1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The core background for the bond market in 2026 remains the continuation of the "liquidation phase" of the debt cycle. The bond yield central - downward space is limited, and the risk of a significant upward movement is also controllable [3]. - Inflation is likely to enter a mild recovery phase in 2026. The drag of inflation on nominal growth is expected to disappear, but it is unlikely to drive interest rates up [4]. - Fiscal policy maintains a more proactive stance, with a high supply of government bonds in 2026. The supply shock of government bonds remains the main risk factor in the "low - interest - rate" phase [5]. - Monetary policy continues its moderately loose tone, shifting its focus from quantity to price. There is still room for a small - scale reduction in policy rates [6]. - In 2026, the bond market's capital structure will be dominated by allocation - type accounts. The yield curve is likely to remain steep, and the riding strategy may be the best choice [7]. - For the credit strategy, avoid the re - evaluation of risk premiums and apply the riding strategy to safe assets. Focus on the riding opportunities of medium - region urban investment bonds, infrastructure chains, and cyclical industrial bonds [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Debt Cycle: "Liquidation Phase" Still in Progress - **Leverage Ratio Clearing and Transfer in 2026**: The macro - leverage ratio is in a state of "structural differentiation and overall stability". The de - leveraging process of the household sector is deepening, the enterprise sector's leverage ratio fluctuates at a high level, and the government sector's leverage ratio is expected to rise [23][25][26]. - **Relief of Liability Pressure in Three Sectors**: The liability cost of the household sector has decreased, the enterprise sector's interest - payment pressure has eased but the overall debt pressure remains large, and the government sector's interest - payment pressure is under control [31][35][38]. - **Policy Combination and Asset Prices in the "Liquidation Phase"**: China's debt cycle is still in the "liquidation phase". Fiscal and monetary policies need to maintain a "double - loose" combination. Asset prices should reflect new kinetic energy and improved expectations while considering the background of the debt cycle [43][44][45]. 3.2 Price Trends: Inflation May Enter a Mild Recovery Phase - **Food Prices**: The pig cycle may reach an inflection point in mid - 2026. Food prices are expected to show a trend of "stable first, then rising, with converging fluctuations", and the negative contribution of food prices to CPI is expected to weaken [52]. - **Energy Prices**: In 2026, energy prices are likely to be in a pattern of "strong supply, weak demand, and fluctuating weakly", with limited direct support for inflation [55]. - **Core Inflation**: Policy may drive the central trend to be low in the first half and high in the second half of the year, with a mild recovery throughout the year. The core CPI central may be between 0.8% - 1.2% [59]. - **Industrial Product Prices**: With the implementation of the "anti - involution" policy, the decline of PPI is expected to narrow. The PPI is expected to have an annual central around - 1.95%, and may turn positive periodically [63]. - **Inflation Outlook**: The drag of inflation on nominal growth is expected to be zero. CPI is expected to rise moderately, and PPI's decline is expected to narrow to - 2.0% [66]. 3.3 Fiscal Policy: More Proactive Stance with Maintained Debt - Issuing Scale - **Policy Tone**: Fiscal policy remains proactive in 2026. The general deficit rate is expected to remain around 4%, and the general deficit scale is about 14.55 trillion yuan, remaining stable compared to 2025 [74]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The maturity pressure in 2026 is reduced, and the net issuance is expected to increase steadily. The annual issuance is expected to be 13.9 trillion yuan, and the net financing target is about 6.9 trillion yuan [77]. - **Local Government Bonds**: The issuance scale in 2026 is expected to be 11.12 trillion yuan, slightly increasing. The issuance rhythm may be more front - loaded, and attention should be paid to the progress of debt - resolution work [85]. 