周一市场风险偏好回升，美国国债 收益率走高，曲线陡化。20 年期美 债拍卖表现稳健。亚洲债市流量较 轻，但市场情绪坚挺。中国投资级 债券表现不一，整体债券利差轻微 收窄。 产品及投资方案部 注：bp/bps=基点；pt/pts=百分点 中信证券财富管理 (香港) 免责声明请参考封底 2025 年 6 月 17 日 环球市场动态 二 季 度 内 地 经 济 有 望 延 续 较 快 增 长 股 票 中东紧张局势持续但市场担忧有所 降温，全球股市周一回暖。A 股港 股上涨，"稳定币"概念爆发，内房股 上扬；欧洲股市走高，收复前一日 跌幅；美股大幅反弹，科技股跑赢 大市，金龙中国指数上涨超 2%。 外 汇 / 商 品 据报伊朗寻求缓和与以色列的敌对 局势，周一国际油金价回落；日本 议息前夕日元领跌 G-10 货币。 固 定 收 益 123 ▪ 今年 5 月，内地工业和服务业生产保持较快增长，内需中消费有超预期表现，外需景气度受短期因素影响小幅 下降。从生产端来看，5 月工业增加值增速小幅回落，主要是中美谈判缓和促使工业生产在 5 月下旬显著改善。 从需求侧来看，"618 购物节" 叠加消费品以旧换新政策带动下 5 月 ...

中信証券財富管理 (香港) CITIC Securities Wealth Management (HK) 投资策略 每周投资策略 按一下此處編輯母版標題樣式 文件名 产品及投资方案部 ｜2025年6月16日 每周投资策略 上周环球 大类资产表现 (1) 日本市场焦点 预计央行只会边际性 收紧货币政策 公司治理革命加上 关税压力最大时点已过； 京瓷 ；JR东日本 ETF iShares JPX-日经 400指数ETF (2) 印尼市场焦点 财政压力将 继续困扰经济 股票 等待市场情绪进一步回暖 ETF iShares MSCI印尼ETF (3) 菲律宾市场焦点 经济放缓及通胀温和 支持再降息 股票 PCOMP指数估值低； BDO金融银行； 菲律宾群岛银行 ETF iShares MSCI菲律宾ETF 资料来源：中信证券财富管理 (香港) 上周环球 债市表现 中东局势带来扰动，美联储会议在即 | | | | | 上周环球债市表现 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 当前 | 收 ...

环球市场动态 持 续 关 注 中 东 局 势 突 变 影 响 ▪ 2025 年 6 月 13 日，以色列对伊朗境内多处与核计划以及其他军事设施相关的目标发动空袭，石油及黄金价格 迅速大幅上行，美股等风险资产价格下跌。从各方动机来看，以色列试图削弱伊朗的同时巩固国内政治局势； 根据特朗普近期表态，我们推测美国方面或无意直接卷入冲突，国会也有诸多意见分歧，可能延续不参与进攻 但仅支持以色列防御的态度。此前以色列与伊朗之间分别于 2024 年 4 月与 10 月进行过相互袭击，但客观来 看，鉴于核设施的敏感性，我们推测本次冲突的烈度与持续性可能明显超过去年的相互袭击。后续需密切关注 以色列的袭击范围与烈度、伊朗的报复力度以及特朗普政府的态度。 ▪ 重点新闻：以色列与伊朗连续第三天相互轰炸，特朗普表示美国可能介入这场冲突；上诉法院裁决特朗普可暂 时继续在洛杉矶动用军队应对抗议活动；英国首相斯塔默表示，敲定与美国的贸易协议已无障碍；日本央行官 员据悉认为通胀略高于今年早些时候的预期；政府发债加速推动中国 5 月信贷增长，但家庭贷款需求依然偏 弱；国常会要求更大力度推动房地产市场止跌回稳；国常会研究优化药品和耗材集采有关 ...

固 定 收 益 周四美国国债大涨，PPI 数据不及 预期，强劲的 30 年期国债标售，和 中东地区的地缘紧张局势，推动美 国国债上涨。亚洲债券市场呈现双 向交投，卖盘压力至债券利差走宽 2-3 个基点。 环球市场动态 全 球 贸 易 形 势 日 趋 复 杂 股 票 A 股周四小幅震荡，酒类板块低迷； 港股受全球市场情绪影响表现不 佳，医药板块继续获抱团；欧洲股 市表现疲软，中东局势升温令市场 担忧；美股小幅收高，PPI 数据低 于预期得到市场积极反映，金龙中 国指数下跌。 外 汇 / 商 品 以色列袭击伊朗，其官员证实袭击 目标是伊朗核设施，中东紧张局势 升温，今早亚洲时段原油期货曾大 涨超 8%、现货金涨超 1%、美元指 数微涨。 产品及投资方案部 注：bp/bps=基点；pt/pts=百分点 中信证券财富管理 (香港) 免责声明请参考封底 2025 年 6 月 13 日 123 ▪ 在全球贸易形势日趋复杂的背景下，出口企业商业模式在贸易规则制约下不断调整，理解贸易制度成为投资判 断的重要前提。从权力划分来看，美国贸易政策体系涵盖立法、执行与监督三个环节，总统在贸易政策上拥有 较大的裁量权。从执行体系来看， ...

