交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 焦煤焦炭早报（2026-2-24） 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 焦煤： 6、预期：市场将延续供需双弱格局，价格以窄幅震荡为主。节后首周，下游主要以消耗节前库存为主， 采购需求释放有限，难以推动价格上涨，预计短期焦煤价格或暂稳运行。 焦煤 利 多：1.铁水产量上涨 2.供应难有增量 利 空：1.焦钢企业对原料煤采购放缓 2.钢材价格疲软 每日观点 焦炭： 1、基本面：春节期间，多数焦化企业维持正常生产节奏，未出现明显起伏，受春节物流效率降低影响， 焦企外运受限，厂内库存出现积压，钢厂对焦炭维持按需采购，主动补库意愿薄弱；中性 2、基差：现货市场价1620，基差-62；现货贴水期货；偏空 3、库存：钢厂库存692万吨，港口库存201万吨，独立焦企库存45万吨，总样本库存9 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 天胶早报- 2026年2月24日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 3 基本面数据 多空因素及主要风险点 4 基差 天胶： 1、基本面：供应开始增加，现货偏强，国内库存开始减少，轮胎开工率高位 中性 2、基差：现货16250，基差-65 中性 3、库存：上期所库存周环比增加，同比减少；青岛地区库存周环比增加，同比增加 中性 4、盘面：20日线向上，价格20日线上运行 偏多 5、主力持仓：主力净多，多增 偏多 6、预期：节后或高开，建议保持偏空思路 多空因素及主要风险点 • 利多 • 1、下游消费偏高 • 2、现货价格抗跌 • 3、国内反内卷 • 利空 • 1、国内经济指标偏空 • 2、贸易摩擦 • 风险点 • 世界经济衰退、国内经济增长不 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 • 尿素概述： • 利多 • 1、库存去库 • 2、储备需求良好 • 利空 • 1、日产历史高位 尿素早报 2026-2-24 大越期货投资咨询部 朱天一 从业资格证号：F3020542 投资咨询证号： Z0021831 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 • 尿素概述： • 1. 基本面：当前日产及开工率同比处高位，节后随着部分天然气装置重启，预期日产将维持 在高位，整体供应压力仍处历史同期高点。需求端，工业需求整体偏弱，复合肥、三聚氰胺当前 开工均在偏低位置。农需储备需求良好，随着节后春耕需求启动预计仍有上升空间。综合库存继 续回落，去库形态明显。外盘价格维持高位，出口内外价差继续拉大。2月12日，中国氮肥工业 协会发布了《关于市场炒作尿素指导价的说明》，呼吁市场参与者"不传谣、不信谣"，强调中 长期尿素价格应以稳为主。当前交割品现货1810（+10），基本面整体偏多； ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 贵金属周报（2.13-2.23） 大越期货投资咨询部 项唯一 从业资格证号： F3051846 投资咨询证号： Z0015764 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 上周回顾 2 每周周评 3 4 5 基本面数据 持仓数据 总结 | 指 标 | 前 收 | 最 高 | 最 低 | 涨 跌 | 涨跌幅 （%） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪金2604 | 1110 1 . | #N/A | #N/A | #N/A | - 0 11 . | | 沪银2604 | 19782 | #N/A | #N/A | #N/A | - 0 02 . | | 黄金2604 | 5130 | 5131 | 4868 5 . | 83 70 . | 1 66 . | | 白银2603 | 84 57 . | 84 ...

大越期货投资咨询部:祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号：Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目录 一、行情回顾 二、基本面（库存结构） 三、市场结构 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪铝周报（2.9~2.13） 上周回顾 沪铝周报： 春节假期的LME市场，铜价偏震荡运行。节后市场将进入基本面（国内季节性需求）与政策面（美国关 税动向）双重驱动的阶段。长期收益于国内4500万吨天花板产能约束支撑，铝价仍易涨难跌。假期回 来或有所高开，23000~24000元/吨运行为主，中期仍乐观震荡偏强，消费旺季即将来临，短期或偏多 操作。 期货主力 数据来源：博易大师 基本面 1、供需平衡表 2、铝 3、铝土矿 4、氧化铝 5、铝棒 供需平衡 数据来源：Wind 供需平衡 | | | | 中国年度供需平衡表 铝(万吨) | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | - ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪铜周报（2.9~2.13） 大越期货投资咨询部:祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号： Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目录 一、行情回顾 二、基本面（库存结构） 三、市场结构 上周回顾 沪铜周评: 春节假期的LME市场，铜价偏震荡运行，在供给刚性约束背景下，假期回来将逐步进入消费旺季的共同 支撑下，开局预计偏强，仍要关注库存去库力度。短期走势需密切关注复工后现货需求的实际强度与 库存去化速度，中期行情则取决于"预期"向"现实"转化的程度，能否库存出现大幅下降。宏观面， 美国的关税反复多变，情绪扰动仍大。假期回来或高开，在100000~130000元/吨运行为主。 期货主力 数据来源：博易大师 基本面 1、PMI 2、供需平衡表 3、库存 PMI 数据来源：Wind 供需平衡 2024供需紧平衡，2025过剩 数据来源：Wind 供需平 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report No information provided in the given content. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Option Quotes - Urea and synthetic rubber had the highest daily price increases among call and put options, with 55.56% and 86.88% respectively [1]. - Other notable increases included 52.40% for soybeans (call) and 34.23% for ferrosilicon (put) [1]. Option Positions - Glass had the largest daily change in call option positions at 21,671, while glass also had a significant change in put option positions at 15,422 [2]. - Other significant changes included 11,392 for soda ash (call) and 12,690 for soybeans (put) [2]. Option Position Put - Call Ratio (PCR) - Apple had the highest position PCR at 1.838, while soda ash had the lowest at 0.2721 [5]. Option Volume Put - Call Ratio (PCR) - Ferrosilicon had the highest volume PCR at 1.4399, while ethylene glycol had the lowest at 0.2174 [6]. Daily Selections - For call options, soybeans (a2605 - C - 4750) had a trend degree of 53 and a put - call ratio of 1.03 with 64 days remaining [7]. - For put options, ferrosilicon (SF605P5200) had a trend degree of - 55 and a put - call ratio of 0.95 with 60 days remaining [7]. Near - Expiry Options - For call options, casting aluminum alloy (ad2603C22200) needed a 0.64% increase in the underlying price to break even and a 1.03% increase for the option to double, with 1 day remaining [8][9]. - For put options, silver (ag2603P21100) needed a 2.83% decrease in the underlying price to break even and a 5.53% decrease for the option to double, with 1 day remaining [9][10].