Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - Rapeseed meal RM2605 will oscillate in the range of 2290 - 2350. Affected by the improvement of China - Canada trade relations, it will be weak in the short - term and maintain range - bound in the medium - term. After the overall negative factors are digested, it will still maintain an oscillating pattern [9]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Prompt - Rapeseed meal RM2605 oscillates in the range of 2290 - 2350. Its fundamental situation is neutral, with basis indicating a premium, low inventory being positive, price above the 20 - day moving average, but an increase in short positions of the main force and capital outflow being negative [9]. 2. Recent News - Domestic aquaculture has entered the off - season, and the supply in the spot market is expected to be tight in the short - term. The demand is decreasing, suppressing the market. The export of Canadian rapeseed is affected by trade issues, reducing the expected domestic supply. With the visit of the Canadian Prime Minister to China, China - Canada trade relations have improved, and the import of Canadian rapeseed is expected to resume. Global rapeseed production has increased this year. The impact of the Russia - Ukraine conflict on rapeseed production is relatively offset, but geopolitical conflicts may still support commodities [11]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors - Bullish factors: Good demand for Chinese rapeseed meal is expected after the Spring Festival, and oil mills have no pressure on rapeseed meal inventory. Bearish factors: Domestic demand for rapeseed meal is currently in the off - season, and China's import of Canadian rapeseed is about to resume. The current main logic is that the market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expected arrival of imported Canadian rapeseed [12]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Trading data**: From February 4th to 12th, the average transaction price of rapeseed meal was around 2430 - 2450 yuan, and the average transaction price of soybean meal was around 3117 - 3151 yuan. The average price difference between soybean and rapeseed meal was around 667 - 701 yuan [13]. - **Price data**: From February 5th to 12th, the price of rapeseed meal futures (main 2605 contract) rose from 2238 to 2302 yuan, and the spot price rose from 2430 to 2450 yuan [15]. - **Warehouse receipt data**: From February 4th to 12th, the rapeseed meal warehouse receipts were all 0 [17]. - **Supply - demand balance data**: In the domestic rapeseed supply - demand balance sheet from 2016 to 2025, the harvest area, output, and inventory consumption ratio have changed over the years. In the domestic rapeseed meal supply - demand balance sheet during the same period, the output, total supply, and inventory consumption ratio also show different trends [19][21]. 5. Position Data - Not provided in a summarized way, but it is mentioned that the short positions of the main force have increased and the capital has flowed out [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report Industrial Silicon - Supply decreased last week with a 13.41% week - on - week reduction to 71,000 tons; demand also decreased by 20.00% week - on - week to 60,000 tons, remaining sluggish. - Polycrystalline silicon inventory is at a high level of 349,000 tons; organic silicon inventory is at a low level of 47,200 tons with a production profit of 2,570 yuan/ton and a comprehensive开工率 of 64.02%, flat week - on - week and below the historical average. - Aluminum alloy ingot inventory is at a high level of 67,400 tons. - In Xinjiang, the production cost of sample oxygen - passed 553 silicon decreased by 0.00% week - on - week to 9,769.7 yuan/ton, and the cost support is rising during the dry season. - On February 12th, the spot price of non - oxygen - passed silicon in East China was 9,200 yuan/ton, with a basis of 865 yuan/ton for the 05 contract, indicating a spot premium over the futures. - Social inventory increased by 1.44% week - on - week to 562,000 tons; sample enterprise inventory decreased by 2.52% week - on - week to 200,800 tons; main port inventory decreased by 1.44% week - on - week to 136,000 tons. - The MA20 is downward, and the 05 contract price closed below the MA20. - The main position is net short, with a decrease in short positions. - It is expected that industrial silicon 2605 will fluctuate in the range of 8,240 - 8,430 [6]. Polycrystalline Silicon - Supply remained flat last week, with a production of 20,100 tons. The scheduled production for February is expected to be 79,700 tons, a 20.93% decrease compared to the previous month. - Demand is in a continuous decline. The production of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components is all decreasing. - The average cost of N - type polycrystalline silicon materials is 40,830 yuan/ton, with