Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The overall situation of the oil and fat market shows that prices are in a state of shock consolidation. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the supply is stable. The Sino - US relationship is tense, which puts pressure on the price of US soybeans. The inventory of Malaysian palm oil is neutral, and demand is improving. Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the B50 plan is expected to be implemented in 2026. The domestic oil and fat fundamentals are neutral, and the import inventory is stable [2][3][4] - The current main logic of the market revolves around the relatively loose global oil and fat fundamentals. There are also some factors affecting the market, with the US soybean inventory - to - sales ratio remaining around 4%, indicating tight supply, while the high historical price of oil and fat, continuous accumulation of domestic oil and fat inventory, weak macro - economy, and high expected production of relevant oils and fats are the negative factors [5] Summary by Related Catalogs Supply - **Soybean - related supply**: - On January 9, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1020000 tons, a decrease of 60000 tons from the previous period and an increase of 14.7% year - on - year [2] - Information on soybean meal inventory is mentioned, but no specific data is provided [8] - Information on oil - mill soybean crushing is mentioned, but no specific data is provided [10] - **Palm oil supply**: - In December, the production of Malaysian palm oil decreased by 5.46% month - on - month to 1.8298 million tons, exports increased by 8.55% month - on - month to 1.3165 million tons, and the end - of - month inventory increased by 7.59% month - on - month to 3.0506 million tons. As of January, the export data of Malaysian palm oil increased by 29% month - on - month. On January 9, the port inventory of palm oil was 736000 tons, an increase of 2200 tons from the previous value and an increase of 46% year - on - year [2][3][4] - **Rapeseed - related supply**: - On January 9, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 250000 tons, a decrease of 20000 tons from the previous value and a decrease of 44% year - on - year [4] - Information on rapeseed inventory is mentioned, but no specific data is provided [21] - **Total domestic oil and fat supply**: Information on total domestic oil and fat inventory is mentioned, but no specific data is provided [23] Demand - **Soybean - related demand**: - Information on the apparent consumption of soybean oil is mentioned, but no specific data is provided [12] - Information on the apparent consumption of soybean meal is mentioned, but no specific data is provided [14] Price Forecast - Soybean oil Y2605 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 7900 - 8300 [2] - Palm oil P2605 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8600 - 9000 [3] - Rapeseed oil OI2605 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8900 - 9300 [4]

沪铝早报- 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 大越期货投资咨询部 ：祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号：Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 铝: 近期利多利空分析 利多： 利空： 1、基本面：碳中和控制产能扩张，国内供应即将到达天花板，下游需求不强劲，房地产延续疲软，宏 观短期情绪多变；中性。 2、基差：现货23350，基差-260，贴水期货，偏空。 3、库存：上期所铝库存较上周涨28369吨至245140吨；中性。 4、盘面：收盘价收于20均线下，20均线向下运行；偏空。 5、主力持仓：主力净持仓多，多减；偏多。 6、预期：碳中和催发铝行业变革，长期利多铝价，宏观情绪多变，铝价震荡运行，假期来临控制仓位 逻辑： 降息和需求疲软博弈 1、碳中和控制产能扩张。 2、俄乌地缘政治扰动，影响俄铝供应。 3、降息 1、全球经济并不乐观，高铝价会压制下游消费。 2、铝材出口 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The current daily production and operating rate of urea are at a high level compared to the same period. With the return of maintenance, the operating rate is expected to continue to rise. The comprehensive inventory is falling, showing an obvious de - stocking pattern. Although it is approaching the Spring Festival, the order demand is still acceptable, with good agricultural reserve demand. In the industrial demand, the demand for compound fertilizers is stable, while the operating rate of melamine is falling. There is a large price difference between domestic and international exports. Recently, the downstream demand is acceptable, but