交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 碳酸锂期货早报 2025年11月5日 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点 | | | 供给端来看 ， 需求端来看 | 上周碳酸锂产量为21080吨 环比减少1 07% ， . , 上周磷酸铁锂样本企业库存为104979吨 环比增加0 | 高于历史同期平均水平 61% 上周三元材 | 。 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | ， 料样本企业库存为18890吨 | ， . 环比增加1 60% ， . 。 | , | | | | | | 成本端来看 | 外购锂辉石精矿成本为79630元/吨 日环比减少0 98% | 生产所得为 | | | | 1 | 基本面: | ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 棉花早报——2025年11月5日 大越期货投资咨询部 王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询证号： Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 棉花： 1、基本面：ICAC11月报：25/26年度产量2540万吨，消费2500万吨。USDA9月报：25/26年度 产量2562.2万吨，消费2587.2万吨，期末库存1592.5万吨。海关：9月纺织品服装出口244.2 亿美元，同比下降1.4%。9月份我国棉花进口10万吨，同比减少18.7%；棉纱进口13万吨，同 比增加18.18%。农村部10月25/26年度：产量636万吨，进口140万吨，消费740万吨，期末库 存822万吨。偏空。 2、基差：现货3128b全国均价14841，基差1306（01合约），升水期 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 菜粕早报 2025-11-05 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 ✸菜粕观点和策略 菜粕RM2601：2460至2520区间震荡 1.基本面：菜粕冲高回落，利好消化和技术性震荡整理，市场回归震荡等待加拿大油菜籽进 口反倾销裁定尚待最终结果。菜粕现货需求旺季过去，但库存维持低位支撑盘面，加上 中加贸易磋商仍变数，盘面短期受豆粕影响维持区间震荡。中性 2.基差：现货2610，基差113，升水期货。偏多 3.库存：菜粕库存1.75万吨，上周1.8万吨，周环比减少2.78%，去年同期2.2万吨，同比减 少20.45%。偏多 4.盘面：价格在20日均线上方且方向向上。偏多 5.主力持仓：主力多单减少，资金流 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Views - Due to heightened concerns about high valuations, the US stock market experienced a "Black Tuesday," leading to a decline in gold and silver prices. The risk appetite decreased, and the rebound strength of both gold and silver prices was weak. In the medium to long term, there was a slight shift to a bearish trend, with limited upside potential. Gold prices are expected to fluctuate, and the silver premium has expanded to 300 yuan/gram [4][5]. - After Trump took office, the world entered a period of extreme turmoil and change. The inflation expectation shifted to an economic recession expectation, making it difficult for gold prices to decline. However, the support for gold prices has significantly weakened recently [9]. - Silver prices still mainly follow gold prices. The concern about tariffs has a stronger impact on silver prices, and there is a risk of an enlarged increase [13]. Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day's Review - **Gold**: The US three major stock indexes closed down across the board, European three major stock indexes closed mixed, US bond yields fell collectively, the 10 - year US bond yield dropped 2.72 basis points to 4.083%, the US dollar index rose 0.34% to 100.21, the offshore RMB depreciated against the US dollar to 7.1352, and COMEX gold futures fell 1.81% to $3941.30 per ounce. The gold futures price was 915.58, the spot price was 912.55, with a basis of - 3.03, indicating the spot was at a discount to the futures. The gold futures warehouse receipts were 87,816 kilograms, unchanged. The 20 - day moving average was upward, and the K - line was below the 20 - day moving average. The main net position was long, but the main long positions decreased [4]. - **Silver**: Similar to gold, the US stock market's "Black Tuesday" led to a decline in silver prices. COMEX silver futures fell 2.40% to $46.90 per ounce. The silver futures price was 11,238, the spot price was 11,219, with a basis of - 19, indicating the spot was at a discount to the futures. The Shanghai silver futures warehouse receipts were 665,610 kilograms, with a daily increase of 6,759 kilograms. The 20 - day moving average was upward, and the K - line was below the 20 - day moving average. The main net position was long, and the main long positions increased [5]. 2. Daily Tips - **Today's Focus**: A series of events and data releases are scheduled, including the release of the Bank of Japan's September monetary policy meeting minutes, the New Zealand Reserve Bank's press conference on the semi - annual financial stability report, the potential attendance of US President Trump at a hearing for the US Supreme Court's key "tariff ruling," and various PMI data from China, the US, and Europe, as well as the US October ADP employment data [15]. 3. Fundamental Data - **Gold**: The support for gold prices has weakened due to the improvement of factors such as the Fed's interest rate cut and Sino - US tariff concerns. The logic is that after Trump took office, the world entered a period of turmoil, and the inflation expectation shifted to an economic recession expectation. But currently, the support factors have changed [9]. - **Silver**: Silver prices mainly follow gold prices. The concern about tariffs has a stronger impact on silver prices, and there are both positive and negative factors affecting it. Positive factors include global turmoil, the existence of shadow Fed's significant interest rate cut expectations, tense situations in Russia - Ukraine and the Middle East leading to a resurgence of inflation, and the support from the photovoltaic and technology sectors. Negative factors include the increasing expectation of a halt to interest rate cuts, the Fed's internal divergence, the under - expected European fiscal expansion, and the expectation of Russia - Ukraine cease - fire negotiations [13][14]. 