a production profit of 11,420 yuan/ton. - On February 12th, the price of N - type dense materials was 52,250 yuan/ton, with a basis of 4,235 yuan/ton for the 05 contract, indicating a spot premium over the futures. - Weekly inventory is at a historical high of 349,000 tons, increasing by 2.34% week - on - week. - The MA20 is upward, and the 05 contract price closed below the MA20. - The main position is net long, with a decrease in long positions. - It is expected that polycrystalline silicon 2605 will fluctuate in the range of 47,940 - 50,090 [8]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views Industrial Silicon - Bullish factors: Rising cost support and manufacturers' plans for production cuts. - Bearish factors: Slow recovery of post - holiday demand and a supply - strong and demand - weak situation in the downstream polycrystalline silicon market. - Main logic: Capacity clearance, cost support, and demand increment [11][12]. Polycrystalline Silicon - Supply is expected to continue to decrease, and demand is in a continuous recession. Cost support remains stable [8]. 3.2 Fundamental/Positioning Data Industrial Silicon - **Supply - side**: Last week's supply was 71,000 tons, with a 13.41% week - on - week decrease. - **Demand - side**: Last week's demand was 60,000 tons, with a 20.00% week - on - week decrease. - **Inventory**: Social inventory increased by 1.44% week - on - week to 562,000 tons; sample enterprise inventory decreased by 2.52% week - on - week to 200,800 tons; main port inventory decreased by 1.44% week - on - week to 136,000 tons. - **Cost**: In Xinjiang, the production cost of sample oxygen - passed 553 silicon decreased by 0.00% week - on - week to 9,769.7 yuan/ton. - **Basis**: On February 12th, the basis of the 05 contract was 865 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures. - **Positioning**: The main position is net short, with a decrease in short positions [6]. Polycrystalline Silicon - **Supply - side**: Last week's production was 20,100 tons, remaining flat week - on - week. The scheduled production for February is 79,700 tons, a 20.93% decrease compared to the previous month. - **Demand - side**: The production of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components is all decreasing. - **Inventory**: Weekly inventory is 349,000 tons, increasing by 2.34% week - on - week, at a historical high. - **Cost**: The average cost of N - type polycrystalline silicon materials is 40,830 yuan/ton, with a production profit of 11,420 yuan/ton. - **Basis**: On February 12th, the basis of the 05 contract was 4,235 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures. - **Positioning**: The main position is net long, with a decrease in long positions [8]. 3.3 Market Overview Industrial Silicon - Futures prices of most contracts decreased slightly. For example, the 01 contract decreased by 1.27% to 8,930 yuan/ton. - Spot prices of various types of silicon remained stable, such as the price of non - oxygen - passed 553 silicon in East China at 9,200 yuan/ton. - Inventory data showed a mixed trend, with social inventory increasing and sample enterprise inventory and main port inventory decreasing [15]. Polycrystalline Silicon - Futures prices of most contracts were relatively stable, with only a few showing small declines. - The prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components remained stable. - Weekly silicon wafer production increased by 5.74% to 12.9 GW, and weekly silicon wafer inventory decreased by 22.06% to 26.5 GW. - Weekly battery cell inventory increased by 1.53% to 9.31 GW. - Monthly component production decreased by 9.04% to 35.2 GW, domestic inventory decreased by 51.73% to 24.76 GW, and European inventory increased by 9.27% to 34.2 GW [17]. 3.4 Other Aspects - The report also includes various trend charts and data on industrial silicon and polycrystalline silicon, such as price - basis and delivery product spread trends, inventory trends, production and capacity utilization trends, cost trends, and downstream industry trends (including organic silicon, aluminum alloy, and polycrystalline silicon downstream industries) [19][22][25]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The domestic methanol market is expected to fluctuate within a range this week as the holiday approaches. The inland market is entering the pre - holiday rest period, with demand shrinking and supply remaining sufficient. The port market is expected to oscillate at the bottom before the festival, and it is recommended to reduce risk exposure. The price of MA2605 is expected to fluctuate between 2210 - 2270 [5]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - The fundamentals of methanol 2605 suggest that the inland methanol market is in a pre - holiday rest period. Demand from traditional downstream devices like formaldehyde is decreasing, and supply is sufficient with low