the domestic urea market is still in a state of oversupply. The spot price of the delivery product is 1800 (unchanged), and the overall fundamentals are neutral. The UR2605 contract basis is - 43, with a premium/discount ratio of - 2.4%, indicating a bearish signal. The UR comprehensive inventory is 1.084 million tons (- 0.005 million tons), which is a bullish factor. The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, which is bullish. The net position of the UR main contract is short, and the short position is increasing, which is bearish. It is expected that the UR main contract will fluctuate today [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Overview - **Fundamentals**: Current daily production and operating rate are at a high level year - on - year. With the return of maintenance, the operating rate is expected to continue to rise. The comprehensive inventory is falling, and the de - stocking pattern is obvious. Although it is approaching the Spring Festival, the order demand is acceptable, with good agricultural reserve demand. In industrial demand, the demand for compound fertilizers is stable, and the operating rate of melamine is falling. There is a large price difference between domestic and international exports. Recently, the downstream demand is acceptable, but the domestic urea market is still in a state of oversupply. The spot price of the delivery product is 1800 (unchanged), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4]. - **Basis**: The UR2605 contract basis is - 43, with a premium/discount ratio of - 2.4%, which is bearish [4]. - **Inventory**: The UR comprehensive inventory is 1.084 million tons (- 0.005 million tons), which is bullish [4]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, which is bullish [4]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the UR main contract is short, and the short position is increasing, which is bearish [4]. - **Expectation**: The UR main contract is expected to fluctuate today. The operating rate is at a high level year - on - year. Although it is approaching the Spring Festival, the downstream reserve demand is acceptable, and the inventory is being de - stocked [4]. Factors Affecting Urea - **Likely to Rise**: Inventory de - stocking and good reserve demand [5]. - **Likely to Fall**: Domestic oversupply [5]. - **Main Logic**: International prices and marginal changes in domestic demand [5]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet of Urea | Year | Capacity | Capacity Growth Rate | Output | Net Imports | PP Import Dependence | Apparent Consumption | Ending Inventory | Actual Consumption | Consumption Growth Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2018 | | 22.455 billion | | 19.5681 billion | 4.4838 billion | 18.6% | 24.0519 billion | 0.2366 billion | 24.0519 billion | | | 2019 | | 24.455 billion | 8.9% | 22.4 billion | 4.8794 billion | 17.9% | 27.2794 billion | 0.3786 billion | 27.1374 billion | 12.8% | | 2020 | | 28.255 billion | 15.5% | 25.8098 billion | 6.1912 billion | 19.3% | 32.001 billion | 0.3783 billion | 32.0013 billion | 17.9% | | 2021 | | 31.485 billion | 11.4% | 29.2799 billion | 3.5241 billion | 10.7% | 32.804 billion | 0.3572 billion | 32.8251 billion | 2.6% | | 2022 | | 34.135 billion | 8.4% | 29.6546 billion | 3.3537 billion | 10.2% | 33.0083 billion | 0.4462 billion | 32.9193 billion | 0.3% | | 2023 | | 38.935 billion | 14.1% | 31.9359 billion | 2.9313 billion | 8.4% | 34.8672 billion | 0.4465 billion | 34.8669 billion | 5.9% | | 2024 | | 44.185 billion | 13.5% | 34.25 billion | 3.6 billion | 9.5% | 37.85 billion | 0.514 billion | 37.7825 billion | 8.4% | | 2025E | | 49.06 billion | 11.0% | | | | | | | [9]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 贵金属早报—— 2026年2月13日 大越期货投资咨询部 项唯一 从业资格证号： F3051846 投资咨询证号： Z0015764 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 黄金 1、基本面：AI恐慌升级，美股大跌疑似引发金属的算法卖盘，金价回落；美国三大 股指全线收跌，欧洲三大股指收盘涨跌不一；美债收益率集体下跌，10年期美债收 益率跌7.04个基点报4.100%；美元指数跌0.02%报96.91，离岸人民币对美元升值报 6.899；COMEX黄金期货跌3.08%报4941.4美元/盎司；中性 2、基差：黄金期货1126.12，现货1122.82，基差-3.3，现货贴水期货；中性 3、库存：黄金期货仓单105072千克，不变；偏空 4、盘面：20日均线向上，k线在20日均线上方；偏 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 纯碱早报 2026-2-13 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 主要逻辑和风险点 1、近期企业产线面临恢复，且暂无新增检修预期，预计产量延续高位徘徊。 