Market Overview - A-shares continued to decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.07% to 3,359 points, while the Shenzhen Component fell 0.47% and the ChiNext Index dropped 0.84%[14] - The Hang Seng Index rebounded, rising 1.26% to recover above 23,500 points, ending a three-day losing streak, supported by gains in large financial and technology stocks[10] - U.S. markets showed mixed results, with the Dow Jones up 0.08% to 42,206 points, while the S&P 500 fell 0.22% to 5,967 points, and the Nasdaq dropped 0.51% to 19,447 points[8] Geopolitical Impact - The U.S. military's strike on three key Iranian nuclear facilities has escalated tensions in the Middle East, leading to a near 6% spike in Brent crude oil futures[4] - Historical analysis indicates that geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East often lead to increased demand for safe-haven assets like gold, while oil prices are primarily driven by supply and demand dynamics[5] Commodity and Currency Trends - Brent crude oil prices are expected to remain volatile, with predictions of breaching $80 per barrel in the short term, depending on the escalation of conflicts and OPEC+ production levels[12] - The U.S. dollar index decreased by 0.2% to 98.71, while the euro appreciated by 0.2% against the dollar, trading at 1.152[23] Sector Performance - In the U.S., the energy sector led gains with a 1.05% increase, while the telecommunications sector fell by 1.83%[8] - In Hong Kong, the financial sector rose by 1.8%, while the energy sector declined by 0.6%[10] Investment Insights - Salesforce announced a price increase of 6% on several products starting August 1, 2025, driven by the integration of AI features, indicating strong market acceptance and potential revenue growth[7] - The Chinese investment-grade bond market showed slight stabilization, with minimal changes in yield spreads amid geopolitical uncertainties[28]

Market Overview - Global stock markets are underperforming due to ongoing tensions in the Middle East, with A-shares and Hong Kong stocks showing declines of 0.79% and 2.13% respectively[3][15]. - European markets are also weak, with the Eurozone Stoxx 600 index down 0.8% and major indices like the DAX and CAC 40 experiencing declines of 1.1% and 1.3% respectively[7][9]. U.S. Regulatory Changes - The U.S. is expected to relax the Supplementary Leverage Ratio (SLR) regulations, potentially increasing demand for U.S. Treasury bonds by approximately $200 billion, which is about one-ninth of the potential impact from the "Big Beautiful Act" [5]. - This regulatory change is anticipated to improve liquidity in the U.S. Treasury market but may not significantly lower long-term Treasury yields[5]. Commodity and Currency Movements - Oil prices have seen a slight increase, with Brent crude closing up nearly 3% at $78.85 per barrel, as market speculation about immediate U.S. military action against Iran has decreased[4][26]. - The U.S. dollar index remains stable at 98.91, with a year-to-date decline of 8.8%[27]. Asian Market Performance - The Asia-Pacific stock markets are predominantly down, with Thailand and Hong Kong indices dropping by 2.4% and 2.0% respectively, while Japan's Nikkei 225 fell by 1.0%[21][22]. - A-shares are also affected, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.79% and over 4,600 stocks declining across the market[15]. Individual Stock Highlights - Coinbase is projected to benefit from the upward trend in the cryptocurrency market, with expected trading volume reaching $1.162 trillion in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 149%[8]. - Chow Tai Fook's revenue is under pressure, but the company anticipates a recovery in FY2026, focusing on high-quality store openings and brand transformation[13].

Market Overview - A-shares experienced a slight increase, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.04% to 3,388 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index rose by 0.24% and 0.23% respectively[15] - The Hang Seng Index and its technology sector continued to perform poorly, with the Hang Seng Index dropping by 1.12% and the Hang Seng Tech Index falling by 1.46%[10] - European markets showed mixed results, with the DAX down 0.50% and the FTSE 100 up 0.11%[8] Economic Indicators - The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates at 4.25%-4.5%, with a projected two rate cuts in 2025, reflecting a cautious economic outlook[29] - The U.S. GDP growth forecast for this year was lowered to 1.4%, while inflation expectations were raised, with the PCE forecast set at 3.0%[29] Commodity Prices - International oil prices saw a slight increase, with WTI crude oil rising by 0.4% to $75.14 per barrel and Brent crude oil up by 0.3% to $76.70 per barrel[25] - Gold prices remained stable, reflecting ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East[25] Currency Movements - The U.S. Dollar Index increased by 0.1%, while the dollar appreciated slightly against the Chinese Yuan, trading at 7.189[24] - The Euro to Dollar exchange rate remained stable at 1.148, reflecting a 10.9% increase year-to-date[24] Sector Performance - In the U.S. stock market, 7 out of 11 sectors in the S&P 500 declined, with the energy sector dropping by 0.68%[8] - The technology sector showed resilience, with notable gains in AI-related stocks, indicating a potential rebound in core assets[8] Geopolitical Impact - Ongoing tensions in the Middle East, particularly between Iran and Israel, are causing market volatility and influencing commodity prices, especially oil[25] - Historical analysis indicates that if oil prices rise by over 50% due to conflict, it could trigger a recession in the U.S.[5]