inventory in some enterprises. The port market has experienced significant price fluctuations and is now in a range - bound state. The expected price range for MA2605 this week is 2210 - 2270 [5]. - The basis shows that the spot price in Jiangsu is 2220 yuan/ton, with a 05 - contract basis of - 11, indicating that the spot is at a discount to the futures [5]. - As of February 12, 2026, the total social inventory of methanol in East and South China ports is 94.27 tons, a decrease of 1.87 tons from the previous period. The total available methanol in coastal areas is 46.08 tons, a decrease of 0.31 tons [5]. - The 20 - day moving average is flat, and the price is below the average [5]. - The main positions are net short, with short positions increasing [5]. 2. Multi - and Short - Term Concerns - **Likely Positive Factors**: Some devices are shut down or operating at reduced capacity; Iranian methanol production is at a low level, and imports in February are expected to shrink; previous inventory in production areas is low, and some enterprises are even restricting sales; some downstream users are still stocking up before the festival [6]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: Domestic methanol production is at a high level, with no supply shortage; as the Spring Festival approaches, downstream formaldehyde production is shutting down, weakening demand for raw materials; the main olefin devices at ports are shut down, significantly weakening local demand; most downstream users have completed pre - holiday stocking, leading to a short - term decline in demand [7]. 3. Fundamental Data - **Price Data**: In the spot market, the price of thermal coal in the Bohai Rim is 682 yuan/ton, and the price of methanol in various regions has minor changes. The futures closing price is 2231 yuan/ton, a decrease of 17 yuan/ton from the previous day. The registered warehouse receipts are 8032, an increase of 450, and the effective forecasts are 0, a decrease of 450 [8]. - **Spread Structure**: The basis is - 21 yuan/ton, an increase of 12 yuan/ton from the previous day. The import spread is 34 yuan/ton, an increase of 18 yuan/ton [8]. - **Operating Rate**: The weighted average national operating rate is 74.90%, a decrease of 3.81% from the previous week. The operating rates in different regions have also decreased to varying degrees [8]. - **Inventory Situation**: The inventory in East China ports is 56.03 tons, a decrease of 0.33 tons, and the inventory in South China ports is 38.24 tons, a decrease of 1.54 tons [8]. 4. Maintenance Status - **Domestic Methanol Plants**: Many domestic methanol plants are under maintenance or have reduced production, including those in Shaanxi, Qinghai, Ningxia, Xinjiang, and other regions. The maintenance time and loss vary by enterprise [55]. - **Foreign Methanol Plants**: In Iran, some plants are in the process of restarting or operating at a low level. In other countries such as Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, and the United States, the operation status of methanol plants varies [56]. - **Olefin Plants**: Some olefin plants are under maintenance, such as the Shaanxi Qingcheng Clean Energy plant, while others are operating stably or at a low load [57].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Supply pressure has increased this week, and it is expected to increase slightly in production scheduling next week as maintenance is expected to decrease [8]. - Current demand may remain sluggish, with the overall downstream operating rate at 41.42%, a 3.33 - percentage - point decrease from the previous period, but still higher than the historical average [8]. - The cost of the calcium carbide method and the ethylene method has strengthened, and the overall cost has strengthened. The production scheduling may be under pressure [9]. - The overall inventory is at a neutral level. PVC2605 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4888 - 4988 [10]. - The main logic is that the overall supply pressure is strong, and the domestic demand recovery is not smooth [14]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply - side**: In January 2026, PVC production was 2.14863 million tons, a 0.53% month - on - month increase. This week, the capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises was 79.26%, with no change from the previous period. The production of calcium carbide enterprises was 348,330 tons, a 0.34% month - on - month increase, and that of ethylene enterprises was 136,960 tons, a 0.62% month - on - month increase [8]. - **Demand - side**: The overall downstream operating rate was 41.42%, a 3.33 - percentage - point decrease from the previous period; the downstream profile operating rate was 29.13%, a 2.39 - percentage - point decrease; the downstream pipe operating rate was 33%, a 4 - percentage - point decrease; the downstream film operating rate was 62.14%, a 3.56 - percentage - point decrease; the downstream paste resin operating rate was 77.24%, a 3.73 - percentage - point decrease. All are higher than the historical average. Shipping costs are expected to rise, and domestic PVC export prices are not competitive [8]. - **Cost - side**: The profit of the calcium carbide method was - 658.58 yuan/ton, with a 11.00% reduction in losses from the previous period; the profit of the ethylene method was 102.91 yuan/ton, a 91.60% month - on - month increase; the double - ton spread was 1,820.75 yuan/ton, a 0.10% month - on - month increase. All are lower than the historical average [9]. - **Other aspects**: On February 12, the price of East China SG - 5 was 4,830 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract was - 108 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures. The factory inventory was 287,700 tons, a 0.85% month - on - month decrease; the social inventory was 592,860 tons, a 1.40% month - on - month increase. The MA20 is upward, and the futures price of the 05 contract closed below the MA20. The main position is net short, and the short position decreased [11]. - **Leveraging factors**: Supply restart, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export benefits [13]. - **Negative factors**: Overall supply pressure rebounds, high inventory with slow consumption, and weak domestic and external demand [13]. 3.2 PVC Market Overview - The report provides yesterday's market overview data, including enterprise indicators, some monthly spreads, inventory, downstream operating rates, profits, costs, etc., and their changes from the previous period [16]. 3.3 PVC Futures Market - **Base - difference trend**: The report presents the base - difference trend of PVC futures, including the base - difference, PVC East China market price, and the closing price of the main contract over a long - term period [20]. - **Futures market situation**: It includes the price, trading volume, and position changes of PVC futures, such as the opening price, highest price, lowest price, closing price, MA10, MA5, MA20, MA60, MA120, and the position changes of the top 5 and top 20 seats [23]. - **Spread analysis**: It shows the spread analysis of the main contract, including the 1 - 9 spread and 5 - 9 spread in 2024 and 2025 [26]. 3.4 PVC Fundamental Analysis - **Calcium carbide method - related aspects**: - **Lancoke**: It includes the price, cost - profit, operating rate, inventory, and daily output of Lancoke [29]. - **Calcium carbide**: It includes the mainstream price, cost - profit, operating rate, maintenance loss, and production of calcium carbide in Shaanxi [32]. - **Liquid chlorine and raw salt**: It includes the price, production of liquid chlorine, and the price and monthly production of raw salt [35]. - **Caustic soda**: It includes the price, cost - profit, operating rate, weekly production, maintenance volume, apparent consumption, inventory, and flake caustic soda inventory of 32% caustic soda in Shandong [38][40]. - **Chlor - alkali cost - profit**: It includes the chlor - alkali gross profit, cost, and double - ton spread [40]. - **PVC supply trend**: It includes the weekly capacity utilization rate of the calcium carbide method and ethylene method, the profit of the calcium carbide method and ethylene method, daily production, weekly maintenance volume, weekly capacity utilization rate, and weekly production of PVC [43][45]. - **Demand trend**: It includes the daily sales volume of PVC traders, weekly pre - sales volume, weekly production - sales ratio, apparent consumption, downstream average operating rate, and operating rates of profiles, pipes, films, and paste resin of PVC. It also includes the gross profit, production, cost, and apparent consumption of paste resin, as well as real estate investment completion, housing construction area, new construction area, commercial housing sales area, and housing completion area [48][50][56]. - **Inventory**: It includes the exchange warehouse receipts, calcium carbide factory warehouse, ethylene factory warehouse, social inventory, and production enterprise inventory days [60]. - **Ethylene method**: It includes the import volume of vinyl chloride and dichloroethane, PVC export volume, FOB spread of the ethylene method, and import spread of vinyl chloride [62]. - **Supply - demand balance sheet**: It shows the monthly supply - demand situation of PVC from December 2024 to January 2026, including export, demand, social inventory, factory inventory, production, import, and supply - demand difference [65].