交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 豆粕早报 2026-02-11 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 ✸豆粕观点和策略 豆粕M2605：2720至2780区间震荡 1.基本面：美豆震荡收涨，美农报数据变化不大和技术性震荡整理，美豆短期维持区间震荡 等待中美贸易协议执行后续和南美大豆产区生长和收割天气进一步指引。国内豆粕震荡 回升，美豆走势带动和年底需求进入旺季现货价格升水支撑盘面底部，消息面多空交织 短期或维持震荡格局。中性 2.基差：现货3020（华东），基差286，升水期货。偏多 3.库存：油厂豆粕库存94.72万吨，上周104.4万吨，环比减少9.27%，去年同期55.67万吨， 同比增加70.15%。偏空 4. ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2026-02-11原油早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 原油2603： 1.基本面：美国总统特朗普表示，正考虑向中东派遣第二艘航母，目前华盛顿与德黑兰正准备重启旨在避免 新冲突的谈判，特朗普在接受以色列媒体采访时表示，若与伊朗无法达成协议，美国将不得不采取"非常强 硬的措施"；美国能源信息署（EIA）发布最新短期能源展望报告，上调今明两年美国石油产量预测，而美国 石油需求预测维持不变，该机构称，在EIA预测的到2027年底的这段时期内，全球石油产量的增长速度预计 将超过需求，从而增加库存并对价格造成压力；中性 2.基差：2月10日，阿曼原油现货价为68.28美元/桶，卡塔尔海 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 黄金 1、基本面：美股AI担忧重燃，美国零售数据逊色，金价震荡回落；美国三大股指收 盘涨跌不一，欧洲三大股指收盘涨跌不一；美债收益率集体下跌，10年期美债收益 率跌5.94个基点报4.143%；美元指数涨0.01%报96.86，离岸人民币对美元微幅升值 报6.9143；COMEX黄金期货跌0.62%报5047.90美元/盎司；中性 2、基差：黄金期货1121.22，现货1118，基差-3.22，现货贴水期货；中性 3、库存：黄金期货仓单105072千克，增加1020千克；偏空 4、盘面：20日均线向上，k线在20日均线上方；偏多 5、主力持仓：主力净持仓多，主力多增；偏多 6、预期：今日关注中国1月CPI和PPI、美国非农就业数据、美国12月营建许可终 值、美联储和欧央行委员讲话。美股AI担忧重燃，美国零售数据逊色，金价回落。 沪金溢价扩大至2.5元/克左右。国内外节假日集中，波动率下降，今日关注非农数 据，金价向上趋势不变。 贵金属早报—— 2026年2月11日 ...

每日观点 铝: 1、基本面：碳中和控制产能扩张，国内供应即将到达天花板，下游需求不强劲，房地产延续疲软，宏 观短期情绪多变；中性。 2、基差：现货23280，基差-235，贴水期货，偏空。 3、库存：上期所铝库存较上周涨28369吨至245140吨；中性。 4、盘面：收盘价收于20均线下，20均线向下运行；偏空。 5、主力持仓：主力净持仓多，多增；偏多。 6、预期：碳中和催发铝行业变革，长期利多铝价，宏观情绪多变，铝价震荡运行 沪铝早报- 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 大越期货投资咨询部 ：祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号：Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 降息和需求疲软博弈 1、碳中和控制产能扩张。 2、俄乌地缘政治扰动，影响俄铝供应。 3、降息 1、全球经济并不乐观，高铝价会压制下游消费。 2、铝材出口退税取消 每日汇总 | 现货 昨日现货 | 地方 地方 | ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 指标体系 沪锌: 1、基本面： 外媒1月21日消息：世界金属统计局（WBMS）公布最新数据显 示，2025年11月，全球锌板产量为119.7万吨,消费量为116.8万吨,供应过剩 2.9万吨.1-11月,全球锌板产量为1275.61万吨,消费量为1310.65万吨,供应 短缺35.04万吨.11月份,全球锌矿产量为106.9万吨.1-11月,全球锌矿产量为 1214.19万吨；偏多。 2、基差：现货24510，基差+55；中性。 沪锌期货早报-2026年2月11日 大越期货投资咨询部 祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号： Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85225791 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 3、库存：2月10日LME锌库存较上日减少175吨至106750吨，2月10日上期所 锌库存仓单较上日增加2971吨至34235吨；中性。 4、盘面：昨日沪锌震荡走势，收20日均线之下 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 焦煤焦炭早报（2026-2-11） 焦煤 利 多：1.铁水产量上涨 2.供应难有增量 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 焦煤： 1、基本面：临近春节，煤矿安检形式严峻，叠加部分煤矿进入假期，炼焦煤供应维持偏紧格局。下游 焦企采购积极性下降，同时中间投机需求也相应减少，市场交投氛围逐渐冷清，部分竞拍煤种随着市场 情绪转弱，成交价格较前期窄幅下调，但矿点考虑当前库存压力不大以及市场流通资源减少，挺价心理 偏强，目前市场主流煤矿报价暂稳；中性 2、基差：现货市场价1230，基差111；现货升水期货；偏多 3、库存：钢厂库存824万吨，港口库存273万吨，独立焦企库存1095万吨，总样本库存2192万吨，较上 周增加57万吨；偏空 4、盘面：20日线向下，价格在20日线下方；偏空 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 棉花早报——2026年2月11日 大越期货投资咨询部 王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询证号： Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 棉花： 1、基本面：2026新疆棉种植面积调控，预计可能减幅超10%。USDA12月报：25/26年度产量 2608.1万吨，消费2582.3万吨，期末库存1654.1万吨。海关：12月纺织品服装出口259.9亿美 元，同比下降7.4%。12月份我国棉花进口18万吨，同比增加31%；棉纱进口17万吨，同比增加 13.33%。农村部12月25/26年度：产量670万吨，进口140万吨，消费760万吨，期末库存835万 吨。中性。 6：预期：棉花主力05背靠14500横盘整理，短期14500附近支撑较强。春节长假即将到来， ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪镍&不锈钢早报—2026年2月11日 大越期货投资咨询部 祝森林 从业资：F3023048 投资咨询证：Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 6、结论：沪镍2603：节前控制仓位，日内交易为主。 2、基差：现货138950，基差5600，偏多 3、库存：LME库存285750，+678，上交所仓单52039，+318，偏空 4、盘面：收盘价收于20均线以下，20均线向下，偏空 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净多，多增，偏多 不锈钢 每日观点 1、基本面：现货不锈钢价格持平，短期镍矿价格上涨，看涨情绪浓重，镍铁价格出现回落，成本线下移， 不锈钢库存持续回升。中性 2、基差：不锈钢平均价格14987.5，基差1162.5，偏多 3、库存：期货仓单：54070，+607，中性 4、盘面：收盘价在20均线以下，20均线向上，中性 5、结论：不锈钢2603：节前控制仓位，日内交易为主。 