4. Position Data - **Gold**: The net long position of the main gold holders decreased. For example, on November 4, 2025, the long position was 171,616, the short position was 69,501, and the net position was 102,115, showing a decrease compared to November 3, 2025 [31]. - **Silver**: The net long position of the main silver holders decreased. On November 4, 2025, the long position was 319,340, the short position was 252,370, and the net position was 66,970, also showing a decrease compared to November 3, 2025 [33]. - **ETF Positions**: The SPDR gold ETF position fluctuated and decreased, while the silver ETF position fluctuated and increased and remained higher than the same period in the past two years [36][39]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The Shanghai gold warehouse receipts increased slightly, the COMEX gold warehouse receipts continued to decrease but remained at a high level, the Shanghai silver warehouse receipts increased slightly and were at the lowest level in the past six years, and the COMEX silver warehouse receipts stopped falling with silver being transferred from New York to London [40][41][43].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 豆粕早报 2025-11-05 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 ✸豆粕观点和策略 豆粕M2601：2980至3040区间震荡 1.基本面：美豆冲高回落，市场等待中国采购美豆进展和技术性震荡整理，美豆短期偏强震 荡等待中美贸易协议执行后续和美国大豆产区收割天气进一步指引。国内豆粕冲高回落， 美豆走势带动和技术性震荡整理，但需求短期处于淡季和现货价格贴水压制盘面反弹高 度，短期或维持震荡格局。中性 2.基差：现货2970（华东），基差-45，贴水期货。偏空 3.库存：油厂豆粕库存115.3万吨，上周105.46万吨，环比增加9.33%，去年同期98.41万吨， 同比增加17.16%。偏 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The long - term divergence between domestic and international sugar prices is unsustainable. There is significant pressure above 5500 for the main contract 01 of Zhengzhou sugar. The probability of short - sellers re - entering the market increases, suggesting a short - term volatile and bearish outlook [6][9]. Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day's Review No relevant content provided. 2. Daily Tips - **Fundamentals**: Brazil's central - southern region produced 3601.6 million tons of sugar in the current season as of the first half of October, a year - on - year increase of 0.9%. Different institutions have different forecasts for the 25/26 global sugar supply: Czarnikow raised the surplus forecast to 740 million tons; StoneX predicted a surplus of 277 million tons; ISO expected a supply gap of 23.1 million tons, significantly reduced from the previous forecast. In 2025, China's sugar - related data showed a complex situation: by the end of August 2025, the national cumulative sugar production in the 24/25 season was 1116.21 million tons, and the cumulative sugar sales were 1000 million tons with a sales rate of 89.6%. In September 2025, China imported 55 million tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 15 million tons, while the import of syrup and premixed powder decreased by 13.51 million tons to 15.14 million tons. Overall, the fundamental situation is bearish [4][5]. - **Basis**: The spot price in Liuzhou is 5730, with a basis of 249 for the 01 contract, indicating a premium over futures, which is bullish [6]. - **Inventory**: As of the end of August in the 24/25 season, the industrial inventory was 116 million tons, a neutral situation [6]. - **Market Chart**: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average, which is bullish [6]. - **Main Position**: The position is bearish, with the net short position increasing, and the main trend is bearish [6]. - **Likely Factors**: Bullish factors include good domestic consumption, reduced inventory, increased syrup tariffs, and the change of the US cola formula to use sucrose. Bearish factors include increased global sugar production, expected supply surplus in the new season, the foreign sugar price falling below 15 cents per pound, and the opening of the import profit window leading to increased import impact [7]. 3. Today's Focus No relevant content provided. 4. Fundamental Data - **Global Sugar Supply Forecasts**: Different institutions have different predictions for the 25/26 global sugar supply. For example, the ISO in September 2025 predicted a supply gap narrowing to 20 million tons; StoneX in the same month expected a surplus of 277 million tons; Czarnikow in August 2025 forecast a surplus of 620 million tons (also mentioned 750 million tons elsewhere); Datagro in September 2025 predicted a surplus of 153 million tons; Covrig Analytics in August 2025 expected a surplus of 420 million tons; Alvean/Louis Dreyfus in July 2025 forecast a surplus of 40 million tons; Green Pool in July 2025 predicted a surplus of 115 million tons [36]. - **China's Sugar Supply and Demand Balance Sheet**: From 2024/25 to 2025/26, China's sugar - related data such as sugar - cane and beet planting areas, yields, sugar production, imports, consumption, and price ranges are relatively stable. The import volume is expected to be 500 million tons, and the consumption is expected to be 1590 million tons in 2025/26. The international sugar price is predicted to be in the range of 16.5 - 21.5 cents per pound, and the domestic sugar price is expected to be between 5800 - 6500 yuan per ton [38]. - **Imported Raw Sugar Processing Cost**: In late October 2025, the average price of raw sugar was about 14.23 cents per pound, and the cost of out - of - quota imported sugar was about 5086 yuan per ton. Due to the continuous decline of international sugar prices, the import profit was considerable [44]. 5. Position Data No relevant content provided.

