交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-09-22燃料油早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 多空关注 3 基本面数据 4 5 价差数据 库存数据 燃料油： 1、基本面：亚洲低硫燃料油市场结构维持在近期水平，主要因即期供应充足且下游需求疲软。由于实物货品报 价竞争激烈，含硫0.5%船用燃油现货价差四个交易日来首次转为贴水；新加坡380CST高硫燃料油10-11月互换合 约价差报+3.80美元/吨，与18日持平。由于中国石油收盘估价过程中提出更坚挺的买盘， 380CST高硫燃料油现 货价差在一周多来首次转为溢价；中性 2、基差：新加坡高硫燃料油397.48美元/吨，基差为115元/吨，新加坡低硫燃料油为475.5美元/吨，基差为73元 /吨，现货升水期货；偏多 3、 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪铝周报（9.15~9.19） 大越期货投资咨询部:祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号：Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目录 一、行情回顾 二、基本面（库存结构） 三、市场结构 上周回顾 沪铝周评： 沪铝上周震荡下行，上周主力合约下跌1.52%，周五收盘报20795元/吨。在碳中和下长期控制产能，国 内房地产压制需求不振，取消对铝材出口退税，对于国内铝价构成利空，美国加增钢铝关税，消费有 所影响。国内基本面上，需求进入旺季，等待消费复苏。上周LME库存513900吨，较前周出现小幅增加， SHFE周库存减765吨至127734吨。。 基本面 1、供需平衡表 2、铝 3、铝土矿 4、氧化铝 5、铝棒 供需平衡 期货主力 数据来源：博易大师 数据来源：Wind 供需平衡 | | | | 中国年度供需平衡表 铝(万吨) | | | | --- ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 纯碱早报 2025-9-22 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 纯碱： 1、基本面：碱厂检修较少，供给仍处高位；下游浮法玻璃日熔量平稳，光伏日熔量延续下滑趋 势，终端需求一般，纯碱厂库处于历史同期高位；偏空 2、基差：河北沙河重质纯碱现货价1225元/吨，SA2601收盘价为1318元/吨，基差为-93元，期货 升水现货；偏空 3、库存：全国纯碱厂内库存175.56万吨，较前一周减少2.33%，库存在5年均值上方运行；偏空 4、盘面：价格在20日线上方运行，20日线向下；中性 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空减；偏空 6、预期：纯碱基本面疲弱，短期预计震荡运行为主。 影响因素总结 利多： 1、年内检修高峰期来临，产量预计将有所下滑。 利空： 1、23年以来，纯碱产能大幅扩 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, nickel prices showed weak performance, with downstream buyers making purchases based on rigid demand and trading volume being average. In the industrial chain, nickel ore prices remained firm, and freight rates also showed a stable - to - rising trend due to the increase in coal prices. Ferronickel prices continued to rise slightly, with the cost line moving up further, but overall, ferronickel enterprises were still in the red. Stainless steel inventories continued to decline, and inventory reduction during the "Golden September and Silver October" period was satisfactory. New energy vehicle production and sales data were good, but the loading of ternary batteries continued to decline, having limited impact on increasing nickel demand. The long - term oversupply situation remains unchanged [8]. - The main contract of Shanghai nickel will fluctuate around the 20 - day moving average, while the main contract of stainless steel will have a wide - range fluctuation around the 20 - day moving average [9][10]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Viewpoints and Strategies - **Shanghai Nickel Viewpoint**: This week, nickel prices were weak, downstream demand was based on rigid needs, and trading was average. In the industrial chain, nickel ore prices were firm, freight rates were stable and rising, ferronickel prices rose slightly but enterprises were still losing money, stainless steel inventories decreased, new energy vehicle data was good but ternary battery loading declined, and the long - term oversupply remained [8]. - **Operation Strategy**: The main contract of Shanghai nickel will fluctuate around the 20 - day moving average, and the main contract of stainless steel will have a wide - range fluctuation around the 20 - day moving average [9][10]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1 Industry Chain Weekly Price Changes - Nickel ore prices remained unchanged this week compared to last week. Battery - grade nickel sulfate prices increased by 0.72%, while electroplating - grade nickel sulfate prices remained flat. Low - grade ferronickel prices remained unchanged, and high - grade ferronickel prices increased by 0.52%. Shanghai electrolytic nickel, Shanghai Russian nickel, and Jinchuan's ex - factory prices all decreased slightly. 304 stainless steel prices increased by 0.72% [13][14]. 