环球市场动态 预 期 10 年 期 美 债 利 率 仍 将 维 持 高 位 股 票 中国市场周四情绪偏低，市场受到 社融数据偏低影响，美国最新制裁 华为芯片也令科技股承压；欧洲市 场低开高走，欧元区最新制造业数 据好于预期推动市场情绪向好；美 股个别发展，美国 4 月份 PPI 及零 售销售等多项经济数据疲弱，早盘 大跌，但鲍威尔发言后市场解读为 提升降息预期，最终标指四连升， 纳指小幅回落。 外 汇 / 商 品 消息指美国可能与伊朗达成核武协 议，市场忧虑原油供应增加，拖累 周四国际油价下跌。美国经济数据 疲弱，美元汇价下滑，加上普京不 出席与乌克兰和谈，牵动国际金价 回升。 固 定 收 益 周四美国经济数据疲软，市场对美 联储的宽松预期再度升温。债券市 场反弹，前天的美债抛售被逆转， 5-10 年期美债收益率下挫超 10 个 基点。亚洲投资级债券利差收窄放 缓，收盘利差收窄 1-2 个基点。 产品及投资方案部 注：bp/bps=基点；pt/pts=百分点 中信证券财富管理 (香港) 免责声明请参考封底 2025 年 5 月 16 日 中 欧 美 市 场 欧美主要指数 主要指数 指数 收盘点位 1日涨跌 ( ...

环球市场动态 周三中国股市情绪向好，大金融板 块银行保险大爆发，新一轮"抢出 口"推动港口航运板块连续飙升；欧 洲股市普遍走低，市场观望俄乌谈 判走势；美股涨跌不一，科技股继 续表现，特朗普中东之行签订大量 芯片订单，芯片股继续领涨，医药 股则继续承压。 外 汇 / 商 品 美国原油库存意外上升，国际油价 周三从两周高点回落。中美两国贸 易争拗有望缓和，市场避险情绪持 续降温，金价创下逾一个月新低。 报道指美国无意令美汇贬值作为贸 易谈判筹码，美元指数先跌后回稳。 固 定 收 益 低 基 数 效 应 主 导 内 地 社 融 增 长 股 票 周三美国国债收益率攀升，因市场 进一步削减美联储降息预期, 加上 投资者关注特朗普政府的减税政 策，忧虑赤字扩大，需要增加国债 供应。10 年期美债收益率自二月以 来首次收于 4.5%以上。亚洲市场延 续坚挺表现，利差收窄 2-4 个基点。 产品及投资方案部 注：bp/bps=基点；pt/pts=百分点 中信证券财富管理 (香港) 免责声明请参考封底 2025 年 5 月 15 日 中 板 块 要 闻 从一季报看美股半导体 2025 年投资策略。受关税影响，费城半导体指数 ...

环球市场动态 美 国 4 月 CPI 同 比 增 速 可 能 是 今 年 低 点 股 票 周二中国市场出现回调，A 股沪指 上涨但市场缺乏持续性，港股低开 低走恒生科技指数大跌；欧股小幅 上涨，特朗普将矛头转向欧洲令投 资者趋于谨慎；美国 4 月份 CPI 低 于预期提振股市，标指今年至今重 回正增长，英伟达带领科技股大涨。 外 汇 / 商 品 美国通胀数据较预期温和，加上中 美关税暂缓利好情绪持续，周二国 际油价续涨逾 2%。市场对降息预 期有所升温，美元指数回落，支持 金价造好。 固 定 收 益 美国 4 月 CPI 弱于预期，但关税对 通胀影响仍未显现。市场风险偏好 回升，短期美债收益率小幅下跌， 长端收益率微涨，整体曲线变动不 大。亚洲债市走势相对分化，中国 投资级债券利差变动不大，利差已 回到历史最低水平范围。 产品及投资方案部 注：bp/bps=基点；pt/pts=百分点 中信证券财富管理 (香港) 免责声明请参考封底 产品及投资方案部 I 环球市场动态 I 2025 年 5 月 14 日 欧 美 市 场 | 欧美主要指数 | | | | | | | 主要指数 | | | | | | | | -- ...

Market Overview - The US-China trade negotiations have made substantial progress, leading to a general rise in global assets, with the A-share market opening high and the military industry sector remaining strong[3] - The Hang Seng Index surged nearly 700 points, while European markets reached new highs, and the Nasdaq entered a technical bull market with a 4.35% increase[3] Trade Agreement Impact - A temporary agreement to significantly reduce tariffs was reached, with US tariffs on China expected to drop to around 44%[5] - The agreement is anticipated to support exports to the US and ASEAN countries, bolstering foreign trade in the coming quarters[5] Stock Market Performance - The Dow Jones increased by 1,160 points (2.81%), the S&P 500 rose by 3.26%, and the Nasdaq gained 4.35%[8] - The Golden Dragon China Index surged by 5.4%, with major Chinese stocks like JD, Pinduoduo, and Alibaba seeing increases of 5.7% to 6.5%[8] Commodity and Currency Movements - International oil prices rose over 1%, reaching a two-week high, while gold prices fell by over 3% due to reduced market risk aversion[4][26] - The US dollar index increased by 1.44%, impacting gold prices negatively, which fell to $3,228 per ounce[26] Fixed Income Market - US Treasury yields rose significantly, with the 2-year yield up by 11.9 basis points to 4.01% and the 10-year yield up by 9.2 basis points to 4.47%[28] - Asian investment-grade bond spreads narrowed by 5-10 basis points, with notable performance in Chinese investment-grade bonds[28] Sector Performance - In the US, technology stocks, particularly in semiconductors and internet sectors, are expected to benefit from the easing of trade tensions[8] - The A-share market saw significant gains in aerospace and military sectors, with stocks like AVIC and Chengfei Integration hitting their daily limits[15]

