交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪锌期货早报-2025年11月7日 大越期货投资咨询部 祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号： Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85225791 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 指标体系 沪锌: 1、基本面：世界金属统计局（WBMS）公布的最新报告显示，2025年8月，全 球锌板产量为115.07万吨，消费量为117.17万吨，供应短缺2.1万吨。2025 年1-8月，全球锌板产量为908.85万吨，消费量为936.98万吨，供应短缺 28.13万吨。2025年8月，全球锌矿产量为106.96万吨。2025年1-8月，全球 锌矿产量为844.57万吨；偏多。 数据来源：SHFE 11月6日国内主要现货市场行情 2、基差：现货22580，基差-95；中性。 3、库存：11月6日LME锌库存较上日增加100吨至34100吨，11月6日上期所锌 库存仓单较上日减少401吨至68022吨；偏空 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沥青期货早报 2025年11月6日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点 供给端来看，根据隆众，2025年11月份地炼沥青总计划排产量为131.2万吨，环比增 幅18.2%,同比降幅6.5%。本周国内石油沥青样本产能利用率为33.3174%，环比增加 0.239个百分点，全国样本企业出货33.13万吨，环比增加13.98%,样本企业产量为 55.6万吨，环比增加0.72%,样本企业装置检修量预估为60.8万吨，环比减少10.05%, 本周炼厂有所增产，提升供应压力。下周或将增加供给压力。 需求端来看，重交沥青开工率为31.5%，环比增加0.01个百分点，低于历史平均水 平；建筑沥青开工率为11.6%，环比增加0.17个百分点，低于 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 PVC期货早报 2025年11月6日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 供给端来看，据隆众统计，2025年10月PVC产量为212.812万吨，环比增加4.79%；本周样本企业产能利 用率为78.26%，环比增加0.02个百分点；电石法企业产量32.925万吨，环比增加4.10%,乙烯法企业产 量14.771万吨，环比减少1.76%；本周供给压力有所增加；下周预计检修有所减少，预计排产少量增加 需求端来看，下游整体开工率为50.54%，环比增加.68个百分点，高于历史平均水平；下游型材开工率 为37.83%，环比增加.96个百分点，低于历史平均水平；下游管材开工率为42%，环比增加.799个百分 点，低于历史平均水平；下游薄膜开工率为7 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-11-06甲醇早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 甲醇2601： 1、基本面：基本面转弱的预期下，预计短期国内甲醇延续偏弱运行。内地来看，多套烯烃装置在11月份有检修计划， 传统下游醋酸开工偏低、鲁北大型甲醇制氢装置停车检修，需求面的利空作用明显。当前国内甲醇开工高位，以及上游 甲醇工厂仍维持低库存仍然出货为主。综合来看供需矛盾短期内难有缓和，同时考虑到当前甲醇价格已处于低位，贸易 商谨慎做空对底部价格有支撑，预计跌幅有限。港口方面，海外高供应预期和港口高库存空头氛围压制下，预计本周港 口甲醇市场延续弱势下跌，关注制裁事件后续影响、伊朗发货情况、沿海MTO开工等情况；中性 2、基差：江苏甲醇现货价为2115元/吨，01合约基差-26，现货贴水期货；偏空 3、库存：截至 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 豆粕早报 2025-11-06 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 5 持仓数据 ✸豆粕观点和策略 豆粕M2601：3040至3100区间震荡 1.基本面：美豆震荡回升，市场等待中国采购美豆进展和技术性震荡整理，美豆短期偏强震 荡等待中美贸易协议执行后续和美国大豆产区收割天气进一步指引。国内豆粕震荡回升， 美豆走势带动和技术性震荡整理，但需求短期处于淡季和现货价格贴水压制盘面反弹高 度，短期或维持震荡格局。中性 2.基差：现货3010（华东），基差-63，贴水期货。偏空 3.库存：油厂豆粕库存115.3万吨，上周105.46万吨，环比增加9.33%，去年同期98.41万吨， 同比增加17.16%。偏空 4.盘面：价格在20日均线上方且方向向上。偏多 5.主力持仓：主力空单减少，资金 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 • LLDPE概述： • 利多 • 1、俄油面临新制裁，油价反弹 • 2、中美会谈达成阶段性缓和 • 利空 • 1、需求同比偏弱 • 2、四季度新增投产多 • 主要逻辑：供过于求，国内宏观政策 • 主要风险点：原油大幅波动、国际政策博弈 聚烯烃早报 2025-11-6 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 • LLDPE概述： • 1. 基本面：宏观方面，10月份，官方PMI为49，比上月下降0.8个百分点，制造业景气度有所 回落。原油中长期 "供增需减" 格局未改，对聚烯烃成本端支撑有限。10 月 30 日，中美两 国领导人在韩国釜山举行面对面会晤，美方取消针对中国商品的 10%"芬太尼关税"，暂停对华 海事、物流等领域 301 调查措施一年，中方同步调整反制措施，10月下旬，美欧 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 工业硅期货早报 2025年11月6日 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 每日观点——工业硅 | | | | | 供给端来看 ， | | 上周工业硅供应量为10万吨 | | ， | 环比有所减少0 | 99% . 。 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 需求端来看 ， | 上周工业硅需求为8 | . | 7万吨 ， | 环比减少7 | 44% . . | | 需求持续低迷 . | | | | | | | | 多晶硅库存为26 | 1万吨 . ， | | ， | 硅片亏损 | ， | 电池片亏损 ， | 组件盈 | 处于中性水平 | | | | | | 利 ； | | 有机硅库存为56300吨 ， | 处于低位 | ， | 有机硅生产利润为 | | -520元/吨 | 处 ， | | | | | | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The production of lithium carbonate last week was 21,080 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 1.07%, higher than the historical average. The inventory of lithium iron phosphate sample enterprises last week was 104,979 tons, a week-on-week increase of 0.61%, and the inventory of ternary material sample enterprises was 18,890 tons, a week-on-week increase of 1.60% [8]. - In October 2025, the production of lithium carbonate was 92,260 physical tons, and the predicted production for next month is 92,080 physical tons, a month-on-month decrease of 0.19%. The import volume of lithium carbonate in October 2025 was 22,000 physical tons, and the predicted import volume for next month is 27,000 physical tons, a month-on-month increase of 22.73%. It is expected that the demand will strengthen next month, and the inventory may be reduced. The cost of 6% concentrate CIF decreased on a daily basis and was lower than the historical average. The lithium carbonate 2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 78,080 - 80,200 [9]. - The main logic is that the mismatch between production capacity leads to strong supply and weak demand, and the downward trend is