交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 甲醇周报 （9.15 -9.19 ） 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 甲醇周评：多空并存下，预计下周国内甲醇市场或震荡整理为主。内地方面，随着部分下游用户节前备 货进入尾声，传统下游需求或弱化，以及假期临近运输受限贸易商持货意愿不强，另外港口高库存对其周边 地区均有一定制约，后期内地甲醇上涨或有一定压力。但同时产区甲醇工厂库存紧张，贸易商做空谨慎，以 及运费上涨对销区价格有一定托底，预计内地甲醇回调空间同样有限。港口方面，短期看，新兴下游烯烃装 置重启和节前备货对市场尚有支撑；中期看，港口累库预计持续至10月，但伊朗开工下降和国内旺季需求有 潜在利多。预期仍好但现实大累库，回调试多。 国内甲醇现货价格 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每周评论 2 基本面数据 3 检修状况 4 观点 ...

证券代码：839979 PVC期货周报 2025年09月15日-09月19日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 1 回顾与展望 2 基本面分析 3 技术面分析 2 1 回顾与展望 一、 表1. 本周重要数据概览 PVC行情概览 3 回顾与展望 本周01合约为上涨态势,周一开盘价为4883元/吨,周五收盘价为4950元/吨，周涨幅为1.37% 供给端来看,据隆众统计，2025年8月PVC产量为207.334万吨,环比增加3.40%;本周样本企 业产能利用率为76.96%,环比减少0.04个百分点;电石法企业产量32.8605万吨,环比减少3.14%, 乙烯法企业产量13.231万吨,环比减少5.16%;本周供给压力有所减少;下周预计检修有所减少， 预计排产少量增加。 需求端来看,下游整体开工率为49.26%,环比增加.76个百分点 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating The document does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - **Industrial Silicon**: The supply side's production has increased, and the demand has also risen. However, considering factors such as inventory and cost, the 2511 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9170 - 9440 [6]. - **Polysilicon**: The supply side's production is decreasing, while the demand side shows signs of recovery. Overall, the demand is on the rise, and the cost support is stabilizing. The 2511 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 51765 - 53635 [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Views - **Industrial Silicon** - **Supply**: Last week, the supply was 92,000 tons, a 2.22% increase from the previous week [6]. - **Demand**: Last week, the demand was 80,000 tons, a 2.56% increase from the previous week. The demand has increased [6]. - **Inventory**: Social inventory was 543,000 tons, a 0.74% increase; sample enterprise inventory was 174,950 tons, a 0.57% increase; major port inventory was 120,000 tons, a 0.84% increase [6]. - **Cost**: In Xinjiang, the production loss of sample oxygen - passed 553 was 3,050 yuan/ton. During the wet season, the cost support has weakened [6]. - **Expectation**: The supply production schedule has increased and is near the historical average. The demand recovery is at a low level, and the cost support has increased. The 2511 contract is expected to fluctuate between 9170 - 9440 [6]. - **Polysilicon** - **Supply**: Last week, the production was 31,000 tons, a 0.64% decrease from the previous week. The production schedule for September is expected to be 126,700 tons, a 3.79% decrease from the previous month [8]. - **Demand**: Last week, the silicon wafer production was 13.92GW, a 0.28% increase from the previous week. The inventory was 168,700 tons, a 1.93% increase. Currently, silicon wafer production is in a loss - making state [8]. - **Cost**: The average cost of N - type polysilicon in the industry is 36,050 yuan/ton, and the production profit is 15,100 yuan/ton [8]. - **Expectation**: The supply production schedule continues to decrease, while the demand side shows continuous increases in silicon wafer, battery cell, and component production. Overall, the demand is recovering, and the cost support is stabilizing. The 2511 contract is expected to fluctuate between 51765 - 53635 [8]. 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data - **Industrial Silicon**: The report provides data on prices, inventories, production, and costs of industrial silicon, including futures closing prices, spot prices, inventory changes in different regions, production volume changes, and cost - profit situations in different regions [14]. - **Polysilicon**: The report presents data on prices, inventories, production, and costs of polysilicon, such as futures closing prices, spot prices, inventory changes, production volume changes, and cost - profit situations [16].