3.4 Monetary Policy: Continued Loose Tone with Focus Shifted to Price Regulation - **Policy Tone**: In 2026, the pattern of stable and loose liquidity is likely to continue. The reform of the monetary policy framework will deepen, and the marketization of the interest - rate corridor, policy - rate system, and liability - side price mechanism will further improve [97][98]. - **Price - based Tools**: There is still room for a 20BP reduction in policy rates in 2026, which may guide a new round of adjustments in the interest - rate system [101][102]. - **Quantity - based Tools**: The necessity of reserve requirement ratio cuts has significantly decreased. The regular operations of repurchase and MLF are expected to continue, and the scale of central bank bond - buying operations may decline [105][110][111]. - **Credit and Social Financing**: The de - leveraging cycles of households and enterprises continue, and credit growth faces continuous pressure. Government bond financing and enterprise bond financing expand to offset the weakening of general loan demand [117][120][123]. - **Deposit Situation**: Personal savings continue to grow at a high rate, and non - bank deposits show high - volatility and high - growth characteristics. Unit deposits show differentiated fluctuations [129]. - **Narrow - sense Liquidity**: Liquidity will continue the "low - volatility and stable" characteristics of a downward price central and further converging volatility [140]. 3.5 Institutional Behavior: Allocation - type Accounts Dominate, Trading - type Accounts Under Pressure - **Banks**: In 2025, banks' bond investment thinking has changed systematically. In 2026, the main line of banks' bond investment with an allocation mindset will continue [155]. - **Insurance**: Insurance has a rigid demand for asset - liability duration matching. The allocation of secondary - tier and perpetual bonds has decreased, and the allocation of high - grade credit bonds and policy - based financial bonds has increased [175][180][186]. - **Wealth Management**: The scale of wealth management products is expected to grow in 2026. Asset allocation will focus on "net - value stability", with a preference for short - duration, high - liquidity assets [205][217]. - **Bond Funds**: The pattern of public - offering bond funds is about to change significantly. The trends of amortized - cost and ETF products will continue [218][230][231]. 3.6 Interest Rate Strategy: The Limit of Steepness and the Boundary of Riding - **Curve Shape**: In 2026, the yield curve is likely to remain steep, with the short - end likely to fall and the long - end difficult to decline [237][238]. - **Four Constraints**: Four factors limit the significant upward movement of long - end yields, including the decline of ROIC, the downward trend of long - term loan rates, the neutral stock - bond ratio, and the decline of banks' and insurance companies' liability costs [239][242][244]. - **Interest Rate Strategy**: The riding strategy may be the best choice in 2026, with a focus on the 5 - year Treasury bond [253][254][258]. 3.7 Credit Strategy: Supply Pattern Changes Significantly, Risk Premium Re - evaluated - **Credit Bond Supply**: The issuance of urban investment bonds continues to decline, while the issuance of industrial bonds and quasi - urban investment bonds increases rapidly. Science and technology innovation bonds have become the main incremental source of credit bond supply [263][276][281]. - **Capital Bond Supply**: The issuance of secondary - tier and perpetual bonds continues to decline, and there is still a small gap in TLAC for some banks [290][296]. - **Credit Strategy**: Avoid the re - evaluation of risk premiums in some credit bond sectors. The riding strategy is applicable to short - duration credit bonds, and attention should be paid to the riding opportunities of medium - region urban investment bonds and infrastructure - related industrial bonds [303][316][320].