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - side of lithium carbonate showed a decrease last week, with a production of 20,744 tons, a 3.82% week - on - week reduction but still above the historical average. The demand - side saw a decrease in the inventory of sample enterprises of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials. Cost - side analysis indicates that the cost of externally purchased spodumene concentrate remained flat, while the cost of lithium mica increased. The overall situation shows a tight supply - demand balance, with the market influenced by news - driven sentiment oscillations [8]. - The expected supply of lithium carbonate in the next month is predicted to decline, with production and imports decreasing by 16.31% and 11.02% respectively compared to the previous month. However, the demand is expected to strengthen, and inventory may be depleted. The price of lithium carbonate 2605 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 141,920 - 155,200 [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views - **Fundamentals**: Supply decreased last week, demand - side inventory declined, and cost - side conditions varied. The cost of externally purchased spodumene concentrate was 141,645 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged daily, resulting in a loss of 5,050 yuan/ton. The cost of externally purchased lithium mica was 140,647 yuan/ton, a 2.70% daily increase, also with a loss. The production cost of the recycling end was generally higher than that of the ore end, while the quarterly cash production cost of the salt lake end was significantly lower, with sufficient profit margins and strong production motivation [8]. - **Basis**: On February 12th, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 142,500 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract was - 6,920 yuan/ton, indicating a spot discount to the futures [8]. - **Inventory**: The smelter inventory was 18,356 tons, remaining unchanged week - on - week and below the historical average. Downstream inventory increased by 1.91% week - on - week and was above the historical average. Other inventories decreased by 4.44% week - on - week and were above the historical average. The total inventory decreased by 2.39% week - on - week and was below the historical average [8]. - **Disk**: The MA20 was downward, and the futures price of the 05 contract closed below the MA20 [8]. - **Main Position**: The main position was net short, and short positions increased [8]. - **Expectation**: In February 2026, lithium carbonate production and imports are expected to decline, while demand is expected to strengthen, and inventory may be depleted. The price of lithium carbonate 2605 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 141,920 - 155,200 [8]. 3.2 Market Overview - **Price and Basis**: The prices of various lithium compounds, including lithium carbonate, lithium hydroxide, and related upstream products, showed different degrees of change. For example, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 3.26% to 142,500 yuan/ton, and the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased by 3.35% to 139,000 yuan/ton [14]. - **Supply - side Data**: The weekly operating rate remained unchanged at 87.14%. The daily production cost of spodumene remained flat at 141,645 yuan/ton, while the daily production cost of lithium mica increased by 2.70% to 140,647 yuan/ton. The monthly total production of lithium carbonate decreased by 11.49% to 26,950 tons [17]. - **Demand - side Data**: The monthly production of lithium iron phosphate decreased by 5.00% to 325,200 tons, and the monthly export of lithium iron phosphate decreased by 47.82% to 4,028,745 kilograms. The monthly total battery loading volume increased by 4.92% to 98,100 GWh [17]. 3.3 Supply - **Lithium Ore**: The price of lithium ore, production, and import volume showed different trends. The supply - demand balance of domestic lithium ore showed fluctuations, with a balance of 12,364 LCE in January 2026 [25][28]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The weekly operating rate of lithium carbonate production from different raw materials and the monthly production and import volume were presented. The supply - demand balance of lithium carbonate also showed fluctuations, with a balance of 2,693 physical tons in January 2026 [32][40]. - **Lithium Hydroxide**: The weekly capacity utilization rate, monthly production, export volume, and supply - demand balance of lithium hydroxide were analyzed. The supply - demand balance of lithium hydroxide was - 1,361 physical tons in January 2026 [43][45]. 