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints - This week, the 11 - contract showed an upward trend. The opening price on Monday was 3410 yuan/ton, and the closing price on Friday was 3421 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 0.32%. It is expected that next week, the demand recovery will be limited, the supply will decrease, and the cost support will weaken. The market may undergo a bearish oscillatory adjustment [5][6]. Section Summaries 1. Review and Outlook - **Market Performance**: The 11 - contract rose this week, with an opening price of 3410 yuan/ton on Monday and a closing price of 3421 yuan/ton on Friday, a 0.32% increase [5]. - **Supply**: In June 2025, the total planned asphalt production in China was 239.8 million tons, a 3.5% month - on - month increase and a 12.7% year - on - year increase. This week, the sample capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt was 36.3734%, a 0.06 - percentage - point decrease month - on - month. The national sample enterprise shipment was 31.36 million tons, a 31.10% month - on - month increase. The sample enterprise production was 60.7 million tons, a 0.16% month - on - month decrease. The estimated maintenance volume of sample enterprise equipment was 69.9 million tons, a 2.95% month - on - month increase. Refineries reduced production this week, but supply pressure may increase next week [5]. - **Demand**: The heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 was 34.4%, a 0.01 - percentage - point decrease month - on - month, lower than the historical average. The construction asphalt开工率 was 18.2%, unchanged month - on - month, lower than the historical average. The modified asphalt开工率 was 20.2298%, a 1.71 - percentage - point increase month - on - month, higher than the historical average. The road - modified asphalt开工率 was 30.31%, a 1.69 - percentage - point increase month - on - month, lower than the historical average. The waterproofing membrane开工率 was 36.57%, a 0.50 - percentage - point increase month - on - month, lower than the historical average. Overall, the current demand is lower than the historical average [5]. - **Cost**: The daily asphalt processing profit was - 556.31 yuan/ton, a 3.00% month - on - month decrease. The weekly Shandong local refinery delayed coking profit was 706.6457 yuan/ton, a 12.97% month - on - month decrease. The asphalt processing loss decreased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking decreased. Crude oil weakened, and it is expected that the short - term support will weaken [6]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory was 114.6 million tons, a 2.88% month - on - month decrease. The in - plant inventory was 65.3 million tons, a 4.53% month - on - month decrease. The port diluted asphalt inventory was 24 million tons, a 20.00% month - on - month decrease. All types of inventories continued to decline [6]. 2. Asphalt Futures Market - **Basis Analysis**: The report presents the Shandong and East China basis trends of asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [10][11]. - **Spread Analysis** - **主力合约价差**: The 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contract spread trends of asphalt from 2020 to 2025 are shown [13][14]. - **沥青原油价格走势**: The price trends of asphalt, Brent oil, and West Texas oil from 2020 to 2025 are presented [17]. - **原油裂解价差**: The cracking spread trends of asphalt and different types of crude oil (SC, WTI, Brent) from 2020 to 2025 are shown [20][21]. - **沥青、原油、燃料油比价走势**: The price ratio trends of asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil from 2020 to 2025 are presented [24]. 3. Asphalt Spot Market - **各地区市场价走势**: The price trends of heavy - traffic asphalt in East China and Shandong from 2020 to 2025 are shown [27][28]. 4. Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit Analysis** - **沥青利润**: The profit trend of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 is presented [30]. - **焦化沥青利润价差走势**: The profit spread trend between coking and asphalt from 2020 to 2025 is shown [33][34]. - **Supply - side Analysis** - **出货量**: The weekly shipment volume of asphalt small - sample enterprises from 2020 to 2025 is presented [36][37]. - **稀释沥青港口库存**: The domestic diluted asphalt port inventory from 2021 to 2025 is shown [38][39]. - **产量**: The weekly and monthly production trends of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 are presented [42]. - **马瑞原油价格及委内瑞拉原油月产量走势**: The price trend of Ma Rui crude oil and the monthly production trend of Venezuelan crude oil from 2018 to 2025 are shown [46]. - **开工率**: The weekly开工率 of asphalt from 2023 to 2025 is presented [50][51]. - **检修损失量预估**: The estimated maintenance loss volume trend of asphalt from 2018 to 2025 is shown [54]. - **Inventory Analysis** - **交易所仓单**: The exchange warehouse receipt trends (total, social inventory, and in - plant inventory) of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 are presented [57][59]. - **社会库存和厂内库存**: The social inventory (70 samples) and in - plant inventory (54 samples) trends of asphalt from 2022 to 2025 are shown [62]. - **厂内库存存货比**: The in - plant