Market Overview - The mainland's export growth in May decreased by 3.3 percentage points to 4.8%, slightly below market expectations due to a decline in April orders and high base effects from last year[5] - The U.S. stock market showed mixed results, with the Dow Jones down 0.0%, S&P 500 up 0.1%, and Nasdaq up 0.3% as investors await updates from U.S.-China trade talks[7] - The Hang Seng Index rose 1.63%, entering a technical bull market, with a 21% increase since April's low[10] Trade and Economic Indicators - The U.S. dollar index fell slightly, following a decrease in U.S. Treasury yields, while international oil prices continued to rise, with NY crude oil up 1.1% to $65.29 per barrel[23] - The consumer inflation expectations in the U.S. improved in May, indicating a potential easing of inflationary pressures[5] - The Asian bond market showed stability, with spreads narrowing by 2-5 basis points, driven by improved risk sentiment[27] Sector Performance - In the A-share market, healthcare stocks led the gains, with some innovative drug stocks hitting the 20% limit up[14] - The automotive sector is undergoing rapid consolidation, with electric vehicle sales growth expected to slow significantly from a 60% CAGR to 10% by 2030[12] - The technology sector in Hong Kong saw significant gains, with the Hang Seng Tech Index rising 2.78%[10] Key Developments - The U.S. is considering relaxing some export controls in exchange for China's easing of rare earth transport restrictions during ongoing trade negotiations[5] - The New York Fed's survey indicated a comprehensive improvement in consumer inflation expectations for May, suggesting a shift in market sentiment[5] - The automotive industry is expected to face a prolonged price war, impacting stock performance in the short term but potentially leading to a clearing of excess capacity by 2026[12]

Group 1: Hong Kong and Mainland Market Focus - The growth rate of social financing in Mainland China is expected to peak around mid-2025, driven by government bond issuance and low base effects from last year [13][15]. - Chinese equity assets are entering an annual bull market, with a focus on the core asset pool of 50 stocks in the Hong Kong-Shanghai-Shenzhen market [16][21]. - The iShares MSCI China ETF is highlighted as a key investment vehicle for international investors looking to access large and mid-cap Chinese stocks [23]. Group 2: UK Market Focus - The UK economy is expected to slow down, with GDP growth in Q2 likely to be weaker due to various economic indicators showing a gloomy outlook [32][36]. - The labor market is cooling, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.5% and wage growth slowing, indicating potential demand weakness in the coming months [32][41]. - The iShares MSCI UK ETF is noted for tracking the performance of large and mid-cap companies in the UK, providing exposure to the UK market [42]. Group 3: Stablecoin Theme - Global regulatory efforts are accelerating, with the U.S. and Hong Kong advancing legislation on stablecoins, which could enhance their role in cross-border payments [48][51]. - Stablecoins are seen as a programmable digital currency that can bridge the gap between fiat and cryptocurrencies, enhancing market liquidity [48][51]. - The advantages of compliant stablecoin systems over traditional SWIFT systems are highlighted, particularly in terms of efficiency and transparency in cross-border transactions [51][52].

Economic Indicators - In May 2025, the U.S. added 139,000 non-farm jobs, exceeding the forecast of 126,000, while the unemployment rate remained stable at 4.2%[6] - The job vacancy rate has returned to pre-pandemic levels, indicating limited "buffer" for the labor market, which may lead to a faster increase in the unemployment rate[6] Market Reactions - U.S. stock markets surged, with the Dow Jones rising 443 points (1.05%) to close at 42,762 points, and the S&P 500 gaining 1.03% to 6,000 points, following positive employment data[10] - The European stock markets experienced slight gains, supported by the U.S. employment growth and an upward revision of the Eurozone's Q1 GDP to 0.6%[10] Currency and Commodity Trends - The U.S. dollar strengthened against major currencies, with the dollar index rising by 0.5%[28] - International oil prices increased, with NY crude oil up 1.9% to $64.58 per barrel, as concerns about demand suppression eased[28] Fixed Income Market - Following the employment data, U.S. Treasury yields rose by 9-13 basis points, indicating a sell-off in the bond market[5] - The 2-year Treasury yield increased to 4.03%, while the 10-year yield rose to 4.51%[31] Asian Market Performance - The A-share market showed mixed results, with the Shanghai Composite Index slightly up by 0.04% to 3,385 points, while the Shenzhen Component fell by 0.19%[17] - The Hong Kong market experienced declines, with the Hang Seng Index down 0.48% and the Hang Seng Tech Index dropping 0.63%[12] Sector Performance - In the U.S., all 11 sectors of the S&P 500 rose, with the energy sector leading gains, up nearly 2% due to improved oil demand outlook[10] - In Hong Kong, the materials sector gained 2.3%, while the information technology sector fell by 1.8%[13]

