特朗普首批关税预期的多次反转，是春节假期期间外部的主要扰动。 据 Wind 报道和美国白宫官网，2 月 1 日美国总统特朗普签署行政令，以 所谓"边境安全"名义对来自加拿大和墨西哥的进口商品加征 25%的关税，对 中国的进口商品加征 10%的关税，且未给出豁免，同时取消对价值低于 800 美元小额货物的关税豁免。该行政令计划于 2 月 4 日生效，并指出在"危机" 缓解前关税将继续实施。然而，截至北京时间 2 月 4 日 10 时，形势已发生 反转。据 Wind 报道和美国白宫官网，2 月 3 日美墨加元首陆续通话后，美国 将对加拿大和墨西哥的关税暂缓一个月执行，同时就边境安全和贸易平衡等 问题展开谈判。 ▍从交易逻辑上看，谈判筹码、产业转移、财政增收，是对特朗普关税 目标的三种假设，目标不同，金融市场反应也将有所区别。从本次预期反转 看，关税作为"谈判筹码"的理解仍然成立，金融市场对关税预期的反应或为 短期的预期波动，而非方向性的逻辑变化。 随着关税预期的频繁反转，全球大类资产也随之波动，为把握方向，需 进一步明确特朗普关税的目标，与对应的反应机制。 1）假设一，关税是推动其他目标实现的谈判筹码。若该假设成 ...

引文 2025年年初以来，随着特朗普对华加征关税以及美联储暂停降息对国内经济和人民币汇率的影响 加深，央行更加着眼利率、汇率内外均衡的政策调控，2月发布的第四季度货币政策执行报告强调 增强外汇市场韧性、坚决防范汇率超调风险，并删除了此前"加大货币政策调控力度"的表述。回顾 2月资金面，全月央行流动性净回笼超5000亿元，市场期待的降准降息也迟迟未能落地，同时， 在年初信贷开门红、政府债发行创历史同期新高、存款自律协议影响下非银存款大幅少增等多重因 素影响下，大行负债压力加大，资金融出规模降至历史低位，2月DR007利率中枢较1月继续抬 升。不过，在资金价格持续偏高的背景下，受同业活期存款利率下调以及比价效应影响，2月货基 资金融出规模明显增加，带动银行和非银的资金分层现象有所缓解。 展望3月，虽然财政"收少支多"有望对资金面提供一定支撑，但考虑到政府债发行规模仍然较高， 并且今年第一季度起同业活期存款利率自律管理正式纳入MPA考核，银行负债端压力仍存。进一 步考虑到在基本面复苏未出现明显压力的情况下，央行施策重点或仍聚焦于在稳汇率和防风险，预 计3月资金面紧平衡现象或将延续。 预 计 2025 年 3 月 国 ...

Group 1: Financial Data Overview - Total expected fiscal central expenditures amount to 2.4 trillion CNY[3] - Local government bonds due amount to 6.9 billion CNY[3] - 1,230 billion CNY of 7-day reverse repos are set to expire[3] - NCDs maturing total 948 billion CNY[3] Group 2: Upcoming Financial Events - On February 27, industrial enterprise profit data will be released[3] - February 28 marks the beginning of the Spring Festival holiday[3] - February 29 to March 2 will also be Spring Festival holidays[3] - Tax payment deadline on March 5 is projected at 1.6 trillion CNY[3] Group 3: Debt and Repo Expirations - 14-day reverse repos expiring total 14,135 billion CNY[3] - 7-day reverse repos expiring total 4,892 billion CNY[3] - 1-year government bonds due amount to 1,070 billion CNY[3]

