聚烯烃早报 2026-2-13 大越期货投资咨询部 朱天一 从业资格证号：F3020542 投资咨询证号： Z0021831 联系方式：0575-85226759 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 • LLDPE概述： • 1. 基本面：宏观方面，官方1月制造业PMI为49.3%，较上月回落0.8个百分点，落入收缩区间。 OPEC+2月1日部长级会议重申去年11月2日决定，因季节性需求疲软暂停2026年第一季度的增产计 划。当前原油回归震荡，前期因受伊朗等地缘政治扰动影响，走势波动大，聚烯烃跟随波动偏大。 供需端，临近春节，农膜方面，多数企业停工，整体订单少，包装膜企业同样多数停工。当前LL 交割品现货价6600（-0），基本面整体中性； • 2. 基差： LLDPE 2605合约基差-134，升贴水比例-2.0%，偏空； • 3. 库存：PE综合库存36.7万吨（-3.6），偏多； • 4. 盘面： LLD ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 碳酸锂期货早报 2026年2月12日 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点 | | | 供给端来看 ， | 上周碳酸锂产量为20744吨 环比减少3 82% ， . | 高于历史同期平均水平 。 , | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 需求端来看 ， | 上周磷酸铁锂样本企业库存为95032吨 ， | 环比减少1 84% 上周三元材料 . , | | | | | | 样本企业库存为18243吨 | 环比减少2 39% ， . 。 | | | | | | | 成本端来看 ， | 外购锂辉石精矿成本为139374元/吨 ， | 日环比持平 生产所得为 ， | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report Industrial Silicon - The supply of industrial silicon last week was 71,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 13.41%. Demand was 60,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 20%. Demand remained sluggish. The cost support increased during the dry season. The 2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8,275 - 8,465 [6]. - The overall fundamental situation is bearish, but there are positive factors such as rising cost support and manufacturers' plans to stop or reduce production. Negative factors include the slow recovery of demand after the holiday and the strong supply and weak demand of downstream polysilicon [13][14]. Polysilicon - The polysilicon production last week was 20,100 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.49%. The scheduled production in February is expected to be 79,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 20.93%. The overall demand shows a continuous decline. The cost support remains stable. The 2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 48,075 - 50,285 [8][11]. - The fundamental situation is bearish, but there are positive factors such as the net long position of the main contract (with a decrease in long positions) and the spot price premium over the futures price [10][11]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views Industrial Silicon - **Supply**: Last week's supply was 71,000 tons, down 13.41% week - on - week [6]. - **Demand**: Last week's demand was 60,000 tons, down 20% week - on - week. The inventory and profit status of downstream products vary: polysilicon inventory is at a neutral level; organic silicon inventory is at a low level with a production profit of 2,570 yuan/ton and a comprehensive operating rate of 64.02%, flat week - on - week and lower than the historical average; aluminum alloy ingot inventory is at a high level [6]. - **Cost**: The production cost of sample oxygen - passing 553 in Xinjiang is 9,769.7 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week. Cost support has increased during the dry season [6]. - **Basis**: On February 11, the spot price of non - oxygen - passing silicon in East China was 9,200 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract was 830 yuan/ton, with the spot price at a premium to the futures price [6]. - **Inventory**: Social inventory was 562,000 tons, up 1.44% week - on - week; sample enterprise inventory was 206,000 tons, down 1.43% week - on - week; major port inventory was 136,000 tons, down 1.44% week - on - week [6]. - **Market**: The MA20 is downward, and the price of the 05 contract closed below the MA20 [6]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, with an increase in short positions [6]. - **Expectation**: Supply scheduling has decreased and remains at a low level. Demand recovery is emerging. Cost support is rising. The 2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8,275 - 8,465 [6]. Polysilicon - **Supply**: Last week's production was 20,100 tons, down 0.49% week - on - week. The scheduled production in February is 79,700 tons, down 20.93% month - on - month [8]. - **Demand**: Last week's silicon wafer production was 10.38GW, down 11.65% week - on - week, with an inventory of 283,200 tons, up 3.77% week - on - week, and the production is currently in a loss state. The production of battery cells and components also shows a downward