Market Overview - The US appeals court reinstated tariffs imposed by Trump, leading to a cautious global market sentiment[3] - A-shares experienced volatility and weakened overall, while Hong Kong stocks were soft with major tech stocks declining[3] - European markets showed optimism ahead of a potential interest rate cut by the ECB, despite tariff concerns[3] Economic Indicators - China's manufacturing PMI for May was 49.5, up 0.5 from the previous month, indicating a slight recovery in manufacturing activity[6] - The non-manufacturing PMI for China decreased to 50.3, down 0.1 from the previous month, showing limited elasticity to tariff changes[6] - The US personal consumption expenditure (PCE) data showed a significant slowdown in consumer spending growth in April[6] Stock Market Performance - The Dow Jones closed at 42,270.1, up 0.1%, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq saw minor declines of 0.0% and 0.3% respectively[8] - In Latin America, the S&P Mexico IPC index fell by 1.3%, and the Brazilian IBOVESPA index decreased by 1.1%[9] Sector Performance - In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng Index dropped by 1.2%, with the Hang Seng Tech Index declining by 2.48%[11] - The healthcare sector in Hong Kong showed resilience, with some biotech stocks performing strongly despite overall market weakness[11] Fixed Income Market - The US Treasury yield curve steepened, with the 2-year yield at 3.90% and the 10-year yield at 4.40%[26] - Asian bond markets were generally weak, with investment-grade bond spreads widening by 2-6 basis points[26] Commodity Prices - International oil prices rose over 2% amid escalating tensions between Russia and Ukraine[22] - The Bloomberg Commodity Index showed a slight decline of 0.9% over the past day[21] Currency Movements - The US dollar index was at 99.33, reflecting a 0.1% increase, while the dollar's value against the Chinese yuan was 7.199, down 0.2%[21] - The euro appreciated against the dollar, trading at 1.135, a decrease of 0.2%[21]

Market Overview - A-shares experienced a five-day decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3,339 points, down 0.02%[19] - The Hang Seng Index fell 0.53% to 23,258 points, while the KOSPI in South Korea rose 1.2% to 2,670 points[24] - U.S. markets saw all three major indices decline, with the Dow Jones down 0.58% at 42,098.7 points and the S&P 500 down 0.56% at 5,888.6 points[12][8] Economic Indicators - Global economic growth is expected to continue its downward trend in the second half of 2025, with inflation becoming a key variable due to tariffs potentially causing a rebound in U.S. CPI[6] - The Federal Reserve is anticipated to lower interest rates no more than twice this year, with a possible cut in September[6] Commodity and Currency Trends - Oil prices rebounded over 1%, with WTI crude oil rising to $61.84 per barrel and Brent crude to $64.90 per barrel[30] - The U.S. dollar index increased by 0.4%, while gold prices slightly declined, reflecting a cautious market sentiment[30][29] Corporate Earnings - NVIDIA reported Q1 revenue of $44.1 billion, exceeding expectations and showing a 69% year-over-year increase, with data center revenue up 73%[10] - Baidu's cloud business showed strong growth, although its online advertising faced challenges during the AI transition[10] Investment Recommendations - Investors are advised to focus on trading opportunities across various asset classes amid high volatility, with a preference for gold over copper and oil[6] - The technology sector, particularly companies involved in AI, is expected to be a key investment theme in the latter half of 2025[17]