按一下此處編輯母版標題樣式 文件名 产品及投资方案部 ｜2025年5月12日 每周投资策略 中信証券財富管理 (香港) CITIC Securities Wealth Management (HK) 投资策略 每周投资策略 上周环球 大类资产表现 本周主要国家 经济数据公布日程 (1) 中国市场焦点 政策包助力稳市场预期 股票 关注贸易摩擦下的确定性； 阳光电源；恒瑞医药 ETF 华夏沪深300指数ETF (2) 日本市场焦点 贸易战拖累 日本经济增长 股票 关注稳健的高股息股票； 日本高息股列表 ETF NEXT FUNDS日经225 高股息股票50 ETF (3) 澳大利亚市场焦点 工党以大比数优势 胜出大选 股票 过往能源及原材料板块在 工党胜选后表现优异; Northern Star； 萊納斯稀土 ETF iShares安硕MSCI 澳大利亚ETF 资料来源：中信证券财富管理 (香港) 1 上周环球 股市表现 英美达成贸易协定，中美开启贸易谈判，全球市场情绪向好 | | | | | | 环球主要股票市场表现 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | - ...

Market Overview - A-shares opened lower but closed higher, with military stocks leading the market amid the India-Pakistan conflict; the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.28% to 3,352 points[16] - The Hang Seng Index experienced a six-day rise, closing up 0.37%[11] - U.S. and U.K. reached a trade agreement, boosting market sentiment; the Dow Jones increased by 254 points or 0.62%[9] Economic Indicators - The U.S. dollar index rose above 100, increasing by 1.03% to 100.64, while gold prices fell by 2.53% to $3,306 per ounce[27] - U.S. Treasury yields rose by 7-12 basis points, with the 10-year yield at 4.38% and the 30-year yield at 4.84%[30] Sector Performance - In the U.S., 7 out of 11 S&P sectors rose, with non-core consumer goods leading at +1.35%[9] - In Hong Kong, military stocks surged over 6% due to ongoing tensions, while technology stocks also performed well[11] Trade Developments - The U.S. and U.K. announced a trade agreement, marking the first since the trade war began in April; this has raised hopes for progress in other trade negotiations, including with China[9] - Trump indicated potential tariff reductions on China, which could further influence market dynamics[30] Investment Insights - Global AI capital expenditure (CAPEX) growth forecast adjusted to +64% for 2025, down from +77%, due to ongoing tariff concerns and market uncertainties[8] - Companies like Broadcom, Micron, and Nvidia are recommended for investment due to their resilience against tariff impacts[8]

Monetary Policy and Economic Outlook - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) announced a comprehensive monetary policy package, including a 0.1 percentage point reduction in policy rates and a 0.5 percentage point cut in the reserve requirement ratio, releasing approximately 1 trillion yuan in long-term funds[6] - The Federal Reserve maintained its interest rate at 4.25%-4.50%, indicating no immediate need for rate cuts, while emphasizing increased uncertainty in the economic outlook[11][33] - The U.S. Treasury Secretary stated that new investment rules regarding China are being developed, reflecting ongoing geopolitical tensions[6] Market Performance - U.S. stock indices showed mixed results, with the Dow Jones rising by 0.7% to close at 41,114 points, while the Nasdaq increased by 0.3% to 17,738 points[11] - The Hang Seng Index in Hong Kong rose slightly by 0.1% to 22,691 points, supported by PBOC's monetary easing measures[13] - The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 0.80% to 3,342.67 points, driven by financial stocks following the announcement of interest rate cuts[18] Commodity and Currency Movements - International oil prices fell, with WTI crude down 1.73% to $58.07 per barrel, influenced by an unexpected increase in U.S. gasoline inventories[29] - The U.S. dollar index rose by 0.38% to 99.614, while gold prices decreased by 0.90% to $3,391.9 per ounce following the Fed's announcement[29] - The Chinese yuan traded at 7.228 against the U.S. dollar, showing a slight depreciation of 0.1%[28] Corporate Highlights - Disney reported a significant turnaround with a net profit of $3.275 billion for Q2 2025, compared to a loss of $20 million in the same period last year, leading to a stock price increase of 10.76%[9] - Alibaba is projected to achieve a revenue growth of 8% year-on-year, reaching approximately 237 billion yuan, with an adjusted EPS growth of 32.5%[16]

