Group 1 - The core view of the report indicates that the U.S. Treasury market is experiencing a "V" shaped rebound in long-term yields, with the 10-year Treasury yield rising by 7.9 basis points during the week, driven by better-than-expected non-farm payroll data and a reassessment of the U.S. economic outlook and Federal Reserve's interest rate path [2][11][70] - The U.S. GDP annualized value for Q1 has turned negative at -0.3%, marking the first decline since March 2022, primarily due to a combined drag from net exports and government spending of -5.1%, reflecting the downward pressure from tariffs on the economy [5][68] - The liquidity and supply-demand dynamics in the Treasury market show a significant drop in reserves by over $200 billion to $3 trillion, while the SOFR rate has increased by 8 basis points, indicating that the funding market has not been significantly impacted by the Treasury sell-off [5][35] Group 2 - The supply side of the Treasury market remains stable, with the Treasury Department maintaining a dovish stance in its refinancing plans, projecting a net financing scale of $514 billion for Q2 and $554 billion for Q3, while the issuance of T-Bills continues at a high level [19][23] - Demand for U.S. Treasuries is characterized by a decline in short positions, although they remain elevated, with the total short position in 2-year Treasury futures at approximately $429.5 billion, reflecting ongoing basis trading and roll-over trading [24][27] - The yield on Treasury carry trades has been rising, indicating renewed interest from overseas institutions, with the actual returns on 10-year Treasuries remaining attractive after accounting for currency hedging costs [28][70] Group 3 - The macroeconomic environment shows that April's non-farm payrolls added 177,000 jobs, significantly exceeding expectations, with the private sector contributing 167,000 jobs, while the unemployment rate has slightly increased to 4.19% [48][55] - The ISM manufacturing PMI for April recorded a decline to 48.7%, indicating contraction, while the ISM non-manufacturing PMI rose to 51.6%, suggesting a mixed outlook for the service sector [62][67] - The report anticipates that the Federal Reserve may begin to cut interest rates as early as June if economic pressures from tariffs and trade disputes continue to escalate, with a potential end to balance sheet reduction expected by the end of the year [69][70]

[Table_main] 衍生品市场类模板 报告日期：2025 年 5 月 策_main] 衍生品市场类模板 略 报 告 2025 年 5 月中债市场月度展望及配置策略 ──债券策略月报 市 场 策 报告导读 略 研 究 — 中 债 策 略 月 报 一季度经济实现开门红，实际 GDP 同比 5.4%，名义 GDP 同比 4.6%，反应 9.24 新政以来经济复苏的积极因素在不断累积；政治局会议强调加紧实施已落地的 政策，财政发债节奏加快，货币政策加力，市场对宽松预期明显升温。上证综 指和深证成指在月末分别收于 3279、9899.8，月内涨跌幅分别为-1.7%、-5.76%。 债市则受避险情绪影响，4 月初迎来一波快牛，10 年国债收益率两个交易日内 下行 18bp，但随着后续多空力量进入相对平衡状态，利率难上但也难下，10 年国债收益率在 1.62-1.67%区间震荡。展望后续，基本面对债市的影响逐渐 弱化+中美关税谈判难以短期达成和解的背景下，5 月偏宽松的资金面可能会 给短端品种带来更好的投资机会，同时可以在组合中保留一定的久期仓位，以 抓捕降准/降息落地后带来的一波快牛机会。 | 分析师： | 曹潮 ...

