中债策略周报 2025.3.31-2025.4.6 分析师： 曹潮 中央编号： BVH841 联系电话： 852-96581360 邮箱： caochao@cnzsqh.hk 1 中国债券场策略周报 - 投资要点 中国债券市场表现回顾： 季初资金滞后转松，长端利率横盘震荡，随后对等关税落地，做多情绪催化债牛快速重启。长端方面， 10年国债活跃券（250004）下行至1.72%（-10bp）；30年国债活跃券（2400006）下行至 1.92%（-11bp）。 中国债券市场基本面、货币政策与资金面： 中国债券市场展望： 2 基本面和货币政策：本周为经济数据真空期，基本面对债市影响有限。货币政策方面，本周央行净回 笼5019亿元，其中逆回购投放6849亿元，到期11868亿元。 资金面：跨季后，资金面逐步转松，DR007、R007周均值分别下行7bp、18bp，隔夜利率也在跨季 之后逐步回落至1.6%水平。 基本面和货币政策来看，当前市场交易重心已经由基本面和货币/财政政策转向为关税。4月3日对等关 税方案落地后，即将到来的可能是国家间的协商期，关税冲击可能经历升级与缓和之间的摇摆。预期 的不稳定，或带来风险偏好 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - The total repurchase amount for the week was HKD 3.28 billion, a significant decrease from HKD 4.97 billion the previous week[10] - The number of companies engaging in repurchases increased to 67 from 45 in the prior week[10] - Tencent Holdings (0700.HK) led the repurchase with an amount of HKD 2.00 billion, followed by HSBC Holdings (0005.HK) at HKD 422.12 million[10] Group 2: Industry Insights - The information technology sector saw the highest repurchase activity, driven by Tencent's substantial buyback[13] - A total of 15 companies in the information technology sector initiated repurchases, the highest among all sectors[13] - The materials sector, represented by China Hongqiao (1378.HK), had a notable repurchase amount of HKD 394.02 million, accounting for 0.27% of its total share capital[14] Group 3: Repurchase Significance - Company buybacks are defined as the repurchase of shares from the secondary market using available cash, which can be canceled or used for employee stock incentives[23] - Large-scale buyback trends typically occur during bear markets, signaling that companies believe their stock prices are undervalued[23] - Historical data indicates that the Hong Kong market has experienced five waves of buyback trends since 2008, often followed by subsequent price increases[23]

1 港股市场策略周报 - 投资要点 l 港股市场表现回顾： 港股市场策略周报 2025.3.31-2025.4.6 | 分析师： | 沈凡超 | | --- | --- | | 中央编号： | BTT231 | | 联系电话： | 852-4623 5564 | | 邮箱： | hector@cnzsqh.hk | n 美国发布对全球"对等关税"，对中国综合税率超50%，市场继续回调。本周恒生综指/恒生指数/恒生科技分别 -2.19%/-2.46%/-3.51%。本周市场恒生一级行业板块互有涨跌，市场风格转向防守，高股息相关的电讯业和公 用事业周涨幅居前，排在第一和第二。 n 截至本周末，恒生综指的5年PE（TTM）估值分位点降至61%左右，估值在5年均值左右的水平。 l 港股市场宏观环境： n 基本面：3月官方PMI虽表现超预期，但改善幅度弱于季节性；贸易战大幅拖累外需预期，内需刺激将是重中之重。 n 资金面：美国宣布全球"对等关税"，中国强力反击对美所有产品加征34%关税，中美及全球贸易摩擦进一步升级。 l 港股市场展望： 2 n 基本面：国内经济整体表现尚可，但整体仍呈现弱复苏态势，经济上升动能偏弱；政 ...

Group 1: Top Net Buy/Sell Companies - The top net buy company is Pop Mart (9992.HK) with a net buy amount of 2.12 billion CNY, representing a holding change of 13,037,873 shares[10] - Alibaba (9988.HK) ranks second with a net buy amount of 1.965 billion CNY and a holding change of 15,911,290 shares[10] - The top net sell company is Xiaomi (1810.HK) with a net sell amount of -1.54 billion CNY, reflecting a holding change of -33,545,347 shares[11] Group 2: Industry Distribution of Net Buy/Sell - The report highlights the distribution of net buy/sell across various industries, indicating significant activity in the consumer discretionary sector[13] - The telecommunications sector, represented by China Mobile (0941.HK), shows a strong net buy of 1.901 billion CNY[10] - The healthcare sector has notable net buys from companies like BeiGene (6160.HK) and 3SBio (1530.HK), with net buy amounts of 1.019 billion CNY and 1.000 billion CNY respectively[10] Group 3: Active Stocks - Xiaomi (1810.HK) is the most active stock in the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect with a total trading volume of 10.046 billion CNY and a net buy of 0.322 billion CNY[20] - Alibaba (9988.HK) also shows high activity with a total trading volume of 6.287 billion CNY and a net buy of 1.921 billion CNY[20] - The report lists Tencent (0700.HK) as another active stock with a total trading volume of 5.472 billion CNY and a net buy of 0.926 billion CNY[20]

