交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 菜粕早报 2025-09-23 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 ✸菜粕观点和策略 菜粕RM2601：2480至2540区间震荡 1.基本面：菜粕冲高回落，中加贸易关系仍有变数和技术性震荡整理，市场回归震荡等待加 拿大油菜籽进口反倾销裁定尚待最终结果。菜粕现货需求短期维持旺季，库存维持低位 支撑盘面，但国庆后菜粕需求逐渐进入淡季和中加贸易磋商仍变数，盘面短期受消息面 影响维持震荡。中性 2.基差：现货2620，基差92，升水期货。偏多 3.库存：菜粕库存1.75万吨，上周1.8万吨，周环比减少2.78%，去年同期2.2万吨，同比减 少20.45%。偏多 4.盘面：价格在20日均线下方 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 PTA&MEG早报-2025年9月23日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 投资咨询资格证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 今日关注 基本面数据 5 PTA 每日观点 PTA： 1、基本面：日PTA期货低开低走，现货市场商谈氛围一般，现货基差偏弱，零星聚酯工厂有递盘。个别主流供应商有出货。9月 货在01贴水75~86附近有成交，价格商谈区间在4490~4535附近。10月商谈不多，少量在01-60附近有成交。今日主流现货基差在 01-84。中性 6、预期：PTA期货盘面跟随成本端低开低走，PTA自身装置重启降负并行，目前对市场影响有限，现货基差偏弱运行，预计短期 内PTA现货价格更多受成本端影响震荡运行，关注上下游装置变动及聚酯产销。 2、基差：现货4515，01合约基差-71，盘面升水 中性 3 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 尿素早报 2025-9-23 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 • 尿素概述： • 1. 基本面：近期尿素盘面震荡偏弱。当前日产及开工率略有回落仍处于偏高位置，库存整体 高位。需求端，工业需求中复合肥开工回升，三聚氰胺开工中性，农业需求进入淡季。国内尿素 整体供过于求仍明显，理论出口利润继续创新高，但受政策等原因影响出口数量回落。交割品现 货1700（-20），基本面整体偏空； • 2. 基差： UR2601合约基差40，升贴水比例2.4%，偏多； • 3. 库存：UR综合库存142.1万吨（+5.1），偏空； • 4. 盘面： UR主力合约20日均线向下，收盘价位于20日线下，偏空； • 5. 主力持仓：UR主力持仓净多，增多，偏多； • 6. 预期：尿素主力合约盘面震荡偏弱， ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-09-23原油早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 原油2511： 4.盘面：20日均线偏下，价格在均线下方；偏空 1.基本面：根据联合组织数据倡议(JODI)公布的数据，沙特阿拉伯7月原油出口量降至599.4万桶/日，创 下了四个月以来的最低水平；官员表示，伊拉克石油部将于周二开始重启库尔德斯坦地区的原油出口 程序，预计将在48小时内恢复通过管道向土耳其出口原油；科威特石油部长表示，科威特当前原油产 能已达到320万桶/日，这是该国十余年来公布的最高产能评估数据；中性 2.基差：9月22日，阿曼原油现货价为68.99元/桶，卡塔尔海洋原油现货价为67.82元/桶，基差30元/ 桶，现货升水期货；偏多 3.库存：美国截至9月12日当周API原油库存减少342万桶，预期 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 纯碱早报 2025-9-23 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 纯碱： 1、基本面：碱厂检修较少，供给仍处高位；下游浮法玻璃日熔量平稳，光伏日熔量延续下滑趋 势，终端需求一般，纯碱厂库处于历史同期高位；偏空 2、基差：河北沙河重质纯碱现货价1200元/吨，SA2601收盘价为1293元/吨，基差为-93元，期货 升水现货；偏空 3、库存：全国纯碱厂内库存175.56万吨，较前一周减少2.33%，库存在5年均值上方运行；偏空 4、盘面：价格在20日线下方运行，20日线向下；偏空 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空增；偏空 6、预期：纯碱基本面疲弱，短期预计震荡偏弱运行为主。 影响因素总结 利多： 1、年内检修高峰期来临，产量预计将有所下滑。 利空： 1、23年以来，纯碱产能大 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The glass market has a weak fundamental situation, and it is expected to mainly show a weak and volatile trend in the short term due to the imbalance between supply and demand [2][5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily View - The glass production profit has declined, with a high level of cold repair in the industry. The start - up rate and production have dropped to historical lows. Downstream deep - processing orders are generally weak, and real - estate terminal demand is sluggish [2]. - The basis shows that the futures price is at a premium to the spot price. The national inventory of float glass enterprises is above the 5 - year average, although it decreased by 1.10% compared to the previous week. The price is above the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is rising. The main positions are net short, and short positions are increasing [2]. - Overall, the glass fundamentals are weak, and it is expected to be mainly volatile and weak in the short term [2]. 3.2 Influencing Factors - **Likely Benefits**: Under the influence of the "anti - involution" policy, there is an expectation of capacity clearance in the float glass industry [3]. - **Likely Detriments**: Real - estate terminal demand remains weak, and the number of orders from glass deep - processing enterprises is at a historical low. The capital collection in the deep - processing industry is not optimistic, and traders and processors are cautious. The market sentiment of "anti - involution" has faded [4]. 3.3 Main Logic The supply of glass has declined to a relatively low level in the same period, but terminal demand is weak, and inventory has rebounded. Therefore, the glass is expected to be mainly volatile and weak [5]. 