2、重碱下游光伏玻璃减产，对纯碱需求走弱。 每日观点 纯碱： 1、基本面：碱厂产量高位，整体供给预期充裕；下游浮法玻璃、光伏日熔量整体延续下滑趋势， 纯碱厂库处于历史同期高位；偏空 2、基差：河北沙河重质纯碱现货价1110元/吨，SA2605收盘价为1162元/吨，基差为-52元，期货升 水现货；偏空 3、库存：全国纯碱厂内库存158.80万吨，较前一周增加0.44%，库存在5年均值上方运行；偏空 4、盘面：价格在20日线下方运行，20日线向下；偏空 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空增；偏空 6、预期：纯碱基本面不改疲弱，短期预计震 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of the fuel oil market are mixed. The arrival of low - sulfur fuel oil arbitrage from the Western market in Singapore in February decreased slightly, but the inventory will still increase, pressuring the current market fundamentals. The Asian high - sulfur fuel oil market has cooled after a recent rise due to moderate demand and sufficient supply [3]. - The overnight statement of US President Trump about a tough stance on reaching an agreement with Iran reduced geopolitical concerns, causing a sharp drop in oil prices, and fuel oil followed suit. The expected trading ranges are 2770 - 2820 for FU2604 and 3230 - 3280 for LU2604 [3]. - Market drivers are the resonance of supply affected by geopolitical risks and neutral demand, while risks include the breakdown of OPEC+ unity and the escalation of war risks [4]. 3. Summary by Catalog 3.1 Daily Tips - The price of the FU main contract futures increased from 2857 to 2916, a rise of 59 or 2.07%. The price of the LU main contract futures increased from 3334 to 3379, a rise of 45 or 1.35%. The FU basis increased from 200 to 202, a rise of 1.66 or 0.83%. The LU basis decreased from - 17 to - 45, a decrease of 29 or - 172% [5]. - In the spot market, the price of Zhoushan high - sulfur fuel remained at 488.00, the price of Zhoushan low - sulfur fuel remained at 500.00. The price of Singapore high - sulfur fuel increased from 430.94 to 435.87, a rise of 4.93 or 1.14%. The price of Singapore low - sulfur fuel decreased from 471.50 to 466.89, a decrease of 4.61 or - 0.98%. The price of Middle - East high - sulfur fuel increased from 400.16 to 406.23, a rise of 6.07 or 1.52%. The price of Singapore diesel increased from 644.09 to 650.62, a rise of 6.52 or 1.01% [6]. 3.2 Long - Short Concerns - Bullish factors: Iranian situation turmoil, China's import quota issuance [4]. - Bearish factors: The optimism of the demand side remains to be verified, the upstream crude oil is under pressure [4]. 3.3 Fundamental Data - Fundamentals: The arrival of low - sulfur fuel oil arbitrage from the Western market in Singapore in February decreased slightly, but the inventory will still increase, pressuring the current market fundamentals. The Asian high - sulfur fuel oil market has cooled after a recent rise due to moderate demand and sufficient supply; neutral [3]. - Basis: The basis of Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil is 202 yuan/ton, and the basis of Singapore low - sulfur fuel oil is - 45 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures; bullish [3]. - Inventory: The Singapore fuel oil inventory in the week of February 11 was 2637.9 million barrels, an increase of 85 million barrels; bearish [3]. - Market trend: The price is above the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is upward; bullish [3]. - Main positions: The main positions of high - sulfur and low - sulfur are short, and the short positions are decreasing; bearish [3]. 3.4 Spread Data No detailed analysis provided, only a graph of high - low sulfur futures spread is mentioned [11]. 3.5 Inventory Data - The Singapore fuel oil inventory has been increasing recently. On February 11, 2026, it was 2637.9 million barrels, an increase of 85 million barrels compared to the previous period [3][8].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 白糖早报——2026年2月13日 大越期货投资咨询部 王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询证号： Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 6、预期：外盘创出新低，郑糖近期走势相对偏强。春节长假即将到来，节前规避风险，建议减持 仓位。短期05合约预计在5200-5300区间震荡。 白糖： 2、基差：柳州现货5360，基差106（05合约），升水期货；中性。 3、库存：截至10月底25/26榨季工业库存79.14万吨；偏空。 4、盘面：20日均线走平，k线在20日均线上方，偏多。 利多：26/27年度巴西糖产量可能下降。糖浆关税增加。 美国可乐改变配方使用蔗糖。 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 1、基本面：Covrig Analytics:26/27年度全球糖过剩预计缩减至140万吨，低于 ...