Group 1 - The report highlights the significant increase in the effective tariff rate imposed by the U.S., reaching the highest level since 1910, with a broad 10% minimum baseline tariff set to take effect on April 5 [4][10] - The tariffs on key trading partners vary significantly, with China facing a 34% tariff, Vietnam 46%, the EU 20%, Japan 24%, India 26%, and Thailand 36% [4][31] - The report indicates that the U.S. trade deficit is projected to reach $1.2 trillion in 2024, with China, the EU, and Mexico contributing 25%, 20%, and 14% respectively [4][31] Group 2 - China's response to U.S. tariffs has been characterized by a strong strategic stance, implementing countermeasures including a 34% tariff on all U.S. imports and export controls on certain U.S. companies [3][8] - The report anticipates further escalation of the trade conflict, particularly given the U.S. administration's firm stance and the lack of effective agreements with other countries [9][10] - The Federal Reserve's reluctance to lower interest rates in the face of high inflation and economic resilience is noted, with potential economic impacts from the tariffs expected to be more significant than previously anticipated [10][11] Group 3 - The report identifies "risk-off" sentiment in the market, with traditional safe-haven assets like U.S. Treasuries, the Japanese yen, and the VIX index experiencing strong gains, while risk assets have faced significant declines [12][15] - It suggests that the current market environment is similar to past periods of heightened uncertainty, with a focus on defensive investment strategies [12][14] - The report emphasizes the importance of high-dividend, domestic demand, and food security sectors as potential investment opportunities amid the ongoing trade tensions [15][20] Group 4 - The report outlines specific investment opportunities in Hong Kong stocks, particularly in high-dividend sectors, gold, semiconductor companies, and domestic consumption as a response to the trade conflict [20][22] - It highlights the potential for gold stocks to benefit from increased geopolitical risks and central bank purchases, as well as the opportunity for domestic semiconductor companies to gain from increased restrictions on imports [21][22] - The report also notes that agricultural stocks may benefit from the trade tensions, particularly those related to food security, as China imposes tariffs on U.S. agricultural products [22]

1 目录 2 l 港股市场重要指数估值 l 港股市场各行业估值水平 l AH股溢价/折价水平 港股市场估值周报 2025.3.31-2025.4.6 | 分析师： | 沈凡超 | | --- | --- | | 中央编号： | BTT231 | | 联系电话： | 852-4623 5564 | | 邮箱： | hector@cnzsqh.hk | 港股市场 重要指数估值 3 港股市场重要指数估值-恒生综合指数（HSCI） 资料来源：Wind 4 港股市场重要指数估值-恒生综合指数（HSCI） 资料来源：Wind 5 港股市场重要指数估值-恒生指数（HSI） 资料来源：Wind 6 港股市场重要指数估值-恒生指数（HSI） 资料来源：Wind 7 港股市场重要指数估值-恒生科技指数（HSTECH） 资料来源：Wind 8 港股市场重要指数估值-恒生科技指数（HSTECH） 资料来源：Wind 9 港股市场 各行业估值水平 10 港股市场各行业估值水平 l 从PE估值来看 l 港股市场各行业PB估值水平 n 我们选取了2018年初以来的港股市场各个主要 行业的PB (LF)为样本，来看当下各行业的估 值情况。 ...

