环球市场动态 内 地 出 口 增 速 下 滑 但 仍 具 韧 性 股 票 A 股周一涨跌不一，硬件板块回落； 港股午后上涨，大型科技股表现突 出；德国经济数据较好，欧洲主要 股市收高；市场消化非农数据后重 新预热美联储 9 月降息，美股反弹 标指接近记录高位。 外 汇 / 商 品 OPEC+温和增产释放谨慎信号，周 一国际油价上涨；美元指数延续 8 月非农数据公布后的跌势；交易员 全力押注美联储降息，金价再创新 高。 固 定 收 益 美国长期国债领涨，30 年期收益率 跌破 200 日移动均线。亚洲债市流 动较轻，利差轻微走阔。 产品及投资方案部 注：bp/bps=基点；pt/pts=百分点 中信证券财富管理 (香港) 免责声明请参考封底 2025 年 9 月 9 日 ▪ 2025 年 8 月，中国出口金额 (美元口径) 同比上升 4.4% (Wind 一致预期为上升 5.9%)，2025 年 7 月同比上 升 7.2%；8 月进口金额 (美元口径) 同比增长 1.3% (Wind 一致预期为同比增长 3.3%)，7 月同比增长 4.1%。 8 月出口增速低于预期和前值，主要受对美出口动能边际放缓和基数因素影 ...

按一下此處編輯母版標題樣式 文件名 产品及投资方案部 ｜2025年9月8日 每周投资策略 中信証券財富管理 (香港) CITIC Securities Wealth Management (HK) 投资策略 每周投资策略 上周环球 大类资产表现 本周主要地区 经济数据公布日程 弱美元及反内卷受益板块； 关注9月苹果发布会及 META开发者大会 ETF iShares安硕富时中国 A50 ETF (2) 欧洲市场焦点 法国政治动荡 冲击欧洲经济 股票 关注受益于欧洲国防开支 提高的领域； 莱茵金属；西门子能源 ETF iShares安硕MSCI德国 ETF (3) 英国市场焦点 预计财政大臣在秋季预算 中提高税收 股票 挪威海军计划订购英国制 护卫舰；宇航系统； 罗尔斯-罗伊斯 资料来源：中信证券财富管理 (香港) 1 (1) A股市场焦点 8月贸易与价格数据 前瞻 股票 上周环球 股市表现 美国非农数据低于预期，对美国经济担忧短暂盖过降息提振 | | | | | | 环球主要股票市场表现 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- ...

环球市场动态 美 国 非 农 数 据 再 度 走 弱 股 票 周五 A 股集体走高，回复所有周四 跌幅，超 4800 支个股上涨；港股 走强，大型科技股集体上扬；美国 非农数据大幅低于预期，欧洲股市 受影响走弱；美股跌幅更加明显， 市场对经济担忧的情绪盖过降息的 提振。 外 汇 / 商 品 美国就业数据疲弱强化美联储本月 降息预期，上周五美元指数走弱； 国际金价突破 3,600 美元创纪录新 高；沙特在上周末 OPEC+会议上 寻求推动进一步增加产量，国际油 价跌超 2%至 5 月以来低位。 固 定 收 益 上周五美国国债收益率下跌，8 月 非农就业数据远低于预期，市场或 已完全定价对 9 月降息。亚洲债市 情绪相对积极。 产品及投资方案部 注：bp/bps=基点；pt/pts=百分点 中信证券财富管理 (香港) 免责声明请参考封底 理想汽车 (LI US; 23.65 美元；目标价：39 美元) 市场低估了理想的 AI 属性。8 月以来，理想汽车股价 出现回调，目前公司市销率 (2025 年彭博一致预期) 仅为 1.3 倍，我们认为市场低估了理想汽车的 AI 属性。从研发投 入来看，公司每年研发投入超百亿人 ...

Market Overview - US ADP employment data for August showed a significant slowdown in private sector job growth, reinforcing expectations for a Fed rate cut this month[5] - US stock markets surged, with the Dow Jones rising 350 points (0.77%) to close at 45,621.3, and the S&P 500 gaining 0.83% to 6,502.1, marking a new high[8] - European markets mostly closed higher, with the Stoxx 600 index up 0.61%, driven by stabilizing bond markets and easing investor sentiment[8] Commodity and Forex Insights - EIA reported an unexpected increase in US crude oil inventories by 2.42 million barrels, leading to a decline in international oil prices[24] - The dollar index rose by 0.21% to 98.35, while gold prices fell by 0.80% to $3,577 per ounce after a six-day rally[24] - The 10-year US Treasury yield dropped to 4.16%, reflecting increased bets on a Fed rate cut[28] Real Estate and Mortgage Rates - The US housing market remains subdued, with mortgage rates above 6%, limiting affordability for buyers[5] - The spread between 30-year mortgage rates and 10-year Treasury yields is expected to gradually decrease to slightly above 2% as the Fed cuts rates[5] Asian Market Performance - Asian markets showed mixed results, with Japan's Nikkei 225 index rising 1.5% to 42,580.3, while the Shanghai Composite fell 2.1%[18] - Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index dropped 1.12%, closing just above the 25,000 mark, with significant declines in technology and resource stocks[10] Sector Highlights - In the US, 10 out of 11 S&P sectors rose, with Amazon shares up 4.29% following a partnership announcement, while Salesforce shares fell 4.85% due to disappointing revenue guidance[8] - In China, the A-share market saw a collective decline, with the ChiNext index down 4.25% and the STAR 50 index down 6.08%[15]