trend, but battery cells and components are currently in a profitable state [9]. - **Cost**: The average production cost of N - type polysilicon is 40,830 yuan/ton, with a production profit of 11,920 yuan/ton [9]. - **Basis**: On February 11, the price of N - type dense material was 52,750 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract was 4,470 yuan/ton, with the spot price at a premium to the futures price [11]. - **Inventory**: Weekly inventory was 341,000 tons, up 2.40% week - on - week, at a neutral level compared to the historical average [11]. - **Market**: The MA20 is upward, and the price of the 05 contract closed below the MA20 [11]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net long, with a decrease in long positions [10]. - **Expectation**: Supply scheduling continues to decrease, and overall demand shows a continuous decline. Cost support remains stable. The 2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 48,075 - 50,285 [11]. 3.2 Market Overview Industrial Silicon - The report provides the price, change, and inventory data of various industrial silicon contracts and spot products, including different grades of silicon in East China, contract prices from 01 to 12, and various inventory data such as social inventory, sample enterprise inventory, and major port inventory [17]. Polysilicon - It presents the price, change, and inventory data of polysilicon contracts, as well as the price, production, and inventory data of downstream products such as silicon wafers, battery cells, and components [19]. 3.3 Other Aspects - The report also includes multiple charts and data on the price, production, inventory, and cost of industrial silicon and its downstream products (organic silicon, aluminum alloy, polysilicon, etc.). These charts show the historical trends and current situations of various indicators, providing a comprehensive reference for analyzing the market situation of industrial silicon and related industries [21][24][27] etc.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report presents a comprehensive analysis of commodity options on February 12, 2026, including option quotes, positions, and various ratios, as well as daily selections and expiring options [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Option Quotes - **Call Options**: Nickel had the highest daily increase of 305.19%, followed by tin (69.44%) and lithium carbonate (59.40%) [1]. - **Put Options**: Industrial silicon had the highest daily increase of 8.57%, while palm oil increased by 7.30%. Glass, sugar, and other varieties showed declines [1]. Option Positions - **Call Options**: Nickel had the largest daily increase in positions of 6,533, followed by lithium carbonate (6,101) and industrial silicon (4,102) [2]. - **Put Options**: Corn had the largest daily increase in positions of 12,065, followed by nickel (5,454) and lithium carbonate (4,780) [2]. Option Position Put - Call Ratio (PCR) - **High - PCR Varieties**: Apple had a PCR of 1.7211, followed by offset printing paper (1.3903) and staple fiber (1.0879) [5]. - **Low - PCR Varieties**: Soda ash had a PCR of 0.2633, followed by live pigs (0.2689) and alumina (0.2841) [5]. Option Volume Put - Call Ratio (PCR) - **High - PCR Varieties**: Apple had a PCR of 1.7735, followed by palladium (1.4677) and silver (1.1918) [6]. - **Low - PCR Varieties**: Ethylene glycol had a PCR of 0.1698, followed by natural rubber (0.1856) and propylene (0.2034) [6]. Daily Selections - **Call Options**: Soybean No.1, peanut, corn, and other varieties were selected, each with corresponding futures contracts, option contracts, trend degrees, put - call ratios, and remaining days [7]. - **Put Options**: Industrial silicon, palm oil, rebar, and other varieties were selected, with relevant futures contracts, option contracts, trend degrees, put - call ratios, and remaining days [7]. Expiring Options - **Call Options**: For expiring call options of various varieties such as SSE 50, CSI 300, and silver, information on remaining days, option closing prices, underlying settlement prices, break - even points, and option doubling points was provided [8]. - **Put Options**: Similar information for expiring put options of various varieties was presented, including SSE 50, CSI 300, and silver [9].