环球市场动态 中 东 战 局 持 续 发 酵 中 美 关 系 延 续 稳 态 股 票 A 股周二下滑，脑机接口板块大爆 发；港股走弱，新消费、医药股大 幅下跌；欧股下挫，市场担忧美国 对以伊冲突的直接介入；美股三大 指数齐跌，华尔街担忧中东局势升 级，美国经济数据疲软业令市场承 压。 外 汇 / 商 品 中东局势升级重燃供应担忧，周二 国际油价升超 4%至近五个月高 点；金价震荡微跌，伦敦期铜走低； 美联储决策前夕美元上涨，英镑领 跌 G-10 货币。 固 定 收 益 美国国债上涨，中东局势升级提振 避险需求。美债收益率盘中短暂上 涨，收盘下跌，曲线趋平。亚洲债 券市场卖盘涌现。中国投资级债券 利差走宽 1-3 个基点。 产品及投资方案部 注：bp/bps=基点；pt/pts=百分点 中信证券财富管理 (香港) 免责声明请参考封底 2025 年 6 月 18 日 123 ▪ 我们判断，6 月下半月市场面临的外部地缘政治环境是：中美关系将延续稳态，关注中东地缘扰动。关于中美 关系，本次伦敦会谈更多用于解决双方面临的短期、急迫且可逆的问题，关税或并非会谈重点，但对市场而言， 日内瓦会谈以来的风险偏好缓和窗口或将延 ...

周一市场风险偏好回升，美国国债 收益率走高，曲线陡化。20 年期美 债拍卖表现稳健。亚洲债市流量较 轻，但市场情绪坚挺。中国投资级 债券表现不一，整体债券利差轻微 收窄。 产品及投资方案部 注：bp/bps=基点；pt/pts=百分点 中信证券财富管理 (香港) 免责声明请参考封底 2025 年 6 月 17 日 环球市场动态 二 季 度 内 地 经 济 有 望 延 续 较 快 增 长 股 票 中东紧张局势持续但市场担忧有所 降温，全球股市周一回暖。A 股港 股上涨，"稳定币"概念爆发，内房股 上扬；欧洲股市走高，收复前一日 跌幅；美股大幅反弹，科技股跑赢 大市，金龙中国指数上涨超 2%。 外 汇 / 商 品 据报伊朗寻求缓和与以色列的敌对 局势，周一国际油金价回落；日本 议息前夕日元领跌 G-10 货币。 固 定 收 益 123 ▪ 今年 5 月，内地工业和服务业生产保持较快增长，内需中消费有超预期表现，外需景气度受短期因素影响小幅 下降。从生产端来看，5 月工业增加值增速小幅回落，主要是中美谈判缓和促使工业生产在 5 月下旬显著改善。 从需求侧来看，"618 购物节" 叠加消费品以旧换新政策带动下 5 月 ...

中信証券財富管理 (香港) CITIC Securities Wealth Management (HK) 投资策略 每周投资策略 按一下此處編輯母版標題樣式 文件名 产品及投资方案部 ｜2025年6月16日 每周投资策略 上周环球 大类资产表现 (1) 日本市场焦点 预计央行只会边际性 收紧货币政策 公司治理革命加上 关税压力最大时点已过； 京瓷 ；JR东日本 ETF iShares JPX-日经 400指数ETF (2) 印尼市场焦点 财政压力将 继续困扰经济 股票 等待市场情绪进一步回暖 ETF iShares MSCI印尼ETF (3) 菲律宾市场焦点 经济放缓及通胀温和 支持再降息 股票 PCOMP指数估值低； BDO金融银行； 菲律宾群岛银行 ETF iShares MSCI菲律宾ETF 资料来源：中信证券财富管理 (香港) 上周环球 债市表现 中东局势带来扰动，美联储会议在即 | | | | | 上周环球债市表现 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 当前 | 收 ...

Market Overview - The escalation of the Middle East situation has led to significant global market volatility, with A-shares dropping 0.75% to 3,377 points, and the Hang Seng Index falling 0.59% below 24,000 points[3][15]. - Major European indices experienced notable declines, with the DAX down 1.07% to 23,516.23 points and the FTSE 100 down 0.39% to 8,850.63 points[9][11]. Commodity and Currency Movements - Oil prices surged, with NYMEX crude oil futures rising 7.3% to $72.98 per barrel, marking the largest increase in over three years[4][27]. - Gold prices also increased by over 1.5%, reflecting heightened demand for safe-haven assets amid geopolitical tensions[4][27]. Fixed Income Market - U.S. Treasury yields fluctuated, with the 10-year yield rising by over 4 basis points to 4.40%, driven by inflation concerns due to rising oil prices[5][30]. - In Asia, investment-grade bond spreads widened by 2-3 basis points, indicating increased risk perception in the market[5][30]. Sector Performance - The energy sector outperformed, with oil and gas stocks benefiting from rising oil prices, while financials led the decline, dropping 2.06%[9][11]. - In the A-share market, military and aerospace sectors showed strength, while consumer sectors faced significant pullbacks[15][16]. Investor Sentiment - The VIX index, a measure of market volatility, surged over 15% to 20.82, indicating increased investor anxiety and risk aversion[9][11]. - The overall market sentiment remains cautious, with investors closely monitoring the developments in the Middle East and their potential impact on global economic stability[6][9].

