are defined as companies repurchasing their own shares from the market, often signaling that the stock is undervalued[22] - Large-scale buyback trends typically occur during bear markets, indicating companies' confidence in their stock's intrinsic value[22] - Historical data shows that the Hong Kong market has experienced five buyback waves since 2008, all coinciding with subsequent market recoveries[22]

Group 1: Top Net Buy/Sell Companies - The top net buy company is China Life (2628.HK) with a net buy amount of 40.30 billion CNY, acquiring 177,142,212 shares[8] - The second highest net buy is China Construction Bank (0939.HK) with a net buy of 25.53 billion CNY, acquiring 307,628,796 shares[8] - The top net sell company is China Mobile (0941.HK) with a net sell amount of -29.03 billion CNY, selling 33,535,578 shares[9] Group 2: Industry Distribution of Net Buy/Sell - The financial sector shows significant net buying activity, led by China Life and China Construction Bank, indicating strong investor confidence in financial stocks[8][9] - The technology sector, represented by Kuaishou (1024.HK) and SMIC (0981.HK), also sees substantial net buying, with Kuaishou netting 19.03 billion CNY[8] - Conversely, the telecommunications sector, particularly China Mobile, experienced notable net selling, reflecting potential investor concerns in this area[9] Group 3: Active Stocks - The most active stock in the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect is the盈富基金 (2800.HK) with a total trading volume of 49.37 billion CNY and a net buy of 49.02 billion CNY[18] - SMIC (0981.HK) is also among the top active stocks with a trading volume of 40.80 billion CNY but a net sell of -6.84 billion CNY, indicating volatility[18] - Tencent Holdings (0700.HK) shows significant trading activity with a total volume of 22.47 billion CNY and a net buy of 2.48 billion CNY, suggesting ongoing interest[18]

Market Performance Review - The Hong Kong stock market showed strong performance this week, with the Hang Seng Index, Hang Seng Composite Index, and Hang Seng Tech Index increasing by 2.45%, 2.27%, and 2.51% respectively [3][10] - Most primary industry sectors saw gains, with only the telecommunications sector experiencing a slight decline [10][13] - The industrial and materials sectors had the highest weekly gains, both around 8%, while energy, industrial, information technology, and real estate sectors also saw increases exceeding 4% [10][13] Valuation Levels - As of the end of this week, the 5-year PE (TTM) valuation percentile for the Hang Seng Composite Index is at 79%, which is above the 5-year average [3] Buyback Statistics - The total buyback amount this week was 900 million HKD, a decrease from 1.06 billion HKD the previous week [25] - The number of companies engaging in buybacks this week was 34, down from 43 the previous week [25][28] - HSBC Holdings (0005.HK) led the buybacks with an amount of 740 million HKD, followed by China Eastern Airlines (0670.HK) with 30 million HKD [24][25] Southbound Fund Flow - Southbound funds saw a net inflow exceeding 30 billion HKD this week, with total inflows for the year surpassing the total for the previous year [42] - The top net bought companies included China Life (2628.HK) with a net purchase of 4.03 billion HKD and China Construction Bank (0939.HK) with 2.55 billion HKD [32] - Conversely, the top net sold companies included China Mobile (0941.HK) with a net sale of 2.90 billion HKD and the Tracker Fund of Hong Kong (2800.HK) with 2.30 billion HKD [33] Macroeconomic Environment - The overall profitability of the Hong Kong market is highly synchronized with the economic conditions in mainland China, as over 80% of profits come from Chinese companies [37][38] - Recent economic data shows improvements in industrial profits, but sustainability remains in question, particularly when excluding the automotive sector [42] - The market is closely monitoring the impact of U.S. economic data and Federal Reserve interest rate decisions on the funding environment [39][40]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Chinese economy had a good start in the first half of the year, and it is not difficult to achieve the annual target of 5%. The market's expectation of strong policies is rising, and the improvement of risk appetite may cause the bond market pricing to remain entangled. Given the limited space for adding duration, the market needs time to