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating was provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint The report indicates that the short - term oil price will fluctuate weakly. The possibility of military actions disrupting supply in the near term has decreased due to Trump's statement on the Iran issue. The IEA's prediction of a large - scale annual average supply surplus in 2026 also weighs on the oil price. The domestic market is slightly weaker than the international market, and the market is waiting for Spring Festival consumption and travel data. The SC2604 contract is expected to trade in the range of 455 - 465, and there are long - term opportunities to short at high levels [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Prompt - **Fundamentals**: Trump hopes to reach an agreement with Iran in the next month, and the US Treasury will issue more licenses to relax sanctions on Venezuela's energy sector. The IEA has lowered the forecast for global oil demand growth in 2026 due to high oil prices, which is bearish. The basis shows that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price, which is bullish. US API and EIA inventories increased significantly in the week ending February 6, and Cushing inventories also increased, which is bearish. The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the price is near the average, which is neutral. As of February 3, the long positions of WTI and Brent crude oil increased, which is bullish [3]. - **Expectation**: Short - term oil prices will fluctuate weakly. The SC2604 contract will trade in the 455 - 465 range, and there are long - term opportunities to short at high levels [3]. 3.2 Recent News - **Ukraine - Russia Peace Talks**: Ukrainian President Zelensky said that the US needs to put more pressure on Russia if it wants the conflict to end in summer. Russia is still considering whether to participate in the proposed peace talks in Miami, and the previous two rounds of talks in Abu Dhabi did not yield results [5]. - **US - Iran Relations**: Trump said the US must reach an agreement with Iran, otherwise the situation will be "very serious". He is willing to negotiate for as long as necessary and warned of a possible rapid development in the situation in the next month [5]. - **IEA Monthly Report**: The forecast for global crude oil demand growth in 2026 has been lowered to 850,000 barrels per day from 930,000 barrels per day. The global oil supply in 2026 will exceed demand by 3.73 million barrels per day, up from 3.69 million barrels per day in the previous report [5]. 3.3 Long - Short Concerns - **Bullish Factors**: Sanctions on Russia and the tense situation in Iran [6]. - **Bearish Factors**: The IEA's concern about oil supply surplus and the alleviation of supply problems in some oil - producing countries [6]. - **Market Driver**: Short - term focus on geopolitical factors, and long - term risk of oversupply [6]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Futures Market**: The settlement prices of Brent crude oil, WTI crude oil, SC crude oil, and Oman crude oil have changed, with Brent and WTI down by 2.71% and 3.16% respectively, SC up by 1.07%, and Oman up by 0.82% [7]. - **Spot Market**: The prices of various types of crude oil in the spot market have also changed. The price of WTI dropped by 100%, while the prices of other types of crude oil had relatively small changes [9]. - **Inventory**: US API crude oil inventory increased by 13.4 million barrels in the week ending February 6, and EIA inventory increased by 8.53 million barrels, exceeding the expected increase of 793,000 barrels. Cushing area inventory increased by 1.071 million barrels. The Shanghai crude oil futures inventory remained unchanged at 3.464 million barrels as of February 12 [3]. 3.5 Positioning Data - **WTI Crude Oil**: As of February 3, the net long position increased by 27,583 to 124,565 [16]. - **Brent Crude Oil**: As of February 3, the net long position increased by 31,332 to 278,249 [18].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The copper supply side is disrupted, with smelting enterprises reducing production and the scrap copper policy being relaxed. In January, the manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing prosperity. The overall situation is bullish. The spot price is 102160, and the basis is 170, showing a premium over the futures, which is neutral. On February 12, copper inventory increased by 4550 to 196650 tons, and the SHFE copper inventory increased by 15907 tons to 248911 tons last week, also neutral. The closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is moving downward, which is bearish. The main position is net long, but long positions are decreasing, which is bullish. Geopolitical disturbances still exist, and the copper price has reached a new high and is currently fluctuating at a high level. Attention should be paid to position control during the holiday [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily View - **Fundamentals**: Supply - side disruptions, smelting production cuts, relaxed scrap copper policy. January manufacturing PMI at 49.3%, down 0.8 ppts from last month, manufacturing prosperity declined; bullish [2]. - **Basis**: Spot price 102160, basis 170, premium over futures; neutral [2]. - **Inventory**: On Feb 12, copper inventory up 4550 to 196650 tons, SHFE copper inventory up 15907 tons to 248911 tons last week; neutral [2]. - **Disk**: Closing price below 20 - day MA, 20 - day MA moving down; bearish [2]. - **Main Position**: Main net long position with long positions decreasing; bullish [2]. - **Expectation**: Geopolitical disturbances, copper price at new high, high - level fluctuations. Control positions during holidays [2]. 