Group 1 - The report highlights the significant impact of tariff policies on global asset pricing, particularly emphasizing the introduction of reciprocal tariffs by the Trump administration, which has exceeded market expectations [13][17][21] - The report discusses the underlying reasons for the aggressive tariff measures, linking them to the U.S. fiscal deficit pressures and the need for revenue generation through tariffs [21][24] - The analysis indicates that the U.S. economy is facing rising recession risks, with inflation expectations increasing sharply, leading to concerns about stagflation [28][29] Group 2 - The report notes that the recent U.S.-China trade negotiations have yielded results that surpass market expectations, with significant tariff reductions agreed upon [39][40] - It emphasizes that China has gained a strategic advantage in the negotiations, reflecting the differing macroeconomic conditions faced by both countries [42] - The report warns of the uncertainties surrounding future tariff policies, suggesting that the recent agreements may be temporary and subject to change based on political dynamics [43] Group 3 - The report outlines the monetary policy measures introduced by the Chinese central bank to support the economy amid external pressures, including a series of interest rate cuts and liquidity provisions [52][56] - It highlights the expected economic recovery in China, driven by these monetary policies and the easing of trade tensions with the U.S. [56][57] - The report suggests that the long-term outlook for the Chinese economy remains positive, with a focus on high-quality development despite short-term uncertainties [49][57]

