港股市场策略周报 2025.2.17-2025.2.23 | 分析师： | 沈凡超 | | --- | --- | | 中央编号： | BTT231 | | 联系电话： | 852-4623 5564 | | 邮箱： | hector@cnzsqh.hk | 1 港股市场策略周报 - 投资要点 l 港股市场表现回顾： 2 n 本周市场情绪持续发酵，成交量进一步放大，市场继续强势上攻，市场焦点仍聚焦在科技板块。本周恒生综指/恒生 指数/恒生科技分别+4.06%/+3.79%/+6.03%。本周市场恒生一级行业板块互有涨跌，科技相关行业继续表现强 势。本周资讯科技业涨幅最大，周涨幅超10%；医疗保健行业在低估值和AI应用炒作的带动下涨幅近9%；电讯业 则受益于云计算和AI应用概念的助推，涨幅超6%。 n 截至本周末，恒生综指的5年PE（TTM）估值分位点上升至64.3%左右，估值已接近5年均值的水平。 l 港股市场宏观环境： n 基本面：当前处于经济数据真空期，政策端继续在各领域持续发力，民营经济座谈会助推当下科技行情进一步发酵。 n 资金面：美国通胀预期高企，经济数据明显走弱，滞胀风险预期明显升温；科技牛市继续 ...

[Table_main] 衍生品市场类模板 策_main] 衍生品市场类模板 略 报 告 黄金跨市场价差多维透视 ──短期窗口再度收窄，政策方向仍为关键 商 品 期 货 报告导读 — 专 题 报 告 由于标准差异、时间因素以及成本变化等各种因素共同影响下，不同市场 间黄金往往存在一定的价差。当前中美与欧美价差均出现波动扩大的现 象，特别是欧美价差，在美国加关税预期的影响下，一度大幅走低，但进 入 2 月下旬以来再度回到一到两个标准差之间的水平。在这一价差水平下 进行跨市场套利并不能确保足够的收益，所以当前跨市场套利的机会仍然 较小。未来可以继续关注美国关税预期，与汇率变化可能带来的操作机会。 投资要点 黄金市场介绍 全球各地的黄金交易市场为黄金提供了全天候的交 易服务。其中美洲、欧洲和亚洲的黄金交易市场成交 最为活跃，对全球黄金定价拥有极大的影响力。 黄金价差走势 全球黄金市场交易的黄金内在本质实际上并无明显 差别。理论上黄金在全球各大交易所价格应该保持一 致。但由于各种因素，会使得不同市场间金价往往存 在一定价差。 形成原因分析 从实际情况出发可以发现，中、美、欧三大黄金市场 金价经常出现不一致的波动，会出 ...

Geopolitical Factors - The U.S. has intensified sanctions against Iran and Russia, raising concerns about their oil exports, but current data shows no significant impact on their maritime exports[3] - Future U.S. sanctions on Iran may escalate to "extreme sanctions" which could further affect oil supply dynamics[3] Economic Indicators - Major economies like China and the Eurozone saw a rebound in January CPI, while U.S. manufacturing PMI remains above the threshold, indicating mixed economic signals[3] - Key indicators such as U.S. non-farm payrolls and unemployment rates need to be monitored for future economic trends[3] Supply and Demand Dynamics - OPEC+ has extended its production cut of 3.66 million barrels per day until the end of 2026, with voluntary cuts from 8 countries delayed until April 2025[3] - Non-OPEC+ countries, including the U.S., Canada, and Brazil, are expected to gradually increase production, potentially covering the global demand increase in 2025[3] Price Forecast - The Brent crude oil price is expected to fluctuate between $70 and $85 per barrel, reflecting a supply surplus in the medium to long term[4] - The overall market sentiment suggests a strategy of short-selling on price spikes due to geopolitical tensions[5] Risks and Considerations - Potential risks include unexpected macroeconomic improvements, escalation of geopolitical tensions, and lower-than-expected U.S. production increases[6]