3.4 Cost and Profit of Lithium Compounds - The cost and profit of externally purchased spodumene concentrate, lithium mica concentrate, and various recycling production methods for lithium carbonate were analyzed. The profit and cost of lithium hydroxide production by different methods, as well as the profit of related processing and conversion, were also presented [48][50][53]. 3.5 Inventory - The weekly inventory of lithium carbonate in smelters and the total inventory, as well as the monthly inventory of lithium hydroxide by source, were shown [56]. 3.6 Demand - **Lithium Battery - Power Battery**: The price, production, loading volume, and export volume of power batteries were analyzed. The monthly production of power battery cells and the monthly loading volume showed different trends [58]. - **Lithium Battery - Energy Storage**: The inventory, winning bids, operating rate, production, and cost of energy - storage batteries were presented [60]. - **Ternary Precursor**: The price, cost, profit, processing fee, capacity utilization rate, production, and supply - demand balance of ternary precursors were analyzed [63][66]. - **Ternary Material**: The price, cost, profit, processing fee, operating rate, production, and inventory of ternary materials were analyzed [70][72]. - **Phosphorus Iron/Phosphorus Iron Lithium**: The price, production cost, profit, capacity, operating rate, production, and export volume of phosphorus iron and phosphorus iron lithium were presented [74][77]. - **New Energy Vehicle**: The production, sales, export volume, sales penetration rate, retail - wholesale ratio, and dealer inventory of new energy vehicles were analyzed [82][83][86].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided about the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply side shows that in February 2026, the domestic refinery asphalt production plan is 1.023 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.30%. The weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt samples is 26.1266%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.20 percentage points. The refinery has reduced production this week, alleviating supply pressure, and it is expected to further reduce supply pressure next week [8]. - On the demand side, the current demand is lower than the historical average. The heavy - traffic asphalt start - up rate is 24.5%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.04 percentage points; the construction asphalt start - up rate is 3.3%, remaining unchanged month - on - month; the modified asphalt start - up rate is 4.6163%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.10 percentage points; the road modified asphalt start - up rate is 9%, a month - on - month decrease of 5.00 percentage points; the waterproofing membrane start - up rate is 15%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.00 percentage points [8]. - In terms of cost, the daily asphalt processing profit is - 29.73 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 40.00%. The weekly Shandong refinery delayed coking profit is 81.8643 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 5.51%. The asphalt processing loss has decreased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking has increased. Crude oil prices remain stable, and it is expected that the cost support will remain stable in the short term [8]. - The basis on February 12 shows that the Shandong spot price is 3,210 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 04 contract is - 133 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures, which is bearish [8]. - Regarding inventory, the social inventory is 938,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.16%; the in - plant inventory is 583,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.15%; the port diluted asphalt inventory is 1.01 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 20.24%. Social inventory continues to accumulate, in - plant inventory continues to deplete, and port inventory continues to accumulate, which is bullish [8]. - On the trading board, MA20 is upward, and the futures price of the 04 contract closes above MA20, which is bullish [8]. - The main positions are net short, with an increase in short positions, which is bearish [8]. - Overall, the refinery's recent production plan has been reduced, alleviating supply pressure. Affected by the off - season, demand is sluggish and fails to meet expectations. Inventory continues to deplete. Crude oil prices remain stable, and cost support remains stable in the short term. It is expected that the futures price will fluctuate within a narrow range in the short term, with the asphalt 2604 fluctuating in the range of 3,308 - 3,378 [8]. 