Group 1: Eurozone Focus - The European Central Bank (ECB) appears satisfied with the current inflation situation, indicating no necessity for further rate cuts in the second half of the year [9][11][14] - The "Rearmament of Europe" initiative is expected to benefit industries such as traditional military manufacturing, dual-use high technology, strategic resources, and energy security, with a focus on the aerospace and defense sectors [20][22] - Rheinmetall and Airbus are identified as key beneficiaries of the "Rearmament of Europe" plan, with Rheinmetall projected to see a 20% revenue growth due to increased defense spending [22][21] Group 2: Indian Market Focus - The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) cut the key repo rate by 50 basis points to 5.5%, exceeding market expectations, while maintaining a neutral stance due to limited growth support [31][29] - There is an anticipated further rate cut of 25-50 basis points in the current fiscal year, driven by moderate growth prospects and weak private consumption [34][32] - The Indian stock market is currently overvalued, with the Nifty index's earnings per share forecast being significantly downgraded, leading to cautious short-term return expectations [37][35] Group 3: Thai Market Focus - Political instability in Thailand is hindering economic recovery, with significant pressure on the stock market and a cautious outlook on corporate earnings [41][51] - The Bank of Thailand (BOT) has maintained the policy rate at 1.75% but is expected to lower it to 1.25% later this year to support the economy [47][46] - CP All and Minor International are highlighted as resilient players in the Thai market, with CP All benefiting from 7-Eleven's growth and Minor International having long-term rebound potential despite short-term pressures [52][51]

环球市场动态 内 地 5 月 工 业 企 业 利 润 同 比 下 降 股 票 上周五港股于期指结算日高开低 走。A 股走势分歧，亚太股市个别 发展，其中日本及菲律宾市场涨幅 居前，泰国市场跌幅较大。市场憧 憬欧美能够在期限前达成关税协 议，支持欧美股市造好。拉美股市 下跌，跑输环球股市。 外 汇 / 商 品 交易员关注美伊核谈判前景以及 OPEC+继续大幅增产的可能性，上 周五国际油价靠稳；避险需求降温， 国际金价走低；美元指数五连跌后 反弹；特朗普宣布立即中断与加拿 大的贸易谈判，加元领跌 G-10 货 币。 固 定 收 益 上周五美国国债开盘下跌，日内走 势震荡，收益率曲线趋陡。本周 OBBB 法案期限将至，并有 6 月非 农等数据公布。亚洲债券市场走势 分化，中国投资级债券买盘相对活 跃。 产品及投资方案部 注：bp/bps=基点；pt/pts=百分点 中信证券财富管理 (香港) 免责声明请参考封底 2025 年 6 月 30 日 123 ▪ 2025 年 5 月内地规上工业企业利润同比下降 9.1%，较上月回落 12.1 个百分点，营业收入同比增长 0.8%，较 上月回落 1.8 个百分点。分结构上仅 ...

Market Overview - A-shares experienced a slight decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.22% to 3,448 points, while trading volume remained high at 1.62 trillion yuan[13] - U.S. stock markets saw all three major indices rise, with the Dow Jones up 0.94% to 43,386.8 points, and the S&P 500 increasing by 0.80% to 6,141 points, driven by optimism over potential interest rate cuts[8] - European markets generally rose, with the Stoxx 600 index up 0.09%, supported by easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East[8] Currency and Commodities - The U.S. dollar index fell for five consecutive days, closing down 0.5% at 97.15, marking a three-year low, influenced by strong economic data suggesting at least two interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year[26] - International gold prices saw a slight increase, rising 0.2% to $3,333.5 per ounce, as traders weighed Middle Eastern tensions against the Fed's rate cut outlook[26] - Oil prices remained stable, with WTI crude oil up 0.49% to $65.24 per barrel, amid assessments of Iranian oil supply risks[26] Fixed Income - Weak economic data led to a rise in U.S. Treasury yields, with the 10-year yield down 4.9 basis points to 4.24%[30] - The Asian bond market showed mixed sentiment, with Chinese investment-grade bonds experiencing active two-way trading and spreads widening by 1-2 basis points[30] Key Developments - The Chinese yuan has shown resilience, maintaining a "low volatility + resilience" characteristic, attributed to a weakening dollar index and domestic policy support[5] - The U.S. revised its Q1 GDP down to a contraction of 0.5%, exceeding the previous estimate of -0.2%, indicating the first economic shrinkage in three years[8] - The Hong Kong stock market faced pressure, with the Hang Seng Index down 0.61%, influenced by tight liquidity conditions[10]