[Table_main] 衍生品市场类模板 报告日期：2025 年 3 月 策_main] 衍生品市场类模板 略 报 告 2025 年 4 月美债市场月度展望及配置策略 ──债券策略月报 市 场 策 2025 年 3 月美国资本市场表现回顾 随着"特朗普"交易一阶基本结束，经济数据再次成为主导美债市场的主要因 素。3 月经济数据整体偏弱，薪资增速和 CPI 均较前值回落，同时受 1 月非货 币黄金进口大幅抬升影响，亚特兰大一季度 GDP 预测值一度被下修超过 4 个百 分点至-2.8%，即使是在剔除黄金进口影响后的读数也处于负值，同期领先指 标 Markit 制造业 PMI、消费者信心指数等均回落，使得市场对美国经济放缓 的担忧在逐渐升温，但由于非农、CPI 等硬数据尚未出现明显的走弱迹象，以 及 2 月通胀数据并未完全反应关税的影响，美债市场在月内并未走出单边的下 行行情，截止 3 月末，30 年期、20 年期、10 年期、2 年期美债收益率分别变 动+8.1、+7.4、-0.3、-10.6 个 bps。30Y-10Y 美债利差在月末收于 27.8bp（前 值 24.4bp），长短端利差均呈现"牛陡"特征， ...

Group 1 - The bond market sentiment improved this week, driven by the central bank's early release of MLF net injection signals and the potential for interest rate cuts, leading to a decline in 10Y/30Y government bond yields by 3.3/4.3 bps respectively [2][11] - The March PMI recorded at 50.5%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points from the previous value, indicating a recovery in both domestic and external demand [5][31] - The central bank's net injection this week was 303.6 billion yuan, with reverse repos contributing 1,265.3 billion yuan and MLF injections at 450 billion yuan [5][36] Group 2 - The bond market's performance showed a significant recovery, with the issuance of government bonds reaching 3,505 billion yuan and net issuance at 2,450 billion yuan this week [19] - The issuance of local government bonds amounted to 3,363 billion yuan, with a net issuance of 3,196 billion yuan, indicating strong demand for local financing [19] - The interbank market saw a rebound in transaction volume, with average daily trading rising from 6.04 trillion yuan to 6.36 trillion yuan, reflecting improved liquidity conditions [28] Group 3 - The report suggests that despite the potential for a loosening of monetary policy in April, the extent of this shift will depend on the central bank's stance [5][37] - The current market conditions indicate that adopting a defensive strategy and engaging in swing trading may be the best approach, particularly focusing on short-term bonds and high-yield products [5][37] - The economic data for January and February showed a positive start, with various sectors indicating growth above last year's GDP growth rate of 5.0% [37]

港股市场回购统计周报 2025.3.24-2025.3.30 | 分析师： | 沈凡超 | | --- | --- | | 中央编号： | BTT231 | | 联系电话： | 852-4623 5564 | | 邮箱： | hector@cnzsqh.hk | 目录 2 l 港股市场回购周统计数据 l 上市公司回购的意义与作用 港股市场回购周统计数据 3 1 港股市场回购周统计数据（2025.3.24-2025.3.30） l 周回购数据总汇 | 证券代码 | 证券简称 | 期间回购金额 | 期间回购数量 | 回购数量占 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | (万港元) | (万股) | 总股本比例 | | 0700.HK | 腾讯控股 | 250,309.13 | 492.20 | 0.05% | | 0005.HK | 汇丰控股 | 74,203.55 | 832.08 | 0.05% | | 1024.HK | 快手-W | 69,902.88 | 1,250.23 | 0.29% | | 1919.HK | 中远海控 | 24,666.53 | 1,989. ...

[Table_main] 衍生品市场类模板 报告导读 略 研 究 — 港 股 策 略 月 报 整体来看，港股市场基本面和资金面较上月基本保持平稳，政策面仍在加码， 但情绪面有所走弱。鉴于当下港股市场周月线级别趋势已逐步进入右侧区间， 对于后续走势，即使短期行情有波折，我们仍不建议过度悲观。因此，我们对 于中短期市场走势继续保持谨慎乐观的态度。板块配置方面，我们继续看好行 业相对景气且受益于政策利好的汽车、电子、家电、科技等；业绩和股价走势 稳健且受益于政策利好的低估值国央企红利板块；基本面相对独立且受益于降 息周期的香港本地银行、电信及公用事业红利股。 投资要点 2025 年 3 月港股市场表现回顾 回顾 3 月港股市场走势，市场冲高回落小幅收涨，基本符合我们的预期。3 月 上旬市场在资金和情绪的推动下继续震荡向上，恒指一度涨超 24800 点；之后 随着情绪的透支，市场开始持续走弱回调，最终港股市场在 3 月小幅收涨。最 终截至 3 月末，恒生综指/恒生指数/恒生科技指数月度涨跌幅分别为 +1.22%/+0.78%/-3.11%。 港股市场宏观环境解读 从各个角度简要总结当下市场环境。基本面：国内 1 月至 ...