3. Section - by - Section Summaries 3.1. Asphalt Market Overview - Futures closing prices: The prices of most contracts decreased. For example, the 04 contract price decreased from 3,373 to 3,343, a decrease of 0.89% [15]. - Basis: The basis of most contracts changed, with the 04 contract basis changing from - 163 to - 133, a change of - 18.40% [15]. - Some inter - month spreads: The 3 - 6 spread decreased from - 12 to - 21, a change of 75.00%; the 3 - 9 spread decreased from 19 to 5, a change of - 73.68% [15]. - Registered warehouse receipts: The Shanghai Futures Exchange's registered warehouse receipts increased from 48,290 to 53,070, an increase of 9.90% [15]. - Weekly inventory: Social inventory increased to 938,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.16%; in - plant inventory decreased to 583,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.16%; port diluted asphalt inventory increased to 1.01 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 20.24% [17]. - Weekly start - up rate: The Shandong refinery start - up rate decreased to 23.5%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.49%; the national heavy - traffic asphalt start - up rate decreased to 26.1266%, a month - on - month decrease of 4.39% [17]. - Weekly production and loss: The sample enterprise production decreased to 436,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.39%; the weekly maintenance volume increased to 1.03 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.78% [17]. - Weekly shipment volume: The national shipment volume decreased to 211,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.33%; the Shandong shipment volume decreased to 33,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 23.26%; the East China shipment volume increased to 72,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 17.03% [17]. - Asphalt coking profit: The daily asphalt profit is - 29.73 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 40.55%; the weekly delayed coking asphalt spread is 81.8643 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 405.51% [17]. - Downstream demand start - up rate: The heavy - traffic asphalt start - up rate decreased to 24.5%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.92%; the construction asphalt start - up rate remained at 3.3%, unchanged month - on - month; the modified asphalt start - up rate decreased to 4.62%, a month - on - month decrease of 19.24%; the road modified asphalt start - up rate decreased to 9.00%, a month - on - month decrease of 35.71%; the waterproofing membrane start - up rate decreased to 15.00%, a month - on - month decrease of 16.67% [17]. 3.2. Asphalt Futures Market - Basis Trend The report provides the historical trends of the Shandong and East China asphalt basis from 2020 to 2026, which helps to analyze the relationship between spot and futures prices [20][22]. 3.3. Asphalt Futures Market - Spread Analysis - Main contract spread: The report shows the historical trends of the 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contract spreads from 2020 to 2026, which is useful for spread trading analysis [24][25]. - Asphalt - crude oil price trend: It presents the historical price trends of asphalt, Brent crude oil, and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil from 2020 to 2026, helping to understand the relationship between asphalt and crude oil prices [28]. - Crude oil cracking spread: It shows the historical trends of the asphalt - SC, asphalt - WTI, and asphalt - Brent crude oil cracking spreads from 2020 to 2026, which is important for analyzing the profitability of asphalt production [30][31][32]. - Asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil price ratio trend: It provides the historical trends of the asphalt - SC and asphalt - fuel oil price ratios from 2020 to 2026, which can assist in analyzing the relative value of different products [34][35]. 3.4. Asphalt Spot Market - Market Price Trends in Different Regions The report shows the historical price trends of heavy - traffic asphalt in East China and Shandong from 2020 to 2026, which helps to understand the regional price differences of asphalt [37][38]. 