Group 1 - The report maintains a cautiously optimistic outlook for the Hong Kong stock market in the short to medium term, despite short-term concerns regarding fundamentals and liquidity [3][6] - The report highlights a preference for sectors that are relatively prosperous and benefit from policy support, including automotive, consumer, electronics, and technology [3][6] - The report emphasizes the importance of avoiding sectors and companies with significant exposure to the U.S. due to potential impacts from U.S.-China trade disputes [3][6] Group 2 - In April, the Hong Kong stock market experienced significant volatility, with the Hang Seng Index dropping over 13% on April 7, marking the largest single-day decline since the 1997 Asian financial crisis [4][12] - The Hang Seng Composite Index, Hang Seng Index, and Hang Seng Technology Index recorded monthly declines of -3.70%, -4.33%, and -5.70% respectively by the end of April [4][12] - The report notes that the market's performance was weaker than expected, influenced by the escalation of U.S.-China trade tensions [12][13] Group 3 - The report indicates that the macroeconomic environment for the Hong Kong market is under pressure, with domestic economic data showing improvement but external demand being significantly impacted by trade tensions [5][41] - The report highlights that the domestic economy's performance is closely tied to mainland China's economic conditions, with over 80% of profits in the Hong Kong market coming from Chinese companies [41][42] - The report discusses the need for policy measures to boost domestic demand as external pressures increase, emphasizing the importance of stabilizing the economy [78][80] Group 4 - The report identifies that sectors such as utilities and consumer staples performed relatively well in April, while sectors with high exposure to U.S. exports, such as textiles and machinery, faced significant declines [13][12] - The report notes that the valuation levels of the Hang Seng Index are currently below the five-year average, with a PE ratio of 10.5 as of the end of April [21][22] - The report highlights a significant inflow of southbound funds into the Hong Kong market, with Alibaba and Tencent being major beneficiaries of this trend [21][29]

Group 1: Market Overview - The total repurchase amount for the week was HKD 1.53 billion, down from HKD 1.99 billion the previous week[10] - The number of companies engaging in repurchases decreased to 62 from 78 in the previous week[10] - AIA Group (1299.HK) led the repurchase with an amount of HKD 913.65 million[10] Group 2: Industry Insights - The financial sector dominated repurchase amounts, primarily driven by AIA Group and HSBC Holdings[13] - The technology sector had the highest number of companies engaging in repurchases, totaling 12[13] - The industrial sector followed with 11 companies participating in repurchases[13] Group 3: Company-Specific Data - AIA Group (1299.HK) accounted for 0.15% of its total share capital with a repurchase of 1,648.10 million shares[9] - HSBC Holdings (0005.HK) repurchased 179.52 million shares, representing 0.01% of its total share capital[9] - China Hongqiao (1378.HK) repurchased 1,095.60 million shares, which is 0.12% of its total share capital[9] Group 4: Market Trends - Large-scale repurchase trends often occur during bear markets, indicating companies believe their stock prices are undervalued[23] - Historical data shows that repurchase waves in the Hong Kong market since 2008 have been followed by subsequent price increases[23]

Market Performance Review - The Hong Kong stock market continued to rebound this week, driven by a potential easing of US tariffs on China, with the Hang Seng Index, Hang Seng Composite Index, and Hang Seng Tech Index rising by 3.15%, 2.74%, and 1.96% respectively [4][14] - All major industry sectors, except telecommunications, saw gains this week, with healthcare and information technology sectors leading with weekly increases of approximately 8% and 6% [4][14] - As of the end of this week, the 5-year PE (TTM) valuation percentile for the Hang Seng Index rose to around 55%, still below the 5-year average [4] Market Valuation Level - The valuation level of the Hong Kong stock market remains below the 5-year average, indicating potential for future growth [4] Buyback Statistics - The total buyback amount for the week was 1.53 billion HKD, a decrease from 1.99 billion HKD the previous week, with 62 companies participating in buybacks, down from 78 [24][25] - AIA Group (1299.HK) led the buybacks with 913.64 million HKD, followed by HSBC Holdings (0005.HK) with 150.25 million HKD [24][25] - The financial sector saw the highest concentration of buyback amounts, driven by significant buybacks from AIA and HSBC [28] Southbound Fund Flow - The top net buying companies this week included Alibaba (9988.HK) with a net inflow of 4.197 billion HKD and Tencent Holdings (0700.HK) with 2.227 billion HKD [32] - Conversely, the top net selling companies included Xiaomi Group (1810.HK) with a net outflow of 4.540 billion HKD and China Mobile (0941.HK) with 1.875 billion HKD [33] Macroeconomic Environment Tracking - The political bureau meeting emphasized the urgency of expanding domestic demand amidst a severe external environment, indicating a focus on stabilizing economic growth [44][46] - The meeting also highlighted the need for proactive macroeconomic policies to counter external shocks and support domestic economic stability [46] - Recent data showed a 0.8% increase in profits for industrial enterprises in the first quarter, reflecting some improvement due to policy support, although external demand pressures remain [37][39] Sector Allocation Outlook - The report continues to favor sectors with relative economic resilience, such as automotive, technology, and internet industries, as well as low-valuation state-owned enterprises benefiting from policy support [46]