环球市场动态 预 计 常 规 流 动 性 工 具 将 维 持 净 投 放 股 票 周三中国市场继续上涨，大金融股 领涨大市，证券、保险纷纷得到政 策支持；欧股周三收跌，市场谨慎 观望以色列伊朗脆弱的停火协议状 况；美股在记录高位附近遭遇阻力， 但英伟达 (NVDA US) 仍创新高重 回市值第一，金龙中国指数下跌。 外 汇 / 商 品 特朗普淡化近期放松对伊朗制裁的 可能性，美国原油库存连续第五周 下降，周三国际油价反弹近 1%；投 资者权衡中东局势和鲍威尔暗示将 谨慎行动，国际金价微涨。 固 定 收 益 周三美国国债交投清淡，收益率曲 线趋陡，盘中在区间内波动。美联 储公布银行资本金规则修订草案。 5 年期美债拍卖中标利率略高于发 行前交易水平。亚洲债市交投活跃， 日本债市较坚挺；中国投资级债券 交投清淡，利差轻微走阔。 产品及投资方案部 注：bp/bps=基点；pt/pts=百分点 中信证券财富管理 (香港) 免责声明请参考封底 2025 年 6 月 26 日 123 个 股 要 闻 ▪ 6 月 24 日，央行发布中期借贷便利招标公告称，为保持银行体系流动性充裕，6 月 25 日，中国人民银行将以 固定数 ...

环球市场动态 内 地 财 政 对 资 金 面 压 力 将 明 显 增 加 股 票 以色列伊朗停战，全球股市情绪大 幅反弹。A 股上涨，沪指重回 3400 店；港股全线上涨，权重的科技股、 金融股纷纷走高；欧洲交易时段尽 管以色列和伊朗双方都指责对方破 坏停火协议，但市场乐观情绪仍较 高推动强劲收涨；鲍威尔国会证词 提及降息，美股三大指数均涨超 1%，金龙中国指数涨 3%。 外 汇 / 商 品 以伊停火协议缓解供应担忧，并且 特朗普表示中国可以继续购买伊朗 石油，原油价格连续第二天重挫； 中东局势降温减弱避险需求，周二 国际金价下跌近 2%；美国消费者 信心弱于预期，鲍威尔降息前景发 出偏平衡的信号，美元指数下跌 0.6%至 97.86。 固 定 收 益 美国短期国债领涨；地缘政治局势 缓和；美国消费者信心意外下降； 鲍威尔重申观望立场，未排除 7 月 降息可能；两年期美债拍卖中标利 率略低于发行前水平，需求略显平 淡。亚洲债市情绪改善，中国投资 级债券利差收窄 1-3bp。 产品及投资方案部 注：bp/bps=基点；pt/pts=百分点 中信证券财富管理 (香港) 免责声明请参考封底 2025 年 6 月 2 ...

按一下此處編輯母版標題樣式 文件名 产品及投资方案部 ｜2025年6月23日 每周投资策略 中信証券財富管理 (香港) CITIC Securities Wealth Management (HK) 投资策略 每周投资策略 展望美股下半年震荡上行； Circle Internet； Robinhood ETF SPDR标普500指数ETF 债券 美国国债分析 (2) 澳大利亚市场焦点 预期RBA将维持今年每隔 一次会议降息的路径 股票 宽松周期释放 消费者购买力； 嘉民集团；澳洲航空 ETF iShares安硕MSCI 澳大利亚ETF (3) 韩国市场焦点 新总统新气象 上周环球 大类资产表现 (1) 美国市场焦点 核心商品价格在年中起 或更明显体现关税的提振 本周主要地区 经济数据公布日程 | | | | | | | 环球主要股票市场表现 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 指数 | | 收盘价* | 1周变动 | 1个月变动 | 3个月变动 | 1年变 ...

环球市场动态 美 国 介 入 中 东 冲 突 股 票 A 股周五继续走低，白酒股逆市反 弹；港股全日高位震荡止步三连跌， 大金融股涨幅突出；欧洲股市走势 分化，市场一度憧憬美国能够缓和 以伊冲突；美股涨跌不一，标指三 连跌，地缘政治打压市场情绪。 外 汇 / 商 品 美国参战令中东局势陡然升级，布 伦特原油期货周一亚洲早盘一度飙 升近 6%。 固 定 收 益 上周五美国短期国债领涨，收益率 曲线趋陡，美军周六突袭伊朗三处 关键核设施，市场聚焦中东局势。 日本削减长期国债发行量。亚洲债 市双向流动缓慢，利差变动不大。 中国投资级债券略微回稳。 产品及投资方案部 注：bp/bps=基点；pt/pts=百分点 中信证券财富管理 (香港) 免责声明请参考封底 | 欧美主要指数 | | | | | | | | 主要指数 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 收盘点位 | 1日涨跌 (%) | 125 | | | | 巴西圣保罗证交所指数 | | | | | 指数 | | ...