difficult to change [12]. Summaries by Directory 1. Daily Viewpoints - **Supply Side**: Last week's lithium carbonate production was 21,080 tons, down 1.07% week-on-week and higher than the historical average. In October 2025, production was 92,260 tons, and next month's forecast is 92,080 tons, a 0.19% decrease. The import volume in October was 22,000 tons, and next month's forecast is 27,000 tons, a 22.73% increase [8][9]. - **Demand Side**: The inventory of lithium iron phosphate sample enterprises last week was 104,979 tons, up 0.61% week-on-week, and the inventory of ternary material sample enterprises was 18,890 tons, up 1.60% week-on-week. It is expected that the demand will strengthen next month, and the inventory may be reduced [8][9]. - **Cost Side**: The daily price of 6% concentrate CIF decreased and was lower than the historical average. The cost of purchasing spodumene concentrate was 78,943 yuan/ton, a daily decrease of 0.86%, with a profit of 425 yuan/ton. The cost of purchasing lithium mica was 82,750 yuan/ton, a daily decrease of 0.82%, with a loss of -5,412 yuan/ton. The production cost at the recycling end was close to that at the ore end, and the production enthusiasm was average. The quarterly cash production cost at the salt lake end was 31,477 yuan/ton, significantly lower than that at the ore end, with sufficient profit margins and strong production motivation [9]. - **Market Outlook**: The lithium carbonate 2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 78,080 - 80,200 [9]. 2. Fundamental/Position Data - **Lithium Carbonate Market Overview**: The futures closing prices of various contracts showed different degrees of increase or decrease. The basis of most contracts decreased. The prices of upstream raw materials such as lithium ore and lithium carbonate also changed to varying degrees, with some increasing and some decreasing [14]. - **Supply - Side Data**: The weekly operating rate was 74.39%, unchanged from the previous period. The monthly production of lithium carbonate in October was 92,260 tons, an increase of 5,000 tons compared to the previous month, a 5.73% increase. The monthly import volume of lithium concentrate was 520,514 tons, an increase of 49,915 tons compared to the previous month, a 10.61% increase. The monthly import volume of lithium carbonate was 19,596.90 tons, a decrease of 2,250.01 tons compared to the previous month, a -10.30% decrease [17]. - **Demand - Side Data**: The monthly operating rate of various products increased to varying degrees. The monthly production of lithium iron phosphate was 394,350 tons, an increase of 37,600 tons compared to the previous month, a 10.54% increase. The monthly production of ternary materials increased to varying degrees. The monthly total battery loading volume was 76,000 GWh, an increase of 13,500 GWh compared to the previous month, a 21.60% increase [17].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - For gold, due to better - than - expected US ADP and PMI services data, risk appetite improved, leading to a rebound in gold prices. The medium - to - long - term trend is slightly bearish, and the price will fluctuate. The premium of Shanghai gold remains at 0 yuan/gram [4]. - For silver, also driven by better - than - expected US ADP and PMI services data, risk appetite improved, resulting in a significant rebound in silver prices. The long - term trend is slightly bearish, and the price will oscillate. The silver premium has expanded to 310 yuan/gram [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day's Review - **Gold**: The US ADP and PMI services data were better than expected, risk appetite improved, and the price of COMEX gold futures rose 0.75% to $3990.40 per ounce. The 10 - year US Treasury yield rose 7.78 basis points to 4.159%, and the US dollar index fell 0.05% to 100.16. The offshore RMB appreciated slightly against the US dollar to 7.1312 [4]. - **Silver**: The US ADP and PMI services data were better than expected, risk appetite improved, and the price of COMEX silver futures rose 1.20% to $47.86 per ounce. The 10 - year US Treasury yield fell 2.72 basis points to 4.083%, and the US dollar index rose 0.34% to 100.21. The offshore RMB depreciated against the US dollar to 7.1352 [6]. 