大越期货投资咨询部 ：祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号：Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 铝: 1、基本面：碳中和控制产能扩张，下游需求不强劲，房地产延续疲软，宏观短期情绪多变；中性。 2、基差：现货20670，基差-15，贴水期货，中性。 3、库存：上期所铝库存较上周减765吨至 127734吨；中性。 4、盘面：收盘价收于20均线下，20均线向上运行；中性。 5、主力持仓：主力净持仓多，多增；偏多。 6、预期：碳中和催发铝行业变革，长期利多铝价，美再扩大钢铝关税，多空交织，铝价震荡运行. 沪铝早报- 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 近期利多利空分析 利多： 利空： 逻辑： 降息和需求疲软博弈 1、碳中和控制产能扩张。 2、俄乌地缘政治扰动，影响俄铝供应。 3、降息 1、全球经济并不乐观，高铝价会压制下游消费。 2、铝材出口退税取消 数据来源：Wind 期 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 贵金属早报—— 2025年9月23日 大越期货投资咨询部 项唯一 从业资格证号： F3051846 投资咨询证号： Z0015764 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 黄金 6、预期：今日关注欧英美9月PMI数据、美联储主席和委员讲话、美国二季度经常帐。 美联储降息预期高涨，美元指数回落，金价继续走高，再创新高。沪金溢价继续收 敛至-12元/克，人民币走强预期强劲。降息预期高涨再度推高金价，临近期权合约 到期，或有大幅波动可能。 2、基差：黄金期货846.5，现货840.5，基差-6，现货贴水期货；偏空 3、库存：黄金期货仓单57429千克，不变；偏空 4、盘面：20日均线向上，k线在20日均线上方；偏多 5、主力持仓：主力净持仓多，主力多减；偏多 白银 1、基本面：降息预期高 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沥青期货早报 2025年9月23日 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点 供给端来看，根据隆众，2025年8月份国内沥青总计划排产量为241.3万吨，环比降幅5.1%, 同比增幅17.1%。本周国内石油沥青样本产能利用率为36.3734%，环比减少0.06个百分点， 全国样本企业出货31.36万吨，环比增加31.10%,样本企业产量为60.7万吨，环比减少0.16%, 样本企业装置检修量预估为69.9万吨，环比增加2.95%,本周炼厂有所减产，降低供应压力。 下周或将增加供给压力。 需求端来看，重交沥青开工率为34.4%，环比减少0.01个百分点，低于历史平均水平；建筑沥 青开工率为18.2%，环比持平，低于历史平均水平；改性沥青开工率为20.2298%，环比增加 1.71个百分点，高于历史平均水平；道路改性沥青开工率为30.31%，环比增加1.69个百分 点，低于历史平均水平；防水卷材开工率为36.57%，环比增加0.50个百分点，低于历史平均 水平；总体来看，当前需求低于历史平均水平。 1、基本面: 偏多。 成本端来看，日度加工沥青利润为- ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Views - For industrial silicon, the supply production schedule has increased and is near the historical average level, demand recovery is at a low level, and cost support has increased slightly. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8815 - 9085 [6]. - For polysilicon, the supply production schedule continues to decrease, while the demand for wafers, cells, and components continues to increase. Overall demand shows continuous recovery, and cost support has strengthened. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 50040 - 51940 [8]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Views Industrial Silicon - Supply: Last week, the industrial silicon supply was 92,000 tons, a 2.22% week - on - week increase [6]. - Demand: Last week, the demand was 80,000 tons, a 2.56% week - on - week increase. Polysilicon inventory is at a low level, wafers and cells are in a loss state, and components are profitable. Organic silicon inventory is at a high level, with a production profit of - 447 yuan/ton and a comprehensive开工 rate of 71.12%, flat week - on - week and lower than the historical average. Aluminum alloy ingot inventory is at a high level [6]. - Cost: In Xinjiang, the production loss of sample oxygen - passing 553 is 3050 yuan/ton, and the cost support during the wet season has weakened [6]. - Basis: On September 22, the spot price of non - oxygen - passing silicon in East China was 9200 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was 250 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [6]. - Inventory: Social inventory is 543,000 tons, a 0.74% week - on - week increase; sample enterprise inventory is 174,950 tons, a 0.57% week - on - week increase; major port inventory is 120,000 tons, an 0.84% week - on - week increase [6]. - Disk: MA20 is upward, and the futures price of the 11 - contract closed above MA20 [6]. - Main Position: The main position is net short, with an increase in short positions [6]. Polysilicon - Supply: Last week, the polysilicon output was 31,000 tons, a 3.79% month - on - month decrease. The production schedule for September is expected to be 126,700 tons [8]. - Demand: Last week, the wafer output was 13.92GW, a 0.28% week - on - week increase, and the inventory was 168,700 tons, a 1.93% week - on - week