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The prices of oils and fats are expected to fluctuate and consolidate. The domestic fundamentals are loose with stable domestic oil and fat supply. Sino - US relations are tense, which puts pressure on the price of new US soybeans due to受挫 exports. Malaysian palm oil inventory is neutral with improving demand. Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the B50 plan is expected to be implemented in 2026. The domestic oil and fat fundamentals are neutral with stable import inventory. [2][3][4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Daily View - Soybean Oil - **Fundamentals**: MPOB report shows that Malaysian palm oil production in December decreased 5.46% month - on - month to 1829800 tons, exports increased 8.55% month - on - month to 1316500 tons, and end - of - month inventory increased 7.59% month - on - month to 3050600 tons. The report is slightly bearish with inventory data exceeding expectations. Current shipping survey agencies show that Malaysian palm oil export data in January increased 29% month - on - month, and the supply pressure will decrease in the subsequent production - reducing season. [2] - **Basis**: The spot price of soybean oil is 8400, with a basis of 302, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price. [2] - **Inventory**: On January 9th, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1.02 million tons, down 60,000 tons from the previous 1.08 million tons, a month - on - month decrease, but up 14.7% year - on - year. [2] - **Market Chart**: The futures price is running below the 20 - day moving average, while the 20 - day moving average is upward. [2] - **Main Position**: The long positions of the main soybean oil contract decreased. [2] - **Expectation**: The soybean oil Y2605 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 7900 - 8300. [2] 3.2 Daily View - Palm Oil - **Fundamentals**: Similar to soybean oil, the MPOB report on Malaysian palm oil in December is slightly bearish, but the supply pressure will decrease in the subsequent production - reducing season with a 29% month - on - month increase in January export data. [3] - **Basis**: The spot price of palm oil is 8960, with a basis of 20, indicating the spot price is at a premium to the futures price. [3] - **Inventory**: On January 9th, the port inventory of palm oil was 736,000 tons, up 2200 tons from the previous 733,800 tons, a month - on - month increase and up 46% year - on - year. [3] - **Market Chart**: The futures price is running below the 20 - day moving average, while the 20 - day moving average is upward. [3] - **Main Position**: The long positions of the main palm oil contract turned to short positions. [3] - **Expectation**: The palm oil P2605 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8700 - 9100. [3] 3.3 Daily View - Rapeseed Oil - **Fundamentals**: The MPOB report on Malaysian palm oil in December is slightly bearish, and the supply pressure will decrease in the subsequent production - reducing season with a 29% month - on - month increase in January export data. [4] - **Basis**: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 9900, with a basis of 804, indicating the spot price is at a premium to the futures price. [4] - **Inventory**: On January 9th, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 250,000 tons, down 20,000 tons from the previous 270,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease and down 44% year - on - year. [4] - **Market Chart**: The futures price is running below the 20 - day moving average, while the 20 - day moving average is upward. [4] - **Main Position**: The short positions of the main rapeseed oil contract decreased. [4] - **Expectation**: The rapeseed oil OI2605 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8900 - 9300. [4] 3.4 Recent Bullish and Bearish Analysis - **Bullish Factors**: The US soybean stock - to - sales ratio remains around 4%, indicating tight supply. [5] - **Bearish Factors**: The prices of oils and fats are at a relatively high historical level, and domestic oil and fat inventories are continuously accumulating. The macro - economy is weak, and the expected production of related oils and fats is high. [5] - **Main Logic**: The global fundamentals of oils and fats are relatively loose. [5]