固 定 收 益 周四美国国债大涨，PPI 数据不及 预期，强劲的 30 年期国债标售，和 中东地区的地缘紧张局势，推动美 国国债上涨。亚洲债券市场呈现双 向交投，卖盘压力至债券利差走宽 2-3 个基点。 环球市场动态 全 球 贸 易 形 势 日 趋 复 杂 股 票 A 股周四小幅震荡，酒类板块低迷； 港股受全球市场情绪影响表现不 佳，医药板块继续获抱团；欧洲股 市表现疲软，中东局势升温令市场 担忧；美股小幅收高，PPI 数据低 于预期得到市场积极反映，金龙中 国指数下跌。 外 汇 / 商 品 以色列袭击伊朗，其官员证实袭击 目标是伊朗核设施，中东紧张局势 升温，今早亚洲时段原油期货曾大 涨超 8%、现货金涨超 1%、美元指 数微涨。 产品及投资方案部 注：bp/bps=基点；pt/pts=百分点 中信证券财富管理 (香港) 免责声明请参考封底 2025 年 6 月 13 日 123 ▪ 在全球贸易形势日趋复杂的背景下，出口企业商业模式在贸易规则制约下不断调整，理解贸易制度成为投资判 断的重要前提。从权力划分来看，美国贸易政策体系涵盖立法、执行与监督三个环节，总统在贸易政策上拥有 较大的裁量权。从执行体系来看， ...

Market Overview - The US and China have made progress in trade negotiations, leading to a strong performance in the Chinese market, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.52% and the Shenzhen Component Index increasing by 0.83%[3][15] - The US May CPI was lower than expected, contributing to a slight decline in US stocks after reaching a three-month high earlier in the day, with the Dow Jones remaining flat and the Nasdaq down by 0.5%[3][9] Commodity and Currency Insights - International crude oil prices surged, with WTI crude rising by $3.17 to $68.15 per barrel, marking the highest level since April 2, 2025[24] - Gold prices increased due to lower-than-expected US inflation data, which strengthened bets on a potential rate cut by the Federal Reserve[24] Fixed Income Market - US Treasury yields fell following the lower-than-expected CPI data, with the 10-year yield dropping to 4.42%[28] - Asian bond markets remained robust, with investment-grade bond spreads in China narrowing by 2-4 basis points, driven by demand for major companies like Alibaba and Tencent[28] Policy and Economic Measures - A new policy financial tool has been reintroduced with a scale of 500 billion yuan, aimed at accelerating investment projects in traditional infrastructure and emerging technologies[6] - The Chinese government is expected to expedite local bond issuance, particularly for projects supported by special government bonds, providing strong support for economic growth in the second half of the year[6] Stock Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index rose by 0.84% and 1.12%, respectively, reaching new highs since early April, driven by optimism from trade talks[11] - In the US, large tech stocks mostly declined, while nuclear power stocks surged following a contract announcement by Oklo[9]

2025 年 6 月 11 日 环球市场动态 内 地 一 揽 子 民 生 保 障 落 地 股 票 A 股港股周二午后突然跳水齐转 跌，但创新药板块延续强势，市场 谨慎观望中美谈判进展；欧洲股市 表现分化，市场观望情绪浓厚；美 股再涨逼近历史高点，美谈判代表 在伦敦会谈后表示谈判结果良好推 动情绪向好，金龙中国指数上涨。 外 汇 / 商 品 交易员等待美国将公布的 5 月 CPI 数据，市场等待美中贸易会谈的结 果，周二美元指数微涨，国际金价 及油价小幅走低。 固 定 收 益 周二美国国债小幅波动，收益率曲 线略微趋平，市场对 3 年期美债拍 卖反应平淡，等待将在周三公布的 5 月 CPI 数据以及 10 年期国债标 售。亚洲债市活跃，利差收窄 2-10 个基点，韩国债券表现突出。 产品及投资方案部 注：bp/bps=基点；pt/pts=百分点 中信证券财富管理 (香港) 免责声明请参考封底 123 ▪ 2025 年 6 月 9 日，中办、国办发布《关于进一步保障和改善民生 着力解决群众急难愁盼的意见》；次日，国 家发改委、教育部等六部门在发布会上介绍了相关政策情况。总体而言，本次政策部署贯彻了今年 "民生为大 ...