环球市场动态 全 球 各 经 济 体 分 化 进 入 下 半 年 股 票 美国国债受日本国债拍卖结果欠佳 影响，早盘下挫。随后的 5 年期美 债拍卖需求强劲，美债跌幅略有收 窄。盘后美国国际贸易法院发布裁 决，认定川普错误地引用一项紧急 法令来证明征收关税的合理性。消 息提振了风险情绪，美债收益率跳 升。 A 股市场五连跌，市场情绪持续低 迷；港股高开低走，市场整体缺乏 方向；欧洲股市收盘走低，经济数 据日程较为平淡令投资者整体转向 谨慎态度；美股盘中等待英伟达 (NVDA US) 财报，三大指数齐下 跌，金龙中国指数也表现不佳，英 伟达强劲财报推动芯片股盘后走 高。 产品及投资方案部 注：bp/bps=基点；pt/pts=百分点 中信证券财富管理 (香港) 免责声明请参考封底 外 汇 / 商 品 OPEC+联合部长级会议暂时维持 石油产量政策不变，周末将就 7 月 是否增产做出决定，交易员权衡伊 朗和俄罗斯供应风险，周三国际油 价反弹超 1%。美国法院阻止特朗 普 4 月 2 日关税政策生效，今天亚 洲早盘美元指数走高，现货黄金、 日元走低。 固 定 收 益 ▪ 预计 2025 年下半年全球经济增长将延续回 ...

环球市场动态 2025 年内地中期宏观经济展望 股 票 A 股周二继续震荡走低，市场情绪 低迷；港股反弹，医药股表现突出； 消息称欧盟继续加速与美国谈判进 程，欧股连续两日上涨；美股周一 休市后大涨，标指创两周来最大涨 幅，消费者信心数据强势反弹大幅 提振了市场情绪。 产品及投资方案部 注：bp/bps=基点；pt/pts=百分点 中信证券财富管理 (香港) 免责声明请参考封底 外 汇 / 商 品 OPEC+增产预期冲淡欧美贸易局 势缓和影响，周二国际原油期货下 跌 1%；受美元反弹和避险需求降 温影响，国际金价回落 2%，G-10 货币兑美元普跌；日本财政部考虑 削减超长债发行，日本国债收益率 大跌，日元跌幅居前。 固 定 收 益 长周末结束后，周二美国国债上涨， 收益率曲线走平，主要受日债走高、 欧美贸易缓和及月底买盘需求提 振。亚洲债券延续坚挺，利差收窄 1-3 个基点。 欧 美 市 场 | | 欧美主要指数 | | | | | | 主要指数 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- ...

环球市场动态 若美国关税提升对欧盟的影响 股 票 周一 A 股小幅下跌，大盘继续板块 轮动；港股走弱，大型科技股表现 疲软，汽车股因价格战影响表现低 迷；欧洲股市周一表现亮眼，特朗 普推迟对欧盟征收关税带来积极反 映；美股周一因阵亡将士纪念日休 市。 外 汇 / 商 品 市场权衡贸易紧张局势有所缓解以 及 OPEC+增产前景，布伦特原油 期货基本持平。 固 定 收 益 周一英美金融市场因假期休市。亚 洲债市交投静淡，整体情绪坚挺， 债券利差收窄 1-2 个基点。日本今 天拍卖 40 年期国债。中国人民银 行采取行动，增加流动性投放，谨 防中国债市出现日本和美国市场那 样的暴跌。 产品及投资方案部 注：bp/bps=基点；pt/pts=百分点 中信证券财富管理 (香港) 免责声明请参考封底 2025 年 5 月 27 日 123 中 ▪ 美国总统特朗普 5 月 23 日威胁对欧盟关税提升至 50%，随后在美欧对话后特朗普 5 月 25 日表示将欧盟关税 截至期限延至 7 月 9 日。若关税威胁最终落地，考虑到美国是欧盟最大最主要的出口国家，额外 50%关税预 计会对欧盟经济以及欧盟制造业造成较大冲击，尤其是德国 ...

环球市场动态 美元体系长期根基已出现松动 股 票 中国市场周五表现平淡，整体呈走 弱趋势，恒瑞医药(1276 HK) 港股 上市首日带领医药股走强；特朗普 威胁 6 月起对欧盟征收 50%关税， 欧美股市齐跌，同时特朗普再度将 矛头指向苹果，苹果 (AAPL US) 周五跌 3%，连续八个交易日下跌。 5 月 26 日美股将于阵亡将士纪念 日休市。 外 汇 / 商 品 美欧贸易局势再起波澜，提振黄金 的避险需求，上周五国际金价上涨 2%；美元大跌推动伦敦工业金属走 高；市场对美伊可能达成核协议的 信心减弱，原油在假期前交投清淡 小幅走高。 固 定 收 益 上周五美国国债大多小幅上涨。特 朗普对欧盟和苹果发出关税威胁， 避险情绪曾推动美债收益率下跌超 10bp；盘尾随着美国长周末假期临 近，收益率回升。亚洲债市继续表 现坚挺，中国投资级债券表现突出， 利差收窄 2-5 个基点。 产品及投资方案部 注：bp/bps=基点；pt/pts=百分点 中信证券财富管理 (香港) 免责声明请参考封底 2025 年 5 月 26 日 123 中 ▪ 预期今年 4 月以来，随着特朗普政策不确定性提升，美元资产一度出现 "股债汇 ...

