证券研究报告：宏观报告 研究所 分析师:李起 SAC 登记编号:S1340524110001 Email:liqi2@cnpsec.com 研究助理:高晓洁 SAC 登记编号:S1340124020001 Email:gaoxiaojie@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《服务消费稳固，智能经济消费展现高 成长性》 - 2025.12.16 宏观观点 海外宏观周报：通胀与就业同步降温 ⚫ 核心观点： 上周，美国集中补发了一系列因政府停摆而推迟披露的经济数 据，整体指向通胀与就业同步降温。在上一期报告中，我们判断，2026 年美联储降息幅度将超出当前市场隐含的两次降息预期。 股市方面，2026 年宏观环境更有利于中小盘。相较于大型企业， 美国小企业对利率变化更为敏感，其融资与经营对降息的依赖程度更 高。利率，尤其是长端利率的下降，对小企业经营形成实质性支撑。 自 2022 年进入加息周期以来，小企业盈利表现相对于大型企业 明显承压，但近期市场对小企业盈利预期的修正已经缩小了与大企业 之间的差距。并且小企业股价相较大企业已经接近历史最低点，未来 反弹空间可期。类似地，当前小企业和大企业的相对估值也处于历史 低 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected stock price increase of over 20% relative to the benchmark index within the next six months [8][12]. Core Insights - The company, Yaoji Technology, reported a revenue of 2.108 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year decline of 24.42%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 390 million yuan, down 8.00% year-on-year [5][6]. - The decline in revenue is primarily attributed to a contraction in digital marketing business and ongoing pressure on downstream advertising demand. However, the overall gross margin improved to 44.46%, up 6.16 percentage points year-on-year due to the lower-margin digital marketing segment shrinking [6]. - The upcoming festive season is expected to boost demand in the core leisure and entertainment business, with historical data indicating significant revenue growth during this period [6]. - The short drama industry remains vibrant, with the market expected to reach 67.79 billion yuan in 2025, growing by 34.40% year-on-year. The company is well-positioned with its Shanghai International Short Video Center, which has developed over 200 high-fidelity indoor scenes [7]. Financial Projections - Projected revenues for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 3.376 billion yuan, 3.584 billion yuan, and 3.854 billion yuan, respectively. The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 546.55 million yuan, 626.38 million yuan, and 741.86 million yuan for the same years [10][11]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be 1.31 yuan, 1.50 yuan, and 1.78 yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 17.80, 15.53, and 13.11 [10][11].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [1]. Core Insights - The company is experiencing short-term pressure on its performance, with a focus on advancing AI and education new business models [4]. - The third quarter of 2025 saw a slight revenue increase of 0.33% year-on-year, but overall revenue for the first three quarters decreased by 1.73% [4][5]. - The company is well-positioned in the K12 education sector, particularly in high school-related products, benefiting from a structural growth in the high school population [5]. - The "Double Reduction" policy continues to support the demand for standardized and systematic educational resources, with the company's well-known brand "Zhihong Optimization" leading in the supplementary education market [5]. - The AI+ education market is projected to exceed 70 billion yuan in 2025, with the company establishing AI+ education as a second growth curve [6]. Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported a comprehensive gross margin of 35.89%, a decrease of 1.05 percentage points year-on-year [7]. - The company expects revenues of 568 million yuan in 2025, with a projected net profit of 46.37 million yuan, corresponding to an EPS of 0.13 yuan [9][11]. - The company’s financial metrics indicate a steady growth trajectory, with expected revenue growth rates of 7.06% in 2025 and 9.29% in 2026 [11][12].