inventory - to - stock ratio trend of asphalt from 2018 to 2025 is shown [65]. - **进出口情况**: The export and import trends of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 are presented, as well as the import price spread trend of South Korean asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [67][68][71]. - **Demand - side Analysis** - **石油焦产量**: The petroleum coke production trend from 2019 to 2025 is presented [74]. - **表观消费量**: The apparent consumption trend of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 is presented [77]. - **下游需求** - **公路建设交通固定资产走势, 新增地方专项债走势, 基础建设投资完成额同比**: The trends of highway construction traffic fixed assets, new local special bonds, and the year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure investment completion from 2019 to 2025 are presented [80][81]. - **下游机械需求走势**: The sales volume trend of asphalt concrete pavers, the monthly working hours trend of excavators, and the sales volume trends of domestic excavators and road rollers from 2020 to 2025 are presented [84][86]. - **沥青开工率** - **重交沥青开工率**: The heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 trend from 2019 to 2025 is presented [89]. - **按用途分沥青开工率**: The construction asphalt and modified asphalt开工率 trends from 2019 to 2025 are presented [92]. - **下游开工情况**: The开工率 trends of shoe - material SBS - modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, waterproofing membrane - modified asphalt from 2019 to 2025 are presented [95][97]. - **供需平衡表**: The monthly asphalt supply - demand balance table from January 2024 to September 2025 is presented, including production, import, export, inventory, and downstream demand [100]. 5. Technical Analysis - The price and trading volume trends of the BU main contract from August 25 to September 19, 2025, are presented, along with the moving average trends of different periods (5 - period, 10 - period, 20 - period, 60 - period, 120 - period) of the closing price [103].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The 11 - contract of lithium carbonate showed an upward trend this week, and it is expected that the market will experience a bullish and volatile adjustment next week due to the expected decrease in supply, continuous increase in demand, and sustained low costs [4][7][75]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Review and Outlook - **Market Performance**: The 11 - contract of lithium carbonate rose this week, with the opening price on Monday at 71,260 yuan/ton and the closing price on Friday at 73,960 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 3.79% [4]. - **Supply Side**: This week, the lithium carbonate production was 20,363 tons, higher than the historical average. Production from lithium spodumene, lithium mica, salt lakes, and recycling all increased compared to the previous period and were above the historical average [4]. - **Demand Side**: In August 2025, the demand for lithium carbonate was 104,023 physical tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.25%. The predicted demand for next month is 109,470 physical tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.24%. The export volume in August was 307 physical tons, a month - on - month decrease of 16.12%, and the predicted export volume for next month is 410 physical tons, a month - on - month increase of 33.55% [5]. - **Cost Side**: The cost of externally purchased lithium spodumene concentrate is 75,527 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.13%, resulting in a loss of 3,096 yuan/ton. The cost of externally purchased lithium mica is 78,845 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 1.94%, resulting in a loss of 8,402 yuan/ton. The production cost at the recycling end is close to that of the ore end, with average production enthusiasm. The quarterly cash production cost at the salt lake end is 31,745 yuan/ton, significantly lower than the ore end, with sufficient profit margins and strong production motivation [6]. - **Inventory Side**: The smelter inventory is 34,456 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.85%, lower than the historical average. The downstream inventory is 59,495 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.09%, higher than the historical average. Other inventories are 43,580 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.99%, higher than the historical average. The total inventory is 137,531 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.70%, higher than the historical average [7]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - **Price and Basis**: The report presents the trends of the main lithium carbonate futures contract, including the basis, opening price, highest price, lowest price, and closing price [12]. - **Lithium Ore Supply**: It shows the price trends of lithium ore, production of lithium spodumene and lithium mica mines in China, import volume of lithium concentrate, self - sufficiency rate of lithium ore, and inventory of lithium ore at ports [15]. - **Lithium Carbonate Supply**: It includes the weekly operating rate, production, production capacity, import volume, and supply - demand balance of lithium carbonate from different sources [21][27]. - **Lithium Hydroxide Supply**: It shows the weekly capacity utilization rate, production, production capacity, export volume, and supply - demand balance of lithium hydroxide [30][32]. - **Cost and Profit of Lithium Compounds**: It analyzes the cost and profit of externally purchased lithium spodumene concentrate, lithium mica concentrate, and various recycling materials for lithium carbonate production, as well as the profit of lithium hydroxide processing and export [35][37][40]. - **Inventory**: It shows the warehouse receipts, weekly and monthly inventories of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide [42]. - **Lithium Battery Demand**: It includes the price, production, shipment, export, and cost of lithium batteries [46]. - **Ternary Precursor Demand**: It shows the price, cost, processing fee, capacity utilization rate, production, and supply - demand balance of ternary precursors [51][54]. - **Ternary Material Demand**: It includes the price, cost, profit, operating rate, production, import, export, and inventory of ternary materials [56][58]. - **Phosphorus Iron/Phosphorus Iron Lithium Demand**: It shows the price, cost, profit, capacity, operating rate, production, export, and inventory of phosphorus iron and phosphorus iron lithium [60][63]. - **New Energy Vehicle Demand**: It includes the production, sales, export, and sales penetration rate of new energy vehicles [68][69]. 3.3 Technical Analysis The main 11 - contract showed an upward trend this week. The report presents the trading volume, opening price, highest price, lowest price, and closing price of the LC main contract, along with moving averages such as MA10, MA5, MA20, MA60, and MA120 [75].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply side shows that the planned asphalt production in August 2025 was 2.413 million tons, a 5.1% month - on - month decrease and a 17.1% year - on - year increase. The current production reduction by refineries eases supply pressure, but it may increase next week. The demand side indicates that overall demand is lower than the historical average. The cost support is expected to weaken in the short term. It is predicted that the asphalt futures price will fluctuate narrowly in the short term, with the asphalt 2511 contract oscillating between 3399 - 3443 [7][8][9]. - The main logic is that the supply pressure remains high, and the demand recovery is weak. There are both positive factors, such as relatively high - level crude oil costs providing some support, and negative factors, like insufficient demand for high - priced goods and overall downward demand along with strengthened expectations of an economic recession in Europe and the United States [11][12][13]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Viewpoints - **Supply Side**: In August 2025, the total planned domestic asphalt production was 2.413 million tons, a 5.1% month - on - month decrease and a 17.1% year - on - year increase. The current week's sample capacity utilization rate was 36.3734%, a 0.06 - percentage - point month - on - month decrease. The sample enterprise output was 607,000 tons, a 0.16% month - on - month decrease, and the estimated device maintenance volume was 699,000 tons, a 2.95% month - on - month increase. Refineries have reduced production recently, easing supply pressure, but it may increase next week [7]. - **Demand Side**: The heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 was 34.4%, a 0.01 - percentage - point month - on - month decrease; the construction asphalt开工率 was 18.2%, unchanged month - on - month; the modified asphalt开工率 was 20.2298%, a 1.71 - percentage - point month - on - month increase; the road - modified asphalt开工率 was 30.31%, a 1.69 - percentage - point month - on - month increase; the waterproofing membrane开工率 was 36.57%, a 0.50 - percentage - point