证券研究报告 游戏深度：星辰大海，长期繁荣 ——游戏板块推荐报告 2025年9月8日 行业评级：看好 姓名 冯翠婷 姓名 陈磊 邮箱 fengcuiting@stocke.com.cn 邮箱 chenlei01@stocke.com.cn 证书编号 S1230525010001 证书编号 S1230521090002 推荐综述 推荐理由 行业基本面强势，A股游戏板块上半年营收同比增长22.8%，业绩已在拐点右侧，25H2及2026年有望持续上调业绩，后续将靠EPS预期修复继续驱动板块景气度提升。另外， 板块估值仍处低位，涨幅空间大，配置上建议"高低搭配"。 超预期点 游戏板块整体2026年有望达20倍P/E估值（当前时间点对应2026年平均估值约16倍P/E），进入25Q4后，估值切换有望开启。建议重点关注：1）当前时间点产品线优秀的 右侧标的：ST华通、巨人网络、三七互娱、吉比特，以及港股的腾讯控股、心动公司；产品线新游可期的左侧标的：神州泰岳、恺英网络、完美世界；新技术积极布局的： 盛天网络、掌趣科技等。 爆款游戏驱动下，板块近三个季度市场规模提升较大。我们认为，在当前宏观经济环境与AI提效的背景下，未来 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4][9] Core Views - The company is currently facing performance pressure in H1 2025, with a revenue of 2.82 billion yuan, down 15.57% year-on-year, and a net profit of 175 million yuan, down 40.71% year-on-year [9] - The report anticipates revenue for 2025-2027 to be 5.694 billion, 5.945 billion, and 6.304 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year changes of -9%, +4%, and +6% [2][3] - The expected net profit for the same period is projected to be 348 million, 473 million, and 528 million yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 53%, 36%, and 12% [2][3] Financial Summary - The company's gross profit margin for H1 2025 is reported at 29.92%, a decrease of 0.37 percentage points year-on-year [9] - The expense ratios for sales, management, R&D, and financial costs in H1 2025 are 10.02%, 8.61%, 0.88%, and 0.38%, respectively, with year-on-year changes of +1.10 percentage points, +2.00 percentage points, +0.20 percentage points, and -0.03 percentage points [2][9] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025-2027 are expected to be 0.56, 0.76, and 0.85 yuan, corresponding to price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 29, 21, and 19 times [2][3]

Group 1: Key Recommendations - The report highlights the transformation of Xinsida (002527) under Haier's leadership, focusing on integrated solutions and embodied intelligence, which is expected to enhance the company's competitive edge and financial performance [4][5] - The report anticipates that Xinsida's revenue will grow from 3543 million in 2025 to 4153 million in 2027, with a net profit forecasted to increase significantly from 13 million in 2025 to 190 million in 2027 [5] - The report emphasizes the potential of Henghe Precision (300539) as a high-quality precision manufacturing enterprise, particularly in the automotive parts sector, which is expected to see substantial growth [6][8] Group 2: Market Insights - The report indicates that the automotive intelligent cockpit market is projected to reach 1564 billion in China by 2025, with a growth rate of 21%, driven by the increasing demand for smart automotive components [7] - The report notes that the global automotive tailgate market is expected to reach 15 billion USD by the end of 2027, highlighting the trend towards lightweight automotive components [7][8] - The report discusses the overall positive outlook for the A-share market, suggesting a "slow bull" market with opportunities for strategic adjustments in investment portfolios [10][11] Group 3: Industry Trends - The report identifies AI as a key driver of growth in the technology sector, particularly in computing and communication industries, with significant profit growth expected [14] - The report highlights that the demand for electric two-wheeled vehicles is improving the profitability of the automotive industry, despite the limited number of companies in this sector [13][14] - The report suggests that the supply-demand dynamics in the market are continuously improving, with a notable focus on AI-related performance [14]

Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Long - term, major inflection points of convertible bonds are basically synchronous with equities, and capital behavior determines the actual performance of convertible bonds in trending markets. Short - term, capital attitude and behavior determine the performance of convertible bonds around phased inflection points. The convertible bond index may enter a volatile phase in the short term, following changes in the equity market with potentially increased market volatility [1][3][12] - After the adjustment, the average price of convertible bonds has declined, the conversion premium rate has decreased, and the problem of over - valued convertible bonds has been alleviated [19] Summary by Directory 1. Convertible Bond Weekly Thinking - Past week, both the equity and convertible bond markets adjusted, stabilized, and rebounded, with convertible bonds performing slightly better than underlying stocks. The Shanghai Composite Index fluctuated above 3800 points, being weak in the first four trading days and significantly