CITI Com 公路、铁路行业研究方法 中信证券研究部 公路、铁路行业高级分析师 邱颖 主要内容 ▪ 公路行业研究方法 ▪ 公司分析 ▪ 估值方法与投资逻辑 ▪ 公路行业 ▪ 上市公司 ▪ 铁路行业研究方法 ▪铁路行业 ▪ 铁路上市公司 CITI GG 收费公路公司分析：年流量与通行费收入 线路通行费收入 = ∑ OD ij × R ij × L ij + ∑ 货车计重收费 OD为不同车型的车流量（辆/年） R为不同车型的收费标准（元/辆公里，元/车次） L为收费公路里程（公里） i、j为不同收费站进出口 公路公司的通行费收入为各条线路的收入之和。 对具体一段线路而言，L和R基本是固定的，变量是车流量，以及货车的计重收费。 一般线路上的客车货车车流量比例为6: 4，贡献的收入为4: 6。 CITI GO 公司分析：车型划分 ▪ 划分车型的主要目的就是保证通行费征收的相对合理性，车型分类的基本原则是：公平合理性 和简单明确性。 ▪ 我国至今为止大多数的收费公路是以车辆的额定载重为依据进行分类的，各省的分类标准不尽 相同。为了规范全国机动车车型分类，解决各省、自治区、直辖市由于车型分类不统一带来的 车辆通行费标 ...

1.1 量化投资的思想就在你身边 目录 量化投资研究方法 n 量化投资研究的定位 金融工程首席分析师 2 n 量化投资：仓位与情绪监控 n 量化投资：行业配置与行业轮动 n 量化投资：大小盘风格轮动监测 n 量化投资：驱动因子及量化选股 n 量化投资：事件驱动交易 胡浩 n 量化投资强调纪律性、系统性和大概率事件 n 打个比方，漏斗Vs.筷子 ( * (1 )* ) s b Var a r a r 大类资产配置 行业轮动 风格轮动 量化选股策略 … 交易策略 资产配置 交易执行 风险管理 事件驱动 相对价值 中性策略 多空策略 高频交易 … 一级资产 行业配置 组合模拟 组合构建 组合优化 … 程序化交易 … 市场风险 组合风险 风险预警 … 量化投资的思想无处不在 量化策略 3 1.2 定位：一张复杂的图表 卖方 买方 横向数据整合平台 数量金融软件 数量化投 资 金融衍生品 数量选股策略 交易策略 投资组合产品 数量金融软件产品 金融工程产品 数量选股策略 数量金融软件产品 金融 工程 股票池/组合建议 投资决策委员会 投资组合产品 客户（投资者） 买方 机构 宏观 数据 行业 数据 公司 数据 市场 数 ...

CITI Com 钢铁行业研究方法 中信证券研究部 周希增 目的 ■ 理解钢铁行业 ▪指导投资工作 ▪ 挖掘优质公司 CITIGE 2 目录 ▪产品分析─钢铁是怎样炼成的？ ▪ 经济分析—企业的盈利变化 ▪ 投资分析—周期的把握与应对 CITI & G 3 行业基础 ▪钢铁行业的基本流程 ▪铁矿石 ▪ 焦炭 ▪中国在世界钢铁中的地位 CITIGG 4 主要钢铁生产工艺流程 票 化 樂 翁 茶 織 區 MANA n in 1994 矿石采选 流 海 海 > 焦炉 単篇 炼焦煤 人造块矿 铁矿石 AAAA 781181181181181181181 转炉 181181181181181 高炉 电炉 连铸机 年 机 烧结机 废钢 铁合金 钢材产品 CITI GG 5 市场 钢 主要产品 炼 铁 钢 连 铸 # 炼 网 时 网板# e 型钢轨品 30 球団 焦炭 环材 A 488 10: 60.11 铁矿 日 烧给好 石灰石 棒 然材料 中原板 o 中原板礼品 自腹 IDR 铁水 小方猛 热轧板卷或落板 2018年0 热轧板卷礼制 每 气转炉 (BOF) = 龙方坯 - o filler 冷轧板卷成薄板 A A 冷连 ...