港股通数据统计周报 2025.4.21-2025.4.27 | 分析师： | 沈凡超 | | --- | --- | | 中央编号： | BTT231 | | 联系电话： | 852-4623 5564 | | 邮箱： | hector@cnzsqh.hk | 1 目录 2 l 港股通前十大净买入/卖出公司 l 港股通净买入/卖出行业分布 l 港股通前十大活跃个股 l 港股通与南下资金介绍 3 港股通本周前十大净买入公司（2025.4.21-2025.4.27） | 序号 | 证券代码 | 证券简称 | 行业 | 港股通持股变动数 | 净买入金额（亿元） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | 9988.HK | 阿里巴巴-W | 可选消费 | 36308762 | 41.97 | | 2 | 0700.HK | 腾讯控股 | 信息技术 | 4657084 | 22.27 | | 3 | 3690.HK | 美团-W | 可选消费 | 11177084 | 14.26 | | 4 | 2367.HK | 巨子生物 | 日常消费 | 15718400 | 12 ...

Production Sector - The coke oven operating rate increased to 75.29%, up by 1.86% from the previous week[7] - The high furnace operating rate rose to 84.35%, reflecting a 0.77% increase[7] - The full tire steel operating rate decreased to 62.46%, down by 2.97% from the previous week[7] Consumption Sector - Weekly box office revenue decreased to 216 million CNY, down by 2,000,000 CNY from the previous week[7] - Average daily retail sales of passenger cars fell to 61,788.25 units, a decrease of 4,001 units[7] - Average daily wholesale sales of passenger cars dropped to 73,632.75 units, down by 5,425.55 units[7] Real Estate and Infrastructure - The transaction area of commercial housing in 30 major cities increased to 167.19 million square meters, up by 18.21% from the previous week[7] - The land premium rate in 100 major cities rose to 7.5%, an increase of 3.27%[7] - Excavator sales reached 19,517 units, a significant increase of 7,877 units compared to the previous month[7] Trade and Inflation - The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) decreased to 1,347.84, down by 22.74 points[8] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for agricultural products showed a slight decline, with the wholesale price index at 118.13, down by 0.69%[8] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) indicated a rebound in domestic and international commodity prices[8] Transportation - The subway passenger volume in Beijing decreased to 1,057.37 million trips, down by 5.02%[8] - The number of domestic flights (excluding Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan) decreased to 12,847.57 flights, down by 92.29 flights[8] - The China Road Logistics Price Index increased slightly to 1,050.75, up by 0.61[8]

