1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - side of lithium carbonate showed a decrease last week, with a production of 20,744 tons, a 3.82% week - on - week reduction but still above the historical average. The demand - side saw a decrease in the inventory of sample enterprises of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials. Cost - side analysis indicates that the cost of externally purchased spodumene concentrate remained flat, while the cost of lithium mica increased. The overall situation shows a tight supply - demand balance, with the market influenced by news - driven sentiment oscillations [8]. - The expected supply of lithium carbonate in the next month is predicted to decline, with production and imports decreasing by 16.31% and 11.02% respectively compared to the previous month. However, the demand is expected to strengthen, and inventory may be depleted. The price of lithium carbonate 2605 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 141,920 - 155,200 [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views - **Fundamentals**: Supply decreased last week, demand - side inventory declined, and cost - side conditions varied. The cost of externally purchased spodumene concentrate was 141,645 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged daily, resulting in a loss of 5,050 yuan/ton. The cost of externally purchased lithium mica was 140,647 yuan/ton, a 2.70% daily increase, also with a loss. The production cost of the recycling end was generally higher than that of the ore end, while the quarterly cash production cost of the salt lake end was significantly lower, with sufficient profit margins and strong production motivation [8]. - **Basis**: On February 12th, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 142,500 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract was - 6,920 yuan/ton, indicating a spot discount to the futures [8]. - **Inventory**: The smelter inventory was 18,356 tons, remaining unchanged week - on - week and below the historical average. Downstream inventory increased by 1.91% week - on - week and was above the historical average. Other inventories decreased by 4.44% week - on - week and were above the historical average. The total inventory decreased by 2.39% week - on - week and was below the historical average [8]. - **Disk**: The MA20 was downward, and the futures price of the 05 contract closed below the MA20 [8]. - **Main Position**: The main position was net short, and short positions increased [8]. - **Expectation**: In February 2026, lithium carbonate production and imports are expected to decline, while demand is expected to strengthen, and inventory may be depleted. The price of lithium carbonate 2605 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 141,920 - 155,200 [8]. 3.2 Market Overview - **Price and Basis**: The prices of various lithium compounds, including lithium carbonate, lithium hydroxide, and related upstream products, showed different degrees of change. For example, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 3.26% to 142,500 yuan/ton, and the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased by 3.35% to 139,000 yuan/ton [14]. - **Supply - side Data**: The weekly operating rate remained unchanged at 87.14%. The daily production cost of spodumene remained flat at 141,645 yuan/ton, while the daily production cost of lithium mica increased by 2.70% to 140,647 yuan/ton. The monthly total production of lithium carbonate decreased by 11.49% to 26,950 tons [17]. - **Demand - side Data**: The monthly production of lithium iron phosphate decreased by 5.00% to 325,200 tons, and the monthly export of lithium iron phosphate decreased by 47.82% to 4,028,745 kilograms. The monthly total battery loading volume increased by 4.92% to 98,100 GWh [17]. 3.3 Supply - **Lithium Ore**: The price of lithium ore, production, and import volume showed different trends. The supply - demand balance of domestic lithium ore showed fluctuations, with a balance of 12,364 LCE in January 2026 [25][28]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The weekly operating rate of lithium carbonate production from different raw materials and the monthly production and import volume were presented. The supply - demand balance of lithium carbonate also showed fluctuations, with a balance of 2,693 physical tons in January 2026 [32][40]. - **Lithium Hydroxide**: The weekly capacity utilization rate, monthly production, export volume, and supply - demand balance of lithium hydroxide were analyzed. The supply - demand balance of lithium hydroxide was - 1,361 physical tons in January 2026 [43][45]. 3.4 Cost and Profit of Lithium Compounds - The cost and profit of externally purchased spodumene concentrate, lithium mica concentrate, and various recycling production methods for lithium carbonate were analyzed. The profit and cost of lithium hydroxide production by different methods, as well as the profit of related processing and conversion, were also presented [48][50][53]. 3.5 Inventory - The weekly inventory of lithium carbonate in smelters and the total inventory, as well as the monthly inventory of lithium hydroxide by source, were shown [56]. 3.6 Demand - **Lithium Battery - Power Battery**: The price, production, loading volume, and export volume of power batteries were analyzed. The monthly production of power battery cells and the monthly loading volume showed different trends [58]. - **Lithium Battery - Energy Storage**: The inventory, winning bids, operating rate, production, and cost of energy - storage batteries were presented [60]. - **Ternary Precursor**: The price, cost, profit, processing fee, capacity utilization rate, production, and supply - demand balance of ternary precursors were analyzed [63][66]. - **Ternary Material**: The price, cost, profit, processing fee, operating rate, production, and inventory of ternary materials were analyzed [70][72]. - **Phosphorus Iron/Phosphorus Iron Lithium**: The price, production cost, profit, capacity, operating rate, production, and export volume of phosphorus iron and phosphorus iron lithium were presented [74][77]. - **New Energy Vehicle**: The production, sales, export volume, sales penetration rate, retail - wholesale ratio, and dealer inventory of new energy vehicles were analyzed [82][83][86].