wait for incremental funds to digest the existing supply. During this process, the decline in capital interest rates may reopen the interest rate spread space, and continuing to explore coupon assets may be the best strategy [5]. - In the second quarter, GDP increased by 5.2% year - on - year, higher than expected, and the economy in the first half achieved an unexpected growth rate of 5.3%. The economic data in June continued the characteristic of "strong supply and weak demand" since the first quarter. The exchange rate pressure is relatively controllable in the short term, and the loose monetary policy will continue to cooperate with fiscal bond issuance in the second half of the year [68]. - In July, there are few foreseeable negative factors. The fundamental data is still mixed, and the indication of the interest rate direction is not strong. The smooth downward trend of long - term interest rates may occur after the cross - quarter period. High - cost - performance varieties can be preferentially selected [67]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 Bond Market Performance Review - **Interest Rate Bond Market**: The curve became slightly steeper, and long - term interest rates showed a V - shaped trend during the week. The yields of 10 - year and 30 - year treasury bond active bonds decreased by 0.2 and 0.3 bps to 1.67% and 1.88% respectively, and the yield of 1 - year treasury bond decreased by 2.8 bps to 1.34%. The yields of 1 - year, 3 - year, and 7 - year interest rate bonds decreased by 2bp, 1bp, and 1bp respectively, the yields of 5 - year and 10 - year bonds were flat compared with the previous week, and the yield of 30 - year bonds increased slightly by 1bp. The yield curve of policy - bank bonds also changed little, with only the 1 - year, 5 - year, and 7 - year yields decreasing by 2bp, 1bp, and 1bp [11][14]. - **Credit Bond Market**: The yields of 1 - year, 3 - year, and 5 - year AA + implicit urban investment bonds decreased by 2bp, 3bp, and 1bp respectively; the yields of 1 - year, 3 - year, and 5 - year AAA - secondary capital bonds decreased by about 2bp [14]. 3.2 Bond Market Primary Issuance Situation - **Local Bonds**: This week, 251.2 billion yuan of local bonds were issued, with a net issuance of 163.4 billion yuan, including 27.6 billion yuan of new general bonds, 161.4 billion yuan of new special bonds (including 98.4 billion yuan of special special bonds), 62.1 billion yuan of ordinary refinancing bonds, and 0 billion yuan of special refinancing bonds [19]. - **Treasury Bonds**: This week, 243.3 billion yuan of treasury bonds were issued, with a net issuance of 58.2 billion yuan, including 123 billion yuan of special treasury bonds [19]. - **Policy - Bank Bonds**: This week, 162 billion yuan of policy - bank bonds were issued, with a net issuance of - 65.4 billion yuan [19]. 3.3 Capital Market Situation - **Funding Tightening and Central Bank Intervention**: Affected by the tax period, the capital market tightened rapidly. The central bank increased the investment to ease the market. On the first day of the tax period (July 15), the overnight interest rate jumped about 10bp. R001 and DR001 quickly rose above 1.50%, reaching 1.57% and 1.53% respectively; R007 and DR007 also rose to 1.59% and 1.57% respectively, with increases of 5bp and 3bp. With the support of the central bank's large - scale capital investment, the capital market gradually stabilized, and the overnight interest rate returned below 1.5% [25]. - **Interest Rate Changes**: The weekly average values of R001 and R007 increased by 13bp and 3bp respectively compared with the previous week. The overnight and one - week Shibor interest rates closed at 1.46% and 1.49%, changing by + 15.3bp and + 4bp respectively compared with the previous week; the overnight and one - week CNH Hibor interest rates closed at 1.42% and 1.62%, changing by - 20bp and + 0.4bp respectively compared with the previous week [5][25]. - **Certificate of Deposit Yields**: After the end of the tax period, most certificate of deposit yields decreased. The yields of 3 - month, 6 - month, and 1 - year certificates of deposit decreased by 2bp, 2bp, and 1bp respectively to 1.54%, 1.58%, and 1.62%. The weighted issuance period of inter - bank certificates of deposit was compressed to 8.3 months, compared with 8.9 months in the previous week. Under the background of the gradual tightening of the capital market during the tax period, the trading volume of inter - bank pledged repurchase decreased, with the average trading volume dropping from 8.21 trillion yuan in the previous week to 7.24 trillion yuan [28]. 