rebounding on Friday. The Wind Convertible Bond Equal - Weighted Index rose 0.51% last week, while the Convertible Bond Underlying Stock Equal - Weighted Index fell 0.75%, and the overall market premium rate increased [10] - Since August 27, the amplitude of the convertible bond market has increased, with different driving factors. On August 27 and September 1, the adjustment was mainly due to capital outflows from the convertible bond market, and convertible bonds underperformed underlying stocks. On September 2, the decline and on September 5, the increase were mainly due to changes in the equity market, with parity driving the performance of convertible bonds. On September 5, the high follow - up performance of convertible bonds was due to capital represented by convertible bond ETFs turning to net inflows [2][11] - Absolute return funds have shifted from direct to indirect holding of convertible bonds. In August, institutions other than public funds basically reduced their holdings of convertible bonds due to the shrinking market size, while public funds continued the growth trend from July. From July to August, absolute return funds such as wealth management subsidiaries and trusts continuously reduced their direct holdings of convertible bonds but indirectly held them by buying fixed - income + funds and convertible bond ETFs. The large - scale inflow of fixed - income + funds, likely synchronous with convertible bond ETFs, started in mid - to - early July, driving up the valuation of convertible bonds. Recently, the attitude of fixed - income + funds has changed due to market fluctuations. Convertible bond ETFs had net outflows on September 1 and 2 and large net inflows on September 5. The previous adjustment of convertible bonds was mainly due to the profit - taking sentiment of absolute return funds, and the weak recovery this time is because the price and valuation of the convertible bond market have reached absolute highs, resulting in the convertible bond trend leading that of the equity market slightly [4][15][16] 2. Convertible Bond Market Tracking 2.1 Convertible Bond Market Conditions - The report provides the performance data of various convertible bond indexes in different time periods, including the past week, two weeks, September to date, one month, two months, half - year, and one year. For example, the Wind Convertible Bond Energy Index rose 1.03% in the past week, - 2.75% in the past two weeks, etc. [22] 2.2 Convertible Bond Individual Securities - The report shows the top ten and bottom ten individual convertible bonds in terms of price changes in the past week, but specific bond names are not provided [24] 2.3 Convertible Bond Valuation - The report presents the valuation trends of different types of convertible bonds, such as debt - type, balanced, and equity - type convertible bonds, including the conversion premium rate trends of different parities of convertible bonds [31] 2.4 Convertible Bond Price - The report shows the price median trend of convertible bonds [35]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [4] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 22.6 billion yuan in H1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 107%, and a net profit of 472 million yuan, reflecting a staggering year-on-year growth of 50359% [1] - The company is positioned as a pure player in the hard discount sector and is the only listed company in the bulk snack segment, with a continued focus on new store formats and potential Hong Kong listing [1][3] - The net profit margin has consistently exceeded expectations, with operational capabilities showing continuous improvement [1] Revenue and Profitability - In Q2 2025, the company reported a revenue of 11.8 billion yuan, up 93% year-on-year, and a net profit of 257 million yuan, up 4940% year-on-year [1] - The bulk snack business generated revenue of 11.7 billion yuan in Q2 2025, with a net profit margin of 4.7% after adjusting for share-based payment expenses [1] - The company’s cash flow remains robust, with H1 2025 sales cash receipts of 25.14 billion yuan, inventory of 1.672 billion yuan, and cash reserves of 3.436 billion yuan [1] Store Expansion - The company opened 1,468 new stores in the first half of the year, maintaining a low closure rate of 2% [2] - The total number of stores at the end of the period reached 15,365, with expectations for accelerated store openings in the second half of the year [2] Minority Shareholder Rights Recovery and Financing - The company plans to acquire 49% equity in Nanjing Wanyou for 1.379 billion yuan, increasing its stake to 75% [3] - The company is also planning a Hong Kong listing, aiming to issue up to 15% of its