month - on - month increase. Overall, the current demand is lower than the historical average [7]. - **Cost**: The daily asphalt processing profit was - 556.31 yuan/ton, a 3.00% month - on - month decrease. The weekly Shandong local refinery delayed coking profit was 706.6457 yuan/ton, a 12.97% month - on - month decrease. The asphalt processing loss decreased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking decreased. With the weakening of crude oil, the support is expected to weaken in the short term [8]. - **Basis**: On September 19, the Shandong spot price was 3,520 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was 99 yuan/ton, with the spot price higher than the futures price [8]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory was 1.146 million tons, a 2.88% month - on - month decrease; the in - factory inventory was 653,000 tons, a 4.53% month - on - month decrease; the port diluted asphalt inventory was 240,000 tons, a 20.00% month - on - month decrease. All types of inventory are in a state of continuous destocking [8]. - **Market Trend**: The MA20 is downward, and the price of the 11 - contract closed below the MA20. The main position is net short, with an increase in short positions. It is expected that the futures price will fluctuate narrowly in the short term, with the asphalt 2511 contract oscillating between 3399 - 3443 [9]. - **Positive Factors**: Relatively high - level crude oil costs provide some support [11]. - **Negative Factors**: Insufficient demand for high - priced goods, overall downward demand, and strengthened expectations of an economic recession in Europe and the United States [12]. 3.2 Asphalt Futures Market Analysis - **Basis Trend**: The report presents the historical trends of the Shandong and East China asphalt basis from 2020 - 2025 [18][19]. - **Spread Analysis** - **Main Contract Spread**: The historical trends of the 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contract spreads from 2020 - 2025 are shown [21][22]. - **Asphalt - Crude Oil Price Trend**: The historical trends of asphalt, Brent oil, and West Texas oil prices from 2020 - 2025 are presented [24][25]. - **Crude Oil Crack Spread**: The historical trends of the asphalt - SC, asphalt - WTI, and asphalt - Brent crack spreads from 2020 - 2025 are shown [27][28][29]. - **Asphalt, Crude Oil, and Fuel Oil Price Ratio Trend**: The historical trend of the asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil price ratio from 2020 - 2025 is presented [31][33]. 3.3 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit Analysis** - **Asphalt Profit**: The historical trend of asphalt profit from 2019 - 2025 is shown [36][37]. - **Coking - Asphalt Profit Spread Trend**: The historical trend of the coking - asphalt profit spread from 2020 - 2025 is presented [39][40][41]. - **Supply Side** - **Shipment Volume**: The historical trends of weekly asphalt shipment volumes from 2020 - 2025 are shown [43][44]. - **Diluted Asphalt Port Inventory**: The historical trend of domestic diluted asphalt port inventory from 2021 - 2025 is presented [45][46]. - **Production Volume**: The historical trends of weekly and monthly asphalt production volumes from 2019 - 2025 are shown [48][49]. - **Marine Crude Oil Price and Venezuelan Crude Oil Monthly Production Trend**: The historical trends of Marine crude oil price and Venezuelan crude oil monthly production from 2018 - 2025 are presented [52][54]. - **Local Refinery Asphalt Production**: The historical trend of local refinery asphalt production from 2019 - 2025 is shown [55][56]. - **Operating Rate**: The historical trend of weekly asphalt operating rates from 2021 - 2025 is presented [58][59]. - **Estimated Maintenance Loss Volume**: The historical trend of estimated maintenance loss volume from 2018 - 2025 is shown [60][61]. - **Inventory** - **Exchange Warehouse Receipts**: The historical trends of exchange warehouse receipts (total, social inventory, and factory inventory) from 2019 - 2025 are shown [63][64][66]. - **Social Inventory and In - Factory Inventory**: The historical trends of social inventory (70 samples) and in - factory inventory (54 samples) from 2022 - 2025 are presented [67][68]. - **In - Factory Inventory - Inventory Ratio**: The historical trend of the in - factory inventory - inventory ratio from 2018 - 2025 is shown [70][71]. - **Import and Export Situation** - **Export and Import Trends**: The historical trends of asphalt export and import from 2019 - 2025 are shown [73][74]. - **Korean Asphalt Import Spread Trend**: The historical trend of the Korean asphalt import spread from 2020 - 2025 is presented [77][78]. - **Demand Side** - **Petroleum Coke Production**: The historical trend of petroleum coke production from 2019 - 2025 is shown [79][80]. - **Apparent Consumption**: The historical trend of asphalt apparent consumption from 2019 - 2025 is presented [82][83]. - **Downstream Demand** - **Highway Construction and Related Indicators**: The historical trends of highway construction traffic fixed - asset investment, new local special bonds, and infrastructure investment completion year - on - year from 2019 - 2025 are shown [85][86][87]. - **Downstream Machinery Demand**: The historical trends of asphalt concrete paver sales, excavator monthly operating hours, domestic excavator sales, and road roller sales from 2019 - 2025 are presented [89][90][92]. - **Asphalt Operating Rate** - **Heavy - Traffic Asphalt Operating Rate**: The historical trend of heavy - traffic asphalt operating rate from 2019 - 2025 is shown [94][95]. - **Asphalt Operating Rate by Use**: The historical trends of construction asphalt, modified asphalt, shoe - material SBS - modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, waterproofing membrane - modified asphalt operating rates from 2019 - 2025 are presented [97][100][103]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: The report provides the monthly asphalt supply - demand balance sheet from January 2024 to September 2025, including production, import, export, social inventory, factory inventory, diluted asphalt port inventory, and downstream demand [105][106]

Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The industrial silicon 11 - contract showed an upward trend this week, with a weekly increase of 6.65%. It is expected that next week, the supply - side production schedule will increase, demand recovery will be at a low level, cost support will rise, and the market will experience neutral and volatile adjustments [4][5]. - The polysilicon 11 - contract showed a downward trend this week, with a weekly decline of 1.73%. It is expected that next week, the supply - side production schedule will continue to decrease, demand will continue to recover, cost support will remain stable, and the market will experience bearish and volatile adjustments [7][8]. Summary by Directory 1. Review and Outlook Industrial Silicon - **Price**: The opening price on Monday was 8725 yuan/ton, and the closing price on Friday was 9305 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 6.65% [4]. - **Supply**: This week, the industrial silicon supply was 92,000 tons, a 2.22% increase from the previous week. The sample enterprise output was 43,310 tons, a 3.71% increase. The expected monthly start - up rate is 59.19%, a 3.32 - percentage - point increase from last month [4]. - **Demand**: This week, the industrial silicon demand was 80,000 tons, a 2.56% increase from the previous week. In terms of different downstream sectors, the polysilicon inventory is lower than the historical average, while the organic silicon and aluminum alloy inventories are higher than the historical average [5]. - **Cost**: The production loss of oxygen - blown 553 in Xinjiang is 3050 yuan/ton, and the cost support has increased during the dry season [5]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory is 543,000 tons, a 0.74% increase; the sample enterprise inventory is 174,950 tons, a 0.57% increase; and the main port inventory is 120,000 tons, a 0.84% increase [5]. Polysilicon - **Price**: The opening price on Monday was 53,630 yuan/ton, and the closing price on Friday was 52,700 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 1.73% [7]. - **Supply**: The production last week was 31,000 tons, a 0.64% decrease. The predicted production schedule for September is 126,700 tons, a 3.79% decrease from last month [7]. - **Demand**: The silicon wafer production last week was 13.92 GW, a 0.28% increase; the battery cell production is increasing, and the component production is also increasing. The overall demand is showing a continuous recovery [7][8]. - **Cost**: The average cost of N - type polysilicon is 36,050 yuan/ton, and the production profit is 16,600 yuan/ton [7]. - **Inventory**: The weekly inventory is 204,000 tons, a 6.84% decrease, at a historical low [8]. 