3.4 China's Bond Market Macro - environment Tracking and Outlook - **Economic Fundamentals** - **Foreign Trade**: In June, exports increased by 5.8% year - on - year, remaining stable compared with the 6% increase from January to May. The trade surplus in June was 114.77 billion US dollars, remaining at a high level. Exports to ASEAN, India, Africa, and Latin America increased by 16.8%, 9.4%, 34.8%, and - 2.1% respectively year - on - year; exports to the US decreased by 16.1% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing compared with the previous value. The export growth rate of labor - intensive products continued to be low, while products such as general machinery and ships with relative competitive advantages had a relatively fast export growth rate [33][36]. - **Social Financing**: In June, the monthly new social financing was 4.2 trillion yuan, an increase of 900.8 billion yuan year - on - year. The end - of - month growth rate was 8.9% (previous value: 8.7%). Entity credit, government bond financing, and foreign currency loans improved significantly year - on - year [37]. - **Entity Credit**: In June, entity credit increased by 2.4 trillion yuan, an increase of 171 billion yuan year - on - year. The improvement of enterprise short - term loans was obvious. In the first half of the year, household loans increased by 1.17 trillion yuan, and enterprise loans increased by 11.57 trillion yuan [43]. - **Money Supply**: In June, M1 increased by 4.6% year - on - year (previous value: 2.3%), and M2 increased by 8.3% year - on - year, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous value [46]. - **Industrial Added Value**: In June, the industrial added value increased by 6.8% year - on - year, reaching a new high in the past three months. The growth rate of emerging industries was faster than that of traditional industries [47]. - **Social Consumption**: In June, the year - on - year growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods was 4.8%, significantly lower than the previous value. Most optional consumption items declined, but automobile retail improved [51]. - **Fixed - Asset Investment**: In June, the year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment was 0.5%, lower than the previous value. The year - on - year growth rates of manufacturing, large - scale infrastructure, and real estate all declined to varying degrees [58]. - **Real Estate**: The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of real estate development investment was - 11.2%. The cumulative year - on - year growth rates of new construction, construction, and completion were - 20%, - 9.1%, and - 14.8% respectively. The new construction and construction growth rates both declined [62]. - **Unemployment Rate**: In June, the national urban survey unemployment rate was 5%, the same as the previous value [62]. - **Monetary Policy**: The central bank's open market operations this week resulted in a net capital withdrawal of 0.5 trillion yuan, including a net withdrawal of 0.4 trillion yuan from reverse repurchases and 0.1 trillion yuan from MLF. The outlook for the second half of the year is that the central bank will maintain a loose tone, and liquidity is likely to remain loose [5][65]. - **Exchange Rate**: The US dollar index has been below 100 for the past week, and the offshore RMB has continued to appreciate. The pressure on RMB depreciation is relatively controllable in the short term, and external shocks will not restrict the intensity of monetary easing in the short term [65][68]. 3.5 China's Bond Market Weekly Summary and Outlook - **Fundamental Outlook**: The economy in the first half of the year had a good start, but the data indicating domestic demand such as nominal GDP, CPI, and household loans were still weak. New policy clues or signals are crucial for the short - term macro - environment [68]. - **Monetary Policy Outlook**: The effective demand in the economy is insufficient, and the loose monetary policy will continue [67]. - **Bond Market Outlook**: In July, there are few negative factors. The smooth downward trend of long - term interest rates may occur after the cross - quarter period. High - cost - performance varieties can be preferentially selected [67].