3.5. Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - Profit analysis: - Asphalt profit: It presents the historical trends of asphalt profit from 2019 to 2026, which is useful for analyzing the profitability of asphalt production [40][41]. - Coking - asphalt profit spread trend: It shows the historical trends of the coking - asphalt profit spread from 2020 to 2026, which can help to understand the profit difference between coking and asphalt production [43][44][45]. - Supply side: - Shipment volume: It shows the historical trends of weekly shipment volume from 2020 to 2026, which helps to analyze the supply situation of asphalt [46][47]. - Diluted asphalt port inventory: It presents the historical trends of domestic diluted asphalt port inventory from 2021 to 2026, which is important for understanding the inventory situation of raw materials [49][50]. - Production: It shows the historical trends of weekly and monthly asphalt production from 2019 to 2026, which helps to analyze the supply capacity of asphalt [52][53]. - Marru oil price and Venezuelan crude oil monthly production trend: It presents the historical trends of Marru oil price and Venezuelan crude oil monthly production from 2018 to 2026, which is useful for understanding the impact of raw material supply on asphalt production [56][58]. - Refinery asphalt production: It shows the historical trends of refinery asphalt production from 2019 to 2026, which helps to analyze the production capacity of refineries [59][60]. - Start - up rate: It shows the historical trends of weekly asphalt start - up rate from 2023 to 2026, which helps to analyze the production activity of the asphalt industry [62][63]. - Maintenance loss estimate: It presents the historical trends of maintenance loss estimate from 2018 to 2026, which is important for understanding the impact of maintenance on asphalt production [65][66]. - Inventory: - Exchange warehouse receipts: It shows the historical trends of exchange warehouse receipts (total, social inventory, and in - plant inventory) from 2019 to 2026, which helps to understand the inventory situation in the futures market [68][69][70]. - Social inventory and in - plant inventory: It presents the historical trends of social inventory (70 samples) and in - plant inventory (54 samples) from 2022 to 2026, which helps to understand the inventory situation in the spot market [72][73]. - In - plant inventory inventory ratio: It shows the historical trends of in - plant inventory inventory ratio from 2018 to 2026, which is useful for analyzing the inventory management of refineries [75][76]. - Import and export situation: - Asphalt export and import trends: It shows the historical trends of asphalt export and import from 2019 to 2025, which helps to understand the international trade situation of asphalt [78][79]. - South Korean asphalt import price difference trend: It presents the historical trends of the South Korean asphalt import price difference from 2020 to 2026, which is important for analyzing the competitiveness of imported asphalt [82][83]. - Demand side: - Petroleum coke production: It shows the historical trends of petroleum coke production from 2019 to 2025, which helps to understand the demand for petroleum coke in the asphalt industry [84][85]. - Apparent consumption: It presents the historical trends of apparent consumption from 2019 to 2025, which helps to analyze the overall demand for asphalt [87][88]. - Downstream demand: - Highway construction traffic fixed - asset investment trend: It shows the historical trends of highway construction traffic fixed - asset investment from 2020 to 2025, which helps to understand the demand for asphalt in highway construction [90][91]. - New local special bond trend: It presents the historical trends of new local special bonds from 2019 to 2025, which is important for analyzing the investment in infrastructure construction [92]. - Infrastructure investment completion year - on - year: It shows the historical trends of infrastructure investment completion year - on - year from 2020 to 2024, which helps to understand the growth rate of infrastructure investment [92]. - Downstream machinery demand trend: It presents the historical trends of asphalt concrete paver sales, excavator monthly working hours, domestic excavator sales, and road roller sales from 2019 to 2025, which helps to understand the