大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2026-02-12甲醇早报 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 多空关注 3 基本面数据 4 检修状况 甲醇2605： 1、基本面：假期临近，预计本周国内甲醇区间震荡为主。内地甲醇市场逐步进入节前休整周期。需求端，甲醛等传统 下游装置已相继停车放假，部分下游也完成节前备货，终端需求逐步缩量。供应端，国内甲醇工厂持续加大出货力度， 企业库存水平低位运行，部分企业已采取限量销售策略，整体供应端保持充足且无明显压力。随着春节长假日益临近， 市场交投活跃度明显下降，预计短期内内地甲醇市场将维持清淡整理格局。港口方面，甲醇期货跟随有色金属板块经历 一轮大涨大跌后再度陷入区间震荡，当前资金情绪消散，美伊地缘风险不定，基本面颓势不改，预计节前港口市场底 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of PVC are bearish, with supply pressure increasing this week and expected to rise slightly next week, while demand may remain sluggish. The overall cost is strengthening, and the inventory is at a neutral level. The PVC2605 contract is expected to fluctuate between 4940 - 5040. There are both bullish and bearish factors in the market, and the main logic is the strong overall supply pressure and the slow recovery of domestic demand [8][9][10]. - Bullish factors include the resumption of supply, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export benefits. Bearish factors include the rebound of overall supply pressure, high - level inventory with slow consumption, and weak domestic and foreign demand [12]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply Side**: In January 2026, PVC production was 2.14863 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.53%. This week, the capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises was 79.26%, with no change from the previous week. The production of calcium carbide enterprises was 348,330 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.34%, and that of ethylene enterprises was 136,960 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.62%. Supply pressure increased this week, and next week, maintenance is expected to decrease, with production scheduled to increase slightly [8]. - **Demand Side**: The overall downstream operating rate was 41.42%, a decrease of 3.33 percentage points from the previous week, but still higher than the historical average. The operating rates of downstream profiles, pipes, films, and paste resin all decreased compared to the previous week but were higher than the historical average. Shipping costs are expected to decline, and domestic PVC export prices are not competitive. Current demand may remain sluggish [8]. - **Cost Side**: The profit of calcium carbide method was - 658.58 yuan/ton, and the loss decreased by 11.00% month - on - month, lower than the historical average; the profit of ethylene method was 102.91 yuan/ton, a profit increase of 91.60% month - on - month, lower than the historical average; the double - ton spread was 1,818.35 yuan/ton, a profit increase of 0.80% month - on - month, lower than the historical average. Production scheduling may be under pressure [9]. - **Other Aspects**: On February 11, the price of East China SG - 5 was 4,830 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract was - 160 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures. Factory inventory was 287,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.85%, calcium carbide factory inventory was 210,390 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.37%, ethylene factory inventory was 77,310 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.15%, and social inventory was 592,860 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.40%. The MA20 is upward, and the price of the 05 contract closed above the MA20. The main positions are net short, with an increase in short positions [10]. 3.2 PVC Market Overview - The report provides yesterday's market overview, including enterprise indicators, monthly spreads, inventory, downstream operating rates, profits, costs, and other data, as well as their changes from the previous period [15]. 3.3 PVC Futures Market - **Base Price Trend**: The report presents the base price trend chart of PVC futures from 2022 to 2026, including the base price, PVC East China market price, and the closing price of the main contract [18]. - **Futures Price and Volume Trends**: It shows the price, volume, and open interest trends of PVC futures in January - February 2026, including the opening price, highest price, lowest price, closing price, and changes in the net positions of the top 5 and top 20 seats [21]. - **Spread Analysis**: The report provides the spread analysis chart of the main contracts of PVC futures from 2024 to 2025, including the 1 - 9 spread and 5 - 9 spread [24]. 