证券研究报告：传媒 | 公司点评报告 发布时间：2025-12-22 股票投资评级 增持|维持 个股表现 -34% -27% -20% -13% -6% 1% 8% 15% 22% 29% 2024-12 2025-03 2025-05 2025-07 2025-10 2025-12 昆仑万维 传媒 资料来源：聚源，中邮证券研究所 公司基本情况 | 最新收盘价（元） | 39.99 | | --- | --- | | 总股本/流通股本（亿股）12.55 / 12.54 | | | 总市值/流通市值（亿元）502 / 502 | | | 52 周内最高/最低价 | 49.98 / 27.23 | | 资产负债率(%) | 17.9% | | 市盈率 | -30.76 | | 第一大股东 | 北京盈瑞世纪软件研发 | | 中心(有限合伙) | | 研究所 分析师:王晓萱 SAC 登记编号:S1340522080005 Email:wangxiaoxuan@cnpsec.com 昆仑万维(300418) 前瞻布局世界模型，持续关注 AI 算力芯片进展 ⚫ 事件回顾 12 月 11 日，AI 视频生成独角兽 Runw ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Insights - The company has recently launched 12 significant new products in the AI computing energy sector, completing its strategic layout for server power solutions [4][5] - The company achieved a revenue of 877 million yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 24.05%, with a net profit of 178 million yuan, up 130.25% year-on-year [6] - Future revenue projections are 1.2 billion yuan for 2025, 1.465 billion yuan for 2026, and 1.756 billion yuan for 2027, with net profits expected to be 222 million yuan, 226 million yuan, and 273 million yuan respectively [7][9] Company Overview - The latest closing price of the company's stock is 57.88 yuan, with a total market capitalization of 7.6 billion yuan [3] - The company has a total share capital of 1.31 billion shares and a debt-to-asset ratio of 15.7% [3] - The company is focused on developing a complete range of power solutions for servers, including various types of chips for different power stages [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected stock price increase of over 20% relative to the benchmark index within the next six months [12]. Core Insights - The company is deepening its vocational education layout and experiencing steady growth in its training business. It has signed a strategic cooperation agreement with local government and educational institutions to create a comprehensive platform for talent cultivation and social services [5][6]. - The vocational education sector is expected to benefit from increasing government emphasis, with the market size projected to grow from 1.5 trillion yuan in 2025 to 2.1 trillion yuan by 2030. The company has established a robust vocational education business system covering various educational levels and training [6]. - The demand for personalized tutoring in junior and senior high school education remains strong, supported by a growing student population. The company’s focus on this demographic is expected to provide growth opportunities in the short term [7]. Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts for the company are as follows: 34 billion yuan in 2025, 41 billion yuan in 2026, and 47 billion yuan in 2027, with corresponding net profits of 2.53 billion yuan, 3.04 billion yuan, and 3.66 billion yuan respectively. The expected earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 2.07 yuan, 2.49 yuan, and 3.00 yuan for the same years [8][10]. - The company’s financial metrics indicate a steady growth trajectory, with revenue growth rates of 25.9% in 2024, 21.7% in 2025, and gradually decreasing to 15.95% by 2027 [11]. Market Position - The company has a total market capitalization of 4.8 billion yuan and a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 25.71, indicating a relatively high valuation compared to its earnings [4]. - The company’s debt-to-asset ratio stands at 79%, reflecting a significant level of leverage in its capital structure [4]. Summary of Financial Metrics - Key financial metrics for the upcoming years include: - Revenue: 27.86 billion yuan in 2024, increasing to 47.11 billion yuan by 2027 - Net profit: 1.80 billion yuan in 2024, projected to reach 3.66 billion yuan by 2027 - EPS: Expected to grow from 1.47 yuan in 2024 to 3.00 yuan in 2027 [10][11].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [2] Core Views - The company has abundant funds that will support its long-term diversified development and continues to fulfill its high dividend commitment [5] - The recent announcement regarding the liquidation of a subsidiary is expected to release funds, enhancing the company's capital structure and resource allocation flexibility [6] - The core school-age population is still on the rise, and with the winter vacation peak approaching, the pressure on the company's publishing business is expected to gradually ease [7] - The company has maintained a stable dividend policy since its listing, with cumulative dividends exceeding 4.5 billion yuan from 2009 to the third quarter of 2025 [8] - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are estimated at 11.1 billion, 11.4 billion, and 11.8 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 832 million, 903 million, and 955 million yuan [9] Company Overview - The latest closing price is 6.71 yuan, with a total market capitalization of 13.1 billion yuan [4] - The company has a total share capital of 1.958 billion shares and a debt-to-asset ratio of 39.7% [4] - The company is the only entity in Anhui province with the qualification to publish textbooks, providing a significant competitive advantage [7]

Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the construction materials industry is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [1] Core Insights - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasized the importance of domestic demand and proposed actions to boost consumption, indicating a potential recovery in the construction materials sector in 2026 due to improved fundamentals and valuations [4] - Cement demand is currently under pressure, with a national decline in demand observed, particularly in the housing market, while infrastructure demand shows regional differentiation. The cement industry is expected to see a reduction in overproduction, leading to improved capacity utilization and profit elasticity [4][8] - The glass industry continues to face demand challenges, with high inventory levels among intermediaries and limited improvement in downstream demand. Price fluctuations are expected to remain low due to ongoing supply-demand pressures [5][13] - The fiberglass sector is experiencing stable demand in certain areas, such as wind power and electronics, with expectations for explosive growth driven by AI-related demand [5] - The consumer building materials sector has reached a profitability bottom, with strong pricing improvement requests from companies, indicating potential for profit recovery in the latter half of the year [5] Summary by Sections Cement - December marks the onset of the off-peak season in the northern regions, with