demand for asphalt in the construction machinery industry [94][95][97]. - Asphalt start - up rate: - Heavy - traffic asphalt start - up rate: It shows the historical trends of heavy - traffic asphalt start - up rate from 2019 to 2025, which helps to analyze the production activity of heavy - traffic asphalt [99][100]. - Asphalt start - up rate by use: It presents the historical trends of construction asphalt start - up rate and modified asphalt start - up rate from 2019 to 2025, which helps to understand the production situation of different types of asphalt [102][103]. - Downstream start - up situation: It shows the historical trends of shoe - material SBS modified asphalt start - up rate, shoe - material TPR start - up rate, road modified asphalt start - up rate, and waterproofing membrane modified asphalt start - up rate from 2021 to 2026, which helps to understand the start - up situation of downstream industries [105][106][107]. - Supply - demand balance sheet: It shows the monthly supply - demand balance sheet of asphalt from 2024 to 2026, including asphalt monthly production, import volume, export volume, downstream demand, social inventory, in - plant inventory, and diluted asphalt port inventory, which helps to analyze the overall supply - demand situation of asphalt [109][110].

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - There is no industry investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - **For Soybean Meal (M2605)**: It is expected to oscillate between 2780 and 2840. Influenced by the upward trend of US soybeans, spot price premium, and a mix of news, it may maintain a range - bound oscillation in the short term. The market is affected by factors like China's soybean procurement and South American weather [9]. - **For Soybeans (A2605)**: It is predicted to fluctuate between 4620 and 4740. Supported by the upward movement of US soybeans and strong domestic spot prices and demand, but restricted by factors such as the implementation of the China - US trade agreement and the arrival of imported Brazilian soybeans after the Spring Festival, there is a risk of a pull - back after a rise [11]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Daily Hints - There is no specific content for daily hints in the report. 3.2 Recent News - The preliminary agreement on China - US tariff negotiations is short - term positive for US soybeans, but the quantity of China's soybean purchases and US soybean weather are uncertain. The US market is oscillating above the 1000 - point mark, awaiting further guidance on US soybean growth and harvest, imported soybean arrivals, and subsequent China - US trade negotiations [13]. - The arrival volume of imported soybeans in China will continue to decline in Q1. The soybean inventory of oil mills remained high in January. With relatively normal weather for soybean planting and growth in South America, soybean meal has returned to a range - bound oscillation in the short term [13]. - The decrease in domestic hog farming profits has led to low expectations for hog replenishment. The demand for soybean meal remained strong in January, supporting the price of soybean meal. Affected by the upward trend of US soybeans and the recovery of soybean meal demand, it will maintain a range - bound oscillation pattern [13]. - The soybean meal inventory of domestic oil mills remains high. There is still a possibility of speculation on US soybean产区 weather, and influenced by the preliminary agreement on China - US trade negotiations, soybean meal will maintain a range - bound oscillation in the short term, awaiting the clarification of US soybean production and subsequent China - US trade negotiations [13]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Concerns 3.3.1 Soybean Meal - **Bullish Factors**: The preliminary China - US trade negotiation agreement is short - term positive for US soybeans; the soybean meal inventory of domestic oil mills is not under pressure; there are still uncertainties in the weather of South American soybean - growing areas [14]. - **Bearish Factors**: The total arrival volume of imported soybeans in China remained high in January; with normal weather, South American soybeans are expected to have a bumper harvest [14]. - **Main Logic**: The market is focused on the impact of US soybean harvest weather and the follow - up of the preliminary China - US trade agreement [14]. 