港股通数据统计周报 2025.3.24-2025.3.30 | 分析师： | 沈凡超 | | --- | --- | | 中央编号： | BTT231 | | 联系电话： | 852-4623 5564 | | 邮箱： | hector@cnzsqh.hk | 1 目录 2 3 港股通本周前十大净买入公司（2025.3.24-2025.3.30） | 序号 | 证券代码 | 证券简称 | 行业 | 港股通持股变动数 | 净买入金额（亿元） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | 1810.HK | 小米集团-W | 信息技术 | 113053959 | 57.71 | | 2 | 3968.HK | 招商银行 | 金融 | 55503648 | 25.34 | | 3 | 3690.HK | 美团-W | 可选消费 | 12596397 | 20.17 | | 4 | 2423.HK | 贝壳-W | 房地产 | 32203976 | 17.47 | | 5 | 2899.HK | 紫金矿业 | 材料 | 90634368 | 16.35 | | 6 | 2 ...

Group 1 - The report indicates that the economic targets and policies set during the "Two Sessions" are largely in line with expectations, with positive economic data from January to February suggesting a recovery trend in the fundamentals [3][4][5] - The bond market experienced a "bear flattening" trend in March, with the 10Y and 30Y government bond yields rising by over 8 basis points, reflecting a tightening liquidity environment [3][4][11] - The report suggests a defensive strategy in the current market, focusing on short-term deposits and short-term interest rate bonds, while recommending longer-duration products with higher yield spreads to mitigate market volatility [3][6][12] Group 2 - The macroeconomic environment analysis highlights that major economic indicators showed robust growth in January and February, with industrial output and consumption exceeding last year's GDP growth rate of 5.0% [5][35][37] - The report notes that the manufacturing PMI for March was recorded at 50.5%, indicating a slight recovery in manufacturing activity, with both supply and demand expanding [5][71] - The bond issuance situation in March showed a net issuance of 13,086 billion yuan in government bonds, with local government bonds also seeing significant issuance, indicating manageable pressure on the bond market [17][18] Group 3 - The report emphasizes that the liquidity environment has become a primary driver of the bond market, with expectations of a more relaxed liquidity situation in April due to seasonal factors and easing government debt supply pressure [6][25][26] - The analysis of the funding situation indicates that the average rates for R001 and R007 decreased in March, suggesting a potential easing of liquidity conditions moving forward [25][26][34] - The report anticipates that the government bond net issuance in April will be at a seasonal low, which is expected to have minimal impact on the liquidity environment [17][18]

港股市场策略周报 n 截至本周末，恒生综指的5年PE（TTM）估值分位点保持在64%左右，估值在5年均值左右的水平。 l 港股市场宏观环境： 2025.3.24-2025.3.30 | 分析师： | 沈凡超 | | --- | --- | | 中央编号： | BTT231 | | 联系电话： | 852-4623 5564 | | 邮箱： | hector@cnzsqh.hk | 1 港股市场策略周报 - 投资要点 l 港股市场表现回顾： n 本周港股市场继续调整，恒生综指/恒生指数/恒生科技分别-0.82%/-1.11%/-2.36%。本周市场恒生一级行业板 块多数下跌，仅医疗保健、原材料和综合企业收涨，周涨幅排在前三，且涨幅都在2%以上。本周资讯科技业继续大 幅回调，本周跌幅排第一，周跌幅超2%；工业行业同样跌幅较大，周跌幅在2%左右。 l 港股市场展望： 2 目录 3 l 港股市场表现回顾 l 港股市场估值水平 l 港股市场回购统计 l 南向资金走向统计 l 港股市场宏观环境跟踪与展望 港股市场表现回顾 n 基本面：1-2月工业企业利润表现较弱，经济内生复苏动能弱，叠加关税战外需承压，预计后续企业盈利或 ...