环球市场动态 新 型 政 策 性 金 融 工 具 将 带 动 财 政 加 速 发 力 股 票 中美第二日磋商进展顺利，达成贸 易框架，中国市场周三整体走强， 券商股引领大市，港交所上市大湾 区企业或可在深交所挂牌；海外市 场趋于谨慎，欧洲股市未能守住盘 初涨幅；美国 5 月 CPI 低于预期， 美股早盘升至三个月最高水平后出 现获利回吐，最终小幅走弱。 外 汇 / 商 品 在美中贸易谈判接近成功、以及美 伊新一轮核协议对峙的推动下，周 三国际原油价格大幅上涨；美国通 胀数据低于预期，强化了投资者对 美联储降息的押注，助推金价上扬。 固 定 收 益 周三美国国债上涨，低于预期的通 胀数据以 10 年期美债强劲招标结 果带来提振。亚洲债券市场持续稳 健，韩国和东南亚债市表现突出， 中国投资级债券利差收窄 2-4 个基 点。 产品及投资方案部 注：bp/bps=基点；pt/pts=百分点 中信证券财富管理 (香港) 免责声明请参考封底 2025 年 6 月 12 日 新思科技 (SNPS US; 500.73 美元; 目标价: 643 美元) 当季业绩超预期，出口管制影响存在不确定 性。受益于下游 AI&HPC 强 ...

2025 年 6 月 11 日 环球市场动态 内 地 一 揽 子 民 生 保 障 落 地 股 票 A 股港股周二午后突然跳水齐转 跌，但创新药板块延续强势，市场 谨慎观望中美谈判进展；欧洲股市 表现分化，市场观望情绪浓厚；美 股再涨逼近历史高点，美谈判代表 在伦敦会谈后表示谈判结果良好推 动情绪向好，金龙中国指数上涨。 外 汇 / 商 品 交易员等待美国将公布的 5 月 CPI 数据，市场等待美中贸易会谈的结 果，周二美元指数微涨，国际金价 及油价小幅走低。 固 定 收 益 周二美国国债小幅波动，收益率曲 线略微趋平，市场对 3 年期美债拍 卖反应平淡，等待将在周三公布的 5 月 CPI 数据以及 10 年期国债标 售。亚洲债市活跃，利差收窄 2-10 个基点，韩国债券表现突出。 产品及投资方案部 注：bp/bps=基点；pt/pts=百分点 中信证券财富管理 (香港) 免责声明请参考封底 123 ▪ 2025 年 6 月 9 日，中办、国办发布《关于进一步保障和改善民生 着力解决群众急难愁盼的意见》；次日，国 家发改委、教育部等六部门在发布会上介绍了相关政策情况。总体而言，本次政策部署贯彻了今年 "民生为大 ...

Market Overview - The mainland's export growth in May decreased by 3.3 percentage points to 4.8%, slightly below market expectations due to a decline in April orders and high base effects from last year[5] - The U.S. stock market showed mixed results, with the Dow Jones down 0.0%, S&P 500 up 0.1%, and Nasdaq up 0.3% as investors await updates from U.S.-China trade talks[7] - The Hang Seng Index rose 1.63%, entering a technical bull market, with a 21% increase since April's low[10] Trade and Economic Indicators - The U.S. dollar index fell slightly, following a decrease in U.S. Treasury yields, while international oil prices continued to rise, with NY crude oil up 1.1% to $65.29 per barrel[23] - The consumer inflation expectations in the U.S. improved in May, indicating a potential easing of inflationary pressures[5] - The Asian bond market showed stability, with spreads narrowing by 2-5 basis points, driven by improved risk sentiment[27] Sector Performance - In the A-share market, healthcare stocks led the gains, with some innovative drug stocks hitting the 20% limit up[14] - The automotive sector is undergoing rapid consolidation, with electric vehicle sales growth expected to slow significantly from a 60% CAGR to 10% by 2030[12] - The technology sector in Hong Kong saw significant gains, with the Hang Seng Tech Index rising 2.78%[10] Key Developments - The U.S. is considering relaxing some export controls in exchange for China's easing of rare earth transport restrictions during ongoing trade negotiations[5] - The New York Fed's survey indicated a comprehensive improvement in consumer inflation expectations for May, suggesting a shift in market sentiment[5] - The automotive industry is expected to face a prolonged price war, impacting stock performance in the short term but potentially leading to a clearing of excess capacity by 2026[12]

