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今创集团(603680):轨交业务中长期发展向好,新布局商业航天赛道带来公司发展新机遇
China Post Securities· 2025-12-24 07:50
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with an expected relative increase in stock price between 10% and 20% over the next six months [6][11]. Core Insights - The company is a leading enterprise in the rail transit equipment sector, specializing in the research, production, sales, and service of rail transit vehicle supporting products, with a comprehensive service capability from design to delivery [4]. - In the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 3.516 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.66%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 493 million yuan, up 69.79% year-on-year [5]. - The establishment of a new aerospace investment company marks the company's entry into the commercial aerospace sector, which is expected to provide new growth opportunities [5]. Financial Performance and Forecast - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 5.537 billion yuan, 6.312 billion yuan, and 6.975 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 23.06%, 13.99%, and 10.51% [6][9]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach 607 million yuan, 669 million yuan, and 746 million yuan for the same years, with growth rates of 100.87%, 10.24%, and 11.52% respectively [6][9]. - The company's price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 17.95 in 2025 to 14.60 in 2027, indicating an improving valuation [6][9].
黑芝麻智能(02533):超越算力,SesameX重塑机器人智能底座
China Post Securities· 2025-12-24 07:32
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Insights - The company has launched the SesameX multidimensional embodied intelligence computing platform, which aims to transition robots from being "operational" to "evolving" [4] - The platform includes three self-developed computing modules (Kalos, Aura, Liora) that are highly integrated and compatible with mainstream interfaces, providing a production-level hardware foundation [4] - The company is focusing on two core scenarios: advanced driving assistance and embodied intelligence, collaborating with strategic partners to innovate applications in these fields [5] - Revenue projections for the company are estimated at 8.1 billion, 14.0 billion, and 20.1 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with net profits expected to be -1.21 billion, -640 million, and -140 million yuan for the same years [6][8] Financial Performance and Forecast - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 805 million yuan in 2025, 1.404 billion yuan in 2026, and 2.007 billion yuan in 2027, reflecting growth rates of 70%, 75%, and 43% respectively [8] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be -1.214 billion yuan in 2025, -636 million yuan in 2026, and -142 million yuan in 2027, indicating a significant recovery trend [8] - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to be -1.89 yuan in 2025, -0.99 yuan in 2026, and -0.22 yuan in 2027 [11] Relative Valuation - The company is positioned to capture significant growth opportunities in the intelligent driving and embodied intelligence sectors, with a focus on advanced functionalities for smart vehicles [9] - The report compares the company with peers in the industry, indicating a favorable outlook for substantial scale growth [9]
黄金牛市的鼓点
China Post Securities· 2025-12-24 06:07
Group 1 - The current mainstream narrative in dollar trading includes "de-dollarization," where central banks are seen as potential long-term buyers of gold, but they did not show significant buying activity during the 30% price surge from August to October 2025 [3][12] - The second perspective focuses on the Federal Reserve entering a rate-cutting cycle, with a close correlation between gold price increases and expectations of rate cuts, although the historical significance of these expectations during the price surges remains unclear [3][17] - The third perspective examines the source of rigid demand from the private sector, suggesting that the influx of funds into gold ETFs indicates a shift away from U.S. Treasury securities due to perceived risks, making gold an attractive alternative [4][26] Group 2 - The report anticipates that the largest opportunity for gold in 2026 may arise in February, coinciding with potential increases in U.S. national debt and traditional peaks in Treasury issuance, which could drive demand for gold [5][30] - The analysis indicates that the relationship between gold price movements and the inventory levels of primary dealers in U.S. Treasuries is significant, suggesting that monitoring Treasury refinancing plans may provide better insights into gold buying opportunities [4][28] - The report highlights that the rigid demand for gold is primarily driven by long-term investors, such as insurance funds and central banks, who require long-duration assets to match their liabilities, especially in light of concerns over U.S. Treasury reliability [29][30]