Market Overview - The A-share market saw a positive start after the May Day holiday, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 1.13% to 3,316.11 points, and the Shenzhen Component Index increasing by 1.84% to 10,082.34 points[16] - The international oil price rebounded over 3% from a four-year low, with NYMEX crude oil rising 3.43% to $59.09 per barrel, driven by signs of a potential decline in U.S. production[27] Economic Indicators - During the May Day holiday, 314 million domestic trips were made in China, with total spending exceeding 180 billion RMB, reflecting an 8.0% year-on-year increase[16] - The U.S. trade deficit reached a record high in March, raising concerns about economic stability[6] Stock Market Performance - U.S. stock markets experienced declines, with the Dow Jones falling 389 points (0.95%) to 40,829 points, and the S&P 500 dropping 0.77% to 5,606 points[9] - European markets showed mixed results, with the UK FTSE 100 index rising for the 16th consecutive day, closing at 8,597 points, while the German DAX index fell 0.41% to 23,249 points[9] Commodity Trends - The commodity market outlook remains weak, with expectations of "oversupply" if OPEC+ continues to increase production, potentially leading to downward pressure on oil prices[6] - Gold is expected to outperform copper and oil in the commodity market, maintaining a strong position amid economic uncertainties[6] Currency Movements - The U.S. dollar index fell by 0.59% to 99.238, influenced by low U.S. Treasury yields and market expectations of a slower pace of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve[27] - The euro appreciated against the dollar, with the exchange rate at 1.137, reflecting a 0.5% increase[26] Fixed Income Market - The U.S. Treasury market showed strong demand, particularly for the 10-year Treasury auction, which had an indirect bid ratio of 91.1%, the highest since February 2023[29] - The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note was reported at 4.29%, down 4.9 basis points from the previous day[29]

Market Overview - U.S. economic data shows resilience despite tariff impacts, with Q1 GDP growth turning negative due to increased imports[6] - April's non-farm payrolls exceeded expectations, with unemployment rate stable, indicating a healthy job market[6] - Market expectations for interest rate cuts have decreased from four to three times this year, with the Fed likely to maintain rates in May[6] Stock Market Performance - U.S. stock indices experienced mixed results, with the Dow Jones down 0.24% to 41,218.8, and the S&P 500 down 0.64% to 5,650.4[9] - European markets showed varied performance, with Germany's DAX rising 1.12% to 23,344.5, marking a nine-day winning streak[9] - In Asia, Vietnam's market led gains with a 1.1% increase, while Taiwan's market fell 1.2% to 20,533[22] Currency and Commodity Trends - Asian currencies strengthened against the USD, with the Japanese yen leading G-10 currencies[4] - International oil prices fell nearly 2% due to OPEC+ production increase concerns, while gold prices rose over 2% amid ongoing trade war risks[4] - The U.S. dollar index decreased by 0.2%, reflecting a year-to-date decline of 8%[27] Fixed Income Insights - U.S. Treasury yields rose for the third consecutive day, with the 10-year yield at 4.34%, reflecting reduced rate cut expectations[31] - Corporate bond issuance remains active, with significant new debt offerings from major companies like Apple and General Motors[31] Sector Highlights - The technology sector in Hong Kong saw strong performance, with the Hang Seng Tech Index up 3.08%[11] - The travel market showed robust demand during the May Day holiday, with domestic tourism expected to exceed 350 million trips, a year-on-year increase of over 15%[18]

Group 1: US Market Focus - The Federal Reserve faces a dilemma regarding interest rate cuts, with expectations of maintaining rates at 4.25-4.5% during the May meeting, while the market anticipates up to two rate cuts within the year [12][13][25] - Major financial stocks like Bank of America and Citigroup are showing strength, despite ongoing pressures in the cyclical and consumer sectors [10][14][18] - Bank of America is considered undervalued, with a projected net interest income growth of 6-7% for 2025, and a return on tangible common equity (ROTCE) nearing 15% by 2026 [19] - Citigroup is optimistic about its stock buyback prospects, having repurchased $1.75 billion in shares in Q1 2025, with expectations for continued buybacks in Q2 [20] Group 2: UK Market Focus - The UK economy is expected to slow down, with a projected GDP growth of 0.8% for 2025, down from 1.1% in the previous year, due to increased challenges from tax hikes and external uncertainties [31][37] - The Bank of England is anticipated to have increased room for rate cuts, with potential reductions expected in the coming months [34][36] - Major UK banks like HSBC and Standard Chartered have shown strong Q1 performance, with HSBC's pre-tax profit exceeding market expectations by 15% [39] Group 3: China and Hong Kong Market Focus - The report indicates that the Chinese market is likely to see a phase of stock performance driven by themes that are less sensitive to earnings, with companies like Tencent Holdings and China Duty Free Group highlighted [44][70] - Tencent is expected to maintain strong growth in its gaming business, with a diverse pipeline of new games set to launch [71] - China Duty Free is positioned favorably amid tariff negotiations, with expectations for improved performance in its Hainan operations [71]