total share capital [3] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The company’s projected net profits for 2025-2027 have been revised upwards to 1.23 billion, 1.83 billion, and 2.39 billion yuan, with growth rates of 319%, 49%, and 30% respectively [3] - The expected earnings per share for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 6.56 yuan, 9.76 yuan, and 12.74 yuan respectively [3] Catalysts - Key catalysts for the company include faster-than-expected store openings, continued improvement in net profit margins, and the recovery of minority shareholder rights [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" [8] Core Views - The company experienced a revenue decline of 9.4% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, with total revenue reaching 9.15 billion yuan and a net profit of 1.03 billion yuan, down 46% [1][2] - The decline in revenue is attributed to competitive pressures in the industry, consumer subsidies for childbirth, and inventory reduction efforts [2] - The gross margin decreased to 61.6%, down 6.3 percentage points, primarily due to an increased proportion of sales from raw milk products [3] - The company has a strong commitment to shareholder returns, distributing a mid-term dividend of 1 billion yuan, representing a 100% payout ratio [4] Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 19.04 billion, 19.99 billion, and 20.83 billion yuan, with year-on-year changes of -8.2%, +5.0%, and +4.2% respectively [5] - The forecasted net profit for the same period is 2.31 billion, 2.60 billion, and 2.98 billion yuan, with year-on-year changes of -35.4%, +13.0%, and +14.6% respectively [5] - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is projected at 0.25 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 15.71 [7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is upgraded to "Buy" [7] Core Views - The company achieved significant revenue growth in the first half of 2025, with total revenue reaching 14.87 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 39.3%, and net profit of 2.72 billion yuan, up 44.1% [1][2] - The company's store network continues to expand, with a total of 53,014 stores as of mid-2025, representing a net increase of 6,535 stores compared to the end of 2024 [3][4] - The company is focusing on both domestic and overseas markets, with strategies tailored to different regions, including aggressive expansion in the domestic market and optimization of existing stores in Southeast Asia [3][4] Revenue Growth - The revenue growth in 25H1 was driven by the expansion of the store network and an increase in average store sales, with the average single-store contribution to sales reaching 278,000 yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.2% [2] - The revenue structure remains stable, with product sales, equipment sales, and franchise-related services contributing 13.84 billion, 650 million, and 380 million yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 39.5%, 42.3%, and 29.8% [2] Operational Strategy - The company is accelerating store openings, particularly in lower-tier cities, while also expanding the "Lucky Coffee" brand, which has seen a significant increase in store numbers [3][4] - The operational strategy for the domestic market focuses on steady expansion and improving store operational quality, while the overseas strategy emphasizes deepening market presence in Southeast Asia [4] Profitability - The gross margin for 25H1 was 31.6%, with a slight decrease of 0.2 percentage points, while the net profit margin improved by 0.6 percentage points to 18.3% [5] - The company maintains a stable cost structure, with sales, management, and R&D expense ratios remaining relatively unchanged [5] Financial Forecasts - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are projected at 32.81 billion, 37.40 billion, and 42.84 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 32.1%, 14.0%, and 14.5% respectively [11] - The forecasted net profit for the same period is expected to be 5.81 billion, 6.67 billion, and 7.69 billion yuan, with growth rates of 30.9%, 14.8%, and 15.3% [11]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [7] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 8.468 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 6.19%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.627 billion yuan, up 3.13% year-on-year [1] - The overseas business has shown significant growth, with revenue reaching 3.075 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.38%, and a gross margin of 58.69%, which is substantially higher than the domestic business [2] - The company continues to enhance its global network through acquisitions, including