3.4 Glass Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract decreased by 1.40% to 1199 yuan/ton, the spot price of large boards in Shahe remained unchanged at 1080 yuan/ton, and the basis of the main contract increased by - 12.50% to - 119 yuan/ton [6]. 3.5 Glass Spot Market The market price of 5mm white glass large boards in Hebei Shahe, the spot benchmark, was 1080 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [11]. 3.6 Fundamental Analysis - Cost Side No specific content on the cost - side situation is provided other than the repeated mention of glass production profit. 3.7 Fundamental Analysis - Production - The number of operating float glass production lines in the country is 225, with a start - up rate of 76.01%, and the number of operating production lines is at a historical low in the same period [22]. - The daily melting volume of float glass in the country is 160,200 tons, and the production capacity is at the lowest level in the same period in history, but it has stabilized and rebounded [24]. 3.8 Fundamental Analysis - Demand - In June 2025, the apparent consumption of float glass was 4.634 million tons [28]. - The report also mentions the need to analyze factors such as housing sales, new construction, construction, and completion areas, as well as the start - up and order status of downstream processing plants, but specific influencing content is not provided. 3.9 Fundamental Analysis - Inventory The national inventory of float glass enterprises is 60.908 million weight boxes, a decrease of 1.10% compared to the previous week, and the inventory is above the 5 - year average [43]. 3.10 Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet The report provides the annual supply - demand balance sheet of float glass from 2017 to 2024E, including data on production, apparent supply, consumption, production growth rate, consumption growth rate, and net import ratio [44].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪锌期货早报-2025年9月23日 大越期货投资咨询部 祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号： Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85225791 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 指标体系 沪锌: 1、基本面：外媒9月17日消息：世界金属统计局（WBMS）公布最新数据显 示，2025年7月，全球锌板产量为115.15万吨,消费量为116.29万吨,供应短 缺1.13万吨.1-7月,全球锌板产量为794.52万吨,消费量为815.85万吨,供应 短缺21.33万吨.7月份,全球锌矿产量为106.56万吨.1-7月,全球锌矿产量为 734.37万吨；偏多。 2、基差：现货21990，基差-100；中性。 3、库存：9月22日LME锌库存较上日减少1000吨至46825吨，9月22日上期所 锌库存仓单较上日增加2523吨至55054吨；中性。 4、盘面：昨日沪锌震荡反弹走势，收20日均线之下, ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Supply: In August 2025, the total planned production volume of domestic asphalt was 2.413 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.1% and a year - on - year increase of 17.1%. This week, the sample capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt decreased, and the refineries reduced production. Next week, the supply pressure may increase [7]. - Demand: The current overall demand is lower than the historical average. The heavy - traffic asphalt, building asphalt, and road - modified asphalt开工率 are lower than the historical average, while the modified asphalt开工率 is higher than the historical average [7]. - Cost: The daily asphalt processing profit decreased by 3.00% month - on - month, and the weekly Shandong refinery delayed coking profit decreased by 12.97% month - on - month. The asphalt processing loss decreased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking decreased. Crude oil weakened, and the short - term support is expected to weaken [8]. - Basis: On September 19th, the Shandong spot price was 3,520 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was 99 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [8]. - Inventory: Social inventory, factory inventory, and port diluted asphalt inventory are all in a state of continuous destocking [8]. - Expectation: It is expected that the asphalt futures price will fluctuate narrowly in the short term, and the asphalt 2511 will fluctuate in the range of 3,399 - 3,443 [9]. - Influential factors: Bullish