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪镍&不锈钢早报—2025年11月5日 大越期货投资咨询部 祝森林 从业资：F3023048 投资咨询证：Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 沪镍 每日观点 1、基本面：外盘继续回落，考验15000一线支撑。产业链上，镍矿价格坚挺，菲律宾雨季慢慢来临，招 标价格坚挺，海运费维稳。镍铁价格继续回落，成本线松动下移。不锈钢库存小幅回升，金九银十后去 库存化再受考验。原生镍海内外持续垒库。新能源汽车产销数据良好，三元电池装车有所回升，但总体 提振有限。中长线过剩格局不变。偏空 2、基差：现货121800，基差2100，偏多 3、库存：LME库存252750，+0，上交所仓单30952，-254，偏空 4、盘面：收盘价收于20均线以下，20均线向下，偏空 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空减，偏空 6、结论：沪镍2512：震荡偏弱运行，考验成本支撑。 不锈钢 每日观点 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 PTA&MEG早报-2025年11月5日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 投资咨询资格证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 今日关注 基本面数据 5 PTA 每日观点 PTA： 1、基本面：昨日PTA期货震荡整理，现货市场商谈氛围一般，现货基差松动。贸易商商谈为主。本周及下周在01贴水75附近有 成交，价格商谈区间在4495~4545附近。11月下在01贴水72~75成交，12月初在01贴水67有成交。今日主流现货基差在01-75。中 性 3、库存：华东地区合计库存49.8万吨，环比增少1.7万吨 偏空 6、预期：近期现货市场商谈氛围较为平淡，且多为贸易商商谈，聚酯工厂动作较少，现货基差区间波动，市场心态观望，价格 方面，预计短期内跟随成本端震荡为主，关注装置变动情况。 2、基差：现货4525，0 ...

铁矿石： 1、基本面：钢厂铁水产量开始减少，供应端本月到港水平有所降低，总体供需宽松，港口库存减少，市场 将出台粗钢压减政策，贸易战缓和；中性 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证号： Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 铁矿石早报（2025-11-5） 每日观点 1. 后期发货量增加。 2. 终端需求依旧弱势。 铁矿石港口现货价格 2、基差：日照港PB粉现货折合盘面价825，基差49；日照港巴混现货折合盘面价846，基差70，现货升水期 货；偏多 3、库存：港口库存15272.93万吨，环比增加，同比减少；中性 4、盘面：价格在20日线下方,20日线向下；偏空 5、主力持仓：铁矿主力持仓净多，空翻多；偏多 6、预期：国内需求降低，去产能的计划冲击市场，高位震荡思路 利多： 利空： 1.铁水产量保持高位。 2.港口库存减少 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 焦煤焦炭早报（2025-11-5） 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 焦煤： 1、基本面：主产地炼焦煤供应趋紧，煤矿严控超产，各地区环保安全严格。然下游焦炭市场继续向好， 焦企开工保持稳定，煤矿出货速度普遍加快，影响煤价向好发展。山西大矿线上起拍价上升后多溢价成 交，线上竞拍少有流拍，叠加资源供应紧张，下游采购积极；偏多 2、基差：现货市场价1430，基差177；现货升水期货；偏多 3、库存：钢厂库存781.1万吨，港口库存295万吨，独立焦企库存819.3万吨，总样本库存1895.4万吨， 较上周减少76.2万吨；偏多 4、盘面：20日线向上，价格在20日线上方；偏多 5、主力持仓：焦煤主力净多，多减；偏多 6、预期：部分钢厂接受焦炭第三轮涨价，焦企利润有所修复，开工积极 ...