交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 今日关注 基本面数据 5 PTA&MEG早报-2026年2月12日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 投资咨询资格证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 6、预期：随着春节假期临近，聚酯减产幅度扩大，终端逐步放假，PTA供需趋累，现货市场商谈清淡，预计年前PTA现货价格跟 随成本端震荡，现货基差区间波动。关注商品氛围及上下游装置变动。 2、基差：现货5180，05合约基差-80，盘面升水 中性 3、库存：PTA工厂库存3.74天，环比增加0.16天 偏空 4、盘面：20日均线向上，收盘价收于20日均线之上 偏多 MEG 每日观点 MEG： 5、主力持仓：净空 空减 偏空 6、预期：基本面来看，1-2月乙二醇季节性强累库预期依旧存在，但中期供需结构存在适度好转。海外装置存在推迟重启以及新增 检修量，二季 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 贵金属早报—— 2026年2月12日 大越期货投资咨询部 项唯一 从业资格证号： F3051846 投资咨询证号： Z0015764 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 黄金 1、基本面：美国1月非农报告整体强劲，打压降息预期，金价震荡收涨；美国三大 股指小幅收跌，欧洲三大股指收盘涨跌不一；美债收益率集体上涨，10年期美债收 益率涨2.77个基点报4.170%；美元指数涨0.01%报96.86，离岸人民币对美元微幅升 值报6.9143；COMEX黄金期货涨1.53%报5107.80美元/盎司；中性 2、基差：黄金期货1130.4，现货1126.49，基差-3.91，现货贴水期货；中性 3、库存：黄金期货仓单105072千克，增加1020千克；偏空 4、盘面：20日均线向上，k线在 ...

大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 焦煤： 焦煤焦炭早报（2026-2-12） 1、基本面：产区煤矿进入集中放假潮的倒计时，部分煤矿已经停产仅销售库存，但下游焦企补库需求 开始减弱，中间环节观望情绪增加，煤矿签单量下滑，同时线上竞拍较为平淡，竞拍活跃度较前期降低， 部分煤种价格继续下调成交。考虑产地部分煤矿已安排停产放假，焦煤市场供应继续收紧，部分煤矿出 现"有价无市"现象，煤矿报价多以稳为主，部分略有调整；中性 2、基差：现货市场价1230，基差106.5；现货升水期货；偏多 3、库存：钢厂库存824万吨，港口库存273万吨，独立焦企库存1095万吨，总样本库存2192万吨，较上 周增加57万吨；偏空 4、盘面：20日线向下，价格在20日线下方；偏空 5、主力持仓：焦煤主力 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The current daily production and operating rate of urea are at a high level year-on-year. With the return of maintenance, the operating rate is expected to continue to rise. The comprehensive inventory is declining, showing an obvious de-stocking pattern. Although it is approaching the Spring Festival, the order demand is still good, the agricultural reserve demand is strong, and the demand for compound fertilizers in the industrial sector is stable, while the operating rate of melamine is falling. There is a large price difference between domestic and international markets for exports. Recently, the downstream demand is fair, but the domestic urea market is still in oversupply. The spot price of the delivery product is 1800 (unchanged), and the overall fundamentals are neutral. The UR2605 contract basis is 3, with a premium/discount ratio of 0.2%, also neutral. The UR comprehensive inventory is 1.084 million tons (-0.5), which is bullish. The 20-day moving average of the UR main contract is upward, and the closing price is above the 20-day line, which is also bullish. The net position of the UR main contract is short, and the short positions are decreasing, which is bearish. It is expected that the UR main contract will fluctuate today [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Overview - **Fundamentals**: Current daily production and operating rate are at a high level year-on-year. With the return of maintenance, the operating rate is expected to continue to rise. The comprehensive inventory is declining, showing an obvious de-stocking pattern. Although it is approaching the Spring Festival, the order demand is still good, the agricultural reserve demand is strong, and the demand for compound fertilizers in the industrial sector is stable, while the operating rate of melamine is falling. There is a large price