CITI CORR 计算机行业研究方法 中信证券研究部 张新峰 目 录 ▪ 计算机行业概况 ▪下游行业需求分析 ▪ 公司研究与估值方法 ▪ 投资建议 CITI & G 2 行业概况：产品特点 ▪ 软件产品规模特点 > 固定成本较高：绝大部分为沉没成本 > 可变成本较低：复制/盗版的边际成本接近零 > 规模经济效应突出：网络效应 > 路径依赖较强：更换成本较高 > 无形: 用户体验、价值认同、定价难度 ▪ IT服务特点 > 固定成本较低、可变成本较高、规模效应不突出 ▷ 路径依赖、无形 ■竞争的核心 > 满足用户需求、提升用户体验 → 为用户创造价值 CITI GO 3 行业概况：企业分类 ▪ 计算机硬件 > PC及服务器设备 (PC、服务器、外设) > 专用计算机设备 (如ATM、税控收款机、电纸书、RFID等) ▪ 计算机软件 基础 > 基础软件及套装软件（操作系统、数据库、ERP等） > 行业应用软件（金融、电信、政府、电力等行业软件） 套裝 软件 . IT服务 > 外包服务（离岸/在岸软件外包、BPO、非核心业务外包等） > 系统集成 定制软件 IT服务 ▪ 国内内上市公司以软件和IT服务为主 CITI ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the home appliance industry Core Insights - The home appliance industry is closely linked to the increase in consumer spending and improvements in living standards [14] - The industry is characterized by strong competition, leading to the exit of inefficient capacities and a trend towards consolidation [18][25] - The industry is in a mature phase internationally, while domestically it is transitioning from growth to maturity due to low penetration rates, especially in rural markets [23] Industry Overview - The home appliance sector includes major appliances (e.g., refrigerators, air conditioners, washing machines) and small appliances (e.g., vacuum cleaners, coffee makers) [3] - Major appliances exhibit strong homogeneity, while small appliances and consumer electronics show significant differentiation [3] - The cost structure of major appliances includes components such as compressors, motors, and various materials, with labor and depreciation being significant cost factors [6][8][9][10] Key Drivers - Technological upgrades are driving consumer upgrades, with innovations in energy efficiency and product features [15] - The demand for high-end appliances has been increasing since 2009, indicating a shift in consumer preferences [20] - The penetration rates of various appliances in rural areas are significantly lower compared to urban areas, suggesting growth potential [19] Competitive Landscape - Domestic companies face competition from international brands, with a notable presence of companies like Samsung, LG, and Panasonic [26][27][28] - The industry is experiencing a shift towards energy-efficient and environmentally friendly products, which is driving further consolidation among leading firms [27] - The small appliance market is characterized by low penetration rates, presenting substantial growth opportunities [30] Research Methodology and Stock Selection - The report emphasizes the importance of understanding the industry lifecycle and competitive dynamics when selecting stocks [23] - Key factors for stock selection include the company's core competitiveness, market demand outlook, and the competitive landscape within the industry [38] - The report suggests that investment opportunities may arise from discrepancies between market valuations and the company's performance outlook [40]

CITI CORR 基础化工行业研究方法 中信证券研究部 刘旭明 自我介绍- — 刘 / 885 >中信证券研究部基础化工行业首席分析师。 >清华大学化学学士、经济学学士、经济学硕士。 >2003–2004, 申银万国证券研究所；2004年至今, 中信证券。 >2006、2007、2008年《新财富》最佳分析师"基础化工"行业第 一名。2009年《新财富》最佳分析师"基础化工"行业第四名。 ▷电 话：010-84588908 ▷手 机：13911628015 ▷Email: lxm@citics.com CITICSE 2 目录 ✓行业概览 ✓基础化工行业上市公司分类 ✓化工产品产业链 ✓基础化工行业提供超额收益机会 ✓研究分析的8个关键点 CITI SE 3 上市公司构成：行业代表档差，行业分类难，板块数应差 下游需求角度；农资板块占39%；纺织上游原料占20%，近一半纯碱用于玻璃；氯 碱和有机硅应用较为分散 ▪ 上游原料：煤（电）、化学矿、石油化工产品 ▪ 中信证券化工分类更加详尽，适合做指数比较，将在WIND上提供给大家，欢迎批 评指证 □ 钾肥□ 氮肥口 化学农药□ 涤纶■ 粘胶□ 委 绝 口 聚氨酯 ...