Market Overview - On June 3, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.43%, the CSI 300 increased by 0.31%, the STAR 50 gained 0.48%, the CSI 1000 was up by 0.72%, the ChiNext Index rose by 0.48%, and the Hang Seng Index increased by 1.53% [4] - The best-performing sectors on June 3 were Beauty Care (+3.86%), Textile and Apparel (+2.53%), Comprehensive (+2.02%), Banking (+1.98%), and Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery (+1.8%). The worst-performing sectors were Home Appliances (-2.1%), Steel (-1.37%), Coal (-0.84%), Building Materials (-0.52%), and Environmental Protection (-0.4%) [4] - The total trading volume of the A-share market on June 3 was 11,638.3 billion yuan, with a net inflow of 3.905 billion Hong Kong dollars from southbound funds [4] Important Recommendations Company: Nanjing Bank (601009) - The recommendation logic for Nanjing Bank is based on improved operational momentum, high cost-effectiveness in dividend valuation, and the potential for convertible bonds to enhance growth, with expectations for valuation to return to the top tier of city commercial banks [5] - The bank's performance is expected to show a positive U-shaped trend in 2025, driven by optimized management and improved profitability in both corporate and retail sectors [5] - The target price is set at 15.70 yuan per share, corresponding to a 2025 PB of 1.00 times, indicating a potential upside of 37% [6] Company: Rijing Electronics (603286) - Rijing Electronics has transitioned from motorcycle wiring harnesses to intelligent automotive components, leveraging nearly 30 years of experience [7] - The company is expected to continue upgrading its products, moving from resistive to magnetoelectric solutions, and is building a multi-modal electronic skin product matrix [8] - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 1,199.28 million yuan, 1,496.20 million yuan, and 1,881.04 million yuan, with growth rates of 23.55%, 24.76%, and 25.72% respectively [8]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the economic fundamentals in May show signs of recovery, with export-driven improvements potentially leading to synchronized supply and demand, although price levels have not yet rebounded, suggesting a continued divergence in volume and price [2] - The market anticipates an increase in fiscal policy measures [2] - The report highlights that the official PMI data released by the National Bureau of Statistics serves as a driving factor for the current economic outlook [2] Group 2 - The report maintains a neutral stance on the outlook, indicating no significant changes in perspective [2] - It emphasizes the need to observe the volatility of economic fundamentals, particularly the slope and sustainability of foreign trade recovery [2]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is optimistic [1][24]. Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the importance of bottom positioning during the off-season for the steel industry [1]. - It highlights the recent trends in steel prices and inventory levels, indicating a potential for recovery [3][5]. Price Trends - The SW Steel Index is at 2,124, with a weekly decline of 0.7% and a year-to-date increase of 1.0% [3]. - The price of rebar (HRB400 20mm) is 3,130 CNY/ton, showing a weekly decrease of 0.9% and a year-to-date decline of 8.2% [3]. - Hot-rolled coil is priced at 3,160 CNY/ton, with a weekly drop of 2.5% and a year-to-date decrease of 7.6% [3]. Inventory Levels - The total social inventory of five major steel products is 9.31 million tons, reflecting a weekly decrease of 2.9% and a year-to-date increase of 22.8% [5]. - The total inventory at steel mills is 4.33 million tons, with a weekly decline of 10.1% and a year-to-date increase of 23.7% [5]. - Iron ore port inventory stands at 13.86 million tons, unchanged week-on-week but up 6.7% year-to-date [5]. Supply and Demand - The weekly output of five major steel products is projected to be stable, with daily average pig iron production expected to maintain current levels [9][12]. - The report indicates a steady demand for rebar, with apparent demand figures showing resilience [15].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [1] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the importance of bottom positioning during the off-season for the steel industry [1] - The report provides weekly data on steel prices, indicating fluctuations in various steel products and raw materials [3][5] - The total social inventory of five major steel products is reported at 9.31 million tons, with a year-to-date increase of 22.8% [5] - The report highlights the current state of iron ore port inventory at 138.64 million tons, showing a decrease of 6.7% year-to-date [5] Price Data Summary - The SW Steel Index is at 2,124, with a weekly decline of 0.7% and a year-to-date increase of 1.0% [3] - Rebar (HRB400 20mm) is priced at 3,130 CNY/ton, reflecting a weekly decrease of 0.9% and a year-to-date decline of 8.2% [3] - Hot-rolled coil is priced at 3,160 CNY/ton, with a weekly decrease of 2.5% and a year-to-date decline of 7.6% [3] - Cold-rolled steel is priced at 3,520 CNY/ton, showing a weekly decrease of 3.3% and a year-to-date decline of 14.4% [3] Inventory Summary - The total inventory of five major steel products in social storage is 9.31 million tons, with a weekly increase of 2.9% [5] - The total inventory at steel mills is 4.33 million tons, reflecting a weekly decrease of 10.1% [5] - Iron ore port inventory stands at 138.64 million tons, with a weekly decrease of 0.9% [5] Supply and Demand Summary - The report indicates the weekly production of five major steel products, with a focus on the average daily molten iron output [8] - The report provides insights into the operating rates of blast furnaces and electric furnaces across China, indicating trends in production capacity utilization [11][13]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the winning probabilities of the equity and convertible bond markets were relatively insufficient, with various broad-based and convertible bond indices showing different trends. Short-term performance may be pressured by tariff disturbances. Since May, the equity market's rise has been characterized by a rebound from oversold conditions. Investors entered the market actively based on odds considerations, and with institutional support, the market continued to rise. However, after the Shanghai Composite Index reached a high on May 14, the logic of the rebound has changed, and market divergence has increased. Considering the uncertainty of future tariff policies, style rotation may accelerate. The dumbbell allocation strategy may continue to be advantageous [1][2][7] - In the short term, the winning probabilities of the equity and convertible bond markets are relatively insufficient and may be pressured by tariff disturbances. The risk of a significant short-term decline is limited, and the market will likely remain volatile. The dividend style benefits from policy support, and the technology growth style has re-entered the institutional view after a valuation correction [2][7] - It is recommended that investors focus on high-grade, fundamentally stable convertible bonds. The market style will still tend to be stable. Strategies should balance defense and theme flexibility. Suggested areas to focus on include the dividend, technology growth, and large consumption sectors [8] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog 1 Market Observation - From May 26 to May 30, various broad-based and convertible bond indices showed different trends, with some convertible bond indices leading the gains. Balanced and equity-based valuations were compressed [7] - The market was volatile this week, with insufficient winning probabilities for major indices and significant sector differentiation. Environmental protection, medicine, and military industries led the gains. The small-cap style was dominant. The bond market had low volatility and weak trading sentiment due to the lack of a macro trading theme and limited odds space [2][7] - The equity market may be pressured by tariffs in the short term. The risk of a significant decline is limited, and the market will remain volatile. After the high on May 14, market divergence increased, and trading volume decreased. Style rotation may accelerate, with the dividend style benefiting from policies and the technology growth style re-entering institutional consideration after a valuation correction [2][7] - In the short term, investors are advised to focus on high-grade, fundamentally stable convertible bonds. Strategies should balance defense and theme flexibility. Suggested areas to focus on include the dividend, technology growth, and large consumption sectors [8] 2 Convertible Bond Market Tracking 2.1 Convertible Bond Market Trends - Not provided in the given content 2.2 Individual Convertible Bonds - Not provided in the given content 2.3 Convertible Bond Valuations - Not provided in the given content 2.4 Convertible Bond Prices - Not provided in the given content