2. Fundamental Analysis - **Price - Basis and Delivery Product Spread**: The report presents the trends of the SI main contract basis and the spread between 421 and 553 silicon [14][15]. - **Inventory**: It shows the historical trends of industrial silicon inventory in different regions and warehouses, including delivery warehouses and ports [18]. - **Production and Capacity Utilization**: The report presents the trends of industrial silicon production, monthly production by specification, and sample enterprise start - up rates in different regions [20][21][22]. - **Cost**: It shows the cost and profit trends of 421 silicon in Sichuan and Yunnan and oxygen - blown 553 silicon in Xinjiang [26]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: Both weekly and monthly supply - demand balance tables of industrial silicon are provided, showing the production, consumption, import, export, and balance situations [28][31]. - **Downstream Industries** - **Organic Silicon**: It includes the production, price, cost, profit, and inventory trends of DMC, as well as the price trends of downstream products [34][36]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: It shows the price, supply, inventory, production, and demand (related to the automotive and wheel hub industries) trends of aluminum alloy [44][47][48]. - **Polysilicon**: It presents the cost, price, inventory, supply - demand balance, and the trends of downstream silicon wafers, battery cells, photovoltaic components, and accessories [54][57][60]. 3. Technical Analysis - **SI Main Contract**: This week, the main 11 - contract showed an upward trend, and it is expected to experience neutral and volatile adjustments next week [77]. - **PS Main Contract**: This week, the main 11 - contract showed a downward trend, and it is expected to experience bearish and volatile adjustments next week [79].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 政策面扰动，菜粕维持震荡 （菜粕周报9.15-9.19） 大越期货投资咨询部 王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每周提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 ✸菜粕观点和策略 1.基本面：菜粕探底回升，中加贸易关系仍有变数和技术性逢低买盘支撑，市场回归震荡等 待加拿大油菜籽进口反倾销裁定尚待最终结果。菜粕现货需求短期维持旺季，库存维持 低位支撑盘面，但国庆后菜粕需求逐渐进入淡季和中加贸易磋商仍变数，盘面短期受消 息面影响维持震荡。中性 2.基差：现货2600，基差78，升水期货。偏多 3.库存：菜粕库存1.75万吨，上周1.8万吨，周环比减少2.78%，去年同期2.2万吨，同比减 少20.45%。偏多 4.盘面：价格在20日均线下方且方向向下。偏空 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The soybean meal market is influenced by the stalemate in Sino - US trade negotiations, and the soybean meal is expected to maintain a volatile pattern. The US soybean market is also waiting for further guidance on Sino - US tariff negotiations and the harvest weather in US soybean - producing areas. [10][13] - The domestic soybean meal market may return to a volatile pattern in the short term, affected by factors such as the arrival of imported soybeans, downstream demand, and Sino - US trade relations. [10] - The price of soybeans is affected by factors such as the weather in US soybean - producing areas, Sino - US trade tariffs, and the supply and demand situation at home and abroad. [11] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Weekly Prompt The report focuses on the soybean meal market from September 15 - 19, highlighting the impact of Sino - US trade negotiations and weather conditions on the market. [1] 3.2 Recent News - Sino - US tariff negotiations remain deadlocked, and the US soybean market is waiting for further guidance. The domestic soybean meal market may return to a volatile pattern in the short term. [13] - The arrival of imported soybeans in September remains at a relatively high level, and the inventory of soybean meal in oil mills has increased. [10][13] 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Concerns Soybean Meal - Bullish factors: Uncertainty in Sino - US trade negotiations, low inventory of soybean meal in domestic oil mills, and uncertainty in the weather in US soybean - producing areas. [14] - Bearish factors: High arrival volume of imported soybeans in September, and the expected high yield of South American soybeans. [14] Soybeans - Bullish factors: Support from the cost of imported soybeans and the expected increase in domestic demand for domestic soybeans. [15] - Bearish factors: High yield of Brazilian soybeans and the expected increase in domestic production of new - season soybeans. [15] 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Weather**: The weather in some US soybean - producing areas is currently normal, but there are still short - term uncertainties, with a neutral or bullish outlook. [9] - **Import Cost**: The price of US soybeans is volatile, and the import cost