3.2.2 Nickel Ore Market Conditions - Nickel ore prices and freight rates remained unchanged from last week. As of September 18, 2025, the total nickel ore inventory at 14 ports in China was 14.0011 million wet tons, an increase of 1.01% from the previous period. In July 2025, nickel ore imports were 5.0058 million tons, a significant increase compared to the previous month and the same period last year. This week, the nickel ore market was mainly in a wait - and - see mode, with prices stable and freight rates firm due to rising coal prices. Indonesian supply remained abundant [17]. 3.2.3 Electrolytic Nickel Market Conditions - This week, nickel prices fluctuated weakly, and downstream buyers made purchases as needed, with overall trading being average. Spot premiums and discounts were slightly adjusted. In the long - term, supply and demand will both increase, but the oversupply situation will not change. Domestic new energy may be a new demand driver, and prices may be under pressure in the long - term but will not deviate far from the cost line, with the center of gravity likely to shift downwards. LME and Shanghai nickel inventories both increased [22][25][38]. 3.2.4 Ferronickel Market Conditions - Ferronickel prices showed a stable - to - rising trend. In August 2025, China's ferronickel production decreased slightly compared to the previous month and the same period last year. In July 2025, ferronickel imports decreased compared to the previous month but increased compared to the same period last year. In August, ferronickel inventories were 218,900 physical tons, equivalent to 21,700 nickel tons [42][45][51]. 3.2.5 Stainless Steel Market Conditions - 304 stainless steel prices increased this week. In August 2025, stainless steel crude steel production was 3.3156 million tons, with the output of the 300 - series increasing by 2.34% compared to the previous month. The latest data showed that stainless steel imports were 73,000 tons and exports were 416,300 tons. As of September 19, stainless steel social inventories decreased compared to the previous period [56][60][66]. 3.2.6 New Energy Vehicle Production and Sales - In August 2025, new energy vehicle production and sales reached 1.391 million and 1.395 million respectively, with significant year - on - year growth. From January to August, production and sales reached 9.625 million and 9.62 million respectively, also showing substantial year - on - year growth. In August, the total output of power and other batteries was 139.6 GWh, with a month - on - month increase of 4.4% and a year - on - year increase of 37.3%. However, the loading of ternary batteries decreased year - on - year [71][74]. 3.3 Technical Analysis - From the daily K - line chart, prices fluctuated around the 20 - day moving average. Open interest decreased as prices declined, indicating some reduction in long positions. The MACD red bar fluctuated slightly above the zero axis, showing a lack of clear direction. The KDJ was at the mid - level, also lacking direction. Prices mainly oscillated within a narrow range [77]. 3.4 Industrial Chain Summary - The impact of different sectors on nickel prices varies: nickel ore has a neutral impact; ferronickel has a neutral impact; refined nickel has a slightly bearish impact; stainless steel has a slightly bullish impact; and the new energy sector has a neutral impact [80]. - Trading strategies suggest that the main contract of Shanghai nickel will oscillate around the 20 - day moving average, and the main contract of stainless steel will have a wide - range oscillation around the 20 - day moving average [82].

白糖周报（9.15-9.19） 大越期货投资咨询部 王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询证号： Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 本周回顾： 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 国际原糖再度跌至16美分下方，国内郑糖震荡下跌，创出近两年新低。国内消费旺季即将过去， 进口糖大幅增加，郑糖期货主力01总体震荡偏弱。 利多：国内消费较好，库存降低，糖浆关税增加。美国 可乐改变配方使用蔗糖。 利空：白糖全球产量增加，新一年度全球供应过剩。外 糖价格在16美分/磅附近震荡，进口利润窗口打开，进 口冲击加大。 • 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建 议。我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 ...