3.4 PVC Fundamentals - **Calcium Carbide Method - Related**: It includes the price, cost - profit, operating rate, inventory, and production of raw materials such as semi - coke, calcium carbide, liquid chlorine, raw salt, caustic soda, and the cost - profit of the chlor - alkali industry, as well as the double - ton spread and caustic soda consumption and inventory [27][30][32][35][38]. - **PVC Supply Trend**: It shows the capacity utilization rates of calcium carbide and ethylene methods, production profits, daily and weekly production, and weekly maintenance volume of PVC from 2018 - 2026 [41][43]. - **Demand Trend**: It includes the daily sales volume of PVC traders, weekly pre - sales volume, production - sales ratio, apparent consumption, downstream average operating rate, and operating rates of profiles, pipes, films, paste resin, as well as the profit, cost, production, and apparent consumption of paste resin. It also shows real estate investment, construction area, new construction area, sales area, completion area, and macro - economic data such as social financing scale increment, M2 increment, local government new special bonds, and infrastructure investment year - on - year [46][48][50][54][56]. - **Inventory**: It presents the exchange warehouse receipts, calcium carbide factory inventory, ethylene factory inventory, social inventory, and production enterprise inventory days of PVC from 2019 - 2026 [58]. - **Ethylene Method**: It includes the import volume of vinyl chloride and dichloroethane, PVC export volume, and the FOB spread of ethylene method (Tianjin - Taiwan) and the import spread of vinyl chloride (Jiangsu - Far East CIF) from 2018 - 2026 [60]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It shows the monthly supply - demand situation of PVC from December 2024 to January 2026, including export, demand, social inventory, factory inventory, production, import, and supply - demand difference [63].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The rapeseed meal RM2605 is expected to oscillate in the range of 2260 - 2320. The market is affected by factors such as the soybean meal trend, technical consolidation, and the improvement of China - Canada trade relations. In the short - term, it is affected by the improvement of China - Canada trade relations and is oscillating weakly, while in the medium - term, it will maintain an oscillating pattern [9]. - The spot demand for rapeseed meal has entered the off - season, but the low inventory supports the market. The post - Spring Festival demand is expected to be good [9]. - The market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expected arrival of Canadian rapeseed imports [12]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Hints No relevant content provided. 2. Recent News - The domestic aquaculture industry has entered the long - holiday off - season. The supply in the spot market is expected to be tight in the short - term, and the decreasing demand suppresses the market expectation. The export of Canadian rapeseed is affected by China - Canada trade issues, resulting in a short - term reduction in domestic supply [11]. - With the visit of the Canadian Prime Minister to China, the China - Canada trade relations have improved in the short - term. The tariffs imposed by both sides are expected to be gradually cancelled, and China's imports of Canadian rapeseed are about to resume [11]. - The global rapeseed output has increased this year, especially the Canadian rapeseed output is higher than expected [11]. - The Russia - Ukraine conflict is still ongoing. The decrease in Ukraine's rapeseed output and the increase in Russia's rapeseed output offset each other. The global geopolitical conflict may rise in the future, which still supports bulk commodities [11]. 3. Long and Short Concerns - **Likely to Rise** - China's post - Spring Festival demand for rapeseed meal is expected to be good [12]. - The rapeseed meal inventory of oil mills is under no pressure [12]. - **Likely to Fall** - The domestic demand for rapeseed meal has entered the short - term off - season [12]. - China - Canada trade relations have improved, and China's imports of Canadian rapeseed are about to resume [12]. - **Current Main Logic** - The market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expected arrival of Canadian rapeseed imports [12]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Market Data** - From February 3rd to February 11th, the average transaction price of soybean meal fluctuated between 3117 - 3136, and the trading volume varied from 5.03 - 26.17 million tons. The average transaction price of rapeseed meal was around 2430 - 2450, and the trading volume was mostly 0, with only on February 6th reaching 3 million tons. The price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuated between 667 - 696 [13]. - From February 4th to February 11th, the price of rapeseed meal futures (main contract 2605) fluctuated between 2238 - 2288, and the far - month contract 2609 fluctuated between 2284 - 2330. The spot price of rapeseed meal (in Fujian) was mainly 2430 - 2450 [15]. - From February 3rd to February 11th, the rapeseed meal warehouse receipts were all 0 [17]. - **Supply and Demand Balance Sheets** - In the domestic rapeseed supply - demand balance sheet from 2016 - 2025, the harvest area, output, and inventory consumption ratio have all shown certain fluctuations. For example, the inventory consumption ratio in 2025 reached 10.56% [19]. - In the domestic rapeseed meal supply - demand balance sheet from 2016 - 2025, the output, total demand, and inventory