Group 1 - The report indicates that the U.S. Treasury market experienced upward pressure on yields due to resilient consumer spending and inflation data, with the 10-year Treasury yield increasing by 0.6 basis points during the week [3][12][15] - The June CPI rose to 2.7%, slightly above expectations, while core CPI was at 2.9%, below expectations, indicating mixed inflation signals [6][56] - The Federal Reserve may misjudge the inflation situation, suggesting that long-term U.S. Treasuries still hold investment value, particularly in the 4.4%-4.5% range for the 10-year Treasury [5][76] Group 2 - The supply side of the Treasury market remains stable, with the Treasury Department maintaining its issuance structure and not significantly increasing long-term debt issuance [19][21] - The Treasury's net financing scale for Q2 is estimated at $514 billion, with Q3 expected to be $554 billion, indicating a manageable supply environment [25][21] - Demand for U.S. Treasuries remains high, with short positions at historical highs, reflecting ongoing basis trading and swap trading activities [26][30] Group 3 - The liquidity in the Treasury market is observed to be ample, with the average daily trading volume of SOFR rising to approximately $2.3 trillion [39][45] - The ON RRP usage remains high, indicating continued liquidity in the market, with reserves increasing by $33 billion to $3.38 trillion [45][44] - The implied volatility index for the Treasury market has slightly increased, but overall liquidity pressure remains low [48][39] Group 4 - The macroeconomic environment shows that inflationary pressures are present but are expected to remain moderate without significant supply shocks [66][75] - The report highlights that the labor market shows signs of structural weakness despite low unemployment rates, which may lead to increased pressure on the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates [77][75] - The potential for a shift in monetary policy is influenced by political pressures and the need to address fiscal deficits, particularly in light of the recent tax policies [76][73]

Group 1 - The bond market experienced a rebound with long-term government bonds (10-year and 30-year) rising by 2.5 basis points to 1.67% and 1.88% respectively, while the 1-year government bond increased by 3.4 basis points to 1.37% [3][12][15] - The CPI for June showed a year-on-year increase of 0.1%, while the PPI decreased by 3.6%, indicating a widening decline primarily due to falling prices in the black series and construction materials [6][42] - The central bank's recent actions included a net withdrawal of 1.7 trillion yuan from the open market, with a focus on reverse repos, and a net payment of 0.3 trillion yuan in government bonds [39][42] Group 2 - The bond market outlook for July suggests limited negative factors, with a preference for high cost-performance varieties, as the fundamental data remains mixed [41][42] - The bond yield curve shows a steepening in the 3-5 year segment and a flattening in the 5-7 year segment, indicating that the 5-year point may serve as a key target for leverage strategies [6][41] - The issuance of local government bonds reached 231.8 billion yuan this week, with a net issuance of 130.3 billion yuan, while national bonds issued amounted to 293.2 billion yuan, netting 193.1 billion yuan [20][39]

Group 1: Top Net Buy/Sell Companies - Meituan-W (3690.HK) had the highest net buy amount of ¥34.74 billion with a holding change of 28,948,209 shares[8] - Alibaba-W (9988.HK) recorded the largest net sell amount of -¥20.13 billion with a holding change of -19,157,265 shares[9] - Construction Bank (0939.HK) saw a net buy of ¥26.31 billion, ranking second in net buys[8] Group 2: Industry Distribution - The financial sector was prominent in net buys, with Construction Bank and ZhongAn Online contributing significantly[8] - The consumer discretionary sector, led by Meituan-W and Li Auto-W, also showed strong net buying activity[8] - In net sells, the financial sector, including Alibaba-W and China Merchants Bank, dominated the list[9] Group 3: Active Stocks - Guotai Junan International (1788.HK) was the most active stock in the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect with a total trading volume of ¥103.99 billion[19] - Alibaba-W (9988.HK) had a significant trading volume of ¥37.09 billion but recorded a net sell of -¥9.13 billion[19] - Meituan-W (3690.HK) was also active with a trading volume of ¥23.18 billion and a net buy of ¥4.02 billion[19]

1 港股市场策略周报 - 投资要点 l 港股市场表现回顾： 港股市场策略周报 2025.7.7-2025.7.13 | 分析师： | 沈凡超 | | --- | --- | | 中央编号： | BTT231 | | 联系电话： | 852-4623 5564 | | 邮箱： | hector@cnzsqh.hk | n 中美关系缓和、官方反内卷叠加南向资金流入改善，上周港股市场引来反弹。本周恒生综指/恒生指数/恒生科技分别 +1.09%/+0.93%/+0.62%。本周市场一级行业板块多数收涨，仅必选消费、公用事业和原材料业收跌。 n 截至本周末，恒生综指的5年PE（TTM）估值分位点为77%，估值水平超5年均值。 2 l 港股市场宏观环境： n 基本面：6月通胀表现仍然偏弱，后续利好因素有望支撑下半年PPI改善，关注官方"反内卷"治理企业低价无序竞争。 n 资金面：中美关系近期有所缓和；美国降息预期分歧较大，降息节点与力度不确定性仍较大；本周南向资金面逆势加码。 l 港股市场展望： n 基本面：国内经济数据显示经济活动表现仍然承压；政策面：政策组合加力应对内需走弱，近期官方重点"反内卷"； 资金面：南向资金 ...