Market Overview - Global stock markets are underperforming due to ongoing tensions in the Middle East, with A-shares and Hong Kong stocks showing declines of 0.79% and 2.13% respectively[3][15]. - European markets are also weak, with the Eurozone Stoxx 600 index down 0.8% and major indices like the DAX and CAC 40 experiencing declines of 1.1% and 1.3% respectively[7][9]. U.S. Regulatory Changes - The U.S. is expected to relax the Supplementary Leverage Ratio (SLR) regulations, potentially increasing demand for U.S. Treasury bonds by approximately $200 billion, which is about one-ninth of the potential impact from the "Big Beautiful Act" [5]. - This regulatory change is anticipated to improve liquidity in the U.S. Treasury market but may not significantly lower long-term Treasury yields[5]. Commodity and Currency Movements - Oil prices have seen a slight increase, with Brent crude closing up nearly 3% at $78.85 per barrel, as market speculation about immediate U.S. military action against Iran has decreased[4][26]. - The U.S. dollar index remains stable at 98.91, with a year-to-date decline of 8.8%[27]. Asian Market Performance - The Asia-Pacific stock markets are predominantly down, with Thailand and Hong Kong indices dropping by 2.4% and 2.0% respectively, while Japan's Nikkei 225 fell by 1.0%[21][22]. - A-shares are also affected, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.79% and over 4,600 stocks declining across the market[15]. Individual Stock Highlights - Coinbase is projected to benefit from the upward trend in the cryptocurrency market, with expected trading volume reaching $1.162 trillion in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 149%[8]. - Chow Tai Fook's revenue is under pressure, but the company anticipates a recovery in FY2026, focusing on high-quality store openings and brand transformation[13].

Market Overview - A-shares experienced a slight increase, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.04% to 3,388 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index rose by 0.24% and 0.23% respectively[15] - The Hang Seng Index and its technology sector continued to perform poorly, with the Hang Seng Index dropping by 1.12% and the Hang Seng Tech Index falling by 1.46%[10] - European markets showed mixed results, with the DAX down 0.50% and the FTSE 100 up 0.11%[8] Economic Indicators - The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates at 4.25%-4.5%, with a projected two rate cuts in 2025, reflecting a cautious economic outlook[29] - The U.S. GDP growth forecast for this year was lowered to 1.4%, while inflation expectations were raised, with the PCE forecast set at 3.0%[29] Commodity Prices - International oil prices saw a slight increase, with WTI crude oil rising by 0.4% to $75.14 per barrel and Brent crude oil up by 0.3% to $76.70 per barrel[25] - Gold prices remained stable, reflecting ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East[25] Currency Movements - The U.S. Dollar Index increased by 0.1%, while the dollar appreciated slightly against the Chinese Yuan, trading at 7.189[24] - The Euro to Dollar exchange rate remained stable at 1.148, reflecting a 10.9% increase year-to-date[24] Sector Performance - In the U.S. stock market, 7 out of 11 sectors in the S&P 500 declined, with the energy sector dropping by 0.68%[8] - The technology sector showed resilience, with notable gains in AI-related stocks, indicating a potential rebound in core assets[8] Geopolitical Impact - Ongoing tensions in the Middle East, particularly between Iran and Israel, are causing market volatility and influencing commodity prices, especially oil[25] - Historical analysis indicates that if oil prices rise by over 50% due to conflict, it could trigger a recession in the U.S.[5]

环球市场动态 中 东 战 局 持 续 发 酵 中 美 关 系 延 续 稳 态 股 票 A 股周二下滑，脑机接口板块大爆 发；港股走弱，新消费、医药股大 幅下跌；欧股下挫，市场担忧美国 对以伊冲突的直接介入；美股三大 指数齐跌，华尔街担忧中东局势升 级，美国经济数据疲软业令市场承 压。 外 汇 / 商 品 中东局势升级重燃供应担忧，周二 国际油价升超 4%至近五个月高 点；金价震荡微跌，伦敦期铜走低； 美联储决策前夕美元上涨，英镑领 跌 G-10 货币。 固 定 收 益 美国国债上涨，中东局势升级提振 避险需求。美债收益率盘中短暂上 涨，收盘下跌，曲线趋平。亚洲债 券市场卖盘涌现。中国投资级债券 利差走宽 1-3 个基点。 产品及投资方案部 注：bp/bps=基点；pt/pts=百分点 中信证券财富管理 (香港) 免责声明请参考封底 2025 年 6 月 18 日 123 ▪ 我们判断，6 月下半月市场面临的外部地缘政治环境是：中美关系将延续稳态，关注中东地缘扰动。关于中美 关系，本次伦敦会谈更多用于解决双方面临的短期、急迫且可逆的问题，关税或并非会谈重点，但对市场而言， 日内瓦会谈以来的风险偏好缓和窗口或将延 ...