3.3.2 Soybeans - **Bullish Factors**: The cost of imported soybeans supports the bottom of the domestic soybean market; the expected recovery of domestic soybean demand supports the price expectation of domestic soybeans [15]. - **Bearish Factors**: Brazil is expected to have a bumper soybean harvest, and China has increased its purchases of Brazilian soybeans; the increase in the production of new - season domestic soybeans suppresses the price expectation of beans [15]. - **Main Logic**: The market is focused on the impact of US soybean weather and the China - US trade tariff game [15]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal Transaction Data**: From February 4th to 12th, the transaction average price of soybean meal fluctuated between 3117 - 3151 yuan, and the transaction volume decreased from 26.17 million tons to 1.3 million tons. The transaction price of rapeseed meal fluctuated between 2430 - 2450 yuan, and the transaction volume was mostly 0, with a maximum of 3 million tons on February 6th. The average price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal gradually widened from 667 yuan to 701 yuan [16]. - **Soybean and Meal Futures and Spot Prices**: From February 5th to 12th, the futures prices of soybeans (including bean 1 and bean 2) and soybean meal generally showed an upward trend, and the spot prices also had corresponding changes [18]. - **Soybean and Meal Warehouse Receipt Statistics**: From February 3rd to 12th, the number of bean 1 warehouse receipts remained relatively stable, with a slight decrease on February 6th; the number of bean 2 warehouse receipts appeared on February 5th and then decreased; the number of soybean meal warehouse receipts increased on February 4th and then remained relatively stable [20]. - **Global and Domestic Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheets**: Provide data on the supply - demand balance of global and domestic soybeans from 2016 to 2025, including harvest area, initial inventory, production, total supply, total consumption, ending inventory, and inventory - to - consumption ratio, reflecting the long - term supply - demand situation of soybeans [32][33]. - **Soybean Planting and Harvest Progress in Different Regions**: Include the planting and harvest progress of soybeans in Argentina (2023/24, 2024/25, 2025/26), the United States (2024), and Brazil (2024/25, 2025/26), showing the development of soybean production in different regions [34][39][42]. - **USDA's Monthly Supply - Demand Reports in the Past Six Months**: Provide data on planting area, yield per unit, production, ending inventory, new - bean exports, crushing volume, and the production of Brazilian and Argentine soybeans from July 2025 to February 2026 [44]. 3.5 Positioning Data - There is no specific content for positioning data in the report. 3.6 Other Market Conditions - **Soybean Meal Market**: Soybean meal futures have returned to an oscillation, while the spot price is relatively stable, and the spot premium remains at a relatively high level. The soybean crushing volume of oil mills has returned to a high level, and the soybean meal production in December increased year - on - year. The unfulfilled contracts of oil mills continue to decline, indicating a weakening of stocking demand. The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal has narrowed, and the price difference of the 2605 contract has shown slight fluctuations [23][25][27][29]. - **Imported Soybean and Hog Market**: The weekly export inspection volume of US soybeans has decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year. The arrival volume of imported soybeans has entered a low level at the beginning of the year and has recently decreased year - on - year. The soybean inventory of oil mills continues to decline, while the soybean meal inventory has rebounded from a low level. The import cost of Brazilian soybeans has oscillated downward following US soybeans, and the profit on the futures market has shown slight fluctuations. The hog inventory has slightly increased year - on - year, while the sow inventory has decreased year - on - year and slightly declined month - on - month. The hog price has shown slight fluctuations recently, while the piglet price has slightly rebounded. The proportion of large hogs in China has increased, and the cost of secondary fattening of hogs has continued to rise. Domestic hog farming has achieved a small profit, and the pig - to - grain ratio and feed - to - meat ratio have fallen to a low level [45][47][54][56][62][64].