环球市场动态 中 美 双 边 关 系 平 稳 前 行 股 票 产品及投资方案部 I 环球市场动态 I 2025 年 10 月 31 日 市场密切关注中美领导人会晤，中 国市场周四震荡走低，科技股表现 不佳；港股午间突然跳水，尾盘回 稳但未能转涨；欧洲股市表现分化， 市场缓慢消化各国央行利率决议； 美股受利率决议和大型科技股财报 影响承压，头部科技企业加码资本 开支引发市场担忧。 外 汇 / 商 品 周四美元指数触及三个月高位；日 本央行按兵不动后日元续弱；交易 员评估美国制裁以及中美谈判的影 响，国际油价小幅上涨，国际金价 在连续下跌后反弹。 固 定 收 益 美国国债下跌，市场延续 "降息预 期削减" 交易。Meta 发行 300 亿美 元债券，规模为今年高评级企业债 之最。亚洲债市整体持稳，债券利 差持平或轻微收窄。 产品及投资方案部 注：bp/bps=基点；pt/pts=百分点 中信证券财富管理 (香港) 免责声明请参考封底 2025 年 10 月 31 日 ▪ 2025 年 10 月 30 日上午，中美元首在韩国釜山举行会晤，深入讨论了中美经贸关系等议题，同意加强经贸等 领域合作。从谈判动机来看，美国中 ...

环球市场动态 A 股周三高开高走，大盘表现强势； 港股重阳节假期休市；欧洲股市表 现分化，市场密切关注美联储降息； 美股个别发展，鲍威尔鹰派发言拖 累道指下滑，科技股上升趋势不改。 鲍威尔 淡 化 12 月 降 息 预 期 股 票 外 汇 / 商 品 鲍威尔淡化美联储 12 月降息前景， 周三美元指数走高，黄金价格收窄 涨幅；市场聚焦俄罗斯和美国石油 库存状况，国际油价反弹。 固 定 收 益 美联储降息 25 个基点并宣布 12 月 起停止缩表，鲍威尔记者会对年末 降息现鹰派，引发美债大跌，收益 率上涨 8-11 个基点，市场下调未来 降息押注。 产品及投资方案部 注：bp/bps=基点；pt/pts=百分点 中信证券财富管理 (香港) 免责声明请参考封底 2025 年 10 月 30 日 ▪ 美联储 2025 年 10 月议息会议降息 25 基点，符合市场预期。鲍威尔对经济形势的判断与 9 月相近，谈及 FOMC 对 12 月是否继续降息分歧很大，表示 12 月降息并非 "板上钉钉"。不过，我们认为 12 月不降息需要美国政府 恢复正常运行，且发布不支持继续降息的经济数据，这比继续降息门槛更高。另外，我们认 ...

按一下此處編輯母版標題樣式 文件名 产品及投资方案部 ｜2025年10月27日 每周投资策略 中信証券財富管理 (香港) CITIC Securities Wealth Management (HK) 投资策略 每周投资策略 上周环球 大类资产表现 本周主要地区 经济数据公布日程 (1) 日本市场焦点 高市早苗当选新任首相 股票 "高市交易" 的后续演变； 东京电子；鹿岛建设 ETF iShares JPX-日经400指 数ETF 债券 日本信用债券 (2) 韩国市场焦点 预期三季度 经济增长不错 股票 KOSPI仍有进一步上行空 间；三星电子；SK海力 士 ETF iShares MSCI韩国ETF (3) 澳大利亚市场焦点 劳动力市场疲软支持 11月降息 股票 矿业公司将受惠于 资源价格上涨； Northern Star；力拓 ETF iShares安硕MSCI 澳大利亚ETF 资料来源：中信证券财富管理 (香港) 1 上周环球 股市表现 中美局势现缓和信号叠加美联储降息预期抬升，全球股市普遍上行 | | | | | | 环球主要股票市场表现 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- ...

Market Overview - U.S. inflation remains stable, with September CPI rising 0.3% month-on-month, lower than the previous 0.4%[6] - Core CPI increased by 0.2% month-on-month, also below the previous 0.3%[6] - Year-on-year CPI and core CPI both rose to 3.0%, slightly above previous values of 2.9% and 3.1% respectively[6] Stock Market Performance - U.S. stock markets surged, with the Dow Jones up 1.01% to 47,207 points, S&P 500 rising 0.79% to 6,791 points, and Nasdaq increasing 1.15% to 23,204 points[9] - Chinese A-shares rose significantly, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.71% to 3,950 points, and the Shenzhen Component Index up 2.02%[16] - Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index increased by 0.74%, recovering above 26,000 points[11] Commodity and Forex Market - Oil prices ended a three-week decline, with WTI crude oil down 0.5% to $61.5 per barrel, but up 6.9% for the week[27] - Gold prices fell 0.2% to $4,118.4 per ounce, ending a nine-week upward trend[27] - The U.S. dollar index remained stable, with the onshore RMB at 7.123 against the dollar[26] Fixed Income Market - U.S. short-term Treasury yields fell slightly, with the 2-year yield at 3.48% and the 10-year yield at 4.00%[30] - Market anticipates a 25 basis point rate cut from the Federal Reserve in the upcoming meeting[5] Key Economic Indicators - The U.S. manufacturing PMI for October showed strong growth, indicating resilience in the manufacturing sector[30] - Moody's adjusted France's rating outlook to negative, reflecting economic concerns[6]

