港股市场策略周报 2025.4.7-2025.4.13 | 分析师： | 沈凡超 | | --- | --- | | 中央编号： | BTT231 | | 联系电话： | 852-4623 5564 | | 邮箱： | hector@cnzsqh.hk | 1 港股市场策略周报 - 投资要点 l 港股市场表现回顾： 2 n 既美国全球"对等关税"发布后，中国予以关税反击，中美贸易战升温，导致周一港股市场遭遇历史性暴跌。本周 恒生综指/恒生指数/恒生科技分别-8.66%/-8.47%/-7.77%。本周市场恒生一级行业板块全部收跌，随着外需预 期承压，市场资金转向内需为主的必选消费，本周仅跌1.1%，排在第一 n 截至本周末，恒生综指的5年PE（TTM）估值分位点快速降至44%左右，估值水平回落至5年均值以下。 l 港股市场宏观环境： n 基本面：3月国内金融数据超预期，但通胀数据不及预期；关税摩擦升温，政策端以内需为主多方面进一步加力。 n 资金面：贸易摩擦升温，美国经济预期走弱通胀预期升高；港股遭历史性暴跌，政策频出托底股市，南下资金大幅 流入。 l 港股市场展望： n 基本面：国内经济整体表现仍然呈现弱复 ...

e_main] 衍生品市场类模板 报告日期：2025 年 4 月 宏 观 报 告 美债利率或已企稳 宏 观 ──市场走势点评+宏观策略展望 报告导读 经 济 研 究 — 宏 观 策 略 报 告 过去一周以来，长端美债波动明显上升，以 10Y 美债利率为例，在周一亚盘开 始下行至 3.86%的年内低点后，自周一晚上开始一路上行，在周三亚盘期间一 度突破 4.5%，为 2 月以来新高水平。我们认为本轮美债利率大幅上行主要源 于对冲基金超过 5500 亿美元规模的基差交易（basis trade）发生逆转。这是 近期经济衰退预期升温、信用债利差小幅走阔、流动性边际收紧导致基差交易 收益率下滑和规模收敛的正常结果，并非像 2020 年 3 月期间，广义美元流动 性出了问题或者是美债面临广谱的抛售压力。我们认为在经济基本面依然具备 一定韧性、美联储利率调整门槛仍较高的基准情形下，10Y 美债收益率或在 4.5%筑顶后企稳，因此短期内逢低抄底或是最佳策略。 | 分析师： | 曹潮 | | --- | --- | | 中央编号： | BVH841 | | 联系电话： | 852-9658 1360 | | 邮箱： | ca ...

中债策略周报 2025.3.31-2025.4.6 分析师： 曹潮 中央编号： BVH841 联系电话： 852-96581360 邮箱： caochao@cnzsqh.hk 1 中国债券场策略周报 - 投资要点 中国债券市场表现回顾： 季初资金滞后转松，长端利率横盘震荡，随后对等关税落地，做多情绪催化债牛快速重启。长端方面， 10年国债活跃券（250004）下行至1.72%（-10bp）；30年国债活跃券（2400006）下行至 1.92%（-11bp）。 中国债券市场基本面、货币政策与资金面： 中国债券市场展望： 2 基本面和货币政策：本周为经济数据真空期，基本面对债市影响有限。货币政策方面，本周央行净回 笼5019亿元，其中逆回购投放6849亿元，到期11868亿元。 资金面：跨季后，资金面逐步转松，DR007、R007周均值分别下行7bp、18bp，隔夜利率也在跨季 之后逐步回落至1.6%水平。 基本面和货币政策来看，当前市场交易重心已经由基本面和货币/财政政策转向为关税。4月3日对等关 税方案落地后，即将到来的可能是国家间的协商期，关税冲击可能经历升级与缓和之间的摇摆。预期 的不稳定，或带来风险偏好 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - The total repurchase amount for the week was HKD 3.28 billion, a significant decrease from HKD 4.97 billion the previous week[10] - The number of companies engaging in repurchases increased to 67 from 45 in the prior week[10] - Tencent Holdings (0700.HK) led the repurchase with an amount of HKD 2.00 billion, followed by HSBC Holdings (0005.HK) at HKD 422.12 million[10] Group 2: Industry Insights - The information technology sector saw the highest repurchase activity, driven by Tencent's substantial buyback[13] - A total of 15 companies in the information technology sector initiated repurchases, the highest among all sectors[13] - The materials sector, represented by China Hongqiao (1378.HK), had a notable repurchase amount of HKD 394.02 million, accounting for 0.27% of its total share capital[14] Group 3: Repurchase Significance - Company buybacks are defined as the repurchase of shares from the secondary market using available cash, which can be canceled or used for employee stock incentives[23] - Large-scale buyback trends typically occur during bear markets, signaling that companies believe their stock prices are undervalued[23] - Historical data indicates that the Hong Kong market has experienced five waves of buyback trends since 2008, often followed by subsequent price increases[23]