橡胶：回落做多 橡胶期货 研究结论 策略周报（9.15—9.19） | 分析师： | 金泽彬 | | --- | --- | | 研究品种: | 天然橡胶 | | 从业资格证号: | F3048432 | 请详细阅读后文免责声明 【 】 衍 生 品 本周市场下跌，技术形态上呈现空头走势 基本面偏多格局不变 回落做多 本周市场下跌，价格连续击穿支撑位，技术形态上呈现空头走势。 二、现货行情回顾 上海云南 23 年国营全乳胶含 9%税报价 14700 元/吨，相比上周下跌 250 元/吨。 青岛保税区烟片胶报价 2170 美元/吨，相比上周下跌 10 美元/吨。 上海地区 BR9000 报价 11775 元/吨，相比上周下跌 250 元/吨。 三、库存情况回顾 本周上期所库存增加，小计库存增加 4876 吨至 196824 吨，期货库存增加 3180 吨至 154920 吨。 四、市场结构 策略周报 一、期货行情回顾 | 合约 | 开盘价 | 最高价 | 最低价 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | RU2601 | 15860 | 16105 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Last week, Shanghai copper prices rose first and then fell. The main contract of Shanghai copper decreased by 1.42%, closing at 79,910 yuan/ton. Geopolitical factors and US tariff issues affected copper prices, and global instability persists. Domestically, the consumption season is approaching, but downstream consumption willingness is average. In the industrial sector, domestic spot trading is mediocre, mainly driven by rigid demand. In terms of inventory, LME copper inventory was 148,875 tons, with a slight decrease last week, while SHFE copper inventory increased by 11,760 tons to 105,814 tons compared to the previous week [3]. - The copper market will be in a tight balance in 2024 and face an oversupply in 2025 [10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - Last week, the main contract of Shanghai copper decreased by 1.42%, closing at 79,910 yuan/ton. Geopolitical factors and US tariff issues affected copper prices, and global instability persists. Domestically, the consumption season is approaching, but downstream consumption willingness is average. In the industrial sector, domestic spot trading is mediocre, mainly driven by rigid demand. LME copper inventory was 148,875 tons, with a slight decrease last week, while SHFE copper inventory increased by 11,760 tons to 105,814 tons compared to the previous week [3]. 3.2 Fundamentals 3.2.1 PMI - No specific content about PMI is provided in the report. 3.2.2 Supply - Demand Balance - The copper market will be in a tight balance in 2024 and face an oversupply in 2025. The Chinese annual supply - demand balance table shows production, import, export, apparent consumption, actual consumption, and supply - demand balance data from 2018 to 2024 [10][13]. 3.2.3 Inventory - Exchange inventory is in the process of destocking, and bonded area inventory remains at a low level [14][18]. 3.3 Market Structure 3.3.1 Processing Fees - Processing fees are at a low level [21]. 3.3.2 CFTC Positions - There is an outflow of non - commercial net long positions in CFTC [23]. 3.3.3 Futures - Spot Price Spread - No specific content about the futures - spot price spread is provided in the report. 3.3.4 Import Profits - No specific content about import profits is provided in the report. 3.3.5 Warehouse Receipts - No specific content about warehouse receipts is provided in the report.

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The soybean meal market is expected to return to a volatile pattern in the short - term. The M2601 contract is expected to fluctuate between 2980 and 3040. The market is influenced by factors such as US soybean weather, Sino - US trade tariff games, domestic soybean imports, and oil mill inventories [8]. - The domestic soybean market is also in a narrow - range volatile state. The A2511 contract is expected to fluctuate between 3840 and 3940. It is affected by US soybean weather, Sino - US trade relations, Brazilian soybean production, and domestic soybean supply and demand [10]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Tips - Soybean meal: The market is neutral. The basis is at a discount, the inventory has increased, the price is below the 20 - day moving average, the main long positions have increased but funds have flowed out. It is expected to be in a volatile pattern between 2980 - 3040 [8]. - Soybeans: The market is neutral. The basis is at a premium, the inventory has increased, the price is below the 20 - day moving average, the main long positions have decreased and funds have flowed out. It is expected to fluctuate between 3840 - 3940 [10]. 2. Recent News - Sino - US tariff negotiations are deadlocked, which is short - term negative for US soybeans. The US soybean market will remain volatile above the 1000 - point mark, waiting for further guidance on US soybean growth, harvest, imports, and Sino - US tariff negotiations [12]. - The arrival of imported soybeans in September remains high, and the soybean meal inventory of oil mills is at a relatively high level. The soybean meal market will return to a range - bound pattern [12]. - The decrease in domestic pig - raising profits leads to a low expectation of pig replenishment. The recovery of soybean meal demand from August to September supports the price, and the uncertainty of Sino - US trade negotiations also makes the soybean meal market return to a range - bound pattern [12]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors Soybean Meal - Bullish factors: Slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, low soybean meal inventory in domestic oil mills, and variable weather in the US soybean - producing areas [13]. - Bearish factors: High arrival of domestic imported soybeans in September, and the continuous expectation of a bumper harvest of South American soybeans after the end of the Brazilian soybean harvest [13]. Soybeans - Bullish factors: Cost support from imported soybeans and the expected recovery of domestic soybean demand [14]. - Bearish factors: Bumper harvest of Brazilian soybeans and increased procurement by China, and the expected increase in domestic soybean production [14]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Global Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: From 2015 - 2024, the harvest area, production, and total supply of soybeans generally showed an upward trend, while the inventory - to - consumption ratio also fluctuated [31]. - **Domestic Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: From 2015 - 2024, the harvest area, production, and import volume of domestic soybeans changed, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio also showed certain fluctuations [32]. 