| 行业基本情况 | | | --- | --- | | 收盘点位 | 6866.35 | | 52 周最高 | 7730.11 | | 52 周最低 | 5627.38 | 证券研究报告：证券Ⅱ|行业周报 发布时间：2026-01-26 行业投资评级 中性|维持 行业相对指数表现 -13% -9% -5% -1% 3% 7% 11% 15% 19% 23% 2025-01 2025-04 2025-06 2025-08 2025-11 2026-01 证券Ⅱ 沪深300 资料来源：聚源，中邮证券研究所 研究所 分析师:王泽军 SAC 登记编号:S1340525110003 Email:wangzejun@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《公告券商核心业务全面发力，印证 行业全面复苏》 - 2026.01.19 证券行业报告（2026.01.19-2026.01.23） 业绩高增落地，多驱动因素支撑盈利改善 ⚫ 投资要点 本周又有 3 家券商发布业绩公告，综合上周发布公告的两家券商 来看，2025 年券商业绩表现亮眼，头部及区域券商均实现显著盈利增 长，印证资本市场活力提升与行业转型成效。本周光大证券、国 ...

Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is Neutral, maintained [1] Core Insights - The report highlights a significant improvement in the performance of the securities industry, with major firms reporting substantial profit growth, indicating a recovery in the capital market and successful industry transformation [3] - Key drivers for this growth include enhanced market activity, strategic business integration, and a favorable macroeconomic environment [3] - The report emphasizes the importance of maintaining high trading volumes and the positive impact of low interest rates on brokerage profitability [4][18] Summary by Sections 1. Company Performance Announcements - Everbright Securities reported a revenue of 10.863 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.18%, and a net profit of 3.729 billion yuan, up 21.92% [13] - Guolian Minsheng expects a net profit of 2.008 billion yuan, a 406% increase year-on-year, driven by the acquisition of Minsheng Securities and business integration [14] - Northeast Securities anticipates a net profit of 1.477 billion yuan, a 69.06% increase, supported by growth in investment and wealth management businesses [15] 2. Industry Fundamentals Tracking 2.1 SHIBOR 3M Rate - The 3-month SHIBOR rate remained stable at 1.60%, indicating a favorable funding environment for the brokerage industry [17] 2.2 Stock Trading Volume - Daily trading volume averaged over 3.3 trillion yuan, significantly higher than the previous quarter, reflecting strong market sentiment and activity [18] 2.3 Margin Financing Situation - As of January 22, the margin financing balance was 2.7249 trillion yuan, showing a notable increase from the previous week, indicating a rise in market risk appetite [19] 2.4 Bond Market Index and Trading Volume - The bond market index rose from 249.3002 to 249.8696 points, with average daily trading volume at 30.025 billion yuan, indicating high market activity [22] 2.5 Stock-Bond Spread - The yield on 10-year government bonds showed a slight decline, while the stock-bond spread increased, suggesting improved attractiveness of equities relative to bonds [27] 3. Market Review - The A-share securities industry index decreased by 0.61%, slightly outperforming the CSI 300 index, which fell by 0.62% [29] - The securities industry ranked 28th among 31 sectors, indicating a modest performance compared to other sectors [30]

Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Outperform the Market" [1] Core Views - The report highlights that geopolitical events are accelerating the de-dollarization process, leading to a broad increase in commodity prices [4] - Precious metals are recommended for strong holding due to rising demand driven by political events and net selling pressure on U.S. Treasury bonds, with gold and silver prices increasing by 8.30% and 14.80% respectively [4] - Copper prices have risen by 1.09% due to a temporary easing of European risks, but there are signs of weak demand from downstream sectors [5] - Aluminum prices are expected to rise as supply continues to grow while demand shows signs of stabilization [5] - Tin prices have rebounded significantly due to macroeconomic factors and uncertainties in supply from conflict regions [6] - Lithium prices are on the rise due to low inventory levels and strong demand expectations, indicating a potential upward trend [6] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The closing index for the industry is at 9972.0, with a weekly high of 9972.0 and a low of 4295.55 [1] Price Movements - Basic metals saw price changes: copper up 1.09%, aluminum up 0.25%, zinc up 1.08%, lead down 1.43%, and tin up 13.57% [19] - Precious metals experienced significant increases: gold up 8.30% and silver up 14.80% [19] - Lithium carbonate prices surged by 13.25% due to supply constraints [19] Inventory Levels - Global visible inventory changes: copper increased by 38,104 tons, aluminum by 21,952 tons, zinc by 2,662 tons, lead by 12,077 tons, tin by 16 tons, and nickel decreased by 1,711 tons [33][35]

Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [1] Core Views - The report highlights the ongoing decline in the national population and birth rates, with a significant increase in the elderly population, which is expected to drive demand for home medical devices and supplies [5][21] - The report emphasizes the long-term positive trend in the innovative drug sector, supported by the strength of China's innovative drug companies in global competition [7] - The medical device sector is showing signs of improvement, with major companies reporting better performance in Q3, indicating a potential recovery in the industry [9] Summary by Relevant Sections Industry Overview - As of January 26, 2026, the closing index stands at 8623.36, with a 52-week high of 9323.49 and a low of 6876.88 [1] Recent Market Performance - During the week of January 19-23, 2026, the A-share pharmaceutical sector fell by 0.39%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.23 percentage points but underperforming the ChiNext index by 0.05 percentage points [6][24] - The medical device sector is expected to attract more investment as the pressure from centralized procurement diminishes [9][30] Population and Demographics - By the end of 2025, the total population of China was 1,404.89 million, with a natural population growth rate of -2.41% [15] - The elderly population (aged 65 and above) reached 22,365 million, accounting for 15.9% of the total population, indicating a trend towards an aging society [18][20] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies in the elderly care medical sector, such as Yuyue Medical, Kefu Medical, and Loxin Medical, due to the anticipated increase in demand for home medical devices [5][22] - In the innovative drug sector, companies like Innovent Biologics and Kintor Pharmaceutical are highlighted as beneficiaries of the growing global participation of Chinese innovative drug firms [7][27] - For the medical device sector, companies such as Mindray and Hunan Aohua are recommended due to their improving performance and market position [9][30] Future Outlook - The report anticipates a recovery in the medical device sector as procurement policies become more reasonable and the pressure from centralized procurement decreases [30] - The innovative drug sector is expected to continue its upward trajectory, with more innovative projects anticipated in 2026 [26][28]

从高频数据来看，2026 年春节位于 2 月中旬，1 月是春节前的最 后一个完整生产月，为了保持供应平稳，1 月生产或小幅回升，外需 或存在提前发货，1 月出口亦有望保持韧性，关注中国与欧盟、一带 一路沿线国家合作加深。生意社 BPI 代表的广谱价格指数环比延续上 行，除了全球定价商品之外，亦包括国内定价的煤炭、螺纹、化工品 等，年后 3 月开工季的价格趋势值得期待。值得注意的是，12 月 PMI 建筑业景气度较为明显改善，但 1 月高频数据显示，建筑业实物工作 量并未显著启动，100 大中城市拿地意愿相对较弱，30 大中城市商品 房销售景气度较低，或掣肘投资，需要密切跟踪节后复工复产情况， 这或对投资止跌回稳产生显著影响。 证券研究报告：宏观报告 发布时间：2026-01-26 研究所 分析师:袁野 SAC 登记编号:S1340523010002 Email:yuanye@cnpsec.com 研究助理:苑西恒 SAC 登记编号:S1340124020005 Email:yuanxiheng@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《内外需增长斜率分化，关注出口和 科技共振方向》 - 2026.1.22 宏观研 ...

