Market Overview - A-shares continued to rise, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.37% to 3,857 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.99% and the ChiNext Index rose by 2.23%[14] - The U.S. PCE index for July showed a larger-than-expected increase, leading to a decrease in rate cut expectations and a drop in U.S. stock indices, with the Dow Jones down 0.2% and the Nasdaq down 1.2%[8][25] - European markets declined due to geopolitical tensions and political uncertainties in France, with the Stoxx 600 index falling by 0.64%[8][10] Economic Indicators - China's manufacturing PMI for August was 49.4, a slight increase of 0.1 from the previous month, while the non-manufacturing PMI rose to 50.3, up 0.2[4] - The U.S. core PCE inflation rate increased from 2.8% in June to 2.9% in July, indicating persistent inflationary pressures[8][25] - India's GDP growth for Q1 2026 was reported at 7.8%, exceeding expectations, driven by investment and fiscal spending[21] Sector Performance - In the U.S. market, six out of eleven sectors in the S&P 500 saw gains, with the healthcare sector leading at a 0.73% increase, while the information technology sector fell by 1.63%[8] - In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng Index rose by 0.32%, with significant gains in healthcare and materials sectors, while semiconductor stocks faced declines[10] - The semiconductor sector in A-shares experienced a pullback, with stocks like Hengxuan Technology dropping by 7.8%[14] Commodity and Currency Trends - Gold prices increased, nearing historical highs, amid rising geopolitical tensions and legal disputes surrounding the Federal Reserve[25] - International oil prices fell, with WTI crude down 0.9% to $64.01 per barrel, and Brent crude down 0.7% to $68.12 per barrel[25] - The U.S. dollar index remained stable at 97.77, with the dollar appreciating against the yuan and the euro[23]

环球市场动态 短 期 港 币 汇 率 或 偏 强 运 行 股 票 周四 A 股强势反弹，科技股领涨大 市，科创 50 指数涨 7.2%；港股三 连跌，外卖价格战拖累企业业绩， 南下资金大幅净流出；欧洲股市收 跌，市场谨慎观望地缘政治动态； 美国二季度 GDP 获得上调，标指 再创新高，市场缓慢消化英伟达 (NVDA US) 财报。 外 汇 / 商 品 俄乌达成和平协议的前景转淡，短 期内更多俄罗斯原油进入全球市场 的可能性下降，周四国际油价上涨 近 1%；投资者等待美国将公布的 通胀数据，以及特朗普与美联储理 事的法律纠纷进展，美元指数下跌 0.4%，国际金价上涨 1.2%。 固 定 收 益 美国国债涨跌互见，前端收益率上 涨，曲线趋平。GDP 数据稳健，劳 动力数据疲软。美联储领导层关键 事件将至。7 年期债拍卖后，美债 收益率曲线进一步走平。 产品及投资方案部 注：bp/bps=基点；pt/pts=百分点 中信证券财富管理 (香港) 免责声明请参考封底 2025 年 8 月 29 日 ▪ 在联系汇率制度下，港元的汇率与利率表现高度依赖于美元走势与美国货币政策取向，并且也会受资本流动、 港币供需变动等影响。 ...

Market Overview - The Asia-Pacific stock markets showed mixed results, with the Philippines index rising by 2.1% to 6,273 points, while the A-share and Hong Kong markets experienced declines of over 1%[3][21]. - U.S. stock indices reached new highs, with the Dow Jones up 0.3% to 45,565.2 points and the S&P 500 rising 0.2% to 6,481.4 points[8][9]. Economic Indicators - From January to July, China's industrial enterprises reported total profits of CNY 40,203.5 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 1.7%, while total revenue increased by 2.3% to CNY 78.07 trillion[6]. - In July, industrial profits fell by 1.5% year-on-year, indicating that the effects of anti-involution policies on corporate profitability may take time to materialize[17]. Commodity and Currency Markets - International oil prices rose over 1% due to a decline in U.S. crude and fuel inventories, with NYMEX crude oil increasing by 1.42% to $64.15 per barrel[4][27]. - Gold prices also saw a slight increase of 0.5%, closing at $3,404.6 per ounce, amid expectations of two rate cuts by the Federal Reserve by year-end[4][27]. Corporate Performance - Nvidia's Q2 earnings exceeded expectations by 7%, with a revenue growth of 56% year-on-year, although guidance for the next quarter was slightly below market expectations[9]. - Meituan reported disappointing Q2 results, with total revenue of CNY 918 billion, a year-on-year increase of only 11.7%, and an adjusted EBITDA down 86.8% to CNY 18 billion[15]. Sector Performance - In the U.S., the energy sector led gains with a rise of 1.15%, driven by a larger-than-expected reduction in oil inventories[9]. - In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng Index fell by 1.27% to 25,201 points, with significant pressure on technology and property stocks[11].