5. Position Data No relevant content provided. Other Information - The export inspection of US soybeans on a weekly basis has rebounded and increased year - on - year [42]. - The arrival of imported soybeans in September has decreased from the high level but increased year - on - year overall [44]. - The soybean inventory of oil mills has reached a new high, and the soybean meal inventory continues to increase [45]. - The unexecuted contracts of oil mills have decreased from the high level due to the reduced demand for holiday stocking [47]. - The soybean crushing volume of oil mills remains high, and the soybean meal production in July increased year - on - year [49]. - The import cost of Brazilian soybeans has declined with the fall of US soybeans, and the futures profit has fluctuated slightly [51]. - The pig inventory is on the rise, the sow inventory is flat year - on - year and slightly decreased month - on - month [53]. - The pig price has declined again recently, and the piglet price remains weak [55]. - The proportion of large pigs in China has increased, and the cost of secondary fattening of pigs has increased slightly [57]. - The domestic pig - raising profit has deteriorated recently [59].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the main cotton contract 01 was under pressure at 14,000, oscillated downward, and hit a new short - term low. The "Golden September and Silver October" peak season is one - third over, and the market is sluggish. With new cotton about to be listed in large quantities, the hedging pressure is increasing. The main 01 contract faces significant resistance around 14,000 above, showing a short - term weak oscillation trend [5][6]. - There are both positive and negative factors in the market. Positive factors include reduced previous China - US additional tariffs and lower commercial inventory year - on - year, along with enhanced expectations for the "Golden September and Silver October" consumption peak season. Negative factors involve ongoing trade negotiations, currently high export tariffs to the US, a decline in overall foreign trade orders, increased inventory, and the impending large - scale listing of new cotton [7]. 3. Summary by Catalog 3.1 Previous Day Review (Weekly Review) - The main cotton contract 01 was under pressure at 14,000, oscillated downward, and hit a new short - term low. The national cotton output is expected to be 7.22 million tons, with Xinjiang hitting a new high. According to multiple reports, different institutions have different forecasts for the 2025/26 cotton production, consumption, and ending inventory. In August, textile and clothing exports were $26.54 billion, a 5% year - on - year decrease. China's cotton imports in August were 70,000 tons, a 51.6% year - on - year decrease, while cotton yarn imports were 130,000 tons, an 18.18% year - on - year increase [5]. 3.2 Daily Tips - The "Golden September and Silver October" peak season is one - third over, and the market is performing sluggishly. The textile and clothing export data in August was not ideal. New cotton is about to be listed in large quantities, increasing the hedging pressure. The main 01 contract has significant resistance around 14,000 above, showing a short - term weak oscillation trend [6]. 3.3 Today's Focus - Positive factors: Reduced previous China - US additional tariffs, lower commercial inventory year - on - year, and enhanced expectations for the "Golden September and Silver October" consumption peak season. - Negative factors: Ongoing trade negotiations, currently high export tariffs to the US, a decline in overall foreign trade orders, increased inventory, and the impending large - scale listing of new cotton [7]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - USDA's global cotton production forecast for 2025/26 is 25.622 million tons, consumption is 25.872 million tons, and ending inventory is 15.925 million tons. ICAC's 2025/26 global production forecast is 25.9 million tons, consumption is 25.6 million tons, and ending inventory is 17.1 million tons. The Ministry of Agriculture's 2025/26 production forecast is 6.36 million tons, imports are 1.4 million tons, consumption is 7.4 million tons, and ending inventory is 8.22 million tons [5][12][14][15]. 3.5 Position Data No position data is presented in the provided report.

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-09-22甲醇早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 多空关注 3 基本面数据 4 检修状况 甲醇2601： 1.前期停车装置恢复：内蒙古东华等。 1、基本面：多空并存下，预计本周国内甲醇市场或震荡整理为主。内地方面，随着部分下游用户节前备货进入尾声， 传统下游需求或弱化，以及假期临近运输受限贸易商持货意愿不强，另外港口高库存对其周边地区均有一定制约，后期 内地甲醇上涨或有一定压力。但同时产区甲醇工厂库存紧张，贸易商做空谨慎，以及运费上涨对销区价格有一定托底， 预计内地甲醇回调空间同样有限。港口方面，短期看，新兴下游烯烃装置重启和节前备货对市场尚有支撑；中期看，港 口累库预计持续至10月，但伊朗开工下降和国内旺季需求有潜在利多； ...