港股市场策略周报 2025.3.10-2025.3.16 | 分析师： | 沈凡超 | | --- | --- | | 中央编号： | BTT231 | | 联系电话： | 852-4623 5564 | | 邮箱： | hector@cnzsqh.hk | 1 港股市场策略周报 - 投资要点 l 港股市场表现回顾： n 本周市场有所调整，仅在最后一个交易日反弹，恒生综指/恒生指数/恒生科技分别-0.75%/-1.12%/-2.59%。本 周原材料表现继续强势，周涨幅超4%，排在第一；必选消费和能源业涨幅排在第二和第三，周涨幅都超2%。 n 截至本周末，恒生综指的5年PE（TTM）估值分位点持平在69%左右，估值接近5年均值的水平。 l 港股市场宏观环境： l 港股市场展望： 2 n 基本面：2月中国金融数据整体表现不及预期，往后看债务置换仍将继续，预计仍将对国内信贷数据存在压制。 n 资金面：2月美国CPI整体不及市场预期，但关税影响或仍未完全显现，后续通胀或继续成为压制降息预期的隐忧。 目录 3 l 港股市场表现回顾 l 港股市场估值水平 l 港股市场回购统计 l 南向资金走向统计 l 港股市场宏观环境跟 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry [1]. Core Insights - The production sector shows an overall improvement compared to the same period last year, with various operational rates indicating a positive trend [11]. - The consumption sector is experiencing a seasonal decline in box office revenues post-Spring Festival, while passenger car sales remain at a high level [17]. - The real estate and infrastructure sector is witnessing a high level of second-hand housing sales, indicating strong market activity [20]. - Recent data shows a significant recovery in infrastructure-related high-frequency data following the resumption of work after the holiday [22]. - The import and export sector indicates a divergence between domestic and international freight rates [26]. - Consumer Price Index (CPI) shows a weakening trend in agricultural and pork prices, while Producer Price Index (PPI) reflects a rebound in domestic and international commodity prices [30][32]. - The transportation sector is experiencing a seasonal increase in subway ridership in major cities post-holiday, while flight operations show a seasonal decline [36][38]. Summary by Sections Production - The operational rates for various sectors, including steel and tire production, are showing positive trends compared to previous periods [11][13]. Consumption - The box office revenue has decreased significantly, with a drop of 33.5 million yuan, while passenger car sales remain robust [17]. Real Estate and Infrastructure - The transaction area for new homes in 30 major cities increased to 167.74 million square meters, up from 149.91 million square meters, reflecting a 17.83% increase [20]. - The land premium rate in 100 major cities rose to 22.59%, up from 8.75%, indicating increased competition for land [22]. Import and Export - The Shanghai export container freight index decreased to 1,319.34, down from 1,436.30, while the Baltic Dry Index increased to 1,669.00, up from 1,400.00 [26]. Price Inflation - The average wholesale price of pork is 20.79 yuan per kilogram, slightly down from 20.81 yuan, while the agricultural product wholesale price index shows minimal change [30]. Transportation - Subway ridership in Beijing decreased to 755.48 million trips, while Guangzhou saw an increase to 941.91 million trips, indicating varied recovery rates across cities [36][38].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry [1]. Core Insights - The report analyzes the valuation levels of the Hong Kong stock market, focusing on key indices and industry valuations [4][18]. - It highlights that certain industries are undervalued based on PE and PB ratios, indicating potential investment opportunities [20][24]. Summary by Sections Hong Kong Market Important Index Valuation - The report provides insights into the valuation of major indices such as the Hang Seng Composite Index (HSCI) and the Hang Seng Index (HSI) [6][10]. - It includes data from Wind, indicating the performance and valuation trends of these indices [7][11]. Hong Kong Market Industry Valuation Levels - The report categorizes industries based on their PE (TTM) and PB (LF) valuation levels since early 2018 [21][24]. - Industries with PE valuation below the 20th percentile include daily consumer goods and utilities, suggesting they are undervalued [21]. - Industries with PE valuation below the 40th percentile include energy, consumer discretionary, daily consumer goods, healthcare, and utilities [21]. - Industries with relatively high PE valuations (above 50th percentile) include materials, industrials, information technology, and telecommunications [21]. - For PB valuations, healthcare and utilities are also noted as undervalued, with PB below the 20th percentile [24]. - Other industries with PB below the 40th percentile include daily consumer goods, healthcare, utilities, and real estate [24]. - High PB valuation industries (above 50th percentile) include energy, consumer discretionary, and telecommunications [24]. AH Share Premium/Discount Levels - The report discusses the premium/discount levels of AH shares, providing insights into market dynamics [26][28].