consumption ratio also fluctuated. The inventory consumption ratio in 2025 was 9.85% [21]. - **Other Information** - Rapeseed meal futures are in a low - level oscillation, while the spot price is relatively stable, and the spot premium remains at a relatively high level [22]. - The price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal in the spot market has narrowed, and the price difference of the 2605 contract has fluctuated slightly [24]. - Imported rapeseed will start to arrive in February, and the import cost has rebounded from a low level [27]. - The rapeseed inventory of oil mills remains at a low level, and the rapeseed meal inventory is also at a low level [28]. - The rapeseed processing volume of oil mills has increased slightly while maintaining operation [30]. - The price of aquatic fish has fluctuated slightly, and the price of shrimps and shellfish has remained stable [38]. 5. Position Data No relevant content provided. 6. Rapeseed Meal Views and Strategies - **Fundamentals** - Rapeseed meal has oscillated and rebounded, affected by the soybean meal trend and technical consolidation. After the short - term negative impact of China's cancellation of restrictions on Canadian agricultural product exports, the market has returned to oscillation. The spot demand for rapeseed meal has entered the off - season, but the low inventory supports the market. The post - Spring Festival demand is expected to be good. In the short - term, it is affected by the improvement of China - Canada trade relations and is oscillating weakly, while in the medium - term, it will maintain an oscillating pattern [9]. - **Basis** - The spot price is 2440, and the basis is 152, indicating a premium over the futures, which is a bullish signal [9]. - **Inventory** - The total domestic rapeseed meal inventory is 43.78 tons, compared with 44.95 tons last week, a week - on - week decrease of 2.6%. Compared with 50.2 million tons in the same period last year, it has decreased by 12.79%, which is a bullish signal [9]. - **Market** - The price is above the 20 - day moving average but is moving downward, showing a neutral signal [9]. - **Main Position** - The short positions of the main players have decreased, and the funds have flowed out, showing a bearish signal [9]. - **Expectation** - Rapeseed meal has bottomed out and rebounded due to the visit of the Canadian Prime Minister to China and the improvement of China - Canada trade relations. Considering that the domestic rapeseed meal has entered the supply - demand off - season recently, it will maintain an oscillating pattern after the overall negative factors are digested. Attention should be paid to the future development of China - Canada trade relations [9].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Geopolitical concerns continue to support oil prices as Israel and the US discuss the Iranian issue and military actions intensify, but OPEC's prediction of a 400,000 barrels per day decrease in global demand for OPEC+ crude in Q2 and a slight supply surplus in the same quarter suppress the upside space of oil prices. Short - term crude oil is expected to continue to fluctuate at high levels, waiting for more news from the US - Iran negotiations. SC2604 is expected to operate in the range of 477 - 487, and there are long - term opportunities to try short positions on rallies [3]. - Short - term focus on geopolitics, and there is a risk of oversupply in the medium - to - long - term [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - **Fundamentals**: Trump privately considers withdrawing from the US - Mexico - Canada trade agreement, adding uncertainty; OPEC predicts a 400,000 barrels per day decrease in global demand for OPEC+ in Q2 with a slight surplus; Trump says reaching an agreement with Iran is the "preferred" option, and the US Pentagon prepares to deploy a carrier strike group to the Middle East [3]. - **Basis**: On February 11, the spot price of Oman crude was $69.10 per barrel, and that of Qatar Marine crude was $68.30 per barrel, with a basis of 32.13 yuan/barrel, and the spot price was at a premium to the futures price [3]. - **Inventory**: US API crude inventory increased by 13.4 million barrels in the week ending February 6; EIA inventory increased by 8.53 million barrels in the week to February 6, exceeding the expected increase of 793,000 barrels; Cushing area inventory increased by 1.071 million barrels in the week to February 6; Shanghai crude oil futures inventory remained unchanged at 3.464 million barrels as of February 11 [3]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the price is above the average [3]. - **Main Position**: As of February 3, the main positions of WTI and Brent crude oil were long, and the long positions increased [3]. - **Expectation**: Short - term crude oil is expected to continue to fluctuate at high levels, waiting for more news from the US - Iran negotiations. SC2604 is expected to operate in the range of 477 - 487, and there are long - term opportunities to try short positions on rallies [3]. 