环球市场动态 特 朗 普 政 策 对 美 国 就 业 市 场 产 生 负 面 影 响 股 票 周三 A 股齐上涨，机器人、半导体 领涨大市，仅煤炭、银行等少数下 跌；港股板块表现与 A 股相仿，但 收盘涨跌不一，科指小幅上扬；英 国 1 月通胀创 10 个月新高，降息 预期回调下欧股大跌；美股无惧关 税威胁和美联储鹰派会议纪要，三 大指数齐收涨。 外 汇 / 商 品 市场持续关注俄罗斯出口受干扰及 OPEC+会否推迟原定 4 月开始的 增产行动，周三油价造好，布油 3 连 升。美国计划对进口汽车、半导体和 药品等征收关税，资金流入金市避 险，支持现货金曾创新高，惟美元指 数上升，拖累金价收盘转跌。 固 定 收 益 美国国债收盘大多上涨，收益率曲 线趋陡。美联储会议纪要显示，多位 官员认为，在债务上限问题得到解 决前，应考虑暂停或放慢缩表。欧债 收益率再次齐升。亚洲新发债活跃， 中国投资级债券利差收窄 1-3 个基 点。 产品及投资方案部 注：bp/bps=基点；pt/pts=百分点 中信证券财富管理 (香港) 免责声明请参考封底 2025 年 2 月 20 日 .s 入 a. 竹 Equinix (EQIX ...

一级市场方面，上周利率债合计发行16只，发行规模3705.2亿，节后仅有3天的发行窗口，供给 整体下降。跨节后资金压力有所缓解，但资金价格仍偏高，利率债一级情绪有所改善。具体来看： 国债上周共发行5只，发行量2820亿。周三上午国债发行28天、61天及91天贴现，节后资金仍然 较为紧张，短期限品种一级需求持续较弱，分别发在1.4486% 、1.4579%及1.4492%。周五发 行2年和30年国债，其中2年市场分歧较大，招标时现券成交价格在1.22-23%波动，最终边际发 在1.2116%位置，与现券价格基本持平，符合预期。30年市场多看在1.7993%标位，最终如期 发在该位置，边际超过2倍，发行后成交活跃。 政金债上周共发行11只，合计885.2亿。春节后仅有三个工作日，各家政策行均优化发行计划。国 开共发行4只，均缩量10亿发行；周四上午国开在清算所发行3年、7年，两品种利差均小幅走阔； 下午发行1年、10年，两品种需求均较好，特别是250205二级流动性走强，备受关注，利差小幅 走阔。 《中信证券每周观察——利率与金融同业债》是中信证券固定收益部推出的一档总结 和展望每周利率与金融同业债一二级市场情况 ...

★ 数据速递 非农就业人数：美国1月新增非农就业人数为14.3万人，前值为30.7万人。 数据总体：美国1月新增非农就业人数明显回落但前值上调，且失业率有所下降。劳动力参与率小幅增长， 薪资环比增速也有所提升。 分项表现：医疗保健、零售贸易和政府部门是1月非农就业增长的主要来源，不过或受冬季严寒天气影响， 采矿业、油气开采业等行业就业有所下降，临时雇佣服务、休闲和酒店业等行业就业表现欠佳。 综合分析：在加州山火及冬季寒冷天气的背景下，因天气原因未能工作的人数升至57.3万人，为2011年1月 以来的最高水平，或受此影响2025年1月美国新增非农就业人数较前月明显回落。不过另一方面2024年12 月、11月的新增非农就业人数有所上修，2025年1月失业率也下降0.1个百分点至4.0%，且平均时薪环比增 速也有所提升，或反映美国就业市场整体仍相对稳健，在此背景下美联储可能更有底气暂停降息以相机应对 美国政府后续政策的不确定性。 ★ 核心要点 数据总体:美国1月新增非农就业人数明显回落但失业率有所下降。劳动力参与率小幅增 长,而薪资环比增速也有所提升。 失业率：美国1月失业率为4.0%，前值为4.1%。 劳动力参与 ...

Positive Factors - In December 2024, the year-on-year (YoY) growth rate of industrial enterprise profits turned positive at 11%, compared to a previous decline of -7.3%[1][6] - The YoY growth in operating income showed marginal improvement, contributing to the overall profit increase[2][7] - Profit margins remained high, with limited impact from the narrowing YoY decline in both the PPI purchasing price index and factory prices[3][8] - Finished goods inventory pressure was low, and the turnover speed accelerated, indicating improved operational efficiency[2][7] Negative Factors - The YoY growth in operating costs has increased, which could pressure profit margins moving forward[2][7] - The upcoming Spring Festival holiday may disrupt industrial production due to its timing compared to the previous year[4][11] - Uncertainties surrounding U.S. tariff policies on China may also constrain the recovery of corporate profits[4][11] Industry Insights - Increased demand for winter heating has positively impacted the profit growth rate in the electric heating and water industry[5][9] - High-end equipment, intelligent manufacturing, and green manufacturing sectors are experiencing faster profit growth due to ongoing industrial transformation[5][9] - The effectiveness of consumption promotion policies is expected to continue supporting industrial profit recovery, particularly in consumer goods sectors like home appliances and food[4][10]