3.2 Recent利多利空Analysis - **利多Factors**: Global policy easing and tight mining supply, geopolitical disturbances in Russia - Ukraine and Israel - Iran, Fed rate cuts, slow mining production increase, and production cuts in Freeport Indonesia's mining area [3][4]. - **利空Factors**: Unexpected US comprehensive tariffs, global economic pessimism, and high copper prices suppressing downstream consumption [4]. 3.3 Inventory - related - **Exchange Inventory**: The SHFE copper inventory increased by 15907 tons to 248911 tons last week [2]. - **Bonded Area Inventory**: Bonded area inventory rebounded from a low level [13]. 3.4 Processing Fee - Processing fee declined [15]. 3.5 Supply - Demand Balance - In 2024, there is a slight surplus, and in 2025, it is in a tight - balance situation. The China annual supply - demand balance table shows production, import, export, apparent consumption, actual consumption, and supply - demand balance data from 2018 - 2024 [19][21].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The overall situation of the oil and fat market shows that prices are in a state of shock consolidation. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the supply is stable. The Sino - US relationship is tense, which puts pressure on the price of US soybeans. The inventory of Malaysian palm oil is neutral, and demand is improving. Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the B50 plan is expected to be implemented in 2026. The domestic oil and fat fundamentals are neutral, and the import inventory is stable [2][3][4] - The current main logic of the market revolves around the relatively loose global oil and fat fundamentals. There are also some factors affecting the market, with the US soybean inventory - to - sales ratio remaining around 4%, indicating tight supply, while the high historical price of oil and fat, continuous accumulation of domestic oil and fat inventory, weak macro - economy, and high expected production of relevant oils and fats are the negative factors [5] Summary by Related Catalogs Supply - **Soybean - related supply**: - On January 9, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1020000 tons, a decrease of 60000 tons from the previous period and an increase of 14.7% year - on - year [2] - Information on soybean meal inventory is mentioned, but no specific data is provided [8] - Information on oil - mill soybean crushing is mentioned, but no specific data is provided [10] - **Palm oil supply**: - In December, the production of Malaysian palm oil decreased by 5.46% month - on - month to 1.8298 million tons, exports increased by 8.55% month - on - month to 1.3165 million tons, and the end - of - month inventory increased by 7.59% month - on - month to 3.0506 million tons. As of January, the export data of Malaysian palm oil increased by 29% month - on - month. On January 9, the port inventory of palm oil was 736000 tons, an increase of 2200 tons from the previous value and an increase of 46% year - on - year [2][3][4] - **Rapeseed - related supply**: - On January 9, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 250000 tons, a decrease of 20000 tons from the previous value and a decrease of 44% year - on - year [4] - Information on rapeseed inventory is mentioned, but no specific data is provided [21] - **Total domestic oil and fat supply**: Information on total domestic oil and fat inventory is mentioned, but no specific data is provided [23] Demand - **Soybean - related demand**: - Information on the apparent consumption of soybean oil is mentioned, but no specific data is provided [12] - Information on the apparent consumption of soybean meal is mentioned, but no specific data is provided [14] Price Forecast - Soybean oil Y2605 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 7900 - 8300 [2] - Palm oil P2605 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8600 - 9000 [3] - Rapeseed oil OI2605 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8900 - 9300 [4]