证券研究报告：建筑材料|行业周报 发布时间：2026-01-26 行业投资评级 强于大市|维持 | 行业基本情况 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘点位 | | 6032.51 | | 52 | 周最高 | 6032.51 | | 52 | 周最低 | 4167.51 | 行业相对指数表现 研究所 分析师:赵洋 SAC 登记编号:S1340524050002 Email:zhaoyang@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《年末需求进入淡季，关注供给改善品 种》 - 2026.01.19 建材行业报告 （2026.01.19-2026.01.25） 防水发布涨价函，关注内需弹性品种 投资要点 本周受防水涨价及风格切换因素影响，建材板块表现较好，尤其 内需涨价逻辑相关标的涨幅居前。展望 26 年，我们认为消费建材弹 性明显，防水、涂料、石膏板等行业均有持续涨价预期，目前行业需 求处于淡季，我们判断在竞争格局改善及反内卷大环境下，行业将持 续延续涨价逻辑，建议关注：东方雨虹、科顺股份、三棵树、兔宝宝、 北新建材。 水泥：年末全国市场逐步进入淡季，整体来看，全国需求仍呈现 下滑态势，房建 ...

Group 1: Report General Information - The report is a fixed - income report released on January 26, 2026 [1] - The analyst is Liang Weichao with SAC registration number S1340523070001 [2] Group 2: Core Views - The high point of bond yields has appeared, and the repair is continuing. The timing of reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts is crucial for the bond market's repair progress during the subsequent stock market's spring rally [3] - The probability of monetary easing is higher in the first half of the year. The time window for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts may be around the Two Sessions in March, before which the yield curve will price in the expectations [3][13] - From the perspective of funds, overnight rates are around the policy rate, and there is no significant fluctuation before the Spring Festival. The short - term central rate may decline before the Spring Festival when cross - festival funds are not tight [3][13] - The high point of long - term yields has appeared, and the central downward space is smaller than that of short - term yields. The 10 - year and 30 - year yields have allocation value, but the 30 - year yield has higher volatility and greater trading difficulty [4][18] - From the "stock - bond relationship" perspective, the yield repair is almost in place. If interest rate cuts occur in spring, there may be a stage of simultaneous rise in stocks and bonds, and yields may decline slightly; otherwise, the bond market repair is almost complete [4][20] Group 3: Market Conditions and Trends Configuration and Trading Sentiment - The return of the allocation disk and the repair of the trading disk have warmed the bond market sentiment. Large - scale banks have increased their allocation demand and bought 7 - 10 - year treasury bonds in the secondary market, and the credit spread of Tier 2 and perpetual bonds has declined, indicating the repair of the product household's liability side [10] Impact of Reserve Requirement Ratio Cuts and Interest Rate Cuts - The central bank has implemented interest rate cuts for structural monetary policy tools, indicating that short - term policy rate cuts are unlikely in the short term, but there is room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts throughout the year, and the bond yield curve may shift downward as a whole or show a slight bullish steepening [12] Fund Situation - Overnight funds are around the policy rate, and the 7 - day fund price remains stable. The central bank's liquidity injection is expected to smooth out the seasonal fluctuations before the Spring Festival, and the current state of funds is still relatively stable and loose [13] Short - term Yield - The 1 - year treasury bond yield has declined and is below 1.3%. Short - term varieties such as inter - bank certificates of deposit are also following the downward trend. However, if the R007 remains above 1.5% before the Spring Festival, the downward space for NCD rates is limited [15][16] Long - term Yield - The high point of long - term yields has appeared, and the central downward space is smaller than that of short - term yields. The 10 - year yield has limited short - term downward odds but has allocation value, while the 30 - year yield also has allocation value but high trading difficulty [4][18] Stock - Bond Relationship - The 2026 stock market's spring rally is likely to be characterized by "mid - stage acceleration, easing expectations, and growth - led", which will have a short - term impact on the bond market rather than a trend - based negative impact. Currently, the 10 - year treasury bond has recovered its decline since the beginning of the year, and the 30 - year treasury bond is still 3 BP away from full recovery [4][20]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [1]. Core Views - The construction materials sector has shown good performance recently, driven by price increases in waterproof materials and a shift in market style. There is a strong expectation for continued price increases in consumer building materials such as waterproofing, coatings, and gypsum boards in 2026, despite the current off-season demand [3][4]. - The cement market is entering a seasonal downturn, with national demand showing a downward trend. However, the cement industry's capacity is expected to decline under policies limiting overproduction, which will enhance profit elasticity [3][4]. - The glass industry is facing sustained demand pressure due to the real estate sector, with traditional peak season orders showing limited improvement. Supply-side adjustments are ongoing, but overall supply-demand pressures remain [4][14]. - The fiber glass sector is experiencing a mixed demand environment, with AI-driven demand in specific segments showing potential for growth [4]. Summary by Sections Cement - The national cement market is entering a seasonal downturn, with demand expected to decrease significantly as the New Year approaches. December 2025 cement production was 144 million tons, down 6.6% year-on-year [8]. - The civil market shows relatively rigid demand, while the construction market remains weak. Future price trends are expected to be stable but weak [8]. Glass - The glass industry is under pressure, with traditional peak season demand not showing significant improvement. High inventory levels among intermediaries are a concern. Recent supply-side adjustments have occurred, but overall supply-demand pressures persist [14]. Fiber Glass - The fiber glass sector is seeing a mixed demand landscape, with AI-related products experiencing growth. The industry is expected to see a trend of increasing volume and price due to this demand [4]. Consumer Building Materials - The profitability of the consumer building materials sector has reached a bottom, with strong calls for price increases due to competitive pressures. Major categories like waterproofing and coatings are expected to see continued price hikes in 2026 [4]. Market Performance - The construction materials sector index increased by 9.23% over the past week, outperforming other major indices [5].