Market Overview - A-shares and Hong Kong stocks collectively declined on Thursday, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.22% to 3,380 points, and the Hang Seng Index down 1.19%[16] - European markets closed lower due to concerns over the U.S. fiscal outlook, with the Stoxx 600 index down 0.64%[9] - U.S. stock indices showed mixed results, with the Dow Jones down slightly by 1 point, while the Nasdaq rose 0.28% to 18,925.7 points[9] Fixed Income - Long-term U.S. Treasury yields have risen sharply, with the 30-year yield reaching a 19-month high of 5.15%[9] - The U.S. House of Representatives narrowly passed a tax and spending bill, raising concerns about increasing fiscal deficits, which pressured long-term bonds[30] - Asian investment-grade bonds performed well, with spreads narrowing by 2-4 basis points, driven by strong demand for high-rated and sovereign bonds[30] Commodities and Forex - Oil prices fell to near two-week lows, with WTI crude down 0.6% to $61.2 per barrel, amid OPEC+ discussions to increase production significantly[27] - The U.S. dollar index rebounded, with G-10 currencies generally declining against the dollar, except for the Canadian dollar[27] - Gold prices retreated, with New York gold down 0.56% to $3,295.0 per ounce[27] Economic Indicators - Recent U.S. economic data showed mixed signals, with initial jobless claims rising and existing home sales unexpectedly dropping to a seven-month low[30] - The U.S. manufacturing PMI improved to 52.3 in May, indicating a slight expansion in the manufacturing sector[30] Corporate Highlights - Google announced significant upgrades to its AI models and plans to launch smart glasses in 2026, reflecting its ongoing innovation in AI infrastructure[8] - Xiaomi launched its self-developed SoC, showcasing advancements in technology and potential future growth in the smartphone and IoT sectors[14]

Economic Outlook - India's GDP is projected to grow by 7.0% in Q4 FY2025, down from 8.4% in Q4 FY2024 and below the National Statistical Office's forecast of 7.6%[6] - The Goods and Services Tax (GST) revenue is expected to increase by 10.7% year-on-year, indicating a nominal GDP growth of approximately 10.5%[6] Market Performance - Chinese markets saw a second consecutive day of gains, with Ningde Times (300750 CH/3750 HK) leading the rise[3] - U.S. stock markets faced sell-offs, with the Dow Jones down 1.91% to 41,860.4 points, and the S&P 500 down 1.61% to 5,844.6 points due to concerns over fiscal deficits[9] Fixed Income Trends - U.S. Treasury yields rose above 5% for 30-year bonds, driven by concerns over fiscal policy uncertainty and weak demand in a recent 20-year bond auction[5][30] - Asian bond markets showed strength, with spreads narrowing by 2-3 basis points[5] Commodity Movements - International crude oil prices fell over 1% due to rising U.S. inventories, with NY crude oil at $61.57 per barrel[27] - Gold prices increased for the third consecutive day, reaching $3,313.5 per ounce amid a weakening dollar[27] Stock Highlights - Netease (NTES US) reported better-than-expected performance in Q1 2025, with revenue and profit exceeding market expectations[9] - Meituan (3690 HK) is expected to see a 17% revenue growth in Q1 2025, driven by strong performance in its core local business[14]

Market Overview - Chinese markets experienced a rebound, with the Hang Seng Index ending a three-day decline, driven by a surge in the pharmaceutical sector and a 16.4% increase in Ningde Times on its debut[3][11] - European stocks continued to rise, supported by easing tariff concerns and a reduction in geopolitical tensions, with the Stoxx 600 index up 0.73%[9] - U.S. stocks fell, with the S&P 500 halting a six-day winning streak, as economic concerns weighed on dollar assets[9] Interest Rates and Monetary Policy - The one-year Loan Prime Rate (LPR) in mainland China was lowered to 3.0%, and the five-year LPR to 3.5%, both down by 10 basis points from the previous month[5] - Major Chinese banks collectively reduced deposit rates, with savings rates cut by 5 basis points and term deposit rates by 15-25 basis points, indicating a clear signal of stabilizing interest margins[5] - The recent interest rate cuts are expected to maintain stable loan demand, with social financing growth potentially rising due to government bonds[5] Commodity and Currency Movements - WTI crude oil futures surged by 3.5% amid uncertainties surrounding U.S.-Iran negotiations and potential Israeli military actions against Iran's nuclear facilities[4][26] - The Japanese yen appreciated against the dollar, reflecting market reactions to geopolitical developments[4] - Gold prices rose by 1.6%, reaching $3,284.6 per ounce, as traders covered short positions[26] Stock Performance - In the U.S., the Dow Jones fell by 114 points (0.27%) to 42,677, while the S&P 500 dropped 0.39% to 5,940[9] - The Hang Seng Index and the National Enterprises Index both increased by approximately 1.5%[11] - Notable stock movements included a 32% rise in Sanofi Pharmaceuticals following a licensing agreement with Pfizer, marking a record for Chinese innovative drug licensing[15] Bond Market Insights - U.S. Treasury yields showed mixed results, with the yield curve steepening significantly, while long-term bonds in Japan, Canada, and Europe faced selling pressure[4][29] - Asian bond markets showed improved sentiment, with spreads narrowing by 1-3 basis points[4][29] - The upcoming auction of 30-year U.S. Treasuries is anticipated to attract attention amid ongoing market uncertainties[4][29]