Group 1: Hong Kong and Mainland Market Focus - The growth rate of social financing in Mainland China is expected to peak around mid-2025, driven by government bond issuance and low base effects from last year [13][15]. - Chinese equity assets are entering an annual bull market, with a focus on the core asset pool of 50 stocks in the Hong Kong-Shanghai-Shenzhen market [16][21]. - The iShares MSCI China ETF is highlighted as a key investment vehicle for international investors looking to access large and mid-cap Chinese stocks [23]. Group 2: UK Market Focus - The UK economy is expected to slow down, with GDP growth in Q2 likely to be weaker due to various economic indicators showing a gloomy outlook [32][36]. - The labor market is cooling, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.5% and wage growth slowing, indicating potential demand weakness in the coming months [32][41]. - The iShares MSCI UK ETF is noted for tracking the performance of large and mid-cap companies in the UK, providing exposure to the UK market [42]. Group 3: Stablecoin Theme - Global regulatory efforts are accelerating, with the U.S. and Hong Kong advancing legislation on stablecoins, which could enhance their role in cross-border payments [48][51]. - Stablecoins are seen as a programmable digital currency that can bridge the gap between fiat and cryptocurrencies, enhancing market liquidity [48][51]. - The advantages of compliant stablecoin systems over traditional SWIFT systems are highlighted, particularly in terms of efficiency and transparency in cross-border transactions [51][52].

Economic Indicators - In May 2025, the U.S. added 139,000 non-farm jobs, exceeding the forecast of 126,000, while the unemployment rate remained stable at 4.2%[6] - The job vacancy rate has returned to pre-pandemic levels, indicating limited "buffer" for the labor market, which may lead to a faster increase in the unemployment rate[6] Market Reactions - U.S. stock markets surged, with the Dow Jones rising 443 points (1.05%) to close at 42,762 points, and the S&P 500 gaining 1.03% to 6,000 points, following positive employment data[10] - The European stock markets experienced slight gains, supported by the U.S. employment growth and an upward revision of the Eurozone's Q1 GDP to 0.6%[10] Currency and Commodity Trends - The U.S. dollar strengthened against major currencies, with the dollar index rising by 0.5%[28] - International oil prices increased, with NY crude oil up 1.9% to $64.58 per barrel, as concerns about demand suppression eased[28] Fixed Income Market - Following the employment data, U.S. Treasury yields rose by 9-13 basis points, indicating a sell-off in the bond market[5] - The 2-year Treasury yield increased to 4.03%, while the 10-year yield rose to 4.51%[31] Asian Market Performance - The A-share market showed mixed results, with the Shanghai Composite Index slightly up by 0.04% to 3,385 points, while the Shenzhen Component fell by 0.19%[17] - The Hong Kong market experienced declines, with the Hang Seng Index down 0.48% and the Hang Seng Tech Index dropping 0.63%[12] Sector Performance - In the U.S., all 11 sectors of the S&P 500 rose, with the energy sector leading gains, up nearly 2% due to improved oil demand outlook[10] - In Hong Kong, the materials sector gained 2.3%, while the information technology sector fell by 1.8%[13]

Market Overview - The US appeals court reinstated tariffs imposed by Trump, leading to a cautious global market sentiment[3] - A-shares experienced volatility and weakened overall, while Hong Kong stocks were soft with major tech stocks declining[3] - European markets showed optimism ahead of a potential interest rate cut by the ECB, despite tariff concerns[3] Economic Indicators - China's manufacturing PMI for May was 49.5, up 0.5 from the previous month, indicating a slight recovery in manufacturing activity[6] - The non-manufacturing PMI for China decreased to 50.3, down 0.1 from the previous month, showing limited elasticity to tariff changes[6] - The US personal consumption expenditure (PCE) data showed a significant slowdown in consumer spending growth in April[6] Stock Market Performance - The Dow Jones closed at 42,270.1, up 0.1%, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq saw minor declines of 0.0% and 0.3% respectively[8] - In Latin America, the S&P Mexico IPC index fell by 1.3%, and the Brazilian IBOVESPA index decreased by 1.1%[9] Sector Performance - In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng Index dropped by 1.2%, with the Hang Seng Tech Index declining by 2.48%[11] - The healthcare sector in Hong Kong showed resilience, with some biotech stocks performing strongly despite overall market weakness[11] Fixed Income Market - The US Treasury yield curve steepened, with the 2-year yield at 3.90% and the 10-year yield at 4.40%[26] - Asian bond markets were generally weak, with investment-grade bond spreads widening by 2-6 basis points[26] Commodity Prices - International oil prices rose over 2% amid escalating tensions between Russia and Ukraine[22] - The Bloomberg Commodity Index showed a slight decline of 0.9% over the past day[21] Currency Movements - The US dollar index was at 99.33, reflecting a 0.1% increase, while the dollar's value against the Chinese yuan was 7.199, down 0.2%[21] - The euro appreciated against the dollar, trading at 1.135, a decrease of 0.2%[21]