Market Overview - A-shares showed mixed results, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 1.16% to 3,813 points, while the Shenzhen Component fell 0.65%[15] - The Hang Seng Index closed down 0.6%, with healthcare stocks leading gains, while major tech and financial stocks dragged the market down[10] - European stocks rebounded, supported by improved PMI data and stabilized bond markets, with the Euro Stoxx 600 rising 0.7%[3] Commodity and Forex Insights - Gold prices reached a record high of $3,606.10 per ounce, up 1.21%, driven by weak U.S. employment data and increased rate cut expectations[25] - Oil prices fell, with WTI crude down 2.47% to $63.97 per barrel, influenced by OPEC+ discussions on potential production increases[25] - The U.S. dollar index decreased by 0.3% to 98.14, while the Japanese yen appreciated by 0.2% against the dollar[25] Economic Indicators - U.S. job openings fell to a 10-month low of 7.18 million, below the expected 7.38 million, indicating a weakening labor market[5] - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve this month is estimated at 95%[5] - The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond decreased by 4.5 basis points to 4.22%[29] Sector Performance - In the U.S., the energy sector saw the largest decline, down 2.30%, while the telecommunications sector led gains, up 3.76%[8] - In Hong Kong, healthcare stocks rose by 2.1%, while technology and financial sectors faced declines of 1.6% and 0.8%, respectively[11] - The storage industry is showing signs of recovery, with demand increasing and prices rebounding, indicating a potential turning point[18]

产品及投资方案部 注：bp/bps=基点；pt/pts=百分点 中信证券财富管理 (香港) 免责声明请参考封底 2025 年 9 月 2 日 市。 环球市场动态 人 民 币 破 7 仍 需 要 更 多 催 化 股 票 中国市场 9 月开门红，A 股高开高 走，黄金股领涨大市；港股高位震 荡，阿里巴巴 (9988 HK) 业绩突出 大涨 18.5%；欧洲股市收高，防务 与医疗板块带动市场；美股周一休 外 汇 / 商 品 美国金融市场因公众假日休市，瑞 典克朗领涨 G-10 货币，日元表现 落后；石油交易员预计，OPEC+本 周末开会时将维持原油产量不变， 周一原油期货窄幅波动。 固 定 收 益 美国假期休市，市场静淡。投资者 对美联储本月降息乐观。欧洲经济 数据向好，降息暂缓预期下，欧债 收益率普涨。亚洲债市交投清淡， 中国投资级债券利差基本持平。 欧美主要指数 主要指数 指数 收盘点位 1日涨跌 (%) 道琼斯 45,544.9 (0.2) 标普 500 6,460.3 (0.6) 纳斯达克 21,455.6 (1.2) 巴西圣保罗证交所指数 141,422.3 0.3 标普墨西哥 IPC 指数 58,708 ...

按一下此處編輯母版標題樣式 文件名 产品及投资方案部 ｜2025年9月1日 每周投资策略 中信証券財富管理 (香港) CITIC Securities Wealth Management (HK) 投资策略 每周投资策略 上周环球 大类资产表现 (1) 美国市场焦点 特朗普解职库克使 市场降息预期进一步增加 美股"降息交易" 主线重新明确； Zoom；ServiceNow ETF Invesco纳斯达克100 指数ETF (2) 台股市场焦点 AI依旧强劲 (3) 马来西亚市场焦点 经济增速持续放缓 "抢出口"效应 正逐渐减弱 股票 银行业受益于资产质量 稳健与流动性改善； 联昌国际银行；丰隆银行 资料来源：中信证券财富管理 (香港) 1 本周主要地区 经济数据公布日程 股票 股票 AI 仍将是半导体产业向上 成长的最大驱动力； 纬创；台光电 ETF iShares 安硕核心MSCI 中国台湾ETF 上周环球 股市表现 美国降息预期反复美股窄幅震荡， 法国政局动荡拖累欧股表现不佳，A股情绪高涨，领涨全球 | | | | | | 环球主要股票市场表现 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | -- ...