is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger, with a neutral or bullish outlook. [9] - **Oil Mill Pressing**: The demand for soybean meal is expected to be good in the short term, and the oil mill's pressing volume remains high, with a bearish outlook. [9] - **Transaction**: The enthusiasm for downstream forward stocking has increased, and the market transaction is expected to increase, with a neutral or bullish outlook. [9] - **Oil Mill Inventory**: The inventory of soybean meal in oil mills has returned to a medium - high level, and it is expected to remain high, with a bearish outlook. [9] 3.5 Position Data The long positions of the main contract in the soybean meal market have increased, but the funds have flowed out, showing a bullish signal. [10] 3.6 Soybean & Soybean Meal Fundamentals (Supply - Demand Inventory Structure) US Soybean Market The US soybean market is affected by Sino - US trade negotiations and weather conditions. The expected high yield of US soybeans suppresses the upward space of the market, but the uncertainty of weather and trade relations still affects the market. [33] Domestic Soybean Meal Industry Chain - **Arrival of Imported Soybeans**: The arrival volume of imported soybeans in September has decreased from the high level, but it is still relatively high year - on - year. [36] - **Oil Mill Pressing and Inventory**: The soybean inventory in oil mills is at a high level, and the soybean meal inventory has increased slightly. The unexecuted contracts of oil mills have decreased from the high level. [37][39] - **Soybean Meal Transaction**: The procurement of the domestic downstream has decreased slightly, but the提货 volume remains high. [45] - **Pig Farming Inventory**: The pig inventory is on the rise, the sow inventory is flat year - on - year and has decreased slightly month - on - month. The pig price has recently declined again, and the profit of pig farming has deteriorated. [47][49][53] Downstream Demand The demand for soybean meal in September is a key factor to watch, but the price is mainly determined by the supply side. [55] 3.7 Trading Strategies Soybean Meal - **Futures**: The US soybeans are expected to fluctuate above the 1000 - point mark in the short term, and the soybean meal is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger. The M2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2900 - 3100, and short - term range trading is recommended. [17] - **Options**: Sell out - of - the - money put options. [19] Soybean - **Futures**: The A2511 contract of soybean is expected to fluctuate in the range of 3800 - 4000, and short - term range trading is recommended. [20] - **Options**: Wait and see. [20] 3.8 Meal Market Structure - The basis of soybean meal has narrowed slightly, and the spot price is relatively stable while the futures price has declined. [58] - The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal has fluctuated slightly, and the price difference of the 2601 contract has oscillated at a low level. [60] 3.9 Technical Analysis Soybean - The soybean futures are weakly volatile, affected by the US soybean trend and the relatively stable domestic soybean spot price. Technical indicators such as KDJ and MACD are in a volatile adjustment stage. [65] Soybean Meal - The soybean meal futures have rebounded after reaching the bottom and are in a volatile range, affected by the US soybean and rapeseed meal trends and domestic demand expectations. Technical indicators are also in a volatile adjustment stage. [67] 3.10 Next Week's Concerns - The most important factors are the growth weather in US soybean - producing areas, Sino - US trade relations and the follow - up of the tariff war, and the arrival and operation of imported soybeans in China. [70] - The secondary important factors are the domestic demand for soybean meal, the inventory of oil mills, and downstream procurement. [71] - Other important factors include macro - economic factors and international conflicts such as the Russia - Ukraine and Israel - Palestine conflicts. [71]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 贵金属早报—— 2025年9月22日 大越期货投资咨询部 项唯一 从业资格证号： F3051846 投资咨询证号： Z0015764 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 黄金 1、基本面：降息落地盈利离场影响消退，美股"三巫日"成交量激增，金价回升； 美国三大股指齐创收盘新高，欧洲三大股指全线小幅收跌；美债收益率集体上涨， 10年期涨2.49个基点报4.125%；美元指数涨0.30%报97.66，离岸人民币对美元贬值 报7.1196；COMEX黄金期货收涨1.12%报3719.4美元/盎司；中性 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 5、主力持仓：主力净持仓多，主力多减；偏多 6、预期：今日关注中国9月LPR、国新办新闻发布会、美联储、欧央行和英央行官员 讲话。美联储降息落地盈利离场影响消退，宽松乐观预期回归，叠加中 ...