沪铝早报- 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 大越期货投资咨询部 ：祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号：Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 铝: 近期利多利空分析 利多： 利空： 1、基本面：碳中和控制产能扩张，国内供应即将到达天花板，下游需求不强劲，房地产延续疲软，宏 观短期情绪多变；中性。 2、基差：现货23350，基差-260，贴水期货，偏空。 3、库存：上期所铝库存较上周涨28369吨至245140吨；中性。 4、盘面：收盘价收于20均线下，20均线向下运行；偏空。 5、主力持仓：主力净持仓多，多减；偏多。 6、预期：碳中和催发铝行业变革，长期利多铝价，宏观情绪多变，铝价震荡运行，假期来临控制仓位 逻辑： 降息和需求疲软博弈 1、碳中和控制产能扩张。 2、俄乌地缘政治扰动，影响俄铝供应。 3、降息 1、全球经济并不乐观，高铝价会压制下游消费。 2、铝材出口 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The current daily production and operating rate of urea are at a high level compared to the same period. With the return of maintenance, the operating rate is expected to continue to rise. The comprehensive inventory is falling, showing an obvious de - stocking pattern. Although it is approaching the Spring Festival, the order demand is still acceptable, with good agricultural reserve demand. In the industrial demand, the demand for compound fertilizers is stable, while the operating rate of melamine is falling. There is a large price difference between domestic and international exports. Recently, the downstream demand is acceptable, but the domestic urea market is still in a state of oversupply. The spot price of the delivery product is 1800 (unchanged), and the overall fundamentals are neutral. The UR2605 contract basis is - 43, with a premium/discount ratio of - 2.4%, indicating a bearish signal. The UR comprehensive inventory is 1.084 million tons (- 0.005 million tons), which is a bullish factor. The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, which is bullish. The net position of the UR main contract is short, and the short position is increasing, which is bearish. It is expected that the UR main contract will fluctuate today [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Overview - **Fundamentals**: Current daily production and operating rate are at a high level year - on - year. With the return of maintenance, the operating rate is expected to continue to rise. The comprehensive inventory is falling, and the de - stocking pattern is obvious. Although it is approaching the Spring Festival, the order demand is acceptable, with good agricultural reserve demand. In industrial demand, the demand for compound fertilizers is stable, and the operating rate of melamine is falling. There is a large price difference between domestic and international exports. Recently, the downstream demand is acceptable, but the domestic urea market is still in a state of oversupply. The spot price of the delivery product is 1800 (unchanged), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4]. - **Basis**: The UR2605 contract basis is - 43, with a premium/discount ratio of - 2.4%, which is bearish [4]. - **Inventory**: The UR comprehensive inventory is 1.084 million tons (- 0.005 million tons), which is bullish [4]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, which is bullish [4]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the UR main contract is short, and the short position is increasing, which is bearish [4]. - **Expectation**: The UR main contract is expected to fluctuate today. The operating rate is at a high level year - on - year. Although it is approaching the Spring Festival, the downstream reserve demand is acceptable, and the inventory is being de - stocked [4]. Factors Affecting Urea - **Likely to Rise**: Inventory de - stocking and good reserve demand [5]. - **Likely to Fall**: Domestic oversupply [5]. - **Main Logic**: International prices and marginal changes in domestic demand [5]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet of Urea | Year | Capacity | Capacity Growth Rate | Output | Net Imports | PP Import Dependence | Apparent Consumption | Ending Inventory | Actual Consumption | Consumption Growth Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2018 | | 22.455 billion | | 19.5681 billion | 4.4838 billion | 18.6% | 24.0519 billion | 0.2366 billion | 24.0519 billion | | | 2019 | | 24.455 billion | 8.9% | 22.4 billion | 4.8794 billion | 17.9% | 27.2794 billion | 0.3786 billion | 27.1374 billion | 12.8% | | 2020 | | 28.255 billion | 15.5% | 25.8098 billion | 6.1912 billion | 19.3% | 32.001 billion | 0.3783 billion | 32.0013 billion | 17.9% | | 2021 | | 31.485 billion | 11.4% | 29.2799 billion | 3.5241 billion | 10.7% | 32.804 billion | 0.3572 billion | 32.8251 billion | 2.6% | | 2022 | | 34.135 billion | 8.4% | 29.6546 billion | 3.3537 billion | 10.2% | 33.0083 billion | 0.4462 billion | 32.9193 billion | 0.3% | | 2023 | | 38.935 billion | 14.1% | 31.9359 billion | 2.9313 billion | 8.4% | 34.8672 billion | 0.4465 billion | 34.8669 billion | 5.9% | | 2024 | | 44.185 billion | 13.5% | 34.25 billion | 3.6 billion | 9.5% | 37.85 billion | 0.514 billion | 37.7825 billion | 8.4% | | 2025E | | 49.06 billion | 11.0% | | | | | | | [9]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 贵金属早报—— 2026年2月13日 大越期货投资咨询部 项唯一 从业资格证号： F3051846 投资咨询证号： Z0015764 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 黄金 1、基本面：AI恐慌升级，美股大跌疑似引发金属的算法卖盘，金价回落；美国三大 股指全线收跌，欧洲三大股指收盘涨跌不一；美债收益率集体下跌，10年期美债收 益率跌7.04个基点报4.100%；美元指数跌0.02%报96.91，离岸人民币对美元升值报 6.899；COMEX黄金期货跌3.08%报4941.4美元/盎司；中性 2、基差：黄金期货1126.12，现货1122.82，基差-3.3，现货贴水期货；中性 3、库存：黄金期货仓单105072千克，不变；偏空 4、盘面：20日均线向上，k线在20日均线上方；偏 ...