第六批高值医用耗材国家集采工作正式启动,头部国产企业有望凭借集采中选获得更多市场份额
China Post Securities· 2025-12-23 10:38
Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [1] Core Insights - The sixth batch of high-value medical consumables national centralized procurement has officially started, covering drug-coated balloon and urological intervention consumables, with a market scale exceeding 10 billion [4][9] - The procurement period is set until December 31, 2028, which will have a profound impact on the related industry chain and medical system [9] - Leading domestic companies are expected to gain more market share through successful procurement bids, despite short-term price declines impacting profit margins [6][14] Summary by Relevant Sections Industry Overview - The closing index is at 8269.04, with a 52-week high of 9323.49 and a low of 6764.34 [1] Recent Developments - The procurement document for drug-coated balloon and urological intervention consumables was released, marking the official start of the sixth batch of centralized procurement [4][9] - The procurement will include various high-value consumables, with specific annual demand quantities outlined for each type [10] Event Analysis - The procurement targets include drug-coated balloons for coronary arteries and peripheral blood vessels, as well as various urological intervention devices, with significant annual demand figures provided [10] - The highest effective bid prices will be determined based on provincial procurement prices and other pricing sources [11] Market Implications - The centralized procurement is expected to standardize the procurement and usage of medical consumables, improving industry ecology [14] - Companies with strong production cost reduction capabilities and good demand volumes are recommended for attention [6][14]
宏和科技(603256):高性能电子布快速放量
China Post Securities· 2025-12-23 10:27
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative increase in stock price of over 20% compared to the benchmark index within the next six months [5][12]. Core Insights - The company is experiencing a continuous increase in the proportion of high-performance electronic fabrics, strengthening its core competitive advantages. It leads globally in the technology of ultra-thin fabrics and ultra-fine yarns, with electronic fabric products reaching a minimum thickness of 8 microns and yarn diameters as fine as 4 microns. The company has achieved breakthroughs in various high-value-added and high-functionality products, making it one of the few companies with a complete product line in the industry [3][4]. - The company is set to begin mass production of high-performance electronic fabrics in 2025, following successful customer certifications for its low dielectric constant and low thermal expansion coefficient glass fiber fabrics. The revenue from high-performance electronic fabric products is projected to grow significantly, reaching 13.54% of the main business revenue in the first half of 2025 [3][4]. - The company plans to invest in the construction of high-performance glass fiber yarn production lines and a special glass fiber research center, with total planned investments of 7.2 billion yuan and 0.92 billion yuan, respectively. This will enhance production capacity and ensure a stable supply of core raw materials for high-performance electronic fabrics [4]. Financial Projections - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 11.62 billion yuan, 15.86 billion yuan, and 21.66 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively. The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be 1.88 billion yuan, 3.02 billion yuan, and 4.74 billion yuan for the same years [5][9]. - The company's revenue growth rates are forecasted at 26.24%, 39.27%, 36.48%, and 36.54% for the years 2024, 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [9][14].
信科移动(688387):Q3业绩企稳,卫星互联网核心地位稳固
China Post Securities· 2025-12-23 07:43
证券研究报告:通信 | 公司点评报告 Q3 业绩企稳,卫星互联网核心地位稳固 事件: 发布时间:2025-12-23 股票投资评级 增持|首次覆盖 公司基本情况 | 最新收盘价(元) | 10.21 | | --- | --- | | 总股本/流通股本(亿股)34.19 / 20.17 | | | 总市值/流通市值(亿元)349 / 206 | | | 52 周内最高/最低价 | 10.21 / 4.88 | | 资产负债率(%) | 53.5% | | 市盈率 | -127.63 | | 第一大股东 | 中国信息通信科技集团 | | 有限公司 | | 研究所 分析师:孙业亮 SAC 登记编号:S1340522110002 Email:sunyeliang@cnpsec.com 分析师:刘聪颖 SAC 登记编号:S1340525100001 Email:liucongying@cnpsec.com 信科移动(688387) 公司发布 2025 年第三季度报告,前三季度实现营收 37.63 亿元, 同比减少 9.25%;实现归母净利润-1.65 亿元。 点评: 投资建议: 预计公司 2025-2027 年 EP ...
农林牧渔行业报告(2025.12.12-2025.12.19):猪价低位窄幅震荡,供给压力仍大
China Post Securities· 2025-12-23 06:58
| 行业基本情况 | | --- | | 收盘点位 | | 2969.78 | | --- | --- | --- | | 52 | 周最高 | 3158.8 | | 52 | 周最低 | 2367.56 | 行业相对指数表现 研究所 分析师:王琦 SAC 登记编号:S1340522100001 Email:wangqi2022@cnpsec.com 证券研究报告:农林牧渔|行业周报 近期研究报告 发布时间:2025-12-23 行业投资评级 强于大市|维持 猪价低位窄幅震荡,供给压力仍大 ⚫ 行情回顾:小幅上涨 ⚫ 猪:价格低位窄幅震荡,供给压力仍大 上周猪价继续在 11 元/kg 区间窄幅波动,全周均价 11.25 元/公 斤,较前一周小涨 2.05%。寒潮、腌腊等支撑猪价;但供应端压力暂 难缓解。半年前的仔猪供应增加,意味当前生猪出栏将继续增加。 供给压力仍大,产能去化还将持续。24 年 5 月至 25 年 4 月母猪 存栏增加,对应着 25 年 Q4 及 26 年 Q1 生猪供给继续增加。目前行业 已全面亏损,且猪价或尚未触底,亏损预期还在继续强化。另 10 月 农业部能繁母猪存栏虽超预期下降,但距离 ...