Group 1 - The report indicates that the Chinese bond market experienced upward pressure on long-term interest rates, with the 10-year government bond rising by 3 basis points and the 30-year bond by 4 basis points, while the 1-year bond increased by 16 basis points, leading to an inversion in the yield curve between 3-year and 1-year bonds [2][9][12] - The January credit data showed a significant increase in new loans, with a total of 5.2 trillion yuan, which is 379.3 billion yuan more than the previous year, indicating a recovery in medium to long-term loans for enterprises, particularly in the construction and manufacturing sectors [5][37] - The report suggests that the current tightening of liquidity in the market is leading to a bear flattening of the yield curve, but there remains value in long-term bonds after overcoming the pressure from liquidity [5][47] Group 2 - The report highlights that the central bank's monetary policy is expected to remain accommodative, with indications of increased easing measures to support economic growth, particularly in light of weak demand [5][45][47] - The issuance of bonds in the primary market was robust, with government bonds totaling 3.536 billion yuan and local government bonds at 1.615 billion yuan, reflecting a strong supply side in the bond market [17][17] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring high-frequency data related to credit, consumption, and real estate to gauge the effectiveness of policy measures and the overall economic recovery [47][47]

Investment Rating - The report does not provide a specific investment rating for the industry [1]. Core Insights - The macroeconomic high-frequency data indicates a mixed performance across various sectors, with production rates showing divergence compared to the same period last year [11]. - Consumer spending has seen a significant boost during the Spring Festival, with box office revenues reaching new highs and passenger car sales remaining at elevated levels [17]. - The real estate market is experiencing a post-holiday recovery, with increased transaction volumes in both new and second-hand housing [21][22]. - Recent data shows a decline in domestic and international shipping rates, indicating a weakening trend in import and export activities [27]. - Price indices for agricultural products and pork continue to decline, reflecting ongoing deflationary pressures in these sectors [31]. Summary by Sections Production - The production sector shows varied performance, with the operating rates for different industries fluctuating significantly compared to last year [11]. Consumption - The film box office revenue for the week reached 646 million yuan, down from 710.5 million yuan, indicating a decrease of 64.5 million yuan [7]. - Daily average sales of passenger cars (retail) were reported at 75,966.2 units, down from 77,605.85 units, a decrease of 1,639.65 units [7]. Real Estate and Infrastructure - The transaction area for commercial housing in 30 major cities reached 115.41 million square meters, up 49.7% from the previous week [7]. - The transaction area for second-hand housing in major cities increased significantly, indicating a resurgence in market activity [21]. Import and Export - The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) decreased to 1,758.82, down 137.83 from the previous value [8]. - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) fell to 792, a decrease of 23 from the previous week [8]. Price Inflation - The wholesale price index for agricultural products dropped to 121.94, down 2.62 from the previous week [8]. - The average wholesale price of pork decreased to 21.78 yuan per kilogram, down 1.03 yuan [8]. Transportation - The subway passenger volume in Beijing increased to 784.63 million, up 200.28 million from the previous week [8]. - The number of domestic flights (excluding Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan) decreased to 14,019.71, down 581.14 from the previous week [8].

报告导读 研 究 — 期 货 研 究 报 告 2024 年 12 月以来金价表现亮眼，伦敦金现价格较 12 月 2600 美元/盎司的低 点升至 2869 美元/盎司，累计涨幅超过 10%。与此同时，纽约 COMEX 黄金期货 活跃合约价与伦敦金现价的价差持续走高，1 月期间两者的价差一度达到 60 美元/盎司，升水率一度超过 2%；黄金期现价格大幅走高的背后，一是源于特 朗普关税政策担忧，市场认为黄金进出口或将受到贸易战的波及；二是市场的 套利需求增加，2024 年 11 月以来，机构投资者便开始加大黄金现货的囤货力 度，央行的买盘力量对黄金期货溢价也有一定提振。短期来看，鉴于贸易战存 在进一步升级可能，黄金交易商囤货和央行买盘力量的双重支撑下，黄金期现 溢价仍将处于高位，这将使得外盘黄金的跨市场套利机会仍存，值得持续关注； 另外，鉴于当前黄金仍处在"正向市场"，主力合约和远期合约存在约 20 美 元/盎司的价差，因此还可以留意黄金期货主力连续合约在跨月时可能存在的 "向上跳空"行情。 | 投资要点 | | --- | 特朗普关税政策担忧和套利需求推动金价走高 2 月 1 日，特朗普政府签署行政令，对来自加 ...