national demand continuing to decline. The housing market remains weak, while infrastructure demand is driven by policy, showing significant regional differences. The civil market exhibits relatively rigid demand [4][8] - In November 2025, cement production was 154 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year decline [8] Glass - The glass industry is under pressure, with traditional peak season orders showing limited improvement and high inventory levels among intermediaries. Supply-side adjustments are expected with the cold repair of five production lines, but overall supply-demand pressures persist [5][13] Fiberglass - Demand in sectors like wind power and electronics remains stable, while traditional demand for coarse sand is slowing. The industry is expected to see growth driven by AI-related demand, with a clear upgrade in product structure [5] Consumer Building Materials - The sector's profitability has reached a low point, with no further downward price pressure expected. Companies are actively seeking price increases, indicating a strong desire for profit improvement [5]

Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the food and beverage industry is "Outperform the Market" [1] Core Insights - The dairy sector has shown strong stock performance due to favorable policies, expectations of a cyclical turning point, seasonal demand release, and capital inflow. The National Healthcare Security Administration aims for "no out-of-pocket" costs for childbirth by 2026, alongside local childcare subsidies, boosting long-term demand for maternal and infant dairy products. The Ministry of Commerce and other departments have issued policies to enhance consumption [4][14] - After previous capacity clearance, the acceleration of dairy cow inventory reduction has stabilized raw milk prices, with expectations of a supply-demand turning point in 2026, leading to increased milk prices. Dairy companies are transitioning towards "nutrition and health," with growing demand for functional dairy products and the upcoming launch of deep processing capacities, opening new growth opportunities [4][14] - As the Spring Festival approaches, demand for dairy products is expected to surge due to family reunions and gift purchases, with rising health consciousness driving sales of organic and functional dairy products [4][14] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The food and beverage sector index (801120.SL) increased by 1.05% this week, ranking 13th among 30 sectors, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.33 percentage points. The current dynamic PE ratio for the industry is 21.75 [19] - Among the 10 sub-sectors, only beer and liquor saw declines, while the highest gain was in baked goods (+8.0%). A total of 107 stocks in the sector rose, with the top five performers being Huanlejia (+44.42%), Zhuangyuan Pasture (+35.96%), Huangshi Group (+21.16%), Junyao Health (+17.02%), and Sunshine Dairy (+14.72%) [19] Company Announcements - Wuliangye held its 12.18 conference, focusing on systematic construction to address market uncertainties. The company is implementing tailored strategies for different partners and is optimistic about sales during the 2026 Spring Festival due to more scientific strategies [5][15] - Mixue Ice Cream opened its first store in North America in Hollywood, Los Angeles, emphasizing a localized and cost-effective strategy. The store offers a wide range of sweetness levels to cater to local preferences, successfully generating social buzz and brand recognition [6][16] - Yanjinpuzi announced a 2025 stock incentive plan, with performance targets set for net profits from 2026 to 2028, aiming for significant growth. The company plans to refocus on supermarkets and leverage its flagship products for growth [7][17][18]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is Neutral, maintained [1] Core Insights - The macro liquidity environment is easing, alleviating funding pressure and providing a stable cost advantage for brokerages' capital-intensive businesses such as proprietary trading and margin financing. The sustained high trading volume in equity funds is expected to support brokerage commission income. The margin financing balance has remained above 2.4 trillion, indicating a transition from "incremental expansion" to "stock optimization" in the use of leverage in the A-share market, suggesting that the previously influxed leveraged funds have not significantly withdrawn but are instead showing a trend of "settling down" [4][6] - The bond market has shown a clear "strong in Shanghai, weak in Shenzhen" pattern, with Shanghai focusing on government bonds and policy financial bonds, which are more attractive for institutional funding due to their pledge financing convenience at year-end. This shift in funding between equity and bond markets may indicate subtle changes in current funding risk preferences [4][7] Industry Fundamentals Tracking - The SHIBOR 3M rate has stabilized at 1.60%, showing a recovery from previous lows and indicating alleviated funding pressure [5][14] - The average daily trading volume of equity funds for the week from December 12 to December 19 was approximately 220.29 billion, reflecting a slight decline from the previous week's average of 238.02 billion, but still indicating that a trillion-level transaction has become the new normal for the A-share market [5][15] - As of December 18, the margin financing balance in the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing markets was 2,499.366 billion, indicating a consolidation phase at high levels since September 2025, marking a transition in leverage use [6][18] - The China Bond New Comprehensive Index closed at 248.8624 points, currently stabilizing after a decline from November's peak, supported by a stable liquidity environment [6][19] - The brokerage sector's valuation has diverged significantly from the overall market, with the Shenwan brokerage index PE rising 5.63% year-to-date, compared to a 20.25% increase in the Shenwan A index, widening the gap to 14.62 percentage points [6][22] Market Review - Last week, the A-share Shenwan Securities II industry index increased by 1.01%, outperforming the CSI 300 index, which declined by 0.28%, with a relative outperformance of 1.29 percentage points [6][26] - For the year, the CSI 300 index has increased by 15.78%, while the brokerage sector has decreased by 0.11%, underperforming by 15.89 percentage points [6][26] - The A-share securities II sector ranked 14th among 31 Shenwan first-level industries last week, underperforming the non-bank financial sector [6][27]