2. Daily Tips - **Gold**: The basis is - 2.66, with the spot at a discount to the futures; the inventory of gold futures warrants is 87,816 kg, unchanged; the 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is below the 20 - day moving average; the main net position is long, and the main long position decreased [4][5]. - **Silver**: The basis is - 19, with the spot at a discount to the futures; the inventory of Shanghai silver futures warrants is 665,610 kg, an increase of 6,759 kg from the previous day; the 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is below the 20 - day moving average; the main net position is long, and the main long position increased [6]. 3. Today's Focus - At 08:30, pay attention to Australia's September goods and services trade balance, and Japan's October final services and composite PMI values. - It is time - undetermined that the 2025 World Internet Conference Wuzhen Summit will open (lasting until November 9), Xiaoma Zhixing and Wenyuan Zhixing plan to be listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange simultaneously, and iFlytek will hold an offline main forum in Hefei (releasing the latest progress of the Spark large - model). - At 10:05, focus on Vietnam's October import - export and trade balance. - At 13:00, pay attention to India's October final services and composite PMI values. - At 15:00, focus on Germany's September industrial output. - At 16:00, the European Central Bank will hold the "Money Market 2025" conference, with Executive Board member Schnabel delivering a keynote speech and ECB Governing Council member Kocher speaking. - At 16:30, ECB Vice - President Guindos will attend a seminar on "Current Policy Challenges in the Eurozone". - At 17:00, the Norwegian Central Bank will announce its interest rate decision. - At 19:45, ECB Governing Council member and Bank of France Governor Villeroy will speak. - At 20:00, the Bank of England will announce its interest rate decision, meeting minutes, and monetary policy report. - At 20:30, ECB Governing Council member and German Central Bank President Nagel will discuss the global economy at a conference in Frankfurt. - At 22:00, ECB Governing Council member and German Central Bank President Nagel will discuss financial stability in Frankfurt. - At 23:30, Bank of Canada Governor Macklem and Senior Deputy Governor Rogers will attend a Senate committee hearing. - At 00:00 the next day, New York Fed President Williams will speak, and Fed Governor Barr will participate in a discussion. - At 01:00 the next day, Cleveland Fed President Hammack will speak at the New York Economic Club. - At 02:30 the next day, ECB Chief Economist Lane will speak. - At 04:30 the next day, Fed Governor Waller will participate in a conference on central banks and payments. - At 05:30 the next day, Philadelphia Fed President Paulson will speak. - At 06:30 the next day, St. Louis Fed President Musalem will speak [16]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Gold**: The basis is - 2.66, with the spot at a discount to the futures; the inventory of gold futures warrants is 87,816 kg, unchanged; the 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is below the 20 - day moving average; the main net position is long, and the main long position decreased [4][5]. - **Silver**: The basis is - 19, with the spot at a discount to the futures; the inventory of Shanghai silver futures warrants is 665,610 kg, an increase of 6,759 kg from the previous day; the 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is below the 20 - day moving average; the main net position is long, and the main long position increased [6]. 5. Position Data - **Gold**: The long position of the top 20 holders of Shanghai gold decreased by 0.95% to 160,330, the short position decreased by 1.30% to 65,685, and the net position decreased by 0.71% to 94,645 [31]. - **Silver**: The long position of the top 20 holders of Shanghai silver decreased by 1.77% to 330,613, the short position decreased by 3.62% to 246,681, and the net position increased by 4.12% to 83,932 [33].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证号： Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 铁矿石早报（2025-11-6） 每日观点 利多： 利空： 铁矿石： 1、基本面：钢厂铁水产量开始减少，供应端本月到港水平有所降低，总体供需宽松，港口库存减少，市场 将出台粗钢压减政策，贸易战缓和；中性 2、基差：日照港PB粉现货折合盘面价824，基差48；日照港巴混现货折合盘面价845，基差69，现货升水期 货；偏多 3、库存：港口库存15272.93万吨，环比增加，同比减少；中性 4、盘面：价格在20日线下方,20日线向下；偏空 5、主力持仓：铁矿主力持仓净多，多减；偏多 6、预期：国内需求降低，去产能的计划冲击市场，高位震荡思路 1.铁水产量保持高位。 2.港口库存减少。 3.进口亏损 4.下游钢材价格上涨，高价原料承受能力强 1. 后期发 ...