证券研究报告：建筑材料|行业周报 行业投资评级 强于大市|维持 | 行业基本情况 | | | --- | --- | | 收盘点位 | 5362.85 | | 52 周最高 | 5449.43 | | 52 周最低 | 4167.51 | 行业相对指数表现 研究所 分析师:赵洋 SAC 登记编号:S1340524050002 Email:zhaoyang@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《地产政策托底需求，关注反内卷落地 情况》 - 2025.12.29 建材行业报告 （2025.12.27-2026.01.04） 地产政策持续落地，关注建材龙头估值修复机遇 发布时间：2026-01-05 投资要点 上周财政部、国家税务总局于 2025 年 12 月 30 日联合发布《关 于个人销售住房增值税政策的公告》，明确个人销售住房的增值税征 收细则，个人将购买不足 2 年的住房对外销售的，按照 3%的征收率全 额缴纳增值税，个人将购买 2 年以上（含 2 年）的住房对外销售的， 免征增值税。此次政策能够有效减轻房东经济压力，也使得房屋出售 的成本快速下降、促进市场流通。 地产政策持续释放，一方面托底需求，另一方面 ...

Group 1: Consumer Trends - During the New Year's holiday, inter-regional mobility increased by 19.62% year-on-year, with a total domestic travel expenditure of CNY 847.89 billion, up 6.35% from 2024, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 3.12%[1][12] - The average ticket price for domestic flights reached CNY 684.6, a 9.8% increase compared to 2025, indicating a strong recovery in travel demand[16] - Dining consumption showed robust growth, with key provinces reporting increases of 18% in Zhejiang and 36.5% in Nanjing, while overall dining consumption in Guangxi rose by 5.8%[17] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The manufacturing PMI returned to the expansion zone at 50.1%, reflecting a 0.9 percentage point increase, indicating improved economic conditions[2][18] - The construction sector's PMI rose to 52.8%, a 3.2 percentage point increase, benefiting from favorable weather and ongoing policy support[23] - The service sector's PMI was at 49.7%, showing a slight recovery but still below the expansion threshold, indicating mixed performance across industries[24] Group 3: Policy and Market Outlook - The "Two New" policies are expected to provide support for stable consumption, despite a potential mild contraction in funding scale for 2026[26] - International commodity prices are rising, which may pressure corporate profits and indirectly affect employment, potentially limiting demand recovery[26] - The government has initiated a CNY 295 billion investment plan for key projects, including the Guangzhou New Airport, to stabilize investment growth[26]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [1][6]. Core Insights - The company is actively advancing its 12-inch production expansion, with revenue from manufacturing and services expected to reach 333 million and 288 million yuan respectively in the first half of 2025, reflecting year-on-year growth of 18.69% and a decline of 5.5% [3]. - The company is enhancing its silicon photonics layout, integrating resources from its 8/12-inch CMOS compatible process lines to establish a collaborative development system, achieving significant progress in mass production of silicon photonics technology [4]. - A stock incentive plan has been proposed, aiming to grant 35.09 million restricted shares to up to 300 individuals, with performance targets set for revenue and R&D expenditures from 2027 to 2029 [5]. Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 1.74 billion, 2.57 billion, and 3.43 billion yuan in 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with net profits expected to be -160 million, -1.22 billion, and -1.73 billion yuan [6][10]. - The anticipated profit pressure is attributed to ongoing 12-inch expansion efforts and the associated depreciation from new equipment, with expectations for profit improvement as capacity is gradually released [6]. Stock Performance - The stock has shown a performance trend with fluctuations, indicating a potential recovery phase as the company progresses with its expansion plans [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Insights - The company is expected to benefit from rapid growth in capital expenditures by North American cloud service providers, with a projected increase in global capital expenditures from major cloud service providers reaching over $600 billion by 2026, reflecting a 40% year-on-year growth [4] - The company has successfully ramped up production of its GB300 product, with improvements in yield and testing efficiency expected to positively impact gross margins in Q4 [4] - The demand for high-speed switches, particularly the 800G switches, has surged, with a year-on-year growth of over 27 times in Q3, driven by the increasing computational and bandwidth needs of AI training and inference models [6] Financial Projections - The company’s projected revenues for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are estimated at 882.9 billion, 1,368.1 billion, and 1,915.0 billion respectively, with net profits of 33.4 billion, 54.9 billion, and 86.8 billion [7] - The expected growth rates for revenue are 44.95% in 2025, 54.95% in 2026, and 39.97% in 2027 [9] - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to increase from 1.68 in 2025 to 4.37 in 2027, indicating strong profitability growth [9]

Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [2][11] Core Insights - The report highlights the current closing index at 5159.54, with a 52-week high of 5841.52 and a low of 3963.29, indicating a volatile market environment [2] - The relative performance of the computer industry shows a significant decline of 14% compared to the CSI 300 index over the specified period [4] Summary by Relevant Sections Recent Developments - Meta has completed the acquisition of Manus, a general AI agent company, for several billion dollars, marking it as one of the largest acquisitions in Meta's history [5] - Manus has achieved an annual recurring revenue (ARR) of over 100 million USD within just 8 months of launching its AI agent product, showcasing rapid growth in the AI application sector [6] Market Trends - The report notes that both Zhizhu and MiniMax are preparing for IPOs, with expectations of a growth cycle driven by financing, model iteration, and enhanced agent capabilities in 2026 [7][8] - The domestic AI industry is anticipated to shift its focus from large model technology to the practical effectiveness of agents in achieving commercial success [8] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on various sectors, including Hong Kong internet companies like Alibaba and Tencent, as well as companies involved in agent technology and domestic computing power [9]