Market Overview - A-shares showed mixed performance with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.39% at 3,868 points, while the Shenzhen Component rose 0.26%[18] - U.S. stocks experienced slight gains, with the Dow Jones up 0.3% to 45,418 points and the S&P 500 rising 0.4% to 6,465 points[11] - European markets were weak, with the Stoxx 600 index down 0.83% and the French CAC 40 dropping 1.7% due to political uncertainties[11] Interest Rate Expectations - The market anticipates a more dovish stance from the Federal Reserve following Trump's dismissal of Fed Governor Cook, increasing expectations for rate cuts[6] - The implied probability of a rate cut in September has risen to nearly 90%[31] - The Fed is expected to cut rates three times in 2025, each by 25 basis points[6] Commodity and Currency Movements - The U.S. dollar weakened, with the Dollar Index down 0.2% to 98.23, while gold prices rose, reflecting market uncertainty[28] - International oil prices fell after four consecutive days of gains, with WTI crude down 2.39% to $63.25 per barrel[27] Fixed Income Market - U.S. Treasury yields saw a decline, with the 2-year yield down 4.5 basis points to 3.68% and the 10-year yield down 1.4 basis points to 4.26%[31] - The yield curve steepened as short-term bonds rallied amid strong demand in the 2-year auction[31] Corporate Highlights - Bilibili reported Q2 2025 revenue of 7.383 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.8%, exceeding Bloomberg consensus estimates[9] - Workday's Q2 2026 revenue reached $2.348 billion, up 14% year-on-year, also surpassing expectations[9]

Market Overview - A-shares continued to rise, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 1.51% to 3,883 points, marking a ten-year high, and total trading volume reaching 3.18 trillion RMB, the second highest in history[19] - The Hang Seng Index increased by 1.94%, driven by expectations of interest rate cuts, with major tech stocks like Alibaba and JD.com rising over 5% and 4% respectively[13] - European markets showed weakness, with the Stoxx 600 index down 0.44%, as investors awaited inflation data and trade agreement details[11] Economic Indicators - The People's Bank of China announced a 600 billion RMB MLF operation to maintain liquidity, resulting in a net liquidity injection of 300 billion RMB[6] - The U.S. market is focused on the upcoming PCE inflation data, with expectations of a 83% probability for a rate cut in September[32] Commodity and Currency Movements - Oil prices rose, with WTI crude increasing by 1.79% to $64.80 per barrel, supported by geopolitical tensions and anticipated U.S. sanctions on Russian oil[30] - The U.S. dollar index rose by 0.73% to 98.43, while gold prices remained stable at $3,373.8 per ounce[30] Stock Performance - Pinduoduo reported a 7.1% year-on-year revenue growth to 104 billion RMB, exceeding expectations, driven by a 13% increase in online marketing services revenue[9] - The S&P 500 saw a decline of 0.43%, with nine out of eleven sectors falling, led by a 1.62% drop in consumer staples[11] Fixed Income Market - U.S. Treasury yields rose slightly, with the 10-year yield at 4.28%, reflecting market anticipation of upcoming bond auctions[32] - Asian bond markets showed resilience, with credit spreads narrowing by 0-3 basis points[32]