factors include relatively high crude oil costs; bearish factors include insufficient demand for high - priced goods and overall downward demand with strengthened expectations of an economic recession in Europe and the United States [11][12]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Viewpoint - Supply: The refineries' recent production scheduling has reduced production, alleviating supply pressure. However, supply pressure may increase next week [7]. - Demand: The overall demand recovery is less than expected and remains sluggish [9]. - Cost: Crude oil has weakened, and cost support has weakened in the short term [9]. - Inventory: Inventory remains flat [9]. - Market trend: It is expected that the futures price will fluctuate narrowly in the short term [9]. 3.2 Asphalt Market Overview - Futures prices: Most contract prices showed a downward trend, such as the 01 - contract price decreased by 0.50% [16]. - Inventory: Social inventory decreased by 2.88% month - on - month, factory inventory decreased by 4.53% month - on - month, and port diluted asphalt inventory decreased by 20.00% month - on - month [16]. - Production and sales: The sample enterprise output decreased by 0.16% month - on - month, and the sample enterprise shipment volume increased by 31.10% month - on - month [16]. 3.3 Asphalt Futures Market - Basis and Spread Analysis - Basis: The Shandong spot price was 3,520 yuan/ton on September 19th, and the 11 - contract basis was 99 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [8]. - Spread: Analyzed the spread trends of different contracts (such as 1 - 6, 6 - 12 contracts), the price trends of asphalt and crude oil, the cracking spread of crude oil, and the price - to - price ratio trends of asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil [21][24][27][31]. 3.4 Asphalt Spot Market - Market Price Trends in Various Regions - Analyzed the price trends of asphalt in different regions, including Shandong, East China, and South China [34]. 3.5 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - Profit analysis: Analyzed the profit trends of asphalt and the profit spread trends between coking and asphalt [36][39]. - Supply - side analysis: Analyzed multiple aspects such as shipment volume, diluted asphalt port inventory, production volume, Ma Rui crude oil price, Venezuelan crude oil monthly production, refinery asphalt production,开工率, and maintenance loss volume [43][45][48]. - Inventory analysis: Analyzed exchange warehouse receipts, social inventory, factory inventory, and factory inventory inventory - to - sales ratio [63][67][70]. - Import and export analysis: Analyzed the export and import trends of asphalt and the import price spread trends of South Korean asphalt [73][76][78]. - Demand - side analysis: Analyzed aspects such as petroleum coke production, apparent consumption, downstream demand (including highway construction, machinery demand, etc.), asphalt开工率, and downstream开工情况 [79][82][85]. - Supply - demand balance sheet: Presented the monthly asphalt supply - demand balance sheet from January 2024 to September 2025, including production volume, import volume, export volume, inventory, and downstream demand [105][106].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-09-22原油早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 原油2511： 1.基本面：投资者对需求前景的担忧拖累油价，随着夏季消费旺季结束，炼油厂对原油的需求将持续 下降。炼厂检修季将进一步降低需求，炼油厂通常在春秋两季关闭生产装置进行大规模检修；据知情 人士透露，欧盟正考虑针对其剩余的俄罗斯石油进口采取贸易措施。该联盟执行机构正在审查通过 "友谊"输油管道向匈牙利和斯洛伐克输送的俄油持续进口情况；中性 2.基差：9月19日，阿曼原油现货价为69.51元/桶，卡塔尔海洋原油现货价为68.81元/桶，基差30.18元/ 桶，现货升水期货；偏多 3.库存：美国截至9月12日当周AP ...

原油周报 (9.15-9.19) 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 CONTENTS 目 录 1 回顾 2 相关资讯 3 展望 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 回顾与要闻 上周，原油冲高回落，纽约商品交易所主力轻质原油期货价格收于每桶62.36美元，周涨0.40%；伦敦布伦特原油主力期货价格收于每桶66.05美 元，周跌0.60%；中国上海原油期货收于每桶483.6元，周涨1.75%。周初乌克兰对俄罗斯石油装运港口袭击影响渐显，三位业内人士称，俄罗斯 石油管道垄断企业俄罗斯国家石油运输公司已警告生产商，在港口和炼油厂遭袭后，他们可能不得不减产。市场机构预计，8月份以及本月迄今 为止，袭击已导致俄罗斯炼油产能减少约30万桶/日。此外，对俄制裁方面，美国总统特朗普表示，美国准备对俄罗斯 ...