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Views - **For Shanghai Nickel**: The external market has seen a significant decline. In January, production continued to rise, domestic inventories continued to accumulate, and LME inventories declined slightly, with sufficient market supply. The sentiment for nickel ore is bullish, but there is a sharp contrast between strong demand in Indonesia and sluggish trading due to cost inversion in China. Nickel iron prices have started to fall, and the cost line has shifted downward. Stainless steel inventories continue to rise, which may put pressure on prices in the short term. Although the production and sales data of new energy vehicles are good, the overall boost to nickel demand is limited. The basis is positive, LME inventories are increasing, the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward. The main position is net long with an increase in long positions. For SHFE Nickel 2603, on the last trading day before the holiday, focus on controlling positions and conduct intraday trading [2]. - **For Stainless Steel**: The spot price of stainless steel is flat. In the short term, nickel ore prices are rising with strong bullish sentiment, while nickel iron prices have declined, and the cost line has shifted downward. Stainless steel inventories continue to rise. The basis is positive, futures warehouse receipts are increasing, the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward. For Stainless Steel 2603, control positions and focus on intraday trading before the holiday [4]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalog Nickel and Stainless Steel Price Overview - **Futures Prices**: On February 12, the Shanghai Nickel main contract was at 139,610, up 250 from the previous day; the London Nickel was at 17,250, down 815; the Stainless Steel main contract was at 13,970, down 175. The nickel index was at 136,900, down 3,050, and the cold - rolled index was at 13,412, down 142 [8]. - **Spot Prices**: On February 12, SMM1 electrolytic nickel was at 145,350, up 2,750; 1 Jinchuan nickel was at 149,550, up 2,250 with a premium of 8,750; 1 imported nickel was at 140,750, up 3,000 with a discount of 50; nickel beans were at 143,250, up 3,000. Cold - rolled 304*2B stainless steel prices in Wuxi, Foshan, Hangzhou, and Shanghai remained unchanged [8]. Nickel Warehouse Receipts and Inventories - As of February 6, the SHFE nickel inventory was 57,457 tons, with the futures inventory at 51,274 tons, an increase of 2,061 tons and 4,398 tons respectively. On February 12, LME nickel inventory was 285,750 tons (unchanged), SHFE nickel warehouse receipts were 52,027 tons (unchanged), and the total inventory was 337,777 tons (unchanged) [10][11]. Stainless Steel Warehouse Receipts and Inventories - On February 6, the inventory in Wuxi was 546,200 tons, in Foshan was 305,200 tons, and the national inventory was 965,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 12,300 tons. The 300 - series inventory was 632,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 15,300 tons. On February 12, stainless steel warehouse receipts were 55,253 tons, an increase of 762 tons from the previous day [15][16]. Nickel Ore and Nickel Iron Prices - On February 12, the price of red clay nickel ore CIF (Ni1.5%) was 64.5 dollars/wet ton (unchanged), and (Ni0.9%) was 30 dollars/wet ton (unchanged). The high - nickel wet ton price was 1,046.77 yuan/nickel point, up 9.16 yuan, and the low - nickel wet ton price was 3,600 yuan/ton (unchanged) [20]. Stainless Steel Production Costs - The traditional production cost was 13,816, the scrap steel production cost was 13,442, and the low - nickel + pure nickel production cost was 18,216 [22]. Nickel Import Cost Calculation - The converted import price was 135,638 yuan/ton [25].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪锌期货早报-2026年2月13日 大越期货投资咨询部 祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号： Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85225791 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 指标体系 沪锌: 1、基本面： 外媒1月21日消息：世界金属统计局（WBMS）公布最新数据显 示，2025年11月，全球锌板产量为119.7万吨,消费量为116.8万吨,供应过剩 2.9万吨.1-11月,全球锌板产量为1275.61万吨,消费量为1310.65万吨,供应 短缺35.04万吨.11月份,全球锌矿产量为106.9万吨.1-11月,全球锌矿产量为 1214.19万吨；偏多。 2、基差：现货24530，基差-120；中性。 3、库存：2月12日LME锌库存较上日减少1750吨至103500吨，2月12日上期所 锌库存仓单较上日增加725吨至43060吨；中性。 4、盘面：昨日沪锌震荡回落走势，收20日均 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证号：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 玻璃早报 2026-2-13 每日观点 玻璃： 1、基本面：玻璃生产利润小幅修复，冷修不及预期，供给低位；地产拖累下游深加工订单偏弱， 库存同期历史高位；偏空 2、基差：浮法玻璃河北沙河大板现货944元/吨，FG2605收盘价为1065元/吨，基差为-121元，期 货升水现货；偏空 3、库存：全国浮法玻璃企业库存5535.20万重量箱，较前一周增加4.31%，库存在5年均值上方运 行；偏空 4、盘面：价格在20日线下方运行，20日线向下；偏空 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空减；偏空 6、预期：玻璃基本面疲弱，短期预计震荡偏空运行为主。 影响因素总结 利多： 1、玻璃生产利润低位，行业存在进一步冷修预期。 利空： 1、地产终端需求依然疲弱，玻璃深加 ...