Group 1: US Market Focus - The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates three times this year, with each cut being 25 basis points, as indicated by Powell's comments at the Jackson Hole summit [10][15][16] - The "rate cut trade" has been reestablished, with a focus on stocks like Mobileye and Klaviyo, as well as the Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight Real Estate ETF [10][17][22][23] - Mobileye is positioned for growth in the advanced driver-assistance systems (ADAS) market, with significant orders expected for its L2+/L3/L4 products by 2024 and partnerships with major automotive companies [22] - Klaviyo, a leading digital marketing platform, is projected to capture a growing market share, with a focus on cross-selling new products and expanding into adjacent markets [22] Group 2: European Market Focus - The path to peace between Russia and Ukraine remains challenging, with significant obstacles in territorial conditions and security assurances [30][34] - European defense spending is expected to increase significantly, with NATO members committing to raise defense budgets to 5% of GDP, benefiting companies like Rheinmetall and Rolls-Royce [35][39] - Rheinmetall is well-positioned to benefit from increased defense spending, with projected annual revenue growth of 20% through 2030 due to rising demand for military equipment [39] - Rolls-Royce is experiencing growth in its civil aviation business, supported by strong demand across all end markets, while also benefiting from increased defense spending [39] Group 3: Philippine Market Focus - The Philippine economy showed stronger-than-expected GDP growth in Q2 2025, driven by improved employment and loose monetary policy, with further interest rate cuts anticipated [49][52] - The Philippine stock market is seen as attractive due to low valuations, with the MSCI Philippines Index trading at approximately 11 times earnings, and is expected to benefit from regional capital inflows [52] - Key sectors to watch include banking, utilities, and real estate, with specific companies like BPI, BDO Unibank, Converge, and Ayala Land highlighted for their potential [52][53]

Market Overview - A-shares surged on Friday, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 1.45% to 3,825 points, marking a ten-year high[16] - The Hang Seng Index and the Hang Seng Tech Index increased by 0.93% and 2.71%, respectively, reflecting strong market sentiment[12] - U.S. stocks saw significant gains, with the Dow Jones up 1.89% to 45,631 points, marking a new high[10] Monetary Policy Insights - Fed Chair Powell's speech at Jackson Hole indicated a potential interest rate cut in September, raising market expectations for three rate cuts this year, each by 25 basis points[6] - The market is pricing in a 90% probability of a rate cut in September, leading to a decline in the U.S. dollar index by 0.9% to 97.72[28][32] - Short-term U.S. Treasury yields fell nearly 10 basis points, with the 2-year yield at 3.70% and the 10-year yield at 4.25%[32] Sector Performance - In the U.S., 10 out of 11 S&P sectors rose, with consumer discretionary leading gains at 3.18%[10] - In A-shares, the technology sector saw a significant increase of 5.6%, driven by semiconductor stocks[17] Commodity and Currency Movements - Gold prices rose by 1.1% to $3,374.4 per ounce, supported by rate cut expectations[28] - The price of crude oil increased slightly, with WTI crude at $63.66 per barrel, reflecting Powell's dovish stance[28] Individual Stock Highlights - Kingsoft Cloud reported Q2 2025 revenue of 2.349 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 24.2%, with AI revenue growing over 120%[9] - Walmart's Q2 revenue reached $64.3 billion, up 4.5% year-on-year, driven by e-commerce and digital expansion[9]

Market Overview - A-shares showed mixed performance with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 0.13% to 3,771 points, marking a 10-year high[13] - U.S. stocks fell for the fifth consecutive day, with the Dow Jones down 0.34% to 44,785 points and the S&P 500 down 0.40% to 6,370 points[7] - European markets exhibited divergence, with the Stoxx 600 index closing nearly flat, while the UK FTSE 100 rose 0.23%[7] Economic Indicators - U.S. manufacturing expanded at the fastest pace since 2022, while initial jobless claims indicated a weak labor market[4] - The Federal Reserve officials expressed hawkish views ahead of Chairman Powell's speech at Jackson Hole, raising concerns about inflation[4] Commodity and Currency Movements - International oil prices fluctuated, with WTI crude oil rising 0.5% to $63.52 per barrel and Brent crude oil up 1.2% to $67.67 per barrel[26] - The U.S. dollar index increased by 0.4%, while gold prices saw a slight decline[26] Company Performance - Futu Holdings reported a 74.9% year-on-year increase in revenue for H1 2025, reaching HKD 10.006 billion, with a Non-GAAP net profit growth of 101.7%[7] - AAC Technologies' net profit for H1 2025 grew by 63% to CNY 876 million, exceeding market expectations[12] Stock Market Trends - The Hang Seng Index fell 0.24%, with major tech stocks declining, while healthcare stocks showed strength with a 2.2% increase[9] - In Latin America, the S&P Mexico IPC Index rose 0.76%, driven by gains in the healthcare sector[7] Bond Market Insights - U.S. Treasury yields fluctuated, with the 2-year yield rising 4.4 basis points to 3.79% following strong PMI data[29] - Standard & Poor's maintained the U.S. sovereign credit rating at "AA+" with a stable outlook, citing concerns over rising debt levels[29]