CITI CONT 航空机场行业研究方法 中信证券研究部 首席分析师 马晓立 高级分析师 曾旭 中信证券分析师简介- 航空机场宁亚研究员 马晓立 : ▪ 中信证券交通运输行业首席分析师。 ▪ 浙江大学经济学硕士。2006年2月加盟中信证券研究部。2001年3月- 2006年2月，联合证券研究所交通运输行业分析师； ▪ 《新财富》2005-2007年最佳分析师"航空机场"行业第一名 ▪ 《新财富》2008-2009年最佳分析师"交通运输"行业第一名。 ▪曾旭 ▪ 中信证券研究部航空机场行业高级分析师。 ▪ 美国城市大学工商管理硕士MBA，中国民航大学管理学院客座教授，东方 航空公司服务质量督察。 ▪ 7年民航业和上市航空公司从业背景。2009年加盟中信证券研究部。 2008 年3月-2009年6月国金证券研究所交通运输行业分析师 ▪ 《新财富》2009年最佳分析师"交通运输"行业第一名。 《新财富》2009年最佳分析师"交通运输"行业第五名〈私募和资管投票〉 ■ 2 目录 ▪ 行业概况 ▪ 行业重要分析指标 ▪ 收入与成本构成 ▪ 定价 ▪ 研究方法与投资逻辑 ▪ 估值方法 CITI GG 3 行业教师 产品特 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the automotive industry Core Insights - The automotive industry in China has experienced significant growth, with sales increasing from 1.8 million units in 1999 to 13.64 million units in 2009, representing a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 20% [20] - China has become the largest automotive market globally, surpassing the United States in 2009 [22][23] - The demand for automobiles is expected to maintain a steady growth rate, with projections of 16.9 million units sold in 2010, reflecting a 24% increase from 2009 [44] Industry Overview - The automotive industry is divided into several sub-sectors: passenger vehicles, commercial vehicles, and automotive parts [4][10] - Passenger vehicles include sedans, SUVs, and MPVs, while commercial vehicles encompass buses and trucks [6][9] - The market share of domestic brands is increasing, particularly in the commercial vehicle sector, where they dominate due to cost advantages [13][14] Sales and Market Trends - In 2009, the sales of passenger cars reached 7.47 million units, with a notable increase in the sales of SUVs and MPVs [5][44] - The report highlights that the sales of heavy trucks and large buses are expected to grow significantly, driven by economic recovery and increased infrastructure projects [46][47] - The demand for mid-to-high-end vehicles is closely linked to economic indicators such as stock and real estate markets [75] Consumer Demand Factors - Key factors influencing consumer demand include purchasing power, willingness to buy, and macroeconomic expectations [24][25] - The report indicates that the average car ownership in China is significantly lower than in developed countries, suggesting room for growth [27] Competitive Landscape - The competitive landscape is characterized by a mix of domestic and international players, with major companies listed on both A-share and H-share markets [16][17] - The report notes that the automotive industry is undergoing structural changes, with increasing collaboration between manufacturers and suppliers, especially in the electric vehicle sector [50] Financial Performance - The profitability of the automotive industry is expected to remain strong, with return on equity (ROE) levels slightly above international averages [69] - The report emphasizes that the cost structure, including raw material prices and production efficiency, plays a crucial role in determining profitability [60][66] Future Outlook - The automotive industry is projected to transition from rapid growth to stable growth, with expected sales growth rates of 10-15% over the next 3-5 years [43] - The report anticipates that demand in second- and third-tier cities will outpace national averages due to lower ownership rates and rising consumer purchasing power [43][79]

CITI ( 医药停业研究方法 中信证券研究部 姚杰 目 录 一。行业 （一）整个行业发展趋势 (二) 各子行业发展趋势 （三）行业政策对行业影响分析 二．投资 （一）公司 （二）投资 CITI GG 2 目录 一。行业 （一）整个行业发展趋势 1．全球医药行业．放缓，转移，并购 2. 中国医药行业。发展，提高，整合，国际化 3. 中国与海外医药行业发展对比 CITI GOO 3 1、全球医药行业：放缓，转移，并购 CITIGE 4 全球兵药行业：放缓，转移，排购 ▪ 全球医药行业增速放缓。 2009年，8370亿美元，7% 900 1 14 800 700 600 500 400 8 300 200 6 100 0 2006 2008 1995 1996 1998 1999 2002 2003 2004 2005 2009 1997 2000 2001 2007 市场规模（十亿美元） ◆一增长率（%） 12 10 全球药品市场规模与增速 2002～2009年全球药品市场销售额 按恒定汇率计算 銷售额(亿美元, 年份 的年增长率(%) 按恒定汇率计算) 2002 5150 9.1 2003 5620 9.1 ...

Macroeconomic Indicators - GDP growth is measured through production, expenditure, and income methods, with components including household consumption (C), investment (I), government consumption (G), and net exports (NX)[10] - CPI (Consumer Price Index) and PPI (Producer Price Index) are key indicators for inflation, with CPI being a primary tool for monetary policy observation[11] - Monetary policy indicators include MO, M1, and M2, with M2 reflecting overall social demand and future inflation pressure[12] Investment and Consumption - Credit growth leads investment growth by approximately 1 quarter, with central government investments driving local investments in the current cycle[21][22] - Consumer confidence and employment are leading indicators for consumption growth, with retail sales and income levels being key metrics[25][27] - Investment growth is influenced by factors such as credit growth, interest rates, and export performance[24] Export and Inflation - Export growth is influenced by global economic conditions, RMB exchange rates, and export tax rebates, with OECD leading indicators and PMI new export orders as key predictors[34][35] - Inflation is driven by factors such as food prices, global commodity prices, and monetary supply, with M2 leading inflation by 12 months[39][42][66] Macroeconomic Policies - Monetary policy tools include reserve requirement ratios, interest rates, and open market operations, with a focus on dynamic fine-tuning[52] - Fiscal policy is characterized by budget deficits and government-led investments, with fiscal spending having a multiplier effect on GDP[62][65]