1 港股市场策略周报 - 投资要点 l 港股市场表现回顾： 港股市场策略周报 2025.3.31-2025.4.6 | 分析师： | 沈凡超 | | --- | --- | | 中央编号： | BTT231 | | 联系电话： | 852-4623 5564 | | 邮箱： | hector@cnzsqh.hk | n 美国发布对全球"对等关税"，对中国综合税率超50%，市场继续回调。本周恒生综指/恒生指数/恒生科技分别 -2.19%/-2.46%/-3.51%。本周市场恒生一级行业板块互有涨跌，市场风格转向防守，高股息相关的电讯业和公 用事业周涨幅居前，排在第一和第二。 n 截至本周末，恒生综指的5年PE（TTM）估值分位点降至61%左右，估值在5年均值左右的水平。 l 港股市场宏观环境： n 基本面：3月官方PMI虽表现超预期，但改善幅度弱于季节性；贸易战大幅拖累外需预期，内需刺激将是重中之重。 n 资金面：美国宣布全球"对等关税"，中国强力反击对美所有产品加征34%关税，中美及全球贸易摩擦进一步升级。 l 港股市场展望： 2 n 基本面：国内经济整体表现尚可，但整体仍呈现弱复苏态势，经济上升动能偏弱；政 ...

Group 1: Top Net Buy/Sell Companies - The top net buy company is Pop Mart (9992.HK) with a net buy amount of 2.12 billion CNY, representing a holding change of 13,037,873 shares[10] - Alibaba (9988.HK) ranks second with a net buy amount of 1.965 billion CNY and a holding change of 15,911,290 shares[10] - The top net sell company is Xiaomi (1810.HK) with a net sell amount of -1.54 billion CNY, reflecting a holding change of -33,545,347 shares[11] Group 2: Industry Distribution of Net Buy/Sell - The report highlights the distribution of net buy/sell across various industries, indicating significant activity in the consumer discretionary sector[13] - The telecommunications sector, represented by China Mobile (0941.HK), shows a strong net buy of 1.901 billion CNY[10] - The healthcare sector has notable net buys from companies like BeiGene (6160.HK) and 3SBio (1530.HK), with net buy amounts of 1.019 billion CNY and 1.000 billion CNY respectively[10] Group 3: Active Stocks - Xiaomi (1810.HK) is the most active stock in the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect with a total trading volume of 10.046 billion CNY and a net buy of 0.322 billion CNY[20] - Alibaba (9988.HK) also shows high activity with a total trading volume of 6.287 billion CNY and a net buy of 1.921 billion CNY[20] - The report lists Tencent (0700.HK) as another active stock with a total trading volume of 5.472 billion CNY and a net buy of 0.926 billion CNY[20]

Group 1 - The report highlights the significant increase in the effective tariff rate imposed by the U.S., reaching the highest level since 1910, with a broad 10% minimum baseline tariff set to take effect on April 5 [4][10] - The tariffs on key trading partners vary significantly, with China facing a 34% tariff, Vietnam 46%, the EU 20%, Japan 24%, India 26%, and Thailand 36% [4][31] - The report indicates that the U.S. trade deficit is projected to reach $1.2 trillion in 2024, with China, the EU, and Mexico contributing 25%, 20%, and 14% respectively [4][31] Group 2 - China's response to U.S. tariffs has been characterized by a strong strategic stance, implementing countermeasures including a 34% tariff on all U.S. imports and export controls on certain U.S. companies [3][8] - The report anticipates further escalation of the trade conflict, particularly given the U.S. administration's firm stance and the lack of effective agreements with other countries [9][10] - The Federal Reserve's reluctance to lower interest rates in the face of high inflation and economic resilience is noted, with potential economic impacts from the tariffs expected to be more significant than previously anticipated [10][11] Group 3 - The report identifies "risk-off" sentiment in the market, with traditional safe-haven assets like U.S. Treasuries, the Japanese yen, and the VIX index experiencing strong gains, while risk assets have faced significant declines [12][15] - It suggests that the current market environment is similar to past periods of heightened uncertainty, with a focus on defensive investment strategies [12][14] - The report emphasizes the importance of high-dividend, domestic demand, and food security sectors as potential investment opportunities amid the ongoing trade tensions [15][20] Group 4 - The report outlines specific investment opportunities in Hong Kong stocks, particularly in high-dividend sectors, gold, semiconductor companies, and domestic consumption as a response to the trade conflict [20][22] - It highlights the potential for gold stocks to benefit from increased geopolitical risks and central bank purchases, as well as the opportunity for domestic semiconductor companies to gain from increased restrictions on imports [21][22] - The report also notes that agricultural stocks may benefit from the trade tensions, particularly those related to food security, as China imposes tariffs on U.S. agricultural products [22]