increase. Currently, wafer production is in a loss state. The production schedule for September is 57.53GW, a 2.73% month - on - month increase. The cell output in August was 58.27GW, a 0.13% month - on - month increase [8]. - Cost: The average cost of N - type polysilicon in the industry is 36,150 yuan/ton, and the production profit is 15,000 yuan/ton [8]. - Basis: On September 22, the basis of the 11 - contract was 1660 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [8]. - Inventory: The weekly inventory is 204,000 tons, a 6.84% week - on - week decrease, at a low level compared to the same period in history [8]. - Disk: MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the 11 - contract closed below MA20 [8]. - Main Position: The main position is net long, with a decrease in long positions [8]. 2. Fundamental/Position Data Industrial Silicon - Price: Most contract prices of industrial silicon futures decreased compared to the previous value, while some spot prices increased slightly [14]. - Inventory: Various types of inventories, including social inventory, sample enterprise inventory, and major port inventory, showed different degrees of increase [14]. - Production and Capacity Utilization: The weekly output of sample enterprises increased, and the output in Xinjiang increased significantly [14]. - Cost and Profit: The cost and profit of industrial silicon in different regions showed different trends, with some regions in a loss state [14]. Polysilicon - Price: Most contract prices of polysilicon futures decreased compared to the previous value, and the prices of wafers, cells, and components showed different degrees of stability or slight changes [16]. - Inventory: The inventory of wafers decreased, while the inventory of cells increased, and the inventory of components decreased [16]. - Production and Demand: The production of wafers, cells, and components increased, and the export of cells increased significantly [16].

大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-09-23甲醇早报 1 每日提示 2 多空关注 3 基本面数据 4 检修状况 甲醇2601： 1、基本面：多空并存下，预计本周国内甲醇市场或震荡整理为主。内地方面，随着部分下游用户节前备货进入尾声， 传统下游需求或弱化，以及假期临近运输受限贸易商持货意愿不强，另外港口高库存对其周边地区均有一定制约，后期 内地甲醇上涨或有一定压力。但同时产区甲醇工厂库存紧张，贸易商做空谨慎，以及运费上涨对销区价格有一定托底， 预计内地甲醇回调空间同样有限。港口方面，短期看，新兴下游烯烃装置重启和节前备货对市场尚有支撑；中期看，港 口累库预计持续至10月，但伊朗开工下降和国内旺季需求有潜在利多；中性 2、基差：江苏甲醇现货价为229 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 碳酸锂期货早报 2025年9月23日 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点 | | | 供给端来看 ， | 上周碳酸锂产量为20363吨 环比增长2 00% 高于历史同期平均水平 ， . | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 。 需求端来看 ， | 环比增加0 上周磷酸铁锂样本企业库存为96217吨 81% 上周三元材 ， . , | | | | 料样本企业库存为17545吨 | 环比增加0 09% 。 ， . | | | | | 中性 | | | | 得为 -8521元/吨 | 有所亏损 回收端生产成本接近矿石端成本 排产积极性一 | | | | 空间充足 ， | 排产动力十足 。 | | 2 | ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 PVC期货早报 目 录 1 每日观点 2025年9月23日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 2 基本面/持仓数据 供给端来看，据隆众统计，2025年8月PVC产量为207.334万吨，环比增加3.43%；本周样本企业产能利 用率为76.96%，环比减少0.04个百分点；电石法企业产量32.8605万吨，环比减少3.14%,乙烯法企业产 量13.231万吨，环比减少5.16%；本周供给压力有所减少；下周预计检修有所减少，预计排产少量增加 为39.43%，环比增加.210个百分点，低于历史平均水平；下游管材开工率为39.13%，环比增加.52个百 分点，低于历史平均水平；下游薄膜开工率为76.92%，环比持平，高于历史平均水平；下游糊树脂开工 率为72.76%，环比减少3.39个百 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 聚烯烃早报 2025-9-23 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 • LLDPE概述： • 1. 基本面：宏观方面，8月份，官方PMI为49.4，比上月上升0.1个百分点，财新PMI50.4，较 前月上升0.6个百分点，制造业景气度有所改善。8 月以美元计价的中国出口额为3218.1 亿美元， 同比增长4.4%，较 7 月有所回落。美联储降息落地，原油近期价格震荡。9月19日晚，中美领导 人通话同意平等磋商妥善处理经贸等领域分歧。供需端，农膜逐渐进入旺季，包装膜以刚需为主， 下游开工提升，但整体需求仍较往年偏弱。当前LL交割品现货价7150（-30），基本面整体偏空； • 2. 基差： LLDPE 2601合约基差20，升贴水比例0.3%，中性； • 3. 库存：PE综合库存55 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report - The prices of oils and fats are expected to fluctuate and consolidate. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic supply of oils and fats is stable. The USDA's South American production forecast for the 24/25 season is high. The Malaysian palm oil inventory is neutral, and demand has improved. Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the US biodiesel policy for soybean oil supports increased biodiesel consumption. The imposition of tariffs on Canadian rapeseed in China has led to a rise in the rapeseed sector. The domestic fundamentals of oils and fats are neutral, and import inventories are stable. The easing of Sino-US and Sino-Canadian relations affects the market at the macro level [2][3][4]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily View - Soybean Oil - **Fundamentals**: The MPOB report shows that Malaysian palm oil production in May decreased by 9.8% month-on-month to 1.62 million tons, exports decreased by 14.74% to 1.49 million tons, and the end-of-month inventory decreased by 2.6% to 1.83 million tons. The report is neutral, with the production cut falling short of expectations. Currently, shipping survey agencies indicate that the export data of Malaysian palm oil this month has increased by 4% month-on-month, and palm oil supply will increase in the subsequent production season [2]. - **Basis**: The spot price of soybean oil is 8,450, with a basis of 84, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [2]. - **Inventory**: On August 22, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1.18 million tons, an increase of 20,000 tons from the previous period and a year-on-year increase of 11.7% [2]. - **Market**: The futures price is above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward [2]. - **Main Position**: The long positions of the main soybean oil contract have increased [2]. - **Expectation**: The soybean oil Y2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8,000 - 8,400 [2]. Daily View - Palm Oil - **Fundamentals**: Similar to soybean oil, the MPOB report shows neutral conditions for Malaysian palm oil, and supply is expected to increase in the subsequent production season [3]. - **Basis**: The spot price of palm oil is 9,372, with a basis of 12, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [3]. - **Inventory**: On August 22, the port inventory of palm oil was 580,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons from the previous period and a year-on-year decrease of 34.1% [3]. - **Market**: The futures price is above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward [3]. - **Main Position**: The main palm oil contract has shifted from long to short positions [3]. - **Expectation**: The palm oil P2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9,000 - 9,400 [3]. Daily View - Rapeseed Oil - **Fundamentals**: Similar to soybean oil and palm oil, the MPOB report shows neutral conditions for Malaysian palm oil, and supply is expected to increase in the subsequent production season [4]. - **Basis**: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 10,273, with a basis of 130, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [4]. - **Inventory**: On August 22, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 560,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons from the previous period and a year-on-year increase of 3.2% [4]. - **Market**: The futures price is above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward [4]. - **Main Position**: The short positions of the main rapeseed oil contract have increased [4]. - **Expectation**: The rapeseed oil OI2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9,800 - 10,200 [4]. Recent利多利空Analysis - **利多**: The US soybean stock-to-use ratio remains around 4%, indicating tight supply. There is a tremor season for palm oil [5]. - **利空**: The prices of oils and fats are at a relatively high historical level, and domestic inventories of oils and fats are continuously accumulating. The macroeconomy is weak, and the expected production of relevant oils and fats is high [5]. - **Main Logic**: The global fundamentals of oils and fats are relatively loose [5].