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the food and beverage industry [4]. Core Viewpoints - The new consumption trend continues, focusing on low-priced/undervalued stocks with potential catalysts, particularly in the food sector, new retail channels, and health products [2][29]. - The report highlights the need to pay attention to the white liquor sector, which may face pressure in the second quarter, suggesting a focus on leading brands with strong market positions [16][29]. Summary by Sections White Liquor Sector - The white liquor sector is currently under pressure, with a recommendation to prioritize leading brands such as Guizhou Moutai, Wuliangye, and Shanxi Fenjiu for mid-term investments [16][29]. - Recent policies regarding public receptions may impact white liquor consumption, but the overall effect is expected to be limited due to a shift from government to business consumption since 2016 [7][16]. - The report notes that the white liquor sector is still in a bottoming phase, with opportunities for mid-term positioning in leading brands [4][16]. Consumer Goods Sector - The consumer goods sector shows a continuation of the new consumption trend, with a focus on potential catalysts in food categories, new retail channels, and health products [2][29]. - Recommended stocks in this sector include Jin Zai Foods, New Dairy, Anji Foods, and others, with a focus on companies that can leverage new retail opportunities [2][29]. Market Performance - From May 26 to May 30, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 1.08%, while non-dairy beverages and other liquor categories saw gains of 8.96% and 7.93%, respectively, with white liquor declining by 2.80% [2][35]. - Specific stocks such as Tianyoude Liquor and Huazhi Liquor showed positive performance, while others like Luzhou Laojiao and Shanxi Fenjiu experienced declines [3][39]. Price Trends - The report provides insights into the pricing trends of key white liquor brands, indicating stable prices for Guizhou Moutai and Wuliangye, with slight fluctuations noted [15][55].

Economic Overview - The GDP weekly high-frequency prosperity index as of May 31 is 5.7%, remaining stable compared to the previous week's revised value of 5.7%, indicating relative economic stability[1] - The service and industrial high-frequency indicators are generally stable compared to last week[1] Production Insights - The industrial weekly prosperity index is at 8.1%, showing stability, while the service sector index is at 4.0%, also stable[12] - The average daily output of key iron enterprises has slightly decreased, indicating a potential slowdown in industrial production[13] Demand Analysis - Consumer demand continues to strengthen, with the consumption high-frequency index rising to 5.2%, up from 4.7% the previous week[12] - Fixed asset investment remains weak, with rebar apparent demand at 248.9 million tons, showing little change[12] - Export container throughput increased to 656,400 TEUs, up from 633,400 TEUs, indicating a positive trend in exports[12] Real Estate Trends - New housing sales in 30 major cities decreased to 188.76 million square meters, down 7% week-on-week and 20% year-on-year[48] - The cumulative transaction area for new homes in 2025 is 3,767 million square meters, with a year-on-year increase of 0.73%[48] Price Movements - The agricultural wholesale price index remains under pressure, with the pork price decreasing by 0.3% week-on-week[61] - The production material market prices have decreased by 0.6% compared to the previous week, indicating a mixed price trend in consumer goods[61]

Group 1: Economic Indicators - The manufacturing PMI for May is 49.5%, an increase of 0.5 percentage points from April, indicating marginal improvement in manufacturing activity[1] - The production index rose to 50.7%, up 0.9 percentage points from April, returning to the expansion zone after briefly falling below 50%[3] - The new orders index recorded 49.8%, an increase of 0.6 percentage points from April, suggesting a slowdown in the decline of manufacturing demand[11] Group 2: Industry Performance - High-tech manufacturing PMI stands at 50.9%, maintaining expansion for four consecutive months[1] - Equipment manufacturing PMI increased to 51.2%, up 1.6 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a recovery in this sector[1] - The coal-fired power generation's cumulative output in May increased by 1.9% year-on-year, while cumulative output for the year decreased by 6.8%[6] Group 3: External Trade and Demand - The new export orders index for May is 47.5%, up 2.8 percentage points from April, reflecting cautious optimism in external demand[15] - The government plans to increase support for consumer goods replacement, raising the special bonds for this initiative from 150 billion yuan to 300 billion yuan[12] - The automotive market saw a retail scale of approximately 1.85 million vehicles in May, a year-on-year increase of 8.5%[13]

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced narrow fluctuations, with major indices showing a "dilemma" pattern, where the Shanghai Composite Index, SSE 50, and CSI 300 fell by 0.03%, 1.22%, and 1.08% respectively[54] - The North China 50 index rose by 2.82%, indicating stronger performance compared to other indices[11] - The TMT sector showed some recovery, while export-related sectors performed weakly, with automotive and electric new energy sectors declining by 4.32% and 2.21% respectively[12] Market Sentiment and Capital Flow - The average daily trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 1.07 trillion yuan, showing a slight decrease from the previous week[18] - The margin trading balance remained stable at 1.80 trillion yuan, with the proportion of financing purchases rising to 8.70%[28] - Stock ETFs saw a net inflow of 12.45 billion yuan, with the securities ETF experiencing the highest inflow[28] Future Outlook - The market is expected to maintain a trend of oscillation and narrow fluctuations, as the technical pressure on major indices has become clear, particularly around the gap formed on April 10 (3186-3201 points)[4] - The brokerage sector, which has been adjusting since November 8, 2024, is seen as a potential "breaker" of the current dilemma, warranting increased attention[4] - It is recommended to maintain current mid-line positions and consider increasing allocations if a rapid market pullback occurs, especially near the April 10 gap[4] Risks - There are risks associated with domestic economic recovery not meeting expectations and uncertainties in global geopolitical situations[58]