1 目录 2 l 港股市场重要指数估值 l 港股市场各行业估值水平 l AH股溢价/折价水平 港股市场估值周报 2025.3.31-2025.4.6 | 分析师： | 沈凡超 | | --- | --- | | 中央编号： | BTT231 | | 联系电话： | 852-4623 5564 | | 邮箱： | hector@cnzsqh.hk | 港股市场 重要指数估值 3 港股市场重要指数估值-恒生综合指数（HSCI） 资料来源：Wind 4 港股市场重要指数估值-恒生综合指数（HSCI） 资料来源：Wind 5 港股市场重要指数估值-恒生指数（HSI） 资料来源：Wind 6 港股市场重要指数估值-恒生指数（HSI） 资料来源：Wind 7 港股市场重要指数估值-恒生科技指数（HSTECH） 资料来源：Wind 8 港股市场重要指数估值-恒生科技指数（HSTECH） 资料来源：Wind 9 港股市场 各行业估值水平 10 港股市场各行业估值水平 l 从PE估值来看 l 港股市场各行业PB估值水平 n 我们选取了2018年初以来的港股市场各个主要 行业的PB (LF)为样本，来看当下各行业的估 值情况。 ...

[Table_main] 衍生品市场类模板 报告日期：2025 年 3 月 策_main] 衍生品市场类模板 略 报 告 2025 年 4 月美债市场月度展望及配置策略 ──债券策略月报 市 场 策 2025 年 3 月美国资本市场表现回顾 随着"特朗普"交易一阶基本结束，经济数据再次成为主导美债市场的主要因 素。3 月经济数据整体偏弱，薪资增速和 CPI 均较前值回落，同时受 1 月非货 币黄金进口大幅抬升影响，亚特兰大一季度 GDP 预测值一度被下修超过 4 个百 分点至-2.8%，即使是在剔除黄金进口影响后的读数也处于负值，同期领先指 标 Markit 制造业 PMI、消费者信心指数等均回落，使得市场对美国经济放缓 的担忧在逐渐升温，但由于非农、CPI 等硬数据尚未出现明显的走弱迹象，以 及 2 月通胀数据并未完全反应关税的影响，美债市场在月内并未走出单边的下 行行情，截止 3 月末，30 年期、20 年期、10 年期、2 年期美债收益率分别变 动+8.1、+7.4、-0.3、-10.6 个 bps。30Y-10Y 美债利差在月末收于 27.8bp（前 值 24.4bp），长短端利差均呈现"牛陡"特征， ...

Group 1 - The bond market sentiment improved this week, driven by the central bank's early release of MLF net injection signals and the potential for interest rate cuts, leading to a decline in 10Y/30Y government bond yields by 3.3/4.3 bps respectively [2][11] - The March PMI recorded at 50.5%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points from the previous value, indicating a recovery in both domestic and external demand [5][31] - The central bank's net injection this week was 303.6 billion yuan, with reverse repos contributing 1,265.3 billion yuan and MLF injections at 450 billion yuan [5][36] Group 2 - The bond market's performance showed a significant recovery, with the issuance of government bonds reaching 3,505 billion yuan and net issuance at 2,450 billion yuan this week [19] - The issuance of local government bonds amounted to 3,363 billion yuan, with a net issuance of 3,196 billion yuan, indicating strong demand for local financing [19] - The interbank market saw a rebound in transaction volume, with average daily trading rising from 6.04 trillion yuan to 6.36 trillion yuan, reflecting improved liquidity conditions [28] Group 3 - The report suggests that despite the potential for a loosening of monetary policy in April, the extent of this shift will depend on the central bank's stance [5][37] - The current market conditions indicate that adopting a defensive strategy and engaging in swing trading may be the best approach, particularly focusing on short-term bonds and high-yield products [5][37] - The economic data for January and February showed a positive start, with various sectors indicating growth above last year's GDP growth rate of 5.0% [37]