环球市场动态 需 求 支 撑 短 期 港 元 偏 强 运 行 股 票 A 股午后大幅拉升，科创 50 大涨 创年内新高；港股午后回暖，新消 费领涨大市；欧洲股市表现分化， 市场等待 Jackson Hole 年会；美股 一度大跌后平息跌幅，标指四连跌， 市场从科技龙头切换至风险较低的 板块。 外 汇 / 商 品 交易员持续关注俄乌谈判进展，但 美国原油库存下降下周三国际油价 上涨超 1%；市场焦点转向鲍威尔 在杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会将发表 的讲话，美元指数变动不大，国际 金价和铜价走高。 固 定 收 益 美国国债周三收盘小幅上涨，特朗 普称美联储理事 Cook 必须马上辞 职后，短债收益率短暂下跌。美国 20 年期美债拍賣获良好需求，支撑 长债表现。美联储最新政策会议纪 要显示 FOMC 委员普遍担忧通膨 压力，但对市场影响有限。 产品及投资方案部 注：bp/bps=基点；pt/pts=百分点 中信证券财富管理 (香港) 免责声明请参考封底 2025 年 8 月 21 日 ▪ 中国香港金管局在今年 5 月大规模释放流动性后，美港利差持续较高以及港币需求阶段性有所下降，导致此前 6 月与 7 月港元汇率承压。但 ...

Market Overview - A-shares experienced a slight decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.02% to 3,727 points, while the Shenzhen Component fell 0.12% and the ChiNext Index dropped 0.17%[18] - Hong Kong stocks also saw a downturn, with the Hang Seng Index decreasing by 0.21%, the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index down 0.3%, and the Hang Seng Tech Index falling 0.67%[13] IPO Market - The Hong Kong IPO market showed signs of recovery, with total fundraising reaching HKD 129.2 billion, a 147% increase compared to the entire year of 2024, marking the highest average fundraising size since 2022 at HKD 2.4 billion[6] - The first-day loss rate for IPOs was at its lowest since 2018, at 28%, with average and median first-day returns of 15.1% and 3.4%, respectively[6] Global Market Trends - European markets generally rose due to improved prospects for a peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine, with the Stoxx 600 index up 0.69%[11] - U.S. markets showed mixed results, with the Dow Jones slightly up by 0.02% to 44,922 points, while the S&P 500 fell by 0.59% to 6,411 points and the Nasdaq dropped 1.46% to 21,314 points[11] Commodity Prices - International oil prices fell over 1%, with NYMEX crude down 1.69% to USD 62.35 per barrel and Brent crude down 1.22% to USD 65.79 per barrel[30] - Gold prices and London copper also experienced declines amid market volatility[30] Fixed Income Market - U.S. Treasury yields halted a three-day decline, with the 2-year yield at 3.75% and the 10-year yield at 4.31%[33] - Market participants are anticipating potential interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, influenced by comments from President Trump regarding the impact of current rates on the real estate sector[33] Sector Performance - In the U.S., the real estate sector led gains with a 1.80% increase, while the technology sector faced the largest decline at 1.88%[11] - In Hong Kong, the healthcare sector saw significant losses, with major pharmaceutical stocks like 恒瑞医药 (Hengrui Medicine) dropping over 5%[13] Notable Stocks - Cisco (CSCO US) reported a slight earnings beat and strong AI order growth, with total orders exceeding USD 2 billion for FY2025[9] - Xiaomi (1810 HK) reported a 30.5% increase in revenue and a 75.1% increase in adjusted net profit for Q2 2025, driven by strong performance in its AIoT and electric vehicle segments[16]