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided about the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply side shows that in February 2026, the domestic refinery asphalt production plan is 1.023 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.30%. The weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt samples is 26.1266%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.20 percentage points. The refinery has reduced production this week, alleviating supply pressure, and it is expected to further reduce supply pressure next week [8]. - On the demand side, the current demand is lower than the historical average. The heavy - traffic asphalt start - up rate is 24.5%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.04 percentage points; the construction asphalt start - up rate is 3.3%, remaining unchanged month - on - month; the modified asphalt start - up rate is 4.6163%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.10 percentage points; the road modified asphalt start - up rate is 9%, a month - on - month decrease of 5.00 percentage points; the waterproofing membrane start - up rate is 15%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.00 percentage points [8]. - In terms of cost, the daily asphalt processing profit is - 29.73 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 40.00%. The weekly Shandong refinery delayed coking profit is 81.8643 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 5.51%. The asphalt processing loss has decreased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking has increased. Crude oil prices remain stable, and it is expected that the cost support will remain stable in the short term [8]. - The basis on February 12 shows that the Shandong spot price is 3,210 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 04 contract is - 133 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures, which is bearish [8]. - Regarding inventory, the social inventory is 938,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.16%; the in - plant inventory is 583,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.15%; the port diluted asphalt inventory is 1.01 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 20.24%. Social inventory continues to accumulate, in - plant inventory continues to deplete, and port inventory continues to accumulate, which is bullish [8]. - On the trading board, MA20 is upward, and the futures price of the 04 contract closes above MA20, which is bullish [8]. - The main positions are net short, with an increase in short positions, which is bearish [8]. - Overall, the refinery's recent production plan has been reduced, alleviating supply pressure. Affected by the off - season, demand is sluggish and fails to meet expectations. Inventory continues to deplete. Crude oil prices remain stable, and cost support remains stable in the short term. It is expected that the futures price will fluctuate within a narrow range in the short term, with the asphalt 2604 fluctuating in the range of 3,308 - 3,378 [8]. 3. Section - by - Section Summaries 3.1. Asphalt Market Overview - Futures closing prices: The prices of most contracts decreased. For example, the 04 contract price decreased from 3,373 to 3,343, a decrease of 0.89% [15]. - Basis: The basis of most contracts changed, with the 04 contract basis changing from - 163 to - 133, a change of - 18.40% [15]. - Some inter - month spreads: The 3 - 6 spread decreased from - 12 to - 21, a change of 75.00%; the 3 - 9 spread decreased from 19 to 5, a change of - 73.68% [15]. - Registered warehouse receipts: The Shanghai Futures Exchange's registered warehouse receipts increased from 48,290 to 53,070, an increase of 9.90% [15]. - Weekly inventory: Social inventory increased to 938,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.16%; in - plant inventory decreased to 583,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.16%; port diluted asphalt inventory increased to 1.01 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 20.24% [17]. - Weekly start - up rate: The Shandong refinery start - up rate decreased to 23.5%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.49%; the national heavy - traffic asphalt start - up rate decreased to 26.1266%, a month - on - month decrease of 4.39% [17]. - Weekly production and loss: The sample enterprise production decreased to 436,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.39%; the weekly maintenance volume increased to 1.03 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.78% [17]. - Weekly shipment volume: The national shipment volume decreased to 211,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.33%; the Shandong shipment volume decreased to 33,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 23.26%; the East China shipment volume increased to 72,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 17.03% [17]. - Asphalt coking profit: The daily asphalt profit is - 29.73 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 40.55%; the weekly delayed coking asphalt spread is 81.8643 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 405.51% [17]. - Downstream demand start - up rate: The heavy - traffic asphalt start - up rate decreased to 24.5%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.92%; the construction asphalt start - up rate remained at 3.3%, unchanged month - on - month; the modified asphalt start - up rate decreased to 4.62%, a month - on - month decrease of 19.24%; the road modified asphalt start - up rate decreased to 9.00%, a month - on - month decrease of 35.71%; the waterproofing membrane start - up rate decreased to 15.00%, a month - on - month decrease of 16.67% [17]. 3.2. Asphalt Futures Market - Basis Trend The report provides the historical trends of the Shandong and East China asphalt basis from 2020 to 2026, which helps to analyze the relationship between spot and futures prices [20][22]. 3.3. Asphalt Futures Market - Spread Analysis - Main contract spread: The report shows the historical trends of the 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contract spreads from 2020 to 2026, which is useful for spread trading analysis [24][25]. - Asphalt - crude oil price trend: It presents the historical price trends of asphalt, Brent crude oil, and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil from 2020 to 2026, helping to understand the relationship between asphalt and crude oil prices [28]. - Crude oil cracking spread: It shows the historical trends of the asphalt - SC, asphalt - WTI, and asphalt - Brent crude oil cracking spreads from 2020 to 2026, which is important for analyzing the profitability of asphalt production [30][31][32]. - Asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil price ratio trend: It provides the historical trends of the asphalt - SC and asphalt - fuel oil price ratios from 2020 to 2026, which can assist in analyzing the relative value of different products [34][35]. 3.4. Asphalt Spot Market - Market Price Trends in Different Regions The report shows the historical price trends of heavy - traffic asphalt in East China and Shandong from 2020 to 2026, which helps to understand the regional price differences of asphalt [37][38]. 3.5. Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - Profit analysis: - Asphalt profit: It presents the historical trends of asphalt profit from 2019 to 2026, which is useful for analyzing the profitability of asphalt production [40][41]. - Coking - asphalt profit spread trend: It shows the historical trends of the coking - asphalt profit spread from 2020 to 2026, which can help to understand the profit difference between coking and asphalt production [43][44][45]. - Supply side: - Shipment volume: It shows the historical trends of weekly shipment volume from 2020 to 2026, which helps to analyze the supply situation of asphalt [46][47]. - Diluted asphalt port inventory: It presents the historical trends of domestic diluted asphalt port inventory from 2021 to 2026, which is important for understanding the inventory situation of raw materials [49][50]. - Production: It shows the historical trends of weekly and monthly asphalt production from 2019 to 2026, which helps to analyze the supply capacity of asphalt [52][53]. - Marru oil price and Venezuelan crude oil monthly production trend: It presents the historical trends of Marru oil price and Venezuelan crude oil monthly production from 2018 to 2026, which is useful for understanding the impact of raw material supply on asphalt production [56][58]. - Refinery asphalt production: It shows the historical trends of refinery asphalt production from 2019 to 2026, which helps to analyze the production capacity of refineries [59][60]. - Start - up rate: It shows the historical trends of weekly asphalt start - up rate from 2023 to 2026, which helps to analyze the production activity of the asphalt industry [62][63]. - Maintenance loss estimate: It presents the historical trends of maintenance loss estimate from 2018 to 2026, which is important for understanding the impact of maintenance on asphalt production [65][66]. - Inventory: - Exchange warehouse receipts: It shows the historical trends of exchange warehouse receipts (total, social inventory, and in - plant inventory) from 2019 to 2026, which helps to understand the inventory situation in the futures market [68][69][70]. - Social inventory and in - plant inventory: It presents the historical trends of social inventory (70 samples) and in - plant inventory (54 samples) from 2022 to 2026, which helps to understand the inventory situation in the spot market [72][73]. - In - plant inventory inventory ratio: It shows the historical trends of in - plant inventory inventory ratio from 2018 to 2026, which is useful for analyzing the inventory management of refineries [75][76]. - Import and export situation: - Asphalt export and import trends: It shows the historical trends of asphalt export and import from 2019 to 2025, which helps to understand the international trade situation of asphalt [78][79]. - South Korean asphalt import price difference trend: It presents the historical trends of the South Korean asphalt import price difference from 2020 to 2026, which is important for analyzing the competitiveness of imported asphalt [82][83]. - Demand side: - Petroleum coke production: It shows the historical trends of petroleum coke production from 2019 to 2025, which helps to understand the demand for petroleum coke in the asphalt industry [84][85]. - Apparent consumption: It presents the historical trends of apparent consumption from 2019 to 2025, which helps to analyze the overall demand for asphalt [87][88]. - Downstream demand: - Highway construction traffic fixed - asset investment trend: It shows the historical trends of highway construction traffic fixed - asset investment from 2020 to 2025, which helps to understand the demand for asphalt in highway construction [90][91]. - New local special bond trend: It presents the historical trends of new local special bonds from 2019 to 2025, which is important for analyzing the investment in infrastructure construction [92]. - Infrastructure investment completion year - on - year: It shows the historical trends of infrastructure investment completion year - on - year from 2020 to 2024, which helps to understand the growth rate of infrastructure investment [92]. - Downstream machinery demand trend: It presents the historical trends of asphalt concrete paver sales, excavator monthly working hours, domestic excavator sales, and road roller sales from 2019 to 2025, which helps to understand the demand for asphalt in the construction machinery industry [94][95][97]. - Asphalt start - up rate: - Heavy - traffic asphalt start - up rate: It shows the historical trends of heavy - traffic asphalt start - up rate from 2019 to 2025, which helps to analyze the production activity of heavy - traffic asphalt [99][100]. - Asphalt start - up rate by use: It presents the historical trends of construction asphalt start - up rate and modified asphalt start - up rate from 2019 to 2025, which helps to understand the production situation of different types of asphalt [102][103]. - Downstream start - up situation: It shows the historical trends of shoe - material SBS modified asphalt start - up rate, shoe - material TPR start - up rate, road modified asphalt start - up rate, and waterproofing membrane modified asphalt start - up rate from 2021 to 2026, which helps to understand the start - up situation of downstream industries [105][106][107]. - Supply - demand balance sheet: It shows the monthly supply - demand balance sheet of asphalt from 2024 to 2026, including asphalt monthly production, import volume, export volume, downstream demand, social inventory, in - plant inventory, and diluted asphalt port inventory, which helps to analyze the overall supply - demand situation of asphalt [109][110].

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - There is no industry investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - **For Soybean Meal (M2605)**: It is expected to oscillate between 2780 and 2840. Influenced by the upward trend of US soybeans, spot price premium, and a mix of news, it may maintain a range - bound oscillation in the short term. The market is affected by factors like China's soybean procurement and South American weather [9]. - **For Soybeans (A2605)**: It is predicted to fluctuate between 4620 and 4740. Supported by the upward movement of US soybeans and strong domestic spot prices and demand, but restricted by factors such as the implementation of the China - US trade agreement and the arrival of imported Brazilian soybeans after the Spring Festival, there is a risk of a pull - back after a rise [11]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Daily Hints - There is no specific content for daily hints in the report. 