Market Overview - Chinese market saw a rebound on Thursday afternoon, with major indices turning positive after a sluggish start[3] - European markets closed higher, driven by optimistic corporate earnings reports[3] - US markets rose, led by technology stocks, as the White House announced a meeting between US and Chinese leaders next week, easing market tensions[3] Commodities and Forex - International oil prices surged over 5% following US sanctions on two major Russian oil companies, with NY crude oil rising 5.62% to $61.79 per barrel[27] - International gold prices rebounded by 2%, reaching $4,125.5 per ounce[27] - The US dollar index remained stable at 98.94, with a year-to-date decline of 8.8%[26] Fixed Income - US Treasury yields increased by approximately 5 basis points across the board, driven by rising oil prices and inflation concerns ahead of the upcoming CPI data release[30] - The 10-year US Treasury yield rose to 4.00%, while the 30-year yield reached 4.58%[30] Stock Performance - Major US indices showed positive performance: Nasdaq up 0.9% to 22,941.8, S&P 500 up 0.6% to 6,738.4, and Dow Jones up 0.3% to 46,734.6[8] - In the Hong Kong market, the Hang Seng Index rose 0.72% to 25,967, with significant gains in large tech stocks[11] Economic Outlook - The 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China emphasized the need for an average GDP growth rate of over 4.5% annually over the next decade to achieve the goal of reaching the GDP per capita of a moderately developed country by 2035[6] - The upcoming "15th Five-Year Plan" is expected to provide more specific growth targets, with a focus on high-quality development and technological self-reliance[6]

Market Overview - Global markets showed positive momentum with U.S. stocks rising across the board, driven by easing concerns over U.S.-China relations and regional bank risks, with the Dow Jones up 1.1% to 46,706.6 points[3][10] - European markets also experienced gains, with the Stoxx 600 index rising over 1%, led by defense stocks amid geopolitical tensions[10] Economic Indicators - China's September economic data revealed a divergence in production and demand, with investment growth continuing to decline, falling below market expectations[6] - The Chinese third-quarter GDP data was strong, contributing to a narrowing of investment-grade bond spreads by 1-3 basis points[5][30] Commodity and Currency Trends - International gold prices reached a record high, with New York gold up 3.5% to $4,336.4 per ounce, while copper prices approached historical highs[4][27] - The U.S. dollar index saw a slight increase of 0.2%, while the Japanese yen remained stable amid increased bets on a potential interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan[26][27] Stock Performance - In the Hong Kong market, the Hang Seng Index rebounded significantly, rising 2.42% to 25,858 points, with major tech stocks like Alibaba and NetEase gaining around 5%[12][17] - U.S. tech giant Apple reported a 14% increase in iPhone 17 sales compared to the previous model, boosting its stock price by 3.94%[10] Sector Insights - The consumer sector in China is expected to benefit from new policy measures aimed at expanding service consumption, which may help improve retail sales growth in the fourth quarter[6][19] - The battery manufacturer CATL reported a 41% year-on-year increase in net profit for Q3, indicating strong performance amid rising demand for new battery technologies[15]

Group 1: China Market Focus - The "14th Five-Year Plan" economic growth target is expected to be around 4%-4.5% [15][17][18] - The upcoming policy direction will focus on technology innovation, green low-carbon initiatives, and improving living standards [19][20] - The "anti-involution" policy is anticipated to directly improve the profit margins of listed companies [24][26] Group 2: Investment Opportunities in Robotics - Investment strategies in embodied intelligent robots highlight the low valuation and financing scale of related companies [27][32] - The demand for model training requires specialized equipment suppliers, particularly in motion capture technology [28][30] - Key players in the robotics sector include Jingye Intelligent, CATL, and Nvidia, with a focus on capital layout and cloud computing resources [32][33] Group 3: U.S. Market Focus - The U.S.-China trade conflict is viewed as a short-term disturbance, with expectations for a potential agreement before the November 1 deadline [40][41] - The U.S. job market shows signs of cooling, but the economy remains resilient, with two more rate cuts expected this year [42][45] - The Fed's preventive rate cuts are likely to support stock market growth, particularly in technology sectors sensitive to interest rates [46][48]