the recent acquisition of a Brazilian oil terminal, which strengthens its strategic position in the energy transportation sector [2] Financial Performance - In the second quarter of 2025, the company reported revenue of 4.254 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.54%, and a net profit of 1.536 billion yuan, up 1.71% year-on-year [1] - The company’s container throughput increased by 5.7% to 101 million TEU in the first half of 2025, with significant growth in key ports [3] - The company has committed to a shareholder return plan with a minimum dividend payout ratio of 40% from 2024 to 2026, and has repurchased shares worth 337 million yuan as of July 31, 2025 [4] Profit Forecast and Investment Suggestions - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders is 4.8 billion yuan in 2025, 5.0 billion yuan in 2026, and 5.248 billion yuan in 2027, reflecting a strategic enhancement of its position as a key infrastructure provider [5]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [1] Core Viewpoints - The coal sector has shown resilience, with a slight increase in prices and a positive outlook for the second half of the year, suggesting a potential balance between supply and demand [6][23] - The report highlights the importance of positioning in high-dividend coal companies and those undergoing turnaround in coking coal and coke sectors [6][23] Summary by Sections Market Performance - As of September 5, 2025, the CITIC coal industry index rose by 0.1%, outperforming the CSI 300 index, which fell by 0.81%, resulting in a 0.91 percentage point advantage [2] - The highest weekly stock price increase was seen in Yunmei Energy, with a rise of 4.03% [2] Supply and Demand Data - Average daily coal sales for monitored enterprises were 6.67 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 0.9% but a year-on-year decrease of 1.9% [2] - The average daily coal production was 6.64 million tons, showing a week-on-week decrease of 0.1% and a year-on-year decrease of 1.7% [2] - Total coal inventory (including port storage) was 25.85 million tons, down 0.7% week-on-week and down 9.1% year-on-year [2] Price Trends - The price index for thermal coal (Q5500K) was 676 CNY/ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 0.75% [3] - The average price for coking coal at Jing Tang Port was 1550 CNY/ton, down 4.9% week-on-week [4] - The report notes fluctuations in prices across various coal types, with some showing declines while others have remained stable [4][5] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that coal prices are expected to rebound in September, with long-term contract prices for different grades of coal being 674, 613, and 551 CNY/ton respectively [6][23] - Recommended companies for investment include major thermal coal firms such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and others, as well as coking coal companies like Huabei Mining and Shanxi Coking Coal [6][23]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [5] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 176 million yuan in H1 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 77%, with overseas market revenue growing by 189%. The net loss was 115 million yuan, a significant reduction of 58.9%. The expectation is for continued high growth in revenue due to new product launches and accelerated overseas expansion in 2025 [1][2][4]. Summary by Sections Growth Potential - The company is expected to experience high revenue growth in 2025 driven by both domestic and overseas markets. Overseas orders have seen rapid growth, with over 80 commercial orders and more than 60 installations globally. The company has received CE certification for its surgical robots, allowing for expansion into various surgical fields [2][3]. - The domestic market is also poised for growth as the National Health Commission has increased the number of approved laparoscopic surgical systems significantly, which is expected to boost installations [2]. - New products are being commercialized, including a single-port surgical robot and a remote surgical robot, enhancing market competitiveness [2][3]. Profitability - The company reported a net loss of 115 million yuan in H1 2025, a reduction of 58.9%. With ongoing product rollouts and improved management, the expense ratio is expected to decline, leading to further narrowing of losses in 2025 [4]. Financial Forecast and Valuation - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 480 million, 885 million, and 1.302 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 86.55%, 84.38%, and 47.11% respectively. The expected net profit for 2025 is projected at -258 million yuan, with an EPS of -0.25 yuan [5][11].