3.2 Recent News - The preliminary agreement on China - US tariff negotiations is short - term positive for US soybeans, but the quantity of China's soybean purchases and US soybean weather are uncertain. The US market is oscillating above the 1000 - point mark, awaiting further guidance on US soybean growth and harvest, imported soybean arrivals, and subsequent China - US trade negotiations [13]. - The arrival volume of imported soybeans in China will continue to decline in Q1. The soybean inventory of oil mills remained high in January. With relatively normal weather for soybean planting and growth in South America, soybean meal has returned to a range - bound oscillation in the short term [13]. - The decrease in domestic hog farming profits has led to low expectations for hog replenishment. The demand for soybean meal remained strong in January, supporting the price of soybean meal. Affected by the upward trend of US soybeans and the recovery of soybean meal demand, it will maintain a range - bound oscillation pattern [13]. - The soybean meal inventory of domestic oil mills remains high. There is still a possibility of speculation on US soybean产区 weather, and influenced by the preliminary agreement on China - US trade negotiations, soybean meal will maintain a range - bound oscillation in the short term, awaiting the clarification of US soybean production and subsequent China - US trade negotiations [13]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Concerns 3.3.1 Soybean Meal - **Bullish Factors**: The preliminary China - US trade negotiation agreement is short - term positive for US soybeans; the soybean meal inventory of domestic oil mills is not under pressure; there are still uncertainties in the weather of South American soybean - growing areas [14]. - **Bearish Factors**: The total arrival volume of imported soybeans in China remained high in January; with normal weather, South American soybeans are expected to have a bumper harvest [14]. - **Main Logic**: The market is focused on the impact of US soybean harvest weather and the follow - up of the preliminary China - US trade agreement [14]. 3.3.2 Soybeans - **Bullish Factors**: The cost of imported soybeans supports the bottom of the domestic soybean market; the expected recovery of domestic soybean demand supports the price expectation of domestic soybeans [15]. - **Bearish Factors**: Brazil is expected to have a bumper soybean harvest, and China has increased its purchases of Brazilian soybeans; the increase in the production of new - season domestic soybeans suppresses the price expectation of beans [15]. - **Main Logic**: The market is focused on the impact of US soybean weather and the China - US trade tariff game [15]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal Transaction Data**: From February 4th to 12th, the transaction average price of soybean meal fluctuated between 3117 - 3151 yuan, and the transaction volume decreased from 26.17 million tons to 1.3 million tons. The transaction price of rapeseed meal fluctuated between 2430 - 2450 yuan, and the transaction volume was mostly 0, with a maximum of 3 million tons on February 6th. The average price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal gradually widened from 667 yuan to 701 yuan [16]. - **Soybean and Meal Futures and Spot Prices**: From February 5th to 12th, the futures prices of soybeans (including bean 1 and bean 2) and soybean meal generally showed an upward trend, and the spot prices also had corresponding changes [18]. - **Soybean and Meal Warehouse Receipt Statistics**: From February 3rd to 12th, the number of bean 1 warehouse receipts remained relatively stable, with a slight decrease on February 6th; the number of bean 2 warehouse receipts appeared on February 5th and then decreased; the number of soybean meal warehouse receipts increased on February 4th and then remained relatively stable [20]. - **Global and Domestic Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheets**: Provide data on the supply - demand balance of global and domestic soybeans from 2016 to 2025, including harvest area, initial inventory, production, total supply, total consumption, ending inventory, and inventory - to - consumption ratio, reflecting the long - term supply - demand situation of soybeans [32][33]. - **Soybean Planting and Harvest Progress in Different Regions**: Include the planting and harvest progress of soybeans in Argentina (2023/24, 2024/25, 2025/26), the United States (2024), and Brazil (2024/25, 2025/26), showing the development of soybean production in different regions [34][39][42]. - **USDA's Monthly Supply - Demand Reports in the Past Six Months**: Provide data on planting area, yield per unit, production, ending inventory, new - bean exports, crushing volume, and the production of Brazilian and Argentine soybeans from July 2025 to February 2026 [44]. 3.5 Positioning Data - There is no specific content for positioning data in the report. 3.6 Other Market Conditions - **Soybean Meal Market**: Soybean meal futures have returned to an oscillation, while the spot price is relatively stable, and the spot premium remains at a relatively high level. The soybean crushing volume of oil mills has returned to a high level, and the soybean meal production in December increased year - on - year. The unfulfilled contracts of oil mills continue to decline, indicating a weakening of stocking demand. The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal has narrowed, and the price difference of the 2605 contract has shown slight fluctuations [23][25][27][29]. - **Imported Soybean and Hog Market**: The weekly export inspection volume of US soybeans has decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year. The arrival volume of imported soybeans has entered a low level at the beginning of the year and has recently decreased year - on - year. The soybean inventory of oil mills continues to decline, while the soybean meal inventory has rebounded from a low level. The import cost of Brazilian soybeans has oscillated downward following US soybeans, and the profit on the futures market has shown slight fluctuations. The hog inventory has slightly increased year - on - year, while the sow inventory has decreased year - on - year and slightly declined month - on - month. The hog price has shown slight fluctuations recently, while the piglet price has slightly rebounded. The proportion of large hogs in China has increased, and the cost of secondary fattening of hogs has continued to rise. Domestic hog farming has achieved a small profit, and the pig - to - grain ratio and feed - to - meat ratio have fallen to a low level [45][47][54][56][62][64].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - Rapeseed meal RM2605 will oscillate in the range of 2290 - 2350. Affected by the improvement of China - Canada trade relations, it will be weak in the short - term and maintain range - bound in the medium - term. After the overall negative factors are digested, it will still maintain an oscillating pattern [9]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Prompt - Rapeseed meal RM2605 oscillates in the range of 2290 - 2350. Its fundamental situation is neutral, with basis indicating a premium, low inventory being positive, price above the 20 - day moving average, but an increase in short positions of the main force and capital outflow being negative [9]. 