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **沪镍**: The overall view is bearish. The outer market has declined, with the 20 - day moving average acting as resistance. Although nickel ore prices are firm and nickel - iron prices have risen slightly, nickel - iron enterprises are still in the red. Stainless steel inventories are falling, and new energy vehicle production and sales data are good, but the decline in ternary battery installations limits nickel demand. In the medium - to - long term, the oversupply pattern remains unchanged. The contract 沪镍2510 is expected to fluctuate around the 20 - day moving average [2]. - **不锈钢**: The view is neutral to bullish. Spot stainless steel prices are flat, with firm cost lines due to stable nickel ore prices, freight rates, and rising nickel - iron prices. Stainless steel inventories are continuing to decline, with good destocking during the "Golden September and Silver October" period. The contract 不锈钢2511 is expected to have a wide - range fluctuation around the 20 - day moving average [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs **多空因素** - **利多因素**: "Golden September and Silver October" demand boost expectations, anti - involution policies, and cost support at 120,000 [6]. - **利空因素**: A significant year - on - year increase in domestic production with no new demand growth points, and a year - on - year decline in ternary battery installations [6]. **镍、不锈钢价格基本概览** | Product | 9 - 22 Price | 9 - 19 Price | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪镍主力 | 121,400 | 121,500 | - 100 | | 伦镍电 | 15,200 | 15,270 | - 70 | | 不锈钢主力 | 12,910 | 12,860 | 50 | | SMM1电解镍 | 122,700 | 122,750 | - 50 | | 1金川镍 | 123,900 | 123,950 | - 50 | | 1进口镍 | 121,850 | 121,900 | - 50 | | 镍豆 | 124,000 | 124,050 | - 50 | | Cold - rolled coil 304*2B (Wuxi) | 13,950 | 13,950 | 0 | | Cold - rolled coil 304*2B (Foshan) | 14,150 | 14,150 | 0 | | Cold - rolled coil 304*2B (Hangzhou) | 13,950 | 13,950 | 0 | | Cold - rolled coil 304*2B (Shanghai) | 14,000 | 14,000 | 0 | [11] **镍仓单、库存** - As of September 19, the上期 - exchange nickel inventory was 29,834 tons, with futures inventory at 25,843 tons, an increase of 2,334 tons and 2,314 tons respectively. | Inventory Type | 9 - 22 | 9 - 19 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 伦镍 | 228,900 | 228,444 | 456 | | 沪镍 (Warehouse receipts) | 25,536 | 25,843 | - 307 | | Total inventory | 254,436 | 254,287 | 149 | [13][14] **不锈钢仓单、库存** - On September 19, the Wuxi inventory was 579,200 tons, the Foshan inventory was 288,000 tons, and the national inventory was 987,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 25,400 tons. Among them, the 300 - series inventory was 617,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5,800 tons. | Inventory Type | 9 - 22 | 9 - 19 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Stainless steel warehouse receipts | 89,377 | 89,732 | - 355 | [18][19] **镍矿、镍铁价格** | Product | Grade | 9 - 22 Price | 9 - 19 Price | Change | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Red - soil nickel ore CIF | Ni1.5% | 57 | 57 | 0 | USD/wet ton | | Red - soil nickel ore CIF | Ni0.9% | 29 | 29 | 0 | USD/wet ton | | Freight (Philippines - Lianyungang) | | 11.5 | 11.5 | 0 | USD/ton | | Freight (Philippines - Tianjin Port) | | 12.5 | 12.5 | 0 | USD/ton | | High - nickel (wet ton) | 8 - 12 | 954.5 | 954.5 | 0 | Yuan/nickel point | | Low - nickel (wet ton) | Below 2 | 3,470 | 3,470 | 0 | Yuan/ton | [21] **不锈钢生产成本** | Cost Type | Price | | --- | --- | | Traditional cost | 13,178 | | Scrap steel production cost | 13,566 | | Low - nickel + pure nickel cost | 16,866 | [23] **镍进口成本测算** The imported price is converted to 122,493 yuan/ton [26].