Market Overview - A-shares continued to rise, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.37% to 3,857 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.99% and the ChiNext Index rose by 2.23%[14] - The U.S. PCE index for July showed a larger-than-expected increase, leading to a decrease in rate cut expectations and a drop in U.S. stock indices, with the Dow Jones down 0.2% and the Nasdaq down 1.2%[8][25] - European markets declined due to geopolitical tensions and political uncertainties in France, with the Stoxx 600 index falling by 0.64%[8][10] Economic Indicators - China's manufacturing PMI for August was 49.4, a slight increase of 0.1 from the previous month, while the non-manufacturing PMI rose to 50.3, up 0.2[4] - The U.S. core PCE inflation rate increased from 2.8% in June to 2.9% in July, indicating persistent inflationary pressures[8][25] - India's GDP growth for Q1 2026 was reported at 7.8%, exceeding expectations, driven by investment and fiscal spending[21] Sector Performance - In the U.S. market, six out of eleven sectors in the S&P 500 saw gains, with the healthcare sector leading at a 0.73% increase, while the information technology sector fell by 1.63%[8] - In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng Index rose by 0.32%, with significant gains in healthcare and materials sectors, while semiconductor stocks faced declines[10] - The semiconductor sector in A-shares experienced a pullback, with stocks like Hengxuan Technology dropping by 7.8%[14] Commodity and Currency Trends - Gold prices increased, nearing historical highs, amid rising geopolitical tensions and legal disputes surrounding the Federal Reserve[25] - International oil prices fell, with WTI crude down 0.9% to $64.01 per barrel, and Brent crude down 0.7% to $68.12 per barrel[25] - The U.S. dollar index remained stable at 97.77, with the dollar appreciating against the yuan and the euro[23]

环球市场动态 短 期 港 币 汇 率 或 偏 强 运 行 股 票 周四 A 股强势反弹，科技股领涨大 市，科创 50 指数涨 7.2%；港股三 连跌，外卖价格战拖累企业业绩， 南下资金大幅净流出；欧洲股市收 跌，市场谨慎观望地缘政治动态； 美国二季度 GDP 获得上调，标指 再创新高，市场缓慢消化英伟达 (NVDA US) 财报。 外 汇 / 商 品 俄乌达成和平协议的前景转淡，短 期内更多俄罗斯原油进入全球市场 的可能性下降，周四国际油价上涨 近 1%；投资者等待美国将公布的 通胀数据，以及特朗普与美联储理 事的法律纠纷进展，美元指数下跌 0.4%，国际金价上涨 1.2%。 固 定 收 益 美国国债涨跌互见，前端收益率上 涨，曲线趋平。GDP 数据稳健，劳 动力数据疲软。美联储领导层关键 事件将至。7 年期债拍卖后，美债 收益率曲线进一步走平。 产品及投资方案部 注：bp/bps=基点；pt/pts=百分点 中信证券财富管理 (香港) 免责声明请参考封底 2025 年 8 月 29 日 ▪ 在联系汇率制度下，港元的汇率与利率表现高度依赖于美元走势与美国货币政策取向，并且也会受资本流动、 港币供需变动等影响。 ...

Market Overview - The Asia-Pacific stock markets showed mixed results, with the Philippines index rising by 2.1% to 6,273 points, while the A-share and Hong Kong markets experienced declines of over 1%[3][21]. - U.S. stock indices reached new highs, with the Dow Jones up 0.3% to 45,565.2 points and the S&P 500 rising 0.2% to 6,481.4 points[8][9]. Economic Indicators - From January to July, China's industrial enterprises reported total profits of CNY 40,203.5 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 1.7%, while total revenue increased by 2.3% to CNY 78.07 trillion[6]. - In July, industrial profits fell by 1.5% year-on-year, indicating that the effects of anti-involution policies on corporate profitability may take time to materialize[17]. Commodity and Currency Markets - International oil prices rose over 1% due to a decline in U.S. crude and fuel inventories, with NYMEX crude oil increasing by 1.42% to $64.15 per barrel[4][27]. - Gold prices also saw a slight increase of 0.5%, closing at $3,404.6 per ounce, amid expectations of two rate cuts by the Federal Reserve by year-end[4][27]. Corporate Performance - Nvidia's Q2 earnings exceeded expectations by 7%, with a revenue growth of 56% year-on-year, although guidance for the next quarter was slightly below market expectations[9]. - Meituan reported disappointing Q2 results, with total revenue of CNY 918 billion, a year-on-year increase of only 11.7%, and an adjusted EBITDA down 86.8% to CNY 18 billion[15]. Sector Performance - In the U.S., the energy sector led gains with a rise of 1.15%, driven by a larger-than-expected reduction in oil inventories[9]. - In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng Index fell by 1.27% to 25,201 points, with significant pressure on technology and property stocks[11].