2. Recent News - Domestic aquaculture has entered the off - season, and the supply in the spot market is expected to be tight in the short - term. The demand is decreasing, suppressing the market. The export of Canadian rapeseed is affected by trade issues, reducing the expected domestic supply. With the visit of the Canadian Prime Minister to China, China - Canada trade relations have improved, and the import of Canadian rapeseed is expected to resume. Global rapeseed production has increased this year. The impact of the Russia - Ukraine conflict on rapeseed production is relatively offset, but geopolitical conflicts may still support commodities [11]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors - Bullish factors: Good demand for Chinese rapeseed meal is expected after the Spring Festival, and oil mills have no pressure on rapeseed meal inventory. Bearish factors: Domestic demand for rapeseed meal is currently in the off - season, and China's import of Canadian rapeseed is about to resume. The current main logic is that the market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expected arrival of imported Canadian rapeseed [12]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Trading data**: From February 4th to 12th, the average transaction price of rapeseed meal was around 2430 - 2450 yuan, and the average transaction price of soybean meal was around 3117 - 3151 yuan. The average price difference between soybean and rapeseed meal was around 667 - 701 yuan [13]. - **Price data**: From February 5th to 12th, the price of rapeseed meal futures (main 2605 contract) rose from 2238 to 2302 yuan, and the spot price rose from 2430 to 2450 yuan [15]. - **Warehouse receipt data**: From February 4th to 12th, the rapeseed meal warehouse receipts were all 0 [17]. - **Supply - demand balance data**: In the domestic rapeseed supply - demand balance sheet from 2016 to 2025, the harvest area, output, and inventory consumption ratio have changed over the years. In the domestic rapeseed meal supply - demand balance sheet during the same period, the output, total supply, and inventory consumption ratio also show different trends [19][21]. 5. Position Data - Not provided in a summarized way, but it is mentioned that the short positions of the main force have increased and the capital has flowed out [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report Industrial Silicon - Supply decreased last week with a 13.41% week - on - week reduction to 71,000 tons; demand also decreased by 20.00% week - on - week to 60,000 tons, remaining sluggish. - Polycrystalline silicon inventory is at a high level of 349,000 tons; organic silicon inventory is at a low level of 47,200 tons with a production profit of 2,570 yuan/ton and a comprehensive开工率 of 64.02%, flat week - on - week and below the historical average. - Aluminum alloy ingot inventory is at a high level of 67,400 tons. - In Xinjiang, the production cost of sample oxygen - passed 553 silicon decreased by 0.00% week - on - week to 9,769.7 yuan/ton, and the cost support is rising during the dry season. - On February 12th, the spot price of non - oxygen - passed silicon in East China was 9,200 yuan/ton, with a basis of 865 yuan/ton for the 05 contract, indicating a spot premium over the futures. - Social inventory increased by 1.44% week - on - week to 562,000 tons; sample enterprise inventory decreased by 2.52% week - on - week to 200,800 tons; main port inventory decreased by 1.44% week - on - week to 136,000 tons. - The MA20 is downward, and the 05 contract price closed below the MA20. - The main position is net short, with a decrease in short positions. - It is expected that industrial silicon 2605 will fluctuate in the range of 8,240 - 8,430 [6]. Polycrystalline Silicon - Supply remained flat last week, with a production of 20,100 tons. The scheduled production for February is expected to be 79,700 tons, a 20.93% decrease compared to the previous month. - Demand is in a continuous decline. The production of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components is all decreasing. - The average cost of N - type polycrystalline silicon materials is 40,830 yuan/ton, with a production profit of 11,420 yuan/ton. - On February 12th, the price of N - type dense materials was 52,250 yuan/ton, with a basis of 4,235 yuan/ton for the 05 contract, indicating a spot premium over the futures. - Weekly inventory is at a historical high of 349,000 tons, increasing by 2.34% week - on - week. - The MA20 is upward, and the 05 contract price closed below the MA20. - The main position is net long, with a decrease in long positions. - It is expected that polycrystalline silicon 2605 will fluctuate in the range of 47,940 - 50,090 [8]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views Industrial Silicon - Bullish factors: Rising cost support and manufacturers' plans for production cuts. - Bearish factors: Slow recovery of post - holiday demand and a supply - strong and demand - weak situation in the downstream polycrystalline silicon market. - Main logic: Capacity clearance, cost support, and demand increment [11][12]. Polycrystalline Silicon - Supply is expected to continue to decrease, and demand is in a continuous recession. Cost support remains stable [8]. 3.2 Fundamental/Positioning Data Industrial Silicon - **Supply - side**: Last week's supply was 71,000 tons, with a 13.41% week - on - week decrease. - **Demand - side**: Last week's demand was 60,000 tons, with a 20.00% week - on - week decrease. - **Inventory**: Social inventory increased by 1.44% week - on - week to 562,000 tons; sample enterprise inventory decreased by 2.52% week - on - week to 200,800 tons; main port inventory decreased by 1.44% week - on - week to 136,000 tons. - **Cost**: In Xinjiang, the production cost of sample oxygen - passed 553 silicon decreased by 0.00% week - on - week to 9,769.7 yuan/ton. - **Basis**: On February 12th, the basis of the 05 contract was 865 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures. - **Positioning**: The main position is net short, with a decrease in short positions [6]. Polycrystalline Silicon - **Supply - side**: Last week's production was 20,100 tons, remaining flat week - on - week. The scheduled production for February is 79,700 tons, a 20.93% decrease compared to the previous month. - **Demand - side**: The production of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components is all decreasing. - **Inventory**: Weekly inventory is 349,000 tons, increasing by 2.34% week - on - week, at a historical high. - **Cost**: The average cost of N - type polycrystalline silicon materials is 40,830 yuan/ton, with a production profit of 11,420 yuan/ton. - **Basis**: On February 12th, the basis of the 05 contract was 4,235 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures. - **Positioning**: The main position is net long, with a decrease in long positions [8]. 