Market Overview - A-shares continued to decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.18% to 3,340 points, marking a four-day losing streak[18] - U.S. markets rebounded significantly after a holiday, with the Dow Jones up 740 points (1.78%) and the S&P 500 rising 2.05%[11] - European markets also saw gains, with the Stoxx 600 index increasing by 0.37% amid positive economic data and trade negotiations[11] Economic Outlook - China's GDP is projected to grow by 5% in 2025, driven by fiscal expansion focused on consumption recovery and infrastructure investment[7] - The U.S. consumer confidence index saw its largest increase in four years, indicating a potential boost in economic activity[7] - The European Central Bank anticipates inflation to hover around 2% for the year, influenced by U.S. tariff impacts[7] Commodity and Currency Trends - International crude oil prices fell by 1% due to OPEC+ production expectations, with WTI at $60.89 per barrel[30] - Gold prices dropped by 1.9% to $3,300.4 per ounce, influenced by a stronger dollar and reduced safe-haven demand[30] - The U.S. dollar index increased by 0.6%, while the euro and pound both saw slight declines against the dollar[28] Investment Strategies - For the second half of 2025, focus on sectors with strong growth potential, such as technology and healthcare, particularly those benefiting from AI advancements[10] - Emphasis on high-dividend yielding assets in utilities and financial sectors as stable investment options[16] - The strategy includes a shift towards core assets and emerging industries, anticipating a bull market in Chinese equities starting in Q4 2025[21]

环球市场动态 若美国关税提升对欧盟的影响 股 票 周一 A 股小幅下跌，大盘继续板块 轮动；港股走弱，大型科技股表现 疲软，汽车股因价格战影响表现低 迷；欧洲股市周一表现亮眼，特朗 普推迟对欧盟征收关税带来积极反 映；美股周一因阵亡将士纪念日休 市。 外 汇 / 商 品 市场权衡贸易紧张局势有所缓解以 及 OPEC+增产前景，布伦特原油 期货基本持平。 固 定 收 益 周一英美金融市场因假期休市。亚 洲债市交投静淡，整体情绪坚挺， 债券利差收窄 1-2 个基点。日本今 天拍卖 40 年期国债。中国人民银 行采取行动，增加流动性投放，谨 防中国债市出现日本和美国市场那 样的暴跌。 产品及投资方案部 注：bp/bps=基点；pt/pts=百分点 中信证券财富管理 (香港) 免责声明请参考封底 2025 年 5 月 27 日 123 中 ▪ 美国总统特朗普 5 月 23 日威胁对欧盟关税提升至 50%，随后在美欧对话后特朗普 5 月 25 日表示将欧盟关税 截至期限延至 7 月 9 日。若关税威胁最终落地，考虑到美国是欧盟最大最主要的出口国家，额外 50%关税预 计会对欧盟经济以及欧盟制造业造成较大冲击，尤其是德国 ...

Market Overview - The US stock market experienced declines ahead of the Memorial Day holiday, with the Dow Jones falling 256 points or 0.61% to close at 41,603 points, marking four consecutive days of losses[10] - European markets also weakened, with the Stoxx 600 index dropping 0.93% due to renewed trade tensions following Trump's tariff threats against the EU[10] Currency and Commodities - The US dollar index decreased by 0.8%, reflecting an 8.6% decline year-to-date, while gold prices rose by 2.1% to $3,394.50 per ounce amid increased safe-haven demand[27][28] - Oil prices saw a slight increase, with NY crude oil rising 0.5% to $61.53 per barrel, as market confidence in a potential US-Iran nuclear deal weakened[28] Fixed Income - US Treasury yields fell significantly, with the 10-year yield dropping to 4.51%, a decrease of 1.8 basis points, as investors sought safety amid escalating trade tensions[32] - Asian investment-grade bonds remained strong, with Chinese investment-grade bond spreads narrowing by 2-5 basis points, driven by demand from major companies like Alibaba and Tencent[32] Sector Performance - In the Chinese A-share market, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.94% to 3,348 points, with over 4,200 stocks declining, while the healthcare sector showed resilience[16] - The Hong Kong market displayed mixed results, with the Hang Seng Index rising 0.24% and healthcare stocks leading gains, while technology stocks faced pressure[12] Key Corporate Developments - Trump's threats of a 50% tariff on EU imports and pressure on Apple to shift production to the US contributed to market volatility, impacting major tech stocks like Apple, which fell 3.02%[10][12] - Xpeng Motors' new MONA series is expected to significantly boost sales, with projections of 600,000 units contributing to a 10% market share in the 100,000-150,000 RMB price range[8]