蓝思科技(300433):端侧驱动新增量,机器人、服务器开启布局
China Post Securities· 2025-12-23 05:01
Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [2]. Core Insights - The company demonstrates resilient growth with impressive revenue and net profit performance. In the first three quarters of 2025, it achieved operating revenue of 53.663 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.08%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.843 billion yuan, up 19.91% [5]. - The company has established a comprehensive platform for vertical integration across various materials, including glass, metal, and ceramics, enhancing its collaboration with leading global consumer electronics and smart automotive brands [6]. - The company is expanding its product matrix in the smart automotive sector, focusing on multifunctional glass applications, which are increasingly integrated into vehicles [8]. - Emerging application scenarios such as humanoid robots and AI glasses are identified as strong growth engines, with significant breakthroughs in production capabilities [9]. - The company plans to strategically acquire PMG International Co., LTD to enhance its capabilities in AI computing hardware solutions, which will complement its existing manufacturing strengths [10]. Financial Performance Summary - For 2025, the company is projected to achieve revenues of 90.941 billion yuan, with net profits of 4.971 billion yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 37.17% [11]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) is expected to increase from 0.69 yuan in 2024 to 0.94 yuan in 2025, indicating a positive trend in profitability [11]. - The company maintains a healthy asset-liability ratio of 39.7%, with projections showing a gradual decrease to 35.3% by 2027 [14].
景津装备(603279):压滤机龙头企业,行业需求有望反转
China Post Securities· 2025-12-23 03:27
证券研究报告:机械设备 |公司深度报告 股票投资评级 资料来源:聚源,中邮证券研究所 公司基本情况 | 最新收盘价(元) | 15.10 | | --- | --- | | 总股本/流通股本(亿股)5.76 | / 5.76 | | 总市值/流通市值(亿元)87 | / 87 | | 52 周内最高/最低价 | 18.39 / 14.51 | | 资产负债率(%) | 48.5% | | 市盈率 | 10.13 | | 第一大股东 | 景津投资有限公司 | 研究所 分析师:刘卓 SAC 登记编号:S1340522110001 Email:liuzhuo@cnpsec.com 分析师:陈基赟 SAC 登记编号:S1340524070003 Email:chenjiyun@cnpsec.com 景津装备(603279) 压滤机龙头企业,行业需求有望反转 l 投资要点 公司为压滤机龙头企业,国内市占率超 40%。景津装备股份有限 公司,创立于 1988 年,主要从事过滤成套装备的生产和销售,致力 于为固液提纯、分离提供专业的成套解决方案。公司是中国制造业单 项冠军示范企业,压滤机国家标准主起草人,世界压滤机产销量第 ...
海外宏观周报:通胀与就业同步降温-20251222
China Post Securities· 2025-12-22 13:23
证券研究报告:宏观报告 研究所 分析师:李起 SAC 登记编号:S1340524110001 Email:liqi2@cnpsec.com 研究助理:高晓洁 SAC 登记编号:S1340124020001 Email:gaoxiaojie@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《服务消费稳固,智能经济消费展现高 成长性》 - 2025.12.16 宏观观点 海外宏观周报:通胀与就业同步降温 ⚫ 核心观点: 上周,美国集中补发了一系列因政府停摆而推迟披露的经济数 据,整体指向通胀与就业同步降温。在上一期报告中,我们判断,2026 年美联储降息幅度将超出当前市场隐含的两次降息预期。 股市方面,2026 年宏观环境更有利于中小盘。相较于大型企业, 美国小企业对利率变化更为敏感,其融资与经营对降息的依赖程度更 高。利率,尤其是长端利率的下降,对小企业经营形成实质性支撑。 自 2022 年进入加息周期以来,小企业盈利表现相对于大型企业 明显承压,但近期市场对小企业盈利预期的修正已经缩小了与大企业 之间的差距。并且小企业股价相较大企业已经接近历史最低点,未来 反弹空间可期。类似地,当前小企业和大企业的相对估值也处于历史 低 ...