difference between domestic and international markets for exports. Recently, the downstream demand is fair, but the domestic urea market is still in oversupply. The spot price of the delivery product is 1800 (unchanged), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4]. - **Basis**: The UR2605 contract basis is 3, with a premium/discount ratio of 0.2%, which is neutral [4]. - **Inventory**: The UR comprehensive inventory is 1.084 million tons (-0.5), which is bullish [4]. - **Disk**: The 20-day moving average of the UR main contract is upward, and the closing price is above the 20-day line, which is bullish [4]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the UR main contract is short, and the short positions are decreasing, which is bearish [4]. - **Expectation**: The UR main contract is expected to fluctuate today. The operating rate is at a high level year-on-year. Although it is approaching the Spring Festival, the downstream reserve demand is fair, and the inventory is decreasing [4]. Factors Affecting Urea - **Bullish Factors**: Inventory de-stocking and good reserve demand [5]. - **Bearish Factors**: Domestic oversupply [5]. - **Main Logic**: International prices and marginal changes in domestic demand [5]. Spot and Futures Market Conditions | Region | Price | Change | Main Contract | Price | Change | Type | Quantity | Change | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | Spot Delivery Product | 1800 | 0 | 05 Contract | 1797 | 12 | Warehouse Receipt | 10949 | -87 | | Shandong Spot | 1800 | 0 | Basis | 3 | -12 | UR Comprehensive Inventory | 108.4 | -0.5 | | Henan Spot | 1800 | 0 | UR01 | 1748 | 13 | UR Manufacturer Inventory | 91.9 | 0 | | FOB China | 3059 | | UR05 | 1797 | 12 | UR Port Inventory | 16.5 | 0 | | | | | UR09 | 1756 | 13 | | | | [6] Urea Supply and Demand Balance Sheet | Year | Production Capacity | Capacity Growth Rate | Output | Net Imports | PP Import Dependence | Apparent Consumption | Ending Inventory | Actual Consumption | Consumption Growth Rate | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | 2018 | | 2245.5 | | 1956.81 | 448.38 | 18.6% | 2405.19 | 23.66 | 2405.19 | | | 2019 | | 2445.5 | 8.9% | 2240 | 487.94 | 17.9% | 2727.94 | 37.86 | 2713.74 | 12.8% | | 2020 | | 2825.5 | 15.5% | 2580.98 | 619.12 | 19.3% | 3200.1 | 37.83 | 3200.13 | 17.9% | | 2021 | | 3148.5 | 11.4% | 2927.99 | 352.41 | 10.7% | 3280.4 | 35.72 | 3282.51 | 2.6% | | 2022 | | 3413.5 | 8.4% | 2965.46 | 335.37 | 10.2% | 3300.83 | 44.62 | 3291.93 | 0.3% | | 2023 | | 3893.5 | 14.1% | 3193.59 | 293.13 | 8.4% | 3486.72 | 44.65 | 3486.69 | 5.9% | | 2024 | | 4418.5 | 13.5% | 3425 | 360 | 9.5% | 3785 | 51.4 | 3778.25 | 8.4% | | 2025E | | 4906 | 11.0% | | | | | | | [9]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 聚烯烃早报 2026-2-12 大越期货投资咨询部 朱天一 从业资格证号：F3020542 投资咨询证号： Z0021831 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 • LLDPE概述： • 1. 基本面：宏观方面，官方1月制造业PMI为49.3%，较上月回落0.8个百分点，落入收缩区间。 OPEC+2月1日部长级会议重申去年11月2日决定，因季节性需求疲软暂停2026年第一季度的增产计 划。当前原油回归震荡，前期因受伊朗等地缘政治扰动影响，走势波动大，聚烯烃跟随波动偏大。 供需端，临近春节，农膜方面，多数企业停工，整体订单少，包装膜企业同样多数停工。当前LL 交割品现货价6600（-0），基本面整体中性； • 2. 基差： LLDPE 2605合约基差-187，升贴水比例-2.8%，偏空； • 3. 库存：PE综合库存36.7万吨（-3.6），偏多； • 4. 盘面： LLD ...