证券研究报告：机械设备 |公司点评报告 股票投资评级 买入 |维持 个股表现 2025-01 2025-04 2025-06 2025-08 2025-11 2026-01 -8% -2% 4% 10% 16% 22% 28% 34% 40% 46% 川仪股份 机械设备 资料来源：聚源，中邮证券研究所 公司基本情况 | 最新收盘价（元） | 25.23 | | --- | --- | | 总股本/流通股本（亿股）5.13 | / 5.12 | | 总市值/流通市值（亿元）129 | / 129 | | 52 周内最高/最低价 | 26.90 / 20.06 | | 资产负债率(%) | 48.0% | | 市盈率 | 16.60 | | 第一大股东 | 中国四联仪器仪表集团 | | 有限公司 | | 研究所 分析师:刘卓 SAC 登记编号:S1340522110001 Email:liuzhuo@cnpsec.com 分析师:陈基赟 SAC 登记编号:S1340524070003 Email:chenjiyun@cnpsec.com 川仪股份(603100) 业绩短期承压，看好国产替代大趋势 l 事件描述 公 ...

证券研究报告：机械设备 |公司点评报告 股票投资评级 个股表现 2025-01 2025-04 2025-06 2025-08 2025-11 2026-01 -8% -2% 4% 10% 16% 22% 28% 34% 40% 46% 川仪股份 机械设备 买入 |维持 资料来源：聚源，中邮证券研究所 公司基本情况 | 最新收盘价（元） | 25.23 | | --- | --- | | 总股本/流通股本（亿股）5.13 | / 5.12 | | 总市值/流通市值（亿元）129 | / 129 | | 52 周内最高/最低价 | 26.90 / 20.06 | | 资产负债率(%) | 48.0% | | 市盈率 | 16.60 | | 第一大股东 | 中国四联仪器仪表集团 | | 有限公司 | | 研究所 分析师:刘卓 SAC 登记编号:S1340522110001 Email:liuzhuo@cnpsec.com 分析师:陈基赟 SAC 登记编号:S1340524070003 Email:chenjiyun@cnpsec.com 川仪股份(603100) 业绩短期承压，看好国产替代大趋势 业绩短期承压，单 ...