Market Overview - The US-China trade conflict has reignited concerns, leading to a significant global market pullback, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling below 3,900 points and the Hang Seng Index declining nearly 1,000 points over five days[3] - The S&P 500 experienced its largest drop in six months, while the Golden Dragon China Index plummeted by 6.1%[3] Stock Market Performance - The Dow Jones dropped 878 points or 1.90%, closing at 45,479 points; the S&P 500 fell 2.71% to 6,552 points; and the Nasdaq decreased by 3.56% to 22,204 points[10] - In Europe, the Stoxx 600 index fell by 1.25%, with the UK FTSE 100 down 0.86% and the German DAX and French CAC 40 down 1.5% and 1.53%, respectively[10] Currency and Commodity Trends - International oil prices dropped by 4% due to escalating US-China trade tensions, with NY crude oil falling to $58.9 per barrel, the lowest since May[26] - The US dollar index decreased by 0.6% to 98.978, while gold prices rose by 0.8% to $3,975.9 per ounce[26] Fixed Income Market - US Treasury yields rose sharply, with declines of 9-11 basis points across various maturities, driven by heightened risk aversion following Trump's tariff threats[5] - Asian investment-grade bond spreads widened by 1-3 basis points amid soft market conditions[30] A-Share Market Dynamics - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3,897.03 points, down 0.94%, with the Shenzhen Component Index and ChiNext Index falling by 2.70% and 4.55%, respectively[16] - The semiconductor sector led the decline, with notable drops in stocks like Huahong (down 11.88%) and SMIC (down 7.89%)[16] Investment Recommendations - Investors are advised to focus on sectors with better valuation and performance alignment, particularly technology, manufacturing, and internet diagnostics, given the ongoing economic resilience and expected earnings growth in the US market[6]

Market Overview - During the National Day holiday, overseas markets showed mixed performance, with the Taiwan, Thailand, and Philippines markets leading gains, while Vietnam experienced significant declines[2] - The US stock market initially rose but later turned negative, with technology stocks dragging the S&P 500 down, ending a seven-day rally[8] Economic Indicators - The US government shutdown and political instability in France contributed to a continued rise in gold prices, nearing $4,000 per ounce, with New York gold futures up 0.7% to $3,976.6[23] - The market anticipates the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points in both October and December meetings, with current economic indicators showing a moderate cooling trend[4] Currency and Commodity Trends - The Japanese yen continued to weaken, with the USD/JPY exchange rate surpassing 152, reflecting ongoing market volatility[23] - The US Treasury market saw a rise in demand, with a strong auction for 3-year bonds, indicating investor confidence despite the government shutdown[25] Stock Performance - Major US indices closed with slight declines: Dow Jones down 0.2% to 46,602, S&P 500 down 0.4% to 6,714, and Nasdaq down 0.7% to 22,788[6] - In the Asia-Pacific region, Taiwan's stock index rose by 1.7%, while Vietnam's index fell by 0.6%[15] Sector Highlights - In the US, the consumer staples sector showed resilience, with core consumer goods rising 0.86%, while non-core consumer goods fell 1.43%[8] - In the Latin American markets, the Brazilian IBOVESPA index dropped 1.57%, with the non-essential consumer goods sector leading declines[8] Corporate News - Tesla's stock fell 4.45% after announcing a lower-priced version of the Model Y, priced at $39,990, which is about 15% lower than the previous base model[6] - IBM's stock rose 1.54% following its partnership with AI startup Anthropic to enhance enterprise software offerings[6]

Group 1: US Market Focus - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates two more times this year, with the next meetings on October and December [11][16][18] - Historical analysis shows that various asset classes have not reacted dramatically to US government shutdowns, indicating a potential for stability in the market [13][18] - Micron Technology (MU US) reported strong demand from data centers, with Q4 FY2025 earnings exceeding expectations, driven by growth in HBM business and a favorable DRAM market [19] - Meta Platforms (META US) unveiled a new AI glasses product line, enhancing its position in the AI and metaverse space, with a target price of $860 [19] Group 2: Singapore Market Focus - The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) is set to restart easing measures in October, with expectations of a slowdown in GDP growth to 2.2% for the year [24][30] - Keppel Data Centre REIT is expanding in Japan with a recent acquisition worth SGD 707 million, expected to boost its distribution per unit (DPU) [36] - Singapore Telecommunications (ST SP) is focusing on digital infrastructure growth, with potential for significant earnings growth in FY2026 and beyond [36] Group 3: Vietnam Market Focus - Vietnam's GDP grew by 7.5% in the first half of 2025, driven by strong domestic consumption and investment, but is expected to slow down due to external trade uncertainties [43][46] - The Vietnamese central bank is likely to maintain a loose monetary policy in the short term, supporting economic growth through increased public investment [46] - Vietnam may be upgraded to FTSE's secondary emerging market status, potentially attracting around $1.1 billion in inflows if the upgrade occurs [49][50]