Market Overview - A-shares and Hong Kong stocks collectively declined on Thursday, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.22% to 3,380 points, and the Hang Seng Index down 1.19%[16] - European markets closed lower due to concerns over the U.S. fiscal outlook, with the Stoxx 600 index down 0.64%[9] - U.S. stock indices showed mixed results, with the Dow Jones down slightly by 1 point, while the Nasdaq rose 0.28% to 18,925.7 points[9] Fixed Income - Long-term U.S. Treasury yields have risen sharply, with the 30-year yield reaching a 19-month high of 5.15%[9] - The U.S. House of Representatives narrowly passed a tax and spending bill, raising concerns about increasing fiscal deficits, which pressured long-term bonds[30] - Asian investment-grade bonds performed well, with spreads narrowing by 2-4 basis points, driven by strong demand for high-rated and sovereign bonds[30] Commodities and Forex - Oil prices fell to near two-week lows, with WTI crude down 0.6% to $61.2 per barrel, amid OPEC+ discussions to increase production significantly[27] - The U.S. dollar index rebounded, with G-10 currencies generally declining against the dollar, except for the Canadian dollar[27] - Gold prices retreated, with New York gold down 0.56% to $3,295.0 per ounce[27] Economic Indicators - Recent U.S. economic data showed mixed signals, with initial jobless claims rising and existing home sales unexpectedly dropping to a seven-month low[30] - The U.S. manufacturing PMI improved to 52.3 in May, indicating a slight expansion in the manufacturing sector[30] Corporate Highlights - Google announced significant upgrades to its AI models and plans to launch smart glasses in 2026, reflecting its ongoing innovation in AI infrastructure[8] - Xiaomi launched its self-developed SoC, showcasing advancements in technology and potential future growth in the smartphone and IoT sectors[14]

Economic Outlook - India's GDP is projected to grow by 7.0% in Q4 FY2025, down from 8.4% in Q4 FY2024 and below the National Statistical Office's forecast of 7.6%[6] - The Goods and Services Tax (GST) revenue is expected to increase by 10.7% year-on-year, indicating a nominal GDP growth of approximately 10.5%[6] Market Performance - Chinese markets saw a second consecutive day of gains, with Ningde Times (300750 CH/3750 HK) leading the rise[3] - U.S. stock markets faced sell-offs, with the Dow Jones down 1.91% to 41,860.4 points, and the S&P 500 down 1.61% to 5,844.6 points due to concerns over fiscal deficits[9] Fixed Income Trends - U.S. Treasury yields rose above 5% for 30-year bonds, driven by concerns over fiscal policy uncertainty and weak demand in a recent 20-year bond auction[5][30] - Asian bond markets showed strength, with spreads narrowing by 2-3 basis points[5] Commodity Movements - International crude oil prices fell over 1% due to rising U.S. inventories, with NY crude oil at $61.57 per barrel[27] - Gold prices increased for the third consecutive day, reaching $3,313.5 per ounce amid a weakening dollar[27] Stock Highlights - Netease (NTES US) reported better-than-expected performance in Q1 2025, with revenue and profit exceeding market expectations[9] - Meituan (3690 HK) is expected to see a 17% revenue growth in Q1 2025, driven by strong performance in its core local business[14]