Group 1: PMI Data Overview - The Manufacturing PMI for January is 49.1%, a decrease of 1 percentage point from the previous value of 50.1%[1] - The Non-manufacturing PMI for January is 50.2%, down by 2 percentage points from the previous value of 52.2%[1] - The Composite PMI for January is 50.1%, a decline of 2.1 percentage points from the previous value of 52.2%[1] Group 2: Positive Factors - The manufacturing PMI's factory price and raw material purchase sub-items have shown improvement, while raw material and finished product inventories continue to decrease[3] - The Non-manufacturing PMI and Composite PMI remain in the expansion range, indicating ongoing growth in certain sectors[3] Group 3: Negative Factors - The Manufacturing PMI has fallen back into the contraction range, with new orders, new export orders, production, and imports all showing marginal weakness[3] - The construction industry PMI has significantly declined, reflecting seasonal impacts[3] Group 4: Sector Analysis - In manufacturing, industries such as food and beverage, textiles, and non-ferrous metal processing have seen production and new order indices enter the contraction range, contributing to the overall PMI decline[4] - In non-manufacturing, despite a decline in construction PMI, sectors related to travel and consumption have improved, driven by the Spring Festival effect, keeping the Composite PMI in the expansion range[4] Group 5: Future Outlook - Fiscal financing processes are expected to accelerate post-holiday, alongside policies promoting equipment updates and consumer goods exchanges, which may support demand recovery[4] - Improved construction conditions may lead to increased production activity, providing support for future PMI readings[4]

Market Performance - The public REITs market continued its downward trend, with the consumption sector experiencing the smallest decline and the municipal environmental sector facing the largest drop[1] - Total trading volume for public REITs today was 562 million CNY, up 0.97% from the previous trading day, indicating moderate trading activity[1] - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 2.54% to close at 3240.94 points, while the Shenzhen Component increased by 3.77% and the ChiNext Index surged by 4.71%[1] Sector Analysis - Among individual REITs, Chongqing Liangjiang and Shen International REITs led the gains, rising by 0.44% and 0.29% respectively[1] - Conversely, Nanjing Expressway and He Da Gaoke REITs were the biggest losers, falling by 2.15% and 2.08% respectively[1] - The overall A-share market saw a trading volume of 1.37 trillion CNY, significantly higher than the previous day's 976.2 billion CNY[1] Bond Market Insights - In the bond market, most government bonds and futures strengthened, while real estate bonds generally declined[1] - The yield on the 10-year government bond was 1.615%, down by 3 basis points from the previous close, indicating a slight widening of the yield spread between 10-year and 1-year bonds[1]

Credit Analysis - Total new RMB loans in December amounted to 990 billion CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 180 billion CNY[2] - Medium- and long-term loans for enterprises saw a significant decrease, contributing to a total credit growth rate of 7.6% in December[1] - Resident short-term loans slightly decreased, while medium- and long-term loans for residents continued to increase due to improved real estate sales[2] Social Financing Insights - Social financing scale reached 2.8575 trillion CNY in December, an increase of 924.9 billion CNY year-on-year[3] - Government and corporate bond financing showed significant growth, with government bonds notably increasing due to the issuance of refinancing special bonds[3] - The year-on-year decrease in non-bank deposits was influenced by reduced interbank deposit interest rates following new initiatives[3] Deposit Trends - Total deposits decreased by 1.4 trillion CNY year-on-year, primarily due to significant reductions in fiscal and non-bank deposits[8] - Both corporate and resident deposits increased year-on-year, with M1's decline narrowing to -1.4% and M2's growth rate rebounding to 7.3%[8] Future Outlook - The central bank plans to enhance counter-cyclical regulation and increase monetary and credit supply, aiming to lower social financing costs[4] - The mismatch of the Spring Festival holiday this year compared to last year may disrupt future financial data recovery[4] - Continuous monitoring of M1 trends is necessary due to adjustments in statistical criteria[4]