Group 1: Market Performance Review - The Hong Kong stock market stabilized and rebounded this week after a previous panic, with the Hang Seng Index, Hang Seng Composite Index, and Hang Seng Tech Index increasing by +2.21%, +2.30%, and -0.27% respectively [13] - All major industry sectors, except for industrials, saw gains this week, with a defensive dividend style prevailing, particularly in the financial and conglomerate sectors, both of which had weekly gains exceeding 4% [13] - The 5-year PE (TTM) valuation percentile of the Hang Seng Composite Index slightly rose to around 50%, still below the 5-year average [13] Group 2: Macroeconomic Environment - The macroeconomic environment shows that March economic data and Q1 GDP performance exceeded expectations, but external demand is expected to impact Q2, with a focus on whether policy measures can be strengthened [43][45] - The overall profitability of the Hong Kong stock market is highly synchronized with the Chinese economy, as over 80% of profits come from Chinese companies, necessitating close attention to changes in the Chinese economic outlook [36] Group 3: Sector Allocation Outlook - The report continues to favor sectors with relative prosperity such as automotive, technology, and internet, as well as low-valuation state-owned enterprises benefiting from policy support [45] - Local Hong Kong banks and utility stocks, which are relatively independent in their fundamentals and benefit from a rate-cutting cycle, are also highlighted as favorable [45] Group 4: Buyback Statistics - The total buyback amount this week was HKD 1.99 billion, a significant decrease from HKD 5.59 billion the previous week, with 78 companies participating in buybacks, down from 100 [24] - AIA Group (1299.HK) led the buybacks with an amount of HKD 939.31 million, followed by HSBC Holdings (0005.HK) with HKD 289.29 million [24][27] Group 5: Southbound Capital Flow - The top net buy companies this week included Alibaba (9988.HK) with a net buy amount of HKD 4.838 billion, Tencent Holdings (0700.HK) with HKD 2.914 billion, and Xiaomi Group (1810.HK) with HKD 2.360 billion [31] - Conversely, the top net sell companies included the Tracker Fund of Hong Kong (2800.HK) with a net sell amount of HKD -14.672 billion and Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (2828.HK) with HKD -7.231 billion [32]

Production Sector - The coke oven operating rate increased to 73.01%, up 0.39% from the previous week[7] - The high furnace operating rate rose to 83.3%, a slight increase of 0.15%[7] - The PTA operating rate decreased to 77.57%, down 2.91% from the previous week[7] Consumption Sector - Weekly box office revenue reached 46,200,000 CNY, a significant increase of 125.1% compared to the previous week[7] - Daily average retail sales of passenger cars decreased to 67,404.15 units, down 3.0% from the previous week[7] - Daily average wholesale sales of passenger cars fell to 81,192.05 units, a decline of 3.1%[7] Real Estate and Infrastructure - The transaction area of commercial housing in 30 major cities dropped to 146.05 million square meters, down 12.65% from the previous week[7] - The land premium rate in 100 major cities decreased to 4.24%, down 8.34% from the previous week[7] - Excavator sales increased to 19,517 units, a rise of 67.7% compared to the previous month[7] Trade and Inflation - The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) rose to 1,394.68, an increase of 0.14%[8] - The average wholesale price of pork was 20.79 CNY/kg, down 0.19% from the previous week[8] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for agricultural products showed a decline, indicating weak price performance[8] Transportation - The Beijing subway passenger volume decreased to 878.62 million trips, down 12.5% from the previous week[8] - The number of domestic flights increased to 12,526.57, up 0.45% from the previous week[8] - The China Road Logistics Price Index remained stable at 1,048.96, a slight increase of 0.36%[8]

Group 1: Top Net Buy/Sell Companies - Tencent Holdings (0700.HK) had a net buy amount of ¥98.25 billion, with a holding change of 22,157,478 shares[9] - Alibaba Group (9988.HK) saw a net buy of ¥86.80 billion, with 84,272,955 shares changing hands[9] - HSBC Holdings (0005.HK) was the top net sell company, with a net sell amount of -¥13.27 billion, reflecting a holding change of -17,574,508 shares[10] Group 2: Industry Distribution of Net Buy/Sell - The technology sector led net buys, with significant contributions from Tencent and Xiaomi, indicating strong investor interest in tech stocks[12] - Financial services also saw notable activity, with both net buys and sells, highlighting a mixed sentiment in the financial sector[12] - The consumer discretionary sector, represented by Alibaba and Meituan, showed robust net buy activity, suggesting positive market sentiment towards consumer stocks[12] Group 3: Active Stocks - Xiaomi Group (1810.HK) was the most active stock with a total trading volume of ¥74.18 billion and a net buy of ¥0.51 billion on the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect[19] - Tencent Holdings (0700.HK) also featured prominently with a trading volume of ¥71.10 billion and a net buy of ¥12.25 billion[19] - Alibaba Group (9988.HK) had a trading volume of ¥54.94 billion, with a significant net buy of ¥23.21 billion, indicating strong investor confidence[19]