Report Information - Report Name: Polyolefin Morning Report [2] - Date: February 11, 2026 [2] - Author: Zhu Tianyi from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department [3] Core Views - The LLDPE and PP markets are expected to fluctuate today. The suspension of OPEC's production increase in the first quarter and geopolitical factors affecting oil prices provide strong cost support, but downstream demand is weak due to the approaching Spring Festival [4][7] - The main logic for both LLDPE and PP is oversupply, and the supply - demand marginal changes are sensitive [6][8] LLDPE Analysis Fundamental Analysis - The official manufacturing PMI in January was 49.3%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, falling into the contraction range. OPEC+ decided to suspend the production increase plan in Q1 2026 due to weak seasonal demand. Crude oil has returned to a volatile state, and polyolefins have followed with large fluctuations. Near the Spring Festival, most agricultural film and packaging film enterprises have shut down, with few orders. The current LLDPE delivery product spot price is 6600 (-50), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4] Basis Analysis - The basis of the LLDPE 2605 contract is -175, with a premium - discount ratio of -2.6%, which is bearish [4] Inventory Analysis - The comprehensive PE inventory is 40.3 tons (+5.4), which is bullish [4] Market Analysis - The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is upward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, which is neutral [4] Main Position Analysis - The net position of the LLDPE main contract is short, and the short position is decreasing, which is bearish [4] Expectation - The LLDPE main contract is expected to fluctuate today [4] Factors - Bullish factor: Cost support [6] - Bearish factor: Weak downstream demand [6] PP Analysis Fundamental Analysis - Similar to LLDPE, the official manufacturing PMI in January was 49.3%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month. OPEC+ suspended the production increase plan in Q1 2026. Near the Spring Festival, the overall start - up of plastic weaving has significantly declined, and pipe demand has also been affected by the Spring Festival shutdown. The current PP delivery product spot price is 6650 (-0), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [7] Basis Analysis - The basis of the PP 2605 contract is -38, with a premium - discount ratio of -0.6%, which is bearish [7] Inventory Analysis - The comprehensive PP inventory is 41.6 tons (+1.5), which is bullish [7] Market Analysis - The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is upward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, which is neutral [7] Main Position Analysis - The net position of the PP main contract is short, and the short position is decreasing, which is bearish [7] Expectation - The PP main contract is expected to fluctuate today [7] Factors - Bullish factor: Cost support [8] - Bearish factor: Weak downstream demand [8] Supply - Demand Balance Tables Polyethylene - From 2018 - 2024, the capacity, production, and net import volume of polyethylene have changed. The import dependence has generally shown a downward trend, and the consumption growth rate has fluctuated. The expected capacity in 2025E is 4319.5 [14] Polypropylene - From 2018 - 2024, the capacity, production, and net import volume of polypropylene have changed. The import dependence has generally decreased, and the consumption growth rate has also fluctuated. The expected capacity in 2025E is 4906 [16]