Economic Overview - China's April economic data shows overall stability, but domestic demand performance is poor, leading to a slight decline in the market[3] - Industrial production growth in April remains above market expectations, while investment growth falls short, particularly in manufacturing and real estate[6] Stock Market Performance - U.S. stock market experiences fluctuations after Moody's downgrades the U.S. credit rating, but the S&P 500 sees a six-day rise as investors buy on dips[3][9] - European markets show mixed results, with the Stoxx 600 index rising by 0.13% and the UK FTSE 100 increasing by 0.17% due to new trade agreements[9] Currency and Commodity Trends - The U.S. dollar index declines by 0.66% to 100.426 following the credit rating downgrade, while gold prices rise by 1.45% to $3,233.5 per ounce[28] - Oil prices increase for two consecutive days, with NYMEX crude oil rising by 0.32% to $62.69 per barrel[28] Fixed Income Market - The impact of Moody's downgrade on U.S. credit ratings is short-lived, with a temporary spike in 30-year Treasury yields above 5% before retreating[31] - Chinese investment-grade bond spreads widen by 1-3 basis points, indicating a slight increase in risk perception[31] Sector-Specific Insights - The healthcare sector in the U.S. shows strong performance, with the healthcare index rising by 0.96%[9] - The Chinese liquor industry faces pressure from new regulations limiting alcohol consumption in government settings, impacting demand for mid-range products[19]

Market Performance - Chinese stock market showed poor performance with major financial sectors dragging down the index, while US stocks continued to strengthen, with the S&P 500 gaining 0.7% and the Nasdaq rising 0.5%[3][9] - European markets experienced positive sentiment, with the Stoxx 600 index closing up 0.42% and the UK FTSE 100 index rising 0.59%[9] Economic Indicators - China's fiscal policy has significantly intensified since 2025, with the deficit rate reaching historical highs; Q1 fiscal spending increased by 5.6% year-on-year, while revenue decreased by 2.6%[6] - The US consumer confidence index fell to 50.8, marking the second-lowest level on record, amid rising inflation expectations[30] Commodity and Currency Trends - Oil prices rebounded, with NYMEX crude oil closing at $62.49, up 1.41%, while gold prices fell to $3,187.2 per ounce, marking a 4.1% decline for the week, the largest drop in six months[27] - The US dollar index rose by 0.21% to 101.09, marking four consecutive weeks of gains[27] Fixed Income Market - US Treasury yields saw slight increases, with the 10-year yield rising to 4.48%, while Moody's downgraded the US credit rating from Aaa to Aa1 due to rising government debt levels[30] - The Chinese bond market showed minor fluctuations, with the 2-year yield at 4.00% and the 10-year yield at 4.48%[29] Sector Performance - In the Hong Kong market, the Hang Seng Index fell by 0.46%, driven by declines in major financial stocks and technology shares, while healthcare stocks gained 1.5%[11] - The pet economy sector is expected to continue growing, driven by stable overseas demand and domestic market shifts towards local brands[19]

投资策略 每周投资策略 上周环球 大类资产表现 按一下此處編輯母版標題樣式 文件名 产品及投资方案部 ｜2025年5月19日 每周投资策略 中信証券財富管理 (香港) CITIC Securities Wealth Management (HK) (1) 欧洲市场焦点 欧元区制造业读数 边际回升 本周主要国家 经济数据公布日程 欧股整体盈利下修还未结 束，关注本土导向的板块； 空中巴士 ；德国意昂 ETF 精选STOXX 欧洲航空航 天与国防ETF (2) 印尼市场焦点 经济承压或促使央行本周 降息 股票 宏观压力存在， 但估值已充分反映 ETF iShares MSCI印尼ETF 股票 交易事实，而非预期； 腾讯 ；阿里巴巴 资料来源：中信证券财富管理 (香港) 1 (3) 中美关税战演变的 影响 中美贸易谈判进程或可 总结为"三步走" 股票 上周环球 股市表现 中美大幅降低关税令全球市场鼓舞，美股反弹领涨全球 | | | | | | 环球主要股票市场表现 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...