3.3 Market Overview Industrial Silicon - Futures prices of most contracts decreased slightly. For example, the 01 contract decreased by 1.27% to 8,930 yuan/ton. - Spot prices of various types of silicon remained stable, such as the price of non - oxygen - passed 553 silicon in East China at 9,200 yuan/ton. - Inventory data showed a mixed trend, with social inventory increasing and sample enterprise inventory and main port inventory decreasing [15]. Polycrystalline Silicon - Futures prices of most contracts were relatively stable, with only a few showing small declines. - The prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components remained stable. - Weekly silicon wafer production increased by 5.74% to 12.9 GW, and weekly silicon wafer inventory decreased by 22.06% to 26.5 GW. - Weekly battery cell inventory increased by 1.53% to 9.31 GW. - Monthly component production decreased by 9.04% to 35.2 GW, domestic inventory decreased by 51.73% to 24.76 GW, and European inventory increased by 9.27% to 34.2 GW [17]. 3.4 Other Aspects - The report also includes various trend charts and data on industrial silicon and polycrystalline silicon, such as price - basis and delivery product spread trends, inventory trends, production and capacity utilization trends, cost trends, and downstream industry trends (including organic silicon, aluminum alloy, and polycrystalline silicon downstream industries) [19][22][25]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The domestic methanol market is expected to fluctuate within a range this week as the holiday approaches. The inland market is entering the pre - holiday rest period, with demand shrinking and supply remaining sufficient. The port market is expected to oscillate at the bottom before the festival, and it is recommended to reduce risk exposure. The price of MA2605 is expected to fluctuate between 2210 - 2270 [5]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - The fundamentals of methanol 2605 suggest that the inland methanol market is in a pre - holiday rest period. Demand from traditional downstream devices like formaldehyde is decreasing, and supply is sufficient with low inventory in some enterprises. The port market has experienced significant price fluctuations and is now in a range - bound state. The expected price range for MA2605 this week is 2210 - 2270 [5]. - The basis shows that the spot price in Jiangsu is 2220 yuan/ton, with a 05 - contract basis of - 11, indicating that the spot is at a discount to the futures [5]. - As of February 12, 2026, the total social inventory of methanol in East and South China ports is 94.27 tons, a decrease of 1.87 tons from the previous period. The total available methanol in coastal areas is 46.08 tons, a decrease of 0.31 tons [5]. - The 20 - day moving average is flat, and the price is below the average [5]. - The main positions are net short, with short positions increasing [5]. 2. Multi - and Short - Term Concerns - **Likely Positive Factors**: Some devices are shut down or operating at reduced capacity; Iranian methanol production is at a low level, and imports in February are expected to shrink; previous inventory in production areas is low, and some enterprises are even restricting sales; some downstream users are still stocking up before the festival [6]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: Domestic methanol production is at a high level, with no supply shortage; as the Spring Festival approaches, downstream formaldehyde production is shutting down, weakening demand for raw materials; the main olefin devices at ports are shut down, significantly weakening local demand; most downstream users have completed pre - holiday stocking, leading to a short - term decline in demand [7]. 3. Fundamental Data - **Price Data**: In the spot market, the price of thermal coal in the Bohai Rim is 682 yuan/ton, and the price of methanol in various regions has minor changes. The futures closing price is 2231 yuan/ton, a decrease of 17 yuan/ton from the previous day. The registered warehouse receipts are 8032, an increase of 450, and the effective forecasts are 0, a decrease of 450 [8]. - **Spread Structure**: The basis is - 21 yuan/ton, an increase of 12 yuan/ton from the previous day. The import spread is 34 yuan/ton, an increase of 18 yuan/ton [8]. - **Operating Rate**: The weighted average national operating rate is 74.90%, a decrease of 3.81% from the previous week. The operating rates in different regions have also decreased to varying degrees [8]. - **Inventory Situation**: The inventory in East China ports is 56.03 tons, a decrease of 0.33 tons, and the inventory in South China ports is 38.24 tons, a decrease of 1.54 tons [8]. 4. Maintenance Status - **Domestic Methanol Plants**: Many domestic methanol plants are under maintenance or have reduced production, including those in Shaanxi, Qinghai, Ningxia, Xinjiang, and other regions. The maintenance time and loss vary by enterprise [55]. - **Foreign Methanol Plants**: In Iran, some plants are in the process of restarting or operating at a low level. In other countries such as Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, and the United States, the operation status of methanol plants varies [56]. - **Olefin Plants**: Some olefin plants are under maintenance, such as the Shaanxi Qingcheng Clean Energy plant, while others are operating stably or at a low load [57].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Supply pressure has increased this week, and it is expected to increase slightly in production scheduling next week as maintenance is expected to decrease [8]. - Current demand may remain sluggish, with the overall downstream operating rate at 41.42%, a 3.33 - percentage - point decrease from the previous period, but still higher than the historical average [8]. - The cost of the calcium carbide method and the ethylene method has strengthened, and the overall cost has strengthened. The production scheduling may be under pressure [9]. - The overall inventory is at a neutral level. PVC2605 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4888 - 4988 [10]. - The main logic is that the overall supply pressure is strong, and the domestic demand recovery is not smooth [14]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply - side**: In January 2026, PVC production was 2.14863 million tons, a 0.53% month - on - month increase. This week, the capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises was 79.26%, with no change from the previous period. The production of calcium carbide enterprises was 348,330 tons, a 0.34% month - on - month increase, and that of ethylene enterprises was 136,960 tons, a 0.62% month - on - month increase [8]. - **Demand - side**: The overall downstream operating rate was 41.42%, a 3.33 - percentage - point decrease from the previous period; the downstream profile operating rate was 29.13%, a 2.39 - percentage - point decrease; the downstream pipe operating rate was 33%, a 4 - percentage - point decrease; the downstream film operating rate was 62.14%, a 3.56 - percentage - point decrease; the downstream paste resin operating rate was 77.24%, a 3.73 - percentage - point decrease. All are higher than the historical average. Shipping costs are expected to rise, and domestic PVC export prices are not competitive [8]. - **Cost - side**: The profit of the calcium carbide method was - 658.58 yuan/ton, with a 11.00% reduction in losses from the previous period; the profit of the ethylene method was 102.91 yuan/ton, a 91.60% month - on - month increase; the double - ton spread was 1,820.75 yuan/ton, a 0.10% month - on - month increase. All are lower than the historical average [9]. - **Other aspects**: On February 12, the price of East China SG - 5 was 4,830 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract was - 108 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures. The factory inventory was 287,700 tons, a 0.85% month - on - month decrease; the social inventory was 592,860 tons, a 1.40% month - on - month increase. The MA20 is upward, and the futures price of the 05 contract closed below the MA20. The main position is net short, and the short position decreased [11]. - **Leveraging factors**: Supply restart, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export benefits [13]. - **Negative factors**: Overall supply pressure rebounds, high inventory with slow consumption, and weak domestic and external demand [13]. 3.2 PVC Market Overview - The report provides yesterday's market overview data, including enterprise indicators, some monthly spreads, inventory, downstream operating rates, profits, costs, etc., and their changes from the previous period [16]. 3.3 PVC Futures Market - **Base - difference trend**: The report presents the base - difference trend of PVC futures, including the base - difference, PVC East China market price, and the closing price of the main contract over a long - term period [20]. - **Futures market situation**: It includes the price, trading volume, and position changes of PVC futures, such as the opening price, highest price, lowest price, closing price, MA10, MA5, MA20, MA60, MA120, and the position changes of the top 5 and top 20 seats [23]. - **Spread analysis**: It shows the spread analysis of the main contract, including the 1 - 9 spread and 5 - 9 spread in 2024 and 2025 [26]. 3.4 PVC Fundamental Analysis - **Calcium carbide method - related aspects**: - **Lancoke**: It includes the price, cost - profit, operating rate, inventory, and daily output of Lancoke [29]. - **Calcium carbide**: It includes the mainstream price, cost - profit, operating rate, maintenance loss, and production of calcium carbide in Shaanxi [32]. - **Liquid chlorine and raw salt**: It includes the price, production of liquid chlorine, and the price and monthly production of raw salt [35]. - **Caustic soda**: It includes the price, cost - profit, operating rate, weekly production, maintenance volume, apparent consumption, inventory, and flake caustic soda inventory of 32% caustic soda in Shandong [38][40]. - **Chlor - alkali cost - profit**: It includes the chlor - alkali gross profit, cost, and double - ton spread [40]. - **PVC supply trend**: It includes the weekly capacity utilization rate of the calcium carbide method and ethylene method, the profit of the calcium carbide method and ethylene method, daily production, weekly maintenance volume, weekly capacity utilization rate, and weekly production of PVC [43][45]. - **Demand trend**: It includes the daily sales volume of PVC traders, weekly pre - sales volume, weekly production - sales ratio, apparent consumption, downstream average operating rate, and operating rates of profiles, pipes, films, and paste resin of PVC. It also includes the gross profit, production, cost, and apparent consumption of paste resin, as well as real estate investment completion, housing construction area, new construction area, commercial housing sales area, and housing completion area [48][50][56]. - **Inventory**: It includes the exchange warehouse receipts, calcium carbide factory warehouse, ethylene factory warehouse, social inventory, and production enterprise inventory days [60]. - **Ethylene method**: It includes the import volume of vinyl chloride and dichloroethane, PVC export volume, FOB spread of the ethylene method, and import spread of vinyl chloride [62]. - **Supply - demand balance sheet**: It shows the monthly supply - demand situation of PVC from December 2024 to January 2026, including export, demand, social inventory, factory inventory, production, import, and supply - demand difference [65].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating was provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint The report indicates that the short - term oil price will fluctuate weakly. The possibility of military actions disrupting supply in the near term has decreased due to Trump's statement on the Iran issue. The IEA's prediction of a large - scale annual average supply surplus in 2026 also weighs on the oil price. The domestic market is slightly weaker than the international market, and the market is waiting for Spring Festival consumption and travel data. The SC2604 contract is expected to trade in the range of 455 - 465, and there are long - term opportunities to short at high levels [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Prompt - **Fundamentals**: Trump hopes to reach an agreement with Iran in the next month, and the US Treasury will issue more licenses to relax sanctions on Venezuela's energy sector. The IEA has lowered the forecast for global oil demand growth in 2026 due to high oil prices, which is bearish. The basis shows that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price, which is bullish. US API and EIA inventories increased significantly in the week ending February 6, and Cushing inventories also increased, which is bearish. The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the price is near the average, which is neutral. As of February 3, the long positions of WTI and Brent crude oil increased, which is bullish [3]. - **Expectation**: Short - term oil prices will fluctuate weakly. The SC2604 contract will trade in the 455 - 465 range, and there are long - term opportunities to short at high levels [3]. 3.2 Recent News - **Ukraine - Russia Peace Talks**: Ukrainian President Zelensky said that the US needs to put more pressure on Russia if it wants the conflict to end in summer. Russia is still considering whether to participate in the proposed peace talks in Miami, and the previous two rounds of talks in Abu Dhabi did not yield results [5]. - **US - Iran Relations**: Trump said the US must reach an agreement with Iran, otherwise the situation will be "very serious". He is willing to negotiate for as long as necessary and warned of a possible rapid development in the situation in the next month [5]. - **IEA Monthly Report**: The forecast for global crude oil demand growth in 2026 has been lowered to 850,000 barrels per day from 930,000 barrels per day. The global oil supply in 2026 will exceed demand by 3.73 million barrels per day, up from 3.69 million barrels per day in the previous report [5]. 