[Table_main] 衍生品市场类模板 [Table _main] 衍生品市场类模板 报告日期：2024 年 11 月 *略报生 2024 年 11 月中债市场月度展望及配置策略 ──债券策略月报 场策 略研究 | --- | --- | --- | |-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|------------|-------------------| | | | | | 报告导读 | 分析师： | 曹潮 | | 三季度 GDP4.6%，平减指数连续 5 个季度为负，反应前三季度经济仍处于弱修 | 中央编号： | BVH841 | | 复状态，但 9 月经济数据环比出现改善，工业生产、固定资产投资和消费不同 | 联系电话： | 852-9658 1360 | | 程度回升。债市表现同样震荡，在经济数据影响下先下后上，10Y 累计下行幅 | ...

Production Sector - The coke oven operating rate increased to 73.86%, up by 0.77% from the previous week[4] - The blast furnace operating rate rose to 81.7%, an increase of 0.89%[4] - The operating rate for full steel tires surged to 60.72%, a significant rise of 11.02%[4] Consumption Sector - Weekly box office revenue dropped to CNY 51.5 million, a decrease of CNY 152.8 million compared to the previous week[4] - Average daily retail sales of passenger cars fell to 62,995.65 units, down by 814.1 units[4] - Average daily wholesale sales of passenger cars decreased to 73,195.55 units, a decline of 3,534.75 units[4] Real Estate and Infrastructure - The transaction area of commercial housing in 30 major cities reached 252.26 million square meters, an increase of 33.86% from the previous week[4] - The land transaction area in 100 major cities was 838.91 million square meters, down by 1,302.73 million square meters[4] - The land premium rate in 100 major cities increased to 7.85%, up by 4.22%[4] Trade and Inflation - The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) fell to 2,062.15, a decrease of 0.42%[5] - The China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) dropped to 1,405.22, down by 71.76[5] - The agricultural product wholesale price index decreased to 129.55, a decline of 3.23%[5]

Production Sector - The coke oven operating rate increased to 73.86%, up by 0.77% from the previous week[6] - The blast furnace operating rate rose to 81.7%, an increase of 0.89%[6] - The full tire steel operating rate surged to 60.72%, reflecting an 11.02% increase[6] Consumption Sector - Weekly box office revenue dropped significantly to CNY 51.5 million, a decrease of CNY 152.8 million compared to the previous week[6] - Average daily retail sales of passenger cars fell to 62,995.65 units, down by 814.1 units[6] - Average daily wholesale sales of passenger cars decreased to 73,195.55 units, a decline of 3,534.75 units[6] Real Estate and Infrastructure - The transaction area of commercial housing in 30 major cities reached 252.26 million square meters, an increase of 33.86% from the previous week[6] - The sales-to-inventory ratio for the top 10 cities decreased to 90.07%, down by 4.67%[6] - The land premium rate for the top 100 cities increased to 7.85%, up by 4.22%[6] Trade and Inflation - The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) slightly decreased to 2,062.15, down by 0.42%[7] - The China Containerized Freight Index (CCFI) fell to 1,405.22, a significant drop of 71.76[7] - The wholesale price index for agricultural products decreased to 129.55, down by 3.23%[7]

[Table_main] 衍生品市场类模板 冲突升级，给红海局势再次带来了一层迷雾。 巴以停火曲折反复，欧线运费或已见顶 ──集运欧线旺季维持强势，但运价已出现疲软迹象 器部 t st stare the see the see and the sent of the see and the seen and the seen and the seen and the seen and the sent of the see and the sent and the sent of the sering the s 操作 。 套利：等待做缩 EC2410-EC2412 价差入场机会。 http://www.cnzsqh.hk 1/13 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 [table_page] 商品期货策略研究 商 | --- | --- | --- | |----------------------------------------------------------------------------|---------------------------------------------|----- ...