美债策略周报 2025.3.10-2025.3.16 分析师： 曹潮 中央编号： BVH841 联系电话： 852-96581360 邮箱： caochao@cnzsqh.hk 1 3 2 2月CPI和PPI数据均超预期回落，但市场对关税担忧仍存，导致长端美债利率居高不下，10Y美债周内 累计上行1.1个bps。 美债市场基本面、货币政策和资金面： 基本面与货币政策：2月CPI同比回落至2.8%，低于预期2.9%和前值3%，说明1月的偏高读数主要源于 季节性残留，进而导致部分商品和服务价格上涨幅度被高估；但2月通胀数据并没有反应特朗普关税落地 后的影响，市场对此担忧仍存；货币政策方面，由于下周召开FOMC会议，美联储官员处于"静默期"。 流动性和供需：准备金回升至3.4万亿美元，财政部一般账户延续回落态势。鉴于债务上限解决的时点前 后，商业银行准备金规模或将面临较大波动，进而对美债市场流动性带来潜在不利影响，为防止类似 2019年的流动性危机重演，美联储可能最早会在5月结束缩表，并在3月会议中释放结束缩表信号。 美债市场展望及策略：经济"类滞胀"+财政部影子"QE"重现，长端美债迎来重要做多窗口期 2月CPI ...

l 港股市场回购周统计数据 l 上市公司回购的意义与作用 港股市场回购周统计数据 3 港股市场回购统计周报 2025.3.10-2025.3.16 | 分析师： | 沈凡超 | | --- | --- | | 中央编号： | BTT231 | | 联系电话： | 852-4623 5564 | | 邮箱： | hector@cnzsqh.hk | 1 目录 2 港股市场回购周统计数据（2025.3.10-2025.3.16） l 周回购数据总汇 | 证券代码 | 证券简称 | 期间回购金额 | 期间回购数量 | 回购数量占 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | (万港元) | (万股) | 总股本比例 | | 3323.HK | 中国建材 | 339,224.97 | 84,174.93 | 11.09% | | 0005.HK | 汇丰控股 | 102,101.96 | 1,186.80 | 0.07% | | 0019.HK | 太古股份公司A | 7,707.88 | 111.50 | 0.08% | | 1972.HK | 太古地产 | 4,326.10 | ...

目录 2 l 港股市场重要指数估值 l 港股市场各行业估值水平 l AH股溢价/折价水平 港股市场估值周报 2025.2.10-2025.2.16 | 分析师： | 沈凡超 | | --- | --- | | 中央编号： | BTT231 | | 联系电话： | 852-4623 5564 | | 邮箱： | hector@cnzsqh.hk | 1 港股市场 重要指数估值 3 港股市场重要指数估值-恒生综合指数（HSCI） 资料来源：Wind 4 港股市场重要指数估值-恒生综合指数（HSCI） 资料来源：Wind 5 港股市场重要指数估值-恒生指数（HSI） 资料来源：Wind 6 港股市场重要指数估值-恒生指数（HSI） 资料来源：Wind 7 港股市场重要指数估值-恒生科技指数（HSTECH） 资料来源：Wind 8 港股市场重要指数估值-恒生科技指数（HSTECH） 资料来源：Wind 9 港股市场 各行业估值水平 10 港股市场各行业估值水平 资料来源：Wind，浙商国际 11 l 港股市场各行业PE估值水平 n 我们选取了2018年初以来的港股市场各个主 要行业的PE (TTM)为样本，来看当下各 ...

港股市场估值周报 2025.2.17-2025.2.23 | 分析师： | 沈凡超 | | --- | --- | | 中央编号： | BTT231 | | 联系电话： | 852-4623 5564 | | 邮箱： | hector@cnzsqh.hk | 港股市场重要指数估值-恒生指数（HSI） 1 目录 2 l 港股市场重要指数估值 l 港股市场各行业估值水平 l AH股溢价/折价水平 港股市场 重要指数估值 3 港股市场重要指数估值-恒生综合指数（HSCI） 资料来源：Wind 4 港股市场重要指数估值-恒生综合指数（HSCI） 资料来源：Wind 5 资料来源：Wind 6 港股市场重要指数估值-恒生指数（HSI） 资料来源：Wind 7 港股市场重要指数估值-恒生科技指数（HSTECH） 资料来源：Wind 8 港股市场重要指数估值-恒生科技指数（HSTECH） 资料来源：Wind 9 资料来源：Wind，浙商国际 数据选取2018年初至今的估值水平。 13 港股市场 各行业估值水平 10 港股市场各行业估值水平 资料来源：Wind，浙商国际 11 l 港股市场各行业PE估值水平 n 我们选取了2 ...