Policy Overview - The 2026 policy aims to promote high-quality economic development and consumption upgrades through systematic adjustments in funding, support scope, and subsidy models, characterized by "total adjustment, structural focus, and efficiency improvement" compared to 2025[2][9]. Support Scope - The support scope for equipment updates has expanded to include new projects such as installing elevators in old residential areas and upgrading facilities in elderly care institutions[3][10]. - The scope for consumer goods replacement has contracted from 12 categories to 6 for home appliances, while the number of digital smart products has increased from 3 to 4, adding smart glasses[3][11]. Funding Scale - The first batch of funding for the 2026 replacement policy is set at 625 billion yuan, with an expected total funding of 2,500 billion yuan for the year, a 16.7% decrease from 3,000 billion yuan in 2025[3][13]. - If the funding follows a high-low distribution pattern, the total for 2026 could be around 2,000 billion yuan, reflecting a 33.33% year-on-year decline[3][13]. Subsidy Standards - The subsidy standards have been adjusted to focus on high-efficiency products, with a reduction in support for lower-efficiency appliances and a shift in automotive subsidies towards new energy vehicles[3][14]. - Specific adjustments include a decrease in the subsidy for high-efficiency appliances from 20% to 15% and a tightening of purchase limits to one unit per category[3][14]. Execution Efficiency - The policy will start on January 1, 2026, immediately following the notification on December 30, 2025, improving execution efficiency by eliminating the previous staggered rollout[3][15]. - Emphasis is placed on creating a fair business environment and preventing fraudulent claims, thereby enhancing the effective use of funds[3][16]. Risk Factors - Potential risks include escalating geopolitical tensions, adjustments to the replacement policy rules, and the possibility that the policy effects may fall short of expectations[3][4][17].

证券研究报告：食品饮料 | 公司点评报告 股票投资评级 买入|维持 个股表现 -50% 0% 50% 100% 150% 200% 250% 2024-12-27 2025/3/13 2025/5/29 2025/8/8 2025/10/21 优然牧业 食品饮料 资料来源：聚源，中邮证券研究所 公司基本情况 | 最新收盘价(港元） | 4.94 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 总股本/流通股本(亿股) | 38.93 | | | 总市值/流通市值(亿港 | 192 | | | 元） | | | | 52 周高/低(港元） | 5.12 /1.47 | | | 资产负债率(%) | 71.77 | | | 市盈率 PE | 58.2 | | | 第一大股东 | PAGAC | Yogurt | | | Holding II Limited | | 研究所 分析师:蔡雪昱 SAC 登记编号:S1340522070001 Email:caixueyu@cnpsec.com 分析师:张子健 SAC 登记编号:S1340524050001 Email:zhangzijian@cnpsec.com 优 ...

证券研究报告：固定收益报告 发布时间：2025-12-31 研究所 分析师:梁伟超 SAC 登记编号:S1340523070001 Email:liangweichao@cnpsec.com 研究助理:王一 SAC 登记编号:S1340125070001 Email:wangyi8@cnpsec.com ⚫ 负债端：规模韧性仍在，但成本下行空间有限 保险负债端整体仍具韧性，保费收入持续增长，为行业资产规模 扩张提供了稳定资金来源。2024 年以来，保费收入保持正增长，带动 保险公司资产总额同步上行，负债规模扩张趋势延续。在存款脱媒背 景下，尽管保险预定利率持续下调，但对资金吸引力的边际影响相对 温和，保费增速有所放缓但未出现趋势性回落。负债成本方面，预定 利率下调主要作用于新增业务，存量业务占比仍高，使成本改善传导 偏慢。财险行业综合成本率小幅下行，分规模分化显著，头部机构凭 借规模与费用管控优势维持成本可控，而中小机构成本压力持续上 行。寿险方面，行业打平收益率整体仍处偏高区间，低预定利率新结 构下，头部及保障型寿险公司盈利韧性相对更强，而中小寿险公司仍 面临较高的投资收益门槛。总体来看，负债端对行业形成稳 ...

证券研究报告：电子 | 公司点评报告 股票投资评级 华润微(688396) 资料来源：聚源，中邮证券研究所 公司基本情况 | 最新收盘价（元） | 53.84 | | --- | --- | | 总股本/流通股本（亿股）13.28 | / 13.28 | | 总市值/流通市值（亿元）715 | / 715 | | 52 周内最高/最低价 | 58.65 / 39.30 | | 资产负债率(%) | 16.5% | | 市盈率 | 93.39 | | 第一大股东 | 华润集团(微电子)有限 | | 公司 | | 研究所 分析师:万玮 SAC 登记编号:S1340525030001 Email:wanwei@cnpsec.com 分析师:吴文吉 SAC 登记编号:S1340523050004 Email:wuwenji@cnpsec.com 增持 |维持 个股表现 2024-12 2025-03 2025-05 2025-08 2025-10 2025-12 -18% -11% -4% 3% 10% 17% 24% 31% 38% 45% 华润微 电子 l 投资建议： 我 们 预 计 公 司 2025/2026/ ...