2. Recent News - **OPEC Report**: The global demand for OPEC+ crude in Q2 is expected to average 42.2 million barrels per day, lower than 42.6 million barrels per day in Q1. OPEC maintains the forecast of global oil demand growth of 1.34 million barrels per day in 2027 and 1.38 million barrels per day in 2026. In January, OPEC+ daily output was 42.45 million barrels, a decrease of 439,000 barrels from December, mainly due to production cuts in Kazakhstan, Russia, Venezuela, and Iran [5]. - **US Policy**: The US government issued a general license allowing oilfield service companies to work in Venezuela, a step in relaxing sanctions and promoting the reconstruction of the country's crude oil infrastructure [5]. 3. Long - Short Concerns - **Bullish Factors**: Not provided in the given content - **Bearish Factors**: IEA's concern about crude oil surplus and the alleviation of supply problems in some oil - producing countries [6] - **Market Drivers**: Short - term focus on geopolitics, and medium - to - long - term risk of oversupply [6] 4. Fundamental Data - **Futures Quotes**: Brent crude settled at $68.80, down $0.24 or 0.35%; WTI crude settled at $63.96, down $0.40 or 0.62%; SC crude settled at 472.5, up 6.5 or 1.39%; Oman crude settled at $66.77, down $1.01 or 1.49% [7]. - **Spot Quotes**: UK Brent Dtd was at $72.41, up $0.12 or 0.17%; WTI was at $63.96, down $0.40 or 0.62%; Oman crude (Pacific Rim) was at $68.28, up $1.07 or 1.59%; Shengli crude (Pacific Rim) was at $65.08, up $1.51 or 2.38%; Dubai crude (Pacific Rim) was at $68.43, up $1.30 or 1.94% [9]. - **API Inventory**: As of February 6, API inventory was 45.1431 million barrels, an increase of 13.4 million barrels [10]. - **EIA Inventory**: As of February 6, EIA inventory was 42.8829 million barrels, an increase of 8.53 million barrels [13]. 5. Position Data - **WTI Crude Fund Net Long Position**: As of February 3, the net long position was 124,565, an increase of 27,583 [16]. - **Brent Crude Fund Net Long Position**: As of February 3, the net long position was 278,249, an increase of 31,332 [18].

Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The Asian low - sulfur fuel oil market structure remains stable, with ample supply offsetting strong downstream marine fuel demand before the Lunar New Year. The Asian high - sulfur fuel oil market has cooled after a recent rise due to moderate demand and sufficient supply [3]. - The spot price of fuel oil is at a premium to the futures price. The price is above the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is upward - sloping. However, the high - sulfur and low - sulfur main positions are short, with high - sulfur short positions increasing and low - sulfur short positions decreasing [3]. - Singapore's fuel oil inventory increased by 950,000 barrels to 25.529 million barrels in the week ending February 4 [3]. - Trump reached an "oil - for - tariff" agreement with India, revoking the 25% secondary tariff on Indian purchases of Russian oil and reducing the reciprocal tariff from 25% to 18%. India will stop buying Russian oil and turn to the US. The US - Iran negotiation is still uncertain. In the short term, heavy - oil products are supported, and fuel oil will trade at a high level. FU2604 will operate in the range of 2900 - 2980, and LU2604 will operate in the range of 3360 - 3420 [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - The fundamental situation of fuel oil is neutral, the basis is bullish, the inventory is bearish, the price trend on the disk is bullish, and the main positions are bearish. In the short term, fuel oil will trade at a high level, with FU2604 in the 2900 - 2980 range and LU2604 in the 3360 - 3420 range [3]. 2. Multi - Short Concerns - Bullish factors include the spot premium of fuel oil and the price above the 20 - day line. Bearish factors include the increase in Singapore's fuel oil inventory and the short positions in the main contracts [3]. 3. Fundamental Data - The Asian low - sulfur fuel oil market structure is stable, and the high - sulfur market has cooled. The basis shows that the spot is at a premium to the futures. Singapore's fuel oil inventory increased in the week ending February 4 [3]. 4. Spread Data - The report does not provide specific spread data analysis, only shows a graph of the high - low sulfur futures spread [10]. 5. Inventory Data - Singapore's fuel oil inventory increased by 950,000 barrels to 25.529 million barrels in the week ending February 4. Historical inventory data from November 26, 2025, to February 4, 2026, are also provided [3][8].

1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沥青期货早报 2026年2月12日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 每日观点 供给端来看，根据隆众，2026年2月份国内地炼沥青排产量为102.3万吨，环比降幅 3.30%。本周国内石油沥青样本产能利用率为26.1266%，环比减少1.20个百分点，全 国样本企业出货21.16万吨，环比减少1.32%,样本企业产量为43.6万吨，环比减少 4.38%,样本企业装置检修量预估为103万吨，环比增加0.78%,本周炼厂有所减产，降 低供应压力。下周或将减少供给压力。 需求端来看，重交沥青开工率为24.5%，环比减少0.04个百分点，低于历史平均水平； 建筑沥青开工率为3.3%，环比持平，低于历史平均水平；改性沥青开工率为 4.6163%， ...