3.3 Long - Short Concerns - **Bullish Factors**: Sanctions on Russia and the tense situation in Iran [6]. - **Bearish Factors**: The IEA's concern about oil supply surplus and the alleviation of supply problems in some oil - producing countries [6]. - **Market Driver**: Short - term focus on geopolitical factors, and long - term risk of oversupply [6]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Futures Market**: The settlement prices of Brent crude oil, WTI crude oil, SC crude oil, and Oman crude oil have changed, with Brent and WTI down by 2.71% and 3.16% respectively, SC up by 1.07%, and Oman up by 0.82% [7]. - **Spot Market**: The prices of various types of crude oil in the spot market have also changed. The price of WTI dropped by 100%, while the prices of other types of crude oil had relatively small changes [9]. - **Inventory**: US API crude oil inventory increased by 13.4 million barrels in the week ending February 6, and EIA inventory increased by 8.53 million barrels, exceeding the expected increase of 793,000 barrels. Cushing area inventory increased by 1.071 million barrels. The Shanghai crude oil futures inventory remained unchanged at 3.464 million barrels as of February 12 [3]. 3.5 Positioning Data - **WTI Crude Oil**: As of February 3, the net long position increased by 27,583 to 124,565 [16]. - **Brent Crude Oil**: As of February 3, the net long position increased by 31,332 to 278,249 [18].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The copper supply side is disrupted, with smelting enterprises reducing production and the scrap copper policy being relaxed. In January, the manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing prosperity. The overall situation is bullish. The spot price is 102160, and the basis is 170, showing a premium over the futures, which is neutral. On February 12, copper inventory increased by 4550 to 196650 tons, and the SHFE copper inventory increased by 15907 tons to 248911 tons last week, also neutral. The closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is moving downward, which is bearish. The main position is net long, but long positions are decreasing, which is bullish. Geopolitical disturbances still exist, and the copper price has reached a new high and is currently fluctuating at a high level. Attention should be paid to position control during the holiday [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily View - **Fundamentals**: Supply - side disruptions, smelting production cuts, relaxed scrap copper policy. January manufacturing PMI at 49.3%, down 0.8 ppts from last month, manufacturing prosperity declined; bullish [2]. - **Basis**: Spot price 102160, basis 170, premium over futures; neutral [2]. - **Inventory**: On Feb 12, copper inventory up 4550 to 196650 tons, SHFE copper inventory up 15907 tons to 248911 tons last week; neutral [2]. - **Disk**: Closing price below 20 - day MA, 20 - day MA moving down; bearish [2]. - **Main Position**: Main net long position with long positions decreasing; bullish [2]. - **Expectation**: Geopolitical disturbances, copper price at new high, high - level fluctuations. Control positions during holidays [2]. 3.2 Recent利多利空Analysis - **利多Factors**: Global policy easing and tight mining supply, geopolitical disturbances in Russia - Ukraine and Israel - Iran, Fed rate cuts, slow mining production increase, and production cuts in Freeport Indonesia's mining area [3][4]. - **利空Factors**: Unexpected US comprehensive tariffs, global economic pessimism, and high copper prices suppressing downstream consumption [4]. 3.3 Inventory - related - **Exchange Inventory**: The SHFE copper inventory increased by 15907 tons to 248911 tons last week [2]. - **Bonded Area Inventory**: Bonded area inventory rebounded from a low level [13]. 3.4 Processing Fee - Processing fee declined [15]. 3.5 Supply - Demand Balance - In 2024, there is a slight surplus, and in 2025, it is in a tight - balance situation. The China annual supply - demand balance table shows production, import, export, apparent consumption, actual consumption, and supply - demand balance data from 2018 - 2024 [19][21].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The overall situation of the oil and fat market shows that prices are in a state of shock consolidation. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the supply is stable. The Sino - US relationship is tense, which puts pressure on the price of US soybeans. The inventory of Malaysian palm oil is neutral, and demand is improving. Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the B50 plan is expected to be implemented in 2026. The domestic oil and fat fundamentals are neutral, and the import inventory is stable [2][3][4] - The current main logic of the market revolves around the relatively loose global oil and fat fundamentals. There are also some factors affecting the market, with the US soybean inventory - to - sales ratio remaining around 4%, indicating tight supply, while the high historical price of oil and fat, continuous accumulation of domestic oil and fat inventory, weak macro - economy, and high expected production of relevant oils and fats are the negative factors [5] Summary by Related Catalogs Supply - **Soybean - related supply**: - On January 9, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1020000 tons, a decrease of 60000 tons from the previous period and an increase of 14.7% year - on - year [2] - Information on soybean meal inventory is mentioned, but no specific data is provided [8] - Information on oil - mill soybean crushing is mentioned, but no specific data is provided [10] - **Palm oil supply**: - In December, the production of Malaysian palm oil decreased by 5.46% month - on - month to 1.8298 million tons, exports increased by 8.55% month - on - month to 1.3165 million tons, and the end - of - month inventory increased by 7.59% month - on - month to 3.0506 million tons. As of January, the export data of Malaysian palm oil increased by 29% month - on - month. On January 9, the port inventory of palm oil was 736000 tons, an increase of 2200 tons from the previous value and an increase of 46% year - on - year [2][3][4] - **Rapeseed - related supply**: - On January 9, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 250000 tons, a decrease of 20000 tons from the previous value and a decrease of 44% year - on - year [4] - Information on rapeseed inventory is mentioned, but no specific data is provided [21] - **Total domestic oil and fat supply**: Information on total domestic oil and fat inventory is mentioned, but no specific data is provided [23] Demand - **Soybean - related demand**: - Information on the apparent consumption of soybean oil is mentioned, but no specific data is provided [12] - Information on the apparent consumption of soybean meal is mentioned, but no specific data is provided [14] Price Forecast - Soybean oil Y2605 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 7900 - 8300 [2] - Palm oil P2605 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8600 - 9000 [3] - Rapeseed oil OI2605 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8900 - 9300 [4]