每日观点 纯碱： 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 纯碱早报 2026-2-12 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 1、基本面：碱厂产量高位，整体供给预期充裕；下游浮法玻璃、光伏日熔量整体延续下滑趋势， 纯碱厂库处于历史同期高位；偏空 2、基差：河北沙河重质纯碱现货价1120元/吨，SA2605收盘价为1178元/吨，基差为-58元，期货升 水现货；偏空 3、库存：全国纯碱厂内库存158.11万吨，较前一周增加2.39%，库存在5年均值上方运行；偏空 4、盘面：价格在20日线下方运行，20日线向下；偏空 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空减；偏空 6、预期：纯碱基本面不改疲弱，短期预计震荡偏弱运行为主。 影响因素总结 利多： 1、远兴能源二期产线满产时间预期延后。 利空： 主要逻辑和风险点 1、近期企业产线面临恢复， ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For Shanghai Nickel 2603, control positions before the holiday, trade mainly within the day as the price moves around the 20 - day moving average [2] - For Stainless Steel 2603, control positions before the holiday and focus on intraday trading [4] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel Price Overview - On February 11, the price of Shanghai Nickel's main contract was 139,360, up 6,010 from February 10; LME Nickel was 18,065, up 515; the price of Stainless Steel's main contract was 14,145, up 320. Among spot prices, SMM1 electrolytic nickel was 142,600, up 3,650, and cold - rolled 304*2B stainless steel prices in most regions remained unchanged [8] Nickel Warehouse Receipts and Inventory - As of February 6, the Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel inventory was 57,457 tons, with futures inventory at 51,274 tons, an increase of 2,061 tons and 4,398 tons respectively. On February 11, LME nickel inventory was 285,750 tons (unchanged), Shanghai Nickel's warehouse receipts were 52,027 tons, a decrease of 12 tons [10][11] Stainless Steel Warehouse Receipts and Inventory - On February 6, the inventory in Wuxi was 546,200 tons, in Foshan was 305,200 tons, and the national inventory was 965,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 12,300 tons. The 300 - series inventory was 632,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 15,300 tons. On February 11, stainless steel warehouse receipts were 54,491 tons, an increase of 421 tons [15][16] Nickel Ore and Ferronickel Prices - On February 11, the price of red clay nickel ore CIF (Ni1.5%) was 64.5 dollars/wet ton, unchanged; the price of high - nickel ferronickel (8 - 12) was 1,037.61 yuan/nickel point, up 2.09 yuan [19] Stainless Steel Production Cost - Traditional production cost was 13,718 yuan, scrap steel production cost was 13,431 yuan, and low - nickel + pure nickel production cost was 18,012 yuan [21] Nickel Import Cost Calculation - The converted import price was 142,060 yuan/ton [24]

大越期货投资咨询部 祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号： Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85225791 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 沪锌期货早报-2026年2月12日 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 数据来源：SHFE 指标体系 沪锌: 1、基本面： 外媒1月21日消息：世界金属统计局（WBMS）公布最新数据显 示，2025年11月，全球锌板产量为119.7万吨,消费量为116.8万吨,供应过剩 2.9万吨.1-11月,全球锌板产量为1275.61万吨,消费量为1310.65万吨,供应 短缺35.04万吨.11月份,全球锌矿产量为106.9万吨.1-11月,全球锌矿产量为 1214.19万吨；偏多。 2、基差：现货24520，基差-65；中性。 3、库存：2月11日LME锌库存较上日减少1500吨至105250吨，2月11日上期所 锌库存仓单较上日增加8100吨至42335吨；中性。 4、盘面：昨日沪锌震荡 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 棉花早报——2026年2月12日 大越期货投资咨询部 王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询证号： Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 2、基差：现货3128b全国均价16029，基差1284（05合约），升水期货；偏多。 3、库存：中国农业部25/26年度12月预计期末库存835万吨；偏空。 4、盘面：20日均线走平，k线在20日均线上方，偏多。 5、主力持仓：持仓偏多，净持仓多增，主力趋势不明朗；偏多。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 棉花： 1、基本面：2026新疆棉种植面积调控，预计可能减幅超10%。USDA2月报：25/26年度产量 2609.6万吨，消费2584.7万吨，期末库存1635.3万吨。海关：12月纺织品服装出口259.9亿美 元，同比下降7.4%。12月份我国棉花进口18万吨，同比增加31%；棉纱进口17万吨，同比增加 13.33%。农村部2月25/26年度：产量664万吨，进口140万吨，消费760万吨，期末库存829万 吨。中性。 6：预 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The overall situation of the oil and fat market is that prices are oscillating. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic oil and fat supply is stable. The Sino - US relationship is tense, which has put pressure on the price of US soybeans. The palm oil inventory in Malaysia is neutral, and the demand has improved. Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the B50 plan is expected to be implemented in 2026. The domestic oil and fat fundamentals are neutral, and the import inventory is stable [2][3][4] Summary According to Related Catalogs Daily Views - Soybean Oil - Fundamental: MPOB report shows that Malaysia's palm oil production in December decreased by 5.46% month - on - month to 1.8298 million tons, exports increased by 8.55% month - on - month to 1.3165 million tons, and the end - of - month inventory increased by 7.59% month - on - month to 3.0506 million tons. The report is slightly bearish. Currently, the export data of Malaysian palm oil in January shows a 29% month - on - month increase, and the supply pressure will decrease in the subsequent production - reduction season. It is neutral [2] - Basis: The spot price of soybean oil is 8410, the basis is 300, and the spot price is at a premium to the futures price. It is bullish [2] - Inventory: On January 9, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1.02 million tons, down 60,000 tons from the previous 1.08 million tons, a month - on - month decrease, and up 14.7% year - on - year. It is bearish [2] - Disk: The futures price is running below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward. It is bearish [2] - Main position: The long positions of the main soybean oil contract are decreasing. It is bullish [2] - Expectation: The price of soybean oil Y2605 will oscillate in the range of 7900 - 8300 [2] Daily Views - Palm Oil - Fundamental: Similar to soybean oil, the MPOB report is slightly bearish, and the supply pressure will decrease in the subsequent production - reduction season. It is neutral [3] - Basis: The spot price of palm oil is 8910, the basis is 4, and the spot price is at a premium to the futures price. It is neutral [3] - Inventory: On January 9, the port inventory of palm oil was 736,000 tons, up 2,200 tons from the previous 733,800 tons, a month - on - month increase, and up 46% year - on - year. It is bearish [3] - Disk: The futures price is running below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward. It is neutral [3] - Main position: The short positions of the main palm oil contract are increasing. It is bearish [3] - Expectation: The price of palm oil P2605 will oscillate in the range of 8700 - 9100 [3] Daily Views - Rapeseed Oil - Fundamental: Similar to soybean oil and palm oil, the MPOB report is slightly bearish, and the supply pressure will decrease in the subsequent production - reduction season. It is neutral [4] - Basis: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 9920, the basis is 789, and the spot price is at a premium to the futures price. It is bullish [4] - Inventory: On January 9, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 250,000 tons, down 20,000 tons from the previous 270,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease, and down 44% year - on - year. It is bullish [4] - Disk: The futures price is running below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward. It is neutral [4] - Main position: The short positions of the main rapeseed oil contract are decreasing. It is bearish [4] - Expectation: The price of rapeseed oil OI2605 will oscillate in the range of 8900 - 9300 [4] Recent利多利空Analysis - Bullish factors: The US soybean stock - to - sales ratio remains around 4%, indicating tight supply. There is a tremor season for palm oil [5] - Bearish factors: The oil and fat prices are at a relatively high level historically, and the domestic oil and fat inventory has been continuously accumulating. The macro - economy is weak, and the expected output of related oils and fats is high [5] - Main logic: The global oil and fat fundamentals are relatively loose [